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There’s something about December that seems to charm equity markets into a year-end flourish.

For decades, investors have noted how the final month of the calendar tends to bring tidings of green screens and positive returns, fuelling what has become known as the Santa Claus rally.

But behind the festive metaphor lies a consistent, data-backed pattern.

Over the past four decades, the S&P 500 has gained in December about 74% of the time, with an average monthly return of 1.44% –– second only to November.

This seasonal cheer is echoed across European markets, with some indices showing even stronger performances.

Since its inception in 1987, the EURO STOXX 50, the region’s blue-chip benchmark, has posted an average December gain of 1.87%. That makes the Christmas period the second-best month of the year after November’s 1.95%.

More striking, however, is its winning frequency. December closes in positive territory 71% of the time — higher than any other month.

The best December for the index came in 1999, when it surged 13.68%, while the worst was in 2002, when it fell 10.2%.

Rally gathers steam in late December

Zooming in on country-level indices further reinforces the seasonal trend.

The DAX, Germany’s flagship index, has shown an average December return of 2.18% over the past 40 years, trailing only April’s 2.43%. It finishes the month higher 73% of the time, again tying with April for the best track record.

France’s CAC 40 follows a similar pattern, gaining on average 1.57% in December with a 70% win rate, also ranking it among the top three months.

Spain’s IBEX 35 and Italy’s FTSE MIB are more moderate but still show consistent strength, with December gains of 1.12% and 1.13% respectively.

But the magic of December doesn’t usually kick off at the start of the month. Instead, the real momentum tends to build in the second half.

According to data from Seasonax, the EURO STOXX 50 posts a 2.12% average return from 15 December through year-end, rising 76% of the time.

The DAX performs similarly, gaining 1.87% on average with a 73% win rate, while the CAC 40 shows even stronger second-half returns of 1.95%, ending positive in 79% of cases.

What’s behind the rally? It’s not just Christmas spirit

So what exactly drives this December seasonal phenomenon? Part of the answer lies in fund managers’ behaviour.

Christoph Geyer, an analyst at Seasonax, believes the rally is closely tied to the behaviour of institutional investors. As the year draws to a close, many fund managers make final portfolio adjustments to lock in performance figures that will be reported to clients and shareholders.

This so-called “price maintenance” often leads to increased buying, especially of stocks that have already done well or are poised to benefit from short-term momentum.

This behavioural pattern gains importance in years when indices such as the DAX trade within a sideways range — as has been the case since May this year. A sideways market is one where asset prices fluctuate within a tight range, lacking a clear trend.

According to Geyer, a breakout from this sideways range for the DAX appears increasingly likely as December kicks in.

From mid-November to early January, historical patterns suggest a favourable outcome, with a ratio of 34 positive years versus 12 negative for the German index — and average gains exceeding 6% in the positive years.

While past performance does not guarantee future returns, December’s track record across major global and European indices provides a compelling narrative for investors.

In short, December’s strength is not just about festive optimism. It’s a convergence of seasonal statistics, institutional dynamics, and technical positioning.

Disclaimer: This information does not constitute financial advice, always do your own research to ensure investments are right for your specific circumstances. We are a journalistic website and aim to provide the best guidance from experts. If you rely on the information on this page, then you do so entirely at your own risk.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) began to restore trading on Friday after a technical issue disrupted operations on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.

The shutdown was triggered by a cooling system failure at a data centre in the Chicago area, according to the facility’s operator, CyrusOne.

Engineering teams have since restarted several chillers and installed temporary cooling equipment to stabilise conditions, a spokesperson told Bloomberg.

According to CME Group’s indications, trading in US equity futures should be restarting soon after a glitch knocked it out for several hours.

The CME, one of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges, hosts near-continuous trading in millions of contracts tied to the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq 100. Friday’s interruption left traders grappling with uncertainty as they awaited the restoration of the platforms that underpin much of global futures activity.

The outage halted trading of US Treasury futures, while European and UK bond markets that trade on a different exchange were reported unaffected.

Futures in individual stocks were not affected, either. Coinbase Global rose 2.6% in pre-market trading as Bitcoin stayed above $91,000.

