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Caracas, December 12, 2025 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The US Treasury Department levied new sanctions against the Venezuelan oil industry as the Trump White House looks to strangle the Caribbean nation’s most important revenue source.

On Thursday, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) blacklisted six shipping companies for allegedly transporting Venezuelan crude. OFAC likewise identified six tankers, one from each sanctioned firm, as blocked property.

“Today’s action also targets Venezuela’s oil sector, which continues to fund Maduro’s illegitimate regime,” the US Treasury stated in a press release.

The Trump administration’s latest coercive measures mark an escalation in its efforts to target Venezuela’s oil industry. During his first term, Trump introduced a “maximum pressure” campaign that included financial sanctions, an export embargo and secondary sanctions against Venezuela’s oil sector.

In his second term, the White House withdrew Chevron’s license to extract and export crude from its ventures in Venezuela before issuing a new, limited waiver in May.

The latest sanctions come amid a large-scale US military buildup and deadly operations in the Caribbean under a self-declared anti-narcotics mission. However, reports from specialized agencies have contradicted the White House’s “narcoterrorism” accusations against Caracas.

Trump has issued repeated threats to attack purported drug targets inside Venezuelan territory. Analysts and political figures have argued that Washington’s true goal is regime change in order to take control of Venezuelan natural resources.

On Wednesday, the US Coast Guard led the seizure of an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude. The Skipper, which had been blacklisted by the US Treasury in 2021 for allegedly transporting Iranian crude, was commandeered in international waters while carrying an estimated 1.6 million barrels of crude bound for Asian markets. 

Caracas condemned the move as “international piracy” and vowed to denounce it before international bodies. US officials told Reuters that more seizures are expected in the near future, while former Biden administration advisor Juan González raised the prospect of a naval blockade against the South American country.

Washington’s tanker drew widespread rejection, with US anti-war collective Code Pink calling it “21st century piracy.” The American Association of Jurists likewise issued a statement condemning US actions as illegal and a violation of international law.

US authorities had previously seized Venezuela-bound Iranian fuel in 2020. In November, a US warship blocked the path of a Russian tanker, forcing it to make a U-turn before eventually reaching its destination in eastern Venezuela.

Thursday’s coercive measures likewise included individual sanctions against Ramón Carretero, Carlos Malpica, Efrain Campo and Franqui Flores. Carretero, a Panamanian national, was targeted for alleged involvement in Venezuelan oil sales.

Malpica, Campo and Flores are nephews of Venezuelan First Lady and National Assembly Deputy Cilia Flores. Malpica had been previously designated in 2017 before being withdrawn from OFAC’s List of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN List) in 2022. Campo and Flores were serving 18-year sentences on drug trafficking charges when they were released by the Biden administration in a prisoner exchange in 2022.

The sanctioned companies and individuals will see any US-based assets frozen, while US persons and firms are barred from conducting any business with them.

Oil production remains stable

Amidst recent US threats and escalatory actions, Venezuela’s oil sector has maintained a steady output level.

According to OPEC, production stood at 934,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, slightly below 961,000 bpd in October, as measured by secondary sources. Venezuela’s oil industry recovered from decades-low output levels in 2020 but has not managed to surpass the 1 million bpd threshold.

In contrast, state oil company PDVSA reported a higher output of 1.14 million bpd in November. The direct and secondary measurements have differed over time due to disagreements on the inclusion of natural gas liquids and condensates.

The recent tanker seizure is expected to hit Venezuelan oil revenues through higher shipping and insurance costs. PDVSA is forced to rely on intermediaries and levy significant discounts in order to place crude cargoes in international markets.

An oversupply of sanctioned crude from Iran and Russia has likewise cut into PDVSA’s profit margins in recent weeks.

Edited by Cira Pascual Marquina in Caracas.

The incident is the third of its kind in recent weeks in which Tajik border guards and civilians have been killed.

Five people have been killed in a firefight between border guards and intruders on Tajikistan‘s border with Afghanistan, the Tajik border protection agency says.

Heavily armed raiders from Afghanistan crossed into Tajikistan at the village of Kavo in the Shamsiddin Shokhin district on Tuesday and were located on Wednesday, according to a statement by the border agency published by Tajik news agency Khovar.

The border agency said the men attacked a guard post, killing two border guards, and three of the intruders died in the ensuing gun battle.

The agency said the incident was the third of its kind in recent weeks in which Tajik border guards and civilians were killed.

The border guards secured the weapons and ammunition used by the intruders, including grenades, three M-16 rifles, a Kalashnikov assault rifle, three foreign-made pistols with silencers, 10 hand grenades, a night-vision scope, explosives and other ammunition at the scene, the agency said.

“The terrorists refused to obey orders from Tajik border guards to surrender and offered armed resistance. They intended to carry out an armed attack on one of the border posts of the Border Troops of the State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan,” the statement said.

Chinese citizens working for a mining company in the region have also been among those killed.

The latest incident demonstrated “the Taliban government’s failure to fulfil their international obligations and repeated commitments to ensuring security and stability along the state border with the Republic of Tajikistan and to combating members of terrorist organisations, reflecting serious and recurring irresponsibility”, the statement added.

It agency said that it expected an apology from the Afghan leadership.

Tajikistan will defend its territorial integrity against “terrorists and smugglers” by all means, it added.

Afghanistan has not yet commented on the incident.

Drugs from Afghanistan are smuggled into Central Asia across the largely unsecured 1,340km (830-mile) border. Russian forces are stationed in Tajikistan and have in the past participated in joint exercises with Tajik forces to help secure the border.

Pope Leo has urged Ukraine and Russia to find the “courage” to hold direct talks to end the war during his first Christmas remarks to crowds in St Peter’s square.

He called for an end to conflicts around the world during his Urbi et Orbi address, which is traditionally delivered by the pontiff on Christmas Day to worshippers gathered in Vatican City.

Speaking about Ukraine, the Pope said: “May the clamour of weapons cease, and may the parties involved, with the support and commitment of the international community, find the courage to engage in sincere, direct and respectful dialogue.”

His plea comes as US-led negotiations on a deal to end the fighting continues.

The US has sought to put together an agreement acceptable to both sides, but direct talks between Russian and Ukraine have not taken place during this latest round of diplomatic efforts.

Pope Leo also decried turmoil and conflict plaguing other parts of the world, including Thailand and Cambodia where deadly border clashes have flared up despite a ceasefire in July.

He asked that the South East Asian nations’ “ancient friendship” be restored and “to work towards reconciliation and peace”.

During an earlier Christmas Day sermon in St Peter’s Basilica, Pope Leo lamented conditions for homeless people the world over, and the damage caused by conflicts.

“Fragile is the flesh of defenceless populations, tried by so many wars, ongoing or concluded, leaving behind rubble and open wounds,” he said.

He said the story of the birth of Jesus showed that God had “pitched his fragile tent” among the people of the world. “How, then,” he asked, turning his attention to the conditions of Palestinians, “can we not think of the tents in Gaza, exposed for weeks to rain, wind and cold?”

Gaza has been devastated by Israeli bombardment in a two-year war, triggered by Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023.

Winter storms have compounded the plight of the territory’s 2.1m population, nearly all of whom have been displaced and their homes damaged or destroyed.

Aid agencies have called for Israel to allow more tents and urgently needed supplies into Gaza.

Cogat, the Israeli military body which controls Gaza’s border crossings, has dismissed claims of deliberate aid restrictions, saying almost 310,000 tents and tarpaulins had been delivered since the start of the ceasefire in October.

As the United States reasserts its hemispheric priorities in its recent National Security Strategy document, Latin America and the Caribbean are once again cast as a zone of interest, with Venezuela squarely in Washington’s sights. Puerto Rico—still a US colony more than a century after the 1898 invasion—plays a central role in this imperial architecture, serving as both a military platform and a living example of colonial rule in the region. 

Cira Pascual Marquina spoke with Puerto Rican geographer, author, and longtime activist Déborah Berman Santana about the continuity of US imperialism, the island’s strategic function in projecting imperialist military power in the region, and why Venezuela’s insistence on sovereignty represents such a profound threat to US interests. 

Drawing on decades of grassroots struggle against militarization, including the successful campaign to halt US Navy bombings in Vieques, Berman Santana situates today’s escalation against Venezuela within a broader history of colonial control, neocolonial coercion, and popular resistance in the continent.

The US has just issued a new National Security Strategy document that shifts its focus to the Western Hemisphere. From your perspective in Puerto Rico, what does this reveal about Washington’s imperial ambitions, and how does it impact the Caribbean and specifically Venezuela?

