Russia-Ukraine war

The 900ft Arctic Metagaz, a charred Russian ghost tanker, has drifted dangerously close to Malta, an archipelago in the central Mediterranean known for its history and culture

Malta — a popular holiday hotspot — is said to be under threat of a “major ecological disaster”.

A charred Russian ghost tanker is believed to be around 50 nautical miles southwest of the island, and is drifting crewless towards the archipelago. The vessel was blitzed two weeks ago by Ukranian drones and has since, the hole-ridden 900ft Arctic Metagaz has moved towards Malta.

And now multiple European countries have warned an ecological threat is imminent. In a letter to the European Commission, seven nations said the “precarious condition of the vessel, combined with the nature of its specialised cargo” posed a “serious risk”. These countries have described the situation as a “dual challenge” – upholding maritime safety and preventing an ecological disaster against the background of EU sanctions imposed on.

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Russia claimed that Ukraine used “uncrewed sea drones” to target the Metagaz in the Mediterranean Sea between Libya and Malta. The Security Service of Ukraine has not responded to the accusation.

According to Russia, the attack took place on March 4 and was launched from the Libyan coast. The vessel had previously been sanctioned by the United States and the European Union for being part of Moscow’s so-called “shadow fleet.”

Composed largely of ageing tankers, the fleet moves Russian oil and gas worldwide while bypassing Western restrictions. Authorities in Malta and Italy have been closely monitoring the wreck amid concerns about potential pollution. Rome said the vessel was carrying “significant quantities of gas, heavy oil, and diesel fuel.”

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WWF Italy warned in a statement: “A potential spill could cause fires, cryogenic clouds lethal to marine life, and widespread and long-lasting pollution of water and the atmosphere.”

It added: “The affected area is of exceptional ecological value, with fragile deep-sea ecosystems and some of the highest biodiversity in the Mediterranean basin.”

Salvage experts are already in Malta in preparation for the ship’s arrival in Maltese waters, while a specialist vessel is on its way, a maritime source told AFP on Sunday.

Initial reports indicated that the ship sank after explosions sparked a fire on board. Libyan authorities said the tanker went down about 130 nautical miles north of the port of Sirte. Around 30 Russians were on board the Arctic Metagaz, according to Russia’s transport ministry. They were all found “safe and sound in a lifeboat” by Malta’s armed forces, Maltese Home Affairs Minister Byron Camilleri said.

However, Malta’s transport authority said last week that the wreck was still afloat. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation acknowledged that the vessel was drifting in the Mediterranean and said Russia’s further involvement in resolving the situation would depend on “concrete circumstances”. It added that efforts to address the situation — including surveillance, monitoring and other technical support — could risk “undermining the integrity, effectiveness and the deterrent value of the EU sanctions regime”.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the ship had no crew and was carrying 700 metric tons of various types of fuel along with “a substantial amount of natural gas”.

“The international legal norms applicable to the current situation imply the responsibility of coastal countries … for resolving the situation with the drifting vessel and preventing an environmental disaster,” Zakharova wrote.

“Further involvement by the shipowner and Russia as the flag state will depend on the specific circumstances.”

EU maintains pressure after slamming US for lifting sanctions on Russian oil exports as Middle East war bites.

The European Union has voted to renew sanctions against individuals and entities supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine, as Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, killing six people in the Zaporizhia and Kyiv regions.

The EU Council announced that the bloc’s 27 member states had agreed on Saturday to extend sanctions targeting some 2,600 individuals and entities with measures like travel restrictions and asset freezes until September 15, breaking an earlier deadlock caused by Hungary and Slovakia’s opposition to the move.

The extension of sanctions came one day after EU Council chief Antonio Costa slammed the United States for lifting sanctions on Russian oil exports, saying on X that weakening restrictions increased “Russian resources to wage the war of aggression against Ukraine”, with a knock-on impact on European security.

The measure was announced as Russia hammered Ukraine with missiles and drones on Saturday, killing five people and injuring 15 in the Kyiv region surrounding the capital, according to regional military administrator Mykola Kalashnyk.

The city of Zaporizhzhia was also hit by Russian-guided bombs, killing one person and injuring three, said the governor of the southeastern region, Ivan Fedorov. Photos posted online showed parts of buildings reduced to rubble.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia’s main target was energy infrastructure outside the capital Kyiv, but that the Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Mykolaiv regions were also targeted in an attack that included about 430 drones and 68 missiles, most of which were downed by air defences.

Russia’s winter attacks on Ukraine have left swaths of major cities without power or heating, as Moscow’s troops continue their offensive amid demands Kyiv cede more territory in the east. Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said on Saturday that consumers in six regions were without electricity.

