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Supporters of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado have rallied in countries around the world to celebrate her Nobel Peace Prize win ahead of Wednesday’s award ceremony

Thousands of people marched through Madrid, Utrecht, Buenos Aires, Lima, Brisbane and other cities on Saturday in support of 58-year-old Machado, who won the Nobel award for her struggle to achieve a democratic transition in Venezuela.

The crowd in Peru’s capital, Lima, carried portraits of Machado and demanded a “Free Venezuela”. With the country’s yellow, blue and red flag draped over their backs or emblazoned on their caps, demonstrators clutched posters that read, “The Nobel Prize is from Venezuela.”

Veronica Duran, a 41-year-old Venezuelan who has lived in Lima for eight years, said Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize is celebrated because “it represents all Venezuelans, the fallen and the political prisoners in their fight to recover democracy”.

Machado, who has been in hiding since August 2024, wants to use the attention gained by the award to highlight Venezuela ‘s democratic aspirations.

Her organisation said it expected demonstrations in more than 80 cities around the world.

In Colombia, a group of Venezuelans gathered in the capital, Bogota, wearing white T-shirts and carrying balloons as part of a religious ceremony in which supporters asked that the Nobel Peace Prize “be a symbol of hope” for the Venezuelan people.

Meanwhile, in Argentina’s capital of Buenos Aires, some 500 people gathered on the steps of the law school at the country’s largest university, improvising a torchlit march with their mobile phones.

“We Venezuelans in the world have a smile today, because we celebrate the Nobel Prize of María Corina and of the entire Venezuelan diaspora, and of all the brave people within Venezuela who have sacrificed themselves… we have so many martyrs, heroes of the resistance,” said Nancy Hoyer, a 60-year-old supporter.

The gatherings come at a critical point in the country’s protracted crisis as the administration of United States President Donald Trump builds up a massive military deployment in the Caribbean, threatening repeatedly to strike Venezuelan soil.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s has branded the US operation an effort to end his hold on power.

The Trump administration has said it does not recognise Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, as Venezuela’s legitimate president.

Maduro claimed a re-election victory last year in a national ballot that the US and other Western governments dismissed as a sham, and which independent observers said the opposition won overwhelmingly.

Machado had won the opposition’s primary election and intended to run against Maduro, but the government barred her from running for office. Retired diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez, who had never run for office before, took her place.

The lead-up to the July 28, 2024, election saw widespread repression, including disqualifications, arrests and human rights violations. It all increased after the country’s National Electoral Council, which is stacked with Maduro loyalists, declared him the winner despite credible evidence to the contrary.

Gonzalez sought asylum in Spain last year after a Venezuelan court issued a warrant for his arrest.

Meanwhile, Machado went into hiding and has not been seen in public since January 9, when she was briefly detained after joining supporters in what ended up being an underwhelming protest in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital.

The following day, Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term.

“We are living through times where our composure, our conviction and our organisation are being tested,” Machado said in a video message shared on Tuesday on social media.

“Times when our country needs even more dedication, because now, all these years of struggle, the dignity of the Venezuelan people, have been recognised with the Nobel Peace Prize.”

Machado won the award on October 10 for keeping “the flame of democracy burning amid a growing darkness”.

According to the head of the Nobel Institute, Machado has promised to go to Norway to pick up her prize on Wednesday.

“I was in contact with Machado last night [Friday], and she confirms that she will be in Oslo for the ceremony,” Kristian Berg Harpviken told the AFP news agency.

“Given the security situation, we cannot say more about the date or how she will arrive,” he said.

Greek coastguard says two survivors in critical condition have been hospitalised.

The bodies of at least 17 migrants and asylum seekers have been found in a partially deflated boat off the Greek island of Crete, according to the country’s coastguard.

The victims, as well as two survivors, were discovered on Saturday, some 26 nautical miles (48km) southwest of Crete.

A spokeswoman for the Greek coastguard told the AFP news agency that all of the victims were men.

“Two survivors in critical condition have been hospitalised,” the spokeswoman added. “Autopsies have to be carried out as the circumstances of the sinking are not known.”

The Athens News Agency reported that the boat was spotted by a Turkish cargo ship, which alerted the authorities. The Greek coastguard rushed two vessels to the scene, while the European Union’s border agency Frontex sent a boat, an aircraft and a Super Puma helicopter to help in the rescue effort.

The coastguard said that the two survivors had said their vessel had become unstable because of bad weather, and they had no way to cover up, nor to eat or drink anything.

The boat had also been taking on water when it was discovered.

Manolis Frangoulis, the mayor of Cretan port Ierapetra, told reporters that all the victims had been young.

“The vessel the migrants were on was deflated on two sides, which forced the passengers into a reduced space,” he added.

Coroners are looking at the possibility that the migrants died of dehydration, Greek state television channel ERT reported.

Over the last year, migrants and asylum seekers have turned their attention to the Greek island of Crete, in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, as a way of reaching EU territory from Libya, in North Africa.

According to the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, more than 16,770 people seeking asylum in the EU have arrived there since the start of the year.

In July, Greece’s conservative government, led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, suspended asylum hearings for migrants, particularly targeting those arriving on Crete from Libya.

Libya has been gripped by conflict since the 2011 overthrow and killing of longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi in a NATO-backed uprising.

The recent proposal by Russia to facilitate the negotiations between the Pakistani government and the Afghan Taliban is another indication that the security of the region is not a solo task. Islamabad has received the move by Moscow as a positive and genuinely good move aimed at helping stability in a region where geopolitics, militancy, and humanitarian forces come together. However, Pakistan has not changed its stance, and it is clear the Afghan land should in no way be utilized by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Al-Qaeda (AQ), Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), or any other armed proxy against Pakistan. Such a position is not a rhetorical argument or an opportunistic one; it is based on the verifiable facts, decades of diplomacy, and the mere fact that the sovereign borders should be considered.

Islamabad has not used ultimatums and isolation despite the articulateness of the Pakistani concerns. Starting in 2021, Pakistan has involved the Taliban regime by means of a mix of formal dialogue rounds, high-level diplomacy, institutional devices, and regional forums. A system of three dialogue rounds, including one within the Doha Agreement framework and two within the Istanbul track, was used to present hard intelligence of TTP, BLA, and AQ sanctuaries within Afghanistan. Such dossiers contained cross-border entry points, training camps and base areas, and command bases. The call of Pakistan has been the same: the terrorist networks need to be destroyed to achieve any lasting peace across the Durand Line.

This commitment is supported by the magnitude of the diplomatic outreach of Pakistan. Within four years, Islamabad has sent four foreign minister trips, two high-ranking defense/ISI trips, five special representative trips, five secretary trips, and an NSA trip to Kabul. In the meantime, institutional processes have also been busy with 8 Joint Coordination Committee meetings, 225 border flag meetings, 836 protest notes, and 13 formal demarches. Such diplomatic patience and endurance can be boasted of by very few states that have to go through cross-border terrorism. The history of Pakistan disapproves any indication of withdrawal; the attempts it has made are unparalleled in good spirit, consistency, and seeking peaceful solutions.

At the same time, Pakistan has used multilateral forums, the Moscow Format, and quadrilateral and trilateral structures to reinforce the argument that destroying TTP and BLA hideouts is not a bilateral problem but a security problem of the region. The issue of terrorism within Afghanistan does not just stay within the borders of Afghanistan, but it spreads all over South and Central Asia, destabilizing the economic routes, communities on the border, and counterterrorism models.

