uncertainty

US Fed leaves interest rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty | Inflation

The central bank held rates steady despite backlash from US President Donald Trump.

The United States Federal Reserve has left its benchmark rate unchanged despite mounting pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates.

On Wednesday, the Fed said it will leave its short-term rate unchanged at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent.

The central bank’s decision was largely in line with expectations, and it has not cut interest rates since December.

The decision comes as policymakers weigh signs of a weakening economy. US retail sales numbers fell more than expected in its report from the US Department of Commerce yesterday. Last week’s jobless claims report from the US Department of Labour came in at its highest in eight months at 248,000.

However, the last jobs report showed the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2 percent, indicating the labour market, while slowing, remains fairly stable.

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated,” the central bank said in a statement.

“Fed Chair Jerome Powell has little urgency to ease. But if any easing were to have occurred, it would have been hugely stimulative, and would have lowered US debt interest expense,” Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, told Al Jazeera.

Policymakers are looking at the looming and consistently shifting changes to Trump’s tariff policies as well as the escalating tensions in the Middle East. While oil prices were on the decline before Israel’s attack last week on Iran and its retaliatory strikes, the concerns about a closure of the Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalate have fueled concerns that prices could go up in the coming weeks.

Trump criticises Powell

Before the rate announcement, Trump expressed disappointment in the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady in the past few months.

“Powell’s too late,” he said, referring to his desire for rate cuts. “I call him ‘too late Powell’ because he’s always too late. I mean, if you look at him, every time I did this I was right 100 percent, he was wrong,” Trump said.

He added that he “may have to force something” but it is not clear what Trump meant by that.

He also suggested that he should lead the central bank. “Maybe I should go to the Fed,” Trump said. “Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I’d do a much better job than these people.”

Powell’s term is set to expire next May, and Trump has recently walked back his rhetoric on firing the central bank head.

“What I’m going to do is, you know, he gets out in about nine months, he has to, he gets fortunately terminated … I would have never reappointed him, [former President Joe] Biden reappointed him. I don’t know why that is, but I guess maybe he was a Democrat … he’s done a poor job,” Trump said.

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Bolivia’s presidential election faces growing uncertainty

Evo Morales (L) drives a tractor at a quinoa planting on his farm in Isallavi during his presidency in 2012. A joint report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program warned that acute food insecurity in Bolivia is expected to worsen in the coming months File Photo by Martin Alipaz/EPA-EFE

June 18 (UPI) — Political and social tensions in Bolivia are intensifying two months ahead of the general elections Aug. 17, raising concerns the vote could be marred by violence, deep polarization and institutional instability.

The unrest began after Bolivia’s Constitutional Court barred former President Evo Morales from running again, citing term limits. His supporters responded with protests and roadblocks across several regions.

The protests have left six people dead, including police officers and farmers. Nearly two weeks of roadblocks and military deployments in key areas have drawn comparisons to some of Bolivia’s darkest periods of political unrest.

Óscar Hassenteufel, president of Bolivia’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal, or TSE, warned in a recent news conference that “dark forces” are trying to prevent the election from taking place. He said public distrust is rising as electoral institutions may not be strong enough to withstand pressure in an increasingly polarized climate.

Despite the TSE’s assurances that the election date remains set after talks with all three branches of government, public uncertainty persists.

The absence of a preclusion law — which would block indefinite legal challenges to the electoral process — has raised concerns. The TSE has warned that without such legislation, the election could be suspended or annulled.

“The country is facing various challenges, and evidently, today our country’s democracy is at risk,” President Luis Arce said at a news conference in Santa Cruz. “Democracy must win. Social peace must win in our country against all destabilizing attempts to stop the election.”

Bolivia is grappling with a deepening economic crisis. Annual inflation was 18.46% in May, the highest level since 2008. Prices for basic goods, such as beef and chicken, have climbed nearly 24% over the past year. Protests over fuel and currency shortages have further intensified social unrest.

A joint report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program warned that acute food insecurity in Bolivia is expected to worsen in the coming months, driven by high inflation and declining foreign reserves.

“This is expected to further weaken import capacity and household purchasing power, limiting access to food,” the report said. It also warned that fuel shortages could disrupt agricultural activity and further reduce corn production, after already below-average harvest in 2024.

According to the U.N. report, as of October 2024, 2.2 million Bolivians — about 19% of the population — were experiencing acute food insecurity.

Any delay in the elections or attempt at electoral fraud could trigger widespread unrest in a country already strained by economic crisis and public distrust, political analyst Franklin Pareja said in an interview with eju.tv radio.

Pareja said rising frustration over the economic crisis has created strong expectations around the election, which many see as a potential turning point for the country.

“There is deep concern that everything in Bolivia is at risk and nothing is guaranteed,” he said.

