Stealth

A pair of previously unseen missiles slung beneath the wings of a Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) Mitsubishi F-2 fighter underscores the progress Tokyo is making on expanding its long-range strike arsenal, to which the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile was recently added. While the weapon has not been officially identified, its size, configuration, and timing strongly suggest it could be the air-launched version of Japan’s new Type 25 Surface-to-Ship Guided Missile (25SSM).

Photographer @bibabibabibary on X was one of many to capture the new missiles during what was apparently the first test flight from Gifu Air Base today. The aircraft carrying them was the two-seat F-2B serial 68-8101, one of the F-2 prototypes now operated by the JASDF’s Air Development and Test Wing (ADTW). The first F-2A prototype, 68-8101, served as a ‘chase plane’ for the sortie.

Carried on the inboard wing pylons, the missiles are notably large — bigger than the familiar ASM-2 or even the newer, ramjet-powered ASM-3 anti-ship missiles already associated with the F-2 fleet. The new, gray-painted weapons have a long, fairly slender fuselage, folding wings in the upper part of the body, and four cruciform tailfins. The boxier cross-section has ‘chines’ reminiscent of those on other low-observable missiles. Its stealth features should enhance its survivability and lethality against increasingly capable naval integrated air defense systems. An underslung engine intake, with a protective cap, is located below the rear part of the body. There is no obvious optical window, suggesting that the missile relies on GPS/INS navigation and a radar seeker for the terminal phase.

Overall, the weapon has the look of a subsonic, radar-evading cruise missile optimized for long-endurance flight rather than high-speed dash performance.

どうやらスタンドオフ防衛能力向上のための12式地対艦誘導弾空発型のようですね。
初めて吊るし飛んだと思いますが凄くでっかくて太いです…。
後席Pさん👍

2026.07.30
岐阜基地 RJNG
F-2B 101 pic.twitter.com/eP4E443OOI

— ボボ・AKEBOVO (@AKEBOVO) July 30, 2026

Significantly, the new missile has a lot of similarities with what we have seen of the Upgraded Type 12/Type 25 family of weapons, suggesting that this is an air-launched derivative.

The Upgraded Type 12/Type 25 is a heavily upgraded evolution of Japan’s legacy Type 12 anti-ship missile, with its range reportedly increased to around 1,000 kilometers (around 620 miles).

Once in service, it will substantially increase Japan’s maritime-strike reach. The original Type 12 used by the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) has a range of 200 kilometers (124 miles), while the JASDF’s ASM-2 can strike targets at 180 kilometers (112 miles).

While the original Type 12 was conceived as a coastal defense weapon to attack enemy shipping, the new missile family is a multirole strike system capable of engaging maritime as well as land targets, including enemy missile launch sites and other fixed infrastructure, hundreds of miles from the home islands, as part of Japan’s evolving ‘counterstrike’ posture.

Japan’s pursuit of increasingly capable standoff weapons is being driven largely by the deteriorating security environment in the Indo-Pacific, particularly China’s rapid military expansion and growing arsenal of long-range precision missiles. The People’s Liberation Army fields extensive anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) networks designed to keep U.S. and allied forces at arm’s length, while China’s navy continues its rapid expansion. At the same time, North Korea’s advancing ballistic missile and nuclear programs have reinforced Tokyo’s view that it needs the ability not only to defend its territory, but also to hold hostile missile launchers, command nodes, and naval forces at risk before they can strike.

At the end of March of this year, the JGSDF announced the deployment of the Upgraded Type 12, and, at the same time, officially redesignated it as the Type 25 Surface-to-Ship Guided Missile (25SSM) — the “25” reflects fiscal year 2025, when the coastal defense weapon was formally inducted to service.

The Japan Ministry of Defense also says it plans to deploy ship- and air-launched variants of the 25SSM on Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyers and JASDF fighters in fiscal year 2027.

With that in mind, it would make sense that the weapons seen on the F-2 today are the air-launched variants of the 25SSM. We cannot be certain of that, however, and the official designation of such a missile is also unknown (ASM-4 has been suggested).

