threats

Israel has been trying to make the case for its war on Iran by portraying the country as a threat to European cities, warning Iranian missiles could reach capitals like London and Paris.

One of the missiles fired reportedly failed in flight, while the other was intercepted by a US warship. The BBC understands the reports are accurate. There are doubts whether Iran has missiles which are capable of reaching Diego Garcia, which is about 2,350 miles from Iran.

March 18 (UPI) — Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard defended U.S. military strikes on Iran during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing Wednesday, calling them a strategic success.

Senators challenged Gabbard to reconcile the words of President Donald Trump with the intelligence her department has received on Iran. When pressed, Gabbard yielded that Trump has the final say on what threats the United States faces.

When the United States performed strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June, Trump said Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “obliterated.” Earlier this month, he said Iran’s development of nuclear weapons posed an imminent nuclear threat to national security, justifying military action.

Gabbard affirmed Wednesday that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was “obliterated” in the June strikes.

“It is not the intelligence community’s responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat,” Gabbard said. “That is up to the president, based on a volume of information he receives.”

Gabbard was once a vocal opponent of engaging in a war with Iran, even selling shirts that read “No War With Iran” in 2019 while she campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Iran is one of the United States’ top adversaries, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s “Annual Threat Assessment” said. China, Russia and North Korea are also on that list.

In the 19 days since the war with Iran began, Gabbard said the Iranian regime “appears to be intact but largely degraded.”

“Even so, Iran and its proxies remain capable of and continue to attack U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East,” Gabbard said. “The IC assesses that if a hostile regime survives it will seek to begin a yearslong effort to rebuild its missiles and UAV forces.”

As United States President Donald Trump tries to build a coalition of navies willing to open the Strait of Hormuz, some countries are negotiating safe passage directly with Iran, underscoring a new de facto reality, analysts say: Regardless of military results, Tehran is calling the shots on who gets to use the world’s most important energy waterway.

After US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian military leadership responded by focusing on its most potent form of leverage – Iran’s geography. The country controls the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global crude oil and natural gas supplies pass. It is 33km (20 miles) wide at its narrowest point, so any naval force that wants to cross it becomes easy prey for Iranian attacks coming from the mainland.

Considering insurance companies’ low appetite for risk, it took relatively few attacks on vessels in the strait – or just the threat of them – to undermine market confidence and send insurance premiums shooting up, causing a near paralysis in maritime traffic. About 20 vessels have been attacked since the start of the war.

“Iran has effectively proven that it dictates the terms of passage through the strait. They have now shown they are the gatekeeper of this important chokepoint. This will elevate the status of Iran in the geography of the Gulf,” said Andreas Krieg, an associate professor in Security Studies at King’s College London and a fellow at King’s Institute of Middle Eastern Studies. This will be the new reality for the foreseeable future, he added.

Meanwhile, crude prices have risen above $100 a barrel, more than 20 percent higher than pre-war prices, forcing countries to make the biggest releases of emergency reserves in history. Gas prices have risen by more than 40 percent since the war began.

Trump initially floated the idea of ordering the US Navy to escort vessels through the waterway. He then appealed to some countries to send warships and warned NATO members they would face “a very bad” future if these allies failed to help in opening the strait. But the appeal was either turned down or received noncommittal responses. Japan said it had no plans to deploy naval vessels. Australia ruled out sending ships. The United Kingdom said it would not be drawn into the wider war. Germany sent a clear message: “This is not our war”.

Others decided to take action – but not of the kind that Trump asked for. On Saturday, two India-flagged gas tankers passed through the strait after days of negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran, including a phone call between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ships from Pakistan, Turkiye and China also have transited through the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times has reported that Italy and France have also reached out to Iran for deals although Italian authorities have rejected making such an overture.

Meanwhile, Windward, a maritime intelligence tracking group, said that while traffic in the strait on Tuesday remained 97 percent below average, a growing number of ships have been passing through Iran’s territorial waters, suggesting that Tehran is allowing “permission-based transit”.

‘It is up to us to decide’

There is a precedent for US naval forces to escort convoys through the strait dating back to the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. But today’s scenario is different, experts said. Back then, the US, while it was backing Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, was not a direct party to the conflict. Iran was still in a post-revolutionary process of consolidating power, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was nowhere near as organised as it is today.

Today, Iran has drones that its factories are capable of producing on a large scale and has been using them. Iranian forces could also use small boats to assault tankers, deploy mines and engage in other guerrilla-style tactics. While there are conflicting reports on whether Iran has placed mines in the strait, experts said it would be a counterproductive move for Tehran because it would disrupt the passage for any ships – Iranian vessels included – and it would take away from Tehran the power to choose who may pass.

