Russian

Ukraine braced for more attacks on its energy infrastructure this week as winter temperatures continued to fall to -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit), and sought to adapt its defences against Russian drones.

On Thursday, Ukraine’s energy minister, Denys Shmyal, warned Ukrainians to prepare for more power blackouts in the coming days as Russian air attacks continued.

Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said Russia had struck energy infrastructure 217 times this year. Shmyal said 200 emergency crews were working to restore power to 1,100 buildings in Kyiv alone.

Russia has been targeting Ukrainian power stations, gas pipelines and power cables since mid-January, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without heat or electricity at various points.

On January 29, US President Donald Trump told a cabinet meeting that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to halt strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for a week, something the Kremlin confirmed.

“I personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and various towns for a week, and he agreed to do that,” Trump said.

It was unclear when that conversation happened, exactly, but on Tuesday this week, Russia unleashed one of its biggest strikes ever on energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv, deploying 71 missiles and 450 drones.

Ukraine’s Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said Ukraine had only managed to shoot down 38 of the missiles because a very high proportion of them were ballistic.

Russia’s defence ministry claimed it was targeting storage sites for unmanned aerial vehicles, defence enterprises and their energy supply.

The strike coincided with a visit to Kyiv by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and came a day before tripartite talks among Russia, Ukraine and the US resumed in Abu Dhabi.

“Last night, in our view, the Russians broke their promise,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his news conference with Rutte. “So, either Russia now thinks that a week is less than four days instead of seven, or they are genuinely betting only on war.”

The strike also came just as Kyiv had managed to reduce the number of apartment buildings without heat from 3,500 three days earlier, to about 500.

At least two people, both aged 18, were killed as they walked on a street in Zaporizhzhia, southeast Ukraine.

Even on relatively quiet days, Russia causes civilian deaths. On Sunday, February 1, Russia killed a dozen miners when a drone struck the bus that was taking them to work in Ukraine’s central Dnipro region.

Evolving drone tactics

During the few days in which it did observe the moratorium on energy-related strikes, Russia focused on striking Ukrainian logistics instead and made attempts to extend the reach of its drones.

Ukrainian Defence Ministry Adviser on Technology and Drone Warfare Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported that Russian drones were striking Ukrainian trucks 50km (31 miles) from the front line. He also said Russia had adapted its Geran drone to act “as a carrier” for smaller, first-person view (FPV) drones, doubling up two relatively cheap systems for greater range.

Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne said Russia had begun these new tactics in mid-January.

Ukraine’s Air Force has managed to down about 90 percent of Russia’s long-range drones, and a high proportion of its missiles – almost 22,000 targets in January alone.

Zelenskyy recently demanded better results, however, and one of the Ukrainian responses to Russian tactics has been a new, short-range “small air defence” force that uses drones to counter drones.

“Hundreds of UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] crews have already been transferred to the operational control of the Air Force grouping – they are performing tasks in the first and second echelons of interception,” wrote Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii on Wednesday this week.

Ukraine’s second response has been to disable Russian Starlink terminals, which Russia uses extensively on the battlefield, and has recently begun mounting on UAVs.

Starlink uses low-orbit satellites and is impervious to jamming, allowing Russia to change a drone’s intended target while it is in mid-flight.

Ukraine’s newly installed defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, has been creating a “white list” of Starlink terminals used by the armed forces of Ukraine, and sent them to Starlink owner Elon Musk, asking him to keep these operational while shutting down all others in the Ukraine theatre.

“Soon, only verified and registered terminals will operate in Ukraine. Everything else will be disconnected,” Fedorov wrote on Telegram.

“Looks like the steps we took to stop the unauthorized use of Starlink by Russia have worked. Let us know if more needs to be done,” Musk wrote on Twitter on Sunday.

Fedorov and Beskrestnov have been asking Ukrainian soldiers and civilians to register any Starlink terminals they acquire privately on the white list.

More sanctions on the way

On the day of Russia’s large strike, Zelenskyy appealed to the US to pass a bill long in the making that would impose more sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. China is the biggest, followed by India.

The previous day, Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to stop buying Russian oil. “He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine,” he wrote on his social media platform.

