signals

Tehran, Iran – Iranian authorities have signalled they could shift to a more offensive approach to the war with the United States as a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Washington expires.

Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, head of the political bureau of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told state television on Sunday night that his forces were ready to take whatever action is needed to defend the country.

Tensions between Iran and the US over control of the Strait of Hormuz have continued to rise despite a ceasefire being agreed between them in June. While the MoU effectively collapsed after fighting restarted last month, the agreement officially expires on Monday.

“The enemy started the war and our efforts have been defensive, although they might take on an offensive aspect,” said Javani.

He did not elaborate on what exactly the offensive measures could entail, but said opponents should expect “strategic surprises”.

IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi last week identified US and regional allies’ infrastructure – such as energy networks, power plants and internet-connected systems – as potential targets, if the US hits Iran’s civilian infrastructure.

Hardline Iranian politicians and media outlets have discussed the idea of mounting a ground incursion against US interests in Bahrain and Kuwait if Washington invades Iran.

Analysts have raised questions over the feasibility of that and the risks involved, while there is no recent indication that the US is planning ground operations in Iran.

The Iranian emphasis on offensive deterrence against the US comes after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, viewed as a hardliner, consolidated his power by appointing several IRGC old guard and confidants to key military and security positions last week.

Khamenei said Major General Ahmad Vahidi’s rise to commander-in-chief of the IRGC must represent a mix of “maximum deterrence” with readiness for “powerful offensive operations against the enemy”.

Vahidi said Khamenei’s leadership and the Iranian armed forces had managed to “bring to its knees the most heavily-armed army in world history” after the US and Israel launched strikes in Iran on February 28, starting fierce fighting between the two sides.

US President Donald Trump reiterated on Friday his claim that Iran was defeated in the war while facing a naval blockade acting as a “wall of steel”. He also said the Strait of Hormuz would “pretty soon” be declared US territory.

The White House later suggested that comment was a joke, but Iran’s army chief, Amir Hatami, reacted by setting a $30,000 reward for any man who kills or captures a US soldier, if they are involved in any ground operation on Iranian soil. Women would be given twice the reward if they managed such a feat, he added.

“Our hands are open in terms of reaching the aggressors and they will become more open through our initiatives,” Hatami said, referencing recent Iranian attacks on US forces in Jordan.

Mohsen Rezaee, who has the powerful position of secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, suggested that the Trump administration might have been considering ground operations on Iranian territory, but held off as a result of “half-baked plans”.

Rezaee said that the US Central Command had refrained from hitting Tehran or northern Iran during the two-week flareup in fighting in July, instead attacking about 50 cities in 15 provinces.

He believed that the purpose of the air raids was to prepare for a ground assault to take control of the Strait of Hormuz and potentially reach nuclear facilities in Isfahan, where highly-enriched uranium is suspected of being buried under the rubble of US strikes.

Bridges, roads, maritime control towers, radar and other coastal installations, and military facilities were struck to cut off logistical supplies to southern Iran, Rezaee noted.

“They had not calculated that to land troops for the Strait of Hormuz, it’s not doable with 40,000-50,000 soldiers, you must bring at least 100,000 people,” he said. “You must cross the Zagros Mountains and be able to pass the Fars province.”

Iranian media and commanders have reported in recent weeks that scenarios are in place to defend individual islands and coastal areas in southern Iran that the US military might consider seizing. They include the critical oil export terminals on Kharg Island.

Iranian territories around the Strait of Hormuz have been reinforced with rapid-response units.

Army spokesman Mohammad-Reza Akraminia said last week that the aim will be to prevent any foreign troops landing on Iranian territory.

“If the Americans enter one of our islands, we will certainly target them on our own islands, let alone on other countries’ soil,” he told state TV.

Authorities have also signalled they are ready for any unrest provoked by separatist groups near Iran’s western borders with Iraq and Turkiye, or in the east with Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The IRGC has reportedly bolstered defences and continued to launch missile and drone strikes against armed groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Iran shrugs off expired MoU

Javani, the political chief of the IRGC, said in a separate interview on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz will only fully reopen when Washington implements commitments agreed under the MoU signed in June.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that a two-month window to halt fighting was not specifically mentioned in the MoU text. The ministry also dismissed that the expiration had any particular significance to the war with the US, or Tehran’s ongoing talks with Oman regarding Hormuz.

