SpaceX is set for the largest stock market debut ever.
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Elon Musk’s rocket company begins trading on the Nasdaq on Friday under the ticker SPCX. The company priced its shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion (€64.5bn) and valuing the business at $1.75 trillion (€1.5trn) in the biggest stock market flotation on record.
The deal would comfortably eclipse Saudi Aramco’s previous record of $29.4bn, set in 2019 and later increased through an overallotment option.
SpaceX made an unusually strong push to attract retail investors, including those in Europe. According to Bloomberg, individual investors placed roughly $100bn (€86.6bn) in orders through trading platforms including Robinhood, Fidelity and SoFi during the IPO process.
That demand alone exceeded the company’s $75bn (€64.5bn) fundraising target, underscoring the level of interest from smaller investors ahead of the stock market debut.
Yet beneath the hype, several warning lights are flashing. Here are five risks investors should weigh before the SpaceX IPO goes live.
1. Is SpaceX worth $1.75tn?
At a valuation of $1.75tn (€1.5trn), investors would be valuing SpaceX at roughly 94 times its annual revenue, which was $18.7bn (€16.1bn) in 2025. By comparison, Nvidia — one of the market’s most highly valued technology companies — trades at less than a quarter of that level.
The investment research firm Morningstar, which values the company at $780bn (€675bn), called it “significantly overvalued” while Goldman Sachs data suggests sustaining the share price would require revenues above $100bn (€86.6bn) by 2030, implying a compound annual growth of more than 40%.
History offers a note of caution. Research by University of Florida professor Jay Ritter, often referred to as “Mr IPO”, found that while IPOs between 2012 and 2021 rose an average of 23.6% on their first day of trading, they returned just 10.6% over the following three years.
2. Fast-tracked into indexes and supported by a small float
SpaceX’s expected inclusion in major stock indexes has become a point of controversy. Investment officials from four large US states have urged Nasdaq and FTSE Russell to explain recent rule changes that could accelerate the company’s entry into widely tracked benchmarks.
Critics argue the move could expose passive investors to a highly valued stock sooner than expected, while the index providers say the changes reflect broader market developments.
The debate matters because relatively few SpaceX shares will initially be available for trading. Although SpaceX is valued at $1.75tr (€1.5trn), only around 3% to 4% of its shares will initially be available for public trading.
That means the company’s market value will be determined by trading in a relatively small portion of its equity. Reports suggest more than 75% of the $75bn (€64.5bn) offering has already been allocated to existing investors and insiders, leaving fewer shares available on the open market.
According to Morningstar, the limited float and strong demand for artificial intelligence-related stocks could help support the share price in the early stages of trading, even if the company is valued above what the research firm considers fair value. The firm argues that a clearer picture of investor demand may emerge once lock-up restrictions expire and more shares become available for trading.
Some analysts, however, believe the limited float could continue to support the stock. Estimates suggest between $22 billion (€19bn) and $27 billion (€23.4bn) of passive investment could flow into SpaceX once it joins the Nasdaq 100, creating additional demand from index-tracking funds.
3. Losses, not profits
SpaceX’s financial results may also give investors pause.
The prospectus shows that the company is growing rapidly but still losing money.
The company owns the Starlink satellite internet service, which generates most of its revenue and is its only profitable business. It also owns the artificial intelligence company xAI, which merged with SpaceX in February.
According to the filing, SpaceX carried an accumulated deficit of $41.3bn (€35.76bn) as of 31 March and reported a net loss of $4.27bn (€3.7bn) in the first quarter of 2026.
This compares with $528mn (€457mn) in the same period a year earlier.
Much of the recent loss stems from xAI. According to SpaceX’s IPO filing, the AI business recorded an operating loss of about $6.4 billion (€5.5bn) in 2025. The filing also showed xAI spent heavily in the opening months of 2026 as it expanded its AI infrastructure.
Morningstar argues the AI unit “poses a material threat of value destruction”, noting that Grok has yet to win meaningful market share against rival chatbots.
Supporters counter that the losses are a choice, not a structural flaw.
Revenue climbed 33% to $18.7bn (€16.2bn) in 2025, up from $14.1 billion (€12.2bn) a year earlier. The underlying launch and satellite business was profitable as recently as 2024. The deficits largely reflect heavy investment in AI infrastructure, spending that supporters say is already beginning to be offset by new compute contracts.
4. The AI growth gamble
Supporters argue investors are paying for future growth rather than current profits.
Starlink remains the company’s main source of revenue, while its artificial intelligence business is expected to play a larger role in the years ahead.
Bulls also point to SpaceX’s dominant position in rocket launches and satellite communications, arguing the company is uniquely placed to benefit from growing demand for connectivity, computing power and AI infrastructure.
SpaceX conducts more rocket launches annually than the rest of the world combined and counts over nine million Starlink subscribers, but its newest growth driver is the AI data-centre business acquired through the xAI merger.
Last Friday, Google agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million (€796.6mn) per month for compute capacity at xAI data centres, in a 32-month deal running from October 2026 through June 2029, and covering access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs.
That followed a May agreement under which Anthropic pays $1.25 billion (€1.08bn) a month to rent the entire output of the Colossus 1 data centre until May 2029, putting combined annualised compute revenue at around $26 billion (€22.5bn).
Bulls argue this contracted income, won in under four months, shows how quickly the company can monetise its infrastructure. Sceptics note that both contracts carry 90-day termination clauses after December 2026, and that Google itself has framed the arrangement as “bridge capacity” rather than a permanent commitment.
5. The Elon Musk-sized risk
SpaceX’s success is closely tied to Elon Musk, whose profile and track record have helped attract investors, customers and business partners. That creates what investors call “key-person risk” — concerns about how the company would fare if he were no longer leading it.
The company’s governance structure reinforces that dependence. Musk’s super-voting Class B shares give him around 85% of voting power, leaving outside shareholders with little influence over major corporate decisions. In practice, that means no one but Musk himself can determine whether he remains chief executive.
Critics also point to SpaceX’s incorporation in Texas, where only investors holding at least 3% of shares can bring derivative lawsuits. The Danish academic pension fund AkademikerPension has blacklisted the stock, describing the governance structure as “catastrophic”.
Supporters argue that dual-class share structures are common among US technology firms, including Meta and Alphabet. They say concentrated voting control allows founders to pursue long-term goals without pressure from short-term investors.
Musk’s prominence also brings political risk. US Senator Elizabeth Warren has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to scrutinise the listing, warning that future index inclusion could expose millions of passive investors to the stock without them actively choosing it.
Others note that the SEC completed its review faster than expected, allowing the IPO process to move ahead without delay and suggesting regulators see no immediate obstacle to the listing.
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