Trade War

New York City, United States – Since the recent termination of the nearly decade-old trade rule called “de minimis,” United States consumers and businesses have been exposed to slower shipping, destroyed packages and steep tariff fees on international goods – foreshadowing what could make for a chaotic holiday shopping season.

For major international carrier UPS, navigating the latest regulatory changes has proved more fraught than for its competitors FedEx and DHL.

Matthew Wasserbach, brokerage manager for Express Customs Clearance in New York, a firm that assists importers with documentation, tariff classifications, valuation, and other federal requirements, has witnessed the fallout as UPS customers seek his firm’s assistance to clear packages entering the US.

“Over the last few months, we’ve been seeing a lot of UPS shipments, in particular, becoming stuck and being lost or disposed of … This all stems from the ending of the de minimis,” said Wasserbach. “Their [UPS’s] whole business model changed once the de minimis was ended. And they just didn’t have the capacity to do the clearance … a lot of people are expecting to receive international packages, and they’re just never gonna get them.”

UPS did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

Suspending tariff exemptions

Since 2016, the de minimis trade exemption determined that packages worth $800 or less were not subject to taxes and tariffs. According to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the number of shipments entering the US claiming the exemption increased by more than 600 percent from 139 million shipments in 2015 to more than one billion in 2023.

In August, this all changed. President Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending de minimis treatment for all countries, spiralling US imports into a new landscape of paperwork and processes, subject to duties and tariffs based on their place of origin.

Just a month after de minimis ended, while shipping products with UPS, Tezumi Tea, an online Japanese tea and teaware company that sells its products online and through meetups in New York City, fell victim to the tariff backlog at US customs. Tezumi lost roughly 150kg (330lbs) of matcha, totalling about $13,000.

“We responded by increasing buffers in our supply planning across the dozen farms that we partner with,” said Ryan Snowden, a cofounder of Tezumi. “Even with those adjustments, the loss had a severe effect on a number of our cafe customers who suddenly needed to switch to another matcha blend.”

Now, UPS is no longer accepting shipments from Japan, and Tezumi has switched to shipping supplies through alternate carriers such as DHL and FedEx.

Disposing shipments

Wasserbach has witnessed similar instances of UPS losing imports.

“When a UPS package goes uncleared, it’s just basically sitting in a UPS facility, uncleared for a certain period of time,” said Wasserbach. “Then UPS indicates in their tracking that they’re disposing of the shipments without making, really, any effort, from what I’ve seen, to contact either the sender or the receiver, to get information they need to do to get the clearance.”

Wasserbach shared email chains with Al Jazeera from UPS customers who looped in his firm to their customs clearance UPS debacles.

In one exchange, UPS customer Stephan Niznik responded to a notice from the UPS Alternate Broker Team that their packages had been “destroyed”.

“The tracking says on multiple instances that UPS attempted to contact the sender (me), but this is false; aside from a request for more information on September 5 (which I responded to immediately), UPS never attempted to contact me,” wrote Niznik. “It is absolutely disgraceful that my package was mishandled – clothes and children’s toys were destroyed at the hands of UPS.”

In another email chain, UPS told customer Chenying Li that their package was released following an email from Express Customs Clearance stating that the shipment was cleared.

A week later, Li’s package was still showing as “Pending Release”, and when they asked for an update on the shipment, UPS responded, “At this time we are unable to provide an ETA,  as volume is currently backed up and awaiting delivery due to the De Minimis impact.”

‘Impose additional pressure’

In addition to the customs backlog, Virginia Tech associate professor David Bieri says cost prevention may provide one explanation for UPS choosing to dispose of packages rejected by US customs rather than return the shipments to senders.

“All these additional rules and regulations impose additional pressure on already relatively tight margins for these companies – UPS, FedEx, DHL and so forth,” said Bieri. “They need to make money, and sometimes it’s easier not to fulfil a service than to take on the additional cost of customs clearance and making sure that it gets to its final destination.”

Bieri added that UPS resorting to package disposal may indicate that they believe themselves to be in “a sufficiently strong monopolistic position that they can do such horrible practice – unilateral nonfulfillment of contract”.

Wasserbach told Al Jazeera that “with FedEx and DHL shipments, we aren’t seeing these problems”.

When asked whether FedEx has disposed of packages stuck in customs, a spokesperson wrote, “If paperwork is not complete and/or rejected by US Customs and Border Protection, FedEx actively works with senders to update paperwork to resubmit to CBP or return shipments to senders. In some cases, shippers can request that packages be disposed of if they would prefer not to pay to return to sender. In those rare cases, recipients are notified at the direction of the shipper. This is not a common practice. We remain business as usual.”