A Russian government source told Reuters that an assumed 30 percent drop in oil sales to India, and lower sales to other customers, could triple Moscow’s planned budget deficit this year from 1.6 percent of GDP to 3.5 percent or 4.4 percent. Government data released on Wednesday showed the Kremlin’s revenues from energy at $5.13bn in January, half the level of January 2025.

Zelenskyy also discussed a 20th sanctions package under preparation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “We can already see what is happening to the Russian economy and what could follow if the pressure is applied effectively,” he said.

Russia has made little headway in its ground war in the past three years, a fact repeatedly documented, most recently by a CSIS report. Despite this, its top officials continued to insist last week on terms of peace that would force Ukraine to give up control of four of its southeastern regions, cut down its armed forces and agree not to join NATO – terms Ukraine refuses.

The resumed talks in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday yielded only a prisoner-of-war exchange of 157 a side.

Italy has foiled “Russian origin” cyber-attacks targeting the Winter Olympics, says Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.

He said websites linked to the Games, hotels in host town Cortina d’Ampezzo and foreign ministry facilities, including an embassy in Washington, were targeted.

Cortina d’Ampezzo, one of five host clusters for the Olympics, will stage alpine skiing, biathlon, curling, and sliding events.

“We prevented a series of cyber-attacks against foreign ministry sites. These are actions of Russian origin,” said Tajani.

The Games officially begin on Friday, although the first action got under way on Wednesday.

New Delhi, India – When US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India on Monday this week, he declared that New Delhi would pivot away from Russian energy as part of the agreement.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump said, had promised to stop buying Russian oil, and instead buy crude from the United States and from Venezuela, whose president, Nicolas Maduro, was abducted by US special forces in early January. Since then, the US has effectively taken control of Venezuela’s mammoth oil industry.

In return, Trump dialled down trade tariffs on Indian goods from an overall 50 percent to just 18 percent. Half of that 50 percent tariff was levied last year as punishment for India buying Russian oil, which the White House maintains is financing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

But since Monday, India has not publicly confirmed that it has committed to either ceasing its purchase of Russian oil or embracing Venezuelan crude, analysts note. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, told reporters on Tuesday that Russia had received no indication of this from India, either.

And switching from Russian to Venezuelan oil will be far from straightforward. A cocktail of other factors – shocks to the energy market, costs, geography, and the characteristics of different kinds of oil – will complicate New Delhi’s decisions about its sourcing of oil, they say.

So, can India really dump Russian oil? And can Venezuelan crude replace it?

What is Trump’s plan?

Trump has been pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil for months. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the US and European Union placed an oil price cap on Russian crude in a bid to limit Russia’s ability to finance the war.

As a result, other countries including India began buying large quantities of cheap Russian oil. India, which before the war sourced only 2.5 percent of its oil from Russia, became the second-largest consumer of Russian oil after China. It currently sources around 30 percent of its oil from Russia.

Last year, Trump doubled trade tariffs on Indian goods from 25 percent to 50 percent as punishment for this. Later in the year, Trump also imposed sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies – and threatened secondary sanctions against countries and entities that trade with these firms.

Since the abduction of Maduro by US forces in early January, Trump has effectively taken over the Venezuelan oil sector, controlling sales cash flows.

Venezuela also has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at 303 billion barrels, more than five times larger than those of the US, the world’s largest oil producer.

But while getting India to buy Venezuelan oil makes sense from the US’s perspective, analysts say this could be operationally messy.

How much oil does India import from Russia?

India currently imports nearly 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude, according to analytics company Kpler. Under Trump’s mounting pressure, that is lower than the average 1.21 million bpd in December 2025 and more than 2 million bpd in mid-2025.

One barrel is equivalent to 159 litres (42 gallons) of crude oil. Once refined, a barrel typically produces about 73 litres (19 gallons) of petrol for a car. Oil is also refined to produce a wide variety of products, from jet fuel to household items including plastics and even lotions.

Has India stopped Russian oil purchases?

India has reduced the amount of oil it buys from Russia over the past year, but it has not stopped buying it altogether.