Iranian officials are aware of their geographic advantage. “This is up to our military to decide,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday, referring to who will be allowed to use the strait.

Pro-government figures increasingly frame the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic bargaining tool beyond the war itself, suggesting the waterway could be used to extract compensation, sanctions relief or broader economic concessions after the war, Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran and visiting fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, commented on X.

Recent attacks seem to suggest that Iran wants to increase its pressure on the energy market.

On Tuesday, a drone attack caused a fire at the port of Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates’s only crude export terminal. It is located outside the eastern entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing its exports to circumvent it. The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen could also further squeeze oil prices by disrupting the Bab al-Mandeb strait. That would force the US to operate across multiple maritime theatres. So far, the Houthis have not carried out such attacks, but this month, they said they were ready to strike at any ‌moment.

Still, the US is focused on applying maximum pressure on Tehran and forcing it to open the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command, the US military’s combat command responsible for operations in the Middle East, said early on Wednesday that its forces had used 2,270kg (5,000lb) bunker-busting munitions against antiship missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has also ordered amphibious ships carrying thousands of US Marines to move to the Middle East, and some experts believe the US might try to seize Kharg Island, a tiny piece of land in the northern Gulf where 90 percent of Iranian crude oil is exported from. The US has already bombed what it said were military sites on the island.

Such an operation, however, might do little to force Iran into opening the Strait of Hormuz, Krieg said. The island is 500km 310 miles) from the strait, and should the US take control of it, it would expose US Marines to Iranian fire. Should Iran see its key terminal being seized, it could also opt to mine the strait outright, having fewer reasons to allow some vessels to pass through.

“The issue with the Strait of Hormuz is really not a military one. … It’s a market issue, and confidence cannot be restored by the military. Confidence can be restored through diplomacy only,” Krieg said.

Miguel Diaz-Canel says discussions held to find solutions ‘through dialogue’ as Washington tightens oil blockade.

Cuban ⁠officials have ⁠held talks with the United States government to seek solutions to the crippling ⁠blockade imposed by Washington, President Miguel Diaz-Canel said, as the Trump administration’s threats to take over the Caribbean nation escalate.

“These talks have been aimed at finding solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences ‌we have between the two nations,” Diaz-Canel said in a video aired on national television on Friday.

Diaz-Canel said “international factors have facilitated these exchanges”.

He said no petroleum shipments have arrived on the island in the past three months, which he blamed on the US energy blockade.

Critical oil shipments from Venezuela were halted after the US attacked the South American country and abducted President Nicolas Maduro.

Cuba’s western region was hit by a massive blackout last week, leaving millions without power.

The talks come days after President Donald Trump levelled his latest threat at Cuba, saying the White House’s plans for the Caribbean nation may include a “friendly takeover”.

‘Impact tremendous’

Diaz-Canel added that Cuba, which produces 40 percent of its petroleum, has been generating its own power but that it hasn’t been sufficient to meet demand.

He said the lack of power has affected communications, education and transportation, and that the government has had to postpone surgeries for tens of thousands of people as a result.

“The impact is tremendous,” he said.

The president added that the aim was “to determine the willingness of both parties to take concrete actions for the benefit of the people of both countries”.

“And in addition, to identify areas of cooperation to confront threats and guarantee the security and peace of both nations, as well as in the region,” he said.

For decades, severe US economic sanctions on Cuba have crippled its economy and cut it off from global trade. In response, Cuba has depended on oil supplies from foreign allies, including Mexico, Russia and Venezuela.

Police vowed Friday to detain any suspects behind possible terror threats targeting K-pop juggernaut BTS‘ comeback concert set to draw hundreds of thousands to downtown Seoul next week.

The group is scheduled to perform before some 22,000 fans in Gwanghwamun Square on March 21, with police estimating as many as 260,000 people to gather around the area that day.

The Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency said it would deploy police commandos to inspect the site, noting it could not rule out the possibility of terror in connection with the current conflict in the Middle East.

“If police resources are wasted or the event is disrupted due to public threats, such as bomb threats, (we) will pursue and apprehend (the suspects) to the end under the principle of investigation under detention,” it said.

Police plan to set up metal detectors at the venue’s entrances as well as barricades to prevent possible accidents or acts of terror, such as a vehicle-ramming attack.

They also asked concertgoers to minimize personal items as security checks will be strengthened.

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Investors placed strong bets on Tuesday that Donald Trump could bring the war in Iran to a rapid conclusion, even as both sides escalated threats. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran declared that no oil would leave the Middle East until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease, prompting Trump to threaten that any attempt to block tanker traffic would be met with strikes “twenty times harder.”

