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There’s one piece of news seniors on Social Security have been itching to get for months now — news of an official cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for 2026.

At this point, it’s pretty clear that 2026 is not going to be one of those 0% COLA years. Though there have been 0% COLAs in the past, inflation has risen enough to date that experts can say with confidence that Social Security benefits will, indeed, be going up in the new year. The question is by how much.

Image source: Getty Images.

Current estimates seem to be floating in the 2.7% to 2.8% range. But we won’t know what next year’s COLA is for sure until the Social Security Administration makes its big announcement.

That said, Social Security’s upcoming COLA is probably going to be bad news no matter what it actually amounts to. It’s important to understand why — and take steps to work around that.

Why Social Security’s upcoming COLA probably won’t cut it

There’s a reason not to get too excited about Social Security’s 2026 COLA. That reason boils down to the fact that Social Security COLAs have been failing seniors for decades.

In fact, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, says that seniors on Social Security lost 20% of their buying power between 2010 and 2024 due to insufficient COLAs. So chances are, next year’s COLA won’t keep up with inflation, either.

The problem stems from how Social Security COLAs are calculated. They’re based on annual third-quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers.

Now, let’s look at that index’s name carefully. Notice the terms “urban,” “wage earners,” and “clerical workers.” Do those describe the typical Social Security recipient?

It’s true that plenty of retirees reside in cities. But that’s certainly not a given. In fact, many retirees are able to move outside of cities to lower their costs once they no longer have to worry about proximity to a job.

Many Social Security recipients, by nature, are also not workers. They’re retired. So it’s pretty silly to base Social Security COLAs on an index that measures the costs a different subset of people face.

Advocates have been pushing to base Social Security COLAs on the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or CPI-E. But lawmakers haven’t exactly been jumping to make that change, so it’s not one to expect anytime soon.

Prepare to be disappointed now

No matter what raise Social Security recipients end up eligible for in 2026, chances are, it won’t cut it. Plus, if you’re on Medicare as well, any increase in the cost of Part B will eat away at your COLA.

If you want to improve your financial picture for 2026, you can’t sit back and wait for your COLA to take effect for that to happen. Instead, you should take matters into your own hands.

Here are some specific steps to take:

• Do a thorough review of your retirement budget
• Identify a few expenses you can reduce or even eliminate
• Explore options for going back to work, whether as an hourly employee or a gig worker
• See if it’s possible to downsize your home or rent out a room for income
• Explore moving in with a family member if money is very tight
• Review your Medicare plan choices carefully during open enrollment to lower your healthcare costs

There may be other steps you can take to improve your finances, too, and it’s worth exploring them. What you don’t want to do is assume that your Social Security COLA will be the solution to your financial problems.

Even if Social Security’s 2026 COLA is more generous than expected, chances are good that it won’t do the job of keeping up with inflation that it’s supposed to. The sooner you’re able to accept that, the sooner you can start making positive changes that have a real effect.

WASHINGTON — President Trump said Friday that he’s placing an additional 100% tax on Chinese imports starting on Nov. 1 or sooner, potentially escalating tariff rates close to levels that in April fanned fears of a steep recession and financial market chaos.

The president said on his social media site that he is imposing these new tariffs because of export controls placed on rare earth elements by China. The new tariffs built on an earlier post Friday on Truth Social in which Trump said that “there seems to be no reason” to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as part of an upcoming trip to South Korea.

Trump said that “starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying.”

The announcement after financial markets closed on Friday risked throwing the global economy into turmoil. Not only would the global trade war instigated by Trump be rekindled at dangerous levels, but import taxes being heaped on top of the 30% already being levied on Chinese goods could, by the administration’s past statements, cause trade to break down between the U.S. and China.

While Trump’s wording was definitive, he is also famously known for backing down from threats, such that some investors began engaging in what The Financial Times called the “TACO” trade, which stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The prospect of tariffs this large could compound the president’s own political worries inside the U.S., potentially pushing up inflation at a moment when the job market appears fragile and the drags from a government shutdown are starting to compound into layoffs of federal workers.

The president also said that the U.S. government would respond to China by putting its own export controls “on any and all critical software” from American firms.

It’s possible that this could amount to either posturing by the United States for eventual negotiations or a retaliatory step that could foster new fears about the stability of the global economy.

The United States and China have been jostling for advantage in trade talks, after the import taxes announced earlier this year triggered a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Both nations agreed to ratchet down tariffs after negotiations in Switzerland and the United Kingdom, yet tensions remain as China has continued to restrict America’s access to the difficult-to-mine rare earths needed for a wide array of U.S. technologies.

Trump did not formally cancel the meeting with Xi, so much as indicating that it might not happen as part of a trip at the end of the month in Asia. The trip was scheduled to include a stop in Malaysia, which is hosting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit; a stop in Japan; and a visit to South Korea, where he was slated to meet with Xi ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

“I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so,” Trump posted.

