smash

With Tesla’s (TSLA 1.32%) core electric vehicle business struggling this year, analysts and investors were anxious to get a glance at how EV deliveries would trend in the third quarter. The company delivered big time, reporting close to 497,100 deliveries, smashing Wall Street estimates of of 447,600. However, Tesla’s stock dipped immediately following the news, as the strong beat was not enough to excite Wall Street. What gives?

Expiration of the EV tax credit

Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries of nearly 497,100 blew out estimates and rose 7% year over year. That’s a sharp reversal from the first two quarters of 2025, when the company reported deliveries that fell 12% year over year compared to the first half of 2024.

Image source: Tesla.

But analysts clearly knew the quarter was going to be strong because President Trump’s big legislative spending bill passed by Congress earlier this year eliminated the $7,500 EV tax credit on Sept. 30, the last day of the third quarter. It became evident that consumers would likely rush to purchase Teslas before the cost of the vehicles increased.

According to Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, Tesla saw a 35% year-over-year increase in its U.S. sales in the third quarter, which he attributes to the rush before the EV tax credit expiration. “Investors should largely throw out the positive number,” Munster said, noting that the “the future will be autonomy.”

Still, other analysts were more optimistic. Morgan Stanley analyst said that Q3 deliveries came in at the top end of hedge fund estimates ranging from 450,000 to 500,000 deliveries. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives called the quarter a “massive bounceback” and said he is still high on the company’s autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics businesses, which Ives and Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt think could catapult Tesla to a $2 trillion to $3 trillion market cap by 2026 or 2027.

Ultimately, I’m guessing the disappointing share action could be attributed to Tesla stock’s recent run-up. The stock is up close to 60% over the past six months.

Current state of the bull-bear debate

Tesla is still one of if not the most hotly debated stocks on Wall Street, with the bulls confident that it is the most innovative AI company in the world and the bears pointing to its staggering valuation of nearly 250 times forward earnings. As of this writing, Tesla trades at nearly $440 per share. The lowest Wall Street price target is an astounding $19 per share, while the high is $600 per share, which shows just how split the Street is on the name.

But one thing I think both the bulls and bears agree on is that the future of Tesla is going to come down to its autonomous driving business, for which Tesla is in the early stages of building out an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, and the humanoid robots business. If these businesses are as successful as analysts like Ives believe, than the stock can keep moving higher. But hiccups or a more competitive market than people think could send it tumbling.

Tesla has begun to launch pilot autonomous driving programs in select cities, while humanoid robots are still in prototype stage. The advantage of Tesla’s robotaxi business is that the vehicles can reportedly be built at a fraction of the cost of rival WayMo, which is also operating in several cities. However, it remains to be seen whether the technology can truly be perfected and deemed safe enough to be fully commercialized.

The simple reason I choose to avoid Tesla is that I think the market has assumed too much success in businesses that the public still knows far too little about. If Tesla is successful and jumps to $600 per share, that’s 40% upside, but if robotaxis and humanoid robots don’t work out as well as hoped, who knows that the stock is worth. As stocks get larger and surpass a $1 trillion market cap, maintaining the growth to hold such a high valuation becomes more difficult. The risk-reward proposition is not attractive to me.

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Coldplay

Who has played the most shows at Wembley Stadium?

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Coldplay

Coldplay setlist

It was bound to happen sometime. This year, the most important Hollywood movie of the key summer season didn’t start its quest for world domination in movie theaters. It came out on Netflix.

“KPop Demon Hunters,” the cartoon musical about a girl group using catchy tunes to keep evil at bay, has become a viral phenomenon since it launched on the streamer June 20. With 210 million views globally so far, it’s the most watched animated movie ever on Netflix, and is expected to soon top “Red Notice” as the company’s most popular film.

That should be no surprise at this point. Unlike many previous widely watched Netflix movies, “KPop” — produced by Culver City-based Sony Pictures Animation — has penetrated the cultural zeitgeist, leading to gushing from millennial parents’ group chats including mine, chart-topping songs and, of course, memes galore.