At this point, we don’t know the status of the new air-launched missile. However, Japan is currently testing a variety of new missiles.

The F-2 is also being used to test an improved version of the ASM-3 high-speed anti-ship missile, the ASM-3 Kai.

Japan is meanwhile working on the New Surface-to-Ship Missile. Earlier this year, an official video was released showing a flight test of the missile in which it executed a series of manoeuvres, including barrel rolls, intended to defeat defenses in the terminal phase of the attack. The New Surface-to-Ship Missile is powered by an efficient turbofan engine and is expected to have a greater range than the Upgraded Type 12. It is similarly intended for launch from ground, maritime, and air platforms. You can read more about it here.

The demonstration of the New SSM’s barrel roll capability can be seen in the video starting at around 0:49 in the runtime.

P-31-1_島嶼防衛用新対艦誘導弾の要素技術の研究

As we reported earlier today, the JMSDF recently fired a U.S.-made Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile from one of its warships for the first time, the Aegis destroyer Chōkai, marking another significant expansion of the country’s standoff attack options.

In terms of air-launched weapons, Tokyo has procured the stealthy Joint Strike Missile (JSM) to arm its F-35As, giving them a combined standoff anti-ship and land-attack capability, and the longer-range JASSM has also been cleared for sale to Japan.

An air-launched Type 25 would fit well into Japan’s broader shift toward long-range ‘counterstrike’ capabilities, and add another string to the bow of the F-2. Alongside ground-launched Type 25 missiles, new hypersonic weapons, and Tomahawks, Tokyo is assembling a layered standoff strike arsenal designed to hold hostile ships and land targets at risk from far greater distances than ever before.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

When BAE Systems unveiled the first rendering of the United Kingdom’s Combat Air Flying Demonstrator last year, it finally gave us a look at the test aircraft that will spearhead development of the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), at the center of which is the stealthy Tempest fighter. Now, new images, as well as a scale model, provide more details and a better idea of its scale.

The company has released its clearest official photograph yet of the demonstrator under construction. Seen at the top of this story, it shows the fuselage of the jet being built at the BAE Systems facility in Samlesbury. Meanwhile, the wings and fins are being built at Warton, from where the aircraft is due to fly before the end of 2027.

In aerospace, a demonstrator (or technology demonstrator) is an aircraft built primarily to prove technologies, manufacturing methods, aerodynamic concepts, and systems integration, rather than to become an operational weapon system. As a precursor to a prototype that would more closely represent a final configuration, they are nearly always smaller, simpler designs that leverage off-the-shelf components wherever possible to get them into the air faster and to prove core concepts and/or a package of concepts. The last such known fighter demonstrator in this class built in the United Kingdom was the British Aerospace EAP that first flew in 1986 and proved the concept for the Typhoon that followed it. 

The Combat Air Flying Demonstrator will inform the sixth-generation Tempest fighter, which is being developed for the air forces of the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan, for service in the 2040s and beyond. Canada also recently joined the program as an observer, and there are reports that Germany might also be considering coming on board.

A model of the Combat Air Flying Demonstrator presented at the Farnborough International Airshow in England earlier this week:

The new scale model confirms that the twin-engine aircraft has outward-canted twin fins and no horizontal tails. Another major difference that we know about relates to the powerplant. The Combat Air Flying Demonstrator will use the same EJ200 turbofans as the Typhoon. The production Tempest will feature an all-new powerplant that is now under development. Nevertheless, officials have said that the demonstrator will have fighter-style handling, despite its size and lack of thrust compared to the Tempest.

Overall, the demonstrator aircraft has some similarities to the F-35 (except the horizontal tails), including forward-swept intakes that are a DSI design and a prominent ‘chine’ on the forward fuselage. The center fuselage section is notably long and broad, something carried over, but to a lesser degree, from Tempest renderings and models.

The inboard leading edge of the wing is slightly cranked, there is some forward sweep on the trailing edge, and the wingtips are severely cropped. The result is something of a modified cropped-delta wing, very different to the lambda wing that appeared on the very first Tempest concept and closer to the large-area delta that appears on later Tempest concepts. As for the demo jet’s tailfins, these are simpler than those on the latest Tempest mockup, being trapezoidal rather than having five ‘sides’.