Wall Street is operating on an abbreviated schedule on Friday after being closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Stock trading will close at 1pm Eastern Time (7pm CET).

In European trading, Germany’s DAX rose 0.20% after the release of fresh inflation data.

Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.23% on gains in energy and mining stocks. The CAC 40 in France rose 0.19%.

In other dealings, Brent crude, the international standard for pricing, rose 0.13% to $62.62 per barrel.

Catastrophe bonds — as the name may suggest — aren’t for fledgling investors. Even so, these high-yield, high-risk securities are attracting growing interest as natural catastrophes intensify.

First developed for the US market in the 1990s, cat bonds are issued by governments, insurers, or reinsurers to cover the costs of natural disasters. Investors buy the instrument in the hope that a payout won’t be triggered, meaning they’ll get their money back plus a return. Alternatively, in the case of a bond-triggering natural disaster, the issuer will keep the capital to cover the fallout.

“From the perspective of insurers and reinsurers, cat bonds provide access to an alternative source of capital that is more flexible than on-balance sheet capital and can be targeted towards absorbing specific types and layers of risk,” said Brandan Holmes, VP-senior credit officer at Moody’s Ratings. “Cat bonds can also be more cost effective than traditional reinsurance,” he told Euronews.

The appeal of these securities has gained prominence in the wake of recent disasters like Jamaica’s Hurricane Melissa. Crucially, capital markets provide nations with a vital means to lower insurance costs at a time when aid spending in rich countries is dropping. Repeated natural disasters can push governments into insurmountable debt, particularly as the cost of servicing those dues becomes higher.

From an investor perspective, the instrument also has its perks. Not only do the bonds carry attractive yields because of their risky nature, they provide portfolio diversification because of their limited correlation with financial markets. This means that when stocks and typical bonds fall at the same time — an uncommon but real scenario — catastrophe bonds offer some protection. “They also tend to have relatively short maturities which provide investors with flexibility in asset allocation decisions,” said Holmes.

Complex trigger conditions

According to data firm Artemis, the outstanding value of the global cat bond market is around $57.9 billion (€49.93bn). Despite the growing climate risk, these assets also saw historically strong returns in 2023 and 2024, reaching 20% and 17% respectively.

One factor boosting returns is that investors only pay out if certain conditions are met. For example, when Hurricane Beryl hit Jamaica last year, the nation failed to get any cat bond coverage when air pressure failed to drop below a certain threshold. On the other hand, in the wake of this year’s Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica will receive a full payout of $150 million (€129.37mn) thanks to its World Bank catastrophe insurance.

Analysts stress that the complex conditions surrounding cat bonds make the product unsuitable for inexperienced investors. “You have to have a really good understanding of the risk passed on,” said Maren Josefs, credit analyst at S&P Global. She added: “What we’ve also seen recently is investors presuming they are investing in extreme events, like a really big hurricane or earthquake. But over the last few years, mid-sized events such as tornadoes, wildfires, or floods have been happening with greater frequency, meaning some investors were surprised when they lost money to these sorts of natural disasters.”

Institutional investors are currently the key purchasers of cat bonds. However, there are ways for retail investors to gain indirect exposure to the product. Earlier this year, the world’s first ETF (exchange traded fund) investing in cat bonds made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange, meaning fund managers can now pool investor contributions to buy cat bonds. In the EU, the instruments aren’t easy for non-professionals to access, but indirect exposure is possible through UCITS, a type of mutual fund.

“The actual cat bond that gets issued, there’s no way that either a US or EU retail investor can just buy that,” said Johannes Schahn, an associate at Mayer Brown who advises on debt issuance. “They’re only offered to qualified investors,” he continued, “but what has been happening occasionally is that mutual funds invest or partially invest in cat bonds.”

ESMA weighs in

Despite the perks of these securities, their availability may be further restricted in the EU in the coming years. This comes after a report from the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), sent to the European Commission this summer, advising that cat bonds shouldn’t be included in UCITS. The market watchdog clarified that UCITS should only hold a small indirect exposure of up to 10% to these instruments.