The issues that Pakistan is concerned with are not constructed out of speculation. The fact they were supported by hard evidence: 172 Tashkeel of almost 4,000 militants infiltrating Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; 83 Tashkeel into Balochistan; and the discovery of 214 Afghan nationals engaged in fighting Pakistani forces in 2025 alone. The suicide bombing of the G-11 Judicial Complex, Islamabad, on November 11 is the latest example. An Afghan national of Nangarhar was deployed by TTP/FAK leadership, and all the operational details, including lodging and preparation of the explosives, were coordinated across the border. The Pakistani agencies killed the cell, but the situation reiterated the seriousness of uncontrolled militant sanctuaries.

The evaluations of the international community reverberate the warnings put on Pakistan. Based on the 36th UN Analytical Support & Sanctions Monitoring Team Report (July 2025), it is evident that the Afghan Taliban administrations are still known to provide a free hand to various terrorist organizations. Al-Qaeda has fighters and training stations in the six provinces: Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Kunar, Uruzgan, and Zabul. Al-Qaeda-TTP integration of operations is further solidified through three new camps. The very Taliban officials support logistics, weapons, financing, and safe havens for the 6,000-strong TTP presence in Afghanistan, which is directly opposed by the official denials of Kabul.

This alienation between rhetoric and reality endangers the peace in the region. Although Pakistan is willing to have dialogue with the help of Russia or any other neutral party, it demands that the discussions be translated into action that is verifiable and irreversible. The demands of Islamabad are quite obvious: the TTP as well as the related leadership should be kept in check, entry points should be barred, the guest houses of the Taliban used by the militants should be closed down, the stipends and logistical channels should be stopped, and all entry points across the borders should be eliminated. Mediation efforts can only make sense then.

Furthermore, Pakistan has also indicated clearly that any subsequent significant terrorist attack being launched using the Afghan territory will be directly linked to TTP/BLA safe havens within the Afghan territory. In this eventuality, Pakistan will have the right to retaliate with a decisive action as provided in Article 51 of the UN Charter. It is not a question of escalation but the very right of self-defense that every sovereign nation has.

The mediation offer by Russia is diplomatic, but it can only be successful upon the goodwill of Kabul and not Islamabad’s. Pakistan has already shown that it is willing to engage with everyone without leaving a single channel of peaceful resolution. The only thing left is that the Afghan Taliban must put their words to the test and follow their promises with deeds as per international and bilateral agreements.

Counterterrorism collaboration should be based on transparency, verification, and shared responsibility to help the region to move towards sustainable peace. The aim of Pakistan is easy: to have secured borders, a stable neighborhood, and a mutually respectful relationship with Afghanistan. The diplomatic channel of Russia can contribute to the stability of the region by contributing to the achievement of this goal, which in turn is a welcome addition.

“Peace cannot be negotiated in abstraction; it must be built on the concrete dismantling of the forces that destroy it.”

Palestinians hope first Christmas tree lighting ceremony in three years will encourage tourists to return to the city, which has been undergoing a severe economic crisis.

Between Israel’s genocidal war on people in Gaza and near-daily Israeli assaults on Bethlehem and other cities across the occupied West Bank, Palestinians have endured great suffering over the past two years. They have had little to celebrate, and for the past years, all public Christmas celebrations were cancelled.

But Saturday brought a glimmer of hope to the crowds who gathered in Bethlehem’s Manger Square, outside of the Church of the Nativity, to watch the Christmas tree there be lit for the first time since 2022.

The lighting of the Christmas tree “was really some cheer that everybody needed”, said Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Bethlehem.

“I haven’t seen the square filled in quite a long time, and it was filled to the brim. Families were here, dignitaries, people who came from across the occupied West Bank and even Palestinian citizens of Israel.”

Bethlehem’s Christmas tree lighting ceremonies are “usually a lot rowdier and a lot more cheerful with dances and songs”, said Odeh.

However, this year’s two-hour celebrations were “subdued”, with “only hymns and prayers for peace”, she added.

Bethlehem, where Christians believe Jesus was born, is also suffering from a severe economic crisis, with many businesses that have been around for generations forced to shut their doors due to severe Israeli restrictions that cut it off from the rest of the world.

“Members of the family have moved to other countries just to keep living and support the others here. Of course, you can’t cover high expenses, high rent,” business owner Jack Gaccaman told Al Jazeera.

Hotels like Bethlehem’s Manger Hotel, just a few steps from the Nativity Church, have had very few guests for two years.

Some of them are just scraping by thanks to the occasional customer.

“Otherwise, here, it will be a disaster. When you abandon a car for two years, it will not work again. And this is what we did,” hotel owner Fares Banak told Al Jazeera.

Unemployment and poverty have risen across the occupied West Bank during the last two years.

“Unemployment is at 34 percent and the number of people living under the poverty line has increased. More than 40 percent are struggling to survive,” Samir Hazboun, a representative of the Bethlehem Chamber of Commerce, told Al Jazeera.

Bethlehem has also suffered from a historic drop in tourism.

According to the city’s Chamber of Commerce, Bethlehem experienced a 90 percent drop in its number of visitors compared with two years ago. It adds that, during this period, the city lost $1.5m a day.

At least Palestine boasts a long Christmas season – marking the significant date of December 25 for Western Christians and January 6 and 7 for Armenian and Eastern Orthodox Christians, respectively – finally culminating in the tree coming down on January 20.

Despite this year’s Christmas tree lighting ceremony being more subdued than in the past, Odeh said Palestinians in Bethlehem see it “as an opportunity to – on the one hand – give their kids some joy, but on the other tell the world that Bethlehem is open and ready to receive them” in the hopes of “breathing some life into their strangled economy”.

Barcelona extend their lead at the top of La Liga to four points but Real Betis give defending champions a late scare.

Ferran Torres hit a first-half hat-trick for Barcelona as they eased the woes on their travels with a 5-3 win in La Liga at Champions League chasing Real Betis.

The Spanish forward netted twice in the first 13 minutes of the game on Saturday – but not before the Seville-based hosts had opened the scoring through former Manchester United winger Antony.

Roony Bardghji slid home Barca’s third from just inside the box in the 31st minute.

Having netted with two close-range finishes early in the match, the second a well-executed volley, Torres then completed his hat-trick in the 40th minute with a deflected effort from outside the box.

Lamine Yamal appeared to have settled the match from the penalty spot in the 59th minute after Barca were controversially awarded the kick for handball.

Manchester United loanee Marcus Rashford, a teammate of Antony’s for the entirety of the latter’s Old Trafford career, hit a drive from the edge of the box which struck the arm of Marc Bartra. Betis protested their man’s arm was tight to his body, which was struck first, but the referee was convinced, courtesy of a VAR intervention.

Betis had a sting in the tail still to come when Fernando Llorente pulled one back with five minutes to play, while Cucho Hernandez converted a penalty in the final minute of normal time.

Six minutes of added time, thereafter, was not enough for Betis to prize a tight finish and deny Barca their moment as they moved four points clear of Real Madrid, who play Celta Vigo on Sunday.

The rise of Torres has been remarkable as he has grown from a bench player to become Hansi Flick’s most-used striker. The forward has more starts than Robert Lewandowski, who, at 37, is seeing his playing time reduced.

Torres leads Barcelona in scoring with 13 goals, 11 coming in La Liga. Only Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe, with 16, has more goals in the domestic league.

Lewandowski and Raphinha never left the bench for Barcelona. That will leave both rested for when Barcelona host Eintracht Frankfurt on Tuesday in the Champions League.