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Middle East conflict adding to uncertainty amid trade tensions, IMF chief says

By&nbspPeggy Corlin&nbsp&&nbspOleksandra Vakulina

Published on 18/06/2025 – 18:37 GMT+2Updated
18:43

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The conflict in the Middle East will further worsen the global economic outlook, already strained by ongoing trade disputes, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (FMI) has told Euronews in an interview.

“Being hit by a trade war has consequences. We have projected a decline in global growth by half a percentage point,” Kristalina Georgieva said, adding: “What we witness now is more turbulence in the Middle East, which adds to uncertainty and therefore is bad for business.”

Since Donald Trump’s return to power as leader of the world’s largest economy, international trade has been disrupted by a wave of tariffs imposed by the US administration on its global partners.

Mexico and Canada were the initial targets, followed by a prolonged standoff between the US and China, which saw reciprocal tariffs between the pair soar to more than 100%.

On 2 April— a day he dubbed “Liberation Day”—Trump imposed tariffs on a wide range of countries, including the EU. He then declared a 90-day truce, set to expire on 9 July.

Negotiations are currently underway with the EU, which currently faces tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on cars, and 10% on all its exports to the US.

However, the director of the IMF, which is responsible for financial stability across the world and facilitate global trade, admitted that “the global economy has proven to be remarkably resilient to shocks, and that resilience continues.”

In her view, economic uncertainty is becoming the new normal.

“We live in a more shock-prone world, a world of higher uncertainty,” Georgieva said, adding: “For this world, countries need to work hard to be more resilient. Do reforms at home that would make your economies stronger.”

Georgieva, a former vice-president of the European Commission, also expressed optimism with the economic outlook despite the bleak growth figures.

She considered that the recent trade agreement between China and the US and the deal Trump has brokered with the UK to be good signs, saying: “We are in a better place.”

In an uncertain context, she also sees opportunities to be seized—an outlook shared by the European Commission, which is pursuing a strategy of diversifying its trading partners by expanding the number of trade agreements worldwide.

“In Europe, we see an increase in bilateral and plurilateral agreements, which I expect to be a big feature of the future of trade globally,” she told Euronews, adding that it is a great moment for Europe, “a defender of rules-based” global trade exchanges.

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As the summer harvest launches, uncertainty hangs over California fields

As the crucial summer harvest season gets underway in California’s vast agricultural regions, farmers and their workers say they feel whiplashed by a series of contradictory signals about how the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration might affect them.

California grows more than one-third of the country’s vegetables and more than three-quarters of the nation’s fruits and nuts in the fertile expanses of the Central Valley, Central Coast and other farming regions. The industry produced nearly $60 billion in goods in 2023, according to state figures — an output that depends heavily on the skilled labor of a workforce that is at least 50% undocumented, according to University of California studies.

Without workers, the juicy beefsteak tomatoes that are ripening and must be hand-harvested will rot on the vines. The yellow peaches just reaching that delicate blend of sweet and tart will fall to the ground, unpicked. Same with the melons, grapes and cherries.

That’s why, when federal immigration agents rolled into the berry fields of Oxnard last week and detained 40 farmworkers, growers up and down the state grew worried along with their workers.

Farm laborers, many of whom have lived and worked in their communities for decades, were terrified of being rounded up and deported, separated from their families and livelihoods. Farmers worried that their workforce would vanish — either locked up in detention centers or forced into the shadows for fear of arrest — just as their labor was needed most. Everyone wanted to know whether the raids in Oxnard were the beginning of a broader statewide crackdown that would radically disrupt the harvest season — which is also the period when most farmworkers earn the most money — or just a one-off enforcement action.

In the ensuing days, the answers have become no clearer, according to farmers, worker advocates and elected officials.

“We, as the California agricultural community, are trying to figure out what’s going on,” said Ryan Jacobsen, chief executive of the Fresno County Farm Bureau and a farmer of almonds and grapes. He added that “time is of the essence,” because farms and orchards are “coming right into our busiest time.”

After the raids in Ventura County last week, growers across the country began urgently lobbying the Trump administration, arguing that enforcement action on farm operations could hamper food production. They pointed to the fields around Oxnard post-raid, where, according to the Ventura County Farm Bureau, as many as 45% of the workers stayed home in subsequent days.

President Trump appeared to get the message. On Thursday, he posted on Truth Social that “our great farmers,” along with leaders in the hospitality industry, had complained that his immigration policies were “taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.”

He added that it was “not good” and “changes are coming!”

The same day, according to a New York Times report, a senior official with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement wrote regional ICE directors telling them to lay off farms, along with restaurants and hotels.

“Effective today, please hold on all work site enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels,” the official wrote.

Many in California agriculture took heart.

Then on Monday came news that the directive to stay off farms, hotels and restaurants had been reversed.