To keep the momentum going, Netflix took the unusual step of putting the movie in theaters weeks after its streaming debut.

“KPop Demon Hunters” sing-along screenings played in more than 1,750 locations domestically to packed houses, with more than 1,150 sold-out showings, though it did not play in AMC cineplexes. It was the No. 1 movie in theaters, scoring in the ballpark of $18 million in ticket sales, according to industry sources, enough to top the third weekend of Zach Cregger’s horror hit “Weapons.” Netflix released the sing-along version of “KPop Demon Hunters” for streaming on Monday.

Netflix, as is its typical practice, did not report actual box office grosses, so the counts for its first No. 1 box office hit aren’t official. Nonetheless, theater operators were clearly relieved to have the movie, even if for only two days. The August box office doldrums are in full swing, with little to cheer about from the traditional studios.

The summer blockbuster season is expected to end with about $3.5 billion in total revenue from the first weekend of May through Labor Day, according to analysts, which would be either roughly flat or slightly down from last year’s thin slate. More than $4 billion is considered normal or healthy by pre-pandemic standards.

The biggest hit this summer was Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch,” a live-action remake that collected $422 million in the U.S. and Canada and more than $1 billion globally. Last summer, two movies topped $600 million: Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” and Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine,” both of which were Disney titles.

Netflix has had a tense relationship with the theatrical business since it first got into making movies. The company puts movies in cinemas for limited runs as part of marketing efforts, awards campaigns and as a way to appease filmmakers who prefer the big-screen experience. Co-Chief Executive Ted Sarandos earlier this year called the theatrical business “outdated” for most people, citing weak box office numbers after the COVID-19 closures.

Indeed, theatrical attendance has shrunk even more than the top-line revenue figures suggest, with shortfalls partly papered over by increases in ticket prices over the years.

When Scott Stuber ran Netflix’s film business, he pushed the company to do more with theaters because auteur directors wanted it. The film side is now run by Dan Lin.

People who advocate for the multiplex keep hoping that some event will persuade Netflix that its theory is wrong — that something like the “KPop Demon Hunters” screenings or next year’s Imax rollout for Greta Gerwig’s upcoming “Narnia” project will prove that Sarandos is mistaken and theatrical windows will actually benefit Netflix beyond using them as promotional ploys.

Rivals say their movies do better on streaming services when they’re already theatrical hits, a theme repeated by the new owners of Paramount who are trying to grow their direct-to-consumer business.

But if anything, Netflix is digging in.

The company sees the success of “KPop,” along with the recent release of “Happy Gilmore 2,” as proof that movies can resonate culturally without theaters and the massive advertising budgets necessary to open a film on 4,000 domestic screens. The Adam Sandler-starring sequel scored 46.7 million views in its first three days on the service and set a Nielsen record for the most-watched streaming movie in a single week.

Netflix has long faced skepticism from Hollywood over its film business, which can put up big viewership with movies like “Red Notice” and “The Adam Project” that seem to vanish from audiences’ consciousness without a trace.

We kind of already knew that movies, particularly animated musicals aimed at kids, could find a big audience online without being a theatrical smash. “Encanto,” released in November 2021 during the pandemic and the Bob Chapek era, did paltry box office by modern Disney standards but became a phenomenon when its Lin-Manuel Miranda-penned songs took off on social media.

When kids latch onto something, they watch it repeatedly, and they don’t care if it’s been in theaters or not. If the movie is good and relevant to them, it can work regardless of the release strategy.

Would “KPop Demon Hunters” have worked if it had been released in theaters exclusively? Who knows. If it had opened to modest box office results, as animated original movies tend to do lately, it would have immediately been written off as a disappointment. Instead, it stayed on the Netflix top 10 lists for weeks and climbed the Nielsen rankings because of word of mouth.

Part of its success is that the movie feels very “now,” whereas animated films sometimes aim for timelessness. It’s culturally specific, with universal themes (friendship and young people’s need to belong) that have powered Disney blockbusters for decades. A colleague of mine aptly described it as a sort of “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” meets “Frozen.” Its music is current and rides the wave of everything influenced by South Korean pop culture.

