sugar

A potentially very strong El Niño is emerging as a major risk for global agricultural markets, threatening to disrupt rainfall, raise temperatures and expose some of the world’s most important tropical crops to severe weather stress.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now sees a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026 to 2027. For commodity markets, the concern is not simply that El Niño causes drought. Its effects vary sharply by region, meaning excessive rainfall in one major producing country can occur alongside extreme dryness in another.

That makes the phenomenon particularly important for soft commodities such as cocoa, coffee and sugar, whose production is concentrated in climate sensitive tropical regions.

Why El Niño matters for commodity markets

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific become unusually warm as trade winds weaken. The pattern generally lasts between nine and 12 months and can alter global temperature and rainfall patterns.

For farmers, the problem is timing. Crops can be damaged not only by drought but also by excessive rainfall, heat, fungal disease and disrupted flowering or harvesting cycles.

This year’s potential El Niño also arrives at an unusually difficult moment for agricultural producers. Farmers are already dealing with higher fertiliser and diesel costs linked to the U.S. Israeli war on Iran. Another major weather shock could therefore amplify existing production pressures.

Historically, strong El Niño episodes have been associated with substantial increases in soft commodity prices. But the effects differ considerably between crops.

Cocoa faces one of the clearest risks

Cocoa appears particularly vulnerable because production is heavily concentrated in a relatively small number of countries.

Ivory Coast and Ghana together account for roughly half of global cocoa production, while Ecuador is the third largest producer. All three can experience significant El Niño related weather disruptions.

Every strong El Niño over the past 55 years has reduced cocoa output, according to WisdomTree.

The previous El Niño illustrates why the relationship is more complicated than simply associating the phenomenon with drought. During the initial phase of the 2023 to 2024 event, West Africa experienced unusually heavy rainfall. Excess moisture contributed to fungal disease affecting cocoa trees.

Conditions subsequently shifted toward intense heat and unusually dry Harmattan winds. Trees weakened by disease struggled to flower, further damaging production.

That sequence demonstrates the real danger for cocoa: El Niño can produce multiple weather shocks during the same crop cycle.

The consequences can quickly reach global consumers. Cocoa prices nearly tripled in 2024 after the West African harvest failed, eventually exceeding $12,000 per metric ton.

A very strong El Niño could therefore revive fears of another supply deficit if weather conditions deteriorate across major growing regions.

Coffee faces a divided outlook

Coffee presents a more complicated picture because the world’s two major varieties are concentrated in different regions.

Robusta coffee is particularly exposed to El Niño because Vietnam and Indonesia, which together account for about half of global robusta production, typically experience higher temperatures and reduced rainfall under the weather pattern.

The timing is especially important. Dry conditions can hit these countries during crop development, with the consequences becoming visible during harvesting later in the year.

Citi analysts warned that dryness in Vietnam and Indonesia could significantly reduce robusta yields.

Arabica coffee presents a different picture.

Brazil, responsible for nearly half of global arabica production, can initially benefit from warmer conditions because they reduce the risk of damaging winter frosts.

But that advantage could prove temporary. El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions to Brazilian coffee growing regions later in the year, when the next crop is developing.

That creates the possibility of a delayed supply shock in 2027.

Sugar could be the exception

Sugar demonstrates why El Niño does not automatically translate into a bullish commodity market.

Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, can experience heavier rainfall during the second half of the year. Excessive rain can disrupt harvesting and affect sugar quality.

India and Thailand face the opposite problem. El Niño generally reduces rainfall during the summer monsoon, creating additional pressure on production.

India is already expecting its lowest monsoon rainfall in 11 years, at around 90% of the long-term average. Hedgepoint estimates that even a moderate El Niño could reduce Indian sugar production by around 1 million metric tons.

Yet there is an important counterweight.

El Niño’s wetter conditions in Brazil could ultimately support the country’s following sugar crop. Since Brazil accounts for roughly half of global sugar exports, stronger Brazilian production could offset losses elsewhere.

That means sugar may not experience the same sustained price pressure as cocoa or robusta coffee.

The bigger problem is climate uncertainty

The most important market implication is not simply whether El Niño becomes “very strong.” It is where its effects materialise and when.