Fermín Lopez, meanwhile, returned as a second-half substitute after the Barcelona midfielder missed two games with a leg injury.

Elsewhere, Tajon Buchanan and Georges Mikautadze scored to help Villarreal beat Getafe 2-0 and stay in third place, one point behind Madrid.

Alaves upset Real Sociedad 1-0 in a Basque Country regional derby.

How do the legacies of empire continue to shape politics today? In his new book, Slow Poison: Idi Amin, Yoweri Museveni, and the Making of the Ugandan State, Mahmood Mamdani examines how colonial rule shaped Uganda’s political institutions and the leaders who emerged from them.

Mamdani also reflects on political change closer to home: His son, Zohran Mamdani, is poised to become the first Muslim mayor of New York City – a victory he says reveals deep generational shifts in US politics.

This week on UpFront, Marc Lamont Hill speaks with renowned scholar Mahmood Mamdani about colonial legacies, multipolarity, and what these shifts mean for global politics today.

Four people have been arrested after custard and apple crumble were flung at a display case containing part of the Crown Jewels in the Tower of London.

Police were called shortly before 10:00 GMT on Saturday after the case containing the Imperial State Crown – which is typically worn by the King at formal ceremonies – was defaced.

The Metropolitan Police said four people had been arrested on suspicion of criminal damage. The Tower’s Jewel House was temporarily closed to the public while the police investigated.

Take Back Power – which appears to be an offshoot of Just Stop Oil and which describes itself as a new non-violent civil resistance group – has claimed it was behind the incident.

The group said it carried out the stunt to demand the UK government establishes a permanent citizen’s assembly, or “House of the People”, with the power to “tax extreme wealth and fix Britain”.

Policing minister Sarah Jones said that the incident was “disgraceful”, adding: “There is a clear difference between the democratic right to protest and unacceptable behaviour.”

Footage shared by Take Back Power on social media showed one protester removing a large foil tray of crumble from a bag before slamming it against the glass protecting the Imperial State Crown.

Another then poured a tub of bright yellow custard on the front of the case.

“Democracy has crumbled,” one protester could be heard shouting. Another added: “Britain is broken. We’ve come here to the jewels of the nation to take back power.”

Meanwhile, surprised tourists could be seen reacting to the stunt.

Historic Royal Palaces confirmed that the Imperial State Crown was not damaged.

The Jewel House reopened to the public early in the afternoon.

This is the second demonstration claimed by the group in the past few days.

On Wednesday, three protesters emptied bags of manure onto the floor of the Ritz hotel lobby under its 25ft Christmas tree.

Take Back Power has emerged in recent weeks on social media channels used by Just Stop Oil activists. The environmental protest group refers to Take Back Power as a “new project”.

Just Stop Oil – responsible for a number of high-profile protests including throwing soup on Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers and climbing onto motorway gantries – announced it was ending its use of direct action in March.

The Imperial State Crown is a famous symbol of the monarchy and was worn by King Charles III as he left Westminster Abbey on his coronation day in 2023.

Beyond coronations, the priceless working crown is only used during formal occasions, such as the State Opening of Parliament.

When it is not being used, it is kept in the Jewel House at the Tower of London.

It was originally made in 1937 for the coronation of King George VI and contains 2,868 diamonds, 17 sapphires, 11 emeralds, four rubies and 269 pearls and weighs over a kilogram.

French authorities reportedly took defensive measures against five drones flying over an extremely sensitive base that is home to the nuclear submarines that make up the nation’s second-strike deterrent force. The incident is the latest in a string of incursions seen over military installations and other sensitive areas in Europe that some have linked to Russia.

The drones were reported over the Île Longue submarine base at about 7:30 PM local time Thursday, according to AFP. The base is located on the Crozon Peninsula in the westernmost part of France. The facility is the homeport for the French Navy’s four nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs): Le Triomphant, Le Téméraire, Le Vigilant, and Le Terrible.

After the drones were spotted, a “counter-drone and search operation was launched,” AFP reported, citing the gendarmerie. “The marine rifle battalion, which is responsible for protecting the base, carried out several anti-drone strikes.”

The marines “used a jammer, not a firearm,” against the drones, Public Prosecutor Frédéric Teillet said.

A French official confirmed to TWZ that there was an overflight on the Crozon Peninsula and that military personnel at the base “reacted promptly and appropriately in full accordance with protocol.”

That protocol, according to the official, holds that when there is a case of doubt about what is flying over a military base, “personnel are mobilized to detect and jam it.”

Despite efforts to stop the drones, none were brought down, and no operators were identified, the Rennes prosecutor’s office told AFP.

“Therefore, no link to foreign interference has been established,” added Teillet, the Public Prosecutor. His office has “jurisdiction over military matters,” and opened up an investigation into the incident, AFP noted.

Investigators “must, in particular, identify and interview the individuals who reported the sightings in order to confirm or deny that they were indeed drones” and determine “the type and number of devices,” the prosecutor explained.

“It is too early to characterize” the origin of the drones, Commander Guillaume Le Rasle, spokesperson for the maritime prefecture, told AFP. He did, however, believe that these flights over the Île Longue submarine base were “intended to alarm the population.” 

Still, “[s]ensitive infrastructure was not threatened by the overflight,” Le Rasle explained.

Thursday was not the first time drones have flown over the restricted area on the Crozon Peninsula. There was an overflight reported “during the night of Nov. 17-18,” AFP stated.

The first reported incursion near the facility took place a decade ago, according to the French Le Telegramme news outlet.

“The detection of a drone flying near the highly secretive base for nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) triggered an impressive deployment of forces on Tuesday morning on the Crozon peninsula, south of Brest,” the publication reported in January 2015. “The overflight occurred at a critical moment: just as an SSBN was about to move.”

The reported incursion over the French submarine base comes amid a rash of such sightings across Europe that have sparked military responses and closed civilian airports.

Earlier this week, there was a reported incursion in Ireland as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was arriving.

“Four unidentified military style drones breached a no-fly zone and flew towards the flight path of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plane at sea near Dublin Airport late on Monday night,” The Journal, an Irish publication, reported. “The plane landed, slightly ahead of schedule, just moments before the incident happened at about 11 p.m. The drones reached the location where Zelensky’s plane was expected to be at the exact moment it had been due to pass.”

On Friday, CBS News confirmed that “[u]nidentified drones breached Ireland’s airspace this week” during Zelensky’s visit.

As we have frequently reported, Europe has experienced dozens of drone sightings that have temporarily closed airports and buzzed military facilities. In many instances, the armed forces of those countries have had to intervene. In one such example, the Dutch military last month “opened fire at drones over Volkel Air Base in the east of the country, but no wreckage was recovered,” the Ministry of Defense said.

“Security staff at the base reported the drones between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m…prompting the air force to fire ground-based weapons to take them down,” the ministry said in a statement, according to ABC News.

Volkel is one of several bases in Europe where the U.S. military keeps B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs, which could be released to select NATO members for use on their aircraft as part of the alliance’s nuclear weapon sharing agreements.

European leaders have suggested Moscow might be behind at least some of these drone overflights.

Denmark has called drones of unknown origin flying over its airspace part of a “hybrid attack.” While some officials there have stopped short of saying definitively who is responsible, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen suggested it could be Moscow, calling Russia the primary “country that poses a threat to European security.”

