statistical

Dodgers Dugout: A statistical preview of the Dodgers-Braves NLDS

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. A good Tommy Lasorda quote: “You have got to love what you’re doing. No matter what it is. Whatever you undertake in life, if you don’t love it, and you don’t enjoy it, you are making a big mistake. You have got to love what you are doing. You have to appreciate what you are getting, and you have to do it to the best of your ability.”

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It’s that time of year

The Dodgers will face the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS starting Saturday, with Game 1 set to start at 1 p.m. Pacific, with the temperature forecast to be around 100 degrees. So, bring a sweater. People have complained that the 1 p.m. start is unfair because it will be too hot, but unless it is going to be 75 degrees on the Braves side of the field, it will be even. Personally, I would have put Padres-Brewers at 1 p.m. and Dodgers-Braves at 5:30 p.m., but no sense crying over spilled milk (Editor’s note: How many clichés can this guy work into one paragraph?)

The Dodgers faced the Braves six times during the season and lost five.

May 8
at Dodgers 3, Atlanta 1
Emmet Sheehan and five relievers combined to outpitch Braves ace Chris Sale. Freddie Freeman homered.

May 9
Atlanta 7, at Dodgers 2
Blake Snell gave up five runs in three innings and the Braves got 12 hits overall, 11 of them singles. Snell went back on the IL after the game, staying there for three months. Spencer Strider started for the Braves. He is currently on the IL.

May 10
Atlanta 7, at Dodgers 2
Justin Wrobleski took one for the team, giving up all seven Braves runs in 8 2/3 innings. Bryce Elder started for the Braves, going 5 2/3 innings. Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson homered for Atlanta.

Aug. 25
at Atlanta 4, Dodgers 3
Tyler Glasnow gave up three runs in five innings and Tanner Scott gave up the go-ahead run in the bottom of the eighth. Bryce Elder got the start for the Braves, giving up three runs in six innings. The teams combined for 19 hits, but only two extra-base hits.

Aug. 26
at Atlanta 6, Dodgers 5
Roki Sasaki gave up four runs in 3 1/3 innings, but Tanner Scott got the loss when he gave up a walk-off single to Ha-Seong Kim in the bottom of the ninth. AJ Smith-Shawyer started for the Braves, giving up three runs in five innings. Matt Olson and Sean Murphy homered for Atlanta, Tommy Edman for the Dodgers.

Aug. 27
at Atlanta 1, Dodgers 0
The only run came in the first inning by Drake Baldwin, Atlanta’s leadoff hitter. Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched 6 1/3 innings, giving up the lone run and four hits while striking out eight. Chris Sale pitched a shutout, giving up five hits and striking out 11.

Dodgers against the Braves this season

Batting
Hunter Feduccia, 3 for 5, 2 RBIs
Mookie Betts, .333/.429/.417, 14 plate appearances, 1 double, 1 RBIs
Teoscar Hernández, .333/.467/.333, 15 PA’s
Ben Rortvedt, 1 for 3
Andy Pages, .300/.364/.600, 11 PA’s, 1 homer, 2 RBIs
Tommy Edman, .273/.429/.636, 14 PA’s, 1 double, 1 homer, 3 RBIs
Alex Call, .273/.429/.364, 14 PA’s, 1 double, 1 RBI
Santiago Espinal, 1 for 5
Shohei Ohtani, .192/.192/.308, 26 PA’s, 1 double, 1 triple, 1 RBI
Freddie Freeman, .174/.240/.348, 25 PA’s, 1 double, 1 homer, 1 RBI
Will Smith, 1 for 7
Kyle Tucker, .133/.278/.200, 18 PA’s, 1 double, 1 RBI
Alek Thomas, 1 for 8, 1 RBI
Miguel Rojas, 1 for 8
Max Muncy, .118/.211/.294, 19 PA’s, 1 homer, 2 RBIs
Hyeseong Kim, 0 for 6
Kiké Hernández, 0 for 3
Alex Freeland, 0 for 7
Dalton Rushing, 0 for 5
Team, .196/.281/.299, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homers, 2.5 runs per game