Under increasing pressure from Trump, last August, Indian officials called out the “hypocrisy” of the US and EU pressuring New Delhi to back off from Russian crude.

“In fact, India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict,” Randhir Jaiswal, India’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said then. He added that India’s decision to import Russian oil was “meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer”.

Despite this, Indian refiners, currently the second-largest group of buyers of Russian oil after China, are reportedly winding up their purchases after clearing current scheduled orders.

Major refiners like Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL), and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) halted purchasing from Russia following the US sanctions against Russian oil producers last year.

Other players like Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Reliance Industries will soon stop their purchases.

What happens if India suddenly stops buying Russian oil?

Even if India wanted to stop importing Russian oil altogether, analysts argue it would be extremely costly to do so.

In September last year, India’s oil and petroleum minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, told reporters that it would also sharply push up energy prices and fuel inflation. “The world will face serious consequences if the supplies are disrupted. The world can’t afford to keep Russia off the oil market,” Puri said.

Analysts tend to agree. “A complete cessation of Indian purchases of Russian oil would be a major disruption. An immediate halt would spike global prices and threaten India’s economic growth,” said George Voloshin, an independent energy analyst based in Paris.

Russian oil would likely be diverted more heavily towards China and into “shadow” fleets of tankers that deliver sanctioned oil secretly by flying false flags and switching off location equipment, Voloshin told Al Jazeera. “Mainstream tanker demand would shift toward the Atlantic Basin, most likely increasing global freight rates as a result,” he noted.

Sumit Pokharna, vice president at Kotak Securities, noted that Indian refineries have reported robust margins in the last two years, majorly benefitting from the discounted Russian crude.

“If they move to higher-costing, like the US or Venezuela, then raw material cost would increase, and that would squeeze their margins,” he told Al Jazeera. “If it goes beyond control, they may have to pass the excess onto consumers.”

Can India stop buying Russian oil altogether?

It may not be able to. One of India’s two private refiners, Nayara Energy, is majority-Russian-owned and under heavy Western sanctions. The Russian energy firm Rosneft holds a 49.13 percent stake in the company, which operates a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery in India’s Gujarat, PM Modi’s home state.

Nayara is the second-largest importer of Russian crude, buying about 471,000 barrels per day in January this year, accounting for nearly 40 percent of Russian supplies to India.

Its plant has relied solely on Russian crude since European Union sanctions were imposed on the company last July.

Nayara is not planning to load Russian oil in April as it shuts its refinery for more than a month for maintenance from April 10, according to Reuters.

Pokharna said the future of Nayara hangs in the balance, with the US unlikely to grant India an overt exemption for the Russia-backed company to import crude.

Can India switch to Venezuelan oil?

India has been a major consumer of Venezuelan oil in the past. At its peak, in 2019, India imported $7.2bn of oil, accounting for just under 7 percent of total imports. That stopped after the US slapped sanctions on Venezuelan oil, but some officials of the government-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation are still stationed in the Latin American country.

Now, major Indian refiners have said they are open to receiving Venezuelan oil again, but only if it is a viable option.

For one thing, Venezuela is roughly twice as far from India as Russia and five times further than the Middle East, meaning much higher freight costs.

Venezuelan oil is more expensive as well. “Russian Urals [a medium-heavy crude blend] has been trading at a wide-ranging discount of about $10-20 per barrel to Brent, while Venezuelan Merey currently offers a smaller discount of around $5-8 per barrel,” Voloshin told Al Jazeera.

“Importing from Venezuela and forgoing the Russian discount would be a costly affair for India,” said Pokharna. “From transportation cost to forgoing discounts, it could cost India $6-8 more per barrel – and that is a huge increase in the importing bill.”

Overall, a complete pivot away from Russia could raise India’s import bill by $9bn to $11bn – an amount roughly equal to India’s federal health budget – per year, according to Kpler.

“Venezuelan crude must be discounted by at least $10 to $12 per barrel to be competitive,” argued Voloshin. “This deeper discount is necessary to offset the much higher freight costs, increased insurance premiums for the longer Atlantic voyage, and the somewhat higher operational expenses required to process Venezuela’s extra-heavy high-sulfur crude.”