“It has been proven many times that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not a party to devise its policies under pressure, ultimatums and deadlines. We decide based on our evaluations of what guarantees national interests and security,” Baghaei told reporters during a briefing on Monday.

He said the talks with Oman have so far been delayed in producing an arrangement on the partial reopening of Hormuz due to legal and technical complexities, the multiple actors involved and “ill-wishing parties” seeking to spoil the process.

Parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said during a speech on Sunday night that the MoU was a “document of pride and victory in the field of diplomacy”.

Ghalibaf insisted that the Islamic Republic had emerged “victorious”, both politically and militarily, from the war with the US and Israel.

“I don’t mean that we destroyed their armies, I mean that they attacked us while clearly and repeatedly citing nine objectives, but did not achieve any of these goals at any level. That was the biggest abject failure for the US and the Zionist regime,” he said.

Ghalibaf has not yet managed to convince the Iranian leadership to agree on a long-term diplomatic resolution with the US to end the war.

Nvidia has recruited Wall Street to bankroll its own customers.

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

The US chipmaker said last week it had signed memorandums of understanding with Wall Street’s largest asset managers, including Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, Goldman Sachs and KKR to raise upwards of half a trillion dollars for AI companies to borrow against, money that will buy its chips and build the servers that run them.

The six firms will set up what Nvidia calls “compute financing platforms,” drawing on institutional money, insurance funds and private credit. Borrowers can use the proceeds for the chips as well as servers, networking equipment, buildings and power supply.

Nvidia has the option to guarantee up to a quarter of any given deal, which lowers the interest rate its customers pay while leaving most of the credit risk with the lenders.

CEO Jensen Huang said he approached only these six companies and none refused.

Keeping that spending off their own books is precisely the point, and the fact that such a structure is needed at all tells investors a great deal about where the constraints in the AI boom now lie.

The financial engineering rests on a single reclassification. Graphics processing units (GPUs) have always been treated as equipment that loses value quickly, superseded whenever a faster generation arrives.

Nvidia is effectively asking lenders to treat them instead as long-lived infrastructure, closer to a toll road or a power plant, that can be borrowed against for years.

“These are revenue-generating assets now,” Huang said, describing them as productive, long-lived and transferable between customers.

Why the money had to come from somewhere else

The timing reflects a squeeze that has been building all year.

Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and other hyperscalers whose cloud platforms host most of the world’s AI workloads have together guided roughly $720 billion (€624bn) to $745 billion (€646bn) of capital spending in 2026, an increase of about 77% on last year.

What analysts expect the hyperscalers to spend in 2027 alone has more than doubled in the space of a year, from a consensus of $480 billion (€416bn) in August 2025 to $1.08 trillion (€943bn) this month, a rise of about 127%, according to Bank of America.

The pattern has repeated at every stage.

Analysts who already considered last year’s investment unsustainable then watched the hyperscalers guide higher at the start of 2026, revise those figures upward again through the year, and pencil in larger sums still for next year and 2028.

Moody’s has warned that spending on this scale is eating into free cash flow and pushing tech groups into heavier borrowing. Alphabet recorded negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion (€5.1bn) in a quarter when it spent $44.9 billion (€38.9bn) on projects.

That is the pressure the structure of Nvidia’s Wall Street deal relieves.

Debt raised through these “compute financing platforms” sits with the financing vehicles rather than on a hyperscaler’s own accounts and also has Nvidia’s backing, which protects credit ratings and leaves room for conventional borrowing elsewhere.

For smaller operators the effect is larger still as companies such as CoreWeave and Nebius, which lack investment-grade ratings and pay dearly for credit, gain access to capital on terms previously reserved for the giants.

What the market actually read into it

The reaction was more ambivalent than the headline number suggests, and came weeks after a July selloff driven by doubts over whether AI spending will pay for itself.

Essentially, equity investors saw a bottleneck being cleared while credit investors saw something else: the cost of insuring Nvidia’s own debt against default rose after the news and has roughly doubled since late May.

Their doubt concentrates on the reclassification previously mentioned.

“Chips depreciate fast and lose value the moment a newer generation arrives,” warned Nigel Green of financial advisory firm deVere Group, noting that lending against them only works if the collateral holds its value.

Critics also point out that Nvidia is helping finance purchases of its own products, deepening the circularity that already worries the sector.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called it “a pivotal moment of a historic AI investment cycle.”

Whether it proves pivotal in the direction Solomon means depends on a question nobody can yet answer: what will the value of a current GPU be in five years?