“It’s possible,” that there is a Russian connection to the drone incursions, “but there are currently no concrete indications,” Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken said earlier this year. “That needs to be investigated. Personally, I think these drones are very often an example of a hybrid threat. This is a way to sow unrest. That has been Russia’s pattern for many years.”

Still, little proof has emerged of such a connection, which the Kremlin denies.

In an earlier story about incursions over Germany, we noted that: “it is quite possible that many, if not most of these sightings are mistaken identity. It is a pattern that emerged last year when thousands of people claimed to see drones in the New Jersey region of the U.S. The overwhelming majority of those sightings were airplanes, planets and other benign objects in the sky.”

“… just like in the New Jersey case, we do know that a significant number of the sightings over military bases were confirmed by the government. The reality is that these drone incursions over critical facilities in Europe have been happening for years, but just how much it has exploded in recent weeks is blurred by media reports and sightings not supported by independent analysis or corroborated by sensor data.”

However, the U.S., as we have frequently reported, has seen numerous drone incursions over military facilities like those over Langley Air Force Base in 2023, as well as Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Picatinny Arsenal, and others late last year that we were the first to report. There were numerous incursions over bases in Europe as well, which we were also the first to report. To date, the operators of the drones spotted over U.S. or NATO ally bases have not been definitively identified.

Overall, security challenges posed by the uncrewed aerial systems only continue to grow, as now underscored by the newly reported intrusion over Ile Longue.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Whilst the Abraham Accords have held throughout the war in Gaza, there can be no doubt they have changed. It is clear that we are no longer in the era of normalization that we saw in 2020. Arab states like Saudi Arabia are hesitant to make high-profile deals with Israel; a December 2023 poll showed that 96% of Saudis wanted Arab states to cut ties with Israel during the Gaza War. A practical solution to this issue is triangulation—third countries that host, finance, or oversee less public deals. This would shift the center of cooperation to a third country, entrenching economic ties and spreading both the benefits and reputational risk. Perhaps most importantly, it creates countries outside of bilateral agreements that have a stake in keeping the gears of the Accords turning. These quiet triangles are not a substitute for those normalization deals; they are a bridge to stability and ultimately more high-profile announcements, culminating in normalization with Saudi Arabia.

The first phase of the Accords was heavy on optics—summits, highly publicized Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs), and big press conferences. Since then, crises in the Middle East have pushed cooperation off camera. ‘Quieter’ forms of cooperation like trade have held steady since October 7th. In fact, trade between Israel and the UAE increased by 11% in 2024 compared to 2023. This happened largely thanks to the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which removed tariffs on 96% of goods and streamlined customs on most goods. Thus, a rules-based system was created that kept trade flowing, even when it was deemed too dangerous for Israelis to be in the UAE.

With trade holding throughout the Gaza War, third-country triangulation presents opportunities to get the Accords back on track. The case study for effective triangulation is I2U2, launched in July 2022, which brought together India, Israel, the UAE, and the US in practical sectors—food, water, energy, transport, health, and space. The joint statement by the leaders committed the UAE to invest up to $2 billion in integrated food parks in India. India would provide land and regulatory facilitation. US and Israeli private sectors would supply technologies across the chain. I2U2 also gave the green light to a 300 MW hybrid renewable energy project in Gujarat. These are formal commitments, although somewhat under the radar—and yet they have deepened relations between Israel and the UAE in a joint project.

The value of I2U2 lies in its architecture: a neutral venue in India, Emirati capital, and US-Israeli tech working together in measurable sectors is precisely the template that must be replicated. However, delivery has been slow, with projects moving at policy speed, rather than startup pace. But the goal is to build durable and sustainable frameworks, not short-term projects. The slow speed is therefore not a flaw but a cost of a system that outlasts political tensions.

A crucial consideration is the location of these projects. Triangulation can often collapse when tensions peak. The 2022 Jordan-UAE-Israel water and energy deal, known as ‘Project Prosperity,’ is the clearest cautionary example of this. The project proposed to use UAE-backed solar capacity, built in Jordan, to export electricity to Israel. Israel would then, in return, supply desalinated water to Jordan. The deal brought opposition even before it was signed. In Jordan, in 2021, thousands protested against it, and in November 2023, Jordan confirmed that they would not sign the deal, citing ‘Israel’s barbarism in Gaza’ as the reason. This does not invalidate the model. It does, however, emphasize its constraints. When the host country is directly exposed to the politics of the conflict, as Jordan is, it raises public backlash and therefore stalls development. Thus, it is crucial to create buffers. For example, if costs are front-loaded, it becomes expensive to cancel. Low visibility milestones, before any grandstanding, will allow for slow but steady development.

In stark contrast, the 2022 EU-Egypt-Israel gas framework shows how triangulation can overcome this issue. Israeli gas goes to Egypt’s Idku and Damietta plants, where it is treated and sent to European buyers. While the exports have not been constant, the route has stayed open. This is because the value is processed in a third venue and sold to a fourth constituency in the EU. By utilizing existing infrastructure and contracts while being grounded in bureaucracy rather than the state directly, the deal was allowed to function away from political posturing. In contrast, Prosperity placed the solar plant, its core asset, in Jordan, with few external buyers and few sunk costs; therefore, pausing the deal had little effect on either party. Prosperity reflected politics. Like I2U2, the deal with Egypt reflects business interests and thus far more stability.

Saudi Arabia is the scaler of triangulation. Riyadh has already taken the meaningful step to open its airspace to all carriers. The next strategically valuable project that Saudi can invest in is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The Saudi segments of the route include rail links, dry ports, and standards. These segments are all low-visibility, high-impact infrastructure that anchors cooperation without triggering domestic backlash. Crucially, these steps can be taken without formal recognition, which Saudi public opinion is not ready to support. The US and Saudi Arabia look to be coming to an agreement on a defense package. This deal can be utilized as leverage to create concrete milestones for IMEC. If Saudi helps move this corridor towards construction, it will do more to stabilize the Accords than any summit. In the Middle East, it is far easier to reverse speeches and words than sunk costs and investment into projects like IMEC. Saudi Arabia can act, quietly and without domestic backlash, to knit the architecture of the second phase of the Accords.

The Accords do not need another summit. They need projects that hold because of strong structures, despite a volatile Middle East. By building in third countries, front-loading sunk costs, and not having state-run projects, triangulation can be incredibly effective. I2U2 shows the success of this template, Project Prosperity shows its limits, and the EU-Egypt-Israel gas route shows its durability. Saudi corridors can be the scaler for these projects. Quiet triangles, not grandstanding, will not only keep the Accords alive but also deepen and strengthen them, allowing the Accords to ultimately grow.

At the Doha Forum, UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese outlined how US sanctions imposed over her Gaza reports have effectively removed her from the global financial system. She said the measures, which she calls unlawful, have had a major impact on her everyday life.

At the Doha Forum, Ukraine’s representative warned Russia’s invasions have created a ‘new law of power’ that will allow strong states to occupy weaker ones unless the international system is restored. He urged experienced mediators and stronger, enforceable rules to deter aggression.

At the Doha Forum, Qatar’s PM said Gaza talks remain at a “critical moment,” stressing the current arrangement is only a pause, not a full ceasefire. He said key conditions including Israeli withdrawal, are still unmet, leaving the deal incomplete despite recent progress.

Senior Ukrainian and US negotiators have jointly called on Russia to show a “serious commitment to long-term peace” after talks in Moscow earlier this week failed to produce a breakthrough.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security council, have held two days of what a statement described as “constructive discussions” in Florida.

