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Who could succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to lead Iran? | Explainer News

The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, in the US-Israeli air attacks has thrust Tehran to a pivotal crossroads as the clergy looks to pick the late ayatollah’s successor.

With Iran on a war footing, several senior leaders close to Khamenei were killed in the attack as well, including his top security adviser Ali Shamkani and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief Mohammad Pakpour.

Tehran has vowed to avenge the killing of Khamenei. The US President Donald Trump warned against the retaliatory attacks and suggested that the strikes on Iran would continue.

The US-Israeli attacks hit Iran on Saturday, when Tehran’s top diplomats were waiting for the next round of talks on upcoming Monday to lock a deal with Trump, including laying down nuclear ambitions, and avoiding an armed conflict.

After 36 years in power, the late ayatollah’s killing has left Iran’s top clerics to prepare for the transfer of power to the next Supreme Leader. That’s something that they have only done once before, four decades ago.

So, who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? And how will he be chosen?

TEHRAN, IRAN - MARCH 1: A woman wails and holds a poster as thousands of people gather in Enghelab Square for a pro-government demonstration after Iranian state media confirmed the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was confirmed killed after the United States and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran on February 28. Iran retaliated by firing waves of missiles and drones at Israel, and targeting U.S. allies in the region. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
A woman wails and holds a poster as thousands of people gather in Enghelab Square for a pro-government demonstration after Iranian state media confirmed the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images) (Getty)

How is the Supreme Leader selected?

Iran’s Supreme Leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body elected by the public every eight years.

Candidates who run for the Assembly must first be vetted and approved by the Guardian Council, a powerful oversight body whose members are partly appointed by the Supreme Leader himself.

When the position becomes vacant, due to death or resignation, the Assembly of Experts convenes to choose a successor. A simple majority is sufficient to appoint the new Supreme Leader.

As per Iran’s constitution, the candidate must be a senior jurist with deep knowledge of Shi’a jurisprudence, as well as qualities such as political judgment, courage, and administrative capability.

Earlier, there had been only one other transfer of power in the office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, when Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Revolution, died at age 86 in 1989.

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Emergency personnel stand at the site of an Iranian missile strike on a residential building, after Iran launched missile barrages following attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Saturday, in Tel Aviv, Israel March 1, 2026. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun (Reuters)

What happens in Iran during a leadership vacuum?

Article 111 of Iran’s constitution mandates that a temporary council handle duties until a new supreme leader is elected.

That council will have: President Masoud Pezeshkian, Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and a cleric from the Guardian Council, according to Iranian media.

They will lead the country until the assembly formally picks the new supreme leader.

Iran’s security chief and a close confidante of the late Khamenei, Ali Larijani, said on Sunday that the transition process is underway.

Luciano Zaccara, a research associate professor in Gulf Politics at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera that Iran’s political system has been prepared for the current situation, knowing that Khamenei’s assassination was a real possibility.

“Trump wants to get the best deal possible, but the method he’s using to get that deal is to annihilate or destroy as much as he can,” Zaccara said. “This is the way to impose conditions, not to negotiate anything. Trump wants a surrender of the regime, not a change.”

The late Ayatollah made sure to put in a structure, he added, to avoid a vacuum of power and kept replacements for all the officials eliminated in the last few months ready. “The structures remain, the line of power [and] the line of command remain in place,” Zaccara told Al Jazeera.

INTERACTIVE-Iran’s government structure-jan 12, 2026 2-EDIT-1768237547
(Al Jazeera)

What is the Supreme Leader of Iran?

The Supreme Leader is the top position in the Islamic Republic’s political and religious hierarchy.

He is essentially the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the final word in the country – and appoints key judicial, military, and media officials.

He also leads the mighty Revolutionary Guard, a paramilitary force that leads the so-called Axis of Resistance.

Here are the contenders for the top job in Tehran

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Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, visits Hezbollah’s office in Tehran, Iran, October 1, 2024. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.

Mojtaba Khamenei

Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is among the top contenders to succeed his father in Iran.

He is known to wield significant influence among the administrators and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the most powerful military body.

However, Khamenei’s lineage is also among the biggest barriers he faces.