Two drone-related incidents at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany represent the most serious threats yet in the wave of small drone incursions that have plagued Europe for the past few years. German police say an explosive-laden drone was located on the ground near a Ukrainian cargo jet and that there was a midair collision between an object and another cargo aircraft. 

This marks the first time that a drone with explosives has been found in Europe far from the Ukrainian border, The Guardian noted. The incidents, which spurred the opening of a counter-terror investigation and temporary closure of the airport, have raised the level of concern about these incursions and the threats to parked aircraft, issues TWZ has frequently covered for years.

That the drone was carrying explosives “is a new quality of danger,” German Interior Minister Armin Schuster told reporters.

German officials have not said who was operating the drones, but Ukrainian officials are blaming Russia.

“During the night of August 4 to 5, 2026, an airport employee discovered a drone carrying an unknown explosive device in the security area of the cargo flight operations, near the ‘South Runway takeoff/landing strip,’” the Saxony State Criminal Police said in a release. “The object was examined with the support of the Federal Police and a bomb-disposal robot. The Federal Police’s IEDD (improvised explosive device disposal) unit removed the detonator from the explosive device.”

The explosive-laden drone was found near a massive An-124-100 Ruslan (NATO reporting name Condor) cargo jet. As we have previously reported, Antonov, which operates the aircraft, is now using Leipzig as its headquarters after its facilities at Hostomel Airport in Ukraine were destroyed in the opening days of the Russian all-out invasion. The airport is also used by NATO and the German military for transport.

In the context of a Russian threat, the Condor, in particular, represents an unsurprising target. Ukraine’s An-124s are a source of national pride and a big flying symbol of the country’s defiance and survival. They also provide much-needed revenue to Ukraine and strategic airlift to support the conflict. Ukraine’s An-124s have long provided charter cargo services for western militaries, companies and NGOs. Since the war began, Antonov Airlines An-124s have been used to deliver war materiel bound for Ukraine. So, these giant aircraft really check a lot of boxes if Russia was looking to drastically escalate to executing such brazen attacks in European countries. While they are clearly the logical suspect in this case, we still have no proof who was behind these incidents.

In addition to the drone on the ground, “a presumed second, unknown flying object collided with a cargo aircraft after it aborted its landing and went around again due to the previously imposed runway closure,” the Saxony State Criminal Police added. “After landing in Hanover, the aircraft was found to have sustained minor damage.”

The cargo jet in the midair incident reportedly belonged to DHL. It should be noted that in 2024, Western security officials said they believed “that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies,” according to The Wall Street Journal at the time. However, there is no clear connection between these situations at this time.

“Leipzig Airport is part of our critical infrastructure,” stated State Minister of Justice Prof. Constanze Geiert. “Attacks on these structures must be pursued by the law enforcement authorities with full force and severity. It is therefore welcome that the investigation has been taken over by the Central Office for Extremism Saxony (ZESA), the Dresden General Prosecutor’s Office, and the Saxony State Criminal Police Office, and is now being conducted under high pressure and in close coordination with the federal security authorities.”

As noted earlier in this story, German officials have yet to point the finger at anyone, but Ukraine’s officials say Moscow is behind it.

Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Oleksii Makeiev, blamed Moscow. “Who else could it be but Russia?” he told German media, without offering any proof. Ukraine’s strategic communications center took a similar stance.

“New footage of yet another act of Russian terrorism on EU soil, showing the drone loaded with explosives on the tarmac at Leipzig/Halle Airport, just meters from a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft,” Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications posited on X. “According to German authorities, the drone was carrying an improvised explosive device. Bomb disposal specialists rendered it safe after determining the detonator had malfunctioned, preventing the device from exploding. In a separate incident the same night, a DHL cargo aircraft reportedly struck an unidentified object shortly after departure—possibly another drone—before diverting safely. The aircraft landed without injuries, though inspectors found minor damage.”

While it is unknown how the UAS came to be found near the Condor, or what countermeasures are in place at the airport, if any, when taken at face value, it has all the hallmarks of an attempted near-field attack via short-range drone. This is the same kind of strike Ukraine famously pulled off last year during its Operation Spiderweb campaign against Russian strategic aviation. In that operation, Ukraine remotely launched drones, hidden in trucks parked near airfields across Russia, to hit parked bombers and other critical aircraft. Spiderweb hammered home a threat TWZ had raised for years — even the most important aircraft on earth largely sit vulnerable on the ground to large scale attacks by low-end drones launched nearby.

