trillion

Crypto traders are assigning Anthropic an implied valuation more than $1 trillion (€866bn) above its last funding-round price, before public investors have even seen its accounts.

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The company behind Claude has filed its IPO paperwork confidentially and chosen Nasdaq for its initial public offering.

What remains is the public release of its S-1 filing, the official registration package that a US company submits to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Until it arrives, the only live price on Anthropic comes from a corner of the crypto market where pre-IPO speculation runs rampant, and it currently sits far above anything the company has ever agreed with an investor.

The last agreed valuation was $965 billion (€836bn), set when a $65 billion (€56bn) Series H round closed at the end of May, led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia.

That was already an extraordinary figure for a company founded in 2021 by Dario and Daniela Amodei, and it followed a valuation of $61.5 billion (€53.3bn) barely a year earlier, representing a nearly sixteenfold increase in roughly 12 months.

Revenue has moved almost as fast.

Anthropic’s annualised revenue run rate passed $65 billion (€56bn) by the end of July, driven by enterprise adoption of Claude.

The losses are also enormous, reportedly reaching close to $42 billion (€36.4bn) in 2025, reflecting the cost of training frontier models. Amazon has committed to investing as much as $33 billion (€28.6bn) in the company, while Anthropic has committed to spending more than $100 billion (€86.6bn) on AWS technologies over the coming decade.

Given these figures, investors are already aiming considerably higher than the valuation in the last round.

Reports have put the target IPO valuation at $2 trillion (€1.73tn), with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley leading an offering expected to raise more than $60 billion (€52bn).

The market that is already trading

Perpetual futures contracts tracking Anthropic’s pre-IPO valuation are currently trading on Hyperliquid, the largest decentralised derivatives venue, where the implied market capitalisation reached an all-time high of roughly $2.36 trillion (€2.05tn) and sits near $2.15 trillion (€1.86tn) at the time of writing.

That is about 2.2 times the Series H valuation.

Heng Yu Lee, partner at market maker DWF Labs, which is active in these instruments, rejects the suggestion that leverage rather than conviction is driving the premium.

“Whether it’s leveraged or not, everyone trading the pre-IPO market is genuine demand at the price that’s reflected,” he told Euronews, adding that “the premium is pricing in public information that’s available, such as expected revenue numbers and expected market demand for the stock.”

These contracts will also be the first instruments to react when the filing lands, trading around the clock while equity markets are shut.

“At a moment like the S-1 dropping, you typically see volume spike and prices fluctuate heavily as the market digests the information,” Lee explained.

However, the market remains small relative to what it is valuing.

“Currently, the market isn’t super deep, with just $6M in 24-hour volume and $31M in open interest on Hyperliquid,” Lee said, adding that liquidity should improve as the listing approaches, given that more investors are likely to pile in.

Lee is also candid about how much weight the number deserves.

“As of now, I wouldn’t rely too heavily on the absolute pricing as we have yet to have a public S-1,” he stated while clarifying that “the direction of how the prices move typically still accurately reflects the shifting sentiment towards the company as things develop.”

A crowded year for AI listings

Once Anthropic files publicly, it will cement 2026 as the year of AI IPOs.

It started with chipmaker Cerebras Systems, which designs wafer-scale processors pitched as an alternative to Nvidia’s. The firm listed on Nasdaq in May after two false starts, raising $5.55 billion (€4.76bn) at $185 a share, above its revised price range.

The stock opened 89% higher and closed its first day near $311, valuing the company at roughly $67 billion (€58bn) compared with the $23 billion (€20bn) it had been worth three months earlier.

Investor appetite for a credible Nvidia challenger proved fierce, though the enthusiasm cooled quickly after a disappointing first earnings report. Cerebras is currently trading at a valuation of around $43.7 billion (€37.8bn).

Then came SpaceX, which listed in June, raising more than $85 billion (€73.6bn) at a valuation that briefly touched $2.8 trillion (€2.4tn) before falling back to around $1.95 trillion (€1.69tn).

OpenAI was also slated to hold an IPO this year and had already filed confidentially, but has now stepped back entirely. The company has a private valuation of $852 billion (€738bn), set during a $122 billion (€105bn) round in March.

CEO Sam Altman told Fortune on Saturday that listing this year would be “ill-advised”, ruling out 2026 and declining to commit to 2027. He said the company had “a lot of stuff to do” on safety and alignment and that being private made that easier.

Altman’s comments arrived the same day that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay titled “We Must Pace the Frontier”, arguing that AI companies should deliberately slow the rate at which they improve their most capable models.