Khamenei was reportedly opposed to the father-to-son succession. It is frowned upon in Iran, particularly after the US-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi monarchy was toppled in 1979.

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Pope Francis is shown a gift as he receives Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, president of Islamic Seminaries of Iran, and entourage in a private audience at the Vatican May 30, 2022. Vatican Media/Handout via REUTERS

Alireza Arafi

Arafi, a 67-year-old cleric, is an influential figure in the Islamic Republic’s religious establishment, but not a widely accepted political actor.

He serves as the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for overseeing the selection of the Supreme Leader, and has been a member of the Guardian Council, which vets election candidates and laws passed by parliament.

Arafi was appointed as ⁠the jurist member of ⁠Iran’s Leadership Council, the body tasked with fulfilling the ‌Supreme Leader’s role until the Assembly of Experts elects a new leader, Iran’s state media reported on Sunday.

Arafi is also the Friday prayer leader of Qom — Iran’s most important religious center — and heads the country’s seminary system, overseeing clerical education nationwide.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri

Mirbagheri is an ultra-hardline clerical voice in the establishment and a member of the Assembly of Experts.

He is widely known for his unrelenting anti-Western worldview — and currently heads the Islamic Sciences Academy in the northern city of Qom.

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei

Mohseni-Ejei is a senior Iranian cleric and currently heads the judiciary of the Islamic Republic, appointed to the role in July 2021 by the late Khamenei.

He previously served as Minister of Intelligence from 2005 to 2009 and later as Prosecutor-General and First Deputy Chief Justice. He is regarded as a hardline figure aligned with the conservative wing of the regime.

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Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s grandson, Hassan Khomeini stands next to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the 36th anniversary of the death of the leader of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, at Khomeini’s shrine in southern Tehran, Iran June 4, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

Hassan Khomeini

Khomeini, 54, is among the most discussed names in succession talks for the next Supreme Leader.

He is the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and also the custodian of his grandfather’s mausoleum in Tehran.

While he has not held a public office, Khomeini is a reformist figure known for his rather moderate views on public life and policy. He attempted to run for the Assembly of Experts in 2016, but the vetting council disqualified him.

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What these Democrats seeking to succeed Newsom would do differently

Matt Mahan, the mayor of San José and latest entrant into the jam-packed race for California governor, has in recent years raised his profile outside his Silicon Valley-area city by doing something most other elected Democrats would never: publicly criticize Gov. Gavin Newsom.

With the primary election almost four months away, candidates have already been busy trying to convince Californians that they can lead the state through its biggest challenges, including what they might do differently than Newsom on homelessness, crime and the high cost of living.

Democratic hopefuls have so far done so subtly, without taking direct shots at Newsom.

Until Mahan entered the race.

The 43-year-old-mayor began carving a moderate path in 2024, when he broke with Newsom and other Democrats to back Proposition 36, which increased penalties for theft and crimes involving fentanyl. Despite opposition from Newsom and legislative leaders, voters overwhelmingly approved it.

Mahan has also given mixed reviews to the Newsom administration’s approach to homelessness; he has praised efforts to make it easier for cities to clear homeless encampments but criticized inconsistent funding from the state to help local governments build interim housing.

Although most Democrats running to replace Newsom have praised his fiery opposition to President Trump and the Republican-led Congress, including the governor’s outlandish online trolling of Trump and his allies, Mahan was not impressed.

“Instead of spending so much energy attacking his opponents, the governor and his team should be addressing the high cost of energy, helping hard-pressed families make ends meet and keeping them and their employers from fleeing our state,” Mahan wrote last summer in a piece for the San Francisco Standard.

Mahan told reporters last week that his disagreements with Newsom are “rooted in substance” and praised the governor for muscling through major reforms to the California Environmental Quality Act and behavioral health treatment.

“I see the job of the next governor” as “building on many of the initiatives [Newsom] has championed,” he said, adding he would use those new reforms to build more housing and treatment facilities for people struggling with addiction and mental illness.

Newsom has routinely won approval from the state’s Democratic base, as well as respect and deference from its elected leaders, and his notoriety as a top foe of Trump continues to rise. Because the perch of California governor provides Democrats with an effective cudgel against the Republican administration, attacking Newsom could easily backfire in this left-leaning state.