You can see a video of one of the Operation Spiderweb attacks below:

The U.S. Air Force Reserve’s 442nd Fighter Wing is now set to transition to the F-15E Strike Eagle after retiring the last of its A-10 Warthog ground attack jets. This is an unexpected announcement and follows years of uncertainty about whether the 442nd would still have a tactical flying mission at all after its A-10s headed to the boneyard. The decision to give the wing F-15Es, rather than a newer type like the F-15EX Eagle II, is also notable, and there were hints this was coming. The jets will have to come from another unit, pointing to larger force structure changes on the horizon.

Representative Mark Alford, a Missouri Republican, announced the transition plan for the 442nd late yesterday. The Wing’s home station is Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, which is situated in Alford’s district. Whiteman is better known for being the home of the Air Force’s B-2 bomber fleet. The Missouri Army National Guard’s 1st Battalion, 135th Aviation Regiment, with its UH-60 Black Hawks, is also a tenant unit at the base.

The Department of the Air Force has approved “the enterprise definition, site survey criteria, and candidate location for the Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) F-15E Strike Eagle basing action,” according to a press release from Alford’s office. “Based on the approved enterprise definition, Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, has been identified as the sole candidate location for the F-15E Strike Eagle mission – a decision that marks a critical step toward securing the future of the 442d Fighter Wing and continuing its decades-long tradition of excellence.”

“The Department of the Air Force’s decision supports its broader goal of increasing fighter capacity, modernizing the fighter force, and replacing aging aircraft with a capable and sustainable platform,” the release adds. “The planned transition will bring 24 F-15E Strike Eagles to Whiteman Air Force Base, preserving a critical Air Force Reserve combat-coded fighter unit and the experience of the 442d Fighter Wing.”

The current plan is for the first F-15Es to begin arriving at Whiteman in Fiscal Year 2031, the release also notes. This is in line with the new retirement schedule for the A-10 fleet that the U.S. Air Force announced earlier this year. The service had previously been aiming to divest the last of its Warthogs in 2029, but is now set to continue flying the type through 2030. The 442nd at Whiteman, as well as an active component squadron at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia, are now in line to be the last operational A-10 units. A second active duty unit at Moody will also keep flying the A-10 for an extra year, into 2029, under the new plan.

TWZ has also reached out to the U.S. Air Force for more information in light of Alford’s announcement.

Most immediately, the decision to transition the 442nd to the F-15E is a major win for the unit and for Whiteman, preserving a tactical flying mission at the base for the future. The impending retirement of the A-10 has caused significant uncertainty for units flying Warthogs, especially in the Air Force Reserve and the Air National Guard. Members of Congress, as well as state politicians, on both sides of the political aisle have been pushing for years for new flying missions for existing A-10 units. A similar surprise announcement came in April 2025, when President Donald Trump announced that the Michigan Air National Guard’s 127th Wing would be trading its Warthogs for F-15EXs.

“I want to sincerely thank the leaders throughout the Department of the Air Force, Air Force Reserve Command, Governor [Mike] Kehoe for bringing this matter to President Trump’s attention, Missouri’s State Senators for their efforts, and the many Whiteman Air Force Base Airmen who took the time to give their concerns and help make this mission possible,” Rep. Alford said in a statement yesterday. “This outcome reflects what can happen when a community comes together, when our military leaders listen, and when we work toward a shared goal.”

“This is incredible news for Whiteman Air Force Base, the 442d Fighter Wing, and our entire state. The F-15E Strike Eagle mission secures the future for the 442d, saving jobs and bringing continued opportunity to Missouri,” Gov. Kehoe wrote in a post on X yesterday. “This historic announcement would not have been possible without @RepMarkAlford’s [Rep. Alford’s] dedication to securing this mission alongside Whiteman leadership, @SenEricSchmitt [Senator Eric Schmitt], and @SenHawleyPress [Senator Josh Hawley].”

“This is the first in several steps,” Alford also acknowledged during a press conference yesterday, as seen in the video below. “There’s a lot of planning that has to go into this, a lot of regulatory steps. But this is a first step that I’ve been waiting on for three and a half years: for the Air Force to give us a call and to email us with a detailed plan of how this is going to work out.”

LIVE: ALFORD ANNOUNCES MAJOR VICTORY FOR WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE

As mentioned, the more specific plan now to convert the 442nd into an F-15E squadron is interesting. The original Strike Eagle is long out of production, and the Air Force currently has some 212 of these jets in inventory.

