scenario

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where I am thrilled to announce that the start of the USC football season is here. And a week before the rest of college football, no less!

We’ve reminded you enough by now that this is a make-or-break season for USC and for its head coach, Lincoln Riley. With a new defensive coordinator who’s in the College Football Hall of Fame, a new, state-of-the-art football facility and the nation’s top recruiting class in tow, USC has given Riley everything he needs to succeed.

So what if … he actually does?

Last week, we walked you through the worst-case scenario for USC’s 2026 slate. So this week, let’s put on our cardinal-and-gold colored glasses and consider what this season might look like if everything actually goes right. Because there’s certainly a world in which USC earns a place in the College Football Playoff. Maybe even wins a game or two (or three?).

That picture-perfect scenario, however, hinges in my mind on how fast USC’s stellar freshman class rounds into form.

Imagine for a minute a Trojans defense with Luke Wafle, the nation’s top prospect in 2026, screaming off the edge a la the Bosa Bros at Ohio State. Or what about “Boobie” Feaster, the Trojans’ 17-year-old stud wideout, taking a tunnel screen to the house through the teeth of Oregon’s defense?

USC hasn’t had this much talent on the roster since I started covering the team in 2019. And while it’s fair to be hesitant about relying on so many freshmen, what if, when push comes to shove, they’re just the best players on the team?

It’s not hard to envision that being the case at wide receiver, at tight end and even along the defensive line. Freshmen could even be starting, at some point, on the offensive line, at linebacker and in the defensive backfield. (OK, this might not sound like a best-case yet, but bear with me here …)

USC has the first three weeks of its season to let the freshmen figure it out, followed by a trip across the country to Rutgers, and with no redshirts to worry about, I’d venture to say we’ll see the full breadth of freshmen Trojan talent over those four games. If USC can emerge from that stretch with the confidence of its young players soaring, then it should have a shot when Oregon comes to town.

If there’s one game that could decide the direction of USC’s season, it’s this one. It’s a critical moment for quarterback Jayden Maiava, who had his worst game of the year a season ago in Eugene. Any world in which USC makes a playoff run must include a major leap from Maiava. This is his time to prove that he’s taken that last step in his game, the one that could truly separate him as a first-round NFL draft pick. He has the talent, and in this case, he’ll have to show every bit of it.

Meanwhile, USC’s defense could cast some doubt on the potential of the Ducks’ own quarterback with a promising performance here. Dante Moore has yet to face a ranked team in a true road environment as Oregon’s starter. And the Coliseum is going to be rocking that night. I could see him slipping up on the road.

If Maiava can play to his potential and the defense can rise to the occasion, USC can beat Oregon for the first time in a decade. And if it does, a world of possibilities open up for USC.

With the confidence of its fabulous freshmen soaring, USC rolls through Washington at home. A trip to Penn State, during what’s sure to be a White Out game, marks the second moment in which the Trojans’ young stars could be seriously tested. But who’s to say that the Nittany Lions, under Matt Campbell, have anywhere close to the talent the Trojans will bring to State College. And without its usual pass rush, I could see Maiava picking Penn State apart.

Wins over Maryland and on the road at Wisconsin are locks in this scenario, as is a stomping of crosstown rival UCLA and new coach Bob Chesney.

So what about Ohio State and Indiana, our last two national title winners? The more winnable of those two, in my opinion, is the Halloween home game with Ohio State, considering the questions on the Buckeyes’ defense. But Ohio State is still the deeper, more talented team, and by that point in the season, injuries will have surely affected USC’s roster.

As for Indiana, well, not only have the Hoosiers not lost at home under Curt Cignetti, but they’ve allowed just 10 points per game over Cignetti’s 15 home games as coach. USC has to slip up somewhere in the schedule, and my bet would be Bloomington.

Ten wins would surely secure USC its first-ever Playoff spot, delivering the statement that Riley so desperately needed in his fifth season. And if by this point, its fleet of freshmen just happen to be peaking, then there’s no telling how far this team could go from there.

Thanos down

Jahkeem Stewart (4) reacts against the Michigan State Spartans last season.

(Luke Hales / Getty Images)

In a brutal twist of fate for USC, just ahead of its Week 0 opener, defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart is now likely to miss the nonconference slate with a foot injury.

It’s terrible news for the sophomore standout and for USC, which needs all the talent it can get along the defensive line. Stewart’s participation throughout camp had been a bit inconsistent already, presumably in an effort to keep him fresh for the season.

The fact that he’s likely to miss the first three games isn’t so much the main concern here. It’s that foot injuries are notoriously tricky. We don’t have much information on whether this was a aggravation or an entirely new problem, but a source downplayed the current injury’s severity. Still, it’s not a great sign for a player that was expected, at least by me, to be all-conference caliber this season.