Will it have the enduring influence of the “Frozen” franchise or “Moana,” movies that started primarily as properties for girls but became touchstones for a broader audience? Perhaps not, but it does give Netflix another data point to validate its streaming movie strategy.

Stuff we wrote

Number of the week

Even $3-trillion Apple isn’t immune to streaming inflation.

Apple TV+, home of series including “The Studio” and “Ted Lasso,” is raising its subscription price by $3 to $12.99 a month, following the lead of other streamers chasing better returns.

Finally …

Read: I’m listening to the audiobook of Blink-182 bassist Mark Hoppus’ “Fahrenheit-182.” A must for this San Diego native.

Open champion Scheffler showed his mettle and class – despite a few uncharacteristic slips – on his way to a three-under-par 67, taking him to 15 under for the week.

MacIntyre, runner-up at the US Open and tied for seventh at the Open, had been 16 under on Saturday evening after rounds of 62, 64 and 68.

The Scotsman denied he was rattled by his playing partner’s consistency, while he chose not to comment on apparent heckling from the galleries.

Asked what he needs to improve, he replied: “Right now, not a clue. Right now I want to go and smash up my golf clubs, to be honest with you.”

There was a glimmer of hope for an out-of-sorts MacIntyre when he moved to within a shot after the 12th, Scheffler missing a routine par putt.

But the Scotsman crashed an eight iron off the tee at the 13th to go over the green and a fourth bogey soon followed, only for Scheffler to make a mess of the next.

At the 15th, the American rolled in a birdie after watching MacIntyre miss his attempt but the roles were then reversed at the 16th.

Scheffler saved his best for the 17th, with an incredible chip-in from the greenside that rolled serenely into the hole to send the partisan crowd wild, giving himself breathing space for an 18th PGA Tour success.

For months, Donald Trump and his deportation dream team — border czar Tom Homan, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and Homeland Security head Kristi Noem — have warned any city, state or county that seems even somewhat sympathetic to illegal immigrants that their day of reckoning will come.

For Los Angeles, it’s now.

Since Friday, the city and its suburbs have seen federal officers from various agencies face off against protesters who have unsuccessfully tried to stop them from conducting workplace raids or transport people suspected of being in this country illegally to detention facilities.

The scenes haven’t been pretty.

Federal agents have used flash-bang grenades and tear gas to disperse crowds from Paramount to downtown to the Garment District. They even arrested SEIU California President David Huerta for allegedly blocking a federal vehicle. Protesters, meanwhile, have fought back with rocks, bottles and fireworks. A row of Waymos was set on fire near Olvera Street on Sunday afternoon, emitting an eerie swan song of honks. A fleet of Highway Patrol vehicles parked near a 101 freeway underpass was pelted by protesters from above with cement shards, e-scooters and even paper set on fire.

In the proverbial thick of it are the Los Angeles police and L.A. County Sheriff’s departments, whose leaders have continuously stressed that their agencies aren’t involved in any immigration actions even as they have assisted la migra by keeping crowds away with batons and less-than-lethal rounds.

Some of the 2,000 National Guard troops Trump called up over the strenuous objections of Gov. Gavin Newsom and Mayor Karen Bass are now in Southern California. This is the first time something like this has happened since Lyndon B. Johnson sent the Guard to Alabama in 1965 to protect civil rights activists from white citizens and corrupt law enforcement.

Trump’s incendiary move has set a city whose nerves have been frayed all year further on edge, fearing there’s worse to come from him.

And worse things are coming, Angelenos, though not from activists and professional rioters: What we saw this weekend is Trump bonking L.A. with a toy mallet while itching to swing his federal sledgehammer.

One of the many news conferences held over the past three days by outraged community leaders happened Sunday at La Placita Olvera. We best remember it as the birthplace of Los Angeles, but this serene spot also offers a lesson from the past for what’s happening today — and will probably happen soon.