So, to make the plan work, the F-15Es heading to Whiteman in Fiscal Year 2031 will have to come from somewhere else within the Air Force. Right now, there are six active-duty Strike Eagle squadrons spread across Seymour-Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina, Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho, and RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom. There are a smaller number of Strike Eagles assigned to test and evaluation units, as well.

It’s also important to note here that there are roughly two halves to the F-15E fleet: older jets with Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-220 turbofan engines and ones with more powerful F100-PW-229 variants. The Strike Eagles with -229 engines are newer, with the final batch of 10 aircraft being delivered in the early 2000s.

The F-15Es are still some of the most heavily in-demand aircraft in the Air Force’s inventory today, offering a very flexible multi-mission tactical platform with impressive range and payload capacity. At the same time, the Strike Eagle fleet has been heavily strained by persistent operational demands for decades now. This has been recently compounded by the loss of four jets in the course of operations against Iran this year.

The Air Force has moved in recent years to retire its older F-100-PW-220-powered Strike Eagles, ostensibly to free up resources for new and improved capabilities as part of larger modernization efforts. Congress has pushed back against those plans, something we will come back to later on. More recently, the service also announced plans to roughly double the size of its fleet of F-15EX fleet, from 129 to 267 jets, explicitly to help “begin to recapitalize the aging F-15E fleet.”

TWZ has been highlighting the logic of replacing the F-15Es, or at least a substantial portion of that fleet, with new EXs, for years now. As we have previously noted, the current acquisition plan is large enough that it could also help fill gaps left by the retirement of the A-10 fleet and older F-16 Viper fighters.

We have also talked in the past about the potential value then of sending the resulting ‘surplus’ F-15Es to other Air Force units, especially in the reserve component and the Air National Guard. It would arguably make more sense in many cases to give active-duty squadrons newer F-15EXs while pushing older Strike Eagles to the Reserve and Guard. The more heavily air-to-ground-focused, two-seat F-15Es would be especially well positioned to carry on close air support, forward air control, and other missions currently performed by units transitioning from the A-10. The loss of this knowledge and specialization is among the biggest concerns with retiring the A-10.

“For every one of these A-10 units that are going away, I’m looking at if there’s a means by which we can get an F-15 unit behind it, whether it’s a Strike Eagle or an EX,” Air Force Lt. Gen. John P. Healy, Chief of Air Force Reserve, said just this past February at the Air & Space Forces Association’s annual Warfare Symposium in February.

“I am optimistic that we’ve at least got people listening to the value that we provide, the combat capability we provide, the experience that we provide,” Healy also said at that time when asked directly by TWZ about the likelihood of F-15Es heading to Air Force Reserve units. “We’ve proven it over and over again. We’re efficient, we’re experienced, we’re 100 percent accessible as a reserve force, and we’re lethal in all these mission sets. I think our message is sounding in a positive way with senior leadership within the Air Force. I’m not going to cash the check yet, but I’m optimistic about our future in terms of recapitalizing some of our units.”

To reiterate, sending F-15Es to any Air Force Reserve and/or Air National Guard squadron will require a redistribution of the existing Strike Eagle fleet. The comment in the press release from Rep. Alford’s office that Whiteman has been “identified as the sole candidate location for the F-15E Strike Eagle mission” raises further questions about exactly what the entire Strike Eagle force, and its disposition, will look like by the end of the decade. Seymour-Johnson is where the F-15E schoolhouse currently resides, and the base is also now the hub for F-15EX training.

The new plans for a larger fleet of F-15EXs will factor in the equation, as well. The Oregon Air National Guard’s 142nd Wing is currently the only operational unit flying Eagle IIs. The Air Force has announced that Air National Guard squadrons in California and Louisiana, as well as the aforementioned one in Michigan, will be receiving F-15EXs, too. Two active duty Eagle II squadrons are also set to be established at Kadena Air Base in Japan. There are currently expected to be nearly 120 aircraft assigned to these squadrons, as well as test and evaluation units, collectively. With the EX fleet now set to comprise 267 aircraft, there is then the question of where nearly 150 additional jets will be assigned. Recapitalizing frontline F-15E units with EXs would go a long way toward providing an answer, while also freeing up Strike Eagles for reassignment elsewhere.