Agricultural markets operate on highly specific growing cycles. Rain arriving at the wrong stage can be just as damaging as drought. Excessive rainfall can create disease, while heat can interfere with flowering and crop development.

Climate change further complicates the picture.

The relationship between El Niño and agricultural weather is becoming harder to interpret because rising global temperatures can intensify the consequences of existing climate patterns. A weather event that might previously have produced manageable stress can now occur against a much hotter baseline.

This means commodity traders increasingly have to price not just the probability of El Niño, but the interaction between El Niño, climate change and already strained agricultural supply chains.

What could happen to prices?

The clearest risk is concentrated in cocoa and robusta coffee, where production is particularly exposed to adverse conditions in major growing countries.

Cocoa has perhaps the greatest vulnerability because West Africa dominates global supply and has already experienced serious weather related production problems. Another major disruption could quickly tighten inventories and push prices higher.

Robusta coffee faces a similar risk if drought develops across Vietnam and Indonesia.

Sugar is more balanced. Production losses in India and Thailand could be partly or potentially substantially offset by improved Brazilian conditions for the following crop.

The broader lesson is that El Niño is not a uniform commodity shock. It redistributes weather risks across producing regions, creating winners and losers within the same market.

Why consumers should care

The effects will ultimately extend beyond commodity exchanges.

Higher cocoa prices can increase chocolate production costs. Coffee shortages can raise prices for roasters and consumers, while sugar disruptions can affect everything from beverages to processed foods.

And because agricultural markets are interconnected, a weather shock in one producing region can encourage buyers to compete more aggressively for supplies elsewhere.

The potential super El Niño therefore arrives at a particularly sensitive moment for global food markets.

If forecasts prove correct, the next several months could test whether commodity markets have adequately priced the risks of increasingly volatile weather.

The real threat is not El Niño alone. It is El Niño hitting an agricultural system already under pressure from rising costs, concentrated production and a changing climate.

With information from Reuters.

LORD Alan Sugar has publicly hit out at a credit card company for allegedly refusing to increase his spend limit.

It comes despite the businessman’s reported £1.138 billion net worth and his reputation as a entrepreneurial tycoon.

Taking to his X account on Monday, the billionaire – who has no qualms about speaking his mind – slammed card issuer American Express as he claimed they haven’t allowed him to borrow more money on his credit card.

He wrote: “I spent a hour on the phone with American Express. I was passed to 4 different people.”

“I was asking for an increase in my credit limit.

“Finally I got to speak to a person in the UK at Brighton who knew who I was and my financial status. However my request was refused due to their system.”

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In the replies, several users were confused as to why Lord Sugar – who fronts BBC show The Apprentice – would need more money on his credit card.

One wrote: “I’m not sure why anyone worth a billion pounds needs a credit card”.

Another joked: “I have a spare 20 quid I can lend you if you’re struggling to see the month out? Just let me know.”

Responding to users questioning him, Lord Sugar explained he needs a credit card ‘to buy things’ as he ‘doesn’t carry bags of cash’.

He wrote in one response: “DO PRACTICE BEING AN IDIOT. I DON’T WALK AROUND WITH BAGS FULL OF CASH. I NEED A CREDIT CARD TO BUY THINGS .”

“I AM NOT MOANING JUST EXPOSING WHAT A BUNCH OF IDIOTS AMEX ARE,” he said in another tweet.

The Sun has reached out to American Express for comment.

The famous businessman began building his fortune by founding consumer electronics company Amstrad.

He now has a portfolio of companies under his umbrella, as well as his booming TV career on the BBC.

July 13 (UPI) — Scientists have discovered erythrulose, a type of sugar also found in raspberries, in a gas cloud near the center of the Milky Way, the galaxy that also includes our solar system.

This is the first time that researchers have discovered this sugar outside our solar system, although they have found other sugars, including ribose and glucose, in meteorites and asteroids. The study was published Monday in the journal Nature Astronomy.

Along with water and carbon, sugars are a key ingredient in life as we know it. They help to provide energy and serve other important purposes, researchers said.

“We were able to achieve this detection thanks to the combination of exceptionally sensitive observations, extensive frequency coverage and highly accurate laboratory spectroscopic data,” said Dr. Izaskun Jiménez-Serra, study co-author and staff researcher at the Spanish National Research Council. “In addition, our astronomical target is one of the richest chemical inventories in the galaxy, which enhances the probabilities of detection.”

