Russian

Russian, Belarusian athletes and officials will be prevented from entering Canada regardless of their visa status.

Canada says it will prevent Russian athletes and officials from entering the country for ice hockey’s World Junior Championship in Alberta, effectively barring their participation weeks before the tournament begins.

Canada’s Secretary of State for Sport Adam van Koeverden said on Wednesday that Ottawa opposes Russian and Belarusian participation in international sport “as long as Russia continues its war of aggression against Ukraine with Belarus’s complicity”.

The minister for immigration, refugees and citizenship “will take measures to individually assess and prevent Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials from entering Canada to compete, regardless of whether they already hold valid visas”, Van Koeverden said.

Hockey Canada has previously said it supports the government’s position.

Late last month, the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) ordered the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) to admit Russian teams to five upcoming championships, beginning with the World Junior Championship.

The IIHF, which has barred Russia from most international competitions since Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, said it disagreed with the CAS decision.

The hockey federation’s statement followed announcements from Norway, Denmark, Sweden and the Czech Republic that ⁠⁠their national teams will refuse to play against Russia at next year’s men’s World Championships in Germany.

Latvia and Finland have also said their teams will not play Russia, while the Finnish city of Turku threatened to ⁠⁠drop its hosting duties for the 2028 World Junior Championship.

Belarus’s team will not participate in the championship following a separate decision by the IIHF.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has previously said Ottawa would not permit Russian athletes to compete for their country on Canadian soil, a statement some perceived as keeping the door open for their participation as neutrals.

Van Koeverden said Canada allowed neutral participation only by individual athletes, ruling out the option for the Russian team.

“Canada’s position is unequivocal: as long as Russia continues its war of aggression against Ukraine, there can be no return to business as usual,” he said. “Canada will continue to stand with Ukraine.”

The World Junior Championship runs from December 26 to January 5.

Kongsberg Maritime has unveiled a new fully uncrewed surface vessel (USV) design, which is based on a hardy fishing vessel, intended to meet the Royal Navy’s emerging Type 92 requirement. It calls for autonomous platforms to persistently hunt Russian submarines in the increasingly contested waters of the North Atlantic and Arctic.

Dubbed the Arctic Hunter USV, the vessel combines a proven commercial ship design with Kongsberg Maritime’s remote-control and autonomous technologies. It is being developed around an anti-submarine warfare (ASW) mission, with a particular emphasis on providing persistent underwater surveillance in the High North.

The announcement, made November 9, comes as the Royal Navy moves ahead with its broader Hybrid Navy concept, which will see uncrewed vessels and other autonomous systems operate alongside traditional crewed warships and aircraft. The Type 92 is one of four new uncrewed vessel types envisioned under this effort, which is intended to significantly expand the fleet’s overall sensing and weapons capacity.

Bruce Balchin of Kongsberg Maritime, which is headquartered in Norway, told TWZ that the Arctic Hunter concept emerged from the Royal Navy’s stated desire to address the submarine threat in the High North with capabilities that could be delivered quickly and in significant numbers, using commercial shipyards.

“We’ve been following the Royal Navy’s Hybrid Fleet and some of the statements that have been coming from the First Sea Lord,” Balchin explained. “The immediate threat is submarines in the High North. I need things at mass to be delivered at mass and at pace. I need commercial shipyards.”

Kongsberg’s response was to look at an existing commercial vessel design that could be adapted to tow a powerful submarine-hunting sonar. Rather than developing a new military ship, the company saw an opportunity to repurpose an Arctic fishing vessel, replacing its fishing equipment with the systems needed for ASW surveillance.

The resulting Arctic Hunter is based on an existing 184-foot hull design. Kongsberg plans to remove the wheelhouse and fish-processing factory, freeing up space for the military mission systems and equipment needed to operate the vessel remotely.

“Replace towing fish with towing sonar,” Balchin said, describing the basic concept. “It’s not a stretch to say we straight away got a vessel which is hardened to that environment, used to working at that sea state.”

There are other advantages to starting with a fishing vessel, too. These ships are already designed to operate for extended periods in demanding Arctic conditions, with relatively straightforward maintenance requirements. They also have the machinery, power generation, and internal volume needed to support substantial mission equipment.

The platform is being designed around a relatively high-performance towed array, the Sonar 2087, developed by Thales Underwater Systems. The Type 92 is intended to provide a significant extension of the Royal Navy’s ASW sensing capabilities, and Kongsberg believes that requires a substantial towed array.

Sonar 2087 already equips Royal Navy Type 23 frigates and will be carried aboard its forthcoming Type 26 ASW frigates.

Another critical consideration is the vessel’s acoustic signature. A sonar platform needs to be quiet enough that its own machinery and propellers do not interfere with its ability to detect submarines.

“You can have the best sonar in the world, but if you’ve got a very noisy ship, it drowns out everything else you’re trying to find,” Balchin said. “You need a very quiet platform to maximize the performance of your sonar.”

Kongsberg has considerable experience in this area, having designed propellers for the Royal Navy’s Type 23 and Type 26 frigates. The company has applied some of that expertise to the Arctic Hunter, optimizing its hull and propeller design to reduce underwater radiated noise (URN).

The fishing vessel design already offered a relatively quiet platform, partly because of the requirements of its original mission. Kongsberg says it is further improving that performance for the ASW role.

The Arctic Hunter also draws on technology from another Kongsberg project called Reach Remote, an existing uncrewed offshore vessel that operates in the North Atlantic, deploying remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) for survey work.

Reach Remote: Powered by partnership, proven by performance

Rather than developing an entirely new autonomous control system, Kongsberg intends to transfer the proven remote-operation technology from Reach Remote into the Arctic Hunter platform.

“We’re taking a proven platform, proven flag-approved remote autonomy technology with a proven sonar, and then we’ve also added on another layer of military communications,” Balchin said.

Those communications will be designed to provide secure connectivity in the contested and degraded environments expected in the High North.

Kongsberg is designing the Arctic Hunter for up to 60 days at sea without human intervention aboard. The company’s existing Reach Remote vessels already operate for around 30 days at a time, providing a basis for extending that endurance.

The vessel is uncrewed by design, rather than being a conventional ship subsequently adapted to operate without a crew, and this has significant implications for its layout and cost.

“Putting anybody on it for any period of time massively complicates a ship and adds significant costs,” Balchin explained, pointing to the need for accommodation, a galley, water supplies, and other systems required to support a human crew.

Engineers may occasionally board the vessel for maintenance or servicing, but its normal operation will be controlled from shore.

The initial concept is deliberately focused on a relatively straightforward ASW sensing mission. Balchin described this as a “minimum viable capability,” intended to get additional submarine-hunting sensors into the High North as quickly as possible.

Initially, the Arctic Hunter vessels could operate as an uncrewed flotilla, collecting underwater surveillance data and transmitting it to military decision-makers in the United Kingdom. This would provide the Royal Navy with additional sensing capacity without requiring the vessels to operate directly alongside crewed warships from the outset.

Over time, however, Kongsberg sees the vessels working more closely with the Type 26 frigates as those warships enter service.

“Type 26 at the core, and these acting as autonomous wingmen,” is how Balchin described the longer-term concept.

This would give the Royal Navy considerable flexibility in how it deploys the vessels, allowing them to operate independently or as part of a wider ASW formation. It could also help address gaps in the existing frigate fleet by providing additional sensing assets that do not require a crewed warship to remain continuously on station.

Although the Arctic Hunter is being developed primarily as a sensor platform, its design has considerable room for additional capabilities. Balchin highlighted the vessel’s installed power, payload capacity, and unused internal volume as factors that could allow it to accommodate other mission systems.

“We have resisted the temptation to go on flights of fancy at this time around what else it could do, and instead stick to that very simple: we want to get a program of record in quickly,” he said.

The vessel’s potential flexibility could nevertheless be attractive to other navies. Balchin emphasized that the underlying platform is not inherently tied to British systems. For the U.K. Type 92 requirement, it would carry sovereign British sonar and secure military communications, but other customers could select their own equipment.