Pitchers

Jack Dreyer, 0.00 ERA, 2.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 1 K
Brock Stewart, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 1 K
Alex Vesia, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.1 IP
Evan Phillips, 0.00 ERA, 1.1 IP, 1 hit, 1 K
Will Klein, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 hit,1 walk, 1 K
Kyle Hurt, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 2 hits, 1 K
Wyatt Mills, 0.00 ERA, 0.1 IP, 2 hits
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 0-1, 1.42 ERA, 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 8 K’s
Emmet Sheehan, 1.93 ERA, 4.2 IP. 6 hits, 1 walk, 7 K’s
Edgardo Henriquez, 2.70 ERA, 3.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 5 K’s
Paul Gervase, 3.00 ERA, 3 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 5 K’s
Eric Lauer, 4.50 ERA, 2 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 1 K
Tyler Glasnow, 5.40 ERA, 5 IP, 6 hits, 7 K’s
Tanner Scott, 0-2, 6.75 ERA, 1 save, 2.2 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 2 K’s
Justin Wrobleski, 0-1, 7.27 ERA, 8.2 IP, 7 hits, 1 walk, 7 K’s
Roki Sasaki, 10.80 ERA, 3.1 IP, 6 hits, 2 walks, 3 K’s
Blake Snell, 0-1, 12.00 ERA, 3 IP, 6 hits, 2 walks, 5 K’s
Team, 1-5. 4.35 ERA, 1 save, 51.2 IP, 57 hits,16 walks, 55 K’s

Braves vs. Dodgers this season

Batting

Jorge Mateo, 4 for 7, 1 RBI
Ha-Seong Kim, 2 for 4, 1 RBI
Dominic Smith, 2 for 5, 1 double
Eli White, 2 for 5, 1 RBI
Drake Baldwin, .364/.481/.727, 27 PA’s, 2 doubles, 2 homers, 5 RBIs
Michael Harris II, .348/.375/.391, 25 PA’s, 1 double, 2 RBIs
Jim Jarvis, 1 for 3
Mauricio Dubón, .280/.308/.320, 26 PA’s, 1 double, 4 RBIs
Matt Olson, .261/.320/.565, 25 PA’s, 1 double, 2 homers, 4 RBIs
Ozzie Albies, .250/.269/.250, 26 PA’s, 4 RBIs
Austin Riley, .238/.292/.286, 24 PA’s, 1 double, 3 RBIs
Sean Murphy, .214/.267/500, 15 PA’s, 1 double, 1 homer, 1 RBI
Lane Thomas, 1 for 7, 1 double
Ronald Acuña Jr., 1 for 9
Mike Yastrzesmki, .083/.154/.083, 13 PA’s
Kyle Farmer, 0 for 1
Team, .278.330/.395, 9 doubles, 5 homers, 4.33 runs per game

Pitching

Spencer Strider, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 1 hit, 2 walks, 8 K’s
Raisel Iglesias, 0.00 ERA, 1 save, 2 IP. 1 hit, 1 walk, 2 K’s
Didier Fuentes, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 1 hit, 3 walks, 1 K
Victor Mederos, 1-0. 0.00 ERA, 1.2 IP, 2 walks, 3 K’s
Dylan Dodd, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.1 IP, 1 hit
Robert Suarez, 0.00 ERA, 1.1 IP, 1 walk
Aaron Bummer, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP
Chris Sale, 1-1, 11.13 ERA, 16 IP, 10 hits, 18 K’s
Bryce Elder, 1-0, 2.31 ERA, 11.2 IP, 9 hits, 4 walks, 13 K’s
AJ Smith-Shawyer, 5.40 ERA, 5 IP, 5 hits, 3 walks, 3 K’s
Dylan Lee, 9.00 ERA, 2 IP, 5 hits, 1 walk
Reynaldo López, 9.00 ERA, 2 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 1 K
Tyler Kinley, 18.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 K
Team, 2.38 ERA, 53 IP, 38 hits, 19 walks, 50 K’s