Without deeper discounts, the longer journey and complex handling make Venezuelan oil more expensive on a delivered basis, he added.

Another major issue is that many Indian refiners simply do not have the facilities to process very heavy Venezuelan oil.

Venezuelan crude is a heavy, sour oil, thick and viscous like molasses, with a high sulphur content requiring complex, specialised refineries to process it into fuel. Only a small number of Indian refineries are equipped to handle it.

“[Venezuelan oil’s heaviness] makes it an option only for complex refineries, leaving out older and smaller refineries,” Pokharna told Al Jazeera. “The shift is operationally difficult and would require blending with more expensive light crudes.”

Then there is the question of availability. Today, Venezuela produces barely a million barrels per day when pushed to its limit. Even if all production was sent to India, it would not match the total Russian oil import.

Where else could India buy oil?

India’s Minister Puri has said that New Delhi is looking to diversify sourcing options from nearly 40 countries.

As India has reduced Russian imports, it has increased them from Middle Eastern nations and other countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Now, while Russia accounts for nearly 27 percent share in India’s oil imports, OPEC nations, led by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, contribute 53 percent.

Reeling from Trump’s trade war, India has also increased purchases of US oil. American crude imports to India rose by 92 percent from April to November in 2025 to nearly 13 million tons, compared to 7.1 million in the same period in 2024.

However, India would be competing for these supplies with the European Union, which has pledged to spend $750bn by 2028 on US energy and nuclear products.

Meanwhile, for Venezuela to return to higher production, Caracas needs political stability, changes in foreign investment and oil laws, and to clear debts. That will take time, experts say.

Moscow ‘strongly condemns’ attack on airport in the capital, Niamey, where 20 rebels were killed, and four soldiers were wounded.

Russian soldiers helped repel an attack claimed by the ISIL (ISIS) armed group on Niger’s main airport in the capital, Niamey, last week, according to Moscow’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“The attack was repelled through the joint efforts of the Russian Ministry of Defence’s African Corps and the Nigerien armed forces,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday.

Niger’s governing military earlier said that “Russian partners” had helped to fend off the rare assault on the capital, which saw 20 attackers, including a French national, killed and four army soldiers wounded.

At least 11 fighters were also captured, Niger’s state television reported.

“Moscow strongly condemns this latest extremist attack,” the Foreign Ministry added in the statement, according to Russia’s state TASS news agency.

“A similar attack took place in September 2024 on the international airport in the capital of Mali. According to available information, external forces providing instructor and technical support are involved,” the ministry said, according to TASS.

Niger’s military chief, Abdourahamane Tchiani, visited the Russian military base in Niamey to express “personal gratitude for a high-level of professionalism” by Russian forces in defending the airport, the ministry added.

ISIL claimed responsibility for the “surprise and coordinated attack” on the airbase at the Diori Hamani international airport near Niamey on the night of January 28.

A video published online through the ISIL-affiliated media Amaq showed several dozen attackers with assault rifles firing near an aircraft hangar and setting ablaze one plane before leaving on motorbikes.

Ulf Laessing, the head of the Sahel programme at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation, told The Associated Press news agency that the sophistication and boldness of the attack, including the possible use of drones by the attackers, suggest that the assailants may have had inside help.

Previous successful attacks in the region appear to have increased the group’s confidence, leading them to target more sensitive and strategically important sites, Laessing said.

Niger’s military had initially accused Benin, France and the Ivory Coast of sponsoring the attack on the airport, which also houses a military base. The military, however, did not provide evidence to substantiate its claim.

Ivory Coast’s Foreign Ministry denied the allegation and summoned Niger’s ambassador to relay its protest. Benin also denied the claim, describing it as “not very credible”.

France has yet to comment.

Niger is a former colony of France, which maintained a military presence in the country until 2023.

Russia rarely comments on its military activity in the Sahel region, where Moscow has been increasing its influence in recent years.

Facing isolation since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has tried to build new military and political partnerships across Africa.

Apart from Niger, Russian troops or military instructors have been reported to be deployed in Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea, the Central African Republic and Libya.