“If America said, ‘I want to tow a different sonar, and I’d like to have an American communication system in there,’ that’s very easy as well,” he said. It’s worth noting that a version of the Sonar 2087, known as CAPTAS-4, had been planned for the U.S. Navy’s now-canceled Constellation class frigate. The FF(X) that has superseded it currently lacks any built-in sonar array, fixed or towed, and other anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

Unrivalled Anti-submarine warfare with CAPTAS-4 VDS and FLASH dipping sonar – Thales

Kongsberg believes its underlying platform could therefore provide a common commercial foundation for different national requirements, with the military payload adapted to suit each customer.

For the British program, the company is working with its established shipbuilding partner Balaena Maritime, with construction planned at the latter’s Birkenhead yard.

A commercial approach to construction is central to the Arctic Hunter proposition. Fishing vessels operating in Arctic waters typically spend around six weeks at sea before returning to port to unload their catch, refuel, and undergo servicing. They then head back out again, with relatively straightforward shore-based support.

Kongsberg believes the same model can be applied to the uncrewed ASW vessels. Existing commercial shipyard infrastructure, including dry docks and slipways, could support routine maintenance, with additional facilities required for sonar and military communications servicing.

There would also be a remote operations center in the High North to control the vessels themselves. However, the more important decisions about where the flotilla should operate and how its missions should be managed would remain in the United Kingdom.

The Arctic Hunter is also being presented as a potential export product. Balchin said Kongsberg’s separation from the wider Kongsberg Group earlier this year had given the maritime business greater freedom to work with different defense companies and national partners.

For the Royal Navy, the Type 92 is part of a much broader effort to reshape how the service operates at sea. Under the Hybrid Navy concept, four new types of uncrewed vessels will take on different roles, ranging from providing additional missile capacity to extending the fleet’s ability to detect and engage threats underwater and in the air.

The move toward a fleet built around autonomous vessels represents a new venture for the Royal Navy. However, the service is already beginning to establish the operational structures needed to make that transition.

Last week, it formally commissioned its 1st Autonomous Squadron at Portsmouth, a unit of around 180 personnel that will operate uncrewed surface vessels on frontline missions. Initially equipped with Kraken and Rattler craft, the squadron is intended to develop the skills, tactics and experience needed to bring increasingly sophisticated autonomous systems into the fleet. The Type 92 and other larger uncrewed vessels would represent a significant expansion of that effort, moving beyond smaller boats toward persistent, ocean-going capabilities.

The Arctic Hunter announcement also highlights the growing emphasis on industrial cooperation between the United Kingdom and Norway in the maritime domain. The two countries have been working more closely on security in the North Atlantic and High North, including through the Lunna House agreement, which includes an ambition for both nations to lead NATO’s adoption of autonomous systems in the region.

The proposed Type 92 program also comes amid mounting concern over Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic, where Moscow’s undersea forces remain a significant threat to NATO’s maritime communications, reinforcement routes, and naval forces. Persistent uncrewed sensors could help address the challenge of maintaining surveillance over such a large area, particularly as crewed ASW platforms face competing operational demands.

Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic has been a growing worry for NATO for years, with the challenge involving not just the number of deployments but the increasingly capable boats involved. As TWZ has reported, Russian submarines are operating for longer periods and carrying more lethal weapons, while newer designs such as the Yasen class are quieter and harder to detect. In April of this year, the United Kingdom and Norway disclosed a month-long operation with Norway and other allies to track a Russian Akula class attack submarine and two small, special-missions submarines operating near critical undersea infrastructure in the North Atlantic. The episode underscored the demands placed on crewed ships and patrol aircraft to maintain persistent surveillance across the region.

For now, the Arctic Hunter represents an industrially focused proposal for a major element of the U.K.’s emerging Hybrid Navy concept. Its combination of commercial shipbuilding, autonomous vessel technology, and sovereign British ASW systems is intended to offer a relatively rapid route to expanding the Royal Navy’s underwater surveillance capacity.

More broadly, the Type 92 points toward a future fleet in which crewed warships are increasingly supported by uncrewed platforms that distribute weapons, sensors and other capabilities across a wider operating area. While embracing so much unproven technology and concepts comes with risks, the Royal Navy is betting that a combination of autonomous systems and traditional warships can deliver greater firepower, persistence, and operational reach.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

About 850,000 people lose power after Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv.

More than 600,000 people in Ukraine’s eastern Dnipropetrovsk region are without electricity after a Russian overnight attack on an energy facility, a Ukrainian energy provider has said.

Residents across the Pavlohrad, Samarivskyi, Kamianske and Dnipro districts, as well as the city of Dnipro, faced electricity outages on Sunday, power company DTEK wrote in a Telegram post.

Engineers were at the scene attempting to restore the damaged facility, but “repairs are being complicated by repeated attacks”, DTEK said.

Ukraine is bracing for yet another harsh winter of war as Russia ramps up daily aerial attacks, raining down drones and missiles on the power network.

Another 250,000 Ukrainians were left without power in the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine on Sunday after Russia struck an infrastructure facility there.

“No casualties have been reported, ” said Mykola Baksheyev, mayor of Zlatopil city, on Telegram.

“Power engineers are currently working to repair the damage; however, the exact timeframe for restoring the electricity supply remains unknown.”

The attacks came a day after Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy said a massive attack on energy facilities had plunged residents in five regions into darkness and significantly hampered electricity transmission in Kyiv.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of intensifying attacks to put pressure on Kyiv at United States-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence stated on its Telegram channel that its forces will “continue to carry out strikes against Ukrainian fuel and energy infrastructure facilities” that they say are used to aid the Ukrainian military.

Russia’s Defense Ministry has released footage showing a Mi-28NM Havoc attack helicopter firing a small, low-cost cruise missile, supposedly during combat operations in Ukraine. The video provides the clearest official indication yet that Russia is exploring a non-traditional, new launch platform for its emerging family of relatively inexpensive standoff weapons.

One missile is seen being fired from a pylon beneath the helicopter’s left-side stub wing; the helicopter returns after the mission with an unfired missile still hanging under the right-side stub wing. The Defense Ministry has not provided a date, precise location, or details about the target. Nor has it identified the weapon, which could be either the S8000 Banderol or the Dan-T, two closely related and visually very similar Russian missile developments.

The footage is not entirely unexpected. Earlier this year, photographs began circulating showing a Mi-28NM on the ground, carrying what appeared to be the same missile. There had also been unconfirmed reports from Ukraine in August that Russia was using the helicopter as a launch platform for Banderol, including firing the weapons from over the Sea of Azov against targets around Odesa.

The Banderol, developed by Russia’s Kronstadt company, was first detailed by Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) in the spring of 2025. According to GUR, the missile is approximately 16.4 feet long, has pop-out wings, and is powered by a small turbojet engine. It reportedly flies at around 310 miles per hour, has a range of up to 310 miles, and carries a warhead weighing approximately 110 pounds.

GUR’s analysis also provided a detailed rundown of the foreign components it identified in the weapon. Its production involves “around 30 companies” supplying “more than 20 key components,” with potentially additional parts that have yet to be identified. Among the components reportedly used are a small commercial Chinese SW800Pro turbojet and a Russian-made Kometa digital antenna for satellite navigation. The weapon also makes extensive use of components sourced from foreign manufacturers, including in the United States.

The other possible candidate is the Dan-T, apparently derived from the Dan-M target drone, but with a roughly 300-pound warhead added. It is also reported to have a range of around 310 miles, while costing approximately 35 percent less than the Banderol.

The Banderol first emerged publicly through Ukrainian intelligence reporting, but Moscow eventually began acknowledging the weapon. Russian state television showed it beneath the wing of a Kronstadt Orion drone in July 2026, when it was first officially presented, albeit heavily obscured.

Ukrainian reporting indicates that the weapon has already seen operational use. Between mid-May and mid-July, the Ukrainian Air Force recorded 16 strikes involving Banderol. It reported five launches in a single barrage on July 16.

There are also indications that the Dan-T could ultimately become the more widely procured weapon. Reports from Ukraine suggest that Russia’s Aerospace Forces may have decided to focus procurement on the Dan-T, with plans to acquire tens of thousands of the missiles. Unlike the Banderol, the Dan-T is also reportedly intended for launch from combat aircraft and ground-based launchers. In September, Russia was already pitching the weapon for export at the El Alamein International Airshow in Egypt.