The 442nd’s transition to the F-15E is still not expected to come for several more years. There is the possibility then that the plan, as well as other expected force structure changes, could evolve further due to a variety of factors. For one, Congress has already stepped in to block the Air Force from retiring any Strike Eagles through at least September 2027, and could do the same again next year. At the same time, this would not preclude the Air Force from reassigning those jets to new units as other aircraft enter service.

There is also the potential for A-10s to continue serving beyond 2030. Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of Congressmen introduced a bill that, if passed and signed into law, would require the Air Force to continue flying Warthogs through Fiscal Year 2033. This proposed legislation is named the BRRRRT Act (standing for Bolstering Recognition, Resurgence, Retention, and Remembrance of the Thunderbolt), a reference to the sound the A-10’s iconic 30mm GAU-8/A Avenger cannon makes when fired. This is on top of additional lifelines for the Warthog community contained in drafts of the annual defense policy bill, or National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), for Fiscal Year 2027 that are now making their way through Congress.

The employment of A-10s in strikes against targets in and around Iran this year directly contributed to the Air Force’s aforementioned decision to extend the service life of the fleet. This has also bolstered general support for the aircraft, which has long had a vocal following among the general public.

Though clearly an important development for the 442nd Fighter Wing, the transition plan that has been outlined now looks to be just the start of major changes for the Air Force’s F-15E fleet, especially as the new F-15EX continues to take center stage.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

In the latest twist in Canada’s long-running saga to field a new fighter, the country’s defense minister has said that Ottawa is “interested in learning more about” the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) next-generation fighter. GCAP is currently a trinational effort, led by the United Kingdom and involving Italy and Japan. Its centerpiece is the Tempest crewed fighter. A demonstrator for this jet is currently taking shape with BAE Systems in the United Kingdom.

David McGuinty, the Minister of National Defense of Canada, made the remarks after a meeting in Tokyo with his Japanese counterpart, Shinjiro Koizumi. Breaking Defense reports that McGuinty confirmed he had spoken with Koizumi about the GCAP, which the Canadian official described as a “promising initiative.”

“We are interested in learning more about it. I’ll take it back to my team and see what it looks ‌like,” McGuinty told Reuters.

Until now, no senior Canadian official appears to have spoken publicly about interest in GCAP. However, the development comes as Ottawa weighs up the option of a split fighter buy, which would involve acquiring the U.S.-made F-35 and one other type. This thinking has been driven by a growing rift between Ottawa and Washington.

However, the possibility of Canada coming on board GCAP as an ‘observer’ had been raised in March of this year. According to The Asahi Shimbun, a Japanese daily newspaper, unnamed Japanese officials disclosed that, during a previous meeting, McGuinty and Koizumi discussed such an arrangement.

Canada’s joining GCAP with observer status would provide it access to information on the program and could be a stepping-stone to deeper involvement.

Earlier this week, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto raised the possibility of other nations joining GCAP, noting that, were that to happen, “we would be completely willing, because the more there are, the greater the chances of creating something and bringing down costs.”

Crosetto then identified Canada as “the country most interested [in GCAP] at the moment.” He said he would be “fully open” to Canada joining as an observer.

For Canada, however, GCAP would require a rethink of Canada’s potential pursuit of a split-buy approach to its new fighter.

Until now, the Saab Gripen E had been identified as the most likely candidate to be bought alongside the F-35.

Sweden has made a strong push to sell Gripen to Ottawa, and Saab offered to build the jet in Canada, in an effort to secure support for its previous bid, which it lost to Lockheed Martin. Since then, Saab has also emerged as the preferred candidate to supply Canada with its future airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) via its GlobalEye.

In April of this year, McGuinty confirmed that Ottawa was still reviewing its earlier plan to buy 88 F-35s.

“The review of the purchase of the F-35s is continuing… We are taking the necessary time to study very, very closely the question of the fighter fleet,” McGuinty told the Senate’s defense committee.

The split-buy option emerged since Canada has already made a firm commitment to buy 16 F-35As to start replacing its aging CF-18 Hornets. Canada’s industry also has a significant degree of involvement in the Joint Strike Fighter program.

Canada currently has around 75 CF-18A/B+ jets and has also added 18 upgraded former Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) F/A-18A/Bs, plus seven more as spares, to help bolster its fleet.

Of Canada’s first 16 F-35s, four have already been paid for in full, while parts for eight others have also been purchased. The first Canadian F-35s were expected to be delivered for training at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, in 2026.