On Feb. 26, 1931, about 400 people were hanging out at La Placita at 3 p.m. when dozens of federal agents from as far away as San Francisco and Arizona suddenly surrounded the plaza. A 2001 Times story noted that immigration authorities “had for days been posting newspaper ads warning of an impending raid against ‘Mexican aliens.’”

LAPD officers stood at each exit to make sure no one could escape. For the next two hours, immigration agents demanded everyone detained show proof that they were in the country legally. La Opinión reported the following day that la migra explained to angry onlookers “with smiles that they were following orders from superiors and that the [roundup] was completely in accord with the laws of the land.”

Sixteen immigrants ended up being detained, all men: 11 were Mexican, five Chinese and one Japanese.

La Placita was specifically chosen by the feds for such a huge raid “for its maximum psychological impact” against Latinos in Los Angeles and beyond, according to “Decade of Betrayal: Mexican Repatriation in the 1930s.” It was the federal government’s kickoff to years of repatriation efforts against people of Mexican descent — more than a few American citizens — pushed by the Hoover and FDR administrations, leading to hundreds of thousands of them leaving the United States, some never to return.

Given Trump’s love of spectacle, what his agencies have unleashed on L.A. over the weekend seems like the opening notes for something even bigger. Expect resistance from residents even stronger that what we’ve seen so far.

Trucha, Los Angeles — be vigilant, and be careful out there.

Here’s more on the immigration raids

Today’s top stories

The Sacramento River flows past orchards along state Highway 160 near a spot where one of two proposed intakes would be located for the Delta Conveyance Project.

(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

Newsom’s power play on the Delta tunnel

• Newsom is asking the Legislature to “fast-track” construction of his controversial and costly water tunnel project in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.
• The $20-billion, 45-mile, 39-feet-wide tunnel would enhance delivery of Northern California water to Southern California.
• Delta towns and farmers, environmental groups and the coastal salmon fishing industry are fighting the project and the governor’s latest move to expedite construction.

Being Jewish on campus amid Trump’s campaign against antisemitism: ‘Tremendous heartache’

• As the academic year draws to a close, The Times interviewed 12 Jewish students and professors at UCLA and USC who reflected on their campus experiences since Hamas’ attack on Israel.
• They wrestled with questions about their safety and President Trump’s aggressive campaign to combat antisemitism at universities.
• Some worried that Trump was using antisemitism as a weapon to carry out his political goal of remaking higher education.

The 2025 Tony Awards

• Hosted by Cynthia Erivo, the 2025 Tony Awards saw a Hollywood invasion of Broadway including winners Sarah Snook and Cole Escola, who won lead actress and lead actor Tony Awards, respectively, for their roles in “The Picture of Dorian Gray” and “Oh, Mary!”
• Here’s the full list of winners.

What else is going on

Commentary and opinions

This morning’s must reads

Other must reads

For your downtime

Participants at the Feels are encouraged to use their bodies and minds to spark intimacy.

(Jennifer McCord / For The Times)

Going out

Staying in

A question for you: What’s the best advice you’ve gotten from your father or father figure?

Steve writes, “I was raised by my stepfather, a 2nd generation Armenian farmer. He didn’t offer much advice verbally, but he left the house each day at 5:30am, worked hard in the Coachella Valley heat, was home for family dinner at 6 and was asleep by 8. His strong work ethic spoke volumes and had a huge effect on the man I chose to become.”

Michele writes, “While still in undergraduate, I was debating whether or not I should go to law school. I was most concerned about adding another three years to my education, and the length of time it would take. My father said, ‘I have one question for you. Three years are likely going to pass in your life one way or another. What do you want to be doing at the end of it?’ Throughout law school, every time I would feel overwhelmed and wanted to quit, I would remind myself that the time was going to pass anyway, and it kept me going towards the end goal.”

Email us at [email protected], and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.

And finally … your photo of the day

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

Today’s great photo is from Times photographer Gina Ferazzi in Compton, where Los Angeles residents pushed back against Immigration and Customs Enforcement sweeps.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, Sunday writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected]. Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on latimes.com.