From Puerto Rico, and with the history of US-Latin American relations in mind, what is being presented as a “new” security strategy is really the old one. Even before the Monroe Doctrine, Thomas Jefferson was already worried that Spain’s colonies might become independent before the United States was strong enough to take control of them. Hemispheric domination has always been central to US policy.

What this document makes clear is that Washington wants absolute control over the Western Hemisphere, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the world or how competition with China or Russia evolves. When US officials say “America for the Americans,” they mean the entire hemisphere for the United States: its peoples and its resources, all under US imperialist control.

The Caribbean is still referred to as the US “backyard,” even by sectors of the US left. Venezuela’s oil—the largest proven reserves on the planet—is treated as US oil. Bolivia’s lithium is viewed as US lithium. The strategy simply reasserts the United States as the dominant power, the plantation owner of the hemisphere.

There is nothing new in this policy paper except how openly it is stated. I don’t believe the substance would be radically different under a Democratic administration; it would simply be expressed in more polite language.

Puerto Rico is identified as a US “territory,” but in reality, it’s an occupied colony. How does that colonial status enable the buildup of US bases and military deployments, and why is Puerto Rico so central to projecting imperialist power in the Caribbean, especially toward Venezuela?

In the US Constitution, “territory” essentially means property. The US Supreme Court has defined Puerto Rico as an unincorporated territory belonging to, but not part of, the United States. “Unincorporated” means there is no obligation to ever make Puerto Rico a state.

The simplest analogy is a pair of shoes: they belong to you, but they are not part of you, and you can dispose of them at will. That is how Puerto Rico is legally understood. We don’t even have the limited sovereignty administratively allowed for Native peoples in the US. This is not my opinion; it is established by Supreme Court rulings.

This colonial condition makes militarization extremely easy. For roughly twenty years there was a visible reduction in US military presence, but that period is clearly over. The US does not need to negotiate with us. If it chooses to offer compensation, it may, but it is under no obligation.

There are six US military bases in Puerto Rico. Four were never meaningfully demilitarized. Two—Ramey in Aguadilla and Roosevelt Roads in Ceiba—were supposedly closed and slated for civilian redevelopment. In practice, that process has been partial at best.

I live near Ceiba, and since the summer, there has been a dramatic increase in military air traffic. The airstrip, which had been used for regional civilian flights since 2004, is now filled with F-35s, Hercules aircraft, and Ospreys. No permission was requested. The military simply took it over.

If the US decides to deploy additional warships or aircraft carrier groups—as it recently did with the USS Gerald R. Ford—it can do so without even consulting us. Whether this is intended as a prelude to an actual attack on Venezuela or primarily as pressure, it clearly sends a message.

It is the logic of a bully: “I am here, and I am ready to hurt you unless you comply.” Even without an invasion, the buildup is meant to force concessions, deepen internal divisions, or provoke instability in Venezuela. I doubt this will succeed, given Venezuela’s strong commitment to sovereignty, but it clearly reflects the US’ strategic thinking.

Venezuela faces escalating economic, political, and military pressure. Why is the Bolivarian Revolution perceived as such a threat to US imperialist interests?

The United States seeks to remain the dominant global power, but when that dominance is challenged—especially by China—it insists on absolute control of this hemisphere. In this worldview, Latin America and the Caribbean are US turf: their resources belong to Washington, and their peoples are treated, implicitly, as subjects.

What the US will not accept is a country that insists on real sovereignty, a country that engages with Washington as an equal. Venezuela’s decision to control its own resources and choose its own trading partners is intolerable to US policymakers.

That is why Cuba has faced a blockade for more than sixty years, why Nicaragua is targeted, and why Venezuela is now under such intense pressure. A Russian ship making a courtesy visit to Venezuela or expanded ties with China are treated not as sovereign decisions, but as provocations.

The real threat to Washington is not Venezuela in isolation, but the precedent it sets. The Bolivarian process represents a living challenge and a model that could inspire others across the region. That is why US policy aims either to overthrow the government or to force it to abandon its sovereign course.

And it would not stop with Venezuela: Cuba would be next, and Nicaragua would follow. Donald Trump has openly warned Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro that they could also “be next.” This military buildup sends a message to all of Latin America and the Caribbean—Mexico included—about the limits Washington seeks to impose on sovereignty.

As one billionaire ally of Trump [Elon Musk] once crudely said about Bolivia’s lithium: “We coup whoever we want.” It may sound blunt, but it reflects a long-standing reality. When US interests are challenged, it resorts to coups—soft or hard. It prefers banks over tanks, but ultimately it will do whatever is necessary to maintain imperialist control.

While Puerto Rico is under direct colonial rule, much of Latin America faces neocolonial domination. How do these models operate together today?

Puerto Rico is a colony with no sovereignty, now effectively governed by a fiscal control board imposed by the US Congress. Appointed under Obama and maintained by subsequent administrations, this unelected body can veto budgets and policies. Its priority is not social well-being, but debt repayment—most of it owed to Wall Street hedge funds.

This structure enforces privatization: electricity, education, and public services. Environmental protections are also under attack. But colonialism works by degrees. A country can be formally independent and still be coerced through debt, IMF pressure, financial blackmail, economic war, etc.

Chile’s water privatization after the Pinochet coup is one example. Haiti is another—it is formally independent, yet occupied and burdened with illegitimate debt. Elsewhere, intervention comes through NGOs, the National Endowment for Democracy, election interference, or direct coups, as in Honduras in 2009.

In Venezuela, when the right wing loses elections, the US cries fraud. When it wins, there is silence. This selective logic serves as justification for sanctions, isolation, and ultimately military threats.

The US justifies its military buildup in the Caribbean using anti-drug rhetoric. What does this narrative conceal?

Historically, Washington claimed to be fighting communism. Later, it was terrorism. Now the target is supposedly drugs. Yet it is widely known that drug demand is driven by the United States itself, and that many of its closest allies have been deeply involved in drug trafficking. It’s allowed as long as they remain politically obedient.

Meanwhile, fisherfolk across the Caribbean are targeted and killed under the pretext of drug interdiction, without evidence and without inspections. This is not about drugs. It is about control.

Most people understand this, even within the United States. The real objective is hemispheric domination and control over strategic resources—above all, Venezuelan oil.

Puerto Rico has a long history of resistance to militarization. How do those struggles connect today with Venezuela and the broader region?

Puerto Rico has consistently resisted US militarism. The struggle against US Navy bombings in Vieques was long and difficult, but it ended in a victory: the base was shut down. Although the land has yet to be fully cleaned up or returned to the community, the pueblo won that battle.

The same anti-militarist, independentista, and socialist forces that fought in Vieques continue to resist today, grounded in the understanding that Puerto Rico is part of the Caribbean and Latin America. Simón Bolívar himself insisted that his liberation project would remain incomplete without Cuba and Puerto Rico.This struggle is far from over. It will not be complete until Puerto Rico is free and can stand alongside Venezuela, Cuba, and other pueblos of the region in a hemisphere that truly belongs to its people—free, just, and sovereign.

The U.S. Air Force has formally designated Northrop Grumman’s Project Talon drone as the YFQ-48A and described it as a “strong contender” to be part of its future Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) fleets. This follows news that the service has handed contracts to nine companies to refine a wide array of designs under Increment 2 of its CCA program. Northrop Grumman, together with its subsidiary Scaled Composites, only lifted the lid on Project Talon earlier this month, as you can read more about in our initial report here.

YFQ-48A is the third ‘fighter drone’ designation the U.S. military has now applied to a CCA-type design. The service announced in March that the drones General Atomics and Anduril have been developing under Increment 1 of the CCA program had received the designations YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A, respectively. However, the Project Talon design is not part of Increment 1, as we will come back to later on.

“The MDS designation highlights the ongoing partnership between the Air Force and Northrop Grumman and acknowledges the continued progress of the YFQ-48A as a strong contender in the CCA program,” according to an official Air Force release.

“We are encouraged by Northrop Grumman’s continued investment in developing advanced semi-autonomous capabilities,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Jason Voorheis, the service’s Program Executive Officer for Fighters and Advanced Aircraft, said in a statement. “Their approach aligns with our strategy to foster competition, drive industry innovation, and deliver cutting-edge technology at speed and scale.”

“Northrop Grumman’s commitment to innovation, low-cost manufacturing, and calculated risk-taking aligns perfectly with the CCA acquisition strategy and the Secretary of War’s Acquisition Transformation Strategy,” Air Force Col. Timothy Helfrich, Director of the Agile Development Office, also said. “Project Talon is a testament to their ability to push boundaries and experiment with new technologies, ultimately advancing solutions that could enhance the future of airpower.”