“There will be no safe spaces for industries who harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine ICE’s efforts,” Tricia McLaughlin, an assistant secretary for the Department of Homeland Security, said, according to the Washington Post. “Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to safeguard public safety, national security and economic stability.”

In California’s heartland, Jacobsen of the Fresno County Farm Bureau spoke for many farmers when he said: “We don’t have a clue right now.”

Asked Tuesday to clarify the administration’s policy on immigration raids in farmland, White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said the Trump administration is committed to “enforcing federal immigration law.”

“While the President is focused on immediately removing dangerous criminal illegal aliens from the country,” Jackson said, “anyone who is here illegally is liable to be deported.”

Still, Jacobsen and others noted, aside from the upheaval in Ventura County last week, agricultural operations in other parts of the state have largely been spared from mass immigration sweeps.

Workers, meanwhile, have continued to show up for work, and most have even returned to the fields in Ventura County.

There has been one notable outcome of last week’s raids, according to several people interviewed: Employers are reaching out to workers’ rights organizations, seeking guidance on how to keep their workers safe.

“Some employers are trying to take steps to protect their employees, as best they can,” said Armando Elenes, secretary treasurer of the United Farm Workers.

He said his organization and others have been training employers on how to respond if immigration agents show up at their farms or packinghouses. A core message, he said: Don’t allow agents on the property if they don’t have a signed warrant.

Indeed, many of the growers whose properties were raided in Ventura County appear to have understood that; advocates reported that federal agents were turned away from a number of farms because they did not have a warrant.

In Ventura County, Lucas Zucker, co-executive director of the Central Coast Alliance United for a Sustainable Economy, a group that has often been at odds with growers over issues such as worker pay and protections, underscored the unusual alliance that has forged between farmers and worker advocates.

Two days after the raids, Zucker read a statement condemning the immigration sweeps on behalf of Maureen McGuire, chief executive of the Ventura County Farm Bureau, an organization that represents growers.

“Farmers care deeply about their workers, not as abstract labor, but as human beings and valued community members who deserve dignity, safety and respect,” McGuire said in the statement. “Ventura County agriculture depends on them. California’s economy depends on them. America’s food system depends on them.”

Before reading the statement, Zucker evoked light laughter when he told the crowd: “For those of you familiar [with] Ventura County, you might be surprised to see CAUSE reading a statement from the farm bureau. We clash on many issues, but this is something where we’re united and where we’re literally speaking with one voice.”

“The agriculture industry and farmworkers are both under attack, with federal agencies showing up at the door,” Zucker said later. “Nothing brings people together like a common enemy.”

This article is part of The Times’ equity reporting initiative, funded by the James Irvine Foundation, exploring the challenges facing low-income workers and the efforts being made to address California’s economic divide.

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Addressing Uncertainty, Driving Change: The Innovators

Topping the priority list for our Innovators class of 2025 are addressing uncertainty, improving customer experience, and leveraging technology for broader applications.

Uncertain times call for innovative thinking and a greater focus on both future-proofing and resilience. Accordingly, many of the innovations this year’s award winners are putting in place focus on two imperatives: minimizing the risk of obsolescence or failure when facing unforeseen circumstances and developing greater agility to adapt and thrive in the face of future uncertainties and disruptions.

APIs continue to provide banks with ways to increase efficiency and improve customer experience, lowering the entry barrier for creating new services and introducing new business models. This year’s winners include API-based embedded-finance and open-banking solutions.

AI remains a critical enabler, driving innovation in areas such as chatbots, risk monitoring and detection, algorithms, automation, and internal GenAI customer service assistance.

Banking-app enhancements include budget management, onboarding processes, and the use of telemetry to enhance business management and data utilization.

Digital assets, encompassing a broad spectrum from conventional bonds to instruments backed by unique items like violins, are the rare emerging field that extends beyond the boundaries of traditional finance. Expanded use of digital assets is transforming payment processes. This year’s winners have been active in such areas as tokenization, integration of assets typically financed with bitcoin, and development of crypto-custody services.

Banking innovations are opening doors to expanded opportunities. Hyper-personalized lifestyle banking can now encompass services such as mobile phone access, insurance, mortgages, and even estate-management support. Broader applications of finance, including the linking of operational weather forecasts with commodity prices and improved monitoring of ESG performance, demonstrate how technology is expanding finance’s remit. Innovations addressing financial accessibility, unclaimed benefits solutions, and simplified access to credit underscore how financial inclusion remains a hotbed of innovation. Among our nonbank winners, meanwhile, are firms that support banks in everything from compliance to payments.