How they compare

Let’s take a look at how the Dodgers and Braves compare this season:

Runs per game
Dodgers, 4.94 (fourth in the majors)
Atlanta, 4.58 (ninth)
League average, 4.48

Batting average
Dodgers, .257 (third)
Atlanta, .246 (11th)
League average, .244

On-base percentage
Dodgers, .338 (third)
League average, .318
Atlanta, .309 (28th)

Slugging percentage
Dodgers, .424 (second)
Atlanta, .409 (sixth)
League average, .400

Doubles
Dodgers, 266 (eighth)
Milwaukee, 251 (15th)
League average, 250

Triples
League average, 22
Dodgers, 18 (T19th)
Atlanta, 13 (29th)

Home runs
Dodgers, 204 (T7th)
Atlanta, 204 (T7th)
League average, 186

Stolen bases
League average, 110
Atlanta, 83 (T23rd)
Dodgers, 72 (27th)

Sacrifice bunts
League average, 23
Dodgers, 15 (T21st)
Atlanta, 11 (T26th)

Grounded into double play
Dodgers, 128 (third)
League average, 105
Atlanta, 89 (T27th)

ERA
Dodgers, 3.55 (fifth)
Atlanta, 3.63 (sixth)
League average, 4.17

Rotation ERA
Dodgers, 3.43 (second)
Atlanta, 3.76 (sixth)
League average, 4.24

Bullpen ERA
Atlanta, 3.44 (fourth)
Dodgers, 3.74 (ninth)
League average, 4.09

Pitcher strikeouts
Dodgers, 1,521 (fourth)
League average, 1,352
Atlanta, 1,350 (15th)

Pitcher walks
Dodgers, 480 (fourth fewest)
Atlanta, 529 (12th)
League average, 545

Home runs allowed
Dodgers, 172 (12th fewest)
Atlanta, 185 (17th)
League average, 186

Saves
Atlanta, 49 (T4th)
Dodgers, 46 (T7th)
League average, 42

Blown saves
League average, 23
Dodgers, 23 (T14th)
Atlanta, 20 (T21st)

Inherited runners who scored%
Atlanta, 20.9%, 36 of 172 (1st)
League average, 71 of 226, 31.4%
Dodgers, 35.8%, 69 of 174 (23rd)

The two teams are pretty evenly matched.

So who’s going to win?

The last NL team to win the World Series before the Dodgers? The Braves in 2021. They were led by some guy named Freeman.

If the Dodgers go into one of their team-wide funks, they could get swept. But here’s guessing they won’t do that in the postseason. It will be a tough series, but I’m going with…… Prediction: Dodgers in 5.

Poll results

We asked, “Which two of these four players would you pick to be on the postseason roster?”

After 18,543 votes:

Josue DePaula, 94.3%
Alex Call, 64.6%
Hyeseong Kim, 35.1%
Dalton Rushing, 6%

Up next

Saturday: Atlanta at Dodgers, 1 p.m., Fox, AM 570, KTNQ 1020
Sunday: Atlanta at Dodgers, 5 p.m., FS1, AM 570, KTNQ 1020
Tuesday: Dodgers at Atlanta, 3 p.m., FS1, AM 570, KTNQ 1020
*Wednesday: Dodgers at Atlanta, 3 p.m., FS1, AM 570, KTNQ 1020
*Friday: Atlanta at Dodgers, 5 p.m., Fox, AM 570, KTNQ 1020

All times Pacific

*-if necessary

In case you missed it

‘We are the team to beat’: How the Dodgers are preparing for showdown with Braves

Nine concerns the Dodgers should have about facing the Braves in the NLDS

Shaikin: ‘Hired gun’ Tarik Skubal opens up on the pressure, pain and lessons of October

And finally

Freddie Freeman hits a walk-off home run in the 18th inning to win Game 3 of the 2025 World Series. Watch and listen here.

Until next time …

Have a comment or something you’d like to see in a future Dodgers newsletter? Email me at houston.mitchell@latimes.com. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

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