Final cost of delivery at your doorstep

But FedEx and DHL are encountering some of the same challenges as UPS. Since August, when de minimis ended and small packages were suddenly subject to taxes and tariffs, anyone who ordered from abroad was susceptible to unexpected fees on imported goods.

Without de minimis protecting packages worth $800 and less from import fees, the consumer essentially becomes the importer.

“You might order something you find a bargain abroad, and you don’t pay attention to where things are shipped from … and it might be shipped from China, and you might be in for a rude awakening once that thing arrives at your door,” said Beiri. “You paid the price and thought that this was it. But your deliverer is saying, no, actually, we’re passing that cost on to you. Because you’re acting as the importer.”

These fees could cost equal to or more than the item you ordered itself. “You’ve got to pay extra attention to small prints,” said Beiri.

With looming costs and lost packages on the horizon, Beiri says shoppers will likely make “substitution questions” – are you renovating or are you going on vacation? Are you splashing on Christmas gifts, or are you treating yourself to dining out?

“I think these are interesting times of having to make choices and asking yourself what can we do given that we have an affordability crisis, rent, insurance, making ends meet,” said Beiri. “That’s what’s currently going on.”

In order to better handle evolving trade policy, Wasserbach says that UPS will likely aim to hire a massive number of entry writers to assist with necessary documentation for legal transportation of goods across international borders. However, now that it is the busiest time of year in terms of delivering people their Christmas shopping, Wasserbach doubts an influx of hiring could make much of a difference, given the amount of training required.

The company’s revenue has already taken a hit on account of Trump’s policies. Tariffs on China and the elimination of the de minimis rule saw imports from China, UPS’s most profitable route, drop reportedly 35 percent earlier this year.

“I would assume it’s gonna get better next year,” said Wasserbach. “But as for solving this problem before Christmas, I don’t think that that’s gonna happen.”

EU delays Mercosur trade deal until January amid farmer protests and opposition from France and Italy.

The European Union has delayed a massive free-trade deal with South American countries amid protests by EU farmers and as last-minute opposition by France and Italy threatened to derail the agreement.

European Commission chief spokesperson Paula Pinho confirmed on Thursday that the signing of the trade pact between the EU and South American bloc Mercosur will be postponed until January, further delaying a deal that had taken some 25 years to negotiate.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was expected to travel to Brazil on Saturday to sign the deal, but needed the backing of a broad majority of EU members to do so.

The Associated Press news agency reported that an agreement to delay was reached between von der Leyen, European Council President Antonio Costa and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni – who spoke at an EU summit on Thursday – on the condition that Italy would vote in favour of the agreement in January.

French President Emmanuel Macron had also pushed back against the deal as he arrived for Thursday’s summit in Brussels, calling for further concessions and more discussions in January.

Macron said he has been in discussions with Italian, Polish, Belgian, Austrian and Irish colleagues, among others, about delaying the signing.

“Farmers already face an enormous amount of challenges,″ the French leader said.

The trade pact with Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay would be the EU’s largest in terms of tariff cuts.

But critics of the deal, notably France and Italy, fear an influx of cheap commodities that could hurt European farmers, while Germany, Spain and Nordic countries say it will boost exports hit by United States tariffs and reduce reliance on China by securing access to key minerals.

Brazil’s President Lula says Italy’s PM Meloni asked for ‘patience’

The EU-Mercosur agreement would create the world’s biggest free-trade area and help the 27-nation European bloc to export more vehicles, machinery, wines and spirits to Latin America at a time of global trade tensions.

Al Jazeera’s Dominic Kane, reporting from Berlin, said Germany, Spain and the Nordic countries were “all lobbying hard in favour of this deal”. But ranged against them were the French and Italian governments because of concerns in their powerful farming sectors.

“Their worry being that their products, such as poultry and beef, could be undercut by far cheaper imports from the Mercosur countries,” Kane said.

“So no signing in December. The suggestion being maybe there will be a signing in mid-January,” he added.

“But there must now be a question about what might happen between now and mid-January, given the powerful forces ranged against each other in this debate,” he added.

Mercosur nations were notified of the move, a European Commission spokeswoman said, and while initially reacting with a now-or-never ultimatum to its EU partners, Brazil opened the door on Thursday to delaying the deal’s signature to allow time to win over the holdouts.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Italy’s Meloni had asked him for “patience” and had indicated that Italy would eventually be ready for the agreement.