Back in 2023, Canada’s Liberal government announced plans to buy 88 F-35s, a decision that appeared to bring closure to what had already been a very protracted process. You can read about this here.

However, amid growing trade tensions and a war of words with the United States, Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a review of the F-35 program shortly after taking office in the spring of 2025.

There are other arguments for a split buy, too. Back in 2019, the cost of buying the planned 88 F-35s was put at $19 billion. Now it has rocketed to $27.7 billion, not including weapons and infrastructure.

Bill Blair, who was Canada’s defense minister when the review of the F-35 buy was launched last year, pointed to the advantages of a mixed fleet, saying it would give the RCAF more options to handle different types of threats.

“What happens if you have to persist in that space for months and months and years? The tool that you use, is it the right tool to do that job?” Blair said. “We need to have a whole wide range of capability sets to deal with all the eventualities that we could face.”

Were Canada to procure the Tempest, it would surely have to wait longer than 2035 — the prospect of GCAP’s fighter entering service at this date, as planned, is highly unlikely. Canada would be fourth in line behind the three core partners. Ottawa would need to buy more F-35s, perhaps around two thirds of its original intended number, or around 60 aircraft, and also keep the best of its CF-18s in service for longer, if that’s even possible. The Hornets are getting very old and disappearing from service abroad. Supporting them will become increasingly problematic. When the Tempest finally arrived, it would provide a flipped high-low fighter mix. This is essentially the same approach that the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan — all current F-35 operators — are taking.

However, the Tempest does appear to be especially well-suited to Canada’s fighter requirement.

The design of the jet will stress extreme range and a large payload — roughly twice that of the F-35A. Senior GCAP officials have said the jet could potentially carry enough internal fuel to fly across the Atlantic without refueling.

While these attributes are optimized for a future conflict in the Indo-Pacific region, they are equally applicable to dealing with the ‘tyranny of distance’ and the increasing Russian threat posed around Canada’s enormous land mass, which extends far into the highly strategic Arctic region.

“Both China and Russia have fifth-generation fighter aircraft and fifth-generation missiles that are able to go at much greater speeds and with much more that are holding Western allies at risk at this moment in time,” the commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF), Lt. Gen. Jamie Speiser-Blanchet, said in the past.

Plans to arm the Tempest with larger air-to-air missiles offering a longer range than those currently used by any of the three GCAP partner countries have also been revealed, as you can read about here.

If Canada decides it wants a sixth-generation combat aircraft to tackle current and emerging threats from China and Russia, the GCAP might be the only realistic choice. The rival pan-European Future Combat Air System (FCAS) has collapsed, and there is little chance of Canada getting its hand on the Boeing F-47.

But any kind of split buy “would duplicate a certain amount of infrastructure and training,” Speiser-Blanchet admitted.

In some cases, however, there could be cost-benefit arguments in having a mixed fighter fleet, as well as the important factor of not relying entirely upon one source of this type of combat equipment.

There is also the question of how feasible it would be for Canada to join GCAP at this point, at least in terms of industrial participation and steering requirements. The latter point seems next to impossible, with national requirements already set, and most of the workshare agreement has also been divided up between the three partners.

The same applies to India, which has also looked at joining GCAP in the past.

There has been talk of Saudi Arabia possibly joining GCAP in some capacity, and, more recently, Poland has been reported as being interested in buying the aircraft, too.

With that in mind, Canada’s best shot might be to buy the jet ‘off the shelf,’ rather than hope for industrial windfalls.

At the same time, Canada and the United Kingdom are partners on some other key military programs, including the Royal Canadian Navy’s future River class Canadian Surface Combatants, derived from BAE Systems’ Type 26 design for the U.K. Royal Navy. 

Meet The River-Class Destroyer – State-of-the-art WARSHIP!

Returning to the Tempest, the broader GCAP program still has to survive considerable challenges, both technical and political, that lie ahead.

As we have explained many times in the past, the process of creating an all-new fighter, especially one incorporating stealth technologies, brings very lengthy development times and high costs.

At this point, BAE Systems is in the process of building a demonstrator as part of the GCAP program, with a first flight planned by the end of 2027.

The latest rendering of that demonstrator appears at the top of the story. Notably, it retains the Typhoon’s EJ200 turbofan engines, with non-stealthy nozzles. The Tempest will have an all-new powerplant.