Banking innovation is by no means confined to the largest and most mature markets. Indeed, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East reported the highest number of financial innovations this year, thanks to a focus on meeting unmet needs, the ability to leapfrog legacy systems, a strong mobile-first culture, and a potentially supportive regulatory approach. These regions are likely to remain fertile ground for financial innovation as they strive for greater financial inclusion and leverage technology to address their specific economic and social challenges.

Innovation is proving a process of evolution for all banks, wherever they are located, leaving no margin for complacency if they want to remain competitive. Innovation for innovation’s sake, however, should be avoided as it is only by understanding user needs that banks can adopt and integrate new technologies that deliver innovations to genuinely benefit users and improve the customer experience.

The 2025 Innovator Winners

Financial Innovation
Global Winners
Innovation Africa
Africa
Innovation in banking
Asia-Pacific
Innovation in Banking CEE
Central & Eastern Europe
innovation in banking
Latin America
Innovation Middle East
Middle East
Innovators North America
North America
Innovators Western Europe
Western Europe

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Innovation In An Age of Uncertainty

Uncertainty continues to cloud the global economic horizon, with tariffs remaining a dominant con- cern in both political and financial circles. In the

United States, decisions by the Trump administration have increasingly been subject to legal scrutiny and challenged in court, and what’s legal one week may be overturned the next. As economists at BNP Paribas aptly describe it, the legal status of trade decisions moves like a yo-yo.

Meanwhile, formal and informal trade talks between sovereign nations continue moving up and down. Financial markets reflect this instability with sharp reactions. But for the corporate world, time doesn’t stop. Daily decisions must be made—regardless of the uncertainty hanging over long-term strategies. Questions abound: Will multinational infrastructure projects go ahead? Will financing for wind and alternative energy initiatives hold firm? These are difficult questions, and for many, the answers remain elusive. And yet, in this uncertainty, one sector shows remark- able resilience: innovation. In this issue, we’re proud to present our annual awards for innovation and innovators, along with a selection of some of the most dynamic innovation labs around the world. Unsurprisingly, artificial intelligence leads the way, both in concept and in real- world application. Many of the financial institutions and fintech firms recognized this year are not just adapting to the future—they are helping to shape it.

The innovations profiled by our global team of reporters and analysts are impressive on their own merits. But more striking is the broader trend they represent. Despite economic and political volatility, organizations across the financial and technology spectrum—banks, startups, consulting firms, and independent labs—are continuing to invest aggressively in R&D. Why? Because innovation is not a luxury. It’s a necessity.

This strong commitment to innovation suggests something profound: in uncertain times, looking forward becomes more important, not less. Innovation, in this context, is not merely a growth strategy—it’s a survival strategy. And in many ways, it proves to be counter-cyclical. When the present is unstable, thinking ahead becomes not just prudent, but essential.

Andrea Fiano | Editor At Large | [email protected]

June 2025

Access the digital edition.

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Chinese students in US grapple with uncertainty over Trump’s visa policies | Donald Trump News

Washington, DC – For Anson, hearing the news that Chinese student visas were the latest target of US President Donald Trump’s administration was “heartbreaking”.

The Chinese graduate student, who is studying foreign service at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera that he feels uncertain about the future of students like himself after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the US would begin to “aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields”.

“There is definitely a degree of uncertainty and anxiety observed amongst us,” Anson said, asking that only his first name be used.

The Trump administration has offered little further clarity on which students would be affected, with some observers seeing the two-sentence announcement, which also vowed to “revise visa criteria to enhance scrutiny” for future visa applicants from China and Hong Kong, as intentionally vague.

While 23-year-old Anson said he understood the US government had concerns about foreign influence and national security when it came to China, he was confused as to why the Trump administration’s new policy was potentially so wide reaching.

Most students from his homeland, he said, were just like the other more than one million students who study every year in the US, a country that is known both for its educational opportunities and for its “inclusivity and broad demographics”.

“It is heartbreaking for many of us to see a country built by immigrants becoming more xenophobic and hostile to the rest of the world,” he said, adding that he and other Chinese students in the US were still trying to decipher the policy shift.

‘Greater and greater suspicion’

It is not the first time the Trump administration has taken aim at Chinese students, with the US Department of Justice in 2018, during Trump’s first term, launching the so-called “China Initiative” with the stated aim of combatting “trade secret theft, hacking, and economic espionage”.

An MIT analysis instead showed the programme focused predominantly on researchers and academics of Chinese descent, in what critics said amounted to “racial profiling and fear mongering”. It was discontinued in February 2022 by the administration of former US President Joe Biden.

Since then, there has only been “greater and greater suspicion in the US, almost on a bipartisan basis, of various aspects of Chinese technology, actions by Beijing around the world, and now these concerns about surveillance and spying within the US”, according to Kyle Chan, a researcher on China at Princeton University.

That included a Republican-led congressional report in September 2024 that claimed hundreds of millions of US tax dollars – funneled through US-China partnerships at universities – helped Beijing develop critical technologies, including those related to semiconductors, artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, and nuclear capabilities.