While details about the Project Talon drone itself remain limited, Northrop Grumman has made clear that it is based on lessons learned from its losing entry in the Increment 1 competition. The company has said that its Increment 1 design was at the higher end of the performance and capability spectrum, and had a price to match. Talon, by extension, has been described as “cheaper and better” and “significantly different” from the Increment 1 offering, and a first flight is now targeted for late next year. You can learn more about what TWZ has been able to glean so far here.

Project Talon is here. This next-gen autonomous aircraft is made to adapt fast.

➡️ Modular by design
➡️ Mission-ready
➡️ Built for the challenges ahead pic.twitter.com/6UOhLSBHKn

— Northrop Grumman (@northropgrumman) December 4, 2025

“Northrop Grumman remains in a vendor pool that can compete for future efforts, including the Increment 1 production contract and subsequent increments,” an Air Force spokesperson told TWZ when asked about the current relationship of Northrop Grumman and Project Talon to the CCA program.

“As the Air Force continues to advance the CCA program, the ongoing collaboration with Northrop Grumman and the defense and aerospace industry will ensure that the Air Force remains at the forefront of airpower innovation,” the Air Force’s release today also noted. “These types of partnerships will help the Air Force meet the challenges of an increasingly complex and competitive global security environment while maintaining the technological superiority necessary to prevail in future conflicts. “

TWZ has also reached out to Northrop Grumman. Northrop Grumman and Scaled Composites have also previously said that Project Talon, which has been described so far as a demonstrator effort, is not explicitly aimed at a particular contract opportunity, such as the Air Force CCA program’s Increment 2.

As mentioned, the Air Force has separately confirmed that nine companies have now received initial concept refinement contracts under the CCA program’s Increment 2, which were all awarded earlier this month. The service is presently declining to name any of those companies, one of which could be Northrop Grumman. An Air Force spokesperson told TWZ that the vendor details are currently “protected by enhanced security measures.”

“These designs [being refined under Increment 2 now] represent a broad spectrum, ranging from more affordable, attritable concepts to higher-end, more exquisite designs,” that same spokesperson also told TWZ. “This variety ensures that the program explores different approaches, optimizing for cost-effectiveness while maintaining the flexibility and capabilities necessary to enhance operational effectiveness.”

That the Air Force is again considering a mix of lower and higher-end designs for Increment 2 is a notable development. The service had indicated previously that it would focus heavily on less exquisite and cheaper designs for the second tranche of CCA drones based on its experience with Increment 1. It’s also worth remembering here that Increment 2 has also long been expected to include foreign participation, which would have impacts on the requirements. In October, the Netherlands announced it had formally joined the Air Force’s CCA program.

The U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Navy also have their own CCA programs, which are formally intertwined with the Air Force’s effort, including in the development of common command and control and autonomy architectures. However, the Marines and Navy have been pursuing specific airframe designs to meet their respective needs independently. The Marine Corps is moving to field an operational version of Kratos’ XQ-58A Valkyrie drone following extensive testing with that design. The Navy has four companies under contract now for conceptual aircraft carrier-based CCA designs.

“The next competitive contract award will occur after the Concept Refinement Phase, as the Air Force evaluates the technical and operational merits of the submitted designs for prototyping,” the Air Force spokesperson added. “Increment 2 will be structured similarly to Increment 1, where more than one awardee may be selected for prototyping. This approach allows for competitive development and ensures that the Air Force can evaluate various solutions before selecting the final designs to move into production.”

“For CCA Increment 2, following concept refinement, the Air Force will proceed with prototyping, with plans for a future competitive award leading to production awards,” they continued. “The specific timeline for these milestones will depend on the results from Concept Refinement and the vendor’s performance during testing.”

Many questions remain about the Air Force’s CCA plans, including exactly how many drones the service is set to acquire under Increment 1, and whether that initial fleet will be all YFQ-42As or YFQ-44As, or a mix of both. The Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy are all still very much refining their core concepts of operations for future CCA fleets, including deployed, launched, recovered, supported, and otherwise operated on a day-to-day peacetime basis, let alone employing them tactically.

In the meantime, the Air Force is clearly pushing with the development of additional CCA types, including Northrop Grumman’s and Scaled Composites’ Project Talon design. With Increment 2 now underway, more insights into the new field of CCA competitors may begin to emerge.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

One of the U.S. Air Force’s last remaining EC-130H Compass Call electronic warfare planes is now in Puerto Rico, video emerging on social media shows. The arrival marks the latest in an increasing buildup of military assets in the region to pressure Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and for what seems increasingly likely to be a contingency for a sustained kinetic operation over Venezuela.

You can catch up with our latest coverage on Operation Southern Spear in the Caribbean here.

The Compass Call landed 10 p.m. on Saturday at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in Puerto Rico, the videographer, an aircraft spotter who uses the Instagram handle Pinchito.Avgeek, told us. Other aircraft spotters told The War Zone that this is the first confirmed Compass Call to be seen in Puerto Rico as of late. The airport is also home to the Puerto Rico Air National Guard’s 156th Wing and has seen C-17 Globemaster III and other military aircraft operating there for Southern Spear.

While there are a number of C-130 Hercules variants in Puerto Rico, a screencap of that video shows that antennas under the tail and on top of the aircraft behind the cockpit conclusively show this is an EC-130H Compass Call.

Though the Air Force is phasing these aircraft out in favor of EA-37B Compass Call jets, the EC-130H brings capabilities that would be called upon for an attack on Venezuela should one be ordered. The heavily modified C-130 Hercules cargo planes carry a suite of electronic attack gear that can find and track “emitters” like radios and radars and then scramble their signals. This equipment can also jam cell phones.

The equipment aboard the Compass Call would help to blind Venezuelan air defenses, communications and command and control, making it harder to respond to attacks by combat aircraft and cruise missiles. The four-engine aircraft can fly for many hours without refueling and much longer with tanker support, giving U.S. Southern Command a long-loitering airborne EW platform.

As we noted in an earlier story: “Previous iterations of the EC-130H-based Compass Call system have proven their value in combat zones on multiple occasions in the past two decades. A contingent of these aircraft was continuously forward-deployed in the Middle East, from where they also supported operations in Afghanistan, between 2001 and 2021. EC-130Hs supported the raid that led to the death of Al Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011 and prevented the detonation of an improvised explosive device that might have killed then-Maj. Gen. James Mattis, who later rose to the rank of General and also served as Secretary of Defense under Trump, in Iraq in 2003, among many other exploits, according to a recent story from Air Force Times.”

The current status and location of the Compass Call are not publicly known. The videographer told us he only saw it land. A U.S. official we spoke with could not comment on the arrival of the EC-130H but told us that there have been no new military orders for Southern Spear.

The EC-130H joins a squadron of E/A-18G Growler electronic attack jets, deployed on the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, as well as another squadron on land, as airborne electronic warfare assets now operating in the Caribbean. While Compass Calls offer some overlapping capabilities and some significantly different ones than the Growlers, the arrival of the EC-130J is another indication that electronic warfare is clearly taking a lopsided focus compared to the size of the rest of the fighting force deployed in the region.

While it is unclear if the Compass Call has performed any of its offensive operations yet, both the U.S. and Venezuela are using defensive jamming to protect assets. This has become an increasing problem for the region as tensions rise.

“At least some of the U.S. warships that have deployed to the Caribbean in recent months have been jamming GPS signals in their vicinity,” The New York Times reported, citing an analysis of data provided by Stanford University and a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.

In an effort to protect important resources, “the armed forces of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela have jammed the GPS signals around the country’s critical infrastructure, including military bases, oil refineries and power plants,” the publication noted, citing an analysis by Spire Global, a satellite data firm.

Combined, the jamming is raising concerns for aviation.

“Whether jamming is due to the U.S. or Venezuelan forces, it really doesn’t matter: You don’t want an aircraft going in there,” Gen. Willie Shelton, the former head of the U.S. Air Force’s Space Command, told The Times.

As for the EC-130Hs, the aircraft is being retired from the Air Force inventory.

“Currently, the U.S. Air Force is operating and maintaining eight EC-130H aircraft,” Capt. Ridge Miller, a spokesperson for Air Combat Command (ACC) told The War Zone Monday afternoon. “A total of 10 EA-37B aircraft are on track to be delivered while simultaneously retiring the EC-130H fleet in a phased approach. Both platforms currently operate out of the 55th Electronic Combat Group at Davis Monthan AFB in Arizona.”

The EA-37B is based on a heavily modified version of the Gulfstream G550 airframe.