Russia’s African Corps has taken over from the Wagner mercenary force across the continent. According to Moscow, the corps helps ” fighting terrorists” and is “strengthening regional stability” in the Sahel.

Niger’s authorities have been fighting the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the ISIL affiliate in the Sahel (EIS) for the past decade.

Feb. 2 (UPI) — A Russian drone strike in Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region has killed at least 12 miners and injured eight more, according to officials who are accusing the Kremlin of attacking unarmed civilians.

DTEK Group, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, said a Russian drone struck a bus transporting staff from its Dnipropetrovsk mine, resulting in at least 20 casualties.

“The bus was hit as it was taking miners home after their shift,” the company said in a statement.

The strike was part of a large-scale Russian assault on DTEK’s mining facilities in the region, the company said as it extended its condolences to the families and loved ones of those killed.

Maxim Teimchenko, CEO of DTEK, accused Russia of conducting “an unprovoked terrorist attack on a purely civilian target.”

“This attack marks the single largest loss of life of DTEK employees since russia’s full-scale invasion and is one of the darkest days in our history,” he said.

“Their sacrifice will never be forgotten.”

Serhii Berskresnov, a Ukraine Defense Ministry adviser, identified the weapon used in the attack on Telegram as an Iran-made Shahed drone.

Using a MESH radio modem, the drone pilot deliberately attacked the bus after spotting it on the road, he said.

The drone struck near the bus, with its blast wave forcing the driver to lose control and crash into a fence, he said, adding that as the injured were exiting the vehicle, a second Shahed drone struck.

“The operators operating from the territory of Russia 100% saw and identified the target as civilian, saw they were not military and made a conscious decision to attack,” he said.

“This is yet another act of terrorism. I have no words.”

Russia has been widely accused of committing war crimes in its nearly 3-year-old war in Ukraine. From indiscriminate attacks on civilians to executions, torture and forced deportations, Russia has been repeatedly denounced for alleged war crimes that it denies.

The International Criminal Court has formally opened a war crimes and crimes against humanity investigation into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has issued arrest warrants for Russian officials, including its authoritarian president, Vladimir Putin.

The strike was one of numerous Russian attacks across Ukraine on Sunday, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stating on X that people throughout the country were without heat and electricity. Railway infrastructure was hit in the Sumy region, he said.

During the month of January, Russia launched more than 6,000 attack drones, 5,550 guided aerial bombs and 158 missiles at Ukraine, Zelensky said.

“Virtually all of it targeted the energy sector, the railways and our infrastructure — everything that sustains normal life.”

On Saturday, Russia bombed a maternity hospital in Ukraine’s southern city of Zaporizhzhia, injuring six people, according to Prime Minister Yulia Svydenko.

“This is the nature of Russia’s war,” she said.

The attacks occurred during a cold February that has seen the temperatures drop well below freezing, according to the country’s hydrometeorological center.

The strikes come despite U.S. President Donald Trump stating last week that Putin promised him that Russia would refrain from hitting Ukraine for a week.

“I personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and the various towns for a week, and he agreed to that,” he said during a cabinet meeting without making clear which towns, cities and regions that the Russian leader had agreed not to attack.

“We’re very happy that they did it.”

Trump has been pushing since before he returned to office to end the war, which he vowed to do during his first 24 hours back in the White House.

Zelensky confirmed Sunday that dates for the next trilateral meetings for a cease-fire between the United States and Russia have been set for Wednesday and Thursday in Abu Dhabi.

“Ukraine is ready for a substantive discussion, and we are interested in ensuring that the outcome brings us closer to a real and dignified end to the war,” he said.

Russian drone strike kills 12 mine workers in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, injuring seven others.

At least 12 people have been killed in a Russian drone attack on a bus carrying miners in ​Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, the country’s energy minister said.

“Today, the enemy carried out a cynical and targeted attack on energy sector workers in the Dnipro region,” Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal posted on Telegram on Sunday.

“As a result of the terrorist attack, 12 mine workers were killed and seven more were injured.”

Police said the attack took place in the ‌city of Ternivka. Footage posted by the State Emergencies Service showed a charred bus with ‌shattered windows that had veered off ⁠the road.