As we have argued in the past, the more time that passes, and the more deeply intertwined with the F-35 Canada becomes, the arguments in favor of a split fighter buy become harder to justify. Buying the Tempest would certainly not be the cheapest option, and would force a rethink of timelines, but it does underscore the fact that Canadian officials are casting their net wider, looking at very high-end capabilities, and seeking to build deeper strategic relationships outside of the United States.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

EVIAN-LES-BAINS, France — The United States could soon reimpose sanctions on Russian oil shipments after President Trump and fellow leaders at the Group of Seven summit of major industrialized democracies moved Tuesday to put the war in Ukraine back on top of their agenda, more than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

The Iran war has recently overshadowed Ukraine, but Trump said he wants to shift the focus following the announcement of an agreement to end the 3½-month-old conflict in the Gulf.

Trump said Iran will soon be “back in the rearview mirror.”

Trump said the sanctions on Russia that were eased during the Iran war to help lower oil prices can go back in place as more oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Soon we’ll be able to do that because the oil is now flowing,” Trump told reporters in Evian, the French spa town close to the Swiss border that is hosting the summit. “We’re in a position to do that soon.”

The U.S. in March temporarily eased some sanctions on some Russian oil shipments as crude prices sharply increased. The waiver has been extended.

Zelensky joins G7 leaders for talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky joined the G7 leaders for talks on the war in his country. They wrapped quickly, after just 75 minutes.

Zelensky said Ukraine is serious about peace while Russia toys with world leaders. “The entire ‘Seven’ supports Ukraine unanimously today,” he said.

Zelensky added that G7 leaders supported Ukraine’s need for more Patriot missiles and discussed how to increase production by licensing production. Patriot missiles are able to counter Russian ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine’s power grid and cities.

As the U.S. under Trump has cut back aid to Ukraine, France and its European allies are now the biggest providers of military and financial support to Kyiv.

Trump downplayed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the U.S. but lamented the death toll.

“The whole thing is ridiculous,” Trump said. “So, yeah, I’m going to do whatever I can.”

Meanwhile, the U.K. announced new sanctions targeting the “shadow fleet ” Russia uses to ship oil and gas, and the finance networks used by Moscow to evade Western sanctions. The ships targeted include several recently purchased by Russia to transport liquefied natural gas from its sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project.

Russia fires again at Ukraine’s biggest cities

Hours before the summit began Monday, Russia fired hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles at Ukraine’s biggest cities in a barrage that killed 11 people and set fire to a religious landmark.

The attacks came after Zelensky and Putin spoke separately by phone with Trump on Sunday, the U.S. leader’s 80th birthday.

While campaigning in 2024 for a return to the White House, Trump claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office. However, negotiations have faltered and Trump has acknowledged it has proved much harder than he thought.

Ukraine on Monday officially started European Union membership negotiations, launching a process that will require its government to commit to years of political reforms even as it fights the Russian invasion.

Ukraine sees EU membership as a security guarantee for a stable future once the war ends. Its best guarantee would be membership in the NATO military alliance, but the Trump administration insists that cannot happen, and others are wary of Ukraine joining while the war continues.

Trump says he may send Iran deal to Congress

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal got plenty of attention at Tuesday’s sessions, with Trump voicing his openness to sending the deal to Congress for review. The text has not been made public.

“I like the idea, send it to Congress please,” Trump said at the start of a meeting with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on the summit’s sidelines. He added, “I mean who wouldn’t approve it?”

Republicans on Capitol Hill say they want Trump to provide more information about the agreement, with some expressing skepticism that the deal can deter Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon.

Trump also met with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. The Gulf nations are not part of the G7, but French President Emmanuel Macron extended invitations to their leaders at a fraught moment for their region.

Trump also expressed frustration over Israel’s continued hostilities with the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, telling reporters he’s “not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah.”

Trump said Israeli operations to target Hezbollah “should have been able to deal with them faster,” adding: “It just goes on forever. And when that happens, it throws a negative light on the big deal. And that’s the deal with Iran.”

Macron said France and other Western partners are “ready to take action very quickly” to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz peacefully to ease the economic impact of rising oil prices. France and the U.K. have championed a mission to restore maritime security there as soon as conditions allow.

The G7 comprises France, the United States, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom. Other guest nations, including Brazil, India, Kenya and South Korea, were invited to participate in some discussions.

Superville, Corbet and Madhani write for the Associated Press. Madhani reported from Geneva. AP writers Jill Lawless and Samuel Petrequin in London, Collin Binkley in Washington and Illia Novikov in Kyiv contributed to this report.