The use of a helicopter to launch a weapon of this type is particularly unusual. A relatively slow- and low-flying platform like the Mi-28 would be much more vulnerable to enemy air defenses than a fixed-wing tactical aircraft. However, the reported range of the Banderol and Dan-T would allow the helicopter to launch well away from the intended target, potentially from across the border while remaining in Russian airspace. For comparison, the maximum range of the Kh-38 (or LMUR) missile — which is otherwise the farthest-reaching Mi-28 weapon — is a little over nine miles.

For many months now, Russia has been seeking to expand its arsenal of weapons capable of striking Ukrainian targets from standoff distances. Mounting losses of Russian tactical aircraft to Ukrainian ground-based air defenses have underscored the need for weapons that can hit targets precisely at and well behind the front lines without exposing expensive aircraft to excessive risk.

Most notably, Russia has fielded the UMPK, a fairly crude type of guided glide bomb that has caused considerable difficulties for Ukrainian air defenses since its introduction around early 2023. The UMPK series has since been followed by more refined winged precision-guided glide bombs.

However, these weapons are unpowered. The small turbojet engine fitted to the Banderol and Dan-T puts them in the cruise missile category, while their reported range of up to 310 miles is particularly significant, if accurate. That range comes at the expense of warhead size, especially when compared with larger Russian cruise missiles.

The weapons’ navigation and electronic warfare protection systems are also important considerations. An inertial navigation system, combined with a jamming-resistant satellite navigation system, should provide a degree of resilience against the kind of electronic warfare jamming that is increasingly being employed by Ukraine. Satellite navigation can also help correct for accumulated drift, an important consideration given the accuracy limitations of inertial navigation systems over longer distances.

In essence, the Banderol and Dan-T offer Russia a lower-cost, potentially higher-volume complement to its more sophisticated cruise missiles.

As we noted previously:

“The Banderol is particularly relevant in the context of the economics of the Ukraine conflict. Russian forces have increasingly used combinations of relatively inexpensive one-way attack drones and more expensive cruise and ballistic missiles. The drones can be produced in large numbers and used to complicate air-defense operations, while the more capable missiles provide greater speed, range, payload, or penetration capability. A small turbojet-powered weapon such as Banderol offers another point on that spectrum.”

The ability to launch these weapons from non-traditional platforms, including drones, attack helicopters, and potentially ground-based systems, would also give Russia greater flexibility in how it employs them. Its bomber fleets and fixed-wing tactical aircraft could concentrate on their primary roles and make use of their established weapons, while other platforms take on some of the standoff strike mission.

For the Mi-28NM, meanwhile, the ability to employ a long-range cruise missile could provide a useful additional role, particularly after the helicopter fleet has suffered heavy losses during the war in Ukraine.

According to the Oryx open-source tracking group, Russia has lost 21 Mi-28s since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago. This figure could be higher because Oryx only tabulates losses it can confirm visually. Russia began the conflict with a force of around 110 Mi-28s of all versions. Other Russian battlefield helicopter types have suffered even heavier attrition, reflecting the level of danger that rotorcraft are exposed to when close to the front lines.

⚡️Video of the destruction of the Mi-28 of the 🇷🇺Russian Air Force using an 🇺🇦FPV drone. The first recorded case pic.twitter.com/LWosDeX2Ah

— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) August 7, 2024

Russia is not alone in exploring this concept. The U.S. Marine Corps is working to give its AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters a new long-range strike capability through L3Harris’ modular Red Wolf launched-effects family. The weapon, which has already been test-fired from an AH-1Z, is being developed under the Marines’ Long Range Attack Missile (LRAM) effort, with a reported range in the low hundreds of miles. Beyond its kinetic strike role, Red Wolf can also be configured for missions such as communications relay and electronic warfare and has also been pitched for U.S. Army helicopters and tiltrotors. The effort reflects a broader push to give rotary-wing aircraft the ability to deliver precision effects well beyond the range of their traditional weapons, while raising questions about where the boundaries between cruise missiles, drones, and other launched effects are increasingly drawn.

For the Kremlin, the appeal of such weapons lies not only in their relatively low cost, but also in the ability to field them across a wider variety of platforms, further complicating Ukraine’s efforts to deal with incoming attacks.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

The Russian military has not publicly commented.

Zelensky initially put the death toll at 18, but Ukraine’s state emergencies service DSNS later said 24 people, including two rescuers and four police officers, were confirmed to have been killed.

“The Russians could not have been unaware that the local residents who remained in Komyshuvakha received humanitarian aid there every week,” the Ukrainian president wrote in a post on social media.

“This is yet another proof that Russia does not want any de-escalation.”

He said that after a recent successful joint Russian-Ukrainian operation to evacuate civilians from the Russia-occupied southern city of Oleshky during a temporary ceasefire brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump “there was a moment when the next steps could show that peace is possible”.

“With such killings, Russia is sending the exact opposite signal – Russia is counting on further killings,” Zelensky said.

Meanwhile, Semikin described the Russian attack as a “terrible tragedy” for the village, confirming that “people are still under the rubble”.

He said rescue teams were working at the scene, but they had been forced to halt their operation a number of times because of Russian drone attacks in the area.

A day of mourning has been declared for Tuesday across the entire Zaporizhzhia region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Ukraine’s president calls attack in Zaporizhia further proof that Russia does not want any ‌kind of de-escalation or justice.

A Russian ⁠bomb attack on an aid centre in Ukraine has killed 24 people, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reported.

The strikes destroyed a school used as a humanitarian centre in the village of Komyshuvakha in the southeastern region of Zaporizhia, Zelenskyy said on Monday. Five other people are reported to have been injured.

“After the first air strike, there was a repeat strike with nine more bombs, ⁠directly on the shelter ⁠where people were gathered,” the president wrote on Telegram.

“The Russians could not have been unaware that ⁠every week residents who have remained in ⁠Komyshuvakha were receiving assistance ⁠aid right there. This is yet further proof that Russia does not want any ‌kind of de-escalation, any real justice.”

Footage posted by Ukrainian emergency services showed a building reduced to piles of smouldering rubble. Rescuers were shown working at the site.

Among those killed were a police officer and two State Emergency Service rescuers, regional Governor Mykhailo Semikin reported on Telegram.

He added that 27 altogether are considered missing.

“After the humanitarian operation in Oleshky, there was a moment when the next steps could have shown that progress toward peace was possible,” Zelenskyy said on social media. “With these killings, Russia is sending an entirely opposite signal: Russia is counting on more killings.”

Elsewhere in Ukraine, emergency services reported that drone strikes injured 12 people in the eastern Kharkiv region and damaged a refrigeration facility, greenhouses and residential buildings.

Five people were also reported injured in the Black Sea port city of Odesa, where a warehouse was targeted and homes were damaged.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said that it shot down 212 Ukrainian drones overnight, while the head of Russia’s Samara region, Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev, reported local air defences had repelled an aerial attack, without giving further details.

The UN Security Council rejected the competing proposals, leaving the peacekeeping mission without an approved extension.

The United Nations peacekeeping mission in the disputed Western Sahara faces an uncertain future after competing United States and Russian resolutions failed at the UN Security Council.

Russia vetoed the US-backed proposal on Friday, despite support from 11 members of the 15-member council.

A rival Russian draft then failed to secure the nine votes needed for adoption.

The mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) is due to expire on Saturday unless the council reaches a last-minute agreement.

Western Sahara is a former Spanish colony in northwest Africa. Morocco considers the territory its own while the Algeria-backed Polisario Front seeks to establish an independent state called the Sahrawi Republic.

The UN established MINURSO in 1991 to monitor a ceasefire and prepare a referendum on the territory’s future, but disagreements over who could vote have prevented it from taking place.

The US draft would have extended the mission for a year while removing “referendum” from its name and making Morocco’s autonomy proposal the only basis for further talks.

Under that plan, the territory would manage its internal affairs but remain under Moroccan sovereignty.

The council had already made the proposal a basis for negotiations last year.

US Ambassador Mike Waltz told the council in New York on Friday that the referendum had been stalled for decades.

Russia’s UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, said at the same meeting that Moscow opposed the draft because it favoured one side.

Russia instead proposed renewing the existing mission without those changes.