In addition to the Compass Call, other C-130 variants are operating out of Puerto Rico. One of which is the Marine Corps’ KC-130J Hercules tanker/transport aircraft. The KC-130Js uses the probe-and-drogue method for Navy and Marine Corps aircraft, and is used to refuel fixed-wing fighter aircraft and helicopters.

Plane spotter @LatAmMilMovements told us that at least one of these aircraft, and sometimes two, have had a steady presence ever since Marine F-35B Lightnings arrived in Puerto Rico in September. This matches the imagery and satellite photos we have seen of the installation for months now. AV-8B Harriers, MV-22 Ospreys, and CH-53 Sea Stallions, all from the USS Iwo Jima and its flotilla, are also using the base regularly and they can all refuel from the KC-130J.

Air Force HC-130J Combat King II combat search and rescue (CSAR) planes are also flying out of Puerto Rico. Traditionally, they provide fuel to HH-60W Jolly Green Giant II CSAR helicopters, CV-22 Ospreys, and, to a lesser degree, the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR) helicopters.

These types are just part of a growing fleet of aerial refuelers in the region. The Air Force has also deployed KC-135 Stratotankers and KC-46 Pegasus tankers to the Dominican Republic and U.S. Virgin Islands.

As more tanker aircraft arrive in Puerto Rico, they are also building up at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida. Aerial images show at least 28 KC-135s at the base. The image also shows at least two E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft are operating from MacDill, located about 1,400 miles northwest of Venezuela. As we pointed out last week, at least one Sentry was recently tracked on FlightRadar24 flying close to the Venezuelan coast. 

While E-3s may have been present but not trackable over the Caribbean in recent days, this one being trackable was not a mistake. U.S. military aircraft executing easily trackable sorties very near Venezuelan airspace have been a key component of the pressure campaign placed on Maduro. 

In addition to the growing military pressure on the Venezuelan leader, the U.S. is also raising the stakes economically. Since President Donald Trump declared a blockade against sanctioned oil tankers, U.S. authorities have seized two tankers. On Sunday, the Coast Guard was in “active pursuit” of the massive tanker Bella 1 after it refused to submit to U.S. seizure efforts. The status of that effort was unclear as of Monday afternoon. We have reached out to the Coast Guard for more details.

Though the military and economic pressure are building on Maduro, Trump’s exact intentions remain an open question, although they appear to be becoming clearer by the day. During his announcement of the new Trump class battleships Monday afternoon, the president again said that the U.S. would soon be going after drug cartels on land; however, he explained that would not just be focused on Venezuela.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

The year started slowly. Then it moved fast. 

Many reporters at HumAngle wondered what 2025 would bring. But as the year ran fast, the foot soldiers ran even faster, creating a monumental investigative reporting archive across multiple platforms. In this newsroom, everyone is an investigative journalist — from editors, interns, reporters and the Editor-in-Chief/Chief Executive Officer.

We told raw stories and terror tales, and conducted human-centred investigations that uncovered what would otherwise have been covered up. Most of our 2025 investigations tackled insecurity, exposed social injustices, unravelled the vulnerability of communities to terrorists, and set the record straight amid disinformation wildfires. 

In 2025, we redefined our journalism models, focusing on impact-driven investigations and stories that really matter. Here are our best investigations for the year.

1. The Making and Unmaking of Abubakar Shekau

When the notorious terrorist Abubakar Shekau died in 2021, tons of stories and narratives were pushed around the circumstances leading to his death. One question many failed to ask: How did Shekau emerge from nowhere to command an army of villains, inflicting lifelong pain and anguish on many? Only a few terrorism experts could answer that question with details and rigour. One such person is Ahmad Salkida, the CEO and Editor-in-Chief at HumAngle.

Four years after Shekau’s death, his investigative piece appeared on the internet’s fringes: The Making and Unmaking of Abubakar Shekau. Ahmad Salkida has studied Boko Haram for over a decade, from its inception to the point of vile insurgency and massive attacks against unarmed civilians.

HumAngle probed and profiled how Shekau rose from humble beginnings in Yobe State to become one of Africa’s most notorious insurgent leaders, transforming Boko Haram into a movement defined by mass abductions, suicide bombings, and indiscriminate killings. Initially a perfume seller and Qur’anic student, his life changed after meeting radical cleric Muhammad Yusuf, whose death in 2009 propelled Shekau into leadership. 

2. What Happened to Gallari’s 42 Men After 12 Years in Military Detention?

That story on Shekau’s legacy of terror went viral. But before then, we had investigated the illegal incarceration of 42 village men of Gallari, a community in Borno, northeastern Nigeria, by men of the Nigerian military. They were arrested in 2011 during military raids targeting Boko Haram suspects, with little or no evidence against them. 

HumAngle’s investigation exposed how the villagers were held in Giwa Barracks and other facilities under harsh conditions, enduring torture, starvation, and disease. Their families faced stigma, poverty, and displacement, with wives forced into single parenthood and children growing up without fathers. Upon release, some of the men returned to find their homes destroyed, loved ones lost, and communities fractured. The story highlights the broader consequences of Nigeria’s counterinsurgency strategy, where mass arrests and indefinite detentions have left deep scars on civilian populations. 

For many months, Usman Zanna, a HumAngle reporter, documented this story after speaking with victims locked in military confinement for over 12  years. One of them came out blind from detention, another had lost one of his ears, and another had torture scars all over his body. During an advocacy meeting facilitated by HumAngle and Amnesty International in Borno State, however, civic leaders and media practitioners took a step to spotlight the investigation that opened a can of worms on the military’s gross violation of human rights in the arrest of the 42 Gallari men.

3. From Elephants to Warthogs: The Shadow Wildlife Trade Financing Boko Haram in Nigeria

As Boko Haram entrenched and spread across Borno’s forested areas,  terrorists invested heavily in the ivory trade to sustain their operations. They poached elephants for years until the dynamics of the ivory trade shifted dramatically. Armed groups occupied critical elephant habitats like Sambisa, transforming them into fortified strongholds. The conflict, coupled with indiscriminate hunting, led to a drastic reduction in elephant sightings.

When elephants vanished from the region’s forests, however, Boko Haram terrorists turned to warthogs, an overlooked species with tusks just as valuable. With little regulation and growing global demand, warthog ivory is now fuelling a new black market. At the heart of it lies a deadly trade financing terror and deepening regional instability.

HumAngle exposed how local and international black markets helped patronise the terrorists’ ivory exploits, especially warthog trading, to fund their operations. We used OSINT and human intelligence.

4. Surrendered Terrorists Evade Official Rehabilitation Programme, Reinfiltrate Nigerian Communities

One interesting investigation we published in 2025 was an in-depth report on the complex lives of individuals who were once affiliated with Boko Haram. The story sheds light on their recruitment processes, experiences within the group, and efforts to reintegrate into society. It reveals personal stories, such as those of Abubakar Adam and Rawa Ali, who voluntarily distanced themselves from the insurgency but faced significant obstacles upon returning, often lacking sufficient government support.

Other accounts, including those of Falmata Abba and Aisha Mohammed, reveal a spectrum of emotions from regret to relief about leaving the militant group, while Rukayya’s story focuses on her health struggles. The piece also discusses the varied reactions from communities toward these returnees and critiques the shortcomings of Nigeria’s efforts in deradicalisation and rehabilitation.

The investigation raises concerns about trust and security in communities where former insurgents reappear without completing official reintegration programs, underscoring the need for comprehensive, transparent approaches to facilitate effective societal reintegration and maintain stability.

5. The Boys Lured into Boko Haram’s Enclave with Food Rations

Amid the escalation of insurgency in North Central Nigeria, terrorists devised a new way of recruiting children into their ranks. Boko Haram fighters lure children with food rations, handing guns to them after feeding them. Ibrahim Adeyemi, HumAngle’s investigations editor, followed the story in Niger state, speaking to survivors and parents of children caught in terrorists’ enclaves.

The insurgents exploit hunger as a recruitment tool, deliberately destroying farms and food supplies to create scarcity, then luring vulnerable children into their camps with food rations. Once inside, boys are trained as fighters or spies. At the same time, girls are forced into marriages and servitude, all under the command of leaders like Mallam Sadiqu, who manipulate desperation to sustain the group’s ranks. 

HumAngle’s investigation, which took several months, focused on identifying underage boys and girls who were deceived into entering the terrorists’ territory. 

Gaza’s Christians reflected on the loss they’ve experienced after two years of Israel’s devastating war, as Palestinians marked the first Christmas since the fragile ceasefire deal.

Caracas, December 15, 2025 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The Venezuelan Armed Forces reiterated their commitment to defend the Caribbean nation’s airspace amid an escalating US military buildup and provocations.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino issued a statement Sunday to mark the 47th anniversary of the Venezuelan Integral Airspace Defense Command (CODAI), hailing the system’s “effective and immediate” response capabilities against “imperialist threats.”