But Chan, while acknowledging “genuine security concerns” exist, said the broad announcement from the Trump administration did not appear to actually address those concerns.

Instead, it has sent “shock waves of fear throughout university campuses across the country”, he said.

That uncertainty has been compounded by Trump’s recent pressure campaigns on US universities, which most recently involved a since-blocked revocation of Harvard University’s ability to enrol international students.

“I think the vagueness is part of the [Trump administration’s] strategy, because it is not about a concrete policy,” Chan told Al Jazeera. “I don’t think it’s really, at the end of the day, about national security and trying to find the few individuals who may pose a genuine risk.”

Instead, he saw the move as aimed at Trump’s political audience, those sitting at an “overlap between people who are very anxious about immigrants in general, and people who are very anxious about China”.

‘Tremendous disruption’

The administration has offered little clarity on the scope of the visa revocations, or how it will define students with “connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields”.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce gave few further specifics, saying only that the department “will continue to use every tool in our tool chest to make sure that we know who it is who wants to come into this country and if they should be allowed to come in”.

“The United States, I further can say here, will not tolerate the CCP’s exploitation of US universities or theft of US research, intellectual property or technologies to grow its military power, conduct intelligence collection or repress voices of opposition,” she said.

Despite the dearth of clarity, the eventual shape of the policy will determine just how “disruptive” it could be, according to Cole McFaul, a research analyst at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University.

He pointed to “real concerns about research security and about illicit IP [intellectual property] transfer” when it comes to Beijing, noting there have been a handful of documented cases of such activity in recent years.

“My hope is that this is a targeted action based on evidence and an accurate assessment of risk that takes into account the costs and the benefits,” McFaul said.

“My worry is that this will lead to broad-based, large-scale revocations of visas for Chinese students operating in STEM subjects,” he said, referencing the abbreviation for science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

McFaul noted that about 80 percent of the estimated 277,000 Chinese students who study in the US annually are in STEM subjects, in what he described as “an enormously important talent pipeline from China to the United States for the past 40 years”.

A vast majority of Chinese PhDs in STEM subjects – also about 80 percent – tend to stay in the US after their studies, in what McFaul described as another major benefit to the US.

“The question is, what counts as someone who’s working in a critical technology? Are life sciences critical? I would say ‘yes’. Are the physical sciences critical? I’d say ‘yes’. Is computer science critical? Is engineering critical?” McFaul said.

“So there’s a world where the vast majority of Chinese students are disallowed from studying in the United States, which would be an enormous loss and tremendous disruption for the United States science and technology ecosystem,” he said.

‘Generating unnecessary fear’

As the policy remains foggy, Chinese students in the US said they are monitoring the often fickle winds of the Trump administration.

Su, a 23-year-old applied analytics graduate student at Columbia University, said she swiftly changed her plans to travel home to China this summer amid the uncertainty.

“I was afraid if I go back to China, I won’t be able to come back to the US for when classes begin,” said Su, who asked to only use her last name given the “sensitive” situation.

“When Trump announces something, we never know if it’s going to be effective or not,” she told Al Jazeera. “It’s always changing”.

Deng, a graduate student at Georgetown who also asked that his full name not be used, said he broadly agreed that reforms were needed to address issues related to Chinese influence in US academia.

Those included intimidation of political dissidents, the spread of nationalist propaganda, and “oligarchy corruption”, he said.

But, in an email to Al Jazeera, he said the administration’s approach was misguided.

“The current measures not only do not achieve such goals,” he said, “but [are] also generating unnecessary fear even among the Chinese student communities that have long been fully committed to the development and enrichment of US society.”

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Volvo to cut 3,000 jobs amid trade uncertainty | Business and Economy

The layoffs come days after US President Donald Trump threatened 50 percent tariffs on EU goods.

Swedish automaker Volvo is set to cut 3,000 white-collar jobs amid restructuring efforts as prices begin to rise due to tariff-driven uncertainty.

The company announced the news on Monday. The layoffs come as the Swedish automaker tries to resurrect its rock-bottom share price and drum up better demand for its cars by restructuring part of its business and cutting costs.

CEO Hakan Samuelsson, who was recently brought back to the role after heading the company for a decade until 2022, unveiled a programme in April to slash costs by $1.9bn (18 billion Swedish crowns), including a substantial cut to Volvo’s white-collar staff, who make up 40 percent of its workforce.

“It’s white collar in almost all areas, including R&D  [research and development], communication, human resources,” Samuelsson told the Reuters news agency.

The layoffs represent around 15 percent of the company’s office staff, Volvo Cars said in a statement, and would incur a one-time restructuring cost of $160m (1.5 billion crowns).

