South Korea weighs strategy as U.S.-China rivalry deepens
Fireworks erupt during the launch ceremony of the new 8,200-ton Aegis destroyer Dasan Jeong Yak-yong at the HD Hyundai Heavy Industries shipyard in the southeastern city of Ulsan, South Korea, 17 September 2025. The 170-meter-long, 21-meter-wide destroyer is equipped with advanced stealth features and enhanced detection and interception capabilities against ballistic missiles. File. Photo by YONHAP / EPA
Feb. 18 (Asia Today) — South Korea faces mounting strategic pressure as rivalry between the United States and China intensifies across the Indo-Pacific, raising questions about how Seoul should balance its security alliance with Washington and its economic ties with Beijing.
Analysts say the regional balance of power is entering a new phase. U.S. carrier strike groups continue to patrol the Western Pacific and longstanding alliances remain intact. Yet some experts argue Washington’s long-term strategy integrating economic, diplomatic and industrial policy lacks consistency.
In the March-April issue of Foreign Affairs, U.S. Indo-Pacific strategist Jack Cooper wrote that while American military power remains strong, its broader strategic integration has weakened. In an article titled “Asia After America,” he argued that policy shifts between administrations and the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership have left gaps in regional economic leadership.
Cooper said the issue is not U.S. withdrawal but uncertainty over long-term strategic continuity. For allies, he wrote, the question is who shapes the regional order beyond crisis intervention.
Meanwhile, China has continued expanding its footprint through militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea and sustained military activity near Taiwan. Beijing is also deepening regional economic integration through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Belt and Road Initiative, often referred to as the New Silk Road.
South Korea sits at the center of these tensions. Its security rests on its alliance with the United States, while China remains its largest trading partner. Key sectors such as semiconductors, batteries and artificial intelligence are directly exposed to U.S.-China competition.
Jung Seong-jang, vice president of the Sejong Institute, said in an interview that a Taiwan contingency could directly affect South Korea by disrupting critical sea lanes of communication.
A 2023 report by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy found that 33.27% of South Korea’s maritime trade passes through or near the Taiwan Strait. The institute estimated that disruption of major shipping routes in the area could cause economic losses of about 445.2 billion won ($334 million) per day, based on current exchange rates.
Jung cautioned that direct South Korean military involvement in protecting sea lanes could heighten tensions with China, while North Korea might exploit regional instability to escalate provocations.
Joo Eun-sik, head of the Korea Institute for Strategic Studies, outlined several policy recommendations.
First, he called for deeper integration of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, including coordinated planning in maritime security, missile defense, space and cyber domains to strengthen deterrence against so-called gray-zone threats.
Second, he urged a combined economic and security strategy, strengthening supply chain cooperation and expanding investment in strategic technologies. He said South Korea’s defense industry should function not only as an export sector but as part of a broader strategic network.
Third, he emphasized maritime capabilities, describing sea routes from the Strait of Malacca through the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait as vital to South Korea’s economy. Expanding blue-water naval operations, submarine forces, maritime patrol and unmanned systems, he said, is essential.
Finally, he highlighted the need to build strategic autonomy within the alliance framework by investing in independent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, space monitoring systems and layered missile defense.
Analysts say the Indo-Pacific order remains unsettled. Whether South Korea becomes a passive bystander or an active architect of its own strategy may depend on how effectively it integrates security, industry and technology into a coherent national plan.
— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI
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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260218010005435