Energy firm DTEK said in a statement that the killed and wounded were its employees returning from a shift.

Earlier on Sunday, regional officials said at least nine people had been wounded in Russian strikes on a maternity hospital and a residential building in the ‌southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia.

The attacks come days after United States President Donald Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to temporarily halt the targeting of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv and other cities, amid freezing temperatures that have brought widespread hardship to Ukrainians.

The Kremlin confirmed on Friday that it agreed to suspend attacks on Kyiv until Sunday, but did not reveal any further details.

Russia and Ukraine held trilateral talks with the US in the UAE capital, Abu Dhabi, last month and are expected to meet for a second round this month, amid ongoing US pressure to end their nearly four-year war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that the second round of talks ‍would take ⁠place in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday.

While Ukrainian and Russian officials have agreed in principle with Washington’s demands for a compromise, Moscow and Kyiv differ deeply over what an agreement should look like.

A central issue is whether Russia should keep or withdraw from areas of Ukraine its forces have occupied, especially Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland called the Donbas, and whether it should get land there that it has not yet captured.

From farmers protesting in Europe against a trade agreement between the European Union and the South American bloc Mercosur to deadly attacks in Pakistan’s Balochistan province that killed nearly 200 people and demonstrations in Cuba opposing threats by the United States, here is a look at the week in photos.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he plans to increase his armed forces’ lethality as part of a strategy to disarm Moscow and turn a deadlocked negotiating table.

“The task of Ukrainian units is to ensure a level of destruction of the occupier at which Russian losses exceed the number of reinforcements they can send to their forces each month,” he told military personnel on Monday.

“We are talking about 50,000 Russian losses per month, this is the optimal level,” he said.

Video analysis, Zelenskyy recently said, showed 35,000 confirmed kills in December 2025, up from 30,000 in November and 26,000 in October. But on Monday, he clarified that the 35,000 were “killed and badly wounded occupiers”, who would not be returning to the battlefield.

His commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskii, conservatively estimated “more than 33,000” confirmed kills in December.

Ukraine believes it has killed or maimed 1.2 million Russians since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently estimated that Russia had suffered 1.2mn casualties, including at least 325,000 deaths, and Ukraine up to 600,000 casualties, with as many as 140,000 deaths.

Al Jazeera cannot confirm casualty estimates from either side.

The war is currently stalemated, with Russia struggling to make meaningful territorial gains.

Russia held just more than a quarter of Ukraine a month into its full-scale war, in March 2022, according to geolocated footage.

The following month, Ukraine pushed Russian forces back from a string of northern cities – Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv – leaving Russia in possession of one-fifth of the country.

In August and September 2022, then-ground forces commander Syrskii masterminded a campaign to push Russian forces east of the Oskil River in the northern Kharkiv region, and Russia itself withdrew east of the Dnipro River in the southern region of Kherson, leaving it with 17.8 percent of the country.

In the last three years, Russia increased that number to 19.3 percent.

For almost six months, Russia has struggled to seize two towns it has almost surrounded with 150,000 troops in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

“In Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the Ukrainian Defence Forces continue to contain the enemy, which is trying to infiltrate the northern districts of both cities in small groups,” Syrskii said last week.

Russia claimed it had captured the northern city of Kupiansk last month, but Russian military reporters say Ukrainian forces have retaken control of the town and surrounded the Russian assault force within it.

The engine of war

Zelenskyy’s strategy involves increasing domestic drone production and honing the skills of drone operators, because drones now hit 80 percent of targets on the battlefield.

“In just the past year alone, 819,737 targets were hit – hit by drones. And we clearly record every single hit,” he said on Monday.

The military has instituted a point system, rewarding drone operators for the number and precision of their hits.

That reflects a system put in place in April 2024, offering financial rewards to ground troops for destroying Russian battlefield equipment, culminating in $23,000 for capturing a battle tank.

Zelenskyy appointed Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister this month, who previously served as digital transformation minister and deputy prime minister for innovation, education, science and technology.