Volvo Cars’ new CFO Fredrik Hansson told Reuters that while all of its departments and locations would be impacted, most of the redundancies will happen in Gothenburg.

“It’s tailored to make us structurally more efficient, and then how that plays out might vary a bit depending on the area. But no stone is left unturned,” Hansson said.

With most of its production based in Europe and China, Volvo Cars is more exposed to new United States tariffs than many of its European rivals, and has said it could become impossible to export its most affordable cars to the US.

The company said in a press release that it would finalise a new structural setup by the third quarter of this year.

Volvo withdrew its financial guidance as it announced its cost cuts last month, pointing to unpredictable markets amid weaker consumer confidence and trade tariffs causing turmoil in the global auto industry.

The layoff announcement comes only days after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50 percent tariff on imports from the European Union from June 1. On Monday, however, he backed away from that date, restoring a July 9 deadline to allow for talks between Washington and Brussels.

As a result, Volvo’s CEO said the move would make it harder for it to sell one of its electric vehicles (EVs) — the EX30 EV that is made in Belgium — in the US market.

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Lord Buffalo cancels European tour, citing immigration issues

Texas psych-Americana band Lord Buffalo has canceled its upcoming European tour after it claims that drummer Yamal Said was taken off a plane by border patrol agents on Monday.

“We are heartbroken to announce we have to cancel our upcoming European tour. Our drummer, who is a Mexican citizen and lawful permanent resident of the United States (green card holder) was forcibly removed from our flight to Europe by Customs and Border Patrol at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport on Monday May 12,” the band said in a Wednesday social media post.

According to the group, Said has not been released from custody.

“We are currently working with an immigration lawyer to find out more information and to attempt to secure his release,” the band continued in its post. “We are devastated to cancel this tour, but we are focusing all of our energy and resources on Yamal’s safety and freedom. We are hopeful that this is a temporary setback and that it could be safe for us to reschedule this tour in the future.”

Lord Buffalo later updated the message to announce that Said has secured legal representation.

According to a CBP spokesperson, Said was detained by U.S. Customs and Border Protection while aboard a May 12 flight heading outside of the U.S. due to allegedly having an active arrest warrant. He was subsequently turned over to local law enforcement.

The Times has reached out to Lord Buffalo for comment.

The Texas band is not the first musical act to claim they have needed to postpone or cancel shows due to immigration issues in recent months.

In April, British singer FKA twigs announced in an Instagram post that she had to cancel series of concerts for the month in North America — including a slot at Coachella 2025 — due to “ongoing visa issues.”

Earlier this month, Chicago’s Michelada Fest, a Spanish-language music festival that had acts scheduled from across the globe, was canceled due to concerns over artists’ visas.

“Due to the uncertainty surrounding artist visas and the rapidly changing political climate, we’re no longer able to guarantee the full experience we had dreamed up for you with all your favorite artists,” the festival’s organizers explained in a statement. “Although we tried to push through, it became clear that we wouldn’t be able to deliver the full lineup as planned.”

The organizers would go on to write that, as an independent outfit, Michelada Fest “can’t afford to take on a big risk with so much uncertainty ahead.”

Grupo Firme, Anitta, Danny Ocean, Tokischa and Luis R. Conriquez were scheduled to perform at the July festival.



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US-China Tariff Truce Triggers Transpacific Rush—But Uncertainty Lingers

A brief easing of tariffs between the US and China has set off a burst of transpacific trade activity, but deeper tensions and long-term supply chain disruptions continue to cloud the outlook.

A 90-day truce in the ongoing US-China trade war has sparked a rush to move goods across the Pacific, with businesses scrambling to take advantage of temporarily lowered tariffs.

President Donald Trump essentially backed down on a trade war that he started with China, reducing US duties on Chinese imports from a punishing 145% to 30%. China, meanwhile, slashed its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.

The short-term relief is already creating ripple effects as container carriers like Marseille, France-based CMA CGM and Hamburg, Germany-based Hapag-Lloyd reportedly praised the pause and expect to see a spike in bookings as businesses try to ship before the temporary pause ends.

“You weren’t going to be shipping anything from China to the US at 145%,” David Roche, president of financial analysis firm Quantum Strategy in Singapore, told Global Finance. “At 30%, something gets shipped—but far less than when we were at 8% before Trump took office.” Roche noted that a modest uptick in container traffic might soon appear in Port of Los Angeles bookings, which reflect demand about three weeks out.

But he cautioned: “My feeling is that we will see a small recovery, but not a big recovery, and you will still have empty shelves, and you will still have increased inflation in the US as a result of these tariffs.”

April inflation data offered a mixed picture. While year-over-year inflation cooled slightly to 2.3%—just under the 2.4% forecast—prices still rose 0.2% month-over-month, missing estimates of 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8%.