While ESMA’s recommendation has ignited conversations around the risks of cat bonds for non-professional investors, Kian Navid, senior policy officer for investment management at ESMA, told Euronews that the advice sent to the Commission wasn’t passing a value judgement on the investments. “It is not that ESMA’s technical advice takes a position against retail investors accessing cat bonds per se. The advice is not about outlining what constitutes a good or bad investment, but it provides data and risk analyses for the European Commission’s consideration,” he explained. “However, conceptually, if you opened up UCITS to alternative assets (like cat bonds) beyond 10%, that would risk blurring the lines between UCITS and alternative investment funds (AIFs).”

A decision from the Commission is still pending, and this will involve public consultations and further market analysis in 2026. Even so, it remains to be seen whether catastrophe bonds will appeal to European tastes.

“It’s a product that is established in the US market and less so in Europe,” said Patrick Scholl, partner at Mayer Brown. “I don’t know if there are many interested investors here… But if we see more catastrophe-driven developments in the region, we might see more of these products in Europe.”

European markets opened significantly lower on Friday, following a retreat in Asian shares in the morning and Wall Street’s tumble on Thursday, as investors reassessed the outlook for interest-rate cuts and questioned the lofty valuations of leading US technology and AI stocks.

“Markets are down across the board as investors fret about cracks in the narrative that’s driven the mother of all tech rallies over the past few years,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. The key concern is “about rich equity valuations and how billions of dollars are being spent on AI just at a time when the jobs market is looking fragile”, he added.

In Europe, sentiment was gloomy on Friday morning as UK government bond yields jumped following reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves has abandoned plans to raise income tax rates in this month’s Autumn Budget. The ten-year gilt yield climbed above 4.54% before easing slightly. If confirmed, the chancellor’s move — first reported by the Financial Times — would leave a shortfall in the public finances.

London equities weakened, with bank shares among the worst performers on the FTSE 100 as investors digested the prospect of a tighter fiscal backdrop.

By around 11:00 CET, the FTSE 100 was down more than 1.1%, the European benchmark Stoxx 600 had lost nearly 1%, the DAX in Frankfurt dipped more than 0.7% and the CAC 40 in Paris fell nearly 0.7%. The Madrid and Milan indexes were down 1.2% and 1% respectively.

“Despite the doom and gloom, the scale of the market pullback wasn’t severe enough to suggest widespread panic,” said Coatsworth, adding that “a 1% decline in the FTSE 100 is not out of the ordinary for a one-day movement when markets are feeling grumpy”.

On the corporate front, luxury group Richemont was among the best performers, soaring 7.5% after beating forecast first-half results. Siemens Energy jumped more than 10% after the company raised its targets for the 2028 financial year. In other news, French Ubisoft delayed its financial report for the past six months; trading in its shares was suspended after an earlier drop of more than 8%.

Across the Atlantic, Wall Street endured one of its weakest sessions since April on Thursday, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.7% from its record high set a day earlier. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2.3%.

Shares in major AI-linked companies came under heavy selling pressure, with Nvidia down 3.6%, Super Micro Computer off 7.4%, Palantir falling 6.5% and Broadcom losing 4.3%. Oracles lost more than 4%.

The sector’s extraordinary gains this year have prompted comparisons with the dot-com boom, fuelling doubts about how much further prices can rise.

Expectations for a further US interest-rate cut in December have also diminished, with market pricing now suggesting only a marginal chance the Federal Reserve will move again this year.

Asian markets mirrored the downbeat tone as fresh data showed China’s factory output grew at its slowest pace in 14 months in October, rising 4.9% year on year — down from 6.5% in September and missing expectations. Fixed-asset investment also weakened, dragged down by ongoing softness in the property sector.

South Korea’s Kospi led regional losses, tumbling 3.8% amid heavy selling of technology shares. Samsung Electronics dropped 5.5% and SK Hynix slid 8.5%, while LG Energy Solution lost 4.4%. Taiwan’s Taiex declined 1.8%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed nearly 1.8%, reversing Thursday’s gains, with SoftBank Group plunging 6.6%. In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2% and the Shanghai Composite slipped 1%.