The canopy also appears to offer limited rearward visibility. The underside of the fuselage almost has area-ruled, hour-glass-like contours.

The factory-floor photograph includes technicians, assembly tooling, work platforms, and production fixtures that immediately provide useful reference points. Even allowing for perspective effects, the demonstrator’s center fuselage appears broad and deep.

Looking down the spine of the aircraft, the width of the centerbody is especially striking. The absence of skin panels exposes a substantial internal space, which accommodates low-observable serpentine intakes, while the distance between the outer mold line on each side further hints at the generous internal volume available inside the aircraft.

Of course, perspective can exaggerate proportions, and this remains a technology demonstrator rather than the final operational GCAP fighter, let alone a Tempest prototype. The aircraft that eventually enters service in the mid-2030s will undoubtedly differ in various respects.

Air Commodore Martin Lowe, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program director at the U.K. Ministry of Defense, has stressed this exact reality. He highlights that the Combat Air Flying Demonstrator is not a Tempest prototype, particularly not “in terms of shape or size.” The final configuration of the Tempest has yet to be settled, but it will surely be bigger and more complex than the demonstrator. A new, full-size mockup of the Tempest was also presented at the Farnborough International Airshow in England this week.

While the Combat Air Flying Demonstrator has a definite F-35 ‘look,’ the latest Tempest mockup owes more to the F-22 Raptor. In fact, in at least one recent render, seen below, it appears like a wider, squatter F-22, suggesting an even more generous internal capacity.

As TWZ previously reported, the future combat aircraft is being designed around “really extreme range” and a payload approximately double that of the F-35A. Just in terms of internal and external ordnance, for the F-35A, this equates to more than 18,000 pounds, according to the manufacturer. This would suggest the Tempest’s internal payload will be around 10,000 pounds compared to the F-35A’s 5,000 pounds.

Those requirements point toward a substantially larger aircraft with dramatically greater internal volume than today’s fighters. They also reflect similar concerns that have driven the development of the U.S. Air Force’s Boeing F-47 under the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative.

Range is heavily dictated by fuel load, which the Tempest will carry internally to preserve its stealth qualities. At the same time, carrying significantly more — and larger — internal weapons than current fighters demands larger weapons bays. Sixth-generation aircraft are also expected to require unprecedented electrical power generation and cooling capacity to support advanced sensors, electronic warfare suites, communications systems, onboard computing, and potentially future capabilities such as directed-energy weapons.

Previous renderings gave us an idea of the shape of Britain’s future stealth fighter demonstrator. However, the new model and photos from the production line provide useful new detail of the Combat Air Flying Demonstrator, including a better appreciation of its scale. Ultimately, once the Tempest appears, it will likely be an even bigger and more impressive aircraft.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

HOLLYWOOD filmmaker Guy Ritchie has been given the go-ahead to create Airbnbs on his historic airfield.

The Brit director angered local residents with his scheme to turn staff accommodation at Compton Abbas Airfield in Dorset into holiday lets.

They have accused him of trying to build an “aviation theme park by stealth” and “by any means” with no consideration for he local environment.

They fear his ultimate goal is to have a hotel on the sensitive site which is in the Dorset National Landscape and part of the Cranborne Chase International Dark Sky Reserve.

The Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels director has already opened a smokehouse restaurant and re-routed a 130-year-old public footpath since buying the airfield in 2022.

He puts on Spitfire flight experiences and has turned the airfield into a popular visitor destination with events held throughout the year.

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Now his plans for two holiday apartments – one two-bedroom and one four-bedroom – have been won planning permission.

They will allow guests to stay overnight while they enjoy flying experiences during the day.

The airfield has had permission for a flat for live-in staff since 2005.

Locals argued this was for a member of staff to live on site to provide “security and safety”.

But Dorset Council disagreed and said there was no planning reason to refuse it.

Planning officer Jamie Francis said: “The owner has been open that they are seeking to generate additional income streams for the airfield, which would have personal gain, this is also considered to bring economic benefits to the area.

