Mercosur: How Macron’s domestic weakness undercut his Brussels clout
France has been mired in political turmoil since Macron dissolved the National Assembly in June 2024 – and on Friday, Paris was effectively sidelined at a turning point moment for the European Union, as it failed to stop the Mercosur agreement.
After weeks of farmers’ protests and under the threat of a no-confidence vote at home, Macron chose to oppose a deal negotiated by the European Commission over 25 years with Mercosur countries Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
If implemented, the agreement would create a 700 million-strong free-trade area, opening new markets for EU companies at a time when the bloc’s largest trading partner, the US, is becoming more inward-looking.
The countries who backed the deal, led by Germany, Spain and the Commission itself, proved determined to confront mounting global economic tensions by diversifying trade ties beyond the US and China despite protests from farmers, who for years have warned the deal could expose them to unfair competition from Latin American imports.
France in particular amplified those concerns, piling pressure on the Commission, which holds exclusive EU competence over trade policy.
According to one EU diplomat who spoke to Euronews on condition of anonymity, France on Friday thanked the Commission for the concessions it had made to farmers over the past year but ultimately justified its continued opposition to the deal with a reference to political reasons.
The signature ceremony between the EU and the Mercosur countries will take place on January 17 in Asunción, Paraguay, sources familiar with the matter told Euronews.
As expected, Italy – whose support France needed to secure a blocking minority of four member states representing 35% of the EU population – backed the agreement.
But Italy also emerged with tangible gains for its farmers, securing all the guarantees France had pushed for, including early access to €45 billion from the Common Agricultural Policy and a retroactive freeze of the EU carbon border tax on fertilisers.
For von der Leyen, the outcome marks a victory too.
The Commission aggressively pushed the deal for a year, jumping hurdles to reach a technical and political agreement. Von der Leyen was relentless despite the opposition from Paris, which in the past would have been enough to make the Commission back down facing the ire of the French government.
Former Commission President Jean-Claude Junker famously used to say, “La France…C’est la France!”, referring to Paris’ habit of getting its way under the EU’s indulgence. Those days now appear to be coming to an end.
Von der Leyen capitalises on Macron’s weakness
Macron’s shock decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024 stunned European partners and altered the balance in Brussels. Von der Leyen, now heading the EU executive for a second term, has moved to sideline the French president despite his decisive backing for her appointment in 2019.
Just three months after the dissolution, she capitalised on Macron’s weakened position to push out Thierry Breton, a powerful French commissioner seen as too dominant.
Breton was the architect of two landmark EU digital laws, the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act, and a relentless defender of French interests in Brussels as well as a critical voice within von der Leyen’s College of Commissioners where disagreements with the chief are not often tolerated.
Still, Macron agreed to replace him with one of his oldest allies, Stéphane Séjourné, a former Renew leader in the European Parliament who served as French foreign minister from January to September 2024.
In Brussels, Séjourné is viewed as less influential his predecessor. Where Breton’s former portfolio also covered digital policy, defence and space, Séjourné now holds a far narrower portfolio focused on industrial strategy and the single market.
France’s waning influence has not gone unnoticed among diplomats from other countries, who have grown accustomed to seeing the bloc’s second-largest member paralysed by political fragmentation and partisan infighting.
The government’s painful efforts to rein in soaring debt and deficits have prompted diplomats to joke that France has become “the most frugal member state” – a major break from its traditional embrace of heavy public spending.
Good ideas, bad timing for Emmanuel Macron
The French president now finds himself in an awkward position.
Paris still retains enough clout to sway key discussions, most notably when it comes to the “Made In Europe” preference, long advocated by Macron and now widely endorsed by other leaders as a counterweight against foreign competition.
On foreign policy, Macron has continued to shape Europe’s key debates. He made headlines as the first European leader to raise the prospect of deploying national forces to Ukraine; initially dismissed as unrealistic, the idea gained new traction after Donald Trump returned to the White House and upended US policy toward Russia.
The notion of an on-the-ground deployment was soon picked up by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, since when the two leaders have co-led the “Coalition of the Willing” to design security guarantees for Ukraine.
Earlier this week, both Starmer and Macron signed a declaration of intent with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to establish a multinational force in the event of a ceasefire.
Still, the Mercosur deal exposes his weaknesses where it hurts him the most – at home.
Jorge Liboreiro contributed reporting.
