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The race pitting a candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump against Congressman Thomas Massie, a rare Republican critic of Israel, has become the most expensive House of Representatives primary contest in the history of the United States.

The avalanche of spending, totalling more than $34m by Monday, according to official records, highlights the significance of the elections that could oust one of the few Republican opponents to the war with Iran.

In the final stretch of the campaign ahead of Tuesday’s vote, Massie has sought to highlight the oversized role of pro-Israel groups – including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) – in the race.

He said the election will be a “referendum on foreign policy” and whether pro-Israel lobby groups will be able to “bully” members of Congress.

“You can tell that I’m ahead in the polls, and they’re desperate,” Massie told ABC News on Sunday.

“That’s why they’re sending the secretary of war to my district tomorrow. That’s why the president’s losing sleep and tweeting about this. That’s why AIPAC has dumped another $3m into my race this weekend.”

Trump has been incessantly bashing Massie on social media, and in an unusual move, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has travelled to Kentucky to campaign for Ed Gallrein, the Navy SEAL veteran challenging the congressman.

Massie has been critical of the unconditional US military aid to Israel and of the country’s abuses in Gaza and Lebanon. He has also helped spearhead the push for the release of government files related to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The money

Despite the intensity of the race, the candidates have not raised record amounts of money themselves.

The bulk of the spending, more than $25.8m, has come from outside groups, known as super political action committees (super PACs).

Super PACs are usually used by special interest groups to spend heavily to oppose or support a candidate without the constraints of legal limits on direct campaign contributions.

Pro-Israel groups and donors have played a central role in the flood of funds and ads directed against Massie, with three groups linked to them spending more than $15.5m in the race, Federal Election Commission (FEC) data shows.

United Democracy Project (UDP), AIPAC’s election arm, has spent more than $4.1m.

The RJC Victory Fund, which is affiliated with the Republican Jewish Coalition, came in with around $3.9m.

MAGA KY has been the largest spender, at $7.5m.

The PAC’s finances have not been made fully public. But available records show that one of the group’s top funders is Paul Singer, a pro-Israel billionaire investor who has also made the largest individual donation to UDP over the past year – $2.5m.

MAGA KY also received funds from Preserve America PAC, a group linked to Israeli-American megadonor Miriam Adelson.

Details of the finances of Preserve America PAC remain unclear for this election cycle. But Adelson donated $106m to the PAC in 2024 to help elect Trump as president.

Trump has openly admitted that Adelson and her late husband Sheldon Adelson have influenced his Middle East policies.

Before the race in Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District, the most expensive House primary was the 2024 election that ousted then-Democratic Congressman Jamaal Bowman, in which pro-Israel groups, including AIPAC, were also the largest spenders.

The third most expensive primary also involved AIPAC and its pro-Israel allies, who succeeded in helping defeat progressive Congresswoman Cori Bush in 2024.

The Trump factor

Beyond the millions of dollars in pro-Israel spending, Massie needs to survive another potent force in Republican politics – Trump’s wrath.

The US president has all but purged the party of lawmakers who have disagreed with him on major issues.

Most recently, Senator Bill Cassidy – who voted to convict Trump after the January 6, 2021, US Capitol riot – lost his primary to a challenger backed by the US president.

Trump is actively campaigning against Massie. In less than 24 hours between Sunday and Monday, the US president fired off three social media posts berating the congressman, calling him “weak”, “pathetic” and a “bum”.

“The worst Congressman in the long and storied history of the Republican Party is Thomas Massie,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Monday. “He is an obstructionist and a fool. Vote him out of office tomorrow, Tuesday. It will be a great day for America!”

However, Massie appears to have a few advantages that other Republican dissidents lacked.

Over the years, the congressman has built a reputation as a combative, principled libertarian and has gained popularity among right-wing commentators.

His campaign directly raised $5.5m, significantly more than Gallrein’s $3.1m, while also receiving outside support from pro-gun rights and libertarian PACs.

Massie has also been endorsed by some of his Republican colleagues, including Congresswoman Lauren Boebert, an outspoken right-wing lawmaker.

And due to the involvement of pro-Israel groups, Massie’s supporters are arguing that the race is not all about Trump, who remains popular amongst Republican voters.