“With its modern radars, missile systems and surface-to-air artillery, CODAI has become the vanguard of the country’s defense,” Padrino wrote on social media. The defense minister went on to highlight CODAI’s “technological independence.”

Padrino’s comments occurred amid a large-scale US military buildup in the Caribbean in a self-declared anti-narcotics mission. The Trump administration has repeatedly threatened to launch strikes against purported drug targets inside Venezuelan territory.

After moving their largest US aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the region in November, US forces have likewise ramped up warplane deployments to bases in Puerto Rico. According to reports, the US Navy moved six EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets to the island’s Roosevelt Roads naval station.

Designed by Boeing, the EA-18G Growlers have advanced capabilities to disrupt and deceive enemy military electronic systems, including air defenses.

Open-access flight tracking websites have shown EA-18G Growlers operating in the Caribbean in recent days.  On Tuesday, F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets flew for 40 minutes close to the Gulf of Venezuela in the country’s west. Analysts argued that the warplanes could have been mapping air defense systems spotted in the region days before.

On Friday night, social media users watching flight trackers reported that a Growler, codenamed GRIZZLY2, and a Super Hornet, codenamed RHINO61, were flying over Venezuela’s Los Roques archipelago and continental mainland, respectively. However, the false positions were a consequence of trackers such as Flight Radar 24 extrapolating an aircraft’s position for a limited time after losing signal on the basis of the last measured position and speed.

The Venezuelan government and armed forces have consistently denounced the US military maneuvers, accusing Washington of attempting to fabricate a false flag incident to justify an open conflict.

The US’ increased military activity has also affected commercial aviation. On Sunday, JetBlue denounced that an airplane on a Curaçao-New York had to halt its ascent due to the presence of a US Air Force refueling tanker in its path. Curaçao is 40 miles away from Venezuela’s coast.

US authorities have also issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) urging extra caution to planes flying in Venezuela’s Flight Information Region (FIR). For his part, Trump wrote on social media that Venezuela’s airspace should be “considered closed.”

International airlines flying to and from Caracas have suspended their services. Venezuelan companies continue to offer connections to regional destinations including Panama City, Bogotá and Santo Domingo.

ALBA alliance condemns US threats

Amidst the ongoing US military threats and buildup, the Nicolás Maduro government has received diplomatic backing from its main allies. Last week, the Venezuelan leader held phone calls with his Russian, Iranian and Brazilian counterparts to discuss bilateral relations and the threats to peace in the region.

On Sunday, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA-TCP) held a virtual summit and issued a statement condemning the Trump administration’s declared intentions to enforce the Monroe Doctrine in the hemisphere.

The regional body likewise condemned recent US hostile actions, including the seizure of a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude last week. The US Treasury Department followed by imposing new sanctions, blacklisting shipping companies allegedly involved in transporting Venezuelan oil.

Venezuela’s state oil company denounced a cyberattack targeting its operational capabilities but stated that its effects had been minimized. According to Bloomberg, the reported attack caused loading delays in Venezuela’s main oil terminal.

The White House has justified its military buildup and coercive measures escalation with “narcoterrorism” charges against Maduro and other top Venezuelan officials. However, US agencies have not provided court-tested evidence to back the claims, while reports from specialized agencies have shown Venezuela to play a marginal role in global drug trafficking.

International leaders and foreign policy analysts have stated that Washington’s ultimate goal is regime change to seize control of Venezuela’s natural resources.

Edited by Cira Pascual Marquina in Caracas.

Ever since Hugo Chávez came to power in 1998, the United States has attempted to overthrow the Bolivarian Revolution. They have tried everything short of a full-scale military invasion: a military coup, selecting a substitute president, cutting off access to the global financial system, imposing layers of sanctions, sabotaging the electricity grid, sending in mercenaries, and attempting to assassinate its leaders. If you can think of a method to overthrow a government, the United States has likely tried it against Venezuela.

However, in 2025, the escalation became unmistakable. The US sent its warships to patrol Venezuela’s coast, began sinking small boats and killing those on board as they left the South American mainland, and seized an oil tanker bound for Cuba. The quantity of attacks on Venezuela has increased, suggesting the quality of the threats has now reached a different magnitude. It feels as if the United States is preparing for a full-blown invasion of the country.

Donald Trump came to office saying that he was opposed to military interventions that did not further US interests, which is why he called the illegal US war on Iraq a waste of “blood and treasure”. This does not mean Trump is against the use of the US military – he deployed it in Afghanistan (remember the “Mother of all Bombs”) and Yemen, and has fully backed the US/Israeli genocide against the Palestinians. His formula is not for or against war categorically, but about what the US would gain from it. With Iraq, he stated that the problem was not the war itself, but the failure to seize Iraqi oil. Had the US taken Iraq’s oil, Trump would likely have been in Baghdad, ready to build – with Iraqi treasure – a Trump hotel on one of the former presidential properties.

Naturally, the US military buildup in the Caribbean is about Venezuelan oil – the largest known reserves in the world. The US-backed politician, Maria Corina Machado, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize just this week after supporting the Israeli genocide and calling for a US invasion of her own country, is on record promising to open up her country’s resources to foreign capital. She would welcome the extraction of Venezuela’s wealth rather than allow its social wealth to better the lives of its own people, as is the goal of the Bolivarian Revolution started by Hugo Chávez. A hypothetical “President Machado” would immediately surrender any claim to the Essequibo region and grant ExxonMobil full command of Venezuela’s oil reserves. This is certainly the prize.

But it is not the immediate spur. A close reading of the 2025 National Security Strategy of the United States shows that there is a renewed emphasis on the Western Hemisphere. The Trump Corollary to the 1823 Monroe Doctrine is clear: the Western Hemisphere must be under US control, and the United States will do what it takes to ensure that only pro-US politicians hold power. It is worth reading that section of the National Security Strategy:

“After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region. We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere. This ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine is a common-sense and potent restoration of American power and priorities, consistent with American security interests.”

When Argentina faced local elections, Trump warned that the US would cut off external financing if candidates opposing pro-US President Javier Milei lost. In Honduras, Trump intervened directly to oppose the Libre Party, even offering to release a convicted drug trafficker (and former President). The United States is moving aggressively because it has accurately assessed the weakness of the Pink Tide and the strength of a new, far-right “Angry Tide”. The emergence of right-wing governments across South America, Central America, and the Caribbean has emboldened the US to squeeze Venezuela and thereby weaken Cuba – the two major poles of the Latin American left. Overturning these revolutionary processes would allow a full-scale Monroe Doctrine domination of Latin America and the Caribbean.

Since the 1990s, the United States began to speak of Latin America as a partner for shared prosperity, emphasizing globalization over direct control. Now, the language has changed. As the Trump Corollary asserts: “We want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets and that supports critical supply chains…We want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations.” Latin America is seen as a battlefield for geopolitical competition against China and a source of threats like immigration and drug trafficking. The attack on Venezuela and Cuba is not merely an assault on these two countries; it is the opening salvo of direct US intervention on behalf of the Angry Tide. This will not deliver better lives for the population, but greater wealth for US corporations and the oligarchies of Latin America.

Trump is ready to revive the belief that any problem can be solved by military force, even when other tools exist. The Trump Corollary promises to use its “military system superior to any country in the world” to steal the hemisphere’s resources.

The aggression against Venezuela is not a war against Venezuela alone. It is a war against all of Latin America.

Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian, editor, and journalist. He is a writing fellow and chief correspondent at Globetrotter. He is an editor of LeftWord Books and the director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. He has written more than 20 books, including The Darker Nations and The Poorer Nations. His latest books are On Cuba: Reflections on 70 Years of Revolution and Struggle (with Noam Chomsky), Struggle Makes Us Human: Learning from Movements for Socialism, and (also with Noam Chomsky) The Withdrawal: Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and the Fragility of US Power. Chelwa and Prashad will publish How the International Monetary Fund is Suffocating Africa later this year with Inkani Books.

Source: Globetrotter

Algeria’s parliament unanimously passed a law declaring France’s colonisation a crime. Lawmakers celebrated in the chamber as they demanded an apology, reparations and assigned France legal responsibility for the harms caused during colonial rule.

‘Main reason for optimism’ is a belief that war in Ukraine will end in 2026 with Moscow’s ‘objectives’ achieved,’ pollster says.