The prospect of ending the war depended on Russia’s readiness to take “steps towards de-escalation and cessation of killing”, the statement said.

Overnight, Russia launched 653 drones and 51 missiles against Ukraine, most of which were downed, authorities said.

One strike hit a railway hub at the town of Fastiv outside Kyiv, damaging a depot and rolling stock.

Ukraine’s energy ministry said Russian attacks had hit energy facilities in eight regions, causing blackouts. Moscow has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector and infrastructure in recent weeks.

“Russia continues to disregard any peace efforts and instead strikes critical civilian infrastructure,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said.

“This shows that no decisions to strengthen Ukraine and raise pressure on Russia can be delayed. And especially not under the pretext of peace process,” he added.

At the Florida talks, Witkoff and Umerov “agreed on the framework of security arrangements” that could such an agreement and “discussed necessary deterrence capabilities to sustain a lasting peace”, their statement said without giving further details.

The negotiations, which are also attended by US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, will continue for a third day on Saturday.

The Florida talks saw Ukraine’s team briefed on the meeting between Trump’s most senior overseas envoy and Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week.

Witkoff spent almost five hours with Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, after which the Kremlin said “no compromise” had been reached on the draft US peace plan.

The Kremlin said Putin was ready to continue meeting the Americans “as many times as needed”, but Ukraine and its allies in Europe have called into question the Russian leader’s commitment to ending the war.

On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he wanted to “obtain full information about what was said in Moscow and what other pretexts Putin has come up with to drag out the war”.

Kyiv pushed for revisions to the US peace plan, which was widely seen as favourable to Moscow when an initial version leaked to the media. It has since undergone several changes, though a more recent version has not been shared publicly.

Major points of contention remain between the two sides, including security guarantees for Ukraine post-war and territorial concessions.

Russia currently controls roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including swathes of the Donbas area in the east – made up of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In an interview with India Today on Friday, Putin warned Ukrainian troops to withdraw fully from the region this week, saying Russia would otherwise “liberate these [Donbas] territories by force”.

Ahead of the US visit to the Kremlin, Putin was filmed in army fatigues at a Russian command post, being briefed by commanders claiming they had captured the strategic city of Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk region, as well as other nearby settlements.

Ukraine rejects Russia’s claim that it has lost control of the city.

Kyiv and its European allies believe the most effective way to deter Russia from attacking again in the future would be to grant Ukraine membership of Nato, or to provide comprehensive security guarantees.

Russia is staunchly opposed, while Trump too has repeatedly signalled he has no intention of letting Ukraine join the military alliance.

The prospect of Ukraine joining Nato was a “key question” that was tackled in Moscow, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.

Trump said those talks were “reasonably good”, but it was too soon to say what would happen as “it does take two to tango”.

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

This week’s second caption reads:

Airman 1st Class Alexandra Ayub walks through a blast door to deliver a meal to the missileers manning the launch control center which is approximately 60 feet beneath the missile alert facility. (U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Andrew Lee) 

Also, a reminder:

Prime Directives!

• If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you. 
• If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
• No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like. 
• Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.  
• So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on. 
• Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.

The Bunker is open!

On the eve of the 74th Miss Universe pageant in Bangkok, an unexpected confrontation exposed the tense power dynamics behind the glamour. During a closed-door session, Fátima Bosch, Mexico’s representative, was publicly insulted by Nawat Itsaragrisil, the director of Miss Universe Thailand, who then ordered security to remove her from the room. The incident triggered a rare moment of collective resistance as several contestants stood in solidarity with Bosch, challenging the atmosphere of intimidation imposed by pageant leadership. This encounter, however, was more than a single clash of personalities; it revealed long-standing structural problems within the global beauty pageant system.

First, the power dynamics displayed during the incident with Nawat Itsaragrisil reveal how contestants are routinely positioned as subjects rather than agents. The director’s ability to insult Bosch publicly and threaten her with security demonstrates the imbalance between the institution and the women who participate in it. His demand that contestants stay seated underscores how obedience and silence are rewarded, while dissent is punished. This dynamic exemplifies the patriarchal control that beauty pageants often exert over women’s bodies, voices, and behavior.

Second, the public controversy that followed Bosch’s win exposes another damaging characteristic of beauty pageants: women’s achievements become instantly delegitimized. The scrutiny Bosch faces, including speculation about corruption and expectations that she justify her victory, illustrates how beauty contests encourage constant comparison, criticism, and suspicion toward female competitors. Instead of celebrating her accomplishments, audiences and commentators questioned whether she deserved the crown, reinforcing the idea that women must continually prove their worth in ways male leaders or celebrities are rarely required to.

Additionally, beauty pageants foster unrealistic and exclusionary standards of beauty. Even as modern pageants attempt to promote inclusivity, they continue to rank women according to appearance, demeanor, and performance; criteria deeply rooted in patriarchal traditions. Nonetheless, these competitions can trigger or worsen issues such as low self-esteem, depression, anxiety, and eating disorders, especially among younger audiences who internalize the message that beauty equates to value.

Moreover, this controversy highlights a troubling paradox: in many countries, especially those where women lack political representation, the pageant stage becomes one of the few platforms where women can gain visibility or advocate for social causes. This creates a contradicting and harmful scenario: women must first conform to beauty standards shaped by male-dominated institutions in order to later challenge those very structures. It is very problematic that a woman’s voice is amplified only after her appearance has been validated by a global beauty competition.

Finally, the association of the pageant with political and economic scandals reveals another layer of systemic harm. Women like Bosch often become entangled in narratives shaped entirely by powerful men, institutions, and media outlets. Although she had no involvement in the financial or criminal allegations surrounding stakeholders of the pageant, the scandal overshadowed her achievements and placed an unfair burden on her to address issues far beyond her control. Beauty pageants, in this sense, not only objectify women physically but also instrumentalize their public image for the benefit, or protection, of larger political and corporate interests.

Ultimately, the controversy surrounding Fátima Bosch is not merely about individual misconduct or disputed results. It exposes a system in which women’s value is filtered through appearance, obedience, and institutional interests. Critique should not fall on the women who participate, many of whom use the platform to advocate for meaningful causes, but on the structures that elevate their voices only when they conform to established norms. Until those structures are challenged, beauty pageants will continue to reproduce the very inequalities they claim to overcome.

Rescue teams and volunteers have been struggling to assist millions of people affected by floods and landslides in parts of Asia, as the official death toll from the ongoing climate-fuelled disaster has climbed to more than 1,750 people in the worst-affected countries of Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand.

In Indonesia, at least 867 people were confirmed dead and 521 were still missing, according to the latest data on Saturday from the island of Sumatra in Aceh province, where more than 800,000 people have also been displaced.

In Sri Lanka, the government has confirmed 607 deaths, with another 214 people missing and feared dead, in what President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has called the country’s most challenging natural disaster.

The floods also caused at least 276 deaths in Thailand, while two people were killed in Malaysia and two people died in Vietnam after heavy rains triggered more than a dozen landslides, according to state media.

On Indonesia’s Sumatra, many survivors were still struggling to recover from the flash floods and landslides that hit last week as Indonesia’s meteorological agency warned Aceh could see “very heavy rain” through Saturday, with North and West Sumatra also at risk.

Aceh Governor Muzakir Manaf said response teams were still searching for bodies in “waist-deep” mud.

However, starvation was one of the gravest threats now hanging over remote and inaccessible villages, he said.

“Many people need basic necessities. Many areas remain untouched in the remote areas of Aceh,” he told reporters.