Despite the rhetoric, markets quickly reversed the historic surge in crude prices seen on Monday. Brent crude briefly surged to nearly $120 a barrel, a level not seen since mid‑2022, but fell back to around $92 by Tuesday morning. Futures volumes were low, reflecting both caution and the fact that traders were recalibrating risk based on Trump’s comments that the U.S. was “very far ahead” of his initial four- to five-week timeframe for the conflict. Asian and European share prices staged a recovery from earlier steep falls, signaling that markets were treating Trump’s statements as a de-escalation signal, even if the on-the-ground situation remained dire.

Analysts noted that while the market’s reaction reflects optimism about a short conflict, underlying risks remain. Suvro Sarkar of DBS Bank observed that benchmark Middle Eastern grades like Murban and Dubai crude remain above $100 per barrel, meaning the fundamental pressures on supply have not dissipated.

On the Ground: Intensified Conflict

Meanwhile, the human and strategic realities on the ground remain stark. Tehran residents described the heaviest bombardment of the conflict yet, with strikes across the city leaving civilians fearful and homes damaged. One resident said, “It was like hell. They were bombing everywhere, every part of Tehran… my children are afraid to sleep now. We have nowhere to go.”

Israel is simultaneously operating under the assumption that Trump could end the war at any moment, sources familiar with its military plans told Reuters. This has encouraged Israeli forces to maximize damage on Iranian targets before any potential ceasefire, highlighting the tension between the short-term operational calculus and long-term strategic objectives.

Iran’s appointment of hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader signals defiance against U.S. pressure to influence Iranian leadership, underscoring Tehran’s unwillingness to yield to external demands despite the military pressure.

Strategic Implications: Oil, Leadership, and Geopolitics

The war has effectively halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz policy measures such as easing sanctions on Russia and releasing strategic oil reserves, are interpreted by markets as mitigating factors that could prevent a prolonged energy crisis.

However, the underlying political and military dynamics suggest that a rapid resolution may not meet all stated U.S. objectives. Ending the conflict quickly to restore oil flows would likely leave Iran’s leadership intact, which contrasts with Trump’s previous maximalist demands for influence over Iran’s succession. Israel’s objectives diverge further, as it continues to seek regime change and to weaken Tehran’s ability to strike beyond its borders, while U.S. officials emphasize missile and nuclear containment.

Human and Regional Costs

The war has already inflicted significant human costs. Iran’s U.N. ambassador reported at least 1,332 civilian deaths and thousands wounded since the airstrikes began. Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting Gulf states have damaged infrastructure, closed airports, and disrupted hotels, while retaliatory Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed scores amid ongoing efforts to neutralize Hezbollah.

Domestically, Iran has suppressed dissent and anti-government protests following the death of Ali Khamenei, further complicating the social dynamics that external military action interacts with. Large-scale rallies in support of Mojtaba Khamenei demonstrate public mobilization in favor of the hardline leadership, which may limit the U.S. and Israel’s capacity to influence internal political outcomes even after the war concludes.

Analysis: Financial, Strategic, and Geopolitical Interplay

Markets are betting on a short conflict because of political signaling, but the broader picture is far more complex. Oil prices remain sensitive to supply disruptions, and the potential for renewed escalations persists. The market response highlights how sentiment can temporarily override fundamental risks, yet volatility is likely to continue as long as strategic objectives, military operations, and leadership decisions remain unresolved.

From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict illustrates the tension between military objectives and economic consequences. A rapid end to the war would stabilize energy markets and global growth expectations but may leave U.S. and Israeli goals partially unmet. Conversely, prolonging the conflict to pursue maximalist aims risks a sustained oil shock, regional instability, and wider economic fallout, echoing lessons from past Middle East crises in the 1970s.

Analysts emphasize that energy markets, geopolitical strategy, and human costs are tightly intertwined: traders respond quickly to political statements, but the underlying realities strikes, leadership decisions, and supply chain vulnerabilities ensure that uncertainty will remain high. The delicate balance between military pressure, diplomacy, and market psychology will determine whether the Iran conflict resolves quickly or evolves into a more protracted crisis.

With information from Reuters.

The president of the United Arab Emirates spoke for the first time on the widening war in the Middle East as Iran continues to strike Gulf countries hosting US military assets with drones and missiles.

“The UAE has thick skin and bitter flesh – we are no easy prey,” said Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in comments aired by Abu Dhabi TV on Saturday as he visited wounded patients in a hospital.

He added the UAE is in “a period of war” but would “emerge stronger”.