Trump’s threat shattered a monthslong calm on Wall Street, and the S&P 500 tumbled 2.7% on worries about the rising tensions between the world’s largest economies. It was the market’s worst day since April when the president last bandied about import taxes this high. Still, the stock market closed before the president spelled out the terms of his threat.

China’s new restrictions

On Thursday, the Chinese government restricted access to the rare earths ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting. Beijing would require foreign companies to get special approval for shipping the metallic elements abroad. It also announced permitting requirements on exports of technologies used in the mining, smelting and recycling of rare earths, adding that any export requests for products used in military goods would be rejected.

Trump said that China is “becoming very hostile” and that it’s holding the world “captive” by restricting access to the metals and magnets used in electronics, computer chips, lasers, jet engines and other technologies.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to an Associated Press request for comment.

Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, said Beijing reacted to U.S. sanctions of Chinese companies this week and the upcoming port fees targeting China-related vessels but said there’s room for deescalation to keep the leaders’ meeting alive. “It is a disproportional reaction,” Sun said. “Beijing feels that deescalation will have to be mutual as well. There is room for maneuver, especially on the implementation.”

The U.S. president said the move on rare earths was “especially inappropriate” given the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza so that the remaining hostages from Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack can be released. He raised the possibility without evidence that China was trying to steal the moment from him for his role in the ceasefire, saying on social media, “I wonder if that timing was coincidental?”

There is already a backlog of export license applications from Beijing’s previous round of export controls on rare earth elements, and the latest announcements “add further complexity to the global supply chain of rare earth elements,” the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said in a statement.

Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., said China signaled it is open to negotiations, but it also holds leverage because to dominates the market for rare earths with 70% of the mining and 93% of the production of permanent magnets made from them that are crucial to high-tech products and the military.

“These restrictions undermine our ability to develop our industrial base at a time when we need to. And then second, it’s a powerful negotiating tool,” she said. And these restrictions can hurt efforts to strengthen the U.S. military in the midst of global tensions because rare earths are needed.

Trump’s trade war

The outbreak of a tariff-fueled trade war between the U.S. and China initially caused the world economy to shudder over the possibility of global commerce collapsing. Trump imposed tariffs totaling 145% on Chinese goods, with China responding with import taxes of 125% on American products.

The taxes were so high as to effectively be a blockade on trade between the countries. That led to negotiations that reduced the tariff charged by the U.S. government to 30% and the rate imposed by China to 10% so that further talks could take place. The relief those lower rates provided could now disappear with the new import taxes Trump threatened, likely raising the stakes not only of whether Trump and Xi meet but how any disputes are resolved.

Differences continue over America’s access to rare earths from China, U.S. restrictions on China’s ability to import advanced computer chips, sales of American-grown soybeans and a series of tit-for-tat port fees being levied by both countries starting on Tuesday.

Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon said “China has not been a fair-trade partner for years,” but the Trump administration should have anticipated China’s restrictions on rare earths and refusal to buy American soybeans in response to the tariffs.

How analysts see moves by U.S. and China

Wendy Cutler, senior vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Trump’s post shows the fragility of the détente between the two countries and it’s unclear whether the two sides are willing to de-escalate to save the bilateral meeting.

Cole McFaul, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, said that Trump appeared in his post to be readying for talks on the possibility that China had overplayed its hand. By contrast, China sees itself as having come out ahead when the two countries have engaged in talks.

“From Beijing’s point of view, they’re in a moment where they’re feeling a lot of confidence about their ability to handle the Trump administration,” McFaul said. “Their impression is they’ve come to the negotiating table and extracted key concessions.”

Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank, said Trump’s post could “mark the beginning of the end of the tariff truce” that had lowered the tax rates charged by both countries.

It’s still unclear how Trump intends to follow through on his threats and how China plans to respond.

“But the risk is clear: Mutually assured disruption between the two sides is no longer a metaphor,” Singleton said. “Both sides are reaching for their economic weapons at the same time, and neither seems willing to back down.”

Boak and Tang write for the Associated Press. AP writers Stan Choe in New York and Josh Funk in Omaha, Neb., contributed to the report.

Rob Manfred normally does what many fans consider an annoyingly effective job of keeping Major League Baseball’s strategic plans out of the public square.

So maybe the MLB commissioner was caught in an unguarded moment, staring down at a diamond from the ESPN “Sunday Night Baseball” booth in the cozy confines of Williamsport, Pa., and the Little League World Series.

Or maybe his comments were calculated. Either way, he spoke freely about how expanding from the current 30 teams could create an ideal chance to reset the way teams are aligned in divisions and leagues.