The decision to delay also came hours after farmers in tractors blocked roads and set off fireworks in Brussels to protest the deal, prompting police to respond with tear gas and water cannon.

Protesting farmers – some travelling to the Belgian capital from as far away as Spain and Poland – brought potatoes and eggs to throw and waged a furious back-and-forth with police while demonstrators burned tyres and a faux wooden coffin bearing the word “agriculture”.

The European Parliament evacuated some staff due to damage caused by protesters.

Two words that largely define the economy right now: Global reordering.

President Donald Trump’s Tariffs have landed as a shock to global trade. This is 2025.

Major economies are rewriting their playbooks, and alliances are being redrawn.

From Africa’s minerals boom to the global AI race, countries are scrambling for influence – even as debt piles up.

They are spending more, borrowing more and making tough choices from defence to climate policy and labour shortages.

And through it all, people are bearing high costs.

In October, a small electronics manufacturer in the western Indian state of Gujarat shipped its first batch of chip modules to a client in California.

Kaynes Semicon, together with Japanese and Malaysian technology partners, assembled the chips in a new factory funded with incentives under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s $10bn semiconductor push announced in 2021.

Modi has been trying to position India as an additional manufacturing hub for global companies that may be looking to expand their production beyond China, with limited success.

One sign of that is India’s first commercial foundry for mature chips that is currently under construction, also in Gujarat. The $11bn project is supported by technology transfer from a Taiwanese chipmaker and has onboarded the United States chip giant Intel as a potential customer.

With companies the world over hungering for chips, India’s entry into that business could boost its role in global supply chains. But experts caution that India still has a long way to go in attracting more foreign investment and catching up in cutting-edge technology.

Unprecedented momentum

Semiconductor chips are designed, fabricated in foundries, and then assembled and packaged for commercial use. The US leads in chip design, Taiwan in fabrication, and China, increasingly, in packaging.

The upcoming foundry in Gujarat is a collaboration between India’s Tata Group, one of the largest conglomerates in the country, and Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC), which is assisting with the plant’s construction and technology transfer.

On December 8, Tata Electronics also signed an agreement with Intel to explore the manufacturing and packaging of its products in Tata’s upcoming facilities, including the foundry. The partnership will address the growing domestic demand.

Last year, Tata was approved for a 50 percent subsidy from the Modi government for the foundry, along with additional state-level incentives, and could come online as early as December 2026.

Even if delayed, the project marks a pivotal moment for India, which has seen multiple attempts to build a commercial fab stall in the past.

The foundry will focus on fabricating chips ranging from 28 nanometres (nm) to 110nm, typically referred to as mature chips because they are comparatively easier to produce than smaller 7nm or 3nm chips.

Mature chips are used in most consumer and power electronics, while the smaller chips are in high demand for AI data centres and high-performance computing. Globally, the technology for mature chips is more widely available and distributed. Taiwan leads production of these chips, with China fast catching up, though Taiwan’s TSMC dominates production for cutting-edge nodes below 7nm.

“India has long been strong in chip design, but the challenge has been converting that strength into semiconductor manufacturing,” said Stephen Ezell, vice president for global innovation policy at the Washington, DC-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF).

“In the past two to three years, there’s been more progress on that front than in the previous decade – driven by stronger political will at both the central and state levels, and a more coordinated push from the private sector to commit to these investments,” Ezell told Al Jazeera.

Easy entry point

More than half of the Modi government’s $10bn in semiconductor incentives is earmarked for the Tata-PSMC venture, with the remainder supporting nine other projects focused mainly on the assembly, testing and packaging (ATP) stage of the supply chain.

These are India’s first such projects – one by Idaho-based Micron Technology, also in Gujarat, and another by the Tata Group in the northeastern Assam state. Both will use in-house technologies and have drawn investments of $2.7bn and $3.3bn, respectively.

The remaining projects are smaller, with cumulative investments of about $2bn, and are backed by technology partners such as Taiwan’s Foxconn, Japan’s Renesas Electronics, and Thailand’s Stars Microelectronics.

“ATP units offer a lower path of resistance compared to a large foundry, requiring smaller investments – typically between $50m and $1bn. They also carry less risk, and the necessary technology know-how is widely available globally,” Ashok Chandak, president of the India Electronics and Semiconductor Association (IESA), told Al Jazeera.

Still, most of the projects are behind schedule.