Morocco’s royal palace welcomed the failure to renew MINURSO, saying on Friday that UN personnel and equipment should leave the territory.

Sidi Omar, the Polisario Front’s representative at the UN, told reporters on Friday that he welcomed Russia’s veto because the US proposal would undermine Sahrawi self-determination.

Low-level fighting has continued since Polisario said it was resuming armed struggle in 2020.

European diplomats have refused to stand for an official photo with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in the US, leading to the American hosts cancelling the planned picture.

Two officials confirmed to the BBC the cancellation of the so-called family photo scheduled for Friday morning, which would usually include representatives from all the nations in attendance.

The meeting, which gathers top diplomats from the world’s biggest economies, is being hosted in Atlanta by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Ukraine is not not a G20 member but has been invited to similar meetings in recent years. However, Ukraine was not invited to this meeting.

Relations between Ukraine and the US have been particularly tense this month, with a diplomatic standoff between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump over Kyiv’s strikes on oil infrastructure within Russia.

British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband is present and a diplomatic source confirmed the UK was among the countries which refused to participate in the picture.

One British official said: “The UK has a longstanding policy not to have direct, bilateral engagement with Russian ministers since the invasion of Ukraine and we are not about to change that”.

A US official said the photo was cancelled “after it became clear some of the delegations were unwilling to participate in a joint photo”.

“Rather than allow a ceremonial photo opportunity to become a diplomatic distraction, the US decided to forgo the photo and keep the focus on the substantive discussions,” the official said.

In contrast to Ukraine, relations between the US and Russia appear to have partially thawed in recent weeks, as Trump waived some sanctions and agreed a deal to import Russian diesel for the American market.

The move comes as Trump attempts to lower fuel prices in the US ahead of mid-term elections at the start of November, after months spent grappling with the political consequences of the Iran war.

Ukraine and its European allies have heavily criticised Trump’s deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Zelensky called it “a gift” to Putin that amounts to “an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged”.

Trump said his decision to suspend several Russian sanctions is an effort to keep Moscow at the negotiating table in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Putin has said Russia, which introduced a ban on diesel exports earlier this year, is willing to supply both the US and global markets with oil and petroleum products.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and currently controls approximately a fifth of Ukrainian territory.

Moscow has in recent weeks intensified its deadly missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

In a surprising development, Ethiopia has taken receipt of 12 Russian-made Su-35 multirole fighters, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced, adding a significant new capability to the Ethiopian Air Force. The agreement also calls for four batteries of Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile system, although their delivery schedule remains unclear.

Abiy said the fighters arrived a year ahead of schedule under an agreement with Moscow and thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for facilitating the accelerated delivery. The financial terms of the deal, the aircraft’s basing locations, and whether additional fighters are included in the agreement have not been disclosed. The Ethiopian leader announced the development on his X account, also posting photos and a video showing himself and other Ethiopian and Russian officials alongside two of the jets. The location appears to have been the third Russia-Africa Summit, taking place in Moscow on October 28-29.

The acquisition comes as Ethiopia seeks to strengthen its military capabilities amid persistent domestic security challenges and tensions across the Horn of Africa.

The Su-35 is a heavily modernized derivative of the Soviet-era Su-27, known by NATO as the Flanker. It combines twin thrust-vectoring engines for a high degree of maneuverability, advanced radar and other sensors, and the ability to carry a range of air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons.

Its radar and long-range air-to-air missile capabilities, in particular, represent a notable improvement for Ethiopia’s ability to detect and engage hostile aircraft, while its multirole design allows it to perform a wide range of strike missions.

Su-35 Multirole supermaneuverable fighter / AERO INDIA 2021

Ethiopia already operates Russian-designed Su-27 fighters, providing a considerable degree of familiarity with the Flanker family. The current fleet comprises around 10 (and perhaps as many as 15) secondhand Su-27s, including two-seaters, supplemented in 2024 by a pair of Su-30Ks. The latter were originally produced for India as interim equipment, and then ended up in storage in Belarus before being refurbished and delivered to Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Flankers saw action against Eritrean opposition in the 1990s, and there have also been a handful of non-combat attrition losses.

However, introducing the Su-35 will still require specialized pilot training, additional maintenance infrastructure, weapons integration, and a dependable supply of spare parts. The latter, in particular, is something that Moscow has not always been able to guarantee in practice.

The planned acquisition of four S-400 batteries could prove equally significant.

The S-400 is a mobile air-defense system designed to engage aircraft, cruise missiles, and certain ballistic missile threats.

If delivered, the systems would considerably strengthen Ethiopia’s ability to protect military installations, critical infrastructure, and other strategic sites against aerial attack.

Ethiopia occupies a strategically important position in the Horn of Africa, bordering Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan. Its security environment includes various unresolved regional tensions, longstanding border disputes, and internal armed conflicts.

Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea remains particularly relevant given their history of war and continuing tensions. Relations with Egypt and Sudan are also shaped by disputes over the Nile.

Abiy has presented the acquisition as a means of deterring aggression and strengthening national sovereignty.

At the same time, the delivery reinforces Russia’s position as a supplier of advanced military equipment to African countries. Russian exports to the continent have included combat aircraft, helicopters, armored vehicles, and ground-based air-defense systems.

Su-35s, specifically, have previously been delivered to Algeria, a long-term recipient of Russian military equipment on the African continent, as you can read about here.

Interesting report indicating Algeria has purchased at least some of the Russian Su-35s originally built for Egypt and later reported to be sought by Iran.https://t.co/0soV9aOopn

— John Hardie (@JohnH105) April 9, 2025

The Algerian jets are understood to have originated in a batch of Su-35s built for Egypt, which had ordered 24. However, the planned transfer to Egypt fell through, under the threat of U.S. sanctions and a teased offer of F-15s. In particular, Washington had said it would put sanctions on Cairo under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

CAATSA includes provisions for sanctions against parties found to have knowingly engaged in significant transactions with Russia’s defense or intelligence sectors. Washington previously invoked the provision against China over its acquisition of Su-35 fighters and S-400-related equipment, although any action against Ethiopia would depend on a separate U.S. determination.

The Su-35s built for Egypt were repeatedly connected with a sale to Iran, but this also never materialized.

Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the UN announced on Friday that Iran has finalized buying #Sukhoi fighter jets from Russia.

Here is what Iran has purchased: pic.twitter.com/aw7EVkc18N

— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) March 11, 2023

Potentially, the 12 jets for Ethiopia could also have been left over from the abandoned Egyptian deal.

For Moscow, the deal provides a prominent example of continued defense cooperation with an important country in the Horn of Africa. The transfer also comes amid broader efforts by Russia and African governments to deepen political, economic, and military ties.

The agreement’s cost and financing arrangements have not been made public, leaving questions about the long-term expense of operating the fighters and maintaining their supporting infrastructure.

The deal also needs to be seen in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent international sanctions, have hampered efforts to secure sales for any kind of military equipment, other than to a handful of selected close allies, with little prospect that this will change any time soon. Amid those same sanctions, as well as Moscow’s increasing pariah status, any kind of export success will be very welcome for Moscow, even if it involves jets previously built for another customer.

At the same time, the ability of the Russian defense industry to provide in-service support for these jets, once they are delivered, is even more questionable than it was in the past. Since the invasion, Moscow’s need to prioritize its own forces, combined with Western sanctions restricting access to key components, has further complicated the situation. For Ethiopia, any disruption to parts deliveries or maintenance support could have an outsized impact on operational readiness, and this is compounded by the requirement of Russian industry to support Moscow’s own Su-35S jets, its primary fighter.

Ultimately, the acquisition represents a substantial reported addition to Ethiopia’s combat aircraft fleet. The planned S-400 systems could extend that modernization into ground-based air defense, and further influence the military balance in the Horn of Africa region.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

NATO member Finland is preparing to reintroduce anti-personnel landmines into its military arsenal, with a contract for around one million examples due to be signed soon, following the country’s withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention that aims to eliminate these weapons. The move comes as Helsinki looks to strengthen its territorial defenses against a longstanding Russian threat and the prospect of a larger Russian military presence along its eastern border in the years ahead.