“Overall, the re-use of the building for tourist accommodation in place of staff accommodation is considered acceptable.

“A condition has been applied to ensure that the accommodation is used for short term lets only and not for permanent residential accommodation.

“The conversion of one unit of staff accommodation and one office unit to two units of holiday accommodation is considered acceptable.

“In addition, two units of accommodation to two units of holiday accommodation are considered acceptable.

“Therefore, the Council see no reason to refuse the application on this basis.

“The impact of holiday accommodation is anticipated to have a negligible impact on neighbouring amenity, air pollution, and the overall business of the airfield and flight activities.”

The airfield is near Ritchie’s Ashcombe Estate on the Dorset/Wiltshire border.

He previously shared Ashcombe House with ex-wife Madonna and now he and wife Jacqui split their time between their London home and the country estate.

He has hosted celebrity pals there, including David Beckham and Robert Downey Jnr.

Neighbour Christopher Dymond said the regular flying events caused a nuisance and disturbance to neighbours and likened going into his garden to “walking onto a WW2 film set”.

Mr Dymond said: “Compton Abbas Airfield, until recently, was a polite small grass airfield run for local flying enthusiasts and was managed carefully to reflect the incredibly sensitive location and the proximity of local villages.

“The airfield now is run on a much more commercial basis and largely by stealth is morphing into an aviation theme park with numerous events, shows and visitor attractions.

“The nuisance and disturbance to local residents has increased significantly and many of the historic planning restrictions governing the airfield are not being adhered to.

“Often, on a summer weekend, entering your garden is like walking onto a WW2 film set with noisy historic aircraft constantly flying overhead.

“The current apartment was only allowed on the basis it was an absolute necessity for a member of staff to be on site for safety and security reasons.

“If this safety and security requirement is no longer a necessity there are provisions in the planning legal agreements for the use to cease, not for it to be opened up for paying visitors to stay on the site, without any staff presence.”

Philip Cayford, a neighbour and member of the Compton Abbas Airfield Monitoring Group, said: “It began as a small private strip capable of hosting up to six small aircraft.

“It has long since been accepted that the original permission was a planning mistake; councils since that time have accepted the need to curb the expansion pushed for by successive owners.

“The current application would appear to be a further attempt to increase the size and profitability of this site by any means with no regard whatever for environmental issues or the inconvenience to local residents.

“Approving this application would constitute one further step in the commercial development of one of the most beautiful and sensitive rural landscapes in southern England, and as such is quite inappropriate.”

The Sun has approached Ritchie’s reps for comment.

One of the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 bombers fired an AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) during a recent live-fire sinking exercise (SINKEX) in the Western Pacific. The stealthy LRASM was not previously known to be in the B-2’s arsenal. Integration of the AGM-158C offers a huge boost in capability for the B-2, creating a penetrating fleet-killing platform that could be especially valuable in a future high-end fight in the Pacific against China.

“The Pacific Air Forces successfully conducted a live-fire Sinking Exercise using the B-2 Spirit north of the Mariana Islands. The B-2 deployed the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile, demonstrating enhanced ability to achieve strategic objectives within range of potential threats,” according to a press release today from Pacific Air Forces (PACAF). “With the deployment of the LRASM from the B-2 Spirit, the Pacific Air Forces takes a major step forward in countering maritime threats. This milestone showcased impressive high-end innovation reinforcing the US military’s commitment to safeguarding national interests and maintaining global security.”

The release does not provide any further details about the SINKEX, but PACAF confirmed to TWZ directly that the B-2 fired the LRASM at the ex-USS Juneau, a decommissioned Austin class amphibious warfare ship, as part of Exercise Valiant Shield 2026. U.S. and allied forces taking part in the exercise pummeled the Juneau with various munitions this weekend, sending it to the bottom of the Pacific, roughly 200 nautical miles off the coast of Guam. An unnamed Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) submarine appears to have delivered the final blow with a heavyweight torpedo. The B-2’s involvement was not mentioned until today.