In a social media post, Sheikh Mohamed said the UAE, which has seen attacks affecting hubs such as airports, tourist attractions, and the US consulate in Dubai, is prepared to confront “threats” against the “security and the protection of all citizens”.

One driver was killed when debris from an intercepted projectile slammed into his vehicle, Dubai’s Media Office said, describing the victim as Asian but providing no further details.

Sheikh Mohamed’s comments were aired as the region entered a second week of war sparked by a major US-Israeli attack on Iran.

Earlier, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian offered an apology to neighbouring nations for launching strikes on their countries housing US military bases. His comments were swiftly contradicted by Iranian judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, also a member of the interim leadership council.

“Evidence from Iran’s armed forces shows that the geography of some countries in the region is openly and covertly at the disposal of the enemy,” he said. “The heavy attacks on these targets will continue.”

Pezeshkian himself rolled back on his remarks that Gulf countries would not be targeted unless attacks originated from their territories, caveating that while his country emphasised “the preservation and continuation of friendly relations,” Iran still has an “inherent right” to defend itself against US-Israeli aggression.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also clarified the leader’s comments on X, saying, “President Pezeshkian expressed openness to de-escalation within our region – provided that our neighbours’ airspace, territory, and waters are not used to attack the Iranian people.”

Iran retaliates after attack on water supplies

All the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – have been targeted because of the presence of US assets within and around their borders.

In the Gulf, the deadly attacks have caused major disruption to flights, closure of airspace, and heavy knock-on impacts on oil-and-gas production reverberating across the world.

On Saturday, Iranian state media reported the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted US forces at Bahrain’s Jufair airbase in retaliation for an attack on a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island.

Araghchi called the US attack on the plant a “dangerous move with grave consequences”, accusing the US of committing a “blatant and desperate crime”, which affected the water supply to 30 villages.

Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, later said the attack was carried out with support from one of the airbases in a southern neighbouring country, stressing nations will not enjoy peace as long as the US has bases in the region.

Harlan Ullman, a senior adviser with the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera that attacks on water supplies could bring “greater chaos” to the Gulf.

“About 95 percent of all water in the Gulf comes from desalination,” he said. “If Iran wants to target desalination and water installation plants, they can bring the Gulf to a halt.”

Other attacks on Gulf

The UAE, a US ally and home to US military installations, has been the most heavily targeted nation in the Gulf during the war.

The Emirati Ministry of Defence said on Saturday it was targeted with 16 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones.

Hours after Pezeshkian’s apology, the IRGC said their drones struck a US air combat centre at al-Dhafra airbase near Abu Dhabi, capital of the UAE.

Later, an unidentified object was intercepted near Dubai airport, the world’s busiest for international traffic, forcing it to briefly suspend operations.

Iranian attacks also hit Abu Dhabi airport, the upmarket Palm Jumeirah development, and the Burj Al Arab luxury hotel over the past week, while drone debris caused a fire at the US consulate in Dubai.

Also on Saturday, Qatar’s armed forces intercepted a missile attack, according to the Ministry of Defence. No immediate details were released about possible damage or casualties.

In Saudi Arabia, the defence ministry said a ballistic missile landed in an uninhabited area after being launched towards Prince Sultan Air Base, southeast of Riyadh, which hosts US troops.

Kuwait also reported intercepting a drone while the country’s national oil company announced a “precautionary” cut to its production of crude because of Iranian attacks and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for Gulf hydrocarbons.

Iran to select new supreme leader

Posting on social media on Saturday, US President Donald Trump warned his country would hit Iran “very hard” and threatened to expand strikes to include new targets.

Speaking at an event hosting Latin American leaders in Miami, Florida, Trump said on Saturday his country’s forces sank 42 Iranian navy ships in three days.

Israel launched what its military described as a new wave of strikes on Tehran and Isfahan. The military said on Saturday that more than 80 fighter jets completed a wave of strikes on Iranian army sites, missile launchers and other targets.

In a statement, the army said targets hit in Iran included missile storage sites, ballistic missile launchers and military facilities linked to Iran’s security forces.

Among the attacks, it said it struck 16 aircraft at Tehran’s Mehrabad airport, which belonged to the Quds Force branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard overseeing its foreign operations.

The Israeli military reported missiles were fired from ‌Iran at Israel on eight different occasions on Saturday, setting off air raid sirens in parts of the country and actioning air defences.

Iranian state media reported Saturday that the IRGC hit a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in Hormuz.

Iran’s Assembly of Experts will be meeting in the next 24 hours to choose a new supreme leader, according to assembly member Ayatollah Mozafari.

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, has rejected Trump’s demands to have a say in selecting Iran’s new supreme leader.