Manfred was asked on air for a window into the future. Expansion, realignment, both?

“The first two topics are related, in my mind,” he replied. “I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically realign. I think we could save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel. And I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN, because you’d be playing out of the East and out of the West.”

Taking that thinking to an extreme would put the Dodgers and Angels in a division with, say, the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Las Vegas Athletics and Seattle Mariners.

Would that collection — let’s call it the Pacific Division — be part of the American or National League? Maybe neither. Instead, geographic realignment could result in Eastern and Western Conferences similar to the NBA.

Pushback from traditionalists might be vigorous. Call them leagues, call them conferences, geographical realignment would make for some strange bedfellows.

Former MLB player and current MLB Network analyst Cameron Maybin posted on X that making sure the divisions are balanced is more important than geography.

“Manfred’s realignment talk isn’t just about moving teams around, it tilts playoff balance,” Maybin said on X. “Some divisions get watered down others overloaded and rivalries that drive October story lines we love, vanish. Baseball needs competitive integrity not manufactured shakeups.”

Yet Manfred makes a persuasive argument that grouping teams by geographic location would have its benefits.

“That 10 o’clock time slot where we sometimes get lost in Anaheim would be two West Coast teams,” he said. “Then that 10 o’clock spot that’s a problem for us becomes an opportunity for our West Coast audience. I think the owners realize there is a demand for Major League Baseball in a lot of great cities, and we have an opportunity to do something good around that expansion process.”

Manfred said in February that he’d like expansion to be approved by 2029, his last year as commissioner. MLB hasn’t expanded since the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays were added in 1998.

Expansion teams “won’t be playing by the time I’m done, but I would like the process along and [locations] selected,” Manfred said.

Several cities are courting MLB for a franchise, and the league is reported to be leaning toward Nashville and Salt Lake City as favorites. Portland, Orlando, San Antonio and Charlotte are other possibilities.

The Times’ Bill Shaikin has pointed out that geographical realignment would be tied to schedule reform that could help kindle rivalries and encourage fans to visit opposing ballparks that are within driving distance.

The future home of the Rays is in flux, and that decision likely will precede MLB choosing expansion cities, even after the recent news that Florida developer Patrick Zalupski has agreed to pay $1.7 billion for the team.

Zalupski’s team of investors reportedly prefers to keep the Rays near Tampa. If that becomes gospel, MLB can turn its attention to choosing where new teams would call home.

And soon afterward, if Manfred’s vision comes to fruition, geographical realignment would follow, and the Southern California Freeway Series could become just another series between divisional rivals.

ONE shopper has said they’re glad they didn’t get to a Morrisons sale any sooner after the retailer slashed the price of garden furniture.

The customer timed their visit to coincide with a 25 per cent price cut on a garden furniture set for members signed up to its rewards scheme.

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The Nutmeg Outdoor Sofa Set from Morrisons is now selling for £18 less than usual.

That is, if you’re signed up to Morrisons More Card scheme.

The More Card scheme offers money off specific items at Morrisons, using the More App which shows offers.

Members can also find printed coupons at the check out to use on price savings.

And right now, the scheme can be used to grab a cracking outdoor sofa set for just £72.

It’s just in time for summer, as you can make full use of it straight away to your vitamin D fix in.

The set consists of two single chairs, and a double sofa – perfect for hosting a get together with friends or family in the garden.

One happy shopper on Facebook celebrated not buying the set any earlier, so she could make full use of the deal.

She said: “Glad now I didn’t manage to get to Morrisons sooner.

“I got an extra 25% off with More Card, so I paid £54 – bargain!”

Another happy punter who appears to have got there a bit sooner, added: “We got this a couple of years ago still going strong.”

This comes as Morrisons has launched a huge summer clearance sale on a range of garden products.

An eager shopper who spotted the offer at her local Morrisons shared the deal on the Extreme Couponing and Bargains UK Facebook page.

Other customers quickly expressed their excitement as they ran to make the most of the affordable prices.

Some of the items on offer had even had their price slashed by 50 per cent.

It included the Nutmeg Outdoor three-piece bistro set for £50, reduced from £100.

The product comes with a table and two chairs featuring comfortable cushions, helping you get your garden summer-ready on a budget.

If you’re needing a more heavy-duty umbrella set up, they’ve also got a parasol base weight for just £35.

Those looking to splash a bit more cash might be interested in Morrisons’ hanging egg chair.

For £95 – reduced from £140 – it’s a great centrepiece for your garden.

Now that your garden is well-equipped to host, it’s time to stock up on barbecue supplies.

For just £8 Morrisons are selling a convenient portable barbecue.

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The most important pitches for the Dodgers on Tuesday came long before the start of their game that night.