“Why does Trump hate Massie? Is the congressman a secret liberal? Not at all,” right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson said in his newsletter on Monday.

“Unlike nearly everyone else in the Republican Party, Massie has refused to go along with the White House’s abandonment of the America First principles that got the president elected. He is one of the few honest people in politics. Everyone who cares about our country should root for him.”

A former Philippine Navy warship was sent to the bottom today by the combined effects of maritime strike drills launched by Japanese, Philippine, and U.S. forces in the Luzon Strait, one of the world’s most strategic and tense bodies of water. The maneuvers, which reportedly involved a variety of anti-ship missiles and rocket artillery, were part of the broader Balikatan exercise, which is especially important in the context of rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

Located roughly 50 miles offshore, the target vessel for a live-fire sinking exercise (SINKEX) campaign was the decommissioned Philippine Navy Rizal class patrol corvette, the former BRP Quezon. The ship was originally completed for the U.S. Navy as an Auk class minesweeper during World War II, serving as the USS Vigilance before being transferred to the Philippines and serving in a new role in the late 1960s. The BRP Quezon, which had a standard displacement of 890 tons, was decommissioned in 2021.

The maritime strike (MARSTRIKE) drills were conducted on the island of Luzon, which sits at the northern end of the Philippines, and is the country’s largest and most populous island. Specifically, the live-fire drills took place around the Paoay Sand Dunes, in the coastal region of Ilocos Norte.

The drills began around 10:00 a.m. local time with a U.S. Army M30/31 Guided Multiple-Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) fired as a “probing round,” with the location of the target vessel being confirmed around 10:15 a.m.

The GMLRS artillery rocket is a highly precise, rapid-strike weapon that can attack targets to a distance of around 50 miles, which would put it right at the limit of its range. It is fired from the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) that can launch six guided or unguided 227mm artillery rockets or a single Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile without reloading. GMLRS is not capable of engaging moving targets, so it has limited application in the traditional anti-ship mission set.

In a combined strike, anti-ship missiles were reportedly then launched from a U.S. Marine Corps Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) and from a Philippine Navy C-Star system.

Of these, NMESIS employs an uncrewed variant of the 4×4 Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV), also known as the Remotely Operated Ground Unit Expeditionary-Fires (ROGUE-Fires), on which is mounted a launcher with two ready-to-fire Naval Strike Missiles (NSM). These have a range of around 130 miles and have low-observable features, making them harder for enemy air defenses to detect and engage.

NMESIS is meant to be rapidly deployable and capable of highly dispersed operations in austere areas. As an uncrewed vehicle-launcher combo, small teams of Marines monitor multiple launchers dispersed around an area and move them regularly to keep them from being targeted by the enemy. The system was first deployed in a Balikatan exercise last year, as you can read about here.

While Philippine media reports that the NMESIS, operated by the Hawaii-based 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment, fired a missile during today’s drill, this is refuted by a report from Stars and Stripes. The 3rd MLR is notable in itself, being expressly designed to fight within an enemy’s own littorals, with all the challenges that brings.

Meanwhile, the C-Star is the Philippine Navy’s primary anti-ship missile. Produced by South Korea’s LIG Nex1, a version of this missile is used by the Republic of Korea Navy as the Haeseong. The Philippines uses the C-Star to arm its two Miguel Malvar class and two Jose Rizal class frigates, which are also made in South Korea. Similar to the U.S.-made Harpoon, the C-Star is a turbojet-powered, sea-skimming missile with a range of around 90 miles.

In the drill, the C-Star was likely fired from the Philippine Navy frigates BRP Miguel Malvar and Antonio Luna, both of which are known to be taking part in Balikatan.

These were followed by two rounds fired from a Japanese land-based Type 88 anti-ship missile system, fired for the first time during a Balikatan exercise, and for the first time anywhere outside Japan. The Japanese missiles reportedly struck the hull of the target ship around 10:30 a.m.

JSDF Type 88 missiles fire for the first time in Balikatan 2026 | GMA News

Developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in the 1980s, the Type 88 (also known as the SSM-1) is the primary coastal anti-ship missile system of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, with a range of around 100 miles, although more capable and further-reaching weapons are now in development, as you can read about here.