A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, a state-owned research centre said, as Russian forces make advances on the battlefield and efforts intensify to reach a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

VTsIOM, Russia’s leading public opinion research centre, said on Wednesday that its annual survey of sentiment around the outgoing year and expectations for the coming year found Russians are viewing 2026 with “growing optimism”.

“Expectations for next year traditionally look much more optimistic … In other words, while the negative perception of the current situation persists, Russians have become more likely to accept (or believe, hope?) future improvements this year, but they still do so with caution,” the organisation said in a review of its survey findings released online.

In a year-end presentation, VTsIOM deputy head Mikhail Mamonov said 70 percent of 1,600 people surveyed ​viewed 2026 as being a more “successful” year for Russia than this year, with 55 percent of respondents linking hope for a better year ‍to a possible end to what Russia officially calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president,” Mamonov ‍said at the ⁠presentation.

Mamonov pointed to the Russian military’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine, Washington’s reluctance to finance the Ukraine war and the European Union’s inability to fully replace the ‌United States’ role in Ukraine – financially and militarily – as key factors behind the prospects for an eventual deal to end the fighting.

At the conclusion of the conflict, reintegration of Russian military veterans into society and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, as well as Russian border areas, will be the main priorities, Mamonov added.

While the actual level of Russian public fatigue with the war is difficult to measure due to strict state controls on the media, expressions of public dissent as well as the prosecution of those who criticise Moscow’s war on its neighbour, approximately two-thirds of Russians support peace talks, according to independent pollster Levada, the highest number since the start of the war in 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in comments released on Wednesday that he would be willing to withdraw troops from Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland as part of a plan to end the war, if Moscow reciprocated by also pulling back its forces and allowed the area to become a demilitarised zone monitored by international forces.

In comments to reporters about an overarching 20-point plan that negotiators from Ukraine and the US had hammered out in Florida in recent days, Zelenskyy also said that a similar arrangement could be possible for the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently under Russian control.

Russia has given no indication that it will agree to any kind of withdrawal from land it has seized in Ukraine and has long insisted that Kyiv must give up the remaining territory it still holds in the Donbas industrial area before any discussions on the cessation of fighting.

Russia has captured most of Luhansk and about 70 percent of Donetsk – the two regions that make up the Donbas.

Zelenskyy also said that figuring out the future control of the Donbas as part of the plan was “the most difficult point”, and creating a demilitarised economic zone in the region would require difficult discussions on how far troops would be required to move back and where international forces would be stationed.

Such discussions should be held at the leaders’ level, he said.

Nasry Asfura has been declared the winner of Honduras’ razor-thin presidential election, after weeks of delays following technical problems and allegations of fraud.

The conservative National Party candidate – backed by US President Donald Trump – won with 40.3% of the vote, according to the National Electoral Council (CNE), edging out Salvador Nasralla of the centre-right Liberal Party, who got 39.5%.

In a post on X, Asfura said: “Honduras: I am ready to govern. I will not let you down.”

Meanwhile, Nasralla said at a press conference: “I will not accept a result built on omissions.” But he also urged his supporters to remain calm.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged all parties to respect the result “so that Honduran authorities may ensure a peaceful transition of authority”.

But the president of the country’s Congress, Luis Redondo, posted saying the result was “completely illegal”.

The vote was held on 30 November but the count was delayed twice by technical outages, which electoral officials called “inexcusable”.

The president of the CNE, Ana Paola Hall, blamed the private company tasked with tabulating the results for the delay.

She said the firm had carried out maintenance without warning or checking with the CNE.

The stoppage came a day after the portal displaying real-time results had crashed.

Results of the election were tight and, because of the tumultuous nature of the processing system, around 15% of the tally sheets had to be counted by hand for the winner to be decided.

There have been tensions in Honduras as a result of the delays with protests held across the country last week.

Thousands of supporters of the governing Libre party demonstrated in the capital Tegucigalpa over what they considered fraud in the vote.

The outgoing President, Xiomara Castro, had alleged that an “electoral coup” was taking place and earlier this month said the election was being marred by “interference” from Trump.

When he endorsed Asfura for president, Trump said there would be “hell to pay” if his very narrow lead was overturned in the count.

He also threatened to withdraw financial support from the US if Asfura didn’t win.

In a surprise move, the US president also pardoned Juan Orlando Hernández, a member of Asfura’s National Party, who was serving a 45-year jail sentence in the US on drug and weapons charges.

Castro was barred by the constitution from standing for a second term.

Nine days after the vote, Nasralla accused “corrupt people” of manipulating the vote count in the Central American nation. He also said Trump’s comments had damaged his chances of winning.

In his statement following the announcement of the result, Rubio said the US would “look forward to working with his incoming administration to advance our bilateral and regional security co-operation”, adding the two countries would “end illegal immigration” to the US, while strengthening economic ties.

China’s military aerospace sector is clearly in a period of rapid growth and innovation right now. As it continues to roll out new combat aircraft designs, crewed and uncrewed, for domestic use, it’s also lining up new exports of at least three of its in-production fighters. That’s one finding from the unclassified version of an annual Pentagon report to Congress on China’s military, released yesterday.

The latest Pentagon assessment of the military and security developments involving China doesn’t include much in the way of new information on the individual aircraft programs for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

The report does mention the debut in the last 12 months of “two stealth aircraft with novel tailless design features,” the aircraft that are now known informally as the J-36 and the J-XDS. Other debuts highlighted include the land-based J-35A fifth-generation combat aircraft and the J-15D carrier-borne electronic warfare aircraft. Also of note is the statement that the new airborne early warning and control aircraft based on the Y-20B transport is “meant to identify and track advanced stealth aircraft.”

Perhaps the most significant military aerospace development is the assertion in the report that China aims to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035, which would provide a total of nine (China’s third, the Fujian, began its inaugural sea trials in May). Recent imagery indicates that China is progressing with work on a new aircraft carrier, its fourth, which is expected to introduce nuclear propulsion. There are increasing reports that Beijing may also still be working on at least one more conventionally powered carrier, too. If these plans are accurate, then the gap between China’s fleet of carriers and the U.S. Navy’s 11 active nuclear-powered supercarriers is growing smaller at an even faster pace.

When it comes to China’s fighters for export, the report identifies the fifth-generation Shenyang FC-31 (export variant of the J-35), the fourth-generation Chengdu J-10C, and the JF-17, which it defines, somewhat puzzlingly, as a light combat aircraft. The last of these, also named Thunder, is a China-Pakistan coproduction, not used by the PLA.

In terms of orders already achieved, the Pentagon states that, as of May 2025, the FC-31 has no sales. However, it does say that there are “interested clients,” which include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The first prototype FC-31 took to the air in 2012 and was followed, in 2016, by a significantly reworked and greatly refined version, which we discussed in detail at the time. More recently, developmental focus has been on the J-35 version for carrier-based service with the PLA Navy. Alongside this, Shenyang has also developed the J-35A, a land-based stealth fighter that has been under development for some time and which publicly emerged late last year.

The long-term PLA Air Force plans for the J-35A remain unclear, but the carrier-capable J-35 may well now be in operational PLA Navy service. Since the base design was developed primarily for export, foreign sales are almost certainly still being sought.

Somewhat surprising is the fact that the Pentagon doesn’t link Pakistan with a potential FC-31 order. After all, there had been a previous announcement of official Pakistani plans to acquire a land-based version of the jet.

Pakistan is interested in buying FC-31.

The details are subject to further negotiations, but it’s unlikely we’ll sell the AF version of the J-35 (more developed form of FC-31).

It’s more likely a bespoke version of FC-31 for Pakistan
1/2 pic.twitter.com/X4PdRNSpAy

— Zhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳 (@zhao_dashuai) January 3, 2024

As for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, all these nations are known to be looking for new fighters.

Egypt was once destined to receive 24 Su-35s from Russia, before the threat of U.S. sanctions and a teased offer of F-15s put an end to that sale. In particular, Washington had said it would put sanctions on Cairo under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In the event, it appears those same Su-35s, or at least some of them, ended up in Algeria.

In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, the FC-31 would join a relatively packed list of competitors for that country’s next batch of fighters.

Saudi Arabia was long expected to buy more Eurofighter Typhoons, in a deal that would be brokered by BAE Systems of the United Kingdom. With that potential deal held up by concerns over Saudi human rights abuses, Saudi Arabia entered talks to buy 54 Dassault Rafale fighters, as we reported back in 2023. More recently, Boeing confirmed that it was offering the F-15EX Eagle II to Saudi Arabia, while last month it was reported that the Trump administration was weighing up the sale of up to 48 Lockheed Martin F-35As to the kingdom.

