A major crisis is unfolding in Moldova, where Russia is using energy as a political weapon to influence the outcome of the autumn parliamentary elections. The first salvo came on Jan. 1, as Moscow halted the gas deliveries that had long provided low-cost electricity. Although Russia has since resumed gas flows to the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria, the rest of Moldova has been left to grapple with soaring prices, growing public discontent, and rising pressure ahead of a crucial vote. The goal, quite clearly, is to derail the country’s European path and tip it back into Moscow’s orbit.
As is typical in the course of its geopolitical skullduggeries, Vladimir Putin’s regime has deployed disinformation, distractions, and complicated moves aimed at contriving a version of plausible deniability.
A dangerous dependency on Russia
Historically, Moldova has depended on Russian gas via a complex mechanism involving the separatist region, where a large power plant generated electricity for the rest of the country. But on Jan. 1, 2025, both Moldova proper and the separatist enclave were plunged into an energy crisis after Russian gas supplies were halted following the expiration of a transit agreement with Ukraine.
It was actually Kyiv, engaged in full-scale war with Russia, that declined to renew the longstanding deal that allowed Russian gas to flow westward through its territory—but the move was telegraphed for many months, and alternatives existed.
Mainly, Russia could have easily rerouted gas to Transnistria via the TurkStream and Trans-Balkan pipelines, which run through Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania. But it declined to do so, even as households and businesses in Moldova faced skyrocketing prices, and Transnistria itself remained without gas. Russia justified this by accusing Moldova of owing $709 million in unpaid gas bills — a claim that has been thoroughly debunked: An independent international audit commissioned in 2023 found the true amount owed by the Moldovan government to Gazprom was just $8.6 million.
In early February, the European Union stepped in to avert a humanitarian emergency. It provided €20 million in emergency aid to subsidize gas deliveries to Transnistria for 10 days — from February 1 to February 10 — enabling the region to restart electricity production for Moldova proper. This was from arranged external deliveries, supported through EU subsidies.
The EU then offered to extend this arrangement through mid-April with a larger €60 million package. But Transnistrian authorities rejected the offer, reportedly objecting to conditions that would have required greater transparency and price alignment with EU standards. Some analysts believe the refusal reflected a desire to maintain dependency on Moscow rather than risk deeper integration with the West. Others simply have concluded Moscow was calling the shots.
Indeed, by mid-February, Russia resumed gas supplies to Transnistria. Deliveries came through the expected detour involving the Black Sea, Turkey, and the Balkans. But it is no longer reaching Moldova—ostensibly by a decision of the separatists.
Moldova’s pro-European government, led by President Maia Sandu, is convinced these maneuvers amount to a deliberate attempt to punish its Western, pro-EU tilt and sway the upcoming September parliamentary elections toward pro-Russian opposition parties. In response, Moldova accelerated diversification efforts, sourcing electricity and natural gas from Romania and other EU partners—at far higher prices than before.
Russia is, of course, under no obligation to provide anyone with gas. But the timing of its move is no coincidence, and the impact has been staggering: In Moldova proper, gas prices are up 24%, electricity 75%, and heating bills 40%. Because of downstream effects, overall inflation is expected to exceed 30%, creating severe economic distress just months before the vote.
The energy crisis triggered a sharp spike in inflation in Moldova. In January 2025, the annual inflation rate jumped to 9.1% compared to a year earlier, up from 7.0% in December 2024, marking the steepest increase in recent months. This surge was largely driven by significant hikes in tariffs for heating, gas, and electricity, as well as rising prices for food and medicine.
The result is a textbook case of Russia’s energy leverage at work: create pain for adversaries, reward loyal proxies, and manipulate regional infrastructure to achieve geopolitical goals. In this instance, to erode trust in Moldova’s leadership and swing the election. If the pro-Russian opposition were to win the election, the result will be a global shock because in the middle of the Ukraine war, a small but strategically consequential European country will have fallen, seemingly voluntarily, back into the Kremlin orbit.
The episode underlines the need for a longer-term strategy: one that shores up Moldova, counters Russia’s manipulation, and keeps this EU-candidate country on track.
Why Moldova Matters
If Moldova is pulled back into Russia’s orbit, the consequences will ripple far beyond its borders. It would deal a serious blow to Ukraine, whose EU accession is closely tied to Moldova’s. A pro-Kremlin government in Chișinău could legitimize and make permanent the Russian military presence in Transnistria, which has been in place for decades, even though Moldova’s government has considered this illegal.
A move in this direction would further destabilize NATO’s eastern flank and threaten Romania, Poland, and the entire Black Sea region. Worse still, inviting Russian troops into Moldova proper itself would undermine Moldovan sovereignty and European security.
Success in Moldova would also validate this model of energy blackmail and electoral interference. If left unchecked, similar tactics could be deployed in the Baltic states, the Balkans, and other vulnerable regions, many of which still rely on Russian energy or face internal political divisions that Moscow can exploit. The message would be clear: Russia can strangle a country’s economy, manipulate public opinion, and tilt an election—all at virtually no cost.
What Europe Must Do
Europe’s effort to assist in February suggests that there is an understanding of the stakes. But to safeguard Moldova’s democratic path and broader European security, the EU must do far more — not only to confront the energy blackmail but also to mitigate its political and social consequences.
· Provide Massive Economic Aid to Offset Inflation: Moldova cannot afford Western market prices for energy. Inflation has already hit ordinary citizens hard, creating fertile ground for political discontent. A robust EU aid package must go beyond energy subsidies to include targeted social assistance, price caps, and support for small businesses. This is not just an act of solidarity—it’s a strategic imperative to prevent anti-European forces from exploiting popular frustration.
· Counter Russian Disinformation at Scale: Moscow’s propaganda machine is working overtime to pin the energy crisis on Moldova’s leadership. Europe must respond with a coordinated campaign to expose Russian tactics, debunk misinformation, and promote media literacy. One promising step is the EU’s decision to open an Eastern Partnership office in Moldova—the first of its kind in the region—with disinformation as a top priority. But far more investment in narrative warfare is needed.
· Fast-Track Moldova’s EU Membership: Most importantly, it’s time to stop viewing Moldova through a narrow bureaucratic lens. The country faces governance challenges, yes—but so did many prior EU entrants. Moldova’s small size (2.5 million people) makes integration manageable, while its geopolitical importance is undeniable. A fast-tracked accession process, similar to the one Ukraine has received, would send a powerful message: that Europe stands with its partners in their hour of need. And it would focus the minds of voters, counteracting the interference from Moscow.
Russia’s playbook is clear: create hardship, fuel resentment, and leverage democratic elections to install loyalist regimes that will cement authoritarianism and attempt to make permanent their hold on power. If it succeeds in Moldova, the European dream will be blocked from that country for a generation. Ukraine will be further isolated, and the Kremlin will chalk up another geopolitical win without firing a shot.
This is not just Moldova’s problem. It is Europe’s. It can be averted — but time is running out.
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