Jiménez-Serra said erythrulose is “particularly relevant for the field of origins of life.”

Erythrulose is made up of four carbon atoms. It was confirmed by use of the Yebes 40-meter telescope and IRAM 30-meter telescopes in Spain, the study said.

The discovery is notable in part because it shows researchers that erythrulose could be found in the interstellar medium before finding its way into rocky planets such as Earth when they first formed, rather than later developing on the young planet. Lab experiments had shown that not enough of the sugar could have formed on pre-life Earth.

“The findings suggest that erythrulose can be made from simpler molecules on dust grains in space, and may then become part of more complex chemical systems,” researchers said.

Erythrulose is important because it changes the makeup of threose, another sugar, which in turn may be part of the origin of the nucleic acids that became RNA and DNA.

July 13 (UPI) — Mexico announced the United States will begin to restore Mexican sugar’s access to its market, a measure that could significantly increase exports during the 2026-2027 season and boost income for about 170,000 sugarcane producers.

Mexico’s presidency said in a statement released Friday that the measure is the result of talks with U.S. authorities led by President Claudia Sheinbaum since November 2025.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated the country will need to import up to 1,152,000 tons of Mexican sugar during the 2026-2027 marketing year, an amount 512% higher than the estimate for the current marketing year, according to the statement.

The estimate appears in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on July 10, the Mexican government said.

The presidency said the new conditions could generate a potential increase of up to 4.76 billion pesos, about $272 million, in the price paid by the sugar industry to about 170,000 Mexican sugarcane producers.

The talks that led to the announcement began in November 2025 during a visit by U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to Sheinbaum, the statement said.

The Mexican government said the outcome demonstrates that “through dialogue it is possible to build important agreements” benefiting agricultural producers and food consumers in both countries.

Sugar trade between Mexico and the United States has been regulated since late 2014 under the so-called suspension agreements, according to background information published by the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System.

In June 2017, the governments of both countries reached an agreement in principle that reduced the share of refined Mexican sugar to 30% of total imports from the previous 53% limit, while increasing the share of raw sugar, the regional organization reported.

The U.S. sugar industry initially refused to support that agreement. Then-Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Mexico had accepted nearly all of the requests made by the industry, but U.S. producers still did not support the proposed terms.

U.S. refiners argued that high-quality Mexican raw sugar was reaching consumers directly instead of passing through their plants, according to the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System.

The dispute involved a coalition of U.S. sugarcane and sugar beet producers, as well as ASR Group, maker of Domino Sugar, and Imperial Sugar.

ASR Group and Imperial Sugar said at the time that the 2014 agreement did not provide sufficient supplies for their refining operations and had asked the U.S. government to end the pact, the regional organization reported.

For whatever reason, I never reviewed the first season of “Sugar,” which I’d stopped watching before its late-season big reveal — the detective (Colin Farrell as John Sugar) is an alien. Had that happened earlier in the story I might have hung on, but strictly as a production, I’d found its brand of neo-noir to be mannered, gimmicky, obvious, overdirected (by Fernando Meirelles, the Brazilian director of the fine “City of Men”) and, as you may have surmised, off-putting.

This is by way of announcing that the second season arrives Friday on Apple TV and that I like it very much. The stylistic eccentricities have been dialed back, including the use of old Hollywood film clips to reflect the action and possibly the thoughts of its main character, a cinephile from space, who is both practicing and enacting the work of a private detective. He reads American Cinematographer; he takes the Paramount studio tour, then takes it again.

One might navigate the new season without having watched the first, though at least reading an online synopsis. Sam Catlin (“Preacher”) has taken over as showrunner from series creator Mark Protosevich; the tone is lighter, the plot less perverse. Under new director of photography Marshall Adams, the camerawork, formerly too quirky by half — a mishmash of lenses and film stocks and canted angles — has settled down, as has the editing, enhancing the story by letting it breathe and staying out of the way of Farrell’s singular performance — the series’ distinguishing feature and warm heart.