Meanwhile, oil prices strengthened. Brent crude rose nearly 1.6% to $63.99 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate added 1.8% to $59.76. The dollar was slightly firmer at ¥154.55, while the euro traded at $1.1637.

European shares extended their rally to fresh record highs on Wednesday, buoyed by optimism over a potential resolution to the prolonged US government shutdown and a steady stream of upbeat corporate news.

The region-wide STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% in early trading to an all-time high of 583.4, with major bourses in positive territory.

Investor sentiment was lifted after the US Senate approved a temporary funding bill to end the record 43-day shutdown, with markets betting that the measure will secure full passage in the coming days. There were broad-based gains led by healthcare and luxury stocks, after a positive brokerage note on Novo Nordisk and speculation of a Chinese expansion by Louis Vuitton boosted sentiment across the region.

The euro remains under slight pressure, trading around $1.157 per € at 11.30 CET after a modest retreat. This comes as the US dollar steadies amid improving risk sentiment and hopes that the US government shutdown will soon be resolved. On the commodity front, energy prices are drifting slightly lower as crude oil futures slipped, reflecting calmer concerns about supply disruptions.

On this side of the ocean, yields on UK government bonds, or gilts, rose sharply as investors grew uneasy over the prospect that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves could face pressure to step down following the Budget. Downing Street said Starmer would resist any leadership challenge.

London’s FTSE 100 edged higher on Wednesday, hovering near the 10,000 mark to trade at fresh record highs, as investors shrugged off volatility in global tech shares.

“UK stocks made progress despite some volatility in the AI space in the US and Asia overnight,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Meanwhile, multinational energy company SSE saw its share price skyrocket by more than 12% after it unveiled an ambitious investment plan. It will nearly double its investment to £33bn (€37.5bn) by 2027 and will be partly financed by a £2bn equity raise with the remainder coming from debt, asset sales and existing cash flow.

Phil Ross, equity research analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said the market had begun to wonder whether SSE might raise capital to fund its strong future growth prospects, and this uncertainty had weighed on the shares in recent months.

“This morning’s announced equity raise puts those doubts to bed as part of the new CEO’s strategy, and leaves a clear pathway to profitable and reliable growth, focusing on the big opportunity in UK power networks,” Ross said, adding: “With the future runway for growth now in place, the company is in a great position to cement itself as one of the UK’s leading energy groups in the UK.”

UK-based BAE Systems reported strong performance for its financial year. The company said robust demand supported BAE’s expectations for further profit growth.

The defence giant has secured more than £27bn (€30.6bn) in orders so far this year, with additional deals expected before year-end.

The company reaffirmed its recently upgraded full-year guidance, forecasting sales growth of 8–10% and underlying operating profit growth of 9–11%. BAE plans to return about £1.5bn (€1.7bn) to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2025. Shares were little changed in early trading.

One of the key developments shaping international market sentiment on Tuesday was SoftBank’s decision to sell its entire stake in Nvidia, worth $5.83 bn (€5bn). This move resulted in a 10% dive of the Japanese technology company’s share prices on Wednesday in the Asian trade, as equity markets reacted unfavourably to the surprise announcement.

“Corrections are a healthy and necessary fact of life in financial markets, but investors will be wary of any signs this is turning into a pronounced sell-off,” according to Mould, who added that attention is now turning to Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings update on 19 November.

Mould also highlighted that once the US government shutdown is resolved, investors will focus on a wave of upcoming US economic data, including third-quarter GDP.

In more corporate news, the world’s largest electronics maker, Foxconn, posted anticipation-exceeding results showing a jump in its third-quarter profit of 17% from a year earlier, fuelled by growth in its artificial intelligence server business.

The company said it was “optimistic” about the performance of AI and smart consumer electronics in the fourth quarter, which are expected to show significant growth momentum.

European stocks rallied at the start of the new trading week as a late test vote in the Senate on Sunday raised expectations for a bipartisan deal to fund the government, lifting investor sentiment across regions.

US stock futures climbed, and European indices followed suit.

Germany’s DAX rose 1.5%, France’s CAC 40 gained 1.4% and London’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.8% at around 11:00 CET. The uptick reflected renewed optimism that the shutdown, which has hindered access to key economic data, could soon end, alleviating uncertainty for markets.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said the Senate vote was an important first step, but that there were still hurdles to be cleared.

