Tom Cruise is one of the bankable stars in Hollywood. But his pull may not be enough to lift his upcoming film “Digger” from a likely hard fall at the box office this weekend.
That would be unwelcome news for Warner Bros., whose movies have largely struggled to connect with audiences this year, in contrast to 2025, when the studio ran up a string of hits such as “Sinners” and “Weapons.”
All of this comes as the studio braces for an uncertain future with Paramount Skydance’s $111-billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery set to close on Tuesday.
“No single film is going to capsize the boat,” said Stephen Galloway, dean of the Dodge College of Film and Media Arts at Chapman University. “However, it’s coming at a precarious time because it follows a series of less-than-successful releases at the very moment when the Warner Bros.- Paramount deal has been greenlit, and everybody — no matter how high up — is terrified for his or her job.”
Matching the success of the 2025 film slate was always going to be a tall order, particularly when so many of Warner Bros.’ movies that year overperformed.
So far this year, the studio’s domestic box office haul is $437.7 million, representing about 5.6% of the total theatrical revenue in the U.S. and Canada, according to Rentrak data.
Last year, Warner Bros.’ total at this time was $1.8 billion, aided by back-to-back successes starting with “A Minecraft Movie,” which went on to become the highest-grossing movie at the domestic box office during that calendar year.
The studio currently does not have any film in the top 20 of domestic box office earners this year, which includes some holdovers from 2025, with Emerald Fennell’s adaptation of “Wuthering Heights” ranking at 21 with $84 million. Bets on films like Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Bride!” cratered, while DC Studios’ “Supergirl” misfired.
“Digger” is unlikely to turn things around.
The satire from director Alejandro González Iñárritu about an impending climate change apocalypse has divided critics, yielding very mixed reviews. Tracking predictions for the film’s debut have steadily trended downward and settled between $15 million and $19 million.
That would be a major miss, given the film’s production budget was about $125 million (not counting marketing costs).
“Digger” faces several hurdles. For one, the film has a major twist, which complicates its marketing and makes it difficult to tell audiences what it’s about.
Then there’s Cruise’s nearly unrecognizable performance as Digger Rockwell, an eccentric oil tycoon whose drilling operations have led to the unfolding climate disaster. Clad in prosthetics with a head full of graying hair, Cruise is far from his usual stunts-heavy, bravado-filled roles, which could make his typical audience less likely to come out to theaters, analysts said.
“It has a lot of question marks,” said David A. Gross, who writes the movie industry newsletter FranchiseRe. “It doesn’t look like it’s heading for financial success.”
The film will have value to Warner Bros. beyond its theatrical reception. “Digger” probably will also make money through ancillary revenue streams such as premium video on demand and streaming, industry experts said. And if Cruise wins his much-coveted Oscar for his role as Digger, that is also a plus, Galloway said.
Beyond the fate of “Digger,” Warner Bros.’ theatrical business will be of prime importance to the combined Paramount-Warner company.
Last year, Warner’s studio business, which includes both film and television production, brought in $12.6 billion in revenue. This year, it’s projected to generate $11.1 billion, according to market expectations. On a positive note, Warner Bros. still has its animated “The Cat in the Hat” film releasing in November and the popular “Dune: Part Three” at the end of the year.
The prospects for Warner Bros. should improve next year, when the film and TV studios are expected to amass $11.7 billion in revenue, driven by strong titles including the sequel to “Minecraft” and a new “Lord of the Rings” movie, according to Bernstein research.
Aside from theatrical revenue, Warner Bros.’ film and TV properties have been key drivers of business to HBO Max and will also provide valuable content to Paramount+, particularly as the linear cable networks continue to decline.
“I would argue the studios are the very reason Paramount Skydance is buying Warner Bros.,” said Laurent Yoon, senior analyst at Bernstein. “Everything starts with the studios.”
The combined company is also legally required to release at least 30 films a year as part of a settlement agreement over antitrust claims with 12 state attorneys general, including California’s Rob Bonta. Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison has previously said the two studios would each release 15 films a year.
But the type of content the studios release could change after the merger is completed. Under film chiefs Pam Abdy and Mike De Luca, Warner Bros. developed a reputation for auteur-driven, original stories, particularly after the success of the 2025 slate. Ellison’s slate has trended toward blockbuster fare.
The combined company will also face a massive debt load of more than $80 billion after the merger closes, meaning there may be greater pressure for future films to be hits.
“Ellison is primarily in the business of delivering blockbusters,” Galloway said. “That’s going to be even more important as he tries to right the ship of his debt.”