“People are not dying from the flood, but from starvation. That’s how it is.”

Entire villages had been washed away in the rainforest-cloaked Aceh Tamiang region, Muzakir said.

“The Aceh Tamiang region is completely destroyed from the top to the bottom, down to the roads and down to the sea.

“Many villages and sub-districts are now just names,” he said.

In Sri Lanka, where more than two million people – nearly 10 percent of the population- have been affected, officials warned on Friday of continuing heavy rains causing new landslide risks.

Sri Lanka’s Disaster Management Centre (DMC) said more than 71,000 homes were damaged, including nearly 5,000 that were destroyed by last week’s floods and landslides.

The DMC said on Friday that more rain was expected in many parts of the country, including the worst-affected central region, triggering fears of more landslides, hampering cleanup operations.

Climate change, logging contribute to disasters

Last week’s flood came as two typhoons and a cyclone swept through the region at the same time, causing heavy rains, which experts told Al Jazeera are becoming more likely due to climate change.

Illegal logging, often linked to the global demand for palm oil, also contributed to the severity of the disaster in Sumatra, where photographs of the aftermath showed many tree logs washed downstream.

Indonesia is among the countries with the largest annual forest loss due to mining, plantations and fires, and has seen the clearance of large tracts of its lush rainforest in recent decades.

Indonesia’s Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni said on Friday that his office was revoking the logging licences of 20 companies, covering an area of ​​750,000 hectares (1.8m acres), including in flood-affected areas in Sumatra, Indonesia’s Antara news agency reported.

Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq also “immediately” halted the activities of palm oil, mining, and power plant companies operating upstream of the disaster-hit areas in northern Sumatra on Saturday, according to Antara.

The Batang Toru and Garoga watersheds are strategic areas with ecological and social functions that must not be compromised,” Hanif said.

Febi Dwirahmadi, Indonesian programme coordinator for the Centre for Environment and Population Health at Griffith University in Australia, told Al Jazeera that rainforest cover “acts like a sponge” absorbing water during heavy rainfall.

Following deforestation, which is also contributing to making climate change worse, there is nothing to slow down the heavy rainfall as it enters waterways, Dwirahmadi said.

Politicians approve the controversial conscription law after months of heated debate, amid fears over a potential war with Russia.

About 3,000 people have taken to the streets of Berlin to protest against Germany’s new military service bill, after Bundestag politicians backed the legislation intended to bolster the country’s armed forces.

Germany’s parliament approved the controversial conscription legislation on Friday after months of heated debate. It comes amid a pledge by NATO allies to increase defence spending, boosting Europe’s defence capabilities amid fears Russia’s war on Ukraine could spill across its borders.

Tess Datzer, an 18-year-old protester in the German capital, said she felt it was unfair for her generation to have to go to war “for a country that does little for us”.

“There is no investment in our pensions, not in our future, not in the climate. I don’t see any good reasons why our generation should have to go to war,” she told the AFP news agency.

Protest organiser Ronja Ruh said an “unbelievable amount of money is being spent on the military and armament” in Germany, while funds are lacking in basic public services.

“When we look at schools in particular, there is outdated technology, far too few teachers, dilapidated school buildings,” she said.

The military service bill sets ambitious expansion goals for the Bundeswehr, as Germany’s armed forces are known, with a target of up to 260,000 active soldiers – up from 183,000 currently – and 200,000 reservists by 2035.

It introduces a dual-track system to boost recruits: a more lucrative voluntary service intended to attract young recruits, but if enlistment falls short, lawmakers can now activate needs-based conscription.

To do so, the politicians would be required to hold a Bundestag vote. If more people are eligible for conscription than needed, recruits may be randomly selected.

All men born after January 1, 2008, will undergo medical evaluation, in a move not seen since Germany suspended conscription in 2011. Both 18-year-old men and women will be asked to declare their willingness to serve, though only men must respond.

Countries across Europe – including France, Italy and Belgium, as well as the Nordic and Baltic states – are moving to expand voluntary service and strengthen mandatory conscription in their armed forces in response to Russian provocation.

European leaders and intelligence services believe Russia could mount an assault elsewhere on the continent, with Germany’s top military official, Carsten Breuer, saying in 2024 that Moscow could be ready to attack NATO countries in five to eight years’ time.

In late November, announcing the reintroduction of a limited form of military service in France 25 years after conscription was formally ended, President Emmanuel Macron said, “the only way to avoid danger is to prepare for it”.

“We need to mobilise, mobilising the nation to defend itself, to be ready and remain respected,” he said.

In the meantime, European leaders have accused Moscow of engaging in a form of hybrid warfare – including infrastructure sabotage, drone infiltrations and cyberattacks – as President Vladimir Putin tests NATO’s limits.

United States President Donald Trump’s apparent waning commitment to the alliance – accusing Europe of taking advantage of Washington and calling on the continent to become more militarily self-reliant – has also pushed European leaders to act.

Relations have soured between former allies Afghanistan and Pakistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

Afghanistan and Pakistan’s forces have exchanged heavy fire along their border as tensions between the South Asian neighbours escalate after peace talks in Saudi Arabia failed to produce a breakthrough.

Officials from both sides said the skirmishes broke out late on Friday night, with the two countries accusing one another of opening fire first.

In a post on X, the spokesman for Afghanistan’s Taliban government, Zabihullah Mujahid, said Pakistani forces had “launched attacks towards” the Spin Boldak district in the Kandahar province, prompting Afghan forces to respond.

A spokesman for Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said it was the Afghan forces who carried out “unprovoked firing” along the Chaman border.

“Pakistan remains fully alert and committed to ensuring its territorial integrity and the safety of our citizens,” spokesman Mosharraf Zaidi said in a statement.

Unfortunately, this evening the Pakistani side once again launched attacks towards Afghanistan in the Spin Boldak district of Kandahar, prompting the Islamic Emirate forces to respond.

— Zabihullah (..ذبـــــیح الله م ) (@Zabehulah_M33) December 5, 2025

Residents on the Afghan side of the border told the AFP news agency that the exchange of fire broke out around 10:30pm local time (18:00 GMT) and lasted about two hours.

Ali Mohammad Haqmal, head of Kandahar’s information department, told AFP that Pakistan forces attacked with “light and heavy artillery” and that mortar fire had struck civilian homes.

“The clashes have ended, both sides agreed to stop,” he added.

There were no immediate reports of casualties from either side.

Strained ties

Relations have soured between Afghanistan and Pakistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, largely due to Islamabad’s accusations that Kabul is providing sanctuary to several armed groups, including the Pakistan Taliban (TTP).

The TTP has waged a sustained campaign against the Pakistani state since 2007 and is often described as the ideological twin of the Afghan Taliban. Most recently, on Wednesday, a roadside bombing in Pakistan near the Afghan border claimed by the TTP killed three Pakistani police officers.

Pakistan also accuses Afghanistan of sheltering the Balochistan Liberation Army and a local ISIL/ISIS affiliate known as the ISKP – even though the ISKP is a sworn enemy of the Afghan Taliban.

The Afghan Taliban denies the charges, saying it cannot be held responsible for security inside Pakistan, and has accused Islamabad of intentionally spreading misinformation and provoking border tensions.

A week of deadly fighting on their shared border erupted in October, triggered after Islamabad demanded that Kabul rein in the fighters stepping up attacks in Pakistan.

About 70 people were killed on both sides of the border and hundreds more wounded before Afghan and Pakistani officials signed a ceasefire agreement in Qatar’s capital Doha on October 19.