“A key impact on the markets of the impasse, beyond the hit to the wider economy, has been the lack of data as key releases on areas like the jobs market have been delayed,” Mould said.

He added that this “created a considerable dose of the uncertainty which markets famously hate, and it is also hampering the ability of the Federal Reserve to make informed decisions on interest rates.”

“In this context, it’s not a surprise to see investors react positively to signs of progress, with Asian shares higher, indices on the front foot in Europe and US futures pointing towards gains when Wall Street opens later.”

A respite for whiskey and spirits

Meanwhile, shares in beleaguered drinks giant Diageo soared 6.4% in early trade on news that former Tesco chief executive Dave Lewis was appointed to lead the company.

Diageo is one of the world’s biggest drinks groups and a heavyweight in the FTSE 100, with a stable of blue-chip brands such as Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, Tanqueray, Don Julio and Baileys sold in more than 180 countries

The company has struggled with falling drink consumption after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, and an end to the government shutdown is positive for Diageo as the United States is its single largest market

Lewis, who is set to take over in January 2026, was known as “Drastic Dave” for his role in turning around the supermarket chain.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said the appointment was a “significant hire and a pleasant surprise”.

He explained that investors “are clearly excited about Diageo’s prospects under Lewis. The stock is unloved after several years of disappointment, and the appointment of a highly respected CEO could be enough to win over many investors.” However, Lewis knows he will ultimately be judged on results, not hope.

A boost for dollar exchanges and gold

In terms of currencies, the dollar exchange rate remains steady, with the current euro exchange rate hovering at around $1.15, while the yen exchange rate went up slightly to $154.1 or by 0.5%.

The UK pound is slightly weaker against the dollar, going down by 0.1% to $1.315.

Gold is up about 1.8% at roughly €3,521 per troy ounce (about €113 per gram and €113,200 per kilogram). It is still sought out as a safe place to park money, even as shutdown worries ease.

AI and tech leaders are firmer in pre-market trading alongside the broader risk-on tone, and reports show Nvidia up by around 3.5%.

The move sits within a wider global relief rally as investors price a potential end to the shutdown.

In other developments, shares of Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk rose by 2.3% by midday in Europe after the company announced a partnership with Indian drugmaker Emcure Pharmaceuticals to market its weight-loss treatment Wegovy under a new brand through an exclusive agreement.

Meanwhile, the company failed in its bid to acquire biotech firm Metsera. The biotech company based in New York, which develops promising drugs against obesity, said it would accept a revised offer from Pfizer of up to $10 billion (€8.65bn).

Published on 06/11/2025 – 20:47 GMT+1
•Updated
20:56

The Commission launched on Thursday an investigation into a potential collusion between the two stock exchange groups, Deutsche Börse and Nasdaq, in the market for derivative financial products.

At the heart of EU antitrust enforcer’s concerns is the potential coordination of their conduct in the listing, trading, and clearing of those derivatives, which, if proven, would be in violation of EU’s competition rules.

EU law encourage competition between different economic operators to ensure that prices are set fairly by the market, free from any collusion or abuse of dominant position.

In September 2024, the Commission carried out unannounced inspections at the premises of both financial groups, as permitted under EU rules.

It targeted their practices around financial derivatives, which are contracts whose value changes depending on the price of another asset, such as stocks or commodities.

“Deutsche Börse and Nasdaq entities may have entered into agreements or concerted practices not to compete,” the Commission said in a statement, “in addition, the entities may have allocated demand, coordinated prices and exchanged commercially sensitive information.”

A deal made in 1999

Deutsche Börse and Nasdaq are among the world’s largest stock exchange groups.

According to EU competition commissioner Teresa Ribera, such behaviours could also affect “the proper functioning of the Capital Markets Union – a cornerstone for innovation, financial stability and growth.”

The completion of the European Capital Markets Union — a barrier-free market for capitals aimed at reducing their costs for listed companies and improve investment conditions — is one of the priorities of Commission’s president Ursula von der Leyen.