Micron’s facility, approved for incentives in June 2023, was initially expected to begin production by late 2024. However, the company noted in its fiscal 2025 report that the Gujarat facility will “address demand in the latter half of this decade”.

Approved in February 2024, the Tata facility was initially slated to be operational by mid-2025, but the timeline has now been pushed to April 2026.

When asked for reasons behind the delays, both Micron and Tata declined to comment.

One exception is a smaller ATP unit by Kaynes Semicon, which in October exported a consignment of sample chip modules to an anchor client in California – a first for India.

Another project by CG Semi, part of India’s Murugappa Group, is in trial runs, with commercial production expected in the coming months.

The semiconductor projects under the Tata Group and the Murugappa Group have drawn public scrutiny after Indian online news outlet Scroll.in reported that both companies made massive political donations after they were picked for the projects.

As per Scroll.in, the Tata Group donated 7.5 billion rupees ($91m) and 1.25 billion rupees ($15m), respectively, to Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) just weeks after securing government subsidies in February 2024 and ahead of national elections. Neither group had made such large donations to the party before. Such donations are not prohibited by law. Both the Tata Group and the Murugappa Group declined to comment to Al Jazeera regarding the reports.

Meeting domestic demand a key priority

The upcoming projects in India – both the foundry and the ATP units – will primarily focus on legacy, or mature, chips sized between 28nm and 110nm. While these chips are not at the cutting-edge of semiconductor technology, they account for the bulk of global demand, with applications across cars, industrial equipment and consumer electronics.

China dominates the ATP segment globally with a 30 percent share and accounted for 42 percent of semiconductor equipment spending in 2024, according to DBS Group Research.

India has long positioned itself as a “China Plus One” destination amid global supply chain diversification, with some progress evident in Apple’s expansion of its manufacturing base in the country. The company assembles all its latest iPhone models in India, in partnership with Foxconn and Tata Electronics, and has emerged as a key supplier to the US market this year following tariff-related uncertainties over Chinese shipments.

Its push in the ATP segment, however, is driven largely by the need to meet the growing domestic demand for chips, anticipated to surge from $50bn today to $100bn by 2030.

“Globally, too, the market will expand from around $650bn to $1 trillion. So, we’re not looking at shifting manufacturing from China to elsewhere. We’re looking at capturing the incremental demand emerging both in India and abroad,” Chandak said.

India’s import of chips – both integrated circuits and microassemblies – has jumped in recent years, rising 36 percent in 2024 to nearly $24bn from the previous year. An integrated circuit (IC) is a chip serving logic, memory or processing functions, whereas a microassembly is a broader package of multiple chips performing combined functions.

The momentum has continued this year, with imports up 20 percent year-on-year, accounting for about 3 percent of India’s total import bill, according to official trade data. China remains the leading supplier with a 30 percent share, followed by Hong Kong (19 percent), South Korea (11 percent), Taiwan (10 percent), and Singapore (10 percent).

“Even if it’s a 28 nm chip, from a trade balance perspective, India would rather produce and package it domestically than import it,” Ezell of ITIF said, adding that domestic capability would enhance the competitiveness of chip-dependent industries.

Better incentives needed

The Modi government’s support for the chip sector, while unprecedented for India, is still dwarfed by the $48bn committed by China and the $53bn provisioned under the US’s CHIPS Act.

To achieve scale in the ATP segment for meaningful import substitution – and to advance towards producing chips smaller than 28nm – India will need continued government support, and there is a second round of incentives already in the works.

“The reality is, if India wants to compete at the leading edge of semiconductors, it will need to attract a foreign partner – American or Asian – since only a handful of companies globally operate at that level. It’s highly unlikely that a domestic firm will be competitive at 7nm or 3nm anytime soon,” Ezell said.

According to him, India needs to continue focusing on improving its overall business environment – from ensuring reliable power and infrastructure to streamlining regulations, customs and tariff policies.

India’s engineers make up about a fifth of the global chip design workforce, but rising competition from China and Malaysia to attract multinational design firms could erode that edge.

In its latest incentive round, the Indian government limited benefits to domestic firms to promote local intellectual property – a move that, according to Alpa Sood, legal director at the India operations of California-based Marvell Technology, risks driving multinational design work elsewhere.

“India already has a thriving chip design ecosystem strengthened by early-stage incentives from the government. What we need, to further accelerate and build stronger R&D muscle – is incentives that mirror competing countries like China [220 percent tax incentives] and Malaysia [200 percent tax incentives]. This will ensure we don’t lose the advantage we’ve built over the years,” Sood told Al Jazeera.