The scenario looks less bleak compared to last month when Fitch Ratings downgraded its 2025 global GDP forecast to 1.9% amid concerns about Trump’s escalating tariff policy. The firm’s chief economist, Brian Coulton, said in an analyst note on Tuesday that while the latest 90-day pause brings the US effective tariff rate down from 23% to 13%, it’s still far above the 2.3% level seen in 2024.

This does not mean that the trade war, “which is already having a tangible economic impact, is over,” Coulton said, citing remaining 10% baseline tariffs and industry-specific levies still in force.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists the US-China talks are part of a broader strategy of “economic decoupling for strategic necessities.” He emphasized that “generalized decoupling” is not US policy, but the administration remains focused on import substitution to reduce reliance on Chinese goods and bolster American manufacturing.

Even with the recent rollback, China remains the US’s most heavily tariffed trading partner. According to Fitch, the current ETR for Chinese imports stands at 31.8%, factoring in legacy duties on steel, autos, and a 10% baseline tariff applied broadly. Certain electronics like smartphones and computers were excluded from the most recent round of tariffs.

While the temporary deal may cool tensions and boost transpacific shipping in the short run, experts warn that the structural damage to global supply chains—and the strategic rift between the world’s two largest economies—is unlikely to heal in just 90 days.

Analysts for Singapore-based UOB Group struck a more optimistic tone following the pause in US-China trade tensions, forecasting a near-term economic boost for China as exporters rush to front-load production and shipments to the US during the window.

“Suffice to say, we now see some upside potential to our 2025 growth forecast for China of 4.3%,” UOB analysts said in a note, though they said that any formal revision will wait for further data. Despite the temporary reprieve, UOB expects China to continue focusing on domestic resilience and export diversification, supported by ongoing policy efforts.

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Here’s how you can handle your finances during economic uncertainty

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Financial markets are volatile with consumer confidence at its lowest level in five years – as economists point to a higher risk of recession.

It all adds up to financial uncertainty for a lot of people. Roughly half of US adults say that President Trump’s trade policies will increase prices “a lot,” according to a recent poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

About half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the possibility of the US economy going into a recession in the next few months.

Matt Watson, CEO of Origin, a financial planning app, says it’s a period of uncertainty for everyone, including experts.

“No one has a crystal ball. No one, even the people that do this professionally and have done it very successfully for many years, know what’s going to happen,” he said.

If you’re worried about how economic uncertainty might affect you, here are some expert recommendations:

Take stock of your finances

The first step to preparing for uncertain financial times is knowing your starting point, Watson said. Look at your budget or your debit card expenses so you can understand how much you spend every month.

“Take stock of where you are across a number of different categories,” Watson said.

Looking at the state of your savings and investments can also provide you with an idea of your overall financial health.

Find where you can cut back

The more nonessential expenses you can pause, the more you can save for an emergency.

“Your choice is really to cut now or cut later, so it’s easier to cut now and have a cushion,” Watson said.

If you’re having difficulty finding where to cut back, Jim Weil, managing partner at Private Vista, a financial planning firm, recommends that you divide your expenses into three buckets: needs, wants and wishes. Wishes are larger expenses that can be postponed, such as a big vacation.

For the time being, cut back expenses from the wishes section until you feel like your finances are in a good place.

Take care of your mental health

Between news about tariffs and job losses, you might feel your anxiety rising. So, it’s important that you protect your mental health while also caring about your finances said Courtney Alev, consumer advocate at Credit Karma. Sometimes, reading too much news that can affect your finances can become overbearing and create more stress than you need.

“It’s good practice to stay informed but you don’t want to let the news cycle consume you,” Alev said.

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If you find yourself feeling high levels of stress or anxiety when it comes to your finances, it’s best to contact a professional who can assist you, such as a financial therapist.

If looking for regular mental health services, most health insurance covers some type of mental health assistance. If you don’t have health insurance, you can look for sliding-scale therapists around the country.

Focus on what you can control

Rather than worrying too much about the economics of the entire country, Alev recommends that you focus on the aspects of your personal life that you can control in order to feel more confident in case there is a recession.

“Identify any changes that you might need to make to have more of a safety net in place that could give you confidence,” Alev said.

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Things you can control include budgeting, creating an emergency fund and cutting unnecessary expenses.

Create an emergency fund

Whether you are worried about your job security or the high prices of goods, it’s best that you sit down and reassess your budget to create an emergency fund. An emergency fund can feel unattainable if finances are already difficult, but having even a small amount of cash saved can make the difference, Alev said.

Ideally, your emergency fund should amount to three to six months of expenses.

Weil recommends you start thinking about any special commitments that you might have in the next year or two, such as college tuition or moving. If you are planning for a large financial commitment in the near future, Weil recommends that you plan to build a larger emergency fund.