That agreement, however, has been followed by a series of unsuccessful talks hosted by Qatar, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia aimed at cementing a longer-term truce.

The latest round of talks, held in Saudi Arabia last weekend, failed to produce a breakthrough, although both sides agreed to continue their fragile ceasefire.

Despite the truce, Kabul has accused its neighbour of carrying out repeated air strikes in Afghanistan’s eastern provinces over recent weeks.

One attack reportedly carried out by the Pakistani military on a house in Afghanistan’s southeastern Khost province in late November reportedly killed nine children and a woman. Pakistan denied that it carried out any such attack.

It’s just two weeks to go until the final of Strictly Come Dancing 2025, and things are heating up on the ballroom floor.

Saturday night sees the return of Musicals week, which will feature songs from The Phantom of the Opera and Guys and Dolls, among others.

There will also be a new dance relay performance to open the show, which will see all of the remaining couples take to the floor.

Musicals week will also see some special guest appearances, from Paddington Bear to the cast of hit West End show Titanique.

Warning: The section below includes spoilers from last week’s Strictly

Last Saturday, Lewis and Katya made Strictly history by winning the first-ever Instant Dance challenge.

Before the challenge, Karen and Amber both scored perfect 40s – it was Karen’s first of the series.

It was another strong week for George and Alexis, with judge Craig Revel Horwood telling the pair their Quickstep was “a joy to watch”.

But Alex and Johannes didn’t fare as well on the leaderboard with their Cha Cha Cha.

Two celebrities ended up in Sunday night’s dance off – Balvinder Sopal and Alex Kingston.

And in the end, the judges decided to save Balvinder, meaning Alex became the latest star to exit the contest.

This year’s Strictly has seen a number of new challenges that are shaking up the format of the show.

Hot on the heels of last week’s Instant Dance challenge, there’s another new addition to this week’s show.

This time, it’s a “dance relay”, which will take place at the start of Saturday night’s show.

The five-minute challenge will see each pair take to the floor as part of a celebration of musicals.

Songs from shows including My Fair Lady, Oliver!, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang and Mary Poppins Returns will all feature, as the remaining couples battle for viewers’ votes.

Musicals Week will also see the professionals perform Cell Block Tango from Chicago, as well as performances from former Strictly contestant Tom Fletcher alongside Paddington Bear who is making his Strictly debut.

It’s approaching crunch time in the show, with the grand final taking place on 20 December.

At this stage, things can get very unpredictable. Even a decent score can land you in the bottom half of the leaderboard, and with so few couples remaining, there’s everything to play for.

And on Sunday night, two more couples will face the dreaded dance-off, with another set to be sent home.

Strictly Come Dancing is on Saturday at 18:50 on BBC One and BBC iPlayer.

The U.S. Navy has chosen the LST-100 from Dutch shipbuilder Damen to be the basis of a new class of Medium Landing Ships, or LSMs. The service’s goal now is to have received the first of those ships before the end of the decade, avoiding setbacks that have become worryingly commonplace with Navy shipbuilding programs in recent years. The planned acquisition of a fleet of 35 LSMs, which has been long delayed, is seen as central to enabling still-evolving U.S. Marine Corps’ expeditionary and distributed concepts of operations.

The Navy announced the LSM decision today in a video on social media that includes statements from Secretary of the Navy John Phelan, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle, and Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. Eric Smith. This follows a similar video announcement last week, wherein the service disclosed its decision to cancel the Constellation class frigate program. Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) separately confirmed to TWZ that it is hoping to see construction of the first LST-100-based LSM start in 2026 and to take delivery of that ship in 2029. These ships are primarily expected to be used for ferrying relatively small Marine units, especially between far-flung islands, without the need for access to established port facilities, in future conflicts in the Pacific region.

“As I announced last week, we are fundamentally reshaping how the Navy builds and fields its fleet. Today, I’m taking the second major step in that effort, selecting the design for our Medium Landing Ship, an operationally driven, fiscally disciplined choice that puts capability in the fleet on a responsible timeline,” Secretary Phelan says in today’s video. “Last month, with the concurrence of the Commandant [of the Marine Corps] and the Chief of Naval Operations, I approved the LSM design selection [of] the LST-100 landing ship transport, a roughly 4,000-ton ship with a range of more than 3,400 nautical miles that gives us the right balance of capability, affordability, and speed to field.”

The baseline LST-100 design is approximately 328 feet (100 meters) long, some 52.5 feet (16 meters) wide, and can reach a top speed of 14 knots, according to Damen.

The ship can load and unload vehicles, personnel, and other cargo directly onto a beach via clamshell doors in the bow. There is also a loading ramp at the stern. In addition, the ship, with a standard crew of 18, can deploy smaller landing craft and otherwise maneuver large payloads from within the hull with the help of a large crane on the deck at the bow end. The vessel has a flight deck at the stern designed to accommodate an NH-90 or similar-sized helicopter, as well. Overall, it has the capacity to carry up to 234 troops and nearly 11,000 square feet (1,020 square meters) of roll-on/roll-off cargo space.

“The LST-100’s cargo capacity, helicopter capacity, berthing, and crane make it an excellent choice for the Marine Corps requirement of no less than 35 Medium Landing Ships to support naval expeditionary forces,” Marine Gen. Smith also says in today’s video. “The Medium Landing Ships will enable our Marines to be more agile and flexible in austere environments where there are no ports providing the joint force the needed operational mobility within the adversary’s Weapons Engagement Zone.”

“No significant changes are planned to the baseline LST-100 design,” NAVSEA has told TWZ. “The Navy will award Engineering Services to Damen to support incorporation of class-standard equipment, and to ensure design documentation that supports Buy American Act requirements, other regulatory mandates, and maximize the platform’s long-term sustainability.”

As mentioned, the Marines view the planned LSM fleet as critical to the service’s new expeditionary and distributed concepts of operations, which are still being refined more than five years after they were first unveiled. Future Marine operations are expected to focus heavily on the rapid deployment and redeployment of relatively small forces to far-flung locales to create complications for opponents, especially within the context of a larger island-hopping scenario in the Pacific.

The Navy and Marine Corps have been going back and forth on plans for what was originally dubbed the Light Amphibious Warship for years now. In December 2024, the Navy announced it was axing an expected request for proposals for the rebranded LSM effort, citing “affordability concerns.” The following month, the service said it had begun looking at existing commercially available designs to get the program moving again.

“A year ago, the Navy canceled the LSM request for proposals when the conceptual design produced bids that were simply unaffordable,” Adm. Caudle explained in the video announcement today. “We applied common sense, went back to basics, and reassessed the program. We identified proven in-service designs that meet the Commandant’s requirements, and then scrutinized them for reducibility performance and trade-offs.”

At least one LST-100, which was notably built at the Albwardy Damen yard in Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, is in service with the Nigerian Navy, which also has a second example on order. In 2024, the Australian government also selected the LST-100 design as the starting point to meet its Landing Craft Heavy requirements. The ships for the Royal Australian Navy are set to be built in that country by Austal.

“We will competitively award a vessel construction manager to oversee the LSM program, drive execution, and facilitate genuine competition among multiple shipyards,” Secretary Phelan said in today’s announcement.

In April, NAVSEA had put out a contracting notice announcing its intention to secure data rights to the LST-100 design, which would significantly expand opportunities for domestic production of the ships, as well as subcomponents, in the United States. U.S. government ownership of the rights also means the Navy will not be locked into a particular vendor in the future.