Interestingly, in a video released of the live-fire event in Ilocos Norte, close protection was being provided to the truck-mounted Type 88 launcher by a Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS), also from the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment. MADIS utilizes the JTLV and distributes different sensors and effectors between individual JLTVs, as you can read more about here. In this kind of scenario, it would be tasked with protecting the coastal missile battery against kamikaze drones and other aerial threats at short ranges.

The vessel sank rapidly, meaning that the Philippine Air Force wasn’t able to deliver more munitions onto the target. FA-50 light combat aircraft and A-29 Super Tucano turboprop close support aircraft had both been prepared to strike the same ship, but were stood down.

Other air assets taking part included a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and an MQ-9 drone.

With the ship sunk or sinking, a coup de grace was provided by a U.S. HIMARS, which fired onto the same coordinates.

Also involved in Balikatan is the Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Charlottetown, although it appears that it didn’t take part in the live-fire event.

According to a Philippine military spokesperson, another round of live-fire drills will take place tomorrow as part of Balikatan, utilizing a stand-by target vessel. This will also allow Philippine Air Force aircraft to take part.

The live-fire drills, conducted under the Balikatan exercise, signaled a notable expansion of Japan’s military role in the region as Tokyo strengthens security partnerships with its allies amid growing tensions with Beijing.

Overall, the live-fire exercise is highly significant due to its proximity to the Chinese mainland and the long range of some of the missiles that have been employed.

The Luzon Strait, into which the various missiles and rockets were fired, sits between Taiwan and the Philippines, spanning about 220 miles at its narrowest point. It serves as a vital shipping route and a highly strategic military corridor, particularly for China’s rapidly expanding naval forces. From this passage, assets stationed in the South China Sea can move into the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific, and back again. This includes China’s growing fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, some of which underpin its second-strike nuclear deterrent.

The strait is also a crucial gateway for the U.S. Navy entering the South China Sea and would likely be a central battleground in any major conflict over Taiwan. Because of its importance, the area is closely monitored for activity both above and below the surface. In the event of war, it would quickly turn into a dense anti-ship missile engagement zone (SMEZ). The live-fire campaign today gave just a small taster of that kind of contingency.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Army test-fired a Tomahawk cruise missile from a Typhon launcher in the central Philippines, successfully hitting a target around 370 miles away in Nueva Ecija.

On this occasion, the Tomahawk missile was supporting ground troops in a night land maneuver exercise led by the 25th Infantry Division in Fort Magsaysay, part of the Balikatan exercise.

The Typhon ground-based missile system can also fire SM-6 multi-purpose missiles, which are used in this application in a quasi-ballistic missile land-attack mode. As for the Tomahawk cruise missile, this provided land attack and anti-ship capabilities. 

As we have discussed before, Typhon’s arrival in the Philippines in 2025 sent a clear signal to Beijing and throughout the region. It is a glimpse of what’s to come as the service works through plans to permanently base these systems in China’s backyard.

Compared to the longer-range Typhon, which is deployed further from the Luzon Strait, for the Balikatan exercise, the shorter-range NMESIS and Type 88 anti-ship missiles are pushed much closer to the zone in which their likely wartime targets would be found. As we have explored in the past, anti-ship missiles of this kind, and especially NMESIS, can also be deployed deeper into the strait, making use of smaller Philippine islands, like the Batanes island chain, although that ratchets up their exposure to counterstrikes considerably.

For both these kinds of missiles, their survival would rely upon the dispersal of launchers and other vehicles, as well as regularly moving them around to help prevent them from being targeted by the enemy. Of course, with the uncrewed NMESIS, this is designed from the ground up to not put personnel in harm’s way. All of this kind of doctrine is central to the Marines’ Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) strategy, which is now a core tenet of how it would fight in the Pacific.

Already, China has voiced its displeasure at the deployment of the U.S. Army’s Typhon system to the Philippines. What is now becoming a regular appearance of NMESIS, backed up by other highly mobile strike systems, including allied anti-ship missiles, within reach of the Luzon Strait, will undoubtedly trigger similar concerns in Beijing. However, the live-fire sinking exercise today underscores how critical this waterway is to the U.S. military and its allies in the region, just as it is to China. Having more varied and more mobile anti-shipping assets in the northern Philippines complicates targeting for China, while extending the capabilities of the anti-access strategy of the U.S. military and its allies in the Luzon Strait, should a conflict break out.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com