“It’s a very delicate balancing act” to campaign to replace a leader of one’s own party, said Democratic strategist Garry South, who has worked on four California gubernatorial campaigns.

“The traditional way to do it is to try to project that you will build on things that the incumbent has done: programs they started, successes they’ve had,” he said.

South, who ran Newsom’s first, short-lived, campaign for governor in 2009, took issue with Mahan’s criticisms of the governor.

“To stick it to the incumbent of your own party might be OK if that person is viewed as a failure. … The fact is, Newsom is not unpopular. This guy’s had four massive victories in California,” he said, listing Newsom’s two elections in 2018 and 2022, defeating a recall in 2021 and overwhelmingly passing Proposition 50 last year.

Like Mahan, billionaire venture-capitalist-turned-environmentalist Tom Steyer has cast himself as an outsider of California’s Democratic establishment. Though he has so far avoided disparaging anyone directly, Steyer dinged “Sacramento politicians [who] are afraid to change this system” when he launched his campaign in November.

Early on in his campaign, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa indicated he would backtrack on Newsom’s strict oil drilling limits and what he calls heavy-handed regulations, which the industry has blamed for the state’s high gas prices.

A Phillips 66 refinery shut down last fall and a Valero refinery in Northern California plans to idle by the end of April, raising concerns that prices in the state’s isolated fuels market could climb even higher.

Villaraigosa previously told The Times he is “not fighting for refineries” but “for the people who pay for gas in this state.”

The former mayor took a more aggressive approach in the California’s governor’s race in 2018, when Villaraigosa accused Newsom of selling “snake oil” with his support for single-payer healthcare in order to win over the nurses union and progressives. Villaraigosa, who ran on a moderate platform, finished in a distant third place in the primary, and Newsom went on to win two terms as governor.

Former Rep. Katie Porter has gone in a more progressive direction on oil. When asked in October to name a policy arena in which she would act differently than Newsom, Porter said she would not have signed recent legislation to allow 2,000 new oil wells in Kern County.

“Drilling new wells is locking us into 100-plus years of energy of the past,” she said. “I absolutely know that we need our refineries to stay open. … But I’m concerned about the environmental consequences, the environmental justice consequences, the shortened lifespan and pollution that we see in some of our fossil fuel-producing places.”

While Newsom and most other candidates for governor have raised concerns about a proposed statewide ballot measure to tax the assets of billionaires, primarily to raise billions of dollars in revenue to blunt the impact of federal healthcare cuts, Tony Thurmond, the state superintendent of public instruction, has embraced the idea.

Even before the potential ballot measure drove some billionaires into leaving the state, Thurmond said that if elected, he would introduce a tax “solely on megamillionaires and billionaires to hire more teachers, healthcare workers, firefighters, construction workers and social workers,” who would earn “decent middle-class wages” to bolster the state’s economy.

Thurmond has also repeatedly said he would pursue single-payer healthcare in California, a promise Newsom also campaigned on before his first term but did not fully deliver.

Betty Yee, a former state controller and budget director, has pitched herself as the most qualified candidate to fix California’s ongoing budget deficits, and took swipes at accounting tricks Newsom and other governors have used in the past.

Newsom and state lawmakers have faced criticism for using short-term tactics like deferred spending and internal borrowing to fill budget shortfalls while ignoring the larger issue: The state regularly spends more money than it brings in.

“No more gimmicks. We can’t kick the can down the road anymore,” Yee said during a recent interview with KTLA. She said she would implement “spending cuts — not like DOGE” and explore “corporations and upper-income earners” potentially paying more tax revenue.

Newsom, aware that he’s entering lame-duck status, has jokingly called himself “a milk carton with a sell-by date” and admitted “these questions about who’s next and all that are uncomfortable.”

Asked specifically about Mahan’s criticisms, Newsom on Thursday declined to fuel any supposed rivalry with the San José mayor.

“I don’t know enough about him,” the governor said. “I wish him good luck.”

Times staff writer Taryn Luna contributed to this report.

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