“Exercises like Valiant Shield allow U.S. Pacific Command the opportunity to integrate forces from all branches of service and with our allies to conduct precise, lethal, and overwhelming multi-domain effects that demonstrate the strength and versatility of the Joint Force and our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” a PACAF spokesperson told TWZ.

As noted, the B-2’s ability to fire LRASM at all does not appear to have been previously disclosed. When reached for comment, Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) told TWZ that all details about the integration of the missile onto the B-2 were classified, as was whether or not the SINKEX represented any kind of first for the bomber.

A review of the Pentagon’s 2027 Fiscal Year budget proposal does not appear to show any mention of LRASM integration on B-2, or plans to do so in the future. The only cleared launch platforms explicitly mentioned are the Navy’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters and the U.S. Air Force’s B-1 bombers. Work has already been publicly underway to integrate LRASM onto the F-15E Strike Eagle, F-15EX Eagle II, F-16C/D Viper, at least certain variants of the F-35, and the P-8A Poseidon. Budget documents also mention plans to integrate the missile on the B-52 bomber.

The Air Force previously highlighted other efforts to expand the B-2’s anti-ship capabilities in the form of Quicksink precision-guided anti-ship bombs, which leverage the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guidance kit. You can read more about Quicksink here.

The AGM-158C is derived from the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) family of land-attack cruise missiles. The baseline AGM-158A JASSM and AGM-158B JASSM-Extended Range (JASSM-ER) are already known to be integrated onto the B-2. The B-2 is also known to be able to carry up to 16 AGM-158As, and is very likely capable of carrying the same number of JASSM-ERs and LRASMs, as all of these missiles have the same general form factor.

In terms of its general mode of operation, LRASM uses GPS-assisted Inertial Navigation System (INS) guidance to navigate first to a designated target area. The missile is highly autonomous, thanks to a built-in route planning capability that is linked to an onboard electronic support measures (ESM) package. The missile has the ability to automatically change course in response to the sudden emergence of enemy defenses based on their radio-frequency emissions, as well as use those signals to better detect potential targets.

After arriving in the target area, the missile’s imaging infrared sensor in the nose takes over for the terminal phase of flight. Using a built-in threat target library database, the seeker searches for and categorizes targets autonomously. Information in that database also helps steer the missile to hit the target ship at its most vulnerable point. As a passive sensor, the infrared seeker does not send out radio-frequency signals that an enemy could detect. It is also immune to radio-frequency jamming.

Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM)

LRASM also has a datalink that allows it to get threat updates while in flight. It can also work cooperatively with other LRASMs during coordinated strikes. A C-3 variant is now in development that will feature a boost in maximum range, as well as “C++ software, [an] enhanced BLOS [beyond-line-of-sight] Weapons Data Link, [and] advanced survivability” capabilities, according to previously released Navy budget documents. The range of existing versions of the LRASM is not publicly disclosed, but is reported to be between 200 and 300 miles, in line with the AGM-158A JASSM. The C-3 version is expected to have the same reach as the JASSM-ER, which is reported to be around 600 miles.

“With the deployment of the LRASM from the B-2 Spirit, the Pacific Air Forces takes a major step forward in countering maritime threats,” according to today’s release from that command. “This milestone showcased impressive high-end innovation reinforcing the US military’s commitment to safeguarding national interests and maintaining global security.”

“The B-2’s impressive performance underscores the US military’s commitment to adaptability and flexibility in the face of emerging security challenges,” Air Force Gen. Kevin B. Schneider, head of PACAF, also said in a statement. “By prioritizing counter-maritime strike operations, we can maintain a decisive edge over adversaries, protect our national interests and ensure the free and open Pacific that underpin our global security.”

As we noted right up front in this story, pairing the highly survivable and hard-to-spot B-2 with LRASM presents a new penetrating anti-ship capability. Each one of the bombers could engage multiple ships simultaneously and use their other attributes to get within range of even the most high-value targets, such as the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) growing fleet of aircraft carriers and big deck amphibious assault ships. LRASM’s range means that the bombers only need to be in hundreds of miles of their targets. As mentioned, the missiles themselves offer a high degree of survivability, as well.