Does Riley have any interest in adding old Trojans to the roster?

A court ruling bafflingly cleared the way last week for players who have already signed with NFL teams to gain some added college eligibility. And while no one has been added to the mix yet, USC’s coach said this week he wasn’t against adding under the right circumstances.

“Addition doesn’t always mean necessarily making you better, right?” Riley said. “And we feel very strongly about the group that we’ve put together, we feel very strongly about the kind of culture and attitude and vibe of this team right now, and so first and foremost, we’re going to protect that.”

Other than at linebacker, where USC would have to add someone new from the transfer portal midseason, or because of injuries, I don’t see a scenario in which it would really make sense. Anthony Lucas or Lake McRee just don’t move the needle at this point.

Class of ‘26 power rankings: Week 0

USC signed the top-ranked class last recruiting cycle, so as they finally hit the field, the Times of Troy will keep tabs on their progress by doing what we do best: Ranking their performance! In this case, we’ll rank them based on the freshmen we most expect to make a difference when USC kicks off against San José State.

Trent Mosley at USC spring football practice.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

1. Luke Wafle, DE … the No. 1 overall prospect in 2026 should get plenty of run coming off the edge in these first few games. I wouldn’t be surprised if, over that stretch, he makes it impossible to keep him on the bench.

2. Trent Mosley, WR. Seemingly locked into a starting job since the spring, Mosley is 20 years old and much further along than most freshmen when it comes to football IQ. He could lead the team in targets if all breaks right.

3. Mark Bowman, TE. Bowman was in and out of practice through camp, which might be the only thing keeping him from the No. 1 spot on this list. Don’t be surprised if the breakout doesn’t come right away as he gets into the swing of things.

4. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, WR. A standout of camp with Tanook Hines sidelined, Dixon-Wyatt should be thrust into a big role right away. He’s a big play waiting to happen, and of all the freshmen position players, he’s the one I’d expect to wow us first.

5. Elbert “Rock” Hill, CB. Another standout of camp, Hill is behind two surefire starters in Jontez Williams and Chasen Johnson. But from what we’ve seen and heard, the freshman cornerback is way ahead of schedule.

6. Boobie Feaster, WR. Feaster is so young — just turned 17 — but his talent is undeniable. He has the potential to be the No. 1 guy on this list by season’s end.

7. Tomuhini “Tom Tom” Topui, DT. Stewart’s injury could open the door for more young guys on the interior, including Topui, who really impressed me in the scrimmage and has been receiving rave reviews from teammates.

8. Talanoa Ili, LB. In a linebacker room with shallow depth, don’t be surprised if Ili emerges early. I like what I’ve seen.

9. Madden Riordan, S. One of the bigger surprises in the class, Riordan added critical weight and now should play a part in the defensive back rotation. Being 20 already helps.

10. Breck Kolojay, OG. Kolojay was a major standout of spring, then cooled in camp while dealing with injuries. He’s likely a next-man-up option on the offensive interior.

11. Tron Baker, WR. Baker has a lot of other freshman wideouts ahead of him on this list, but we’ve heard his name a lot listed among young players who impressed.

12. Deshonne Redeaux, RB/KR. I really like Redeaux’s smooth, effortless running style, and while he’s down the depth chart at running back, he could right away be the kick returner.

Poll results

We asked, “What is the fewest number of wins you’d accept from Riley and USC without calling for a change?”
After 1,507 votes, the results:

Nine wins, 35.6%
10 wins/playoff appearance, 27.9%
Eight wins, 24.6%
Seven wins, 8.8%
Six wins, 3.1%

Olympic sports spotlight

Jane Alukonis was named the Big Ten women’s soccer coach of the year in 2024, but the Trojans trudged their way to a 7-7-3 finish in 2025 and have a lot to prove as their 2026 season begins.

Lucky for Alukonis, she brings in the No. 1-ranked recruiting class in the nation according to Prep Soccer, a class highlighted by forward Jordan Hill, the No. 3 overall prospect, and defender Rhiannon Mahon, the No. 5 overall prospect.

But the Trojans were still picked in the preseason to finish seventh in the Big Ten. And with losses to Duke and Brigham Young already, USC is already facing an uphill climb to start the season.

What I’m Watching This Week

Anne Hathaway as Andy Sachs in “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”

(Macall Polay / 20th Century Studios)

No one told me before I watched “The Devil Wears Prada 2” on a plane last weekend that it was a journalism movie! But even aside from commiserating about the state of journalism through the screen with Anne Hathaway, I enjoyed this second go-round.

So what if it was a blatant cash grab? Put Hathaway, Meryl Streep, Emily Blunt and Stanley Tucci in a room, and I’d probably watch whatever they come up. Tucci, in particular, was a standout for me in this sequel.