Finland’s withdrawal from the treaty, which prohibits the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines, took effect on January 10 of this year. Reflecting growing concern among NATO’s eastern-flank members about Russia’s military posture and the lessons of the war in Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have also moved to leave the convention.

Mines have, for many centuries, been used to complicate an attacker’s movement, slow operations, and force troops to devote time and resources to clearing obstacles. Anti-personnel mines, in particular, have long been employed in defensive campaigns, but they come with significant humanitarian risks. They can kill or maim civilians long after hostilities end, which has seen them fall foul of international humanitarian law in many countries — at least when those nations don’t see a realistic risk of invasion.

It is a measure of how badly the European security environment has deteriorated that anti-personnel mines are back on the agenda.

The Finnish Defense Forces previously said that discussions with the domestic defense industry and preparations to train military personnel would begin early this year. It has now announced that the project seeks two different types of anti-personnel mines, of Finnish manufacture.

The two weapons will comprise a modern tube mine activated by a tripwire trigger, and a pressure-activated step mine. In the future, more technically advanced mines may also be procured, including cluster-type mines of the kind deployed by Russia in Ukraine. In general, anti-personnel mines have been very widely used by both sides in that conflict, with Kyiv notably receiving them as part of U.S. air packages, as you can read about here. Neither the United States nor Russia are signatories of the Ottawa Convention.

“The aim is for production of the new anti-personnel mines to begin in Finland in 2028,” said Col. Riku Mikkonen, inspector of engineers for the Finnish Army Command.

“We have a materials procurement project underway, which is currently in the preparatory and market review phase. At the same time, we are drawing up the technical specifications for the mines,” Mikkonen added. “We will soon move on to the stage where we issue requests for tenders, so that we can eventually proceed to a competitive tendering process and conclude contracts.”

At this point, no contracts have been signed. However, once the procurement effort is underway, the Finnish Defense Forces are set to return their anti-personnel mine stockpile to what it was before acceding to the Ottawa Convention in 2012.

The first new mines and associated training equipment are expected to become available during 2027. Ultimately, all conscripts will be trained to employ anti-personnel mines. The total cost of the project is around $110 million, with the last of the mines scheduled to be delivered in the 2030s.

Helsinki has stressed that it does not intend to lay anti-personnel mines during peacetime. Mikkonen said the weapons would be used only under emergency conditions.

Finland’s decision reflects a national defense philosophy that has long been shaped by direct experience with Soviet aggression. The Soviet Union invaded Finland in 1939, beginning the Winter War, and fought another conflict with the country from 1941 to 1944. Finland lost territory but preserved its independence, subsequently maintaining conscription, a large trained reserve, and a defense strategy built around making any invasion costly.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reinforced Finnish concerns that major conventional warfare in Europe remained a realistic possibility. Finland joined NATO in April 2023, and the country shares a little over 800 miles of border with Russia.

Finland’s defensive approach traditionally emphasizes rapid mobilization to defend national territory and delay a much larger attacking force until reinforcements can arrive. The role of anti-personnel mines in that scenario is clear, being sown to slow down infantry movements and hamper advances through vulnerable areas. Their disproportionate effect, at least in theory, is especially relevant for a country with a relatively tiny population compared to the length of its border.

At the same time, anti-personnel mines would form only one part of a much broader defensive system incorporating artillery, airstrikes, engineering obstacles, fortifications, and reserve forces. It should be noted that Finland also has a considerable armory of anti-tank and anti-vehicle mines, most of which are of local manufacture.

In general, Moscow has been restructuring its military command arrangements and starting to establish the foundations for a larger conventional presence across northern Europe.

In 2024, Russia reestablished the Leningrad Military District, an apparent response to Finland’s and Sweden’s subsequent entry into NATO.

The Leningrad Military District is responsible for a strategically important region that covers the approaches to St. Petersburg, areas bordering Finland, and territory extending toward the Arctic. Its reestablishment gives Russia a dedicated command structure for managing forces facing NATO across this northern sector.

While significant, the creation of a military district does not necessarily generate additional combat power.

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to drain resources in terms of personnel, equipment, logistics, and more.

Nevertheless, Moscow’s longer-term plans point toward a substantial expansion of its ground forces and military infrastructure in areas facing Finland and the wider NATO alliance.

A central element of Russia’s reorganization is the formation of the 44th Army Corps in the Republic of Karelia, near Finland’s eastern border. The corps was established in 2024 as part of the wider effort to strengthen Russia’s military presence in the northwest.

Russia’s wider military development also encompasses the Kola Peninsula and approaches to the Arctic, where facilities support the Northern Fleet and its strategic nuclear submarine force.

Satellite imagery last year showed construction at the Lupche-Savino garrison near Kandalaksha, including facilities intended to accommodate an artillery brigade and at least part of an engineering brigade. The location is approximately 70 miles east of Finland’s border.

Earlier this year, a separate report by the Finnish Yle media outlet found that the Russian military was expanding a base in the town of Novaya Vilga to hold as many as 6,000 Russian troops. It is located about 100 miles from the Finnish border.

For Finland, the situation could change dramatically if the war in Ukraine winds down, and the Russian military assembles in greater strength closer to its borders.

Finland’s Military Intelligence Review 2026 assesses that Russia’s military reforms have not yet significantly increased its capabilities in its immediate vicinity. But it still anticipates a substantial increase in Russian military capabilities as circumstances permit and identifies Finland as a major direction for future force development after the war.

A ceasefire or settlement in Ukraine would not automatically enable Russia to launch a major offensive against Finland. A ceasefire could ease the immediate military pressure on Russia while still creating a serious economic and political challenge for the Kremlin. Russia’s wartime spending has sustained defense-sector production and employment, but winding that spending down risks exposing structural weaknesses.

With a ceasefire or settlement, Moscow would still need to rebuild units, replace equipment, replenish personnel, and establish the logistical capacity to sustain large-scale operations. However, there are indications that this is already happening, at least to a degree.

Recent imagery analysis indicates, for example, a significant buildup of newly delivered Russian armor, including new T-90M tanks, at the 22nd Central Tank Reserve Base, located around 450 miles from the Finnish border.

Finland’s planned acquisition of anti-personnel mines fits into a broader effort to prepare for a potential future conflict. Prominent in the minds of Finnish — and other Nordic — defense planners is the fact that Russia is rebuilding the command structures and infrastructure needed to support a larger military presence near NATO’s northern frontier, even as the war in Ukraine limits its immediate ability to do so.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

A Russian satellite, Kosmos 2612, may have passed within approximately 85 feet (26 meters) of a U.S.-registered satellite belonging to commercial imagery provider ICEYE. This would be an extraordinarily close and potentially dangerous pass-by for two objects in space traveling at thousands of miles per hour. For weeks beforehand, ICEYE-X36, which would be of special interest to Russia, had already found itself in increasingly close orbital alignment with its pursuer. The two satellites now look to be drifting further and further apart, but the episode has been a clear sign of what is to come as the potential for conflict in space only continues to grow.

Publicly available space tracking data from the satellitemap.space and orbitalradar.com websites show that Kosmos 2612 (also written sometimes Cosmos 2612 and abbreviated K2612) and ICEYE X36 had their especially close encounter at approximately 16:07 UTC today. Private space services company LeoLabs also told TWZ today that it could not “confirm or contradict what other data sources have stated publicly,” but that it has “high-confidence that the objects came within approximately [emphasis in the original] 500 meters [1,640 feet] of each other.” Kosmos 2612 had been making progressively closer passes by ICEYE X36 in recent days.

“COSMOS 2612 closed from hundreds of kilometers away to extreme proximity to ICEYE-X36. It then maneuvered around ICEYE-X36,  remained nearby for an extended period, and then began moving away,” LeoLabs also stated in a report assessing the situation, which was updated today and provided to TWZ. “The latest observations show the spacecraft strongly diverging and confirm that the close-proximity activity had ended.” 

LeoLabs’ broader assessment here is supported by data from other publicly available sources, as seen below.

Additional context

None of the distances stated earlier may seem especially close, let alone worrisome, by terrestrial standards. However, this is absolutely abnormal for operations in space that are not being directly coordinated by the parties involved. As a point of reference, in 2020, another Russian satellite, Kosmos 2542, came within 150 to 300 kilometers (93 to 186 miles) of USA 245, a KH-11 spy satellite, and became a major international news story.