We already know that the Air Force’s B-1 bomber crews have been training for years to use large LRASM barrages to decapitate major surface naval forces.

“LRASM plays a critical role in ensuring U.S. naval access to operate in both open-ocean and littoral environments due to its enhanced ability to discriminate between targets from long-range,” then-Lt. Col. Timothy Albrecht, said following B-1 training sorties over the Black Sea back in 2020. “With the increase of maritime threats and their improvement of anti-access/area-denial [A2/AD] environmental weapons, this stealthy anti-ship cruise missile provides reduced risk to strike assets by penetrating and defeating sophisticated enemy air-defense systems.”

At that time, Albrecht was a member of the U.S. Air Forces in Europe’s (USAFE) 603rd Air Operations Center and the Bomber Task Force mission planner.

The adversary A2/AD threat ecosystem globally has only continued to grow in scale and scope since then, and TWZ regularly calls attention to this reality. The PLA has already established significant A2/AD bubbles in the Pacific and continues to expand on those capabilities. In this context, the public disclosure of the B-2’s LRASM capability around Valiant Shield in the Pacific can also be seen as sending a message aimed straight at Beijing, just as the U.S. military has done with previous long-range weapon tests in the region in the past.

The fact that LRASM has been integrated onto the B-2 also points to future anti-ship capabilities on the forthcoming B-21 Raider fleet. The B-21 is notably smaller than the B-2, and will be able to carry less ordnance as a result, but the Air Force also plans to buy at least 100 of them, if not substantially more. The Raider is also expected to have extreme unrefueled range. Air Force officials talk regularly about what all this will mean for future operations compared to what is offered today by the still highly capable, but much smaller fleet of just 19 B-2s.

What has been revealed already is that the Air Force now has a very capable, long-range, deep-penetrating delivery platform capable of delivering its most capable and hard-to-detect anti-ship missiles.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Yesterday, TWZ published an analysis of a thermal image purportedly showing a previously unseen advanced aircraft design, which appears to be a precursor to the U.S. Air Force’s forthcoming F-47 fighter from Boeing. The image, which went viral online and is from a video that has now been released, is said to have been captured near the U.S. military’s secretive Groom Lake test base, better known as Area 51. It turns out, as a number of our readers have pointed out, there may be some interesting similarities between this secret aircraft and a “Christmas tree” fighter design concept crafted decades ago by Darold Cummings, one of the top minds behind Northrop’s YF-23 Black Widow.

You can find our full initial assessment of what we may be seeing in the viral image, first posted online by the Project Fear YouTube channel earlier this week, here. What we saw initially, as shown below, appeared to feature what could be described as a “double arrowhead” profile to its forward fuselage. This is a very distinct design cue, but it could also be a result of the low quality of the image and the artifacts that come with consumer-grade thermal imagers, which was what the aircraft was recorded with.

Project Fear has now released the full video it says it captured near Area 51, seen below, and it underscores the aforementioned points about image quality. So, it is possible the aircraft has a more traditional low-observable ‘shovel nose,’ instead. Nonetheless, the Christmas tree fighter is an interesting trip down lesser-known fighter development memory lane that is worth examining, in particular what such a unique nose configuration would provide an advanced fighter aircraft.

The full clip of the mysterious aircraft passing by starts at around 49:34 in the runtime of the video below if it does not automatically start playing at that point.

​We Filmed a Top Secret Craft Flying at Area 51

In a post on LinkedIn around the end of last year, Darold Cummings shared an intriguing blueprint of a relevant-looking advanced fighter concept, along with additional details about the design and its genesis. Cummings is currently the founder and president of ForzAero, but has an extensive resume in the aviation industry dating back decades. As noted, he was a key figure at Northrop in the development of the YF-23, which ultimately lost out to what became Lockheed’s F-22 Raptor. He also led the team at Boeing that developed the X-40A Space Maneuver Vehicle, which was used as a testbed in support of work on what evolved into the X-37B reusable spaceplane. He was Chief Engineer/Chief Designer of Rockwell’s Ranger 2000 Jet Trainer, as well.