In case you missed it

How Boobie Feaster became one of the USC playmakers to watch at age 17

Ohio State and Oregon lead AP top 25 preseason college football poll; USC also ranked

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

DENVER — The imaging Dodgers closer Edwin Díaz underwent in Los Angeles on Wednesday morning revealed a “best-case scenario,” manager Dave Roberts said before the series finale against the Rockies.

“There were no findings, so that was good,” Roberts said. “MRI was clean. It doesn’t change the fact that he had this sensation in his neck. But I think to keep working on it, give it some rest as far as throwing the baseball.”

Díaz officially went on the IL for “neck inflammation,” but early theories on the injury, before he went to a specialist on Wednesday, suggested the issue could be related to the area around the trapezius, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.

Roberts said Wednesday that the results suggested the injury was more muscular, rather than nerve related.

“I think he’d been feeling the tightness in his neck,” Roberts said. “But I think where it went to the other night, he hadn’t felt that sensation. So that’s what really checked him up.”

Roberts said he didn’t know exactly how long Díaz would be shut down from throwing, but he estimated that it probably would be only a couple of days.

The bullpen shuffle continued Wednesday, when the Dodgers activated right-hander Brock Stewart (right shoulder discomfort) from the 15-day IL. In a corresponding move, they designated right-hander Jonathan Hernández for assignment.

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where we’re dedicating the next two editions of Times of Troy to determining a range of outcomes for this make-or-break season of USC football. We’ll save the rose-colored takes for next week, when the Trojans will be on the doorstep of their season opener against San José State. But for today, as we did at this time last year, let’s consider the other, darker side of that same coin — and talk about how it could all go wrong.

Because, rest assured, there will be plenty of landmines to navigate through a gauntlet schedule that includes all three of the top three teams in opponent adjusted efficiency (FEI) from last season (Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State), plus the 14th-ranked team in the same category (Washington). Then there’s a trip to one of the hardest places to play in America (Penn State) to boot.

USC will need to win at least three of those five games to make the Playoff. Which is borderline cruel to ask.

For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that USC opens its season 3-0, with wins over San José State, Fresno State and Louisiana. Anything less, it’s fair to say, would be an unmitigated disaster.

How those three weeks go, though, will be important for the progress of USC’s young players, who need to find their bearings fast in order for USC to fulfill its potential.

It would be an especially unfortunate twist of fate for that process to be interrupted or for the team’s depth to take a hit through that easy, early stretch. But barring injury, those first three weeks should give USC time to get some of its young stars — such as receivers Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Boobie Feaster, tight end Mark Bowman, cornerback Rock Hill and defensive end Luke Wafle, especially — up to speed.

The slate really begins Sept. 19, when USC opens conference play with its furthest possible trip east, at Rutgers. With Oregon awaiting the next week and the added dynamic of cross-country travel, you could certainly convince me the Trojans could be caught flat-footed in this game, leaving things a bit too close for comfort. But if USC somehow loses to Rutgers in its Big Ten opener, coach Lincoln Riley might not make it much past Halloween.

So let’s say the Trojans are 4-0 when Oregon comes to the Coliseum in late September. Really, it’s this game that will tell us where USC is actually headed this season.

Because the stage will have never been bigger for quarterback Jayden Maiava, who had his worst game of 2025 in Eugene last fall. That performance, according to Pro Football Focus, featured double the turnover-worthy throws (six) of any other game Maiava has started at USC. Any worst-case for USC probably includes some form of unraveling from the quarterback.

But even with Maiava at his best, Oregon is still the deeper and more well-rounded team. The front seven should be as formidable as it’s ever been under coach Dan Lanning. The quarterback might be the NFL’s No. 1 overall pick next spring, and his weapons on offense are as good as any in college football. That firepower proves too much for USC, which gets beat at home for the first time since November 2024.

Losing to Oregon would be a bitter pill for a young team to swallow. And it would also be a particularly bad time to start spiraling. Because the next three weeks are all losable games. Washington has a mobile quarterback (Demond Williams) capable of wreaking havoc on USC’s defense if its front seven can’t keep him contained. And while we don’t know what to expect from new coach Matt Campbell and Penn State, the White Out at Beaver Stadium a week later will be no joke. Even Wisconsin shouldn’t be overlooked two weeks after that. Especially at Camp Randall.

There’s a world in which USC has lost three of four, we’ll spot them a win at Wisconsin, after starting the season 3-0. That slump could be an absolute back-breaker. Because guess who looms after that?

Oh, just Ohio State and Indiana.

Pretty bleak, right?

Suddenly, in this most demoralizing scenario, USC is out of the Playoff picture at the halfway point of the season. The positive vibes around Gary Patterson’s hire are gone, and a significant segment of the fanbase will have resigned themselves to never seeing a good USC defense again in their lifetimes.