Last week, Fedorov began to appoint his advisers. They include Serhiy Sternenko, who last year created Ukraine’s largest non-state supplier of military drones, to step up drone production. Fedorov’s former deputy at the digital transformation ministry, Valeriya Ionan, was put in charge of international collaborations, thanks to her experience with Silicon Valley giants like Google and Cisco. Fedorov also appointed Serhiy Beskrestnov as technological adviser. Beskrestnov is an expert on Russian drone and electronic warfare innovation.

Russian assaults pound Ukraine

Zelenskyy’s war aims stem in part from the fact that Russia refuses to give up its campaign to seize more of Ukraine.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to bring about a ceasefire, talks remain deadlocked over the future of Donetsk.

Russia’s worst attack against Ukrainian cities and energy facilities last week came on Saturday, involving 375 drones and 21 missiles, as Russian, US and Ukrainian delegations were negotiating a ceasefire in Abu Dhabi.

The strike left 1.2 million homes without power nationwide, including 6,000 in Kyiv.

Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said 800,000 homes in Kyiv were still without power following three previous strikes this month. “Constant enemy attacks unfortunately keep the situation from being stabilised,” he wrote on social media.

Zelenskyy told Ukrainians in an evening video address that electricity supply problems were still widespread in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro and in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions.

“We are scaling up assistance points and warming centers,” he said, adding that 174 [crews] were working to fix the damage in Kyiv alone. Shmyal said 710,000 people were still without power in Kyiv.

A Czech grassroots initiative fundraised $6m to buy hundreds of electric generators for Ukrainian households. On Friday, the European Commission said it was sending 447 generators to Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Russian drones killed three people. Two of them were a young couple in Kyiv killed when a drone struck their apartment building. Rescuers found only their four-year-old daughter alive.

“When I carried her out, the girl started crying very hard, and then she began to shake violently,” said Marian Kushnir, a journalist who was a neighbour of the couple.

At least five more people died when a drone struck a passenger train in the northern Kharkiv region, and two children and a pregnant woman were wounded when 50 drones rained down on the southern port of Odesa.

Talks in Abu Dhabi ended without a ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said before they began that Russia was not willing to compromise on any of its territorial demands.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks were focusing on the nub of disagreement between the two sides, which is Ukraine’s refusal to hand over the remaining one-fifth of Donetsk that Moscow does not control.

Talks are scheduled to continue in Abu Dhabi on Sunday, officials said.

Unvarnished truth from Zelenskyy

In a scathing speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy accused his European allies of “wait-hoping” the Russian threat would disappear after almost four years of war in Ukraine.

“Europe relies only on the belief that if danger comes, NATO will act. But no one has really seen the Alliance in action. If Putin decides to take Lithuania or strike Poland, who will respond?” Zelenskyy asked.

US President Donald Trump’s threat to take Greenland by force on January 17, he said, revealed Europe’s lack of readiness when seven Nordic countries sent 40 soldiers to the island.

“If you send 30 or 40 soldiers to Greenland – what is that for? What message does it send? What’s the message to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin? To China? And even more importantly, what message does it send to Denmark – the most important – your close ally?”

In contrast, said Zelenskyy, Trump was willing to seize Russian tankers selling sanctioned oil, and put Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on drug charges, while Putin, an indicted war criminal, remained free. “No security guarantees work without the US,” he said.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte echoed those sentiments in a speech to the European Parliament on Monday [January 26].

“If anyone thinks here . . . that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming,” he said. “You can’t.”

As both sides in the war in Ukraine continue their campaigns of long-range drone attacks, the Ukrainian government’s internal security agency has released a compilation of strikes directed against Russian airbases. The video, published by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), records drone strikes against Russian military aircraft by its special forces unit, the “Alpha Group,” also known as “A” Special Operations Center.

“The enemy is used to feeling safe in the deep rear. But for the special forces of “Alpha,” distance has long ceased to matter,” the SBU wrote in a post accompanying the video on social media.

The footage shows several Russian aircraft being targeted, from the perspective of the attacking drones. It appears that most, if not all, of these strikes were previously claimed, and some have been previously seen in the form of video stills. But the end result is certainly impressive, presuming all of the targeted aircraft were damaged or destroyed — which is far from clear from these videos.