Selling the stealth jet to Saudi Arabia would be a significant policy shift, with Washington previously being unwilling to export F-35s to Arab states in the region, for fear of upsetting the strategic balance in relation to Israel. The same applies to the United Arab Emirates, where, like in Saudi Arabia, Beijing seems to be offering its stealthy FC-31 as a direct alternative to the F-35.

An arms package for the United Arab Emirates, approved at the end of the previous Trump administration and valued at up to $23.37 billion, included 50 F-35As, among other weapons. In 2021, the Emirati government reportedly said it wanted to scrap the plan, due to concerns over stringent safeguards to protect these systems — somewhat ironically — against Chinese espionage.

For the J-10C, the report notes that the only exports of this type are the 20 units delivered to Pakistan. These are part of two previous orders from Islamabad totaling 36 aircraft since 2020. It’s unclear when the remaining jets are set to be delivered to the Pakistan Air Force. Since entering Pakistani service, the J-10C saw its combat debut in this year’s clashes between India and Pakistan. Many observers pointed to the potentially significant impact made by the jets, especially in conjunction with their much-vaunted PL-15 air-to-air missiles — the latter of which you can read about in depth here. Regardless, China went into overdrive to publicize the claimed success of the J-10C and its Chinese-made missiles in Pakistan Air Force hands.

Meanwhile, Egypt, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Iran, and Bangladesh are all said to have expressed interest in the J-10C.

Aside from the aforementioned Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, and Bangladesh are all known to be looking for new fighter equipment.

Indonesia signed a contract for the 42 Rafales, which it followed up by announcing plans to buy up to 24 F-15EX fighters, specifically a derivative known as the F-15IND, as you can read more about here.

Dassault Rafale (T0302) Multirole Fighter destined for Indonesia spotted at Bordeaux–Mérignac Airport.

📸: Willy Josse – Bordeaux Mérignac Spotters pic.twitter.com/8cmgU6PmQB

— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) November 8, 2025

The prospects of a J-10C sale in Iran may be somewhat better.

Iran’s geriatric air force has been particularly hobbled by historic arms embargoes and the country’s increasing pariah status in the global community. In the past, Iran has been linked with a potential transfer of Su-35s, which so far hasn’t materialized, while the country’s fighter force almost certainly suffered heavy attrition in the conflict with Israel earlier this year.

As for Bangladesh, this country may also now be out of the market for a new fighter. Earlier this month, it was reported that it had signed a letter of intent with Italy’s Leonardo to buy an undisclosed number of Typhoons.

Turning to the JF-17, which is the lowest-end and cheapest offering of the three fighters, has also done the best in terms of exports.

As of May 2024, the Pentagon records JF-17 sales to Azerbaijan, Burma, and Nigeria, as well as Pakistan. The report also says that, as of 2024, negotiations were underway regarding a possible JF-17 transfer to Iraq.

Iraq is an intriguing candidate customer. Although it has been a keen customer of Chinese arms for many years, the country’s fighter needs would appear to be well met by its Lockheed Martin F-16s — provided they are still operational.

Back in 2023, the Pentagon reported that the F-16IQ had become Iraq’s most reliable platform for carrying out airstrikes against ISIS terrorists, at least in part due to a shortage of spare parts for Iraq’s Russian-made attack helicopters as a result of the war in Ukraine. U.S. and Iraqi authorities were said to be looking into the possibility of modernizing the F-16IQ’s notoriously limited air-to-air capabilities.

It’s unclear why Iraq might have started to look at buying JF-17s. One possibility is simply to increase the size of its fighter fleet and do it more cheaply, but it’s also possible that Iraq’s F-16s may be suffering from some of the same kinds of problems they did in the past. Indeed, as of 2020, it was announced that the withdrawal of maintenance teams from Iraq meant that its F-16 fleet was at risk of effectively ceasing to exist.

Overall, we don’t know how accurate the Pentagon’s assessments of potential export sales for China’s fighters are, but they remain interesting.

Not least for the fact that China, the world’s fourth-largest arms supplier, is increasingly active at the higher end of military aerospace exports. Indeed, with three different fighter designs on offer, it is well able to meet different requirements in terms of costs and capabilities. With its stealthy FC-31, China can offer a competitor not only to the F-35 but also to the Turkish TF Kaan and the South Korean KF-21 Boramae at the lower end of that segment.

Furthermore, China is increasingly well-positioned to offer complementary drones to operate alongside these crewed fighters. China is currently making great leaps in drone technology and is in hot pursuit of equivalents to the U.S. Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). Such designs could be offered paired with these fighters, putting even smaller countries within reach of the latest concept of operations and airpower capabilities.

In addition, as the Pentagon report notes, “arms transfers are a component of China’s foreign policy and complement assistance and initiatives that are part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Many developing countries, especially in Africa, purchase China’s weapons systems because they are less expensive than Western systems.” This latter point certainly holds true for the JF-17, in particular, although that jet has added significant new capabilities in its later versions, including an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.

Beijing is also more willing than most Western nations to offer financial incentives such as trade for minerals and flexible payment options.

Overall, all three fighters, like all Chinese weapons designs, also have the major advantage of being immune to the tight export restrictions that typically apply to Western products. The story of Beijing’s fighter exports indicates that it is far more likely to grant export licenses to countries that might be prohibited from buying a Western design.

Provided China can secure an export sale for the FC-31, this would be a hugely significant development, greatly helping China break farther out into the higher-end fighter marketplace — especially if it is offered at an attractive price. At the same time, foreign orders for the jet would help offset further development costs and lower production costs, making it even more attractive on the export market.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

These are the key developments from day 1,400 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Thursday, December 25:

Fighting

• An explosion in Moscow killed three people, including two police officers, just days after a car bomb killed a high-ranking Russian general in the same area of the capital.
• An official from Ukraine’s military intelligence, known as GUR, told The Associated Press news agency that the attack had been carried out as part of a Ukrainian operation and the two police officers were targeted for taking part in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• ‍Russian air ‍defence units downed 16 Ukrainian drones en route to Moscow throughout Wednesday, the capital’s Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said.
• Sobyanin said the drones were repelled ​over a period of about 17 hours, and emergency ‍crews were examining fragments where the drones hit the ground, but no damage was reported.
• Two of four major airports ‍servicing Moscow were forced to limit operations for a time due to the drone attacks, Russia’s civil aviation authority said on Telegram.
• Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its aerial defence units destroyed 172 Ukrainian drones overnight, nearly half of them over regions bordering Ukraine.

• Ukraine said its drones ​had struck the Yefremov synthetic rubber plant ‌in Russia’s Tula region, south of Moscow, and a storage facility for marine drones in Russian-occupied Crimea.
• Tula regional governor, Dmitry Milyaev, said ‌debris from a downed Ukrainian drone ignited a fire at an industrial ‌site, and Russian air defence units destroyed 12 Ukrainian drones over the region.
• A sunflower oil spill, caused by Russian aerial bombardments, has contaminated the shoreline around the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa, killing wildlife and triggering warnings from conservationists, the AFP news agency reports.
• “The cause was damage to sunflower oil tanks as a result of massive enemy attacks on port infrastructure, causing some of the oil to spill,” Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper said in a statement. The Pivdenny port in the region was temporarily closed on Wednesday to help with the cleanup.
• A Russian-backed court in occupied Ukraine sentenced a Colombian man to 19 years in prison for fighting for Kyiv’s army.
• Russia’s Prosecutor General said the Supreme Court in the Russian-controlled area of Ukraine’s Donetsk region sentenced Oscar Mauricio Blanco Lopez, 42, to 19 years in jail. The Colombian arrived in Ukraine in May 2024 to sign up with the Ukrainian army and had been “taken prisoner by Russian servicemen” in December 2025.

Ceasefire talks

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed for the first time details of an agreement between the United States and Ukrainian negotiators on ending the war with Russia. The 20-point plan, agreed on by US and Ukrainian negotiators after marathon talks, is now being reviewed by Moscow.
• As part of the plan, President Zelenskyy said Ukraine would be willing to withdraw troops from the country’s eastern industrial heartland if Moscow also pulled back and the area becomes a demilitarised zone monitored by international forces.
• A similar arrangement could be possible for the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently under Russian control, Zelenskyy said. The Ukrainian leader said that any peace plan would need to be put to a referendum in Ukraine.

• Asked about the latest development in ceasefire talks, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would decide its position based on information received by Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who met with US envoys in Florida over the weekend.
• Russia has given no indication that it will agree to any kind of withdrawal from land it has seized in Ukraine. Moscow has also insisted that Ukraine relinquish the remaining territory it still holds in the Donbas. Russia has captured most of Luhansk and about 70 percent of Donetsk – the two areas that make up the Donbas.