“We are aware of the situation and tracking it closely,” a spokesperson for ICEYE’s U.S.-based division told TWZ this morning. “Our constellation architecture is designed for continuity and resilience.”

ICEYE was founded in Finland, but now has offices globally. The company specializes in providing imagery via synthetic aperture radar (SAR) from satellites like ICEYE X36, which was launched in 2024.

SAR has the benefit of being able to capture images day or night, and regardless of bad weather or other obscurants like heavy smoke. There are trade-offs in terms of the kinds of details typically visible via SAR compared to what is seen in visual spectrum imagery. Ukrainian authorities have been utilizing ICEYE imagery for years now, including for targeting purposes, as part of the ongoing conflict with Russia. There have been reports in the past that ICEYE X36 has been operating more directly under the control of the Ukrainian government, but this has not been confirmed.

Kosmos 2612 is one of six satellites (Cosmos 2609 through Cosmos 2614) the Russian military launched via a single Soyuz-2.1b rocket on April 17. The exact purpose and configuration of these satellites are unconfirmed. However, they appear to be so-called inspector types capable of rendezvousing and maneuvering close to other objects in space. We will come back to this later on.

What is clear is that Kosmos 2612 has spent the past three weeks deliberately maneuvering to extremely closely shadow ICEYE X36.

“Over two weeks beginning on September 30, 2026, Cosmos 2612 executed a series of new maneuvers that brought it back into coplanar alignment and placed it at nearly the same altitude as the commercial satellite,” Clayton Swope, Deputy Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank in Washington, D.C., along with Research Assistant Chantal Li, wrote in an analysis of the situation just last Thursday.

“According to current orbital elements, the Russian #KOSMOS 2612 satellite is now within 1-2 km [0.6 miles to 1.2 miles] of #ICEYE-X36,” Dr. Marco Langbroek, currently a lecturer on Space Situational Awareness at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering of Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, wrote in a thread on X on Saturday. “Based on current elements, it might come within meters of the latter within a few hours from now. This is an #RPO [rendezvous and proximity operation] without consent.”

“New TLEs [two-line elements] show that K2612 made a manuever [sic] on Oct 16 and is now stationkeeping within 5 km [3.1 miles] or less of ICEYE X36,” Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer, who previously worked for the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and has long been tracking objects of interest in orbit, also wrote in a series of posts on X on Saturday. “To my knowledge this is the first LEO [low Earth orbit] rendezvous of two active satellites where the owner of one of the sats did not give approval.”

McDowell later clarified that “close passes” of objects in orbit had certainly occurred previously, “but not I think rendezvous [sic] (matching velocity vector).”

“This is the most advanced and potentially dangerous uncooperative RPO we’ve observed,” Adam Marsh, LeoLabs vice president for technical solutions, separately told Breaking Defense.

Unprecedented orbital maneuvering

As underscored by the previous interaction of Kosmos 2542 and USA 245, close shadowing of satellites in orbit is certainly nothing new. The U.S. government, as well as Russia and others, have been observed engaging in this kind of activity in the past. At the same time, just how close Kosmos 2612 got to ICEYE X36, and how long they spent in close alignment, are, at the very least, highly unusual.

“It’s important to note that ‘red’ on ‘blue’ engagements,  such as this, are relatively uncommon in Low Earth Orbit (LEO),” LeoLabs’ report points out. At the same time, “this was not a routine conjunction or ‘fly by.’ The sequence included a controlled approach, changes in relative position, close-proximity loitering, additional small maneuvers, and a controlled departure. The behavior is consistent with sophisticated rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO).”

On top of this, there are other signs that what just happened between Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36 may follow a Russian playbook of sorts that could also be used in a prelude to an on-orbit anti-satellite attack.

Within weeks of their launch in April, Kosmos 2610, 2611, 2612, 2613, and 2614 had all moved orbital planes shared by multiple ICEYE satellites. Three of them subsequently made close passes by ICEYE X36, specifically, but none of them initially kept station with it. ICEYE CEO Rafal Modrzewski did say “the company later moved its ​satellite, prompting further Russian manoeuvres [sic],” according to a story Reuters published last week.

To take a step even further back, before Kosmos 2542 was caught shadowing USA 245 in 2020, there were reports that the U.S. spy satellite had shifted its orbit. This was possibly prompted by the movements of another Russian ‘inspector,’ Kosmos 2543. This does not appear to have ever been confirmed.

While in space, Kosmos 2542 had deployed Kosmos 2543 in November 2019. Then, on July 23, 2020, the U.S. military said that it had detected Kosmos 2543 itself launching a smaller object in what it described as a test of a space-based anti-satellite weapon. In a subsequent interview with Time, then-Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond, U.S. Space Force’s top uniformed officer, disclosed that American forces had first observed Russian “nesting doll” satellites – a reference to traditional Russian matryoshka dolls – similarly demonstrating the “characteristics of a weapon system” in 2017.

U.S. officials have been warning for years that Russia’s growing array of inspector-type satellites, ostensibly designed to examine other assets the country has in orbit if they break down or otherwise malfunction, are inherently dual-purpose in nature. Beyond launching projectiles, a host of other modes of attack, kinetic and non-kinetic, are enabled by the underlying ability of a spacecraft to maneuver very close to other objects in orbit and hold that position. This includes the use of grappling arms to cause damage or just tow a satellite out of orbit, spraying aerosols to harm or impair optics and solar panels, and electronic warfare jamming. A satellite could turn out to be the weapon itself, becoming a kinetic interceptor that smashes into its target on command.

One satellite shadowing another closely in orbit allows various kinds of intelligence gathering, as well. Collection of imagery and signal emissions can offer valuable details about a target’s capabilities and vulnerabilities, as s well as how it is being used in a particular context.

“As observed by LeoLabs Global Radar Network and analyzed by our team, COSMOS 2612 demonstrated a sequence of capabilities that could be used to inspect, characterize, shadow, or potentially interfere with another spacecraft,” according to LeoLabs’ report. “These actions require planning, maneuverability, precise navigation, and significant fuel. They may also indicate the use of onboard sensors capable of measuring the relative position of another spacecraft.”

What has just transpired between Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36 highlights how just a viable threat of attack can be disruptive in its own right. Simply forcing an imagery-gathering satellite out of position could prevent it from collecting over an intended area, or at least doing so in the most effective manner.

Furthermore, satellites only have a limited amount of fuel with which to maneuver in any way after reaching orbit. Harassment in space that forces them to burn off that finite resource at a higher-than-expected rate could reduce their total operational life expectancy, as well as further limit their effectiveness and make them more vulnerable to attacks or accidents. Debris in space is a steadily growing hazard that satellites increasingly need to dodge.

How Much Junk Is There In Space? | Earth Science

The United States, among others, has been actively pursuing on-orbit refueling capabilities to help address these issues. Last month, American officials also made the bombshell admission that there are unspecified U.S. weapon systems in orbit now, ostensibly for defensive purposes amid growing threats from Russia, as well as China. Both of those countries, among others, have been actively developing and fielding various anti-satellite capabilities inside and out of the Earth’s atmosphere.

“We can only speculate about the operation’s goal, but it could have been anything from simply intimidation to outright destruction or sabotage of a U.S.-registered satellite,” CSIS’ Clayton Swope told TWZ directly today in light of the new developments regarding Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36. “Perhaps the operation is on hold. There are, however, several other satellites that shadowed ICEYE X36 back in May that could be brought in[to] action too.”

Attribution and broader ramifications

It is important to point out that space, as a domain, inherently creates complications when it comes to attributing any form of attack, should one occur. Satellites do suffer mishaps, sometimes with catastrophic results, the causes of which are not always clear.

Just in January, a Russian inspector satellite launched in 2014 appeared to break up unexpectedly. Sometime around the end of July, the Chinese reconnaissance satellite Yaogan 50-02, which had only been launched some four months earlier, also broke up in orbit. On Sept. 13, a similar fate befell the U.S. Cold War-era Farrah III spy satellite, also known as USA 32. At the time of writing, no firm evidence has emerged to indicate any of these incidents were the result of hostile action rather than accidents of some kind.