The SBU claims that the total value of the damage was more than $1 billion, although it’s far from clear how this was calculated, especially since some of the airframes in question are decades old and no longer in production. It’s also notable that the SBU figure includes damage inflicted on ammunition and fuel depots at the airfields in question.

Regardless, the 15 aircraft claimed targeted by the SBU appear to comprise:

From what can be seen, the An-26 appears to have been damaged beyond repair, while one Su-24 seems to have had at least its tail section damaged; available satellite imagery may show a destroyed Su-24, but the quality of the imagery means that it can’t be determined for sure.

These aircraft were targeted at five different airfields, the SBU stated, without disclosing their exact locations.

However, based on open-source analysis, it seems that the targeted bases included Belbek, Kirovskoye, Saky, and Simferopol, all in Russian-occupied Crimea.

The growing threat of attacks like these on airbases has prompted Russia to build new hardened aircraft shelters and embark on additional construction to help shield aircraft from drone strikes and other indirect fire. This is part of a broader push by the Russian military to improve physical defenses at multiple airfields following the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The highlighted airfield raids in the video are part of a wider Ukrainian drone campaign carried out last year, in which the SBU also targeted Russian air defense systems, radar installations, and critical energy infrastructure.

As far as air defense systems are concerned, the SBU claims that it destroyed Russian equipment worth an estimated $4 billion last year. These included S-300, S-350, and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, as well as advanced radar systems such as the Nebo-M, Podlet, and Protivnik-GE.

In 2025, Ukraine also carried out the spectacular Operation Spiderweb, a large-scale Ukrainian drone strike against airbases across Russia in June. This targeted Moscow’s fleet of strategic bombers and saw a reported 117 drones launched against at least four airfields.

New footage from Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb hitting Russian bombers

Notable also is the fact that the specific Ukrainian campaign against Russian airfields is something that was brought up by U.S. President Donald Trump in a telephone call with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, last summer. The timing of that call suggests that Operation Spiderweb prompted that discussion.

Lots of people are reposting this Trump Truth Social post as if it’s recent (in part because Ukraine just released another video of hitting parked Russian warplanes), but it is in fact from last summer. pic.twitter.com/8jodT8bm7H

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) January 29, 2026

Ukraine’s ability to strike high-value Russian targets at considerable range has been bolstered through the addition of long-range cruise missiles, as well as an expanding inventory of attack drones, both large and small.

Meanwhile, SBU is continuing its long-range drone strikes.

Overnight on January 13, the security agency teamed up with the Ukrainian Navy to attack a drone production facility in Taganrog, where several production halls appear to have been destroyed, based on satellite analysis.

Ukrainian Defenders destroyed several warehouses of Atlant Aero plant in Taganrog, Russia. Combat drones and their parts were produced there.

Glory! pic.twitter.com/P6RcfpXtbl

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 16, 2026

The facility in question, the Atlant Aero factory, is responsible, among others, for producing Russia’s Molniya loitering munition, widely used in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reportedly hit a Russian drone factory in the city of Taganrog tonight, setting it ablaze.

Multiple explosions were reported at the Atlant drone company, manufacturer of the Molniya-series attack drones. pic.twitter.com/yr3SA3b7gV

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) January 13, 2026

Drones being used to strike enemy facilities producing drones is very much indicative of the path the war has taken, when it comes to the increasing use and diversity of uncrewed systems across all fronts.

For its part, Russia employed a BM-35 loitering munition to attack what was claimed by some observers to be a Ukrainian F-16 fighter at Kanatove Air Base in Ukraine’s Kirovohrad region, on January 26. In fact, the target was either a decoy or a ground-instructional aid, something that even Russia’s Rubicon Drone Operations Center attested to.

This is not the first time that a Russian drone strike has claimed a Ukrainian aircraft mock-up, but again demonstrates the potential vulnerability of airfields to these kinds of attacks.

Notably, too, the BM-35 drone used in the strike is reported to use satellite connectivity via Starlink, allowing operators to control it in real time over long distances.

The SBU’s latest ‘greatest hits’ compilation underscores how drone attacks on Russian military aircraft are one of its highest priorities and one that we will certainly see targeted again in the months to come.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com