Marvell’s India operations are its largest outside the US.

The Trump effect

India’s upcoming chip facilities, while aimed at meeting domestic demand, will also export to clients in the US, Japan, and Taiwan. Though US President Donald Trump has threatened 100 percent tariffs on semiconductors made outside the US, none have yet been imposed.

A bigger concern for India-US engagement – so far limited to education and training – is Washington’s 50 percent tariff on India over its Russian crude imports. Semiconductors remain exempt, but the broader trade climate has turned uncertain.

“Over half the global semiconductor market is controlled by US-headquartered firms, making engagement with them crucial,” Chandak said. “Any alignment with these firms, either through joint ventures or technology partnerships – is a preferred option.”

The global chip race is accelerating, and India’s policies will need to keep pace to become a serious player amid growing geo-economic fragmentation.

“These new 1.7nm fabs are so advanced they even factor in the moon’s gravitational pull – it’s literally a moonshot,” Ezell said. “Semiconductor manufacturing is the most complex engineering task humanity undertakes – and the policymaking behind it must be just as precise.”

Monterrey, Mexico – In April, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the country’s aerospace industry could see sustained annual growth of as much as 15 percent over the next four years, and attributed the sector’s expansion to a robust local manufacturing workforce, increasing exports, and a strong presence of foreign companies.

But with the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) coming up – the free-trade treaty between the three countries that helped Mexico’s aerospace sector to grow and flourish – the industry’s future is no longer certain.

Stakeholders warn that ensuring investment stability and strengthening labour standards are essential to protecting the sector’s North American supply chain.

Mexico is striving to become one of the top 10 countries in aerospace production value, a goal outlined in Plan Mexico, the country’s strategic initiative to enhance global competitiveness in key sectors.

As the sixth-largest supplier of aerospace parts to the US, the industry has benefited significantly from the USMCA, which fostered regional supply chain integration, said Monica Lugo, director of institutional relations at the consulting firm PRODENSA.

However, the integration is no guarantee of business continuing to grow as the country is at an “unprecedented moment” with US President Donald Trump and his wide-ranging tariff policies.

Lugo, a former USMCA negotiator, said that recent tariffs on materials like steel and aluminium — critical to the aerospace sector— have eroded trust in the US as a reliable partner. She predicts that if current conditions continue, the sector risks losing capital, investments and jobs.

“Having this great uncertainty – one day it’s on, the next it’s off, who knows tomorrow – and based on no specific criteria, but rather on the president’s mood, creates chaos and severely damages the country and the economy,” she said.

On December 4, Trump suggested the US might let the USMCA expire next year, or negotiate a new deal. This follows comments by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to US news outlet Politico that the administration is considering separate deals with Canada and Mexico.

A booming aerospace sector

The Mexican aerospace market is valued at $11.2bn, and is expected to more than double to $22.7bn by 2029, Sheinbaum said, citing data from the Mexican Aerospace Industry Federation (FEMIA). Home to global companies like Bombardier, Safran, Airbus, and Honeywell, Mexico has established itself as a key player in the global aerospace market and is now the world’s twelfth-largest exporter of aerospace components.

Marco Antonio Del Prete, secretary of sustainable development in Queretaro, attributes this success in part to heavy investment in education and training. In 2005, the Queretaro government promised Canada’s Bombardier that it would invest in education and set up the Aeronautical University, which now offers programmes ranging from technical diplomas to master’s degrees in aerospace manufacturing and engineering.

“Since Bombardier’s arrival, an educational and training system was created that allows us to develop talent in a very efficient way, let’s say, fast track,” Del Prete told Al Jazeera.

Bombardier has served as an anchor, propelling Queretaro’s rise as a high-skilled manufacturing hub for parts and components.

While the Bombardier plant in Queretaro originally focused on wiring harnesses, it has evolved to specialise in complex aerostructures, including the rear fuselage for the Global 7500, Bombardier’s ultra-long-range business jet, and key components for the Challenger 3500, the mid-sized business jet.

Marco Antonio Carrillo, a research professor at the Autonomous University of Queretaro (UAQ), pointed out that the area’s wide educational offerings have cultivated a powerful workforce, which has gained significant attention from aeroplane makers, mainly from the US, Canada and France.

“This development [of Queretaro] has been, if you look at it in terms of time, truly explosive,” Carrillo said.

Mexico also aims to join France and the US as the third country capable of fully assembling an engine for Safran.

But the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) Union, which represents more than 600,000 workers in Canada and the US, is worried that progress could lead to more advanced manufacturing and assembly work to eventually shift to Mexico, given the local investment in aeronautical universities and training.