“While the intention behind COSMOS 2612’s behavior remains uncertain, the deliberate nature of the activity, the fuel required to conduct this activity, and the proximity to a Western commercial imaging satellite make the event strategically important,” LeoLab’s report notes. “This event, and the capabilities demonstrated, do not establish hostile intent. It does, however, demonstrate capabilities that could support intelligence collection, on-orbit inspection, coercive signaling, interference, or preparation for future counterspace operations.”

It is very possible, if not highly probable, that Kosmos 2612’s recent activities will be indicative of a trend going forward. Aggressive and potentially dangerous maneuvering by armed forces in close proximity to each other is not uncommon within the atmosphere, especially in the air and at sea. Extending a variation on those tactics into the space domain would make sense, especially given the central role that capabilities in orbit increasingly play in modern military operations globally. Those roles extend to early warning, general intelligence gathering, weapons guidance, near-real-time communications, and beyond.

American officials have already said in the past that American assets in space are routinely the target of “reversible attacks,” meaning ones that do not cause permanent damage. That also speaks to the difficulty of attribution if there is no lasting effect or impact to draw attention to.

The U.S. government’s long-time monopoly on the space domain has also been steadily eroding in recent years, especially in light of China’s massive expansion of its intelligence-gathering and other satellite constellations. The scale and scope of what commercial satellite imagery and other space services providers, like ICEYE, offer today have led to a further democratization of space-based capabilities to countries like Ukraine that do not possess significant, if any, constellations of their own.

All of this, in turn, has increasingly driven the U.S. military, specifically, to plan for more proactive operations and potential direct conflict in orbit to ensure it retains its edge going forward. The aforementioned disclosure of U.S. on-orbit weapons is indicative of those developments and an accompanying shift in U.S. policy to be more open about counter-space capabilities.

More details may yet emerge about Kosmos 2612 and its recent rendezvous in orbit with ICEYE X36, but it already points to how space has become an increasingly likely potential zone for direct conflict going forward.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

US president accuses Ukrainian leader of not wanting to end the war, as Zelenskyy speaks with Washington envoys.

United States President Donald Trump has defended sanction waivers for Russia, saying he wants to keep Moscow at the bargaining table and accusing his counterpart in Kyiv of not wanting to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump made the comments on Truth Social on Sunday in response to criticism of his decision to block numerous sanctions on Russia just days before they were due to take effect.

“My decision on Russia is a very simple one. I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don’t want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table,” he said.

The move has triggered a significant diplomatic fallout between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the past week.

Zelenskyy said that waiving sanctions on Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour in 2022, “will hurt Ukraine”, telling NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that it would strengthen Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war effort.

“We can’t compare me and Putin. He’s [an] aggressor. He occupied us. He killed adults and children, his soldiers. He’s a terrorist, and that’s why I hope that President Trump will be very clear with this position.”

Trump reiterated his claim that Zelenskyy does not want the war on his country to end, saying on Truth Social that Kyiv was launching attacks on diesel refineries in Russia despite knowing it was “seriously hurting the world diesel markets”.

“Zelenskyy doesn’t care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him… he doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did,” Trump wrote.

Trump announced plans on October 9 for Russia to supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and global markets to tackle fuel prices that have soared since the US and Israel launched war on Iran in late February. The move led Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global energy exports transited before the war.

Trump’s embrace of Russian energy has angered not only Kyiv, but also European partners and many US officials, who say the move rewards Moscow while it continues its four-and-a-half-year war against Ukraine.

US-Ukraine talks continue

The Ukrainian president said on X on Sunday that he has spoken with US presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as part of “virtually non-stop communication” between the two countries’ teams aimed at the “next steps in diplomacy”.

“We are doing everything on our part to make this happen, and to ensure that America’s position is strong and helps bring peace closer. Peace that everyone, except Russia, has been waiting for over the past four and a half years,” Zelenskyy wrote.

Zelenskyy spoke with Witkoff and Kushner as Russia and Ukraine continued to strike each other’s energy sites, with Moscow leaving thousands without power, and Kyiv carrying out the largest drone attack on Russia, in St Petersburg, since the war began.

Oct. 17, 2026 8:31 AM PT

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s abrupt decision to waive sanctions on Russia days before they were to take effect drew outrage Saturday from members of Congress, which had overwhelmingly passed the legislation in a bipartisan display of American support for Ukraine in the war with Russia.

Lawmakers from both parties blasted the executive order late Friday, the latest in a series of steps that the Republican president has taken drawing the United States closer to Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Trump recently announced a diesel deal with Putin to import Russian energy in a long-shot effort to curb high gas prices in the U.S. that are roiling the midterm elections on Nov. 3.

“Beyond irresponsible,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), on social media, hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope that the sanctions that were supposed to take effect Sunday targeting Russian’s economy could be revived.

“What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand?” Tillis said. “It’s unconscionable that this administration is capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine.”

Tillis said that if Trump wants to actually bring down energy prices, he should resolve the Iran war, which is largely blamed for the spike at the pump, and “not by doing a solid for Vladimir Putin.”

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas said, “Lindsey would be appalled,” referring to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who worked endlessly on the bill before he died this summer. The bill is known as the Lindsey Graham Russian Sanctions Act.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Trump is “thumbing his nose” at Congress and “enabling Vladimir Putin to continue his war of aggression.” She urged her colleagues to take action to reverse course.

Trump’s actions come as Ukraine is bracing for a stark winter confronting Russia’s ongoing attacks on its energy infrastructure to heat homes and keep the lights on. Zelensky, who has endured a rocky relationship with Trump but stayed close to the U.S. lawmakers, urged supporters to speak out on behalf of the sanctions.

The next steps are highly uncertain with the House and Senate on recess until after election day. Trump said he was waiving the sanctions indefinitely, citing national security concerns. It is unlikely Congress would be in a position to take any action to challenge Trump’s moves until lawmakers return to Washington.

It took almost a year for Graham to persuade Trump to agree to the Russian sanctions package. It was designed to impose steep tariffs on countries that import large amounts of Russian oil and energy products and was promoted as way to halt the flow of funds fueling Putin’s four-year war against Ukraine.

But even as Zelensky had watched from the visitor gallery as the Senate advanced the package after Graham’s death, skeptics in Congress warned Trump would be unlikely to follow the bill once he had signed it into law a month ago.

Last week, a bipartisan group of senators urged the Trump administration to more quickly clamp down on Russia, particularly the “shadow fleet” of tankers that Moscow is using to transport oil and bypass America’s sanctions. The senators noted that the bulk of the new law’s provisions were to be effective Sunday.

Instead, Trump soon announced the diesel deal with Putin, saying that Russia had agreed to supply tons of fuel to the U.S., where gas prices have skyrocketed in some areas and voters saying affordability issues are a top concern.

Outraged lawmakers have pledged to stop the Trump-Putin deal.

New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee who had led opposition to the Graham bill — warning that Trump would flout the law — introduced legislation Friday that would block Trump’s diesel deal with Putin.

“At a time when the United States should be increasing pressure on the Kremlin, Donald Trump is cozying up to Putin and striking self-enriching deals instead of standing with Ukraine,” Meeks said in a statement.

He called the deal “corrupt” and said it “goes against everything the United States stands for.”

Mascaro writes for the Associated Press. Associated Press writers Kevin Freking and Mary Clare Jalonick contributed to this report.

Kyiv, Ukraine – The supernova-like blasts of exploding Russian ballistic missiles are followed by thunderous thumps, shockwaves, fires and deaths – and the staccato of Ukrainian air defence systems.

This week’s nightly attacks on Ukraine that killed at least 15 and wounded dozens resembled hundreds of previous raids – with one exception.

The air raid sirens began howling just seconds before or after yet another wave of missiles struck apartment buildings, power plants and warehouses.

But Ukraine’s partners did not provide the country with intelligence data from NATO’s early-warning satellites, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday, as tensions between Washington and Kyiv rise.

He did not name the United States and President Donald Trump has denied that Washington has stopped sharing intelligence.

The constellation of military satellites detects Russian ballistic missile attacks by the rockets’ thermal flames seconds after launch.

The warnings give Ukrainians up to 10 minutes – precious, life-saving time to sound air raid sirens and send emergency text messages to prompt evacuations to bomb shelters.