“I was hired by Bob Sandusky in 1982 to be the Chief Configurator for the Northrop ATF [Advanced Tactical Fighter] program (YF-23). In early 1983 Bob said that Northrop had tried to develop a ‘4-spike’ (like the B-2) fighter, but it couldn’t be done, since a flying wing fighter was not possible,” Cummings wrote in his post on LinkedIn. “I told him I could design one, and he said to give it a try. The only way to accomplish this was with a series of highly swept (55 degree) surfaces over the entire length of the aircraft. The result was the DP-21, created in June of 1983.”

“4-spike” here essentially refers to the total number of radar cross-section hot-spots and where they are located, each pointing in a different direction in azimuth. The fewer ‘spikes’ a low-observable (stealthy) aircraft has, the easier it is to manage its radar signature, and to make it harder to detect and lock onto, but it’s also where those spikes are located that matter.

A four-spike design like the B-2 critically has nothing from the head-on aspect, as well as from the rear, which helps immensely with survivability. These are the most critical signature areas, especially the front as the aircraft is heading into hostile territory. Also, because these are located along the path of flight, these spikes can stay consistent on a threat radar as the aircraft moves directly toward or away from the sensor, and are not fleeting in nature like those from the side. So a four spike aircraft would be very attractive for a tactical fighter meant to persist in contested territory.

“I never considered this to be a serious contender for the ATF program, as the aircraft was unstable beyond 10 degrees angle of attack!” he also noted.

“Back in 1983, the ‘Christmas Tree’ DP-21 would have been difficult to fly. However, with modern flight control systems, this design could be controlled, even at high angle of attack,” Cummings told TWZ directly today after we reached out for more information. “Low observability is always better served with long edges on the design, so the small arrow-shaped foreplane is not ideal, but it still has low RCS characteristics, just not the optimum.”

“Wing shaping is always a trade-off for maximizing LO. Most of the trades have to do with the leading edge contour, which is a large contributor to signature,” he continued. “The canard has to be designed to be ‘ported’ during penetration, as this minimizes the signature. On the YF-23, the V-Tail was ‘ported’ in penetration for the same reason. This is certainly possible with modern flight control systems.”

“Ported” in this instance refers to keeping the control surface locked in the same geometric plane as the wing while cruising.

We also asked Cummings directly whether it was possible his DP-21 concept had an influence on what is seen in the viral thermal image, assuming it is authentic. And we asked for his take on what impacts Boeing’s experimental X-36 and Bird of Prey designs may have had on the F-47, as well.

“My DP-21 aircraft image has been available publicly for quite some time, so it is possible it had some influence, but that is only speculation on my part,” he told us. “I believe the X-36 and Bird of Prey have both influenced the F-47 design. I have always been impressed by the X-36, as it seemed to be ahead of its time.”

“The Groom Lake images are truly intriguing,” he also noted. “It is a viable concept.”

“I think the main thing to remember is that NO ONE thought a 4-spike design (like the B-2) was possible, and my DP-21 was an example of how it was possible,” he added. “A 4-spike design for the F-47 would truly be impressive!”

As TWZ already wrote yesterday, based on what is visible in the image:

“The image shows an exotic design by any interpretation. The aft-set lambda-type wings appear to have a camber and wingtip droop, as on the Boeing Bird of Prey demonstrator. There are very large canard foreplanes — a feature that appears prominently on F-47 renderings and which we have written in detail about in the past. The broad nose, too, is something that has been included in depictions of the F-47, although we have really no idea to what degree these are based in reality. It’s worth noting that in this new thermal image, it has a distinctive double-arrowhead shape, tapering in again in front of the canards. Even the canards themselves may have more than one plane, with the outer tips being drooped, matching similar architecture as the wing. The fuselage then tapers down in the center before the wing roots begin.”

“The aircraft is very likely to be tailless, a feature common to most sixth-generation concepts seen so far. However, since it’s seen from below, we cannot be sure about this aspect of its configuration.”

“As for the powerplant, it is most likely a twin-engine design, like the F-47, a theory reinforced by the sawtooth-type trailing edge. There is no obvious suggestion of any exhaust plumes, which seems odd, but that could be the result of the sensor being used in combination with the aircraft’s power setting at the time of recording, as well as general thermal signature reduction capabilities that are part of the design.”