The conversation around Riley’s future will have reached a fevered pitch. The seat will have gotten scorching hot. The Trojans would now be playing for their coach’s job. The pressure, on a particularly young team, would be immense.

And then, Ohio State comes to town. The Buckeyes have lost three times on the road in the last two seasons, compared to just once at home. But those three road losses were either in the postseason to a top-two team, at Oregon or the inexplicable 2024 loss to a far inferior Michigan team in The Game. Chalk this up to a loss, as Ohio State tramples over both of USC’s fronts.

Indiana, meanwhile, has yet to lose a home game in two years under Curt Cignetti. I don’t expect that to change this year, either.

So with losses to Ohio State and Indiana — and a presumably smooth win at Maryland — USC would be 6-5 heading into the crosstown rivalry. And I think we can all agree that no scenario would be more of a worse case for USC than UCLA emerging from its first season under Bob Chesney as the better-trending program between the two.

I don’t think that’s where this season is headed. This is an absolute worst-case scenario, after all. The schedule does give USC serious spiral potential. And stranger things have happened in the crosstown rivalry.

But if USC were to end this season at 6-6, with a baffling loss to the Bruins, I think I can say pretty confidently that the whole program will be headed in a new direction after that.

Will Ryon Sayeri remain USC’s kicker this season?

(Kenneth Richmond / Getty Images)

—Is USC’s starting offensive line already set? It’s starting to feel that way. The season-ending injury to center Kilian O’Connor limited USC’s options, with Tobias Raymond now almost assuredly set to step in there. But from what we’ve seen in open periods, there hasn’t been much movement elsewhere. Hayden Treter has been the preferred option at left guard, while Alani Noa has primarily been at right guard. Elijah Paige and Justin Tauanuu have once again been the bookends at tackle. Whether that’ll be the case by the midway point of the season, we’ll see, but USC seems confident with Treter and Noa flanking Raymond on the interior.

—Could USC make a change at kicker? Riley would like us to believe that it’s definitely a possibility, despite the fact that last season’s All-Big Ten third-team kicker Ryon Sayeri has returned. Sayeri wasn’t going to get the job last year until former Nevada Las Vegas kicker and freshman All-American Caden Chittenden got injured and relinquished it with Sayeri’s strong play. “I don’t know that I’ve ever been in a situation as a coach where you have like two guys that you believe in as much as I believe in them,” Riley said. Still, it would be bold to replace a guy who was as consistent as Sayeri was for most of last season.

—USC football got its Class of 2028 quarterback. Trey Wright is currently just the 25th-ranked passer in the class, according to 247 Sports. But Riley, who prefers to offer just one quarterback in each class, clearly sees something in the Frisco, Texas, signal-caller. Wright certainly piled up stats as a sophomore, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 38 touchdowns while rushing for nearly 1,800 yards and 16 touchdowns. The comparisons with Kyler Murray were natural even before the Vikings quarterback, who won a Heisman with Riley, sent Wright a video that he posted on social media. Wright is just 5 feet 10 and 175 pounds. But he looks like a heck of an athlete.

—Most of USC’s starting lineup for next hoops season is injured right now. Which is not exactly … ideal. But only center Eric Reibe is expected to miss real time into the season. Georgetown transfer KJ Lewis’ ankle should be healed by the start of the season in November. He’s expected to start playing live five-on-five in October. Rodney Rice (shoulder) should be good to go before that, while other key contributors have battled through bumps and bruises this summer. Reibe’s situation is especially odd. He sought a second opinion on his foot injury, according to a person familiar with the decision, and was told to sit out the summer to try to avoid surgery. Well, he ended up getting the surgery anyway, losing seven weeks of potential recovery time.

Polling the people

This is obviously a critical season for Riley’s future, and everyone seems to have a number in mind of what it’ll take for Riley to keep his job.

So, what is the fewest number of wins you’d accept from Riley and USC without calling for a change?

6 wins
7 wins
8 wins
9 wins
10 wins/Playoff appearance

Click here to vote in our survey

What I’m watching this week

Emmy Rossum in “Furious.”

(Sarah Shatz / Disney)

You don’t see many female serial killers — estimates historically range around just 8% to 12% — but that premise is a thrilling starting point for Hulu’s new cat-and-mouse crime thriller, “Furious.” Emmy Rossum stars as Alice Black, a female FBI agent who’s tasked with tracking down a sex trafficking survivor who has taken to murdering the men who abused her.

But the show gets much deeper than that, as lines start to blur between what’s right and wrong and who’s the actual villain in the story. Only a few episodes are out so far, but what I’ve seen so far suggests we might be looking back on this show as one of the best of 2026.

In case you missed it

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava pushes to use his voice as he enters his third season

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.