If there was a collusion between Deutsche Börse and Nasdaq, it would constitute “an artificial barrier” on the EU market, Commission’s spokesperson Thomas Regnier told Euronews.

Deutsche Börse reacted in a statement saying : “We are engaging constructively with the European Commission.”

The stock exchange group explained that the Commission’s investigation concerned a 1999 deal, which Deutsche Börse considers “pro-competitive”.

“It aimed to build deeper liquidity in the respective Nordic derivatives markets and create efficiencies,” it argued, adding: “It provided clear benefits for market participants and was public.”

The 1999 deal was made between Deutsche Börse’s derivatives branch Eurex and the Helsinki Stock Exchange, which was acquired by Nasdaq in 2008, for the Nordic derivatives markets, it said.

An estimated half a trillion dollars was wiped out from the financial markets this week, as some of the biggest tech companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir Technologies saw a temporary but sizeable drop in their share prices on Tuesday. It may have been just a short-lived correction, but experts warn of mounting signs of a financial market crash, which could cost several times this amount.

With dependence on tech and AI growing, critics argue that betting on these profits is a gamble, stressing that the future remains uncertain.

Singapore’s central bank joined a global chorus of warnings from the IMF, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and Andrew Bailey about overvalued stocks.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore said on Wednesday that such a trend is fuelled by “optimism in AI’s ability to generate sufficient future returns”, which could trigger sharp corrections in the broader stock market.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict a 10–20% decline in equities over the next one to two years, their CEOs told the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, CNBC reported.

Experts interviewed by Euronews Business also agree that a sizeable correction could be on the way.

In a worst-case scenario, a market crash could wipe out trillions of dollars from the financial markets.

According to Mathieu Savary, chief European strategist at BCA Research, Big Tech companies, including Nvidia and Alphabet, would cause a $4.4 trillion (€3.8tn) market wipeout if they were to lose just 20% of their stock value.

“If they go down 50%, you’re talking about an $11tr (€9.6tr) haircut,” he said.

AI rally: Bubble or boom?

The US stock market has defied expectations this year. The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% over the past 12 months, despite geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainty driven by Washington’s tariff policies. Gains have been strongest in tech, buoyed by optimism over future AI profits.

While Big Tech continues to deliver, with multibillion-dollar AI investments and massive infrastructure buildouts now routine, concerns are growing over a slowing US economy, compounded by limited data during the government shutdown. Once fresh figures emerge, they could rattle investors.

AI enthusiasm is most evident in Nvidia’s extraordinary stock gains and soaring valuation. The company is central to the tech revolution as its graphics processing units (GPUs) are essential for AI computing.

Nvidia’s shares have surged over 3,000% since early 2020, recently making it the world’s most valuable public company. Between July and October alone, it gained $1tr (€870bn) in market capitalisation — roughly equal to Switzerland’s annual GDP. Its stock trades at around 45 times projected earnings for the current fiscal year.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Much of this growth is backed by real financial progress, and despite the massive nominal increase in value, relative valuations don’t look overstretched.”

Analysts debate whether the current market mirrors the dot-com bubble of 2000. Nathan notes that many tech companies that failed back then never reached profitability, unlike today’s giants, which generate strong revenues and profits, with robust demand for their products.

Ben Barringer, global head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, added: “With governments investing heavily in AI infrastructure and rate cuts likely on the horizon, the sector has solid foundations. It is an expensive market, but not necessarily a screaming bubble. Momentum is hard to sustain, and not every company will thrive.”

BCA Research sees a bubble forming, though not set to burst immediately. Chief European strategist Mathieu Savary said such bubbles historically peak when firms begin relying on external financing for large projects.

Investments in assets for future growth, or capital expenditures, as a share of operating cash flow, have jumped from 35% to 70% for hyperscalers, according to Savary. Hyperscalers are tech firms such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta that run massive cloud computing networks.

“The share of operating earnings is likely to move above 100% before we hit the peak,” Savary added. This means that they may soon be investing more than they earn from operations.

Recent examples of Big Tech firms turning to external financing for such moves include Meta’s Hyperion project with Blue Owl Capital and Alphabet’s €3 billion bond issue for AI and cloud expansion.