“Soon after Boeing won the contract for the F-47, we looked at how it might have been influenced by the Phantom Works X-36, also a tailless-canard design.”

As mentioned earlier, the full video Project Fear released today does raise new questions about the exact profile of the front of the design seen in the footage. The idea of using a shovel nose profile on a stealthy aircraft dates back to Northrop’s Tacit Blue demonstrator, and it was found in its modern form the YF-23. It has since become common to see on low-observable (stealthy) designs, and has been notably present in official renders of the F-47 released to date.

Beyond the nose end, there are still some very broad similarities in the shaping of the wing and main body of the aircraft seen in the footage and Cummings’ DP-21 concept.

To date, there are no indications that an F-47 EMD prototype has flown. Air Force officials have said on multiple occasions now that first flight of the service’s new sixth-generation fighter is expected to come in 2028.

We do know that Boeing and Lockheed built flying demonstrator designs that fed into the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative, under which initial development of what has become the F-47 was carried out. Past reports have raised the possibility that there was a third NGAD demonstrator, which might have been built by Northrop Grumman. That company voluntarily dropped out of the NGAD combat jet competition around 2023, and is said to have been on the verge of being cut at the time.

As we noted yesterday, what is seen in the viral thermal image could be unrelated entirely to the F-47. The Navy has also been pursuing a carrier-based sixth-generation fighter, commonly referred to as F/A-XX, in recent years. There has been at least some crossover between F/A-XX and the Air Force’s NGAD effort. A rendering Boeing has shared of its proposed F/A-XX design looks very much in line with what has been shown of F-47 to date. Northrop Grumman is the other company currently competing to build the Navy’s sixth-generation carrier fighter, and has released its own renderings.

In addition, it should be said that official F-47 and F/A-XX renderings released to date will have been carefully manipulated to maximize security of the programs, both of which remain highly classified, and to provide disinformation to adversaries.

As an aside, Darold Cummings also shared his take on a prospective navalized version of the F-47 in a separate post on LinkedIn last year. At that time he wrote:

“I received a DM asking if I had envisioned a Navy version of my recent F-47 fighter concept,  such as  the F-35A to F-35C approach. I recently completed my F-47 Navy version, which I call the F-47N. However, the approach I took was somewhat different: The F-35C used a larger wing for low speed lift, whereas I used my original F-47 wing planform, and added a canard for more low speed lift and control. The canard design (inspired by the X-36), coupled with the Multi-Axis Thrust Vectoring (inspired by the X-44), provided a very reasonable first cut at a Navy version. In general, a canard layout has been treated as adding more radar signature to a fighter. However, on the YF-23 we found that if the all-moving surface (it was a V-tail on the YF-23) was kept “ported”, in this case aligned with the wing plane during cruise, the impact on LO was not a large impediment to signature reduction. The ability to keep the canard ported is achievable using thrust vectoring for trim in cruise and penetration modes.”

Cummings’ interpretation of the F-47 design at that time notably did not reflect his previous DP-21 concept. The X-44 design he mentioned is also known as the Multi-Axis No-Tail Aircraft (MANTA), and was derived from F-22. At least to our knowledge, the MANTA never came to be. The designation was recycled for an entirely unrelated flying wing-type drone, the existence of which was first reported by TWZ.

It’s also worth noting that the design in the newly emerged thermal video could be tied to one of many other programs, including uncrewed ones. Still, it is very much in line with what we would expect to see from a design related to the F-47 and it seems very likely this is the Boeing NGAD demonstrator, if the video is indeed authentic, which it appears to be.

It would be nice to say that we will have to wait and see whether this aircraft turns out to have a more traditional shovel-shaped nose, or even a mild Christmas tree-like design, but we may never see it again. Hopefully that is not the case, especially after the F-47 goes public, but the final design will have significant differences from its technology demonstrator forebears.

Special thanks to @ElectroFluidSys on X for bringing Darold Cummings’ posts on LinkedIn to our attention.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com