“The Navy secured rights to the technical data package from Damen for a cost of $3,296,356 and has appropriate rights to build and maintain the LSM fleet,” NAVSEA has confirmed to TWZ. “The Navy intends to build at multiple US shipyards. Foreign shipyards are not anticipated.”

Choosing the existing LST-100 design is being very actively presented as a way to help keep schedule and other risks, as well as cost growth, down, as well.

“This non-developmental build-to-print approach drives down cost, schedule, and technical risk for both the Navy and industry,” according to Secretary Phelan. “Working with Congress, we’re embracing commercial practices and speed.”

“We are also changing how we do business in shipbuilding. Starting from a complete 3D design and working hand in hand with the designer, the Navy is incorporating a disciplined set of class standard equipment so that this ship is maintainable, repairable, and able to meet its operational availability targets in the real world, not just on paper,” per Adm. Caudle. “Once those standards are baked in, the design will be truly production-ready, needing only to be tailored to each shipbuilder’s specific production process.”

It is important to point out here that the Navy had outlined a similar plan for the abortive Constellation class frigate, the design of which was derived from an existing, in-production Franco-Italian ‘parent.’ In the end, Navy-directed changes led to a ship that was fundamentally different, causing delays, cost growth, and other issues, as you can read more about here. This all ultimately contributed to the program’s cancellation. Caudle’s comments above look to be in direct reference to some of those pitfalls, including the fact that work had started on the first-in-class USS Constellation class before the underlying design was anywhere close to being finalized.

As mentioned, NAVSEA says it is targeting 2026 for the start of construction of the first LSM, which it hopes to have in hand in 2029. “The Navy is working to accelerate the delivery of this urgently needed capability,” the command also told us today.

How long it might be before the full fleet of 35 LSMs is delivered remains to be seen. The Navy and the Marines have already been working to acquire a number of interim ships, as well as using contracted vessels, to help provide various aspects of the new expeditionary and distributed concepts of operations that the LSMs are intended to support.

The Navy has also talked in the past about acquiring some number of interim LSMs from Bollinger Shipyards, possibly utilizing a design the company developed for Israel called the Israeli Logistics Support Vessel (ILSV). The ILSV was itself derived from an open-ocean optimized subclass of the General Frank S. Besson class Logistics Support Vessel (LSV) that is in service now as part of the U.S. Army’s obscure watercraft fleet, which you can learn more about here.

“The Navy expects to build at least one LSM at Bollinger Shipyards,” NAVSEA has told TWZ.

As an aside, former Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro had announced in January that the first LSM would be named USS McClung in honor of “U.S. Naval Academy graduate and Public Affairs Officer Major Megan M.L. McClung, USMC, who was killed in action while serving in Iraq.” In responding to TWZ‘s queries today, NAVSEA says there has been no change to the naming plan.

Overall, “the Department [of the Navy] will continue to innovate and reform our shipbuilding approach, integrating hard learned lessons from prior Navy shipbuilding efforts, proven commercial best practices, and streamlined acquisition,” Secretary Phelan said today. “It is the dawn of a new age for Navy shipbuilding.”

The Navy is now looking to the LST-100-based LSM, a key development for supporting future Marine Corps operations and the first big decision regarding a new class of ships since Constellation, to be an important cornerstone in that new shipbuilding future.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Strategic planners in the Indo-Pacific region will likely face an unsettling week after the latest reports. The Trump administration is making its way through negotiations for yet another trade deal with Taiwan. However, this trade deal is going to be different, as officials will start to demand more than just factories. In exchange for a temporary pause from Trump’s outrageous 20 percent tariff, the White House will demand Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, namely TSMC, train the employees and transfer the knowledge to the AEB ‘science park’ that sustains Taiwan’s economy.

On the surface, it appears that the US is winning the race for American self-sufficiency, and it closes the most critical gap in Washington’s strategy. However, for the rest of the Indo-Pacific, and most importantly, for Australia, this is a dangerous repositioning. Washington is no longer attempting to buy chips from Taiwan. Instead, Washington is attempting to buy the entirety of the services from Taiwan. In doing so, it is risking the ‘Silicon Shield’ that has maintained peace across the Taiwan Strait for decades.

The Shift from Hardware to Human Capital

In the past three years’ discussions of the “de-risking” of chip supply chains, the focus has predominantly been on the hardware. The reasoning has been to build “mirror” fabrication plants (fabs) in Arizona or Japan so that, in the event of a Taiwan blockade, global economic collapse would not occur. 

However, as TSMC’s struggles in Arizona have shown, the hardware is the easy part. The real secret sauce of Taiwan’s dominance is not the machinery but the tacit knowledge of its workforce and the tight integration of its industrial clusters. By requiring that Taiwan give up that secret sauce and ‘train’ themselves out, the US is no longer operating in a policy of redundancy but of replacement. 

This does, of course, change the strategic calculus. The “Silicon Shield” theory is based on Taiwan’s indispensability: the US and the military will have to protect and defend Taiwan, as it is a non-nullifiable requirement. If Washington manages to succeed in not only the goals of reshoring production but also the control of the production itself (independently), Taiwan’s strategic value to the “America First” optics degrades significantly.

The Strategic Paradox

This presents a conundrum with regard to the nature of Western grand strategy. Militarily, the US and its allies are trying to harden Taiwan’s defenses to deter Beijing by increasing the costs of invasion. Industrially, however, US trade policy seeks to lower the cost of the loss of Taiwan.

This gives Beijing a highly dangerous opportunity. Assuming Chinese planners think the US is, in fact, successfully insulating itself from a Taiwan contingency and that by 2028 or 2030, America might be “chip secure,” they may conclude that the best time to move on the island is before that insulation, or more so, that the US will not intervene once that insulation is complete.

Moreover, the “hollowing out” narrative is damaging to Taiwan’s morale. If the Taiwanese public perceives that their security guarantor is treating their crown-jewel industry as a mere extractive resource, the political will to withstand the coercion (the foundational component of the island’s defense) may very well collapse.

Toward ‘Distributed Deterrence’ 

The United States cannot abandon its quest for supply chain resilience. What the United States must do is rethink the geography of that resilience. 

Rather than a “hub-and-spoke” model that drains talent and IP into the continental United States, Washington should advocate for a “distributed deterrence” strategy in the First Island Chain where Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, the core members of the “Chip 4” alliance, are economically integrated. 

Japan’s recent semiconductor renaissance provides a model. Missed deadlines at the TSMC plant in Kumamoto were a concern, but not for long, as its growth integrated with, rather than replaced, Taiwan’s capacity. If Japan and South Korea were not only the United States, the alliance could construct a regional interdependence through “friend-shoring” of advanced packaging and design for the semiconductor supply chain. 

This keeps the economic weight—and the strategic necessity of defense—anchored in East Asia. It signals to Beijing that disrupting Taiwan would still crash the economies of key U.S. allies in the region, ensuring a collective response.

One of the smarter domestic economic policies of the Trump administration is the deal on workforce training. There is an actual economic disparity in the American labor market. However, strategy design is not just about how the ends are achieved but how that is in accordance with the overall goals. The ultimate aim is an unencumbered and free Indo-Pacific. However, the approach cannot include the economic cannibalization of the weakest democracy in the region. An economically hollowed-out Taiwan is a weakened and defenseless Taiwan. No geopolitical catastrophe regarding the fall of Taiwan will be salvaged by the production of more chips in Arizona.