“Right now they’re [Mexican workers] doing more entry-level type things, but our concern is that later on, larger pieces of the aerospace operation will go to Mexico,” Peter Greenberg, the IAM’s international affairs director, told Al Jazeera.

High-skilled, low-cost workforce

Of the three countries in the USMCA agreement, Mexico’s biggest attraction has been its low-cost manufacturing.

Edgar Buendia and Mario Duran Bustamante, economics professors at the Rosario Castellanos National University, cite Mexico’s low labour costs and geographical proximity to the US as the country’s key advantages. This is partly why the US has intensified pressure on the Mexican government, including during the initial USMCA negotiations in 2017, to raise wages to level the playing field and reduce unfair competition.

“Most US companies have incentives to move their production here in Mexico, given the [low] wages and the geographic location. So, to prevent that from happening, the United States is pressuring Mexico to raise labour standards, ensure freedom of association, and improve working conditions,” Buendia told Al Jazeera, things that will benefit Mexican workers even as employer-dominated labour groups worry that they may lose their advantage.

The IAM originally opposed the USMCA’s predecessor, NAFTA. Greenberg said that while they acknowledge USMCA will continue, US and Canadian workers “would probably be perfectly happy” if the agreement ended as the NAFTA deal had led to plants being shuttered and workers being laid off as jobs moved from the US and Canada to low-cost Mexico.

“There is a need for stronger incentives to keep work in the United States and Canada. We want to see the wages in Mexico go up so that it doesn’t become automatically a place where companies go to because they know they will have lower wages and workers who do not have any bargaining power or strong units,” Greenberg added.

Under Sheinbaum’s Morena party, Mexico has raised the minimum wage from 88 pesos ($4.82) in 2018 to 278.8 pesos ($15.30) in 2025, with the rate in municipalities bordering the US reaching 419.88 pesos ($23). On December 4, Sheinbaum announced a 13 percent rise in the minimum wage — and 5 percent for the border zone— set to begin in January 2026.

Despite these increases and the competitiveness of wages in the aerospace sector, researchers agree that a significant wage gap persists between Mexican workers and their US and Canadian counterparts.

“The wage gap is definitely abysmal,” said Javier Salinas, a scholar at the UAQ Labor Center, specialising in labour relations in the aerospace industry. “The [aerospace] industry average is between 402 [Mexican pesos] and 606, with the highest daily wage being 815. [But] 815, converted to US dollars, is less than $40 for a single workday.”

By contrast, Salinas estimates that a worker in the US earns an average of about 5,500 pesos, or $300, per day.

‘Protection unions’

The USMCA required Mexico to end “protection unions”, a longstanding practice where companies sign agreements with corrupt union leaders — known as “sindicatos charros” — without the workers’ knowledge. This system has been used to prevent authentic union organising, as these sindicatos often serve the interests of the company and government authorities rather than the workers.

Salinas argues that despite the 2019 labour reform, it remains difficult for independent unions to emerge. Meanwhile, “protection unions” continue to keep wages low to maintain competitiveness.

“But imagine, a competitiveness based on precarious or impoverished working conditions. I don’t think that’s the way forward,” Salinas said.

Even with new labour courts and laws mandating collective bargaining, organising in Mexico remains dangerous. Workers attempting to create independent unions frequently face firing, threats, or being blacklisted by companies.

Humberto Huitron, a lawyer specialising in collective labour law and trade unionism, explains that Mexican workers, including in the aerospace sector, often lack effective representation. “There’s discrimination during hiring or recruitment. They don’t hire workers who are dismissed for union activism,” he said.

Beyond demanding that Mexico enforce its labour reform, the IAM is calling for the expansion and strengthening of the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM), which allows the US to take action against factories if they fail to uphold freedom of association and collective bargaining rights.

While not in the aerospace sector, the US recently invoked the RRM against a wine producer in Queretaro. Previous such actions in the state had been limited to the automotive sector.

“No one knows exactly what is going on in all of the factories in Mexico,” Greenberg said.

According to FEMIA, there are 386 aerospace companies operating in 19 states. These include 370 specialised plants that generate 50,000 direct jobs and 190,000 indirect jobs.

Del Prete, however, assured Al Jazeera that, in Queretaro, unions are independent and “they have their own organisation.”

Salinas points out that in Queretaro, there has not been a strike in decades, adding, “Imagine the control of the workforce: 29, 30 years without a single strike in the private sector.”