Politics and diplomacy

• A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, Russia’s state pollster VTsIOM said, in a sign that the Kremlin could be testing public reaction to a possible peace settlement as diplomatic efforts ⁠to end the conflict intensify.
• During the pollster’s year-end presentation, VTsIOM Deputy Head Mikhail Mamonov said 70 percent of the 1,600 respondents ​saw 2026 as a more “successful” year for Russia than 2025, while for 55 percent that hope ‍was linked to a possible end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• A Russian court has scheduled the first public hearing in a criminal case against German sculptor Jacques Tilly, who is accused of discrediting the Russian military through his satirical Carnival floats depicting Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
• The court in Moscow said the trial will begin on December 30 and proceedings will be held in absentia, as Tilly – who faces up to 10 years in jail or a fine – is not in Russia.
• Zelenskyy said in his Christmas address on Wednesday that despite marking the holiday at a “difficult” time, the nation’s unity remains intact. “Ukrainians are together tonight,” Zelenskyy said, adding the country had “without a doubt” been changed by the war. “It hardly matters what dishes are on the table – what matters is who is at the table,” he said.

Regional security

• France’s ‍President Emmanuel Macron said he spoke ⁠with NATO ​chief Mark Rutte to ‍discuss the situation in Ukraine and ‍the work undertaken ⁠by the “coalition of the willing”. “Starting in January in Paris, we ​will ‌continue the work begun within this framework to provide ‌Ukraine with solid security ‌guarantees, a ⁠prerequisite for a robust and lasting peace,” Macron ‌said on social media.
• Democratic senators in the US have urged President ‍Donald Trump to ‍reverse a recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors, warning the move leaves a dangerous leadership vacuum that allows adversaries like Russia and China to expand their influence. The Trump administration in recent days has ordered career diplomats serving across Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America back to Washington to ensure US missions abroad reflect its “America First” priorities.

Economics

• Kazakhstan’s exports of its flagship CPC Blend of oil will be their lowest in 14 months in December, as bad weather delays efforts to repair Russian loading infrastructure after Ukrainian drone strikes last month, two sources told the Reuters news agency.
• On November 29, Ukrainian drones hit the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal located near ‍Russia’s Black Sea port ⁠of Novorossiysk, leaving just one out of three jetties operational and prolonging export delays. Poor weather has added to the difficulty of carrying out maintenance work necessary to allow exports to recover.
• Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance said ‍it ‍completed the settlement of a deal to restructure $2.6bn of growth-linked debt.

The blast tore through a mosque in Maiduguri as worshippers gathered for evening prayers, witnesses say.

An explosion has ripped through a mosque in northeastern Nigeria as worshippers gathered for their evening prayers, killing and wounding several people, according to media reports.

The blast took place at about 6pm on Wednesday (17:00 GMT) in the city of Maiduguri in Borno State, the Reuters and AFP news agencies reported, citing witnesses.

Police spokesman Nahum Daso confirmed the explosion and told AFP that an explosive ordnance team was already on site at the mosque in Maiduguri’s Gamboru market.

There was no official word on casualties.

But mosque leader Malam Abuna Yusuf told the AFP at least eight people had died, while a militia leader, Babakura Kolo, put the figure at seven.

Another witness, Musa Yusha’u, told AFP that he saw “many victims being taken away for medical treatment”.

The cause of the blast was not immediately known, but it occurred ‍in a ⁠city that has been at the heart of an armed rebellion waged by Boko Haram and ISIL’s (ISIS) offshoot in the region, the Islamic State West Africa Province, for nearly two decades.

The conflict has killed at least 40,000 people and displaced about two million from their homes since 2009, according to the United Nations.

Though the violence has waned since its peak about a decade ago, it has spilt into neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon.

Concerns are also growing about a resurgence of violence in parts of the northeast, where armed groups remain capable of mounting deadly attacks despite years of sustained military operations.

Maiduguri itself – once the scene of nightly gun battles and bombings – has been calm in recent years, with the last major attack recorded in 2021.

Syrian officials confirm the arrest of ISIL leader Taha al-Zoubi in a security operation near Damascus.

Syria’s Ministry of Interior has announced the arrest of Taha al-Zoubi, a leading figure in the ISIL (ISIS) group, in the Damascus countryside, the country’s SANA news agency reported.

The report said a “tightly executed security operation” was carried out that led to the arrest of al-Zoubi, adding that “a suicide belt and a military weapon were seized in his possession”.

SANA quoted Brigadier General Ahmad al-Dalati, head of internal security in the Damascus countryside, as saying the raid targeted an ISIL hideout in Maadamiya, southwest of Damascus, and was carried out “in cooperation” with an anti-ISIL alliance that includes the United States-led coalition fighting the group.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has not publicly confirmed the operation.

Al-Dalati said al-Zoubi, also known as Abu Omar Tibiya, served as the group’s “wali”,or governor, of Damascus and that several alleged aides were also detained.

The official added that the arrest dealt a “crippling blow” to ISIL networks in the capital region and showed the “readiness of the security apparatus”.

“We send a clear message to anyone who dares to engage in the project of terrorism or lend support to ISIS: The hand of justice will reach them wherever they are,” al-Dalati said.

ISIL, which views the new government in Damascus as illegitimate, has mainly concentrated its activities against Kurdish forces in the north.

At its peak, ISIL ruled an area half the size of the United Kingdom, spanning across Iraq and Syria, with Raqqa in the latter being the capital of the armed group’s self-declared “caliphate”.

The group was notorious for its brutality, carrying out massacres of Syrians and Iraqis and beheadings of foreign captives.

ISIL was defeated in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria two years later, but its fighters and cadres of armed group members still carry out deadly attacks in both countries and elsewhere, including in Africa and Afghanistan.

US Justice Department says it requires weeks to process newly found Epstein-related files under transparency and court rules.

More than a million additional documents that are potentially related to late sex offender and financier Jeffrey Epstein have been uncovered, according to the United States Department of Justice (DOJ).

In a social media post on Wednesday, the DOJ said it is reviewing the documents and will need “a few more weeks” before proceeding with a congressionally mandated release of the information.

“The US Attorney for the Southern District of New York and the FBI have informed the Department of Justice that they have uncovered over a million more documents potentially related to the Jeffrey Epstein case,” the DOJ said in a statement, adding that more time is needed to comply with the Epstein Files Transparency Act, the law enacted last month that requires the government to open its files on Epstein and his longtime confidante Ghislaine Maxwell.

The DOJ insisted in its statement that its lawyers are “working around the clock” to review those documents and make the redactions required under the law, passed nearly unanimously by Congress.

“Due to the mass volume of material, this process may take a few more weeks. The Department will continue to fully comply with federal law and President [Donald] Trump’s direction to release the files,” the DOJ said.

Full disclosure

A dozen US senators are calling on the Justice Department’s watchdog to examine the department’s failure to release all records pertaining to Epstein by Friday’s congressionally mandated deadline, saying victims “deserve full disclosure” and the “peace of mind” of an independent audit.

Senator Lisa Murkowski, a member of Trump’s Republican Party, joined 11 Democrats in signing a letter on Wednesday urging Acting Inspector General Don Berthiaume to audit the Justice Department’s compliance with the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

“Given the [Trump] Administration’s historic hostility to releasing the files, politicisation of the Epstein case more broadly, and failure to comply with the Epstein Files Transparency Act, a neutral assessment of its compliance with the statutory disclosure requirements is essential,” the senators wrote.

Full transparency, they said, “is essential in identifying members of our society who enabled and participated in Epstein’s crimes”.

Republican Representative Thomas Massie, a co-sponsor of the transparency act, posted on Wednesday on X: “DOJ did break the law by making illegal redactions and by missing the deadline.”

Despite the deadline, the Justice Department has said it plans to release records on a rolling basis. It blamed the delay on the time-consuming process of obscuring survivors’ names and other identifying information.

More batches of records were released over the weekend and on Tuesday. The department has not given any notice when more records might arrive.

“The reason why we are still reviewing documents and still continuing our process is simply to protect victims,” Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche told the NBC television network’s Meet the Press programme on Sunday.

“So the same individuals that are out there complaining about the lack of documents that were produced on Friday are the same individuals who apparently don’t want us to protect victims,” he argued.

We want to wish our commenting crew the most wonderful holiday with their families and friends! Enjoy, relax, discuss, and have a very merry Christmas!

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

This week’s caption reads:

Boys at a Dr Barnardo’s home have fun in the air raid shelter they built themselves at Christmas, 17th December 1940. (Photo by David Parker/Fox Photos/Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

Also a reminder:

Prime Directives!

• If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you. 
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