For all his influences, Det. Sugar is the one character who can’t easily be traced back to an earlier model. As detectives go, he’s unusually sweet, optimistic, diplomatic, willing to give a villain a way out, closer to the Man Who Fell to Earth than to Sam Spade. He loves animals, and they love him.

Farrell, who also narrates in a soft voice, often wears a look of shy incomprehension, as if a beat behind in translating the world around him, a stranger in a strange land.

Using his mild telekinetic powers, Det. John Sugar (Colin Farrell) makes a tennis ball float in the air, to the delight of some dogs in “Sugar.”

(Apple TV)

As aliens go, he is also something of a lightweight, demonstrating some mild telekinetic abilities (making a tennis ball float to entertain a pack of dogs, stirring the ice cubes in his drink) and the ability to speak any language, which underscores his empathetic nature. He makes friends with cab drivers, tour guides and security guards; as an “immigrant,” he appreciates immigrants. He’ll do the dishes for a woman too grief-stricken to attend to them, explain to a man who hates his own name that it’s a reference to Bogart’s character in “Casablanca” and a sign of his mother’s love. He can drink as much alcohol as he likes — his metabolism keeps him from getting drunk — which makes him indefatigable company in a bar, but he is horribly allergic to cinnamon. Remember that, if you’re ever forced to defend yourself from an ET.

Where classic noir detectives tend to be middle-class sorts a job or two ahead of losing their office, Sugar has a lot of money, whether saved up from earlier high-priced cases — his Season 1 client is a rich old man ripped from “The Big Sleep” — or piped down from space. He wears expensive suits, lives in a bungalow in a high-end Los Angeles hotel but also buys a house in the Hollywood Hills because its view allows him to spy on a dodgy character from Season 1; and drives a Nassau Blue 1966 convertible Corvette that he blithely parks in bad neighborhoods with the top down. When the car actually is stolen in this season’s opening episode, it brings him into contact with Val (Sasha Calle, Supergirl in “The Flash” movie), a spunky, punky petty criminal who negotiates its return and whom Sugar makes his assistant; I wouldn’t say Calle is underused, but I would have liked to see more of her.

Sugar came to Earth as part of a group of “thousands,” mixing among humans incognito just to observe them, for benign alien reasons, like Starship Enterprise on its five-year mission. (We get a flashback to Sugar’s first days on Earth, before he acquired the suits and the car and settled on a profession.) At the end of Season 1, their cover being blown, and humans being famously weird when it comes to extraterrestrials — you’ve seen the movies — they return home en masse, except for Sugar. He’s still working a missing persons case of his own, looking for his sister, hopefully alive, somewhere on the planet. And he’s becoming more of an Earthman — the dangers of assimilation are a specific Season 1 plot point. On top of that, like a lot of people, he just loves L.A.

Laura Donnelly as flirtatious Charlotte in “Sugar.”

(Jason LaVeris / Apple TV)

And then there’s Charlotte (Laura Donnelly), whom he meets in the bar of his hotel; it doesn’t take a degree in postwar genre fiction to recognize that there may be something fishy, perhaps “fatale,” about her. But like Sugar, we’re content to put that question off as long as possible, in the hopes that maybe this relationship will be as uncomplicated as we’d like it to be, and a tonic for Sugar’s loneliness. (He no longer has his dog, even.) He regularly gets on the subspace shortwave looking for any others of his kind left on Earth.

The new season will get around to that question, though the alien and earthly plot lines are kept on separate tracks. Most of the time “Sugar” functions as a straightforward compelling detective story, as the protagonist hunts for Ji Moon (Raymond Lee), the missing junkie brother of Danny Moon (Jin Ha), a talented young Korean American prizefighter on the first rung of the ladder to success. (Sugar is working pro bono, not needing the money but very much needing something to do.) It brings him into the orbit of drug dealers and crooked police officers and through an array of Southland locations, including the Beverly Center — finally, a good use for that place — Koreatown, the Vista Theater and the Huntington Gardens.

While there’s nothing particularly novel about that plot, it pulls you along, and the series as a whole is orchestrated to make one care about the characters and worry over their fates. Vivid minor characters — there are pro turns from Shea Whigham, Laura San Giacomo and Mireille Enos — make the story live. All in all, a good meal that leaves no bitter aftertaste.