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Do monthly finance check-ins

Alev recommends regularly adjusting your budget to keep your financial goals on track. Monthly budget check-ins can help identify when you are overspending or if your needs change.

“A budget is only as good as it is to help you actually make decisions, so don’t be afraid to update and adapt your budget as the months go by,” Alev said.

Choose which type of debt to tackle first

Many people struggle with debt, whether it’s credit card debt or student loan debt, which limits their ability to save. But, if you want to create an emergency fund while also tackling your debt, it will take some prioritisation.

“I would think about different kinds of debt differently,” Weil said, adding that you can place debt in three buckets: short-, medium- and long-term debt.

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Weil recommends that you prioritise paying off high-interest debt such as your credit card. By making extra payments or paying over the minimum payment, you will be able to pay it off quicker. Student loan debt and long-term debt such as a mortgage can be tackled with more modest payments while you focus on creating an emergency fund.

If you have credit card debt and you can’t make too much progress in paying it down, Alev recommends you try to eliminate or reduce the amount of credit you use.

Don’t panic about your investments

While the stock market has had some bad days, it’s best that you are not reactive to the market. If you have investments, especially in retirement vehicles, it’s best not to make rushed decisions, Alev said.

“You really want to try not to panic. It can be unnerving but most likely, you should have time to make that up,” she added. If you’re closer to retirement, Alev recommends that you look into more conservative investments.

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US-China Tariff Truce Triggers Transpacific Rush—But Uncertainty Lingers

Home News US-China Tariff Truce Triggers Transpacific Rush—But Uncertainty Lingers

A brief easing of tariffs between the US and China has set off a burst of transpacific trade activity, but deeper tensions and long-term supply chain disruptions continue to cloud the outlook.

A 90-day truce in the ongoing US-China trade war has sparked a rush to move goods across the Pacific, with businesses scrambling to take advantage of temporarily lowered tariffs.

President Donald Trump essentially backed down on a trade war that he started with China, reducing US duties on Chinese imports from a punishing 145% to 30%. China, meanwhile, slashed its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.

The short-term relief is already creating ripple effects as container carriers like Marseille, France-based CMA CGM and Hamburg, Germany-based Hapag-Lloyd reportedly praised the pause and expect to see a spike in bookings as businesses try to ship before the temporary pause ends.

“You weren’t going to be shipping anything from China to the US at 145%,” David Roche, president of financial analysis firm Quantum Strategy in Singapore, told Global Finance. “At 30%, something gets shipped—but far less than when we were at 8% before Trump took office.” Roche noted that a modest uptick in container traffic might soon appear in Port of Los Angeles bookings, which reflect demand about three weeks out.

But he cautioned: “My feeling is that we will see a small recovery, but not a big recovery, and you will still have empty shelves, and you will still have increased inflation in the US as a result of these tariffs.”

April inflation data offered a mixed picture. While year-over-year inflation cooled slightly to 2.3%—just under the 2.4% forecast—prices still rose 0.2% month-over-month, missing estimates of 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8%.

The scenario looks less bleak compared to last month when Fitch Ratings downgraded its 2025 global GDP forecast to 1.9% amid concerns about Trump’s escalating tariff policy. The firm’s chief economist, Brian Coulton, said in an analyst note on Tuesday that while the latest 90-day pause brings the US effective tariff rate down from 23% to 13%, it’s still far above the 2.3% level seen in 2024.

This does not mean that the trade war, “which is already having a tangible economic impact, is over,” Coulton said, citing remaining 10% baseline tariffs and industry-specific levies still in force.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists the US-China talks are part of a broader strategy of “economic decoupling for strategic necessities.” He emphasized that “generalized decoupling” is not US policy, but the administration remains focused on import substitution to reduce reliance on Chinese goods and bolster American manufacturing.

Even with the recent rollback, China remains the US’s most heavily tariffed trading partner. According to Fitch, the current ETR for Chinese imports stands at 31.8%, factoring in legacy duties on steel, autos, and a 10% baseline tariff applied broadly. Certain electronics like smartphones and computers were excluded from the most recent round of tariffs.

While the temporary deal may cool tensions and boost transpacific shipping in the short run, experts warn that the structural damage to global supply chains—and the strategic rift between the world’s two largest economies—is unlikely to heal in just 90 days.

Analysts for Singapore-based UOB Group struck a more optimistic tone following the pause in US-China trade tensions, forecasting a near-term economic boost for China as exporters rush to front-load production and shipments to the US during the window.

“Suffice to say, we now see some upside potential to our 2025 growth forecast for China of 4.3%,” UOB analysts said in a note, though they said that any formal revision will wait for further data. Despite the temporary reprieve, UOB expects China to continue focusing on domestic resilience and export diversification, supported by ongoing policy efforts.

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