“That’s what helps prevent the killings,” Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine’s ground radars can only detect the incoming missiles as their speed ranges from 6,000 to 12,000km/h (3,730 – 7,260 miles per hour).

‘Trump pressures our president’

Despite Trump’s denial, Ukrainian observers have a simple yet harrowing explanation – the US president wants to help Republicans win more congressional seats in upcoming midterm elections by pressuring Kyiv into declaring an “energy ceasefire” with Moscow that would drive global oil prices down.

“Trump pressures our president, pressures Ukraine” as he strives to “get advantage by any means necessary in the election campaign,” Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera.

The lack of intelligence data “significantly affects the effectiveness of air defence, we don’t have time to respond,” he said.

Without the satellite data, Ukrainian drones and missiles also “lose precision when striking targets deep in Russia,” he said.

On Sunday, Trump announced the ceasefire that envisages no mutual strikes on energy infrastructure – from Russian oil refineries and fuel depots to Ukrainian power and heating stations.

“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote on social media.

Kyiv said the announcement was a surprise, while Moscow declined to say whether it backs the idea – and kept on hitting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The pressure goes beyond the refineries as Trump wants to quickly reopen, arbitrate and complete peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow – even if they benefit the Kremlin.

“He needs peace talks to succeed. Ideally, it is a certain unblocking of the peace settlement process, when Kyiv shows more willingness to agree with Russia’s demands,” Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych told Al Jazeera.

The pressure will continue until “Kyiv shows readiness for a compromise and concessions towards Russia,” he said.

Moscow “simply abuses” the pressure and the suspension of air raid warnings to escalate attacks on Ukraine, he said.

Kyiv’s ‘priority’: The destruction of oil refineries

The suspension of data-sharing was especially shocking, given that Kyiv did stop hitting Russian refineries for three days.

It was only on Wednesday that its drones attacked refineries in Saratov and Ryazan regions, said Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Aleksander Novak.

However, Kyiv’s focus on striking oil refineries is ineffective and counterproductive, another observer said.

“Kyiv’s strategic priority is still the destruction of oil refineries,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University, who has penned hundreds of authoritative analyses of the hostilities, told Al Jazeera.

However, Russia overcame the initial shock by transporting gas from refineries in Siberia and exporting it from neighbouring Belarus and Kazakhstan.

No economic collapse, massive joblessness or public protests followed the strikes, while Moscow continued its air raids, adding jet-powered drones that resemble cruise missiles and are hard to down with Ukraine’s existing air defence system, he said.

“What is the basis for Kyiv’s and its backers’ conviction that strikes on oil refineries and depots will lead to Russia’s strategic defeat before Ukraine is defeated? I don’t understand,” he said.

However, Ukrainian attacks on data centres, bridges and factories where drones are assembled are far more effective, he said.

Recent strikes on data centres of Russian online giant Yandex and the state-run Sberbank resulted in disruptions of services in Russia and even former Soviet republics where Yandex operates its online payment, food delivery and taxi services.

Trump “didn’t ask him to stop the war, to give away cities or stop striking Russian rears in general,” Mitrokhin said.

Kyiv has repeatedly reiterated that it was ready to start peace talks if they are preceded by a ceasefire, but Moscow wanted to continue ground assaults and air raids until the peace terms were finalised – which could take months or even years.

‘We’re ready for any turn of events’

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s drone czar accused Elon Musk’s SpaceX of throttling Starlink satellite terminals that are part of the military-grade Starshield system.

Serhiy Beskrestnov said that SpaceX abruptly and without any warning limited services for terminals placed on drones flying over 160km/h (100mph).

The limit affected crucially-important interceptor drones and followed Trump’s request, presidential adviser Serhii Sternenko said.

Musk said that the White House owns and controls the Starshield systems and that any limits on speed are decided by Trump.

Some military analysts warn that the limit may be followed by a total shutdown of Starlink for Ukraine that could damage the quality of all military communications.

“But we were getting ready for everything,” Andriy Pronin told Al Jazeera. “We already know it may happen, that’s why we’re ready for any turn of events.”

In September 2022, Musk secretly ordered engineers to switch off Starlink coverage in the Russia-occupied Kherson region, effectively thwarting Kyiv’s push to retake it, Reuters reported.

In 2023, Musk threatened to cut off Ukrainian military access to Starlink unless the US defence department took over the costs.

Later, the Pentagon, Poland and other European allies took over the costs.

A source in the Ukrainian defence ministry later told the BBC: “Last night, we detected restrictions affecting Starlink connectivity at speeds above 160 km/h, although we are still verifying the exact speed threshold.

“This situation is significantly complicating operations, particularly logistics, unmanned systems, middle-strike missions, and other activities,” the source said, adding the “root cause” of the issue was being investigated.

The Starlink system has become a vital tool to give troops in Ukraine internet access, allowing them to effectively control drones heading towards Russian targets.

In February, Musk’s decision to deny Russian forces access to Starlink blunted Moscow’s advance in Ukraine and caused confusion among Russian commanders.

Musk’s SpaceX has not commented on the reported speed restrictions.

Zelensky has said the US threatened to restrict intelligence sharing if he did not sign up to Trump’s energy ceasefire. Trump on Tuesday denied that Washington was withholding intelligence.

Ukraine’s air force said that overnight, Russia had launched 39 ballistic and cruise missiles and 128 drones, and that four of those missiles and 115 drones had been shot down.

It is the second night in a row Kyiv has been hit by Russian missiles, and comes as Zelensky prepares to meet UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham at Downing Street on Wednesday to discuss accelerating air defence supplies to Kyiv.

During the past two nights, ballistic missiles have struck targets in the Ukrainian capital without any warning, before air raid sirens could be sounded.

Ukraine relies on US satellite systems to track Russian missiles in order to issue alerts and to try to shoot them down.

Russian air attacks have killed at least six people in Ukraine and caused power cuts in parts of the capital Kyiv, days after United States President Donald Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” in the more-than four year war.

The ⁠Russian Defence Ministry said on Wednesday that its forces had carried out a “massive” strike ‌against communications and energy infrastructure facilities ⁠in Ukraine, the Interfax ⁠news ⁠agency reported.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged people to remain in shelters.

“Energy facilities in Kyiv and the surrounding region have come under a massive ballistic missile strike. There are power disruptions in the capital,” he wrote on Telegram.

DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy provider, said the attack had caused emergency power cuts in several urban districts of Kyiv.

A Russian strike on a multistorey building in the capital’s Desnianskyi district killed two people, while another attack in Golosiivsky district killed one, Ukraine’s state emergency service said.

The Ukrainian military also reported that two people were killed and six wounded in Russian attacks on the Dnipropetrovsk region. Another person was killed in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.

Further Russian missile attacks were reported in the Kharkiv and Zhytomyr regions, while other strikes hit Sumy and Chernigiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian attacks on Kyiv had come without Ukraine receiving advance warning from its Western allies.

“A Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. Once again, no early warning from our partners,” he wrote on Facebook. “This is absolutely unjust: when they are destroying our infrastructure, and Ukraine is not even receiving early warnings about ballistic missile launches.”

The president said Ukraine detected the missiles only as they neared Kyiv.

He also accused Russia of violating the “energy ceasefire” Trump announced on Sunday.

“A targeted Russian ballistic missile strike specifically against energy infrastructure – the very infrastructure covered by the ceasefire announced by the American President,” he wrote on X.

“The strike was entirely deliberate and demonstrative in its scale – Russia has never before shown such ostentatious disrespect toward the United States.”

Russia also reported Ukrainian drone strikes overnight. The governor of Russia’s Saratov region, Roman Busargin, said a Ukrainian drone strike had killed one person in the city of Balakovo.

Busargin said all ⁠infrastructure ⁠facilities were operating as usual. Balakovo is home ⁠to a data centre of Russia’s ⁠top lender Sberbank, a ⁠nuclear power ⁠plant and a hydropower station, whose dam spans ‌the Volga River, among other facilities.

Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin said air defence forces had downed nearly 500 drones flying towards the Russian capital overnight. Russian authorities said about 160 more were brought down over the Rostov region, while others targeted Moscow.

Russia’s military later put the number of downed Ukrainian drones overnight at 902, of which 180 were shot down near the capital Moscow.