While AI investment growth is hard to sustain, Quilter’s Barringer told Euronews: “If CapEx starts to moderate later this year, markets may start to get nervous.”

Other factors to watch include return on invested capital and rising yields and inflation pressures, which could signal a higher cost of capital and a bubble approaching its end.

“But we’re not there yet,” said Savary.

Further concerns and how to hedge against market turbulence

Even as tech companies ride the AI wave, inflated expectations for future profits may prove difficult to meet.

“The sceptics’ main problem may not be with AI’s potential itself, but with the valuations investors are paying for that potential and the speed at which they expect it to materialise,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

A recent report by BCA reflects the mounting reasons to question the AI narrative, but the technology “remains a potent force”, said the group.

If investor optimism does slow, “a sharp correction in tech could still have ripple effects across broader markets, given the sector’s dominant weight in global indices,” Barringer said. He added that other regions and asset classes, such as bonds and commodities, would be less directly affected and could provide an important balance during a downturn.

According to Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, “investors should use this opportunity to crystallise impressive gains and diversify their portfolios to include a range of sectors, geographies and asset classes — adding resilience to portfolios. The gold price tipping up is screaming a warning again — a siren that this rally will not last.”

European benchmarks began the week with gains. Oil and gold prices increased, but the euro weakened against the dollar. Sentiment was influenced by OPEC+’s decision to pause production hikes in the first quarter of next year, which led to a modest rise in oil prices as fears of oversupply eased. Gains were, however, mostly lost by late morning.

The international benchmark, Brent crude futures, traded at $64.76, while US West Texas Intermediate cost $60.92 a barrel.

Alongside pauses in the new year, OPEC+ countries agreed on Sunday to increase output by a small 137,000 barrels per day in December, maintaining the pace set for October and November.

Meanwhile, investors expect fresh Western sanctions on Russia, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, to hinder the country’s ability to boost production further.

At the same time, major Western oil companies are benefitting from the disrupted supply of Russian refined fuels due to attacks and sanctions. Refining margins have risen substantially, giving the oil majors a boost. Both BP and Shell share prices were slightly up on Monday before noon in Europe.

“The decision by producers’ cartel OPEC+ to pause further output hikes at the start of next year, amid concerns about a glut of supply, helped give oil prices a lift and, in turn, boosted UK market heavyweights BP and Shell,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

The movements also came as BP announced it had agreed to divest stakes in US shale assets to Sixth Street investment firm on Monday.

Winners in Europe

At 11:00 CET, the UK’s FTSE 100 was up by a few points. The DAX in Frankfurt was leading the gains, up 0.8% after an initial stutter. The CAC 40 in Paris started climbing, reaching gains of nearly 0.2%. The lift in France came despite national budget uncertainties and the release of negative PMI data, which showed that the country’s manufacturing sector was still contracting in October.

US futures were positive around the same time, rising between 0.1% and 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the earnings season continues. A number of European companies are reporting this week, including AstraZeneca, BP, BMW, and Commerzbank.

Ryanair opened the week by posting stronger-than-expected results for the first half of its financial year, spanning April to September. Revenues rose 13% to €9.82bn, as traffic grew 3% and fares increased by 13%. Over the same period, profit rose by 42% year-on-year to €2.54bn, driven by a strong Easter season.

The airline’s shares were up 2.90% in Dublin at around midday.

Looking ahead, Ryanair’s outspoken CEO Michael O’Leary criticised countries in Europe where airlines face high taxes, including environmental duties. In an interview with CNBC, he threatened to move capacity outside the UK should the new budget include such a levy.

“Ryanair is also one of several airline operators with an eagle eye on taxes and costs. It is no longer putting up with unfavourable tax systems, preferring to switch flights and routes to less punitive locations,” Mould commented.

In other markets, the euro weakened against the US dollar by more than 0.2%, hitting a rate of $1.1517 by 11:00 CET. At the same time, the Japanese yen and the British pound were also losing ground against the greenback, with the dollar trading at ¥154.15 and the pound costing $1.3136.

Gold traded just above $4,000, rising slightly by 0.3%.