Amodei proposed three steps: independent evaluators with employee-level access to frontier systems, coordination on safety standards among labs in democratic countries, and international agreements on the most dangerous categories of use.

Anthropic has already committed unilaterally to the first, and the endorsements came quickly, with Sam Altman saying he agreed on the need to pace the frontier and Elon Musk replying simply: “Dario is right”.

However, US President Donald Trump did not.

In his first public response to the three CEOs, Trump, speaking in Ireland on Sunday, dismissed the argument.

“We’re leading China in AI. We’re the most sophisticated country in the world, and frankly, I want to keep it that way, because whoever wins AI wins,” Trump said, describing some warnings as things “that won’t happen”.

Trump has since reiterated that argument in several social media posts.

Likewise, China’s foreign ministry called the warnings “fearmongering”.

Markets registered the exchange, with shares in SoftBank, Kioxia and SK Hynix falling sharply on Monday. Shares in the Japanese and South Korean companies fell more than 6% and 4.3%, respectively.

This leaves Anthropic in an awkward position as it approaches what could be the largest listing ever attempted in public markets.

The company is asking public investors to fund frontier AI development while its founder argues publicly that such development should proceed more slowly.

That is not necessarily a contradiction, since pacing is not stopping, and Anthropic has always argued that safety-focused labs should be at the frontier rather than ceding it.

However, it is a story the S-1 filing will have to tell convincingly, and the risk factors section will be read unusually closely.

Published on
20/08/2026 – 11:18 GMT+2

The US national debt now stands at a record $40 trillion (€34.4tn), while the Treasury has responded to the bond market pressure by pledging to buy back far more of its own older securities.

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Washington’s two announcements landed on the same day and represent two symptoms of the same underlying strain: a government borrowing at a record pace just as buyers of its longest-dated debt are demanding higher returns to keep lending.

Buybacks work like a targeted repurchase. Rather than printing new money, the US Treasury uses cash it already has to repurchase older, harder-to-trade bonds from investors, improving liquidity without changing the total stock of debt.

From 9 September, the maximum size of each buyback operation in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year markets will at least double, from $2 billion (€1.7bn) to $4 billion (€3.4bn), running through the next quarterly refunding on 4 November.

The US Treasury said the change reflects “strong sponsorship from market participants” in that part of the curve, but the timing of the decision was no accident.

The 30-year yield had climbed on Tuesday to its highest level since 2007 amid what analysts called a buyers’ strike stretching back to late June, aggravated by a swelling supply of corporate debt tied to AI data centre spending.

Yields duly fell after Wednesday’s announcement, with the 30-year dropping roughly 9 basis points and the 10-year around 6, and Wall Street rallied.

Asked whether Americans should worry about the volatility, US President Donald Trump simply said: “No, I don’t think so.”

However, not everyone is convinced the fix goes deep enough.

The size of the increase is modest next to the $32 trillion (€27.5tn) Treasury market it is meant to steady, and notable economist Mohamed El-Erian suggested the outsized market reaction reflected hopes of broader intervention to come rather than the direct effect of the buybacks themselves.

Thomas Simons, chief US economist at Jefferies, said the announcement broke with Treasury’s usual pattern of steady, well-flagged communication about its borrowing plans and felt “shot from the hip”.

How the US national debt reached $40 trillion

The debt figure, confirmed by US Treasury data covering Tuesday, splits into $32.27 trillion (€27.75tn) held by the public and $7.78 trillion (€6.69tn) owed between government accounts.

It arrived roughly two fiscal years earlier than expected as the US Congressional Budget Office projected in May 2023 that the threshold would not be crossed until 2028, and it came remarkably fast even by recent standards: $39 trillion (€33.5tn) was reached only in March, $38 trillion (€32.6tn) the previous October.

The US government borrowed $1.8 trillion (€1.5tn) in the first ten months of this fiscal year alone, already more than it borrowed in the whole of the last one, as spending on Social Security, Medicare, defence and interest payments continues to outrun revenue.

“The national debt is not just a number on the government’s balance sheet,” said David Young, president of the Conference Board’s CEO Center, noting it shapes the financial decisions Americans make daily.

The two stories feed each other.

A bigger debt load makes investors warier about lending long-term, which pushes yields higher. In turn, higher yields then raise the government’s own interest bill, adding further to the debt the US Treasury has to finance next.

Wednesday’s buyback expansion may ease the immediate pressure, but it does nothing to slow the borrowing driving it.