In the second of a key three-game series against the San Diego Padres, the Dodgers found themselves in an uncomfortably familiar position: Lacking an available starting pitcher amid a wave of early-season injuries, and turning instead to a collection of minor league arms thrust into big league duty; set to open the game with Lou Trivino, and then have Matt Sauer pitch bulk innings.

It’s not what the Dodgers envisioned entering the year, when they expected to have a rotation of potential All-Stars on the mound every day.

It was eerily similar to the circumstances they faced last October –– their Game 4, elimination-staving win against the Padres in last year’s National League Division Series, specifically.

Earlier Tuesday, however, the Dodgers had reasons for optimism: These current circumstances might not last much longer.

Hours before the game, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell took notable steps in their recovery from injuries.

For the first time in a while, they could start to see light at the end of the pitching tunnel.

On the Petco Park mound, Ohtani threw the third live batting practice in his continued recovery from a 2023 Tommy John surgery, hurling 44 pitches over three simulated innings while racking up six strikeouts against a pair of rookie league hitters from the organization.

Back in Los Angeles, Glasnow threw the third bullpen session of his recovery from a shoulder inflammation injury, and could be getting close to facing live hitters himself in the near future.

And after Ohtani finished his session in San Diego, Snell threw 15 pitches in the bullpen, his first full bullpen session since suffering a setback in his recovery from shoulder inflammation back in April.

“Really encouraging,” manager Dave Roberts said. “You can start to see us get to the other side. It’s stuff to look forward to.”

Ohtani’s live session was the day’s biggest development. He made a significant jump in workload, going from the 29 pitches he threw two weekends ago at Dodger Stadium to a 44-pitch outing Tuesday that concluded with 23 throws in his third and final inning. But, after battling poor command in his previous live BP, he showed increased consistency and sharpness with all of his pitches, giving up just a ground-ball single and a lone walk while including 15 swings-and-misses with a variety of offerings.

“It wasn’t just pure power and velocity,” pitching coach Mark Prior said of Ohtani, whose fastball averaged around 94-96 mph. “He got some swing-and-misses on his off-speed pitches. He’s being able to keep guys off balance and mess up their timing. There’s different types of misses. I think from that standpoint, those are good things.”

Roberts came away so encouraged, he even hinted at a more optimistic timeline for when Ohtani –– who hasn’t pitched in a big league game since August 2023 –– might be able to join the team’s active rotation, saying the chances are “north of zero” that the right-hander could return before the All-Star break.

In recent weeks, Roberts had said Ohtani wouldn’t be back until after the Midsummer Classic.

“It’s tempting,” Roberts said. “I’m sure Shohei feels tempted to just kind of rip the Band-Aid off and get into a big league game. But I think we’re doing a good job of being patient. And truth be told, I don’t think anyone knows the right time to get him in a big league game. We’re still being very careful, I guess.”

Another notable development from Roberts on Tuesday: Ohtani might not have to complete “a full build-up” before pitching in big league games.

“Anything he can give us is certainly additive,” Roberts said, an idea underscored by Ohtani’s two-way player status, which would effectively make him an extra arm on the Dodgers’ staff without counting against their 13-pitcher roster max.

“I still stand by him, and [head team physician] Dr. [Neal] ElAttrache and the training staff are going to drive this,” said Roberts, who wasn’t sure when Ohtani would throw his next live session. “I’m just anxious for the next one.”

Glasnow and Snell have more steps to complete in their comebacks, from their own live sessions to likely minor league rehab stints.

Prior also noted that those two will have to be more fully built up before they are activated, given the already overworked state of the Dodgers’ bullpen.

Still, Snell said after two months of lingering shoulder pain earlier this year, the breakthrough he has experienced in the last two weeks has renewed his confidence about how he’ll perform when he returns.

“I’m very excited,” he said after throwing at about 70% intensity level in his 15-pitch bullpen. “After this ‘pen, the ramp up is gonna start, and I can start pitching, and I know I’m gonna be a factor on the team again.”

Prior offered similar encouragement with Glasnow’s recent work, noting his fastball is up to 95-96 mph.

“Everything looks good,” Prior said of Glasnow. “He really has been feeling good and the ball has been coming out really good.”

In the meantime, the Dodgers will have to continue to tread water. They currently have only four healthy starters in the rotation between Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Justin Wrobleski. And though Emmet Sheehan could be an option to return from his own Tommy John surgery after one more start in his minor league rehab next week, the recent loss of Tony Gonsolin –– and continued absence of Roki Sasaki, who has yet to progress past light catch play –– has only further limited the club’s pitching options.

That’s why, even on a day the Dodgers were patching together a pitching plan once again, they were finally feeling hopeful about the long-term state of their staff.

Ohtani, Snell and Glasnow are finally making strides toward returning.

The star-studded pitching staff the club had been planning for this season might soon become a reality once again.