Ukraine’s forces have targeted Russian strategic infrastructure such as oil refineries, depots and terminals in long-range strikes. On Saturday, Ukraine’s military said that it had struck the Afipsky oil refinery and Port Kavkaz in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region.

Putin ‘exploiting’ Middle East distraction

Saturday’s fighting came as the Iran conflict has distracted international attention from a US-backed peace push in the four-year war, which Kyiv says Moscow has no interest in ending.

Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever called on Saturday for the EU to be mandated by its member states to negotiate with Russia as it became apparent amid spiking oil prices caused by the Iran war that the US was easing pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Since we are not capable of threatening Putin by sending weapons to Ukraine, and we cannot choke him economically without the support of the United States, there is only one method left: making a deal,” he told the Belgian newspaper L’Echo.

EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas has said in the past that the bloc must first reach an agreement on what is expected from Russia before directly approaching Putin, formulating its own “maximalist demands”.

However, the bloc’s inability to reach a common position was highlighted during the EU Council’s recent deliberations on extending sanctions.

Hungary and Slovakia, which have been sparring with Ukraine over blocked Russian oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline, had earlier opposed the extension of the restrictions, reportedly calling for some Russian oligarchs to be removed from the list of offenders.

Reacting earlier this week to soaring oil prices caused by the war in Iran, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged the EU to suspend sanctions on Russian energy.

Posting on X, Zelenskyy said, “Russia will try to exploit the war in the Middle East to cause even greater destruction here in Europe, in Ukraine.”

Ukrainian and Russian officials have claimed battlefield successes in the more than four-year war, as Russian air attacks on Ukraine continue.

At least four people were killed in Russian attacks on the Ukrainian town of Sloviansk, regional authorities said on Tuesday.

The governor of Sloviansk, Vadym Filashkin, confirmed the death toll on Tuesday and said 16 others were wounded, including a 14-year-old girl. He said Russian forces dropped three guided bombs on the city.

There was no immediate comment from Moscow on the attack.

Overnight drone strikes on three other Ukrainian cities wounded at least 17 people, including two children, emergency services said.

Ukraine’s air force said that it shot down 122 out of 137 drones that Russia launched during the night.

Warring parties claim advances

Ukrainian forces have recently retaken nearly all the territory of the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk industrial region during a counteroffensive, driving Russian troops out of more than 400 square kilometres (150sq miles), Major-General Oleksandr Komarenko said in an interview published Tuesday by local media outlet RBC-Ukraine.

He described the overall situation on the front line as difficult but under control, with the heaviest fighting continuing near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine and Oleksandrivka in the south, where he said Russian forces have concentrated their main effort.

There was no independent verification of his description of the military situation.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said late Monday that recent Ukrainian counterattacks “are generating tactical, operational and strategic effects that may disrupt Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive campaign plan”.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian forces have extended their gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, whose capture Moscow has made one of the goals of its invasion. Ukraine controlled about 25 percent of the Donbas six months ago, but it now holds just 15-17 percent, Putin said.

In Russia, the governor of the border region Bryansk, said a Ukrainian missile strike on Bryansk city had killed at least six people and wounded 37 others.

Alexander Bogomaz said those killed were civilians and that the wounded were admitted to the Bryansk Regional Hospital.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attack hit a Russian missile plant.

At the same time, a United Nations investigation found that the deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 had amounted to “crimes against humanity”.

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for President Vladimir Putin and five other Russian officials in 2023 over the alleged illegal deportation of children, which Moscow denies and said it has been evacuating people voluntarily from a warzone.

Trilateral talks ‘next week’

United States special envoy Steve Witkoff told the CNBC news outlet on Tuesday that the next round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US would likely be “sometime next week”.

Trilateral talks were first held in January in the United Arab Emirates; a second meeting was held in February in Geneva, Switzerland. Last year, Russia and Ukraine also held three rounds of talks in Turkiye, yet so far the two countries remain no closer to a deal as key issues, including Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory, are yet to be resolved.

Moscow has repeatedly said it would only agree to a deal that allows it to retain the territories it has seized, while Ukraine has said its territory must be returned in any deal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Turkiye was prepared to host the next round of trilateral talks after speaking with his Turkish counterpart, President Tayyip Erdogan, on Tuesday.

Antonio Costa says Russia benefits from soaring global energy prices and attention being diverted from war in Ukraine.

European Council President Antonio Costa has said Russia is the only country benefitting from the US-Israeli war on Iran, as global energy prices soar and attention from Moscow’s four-year conflict with Ukraine is diverted.

Now in its 11th day, the war has spiralled rapidly throughout the region as Iranian forces hit back at US and Israeli targets, as well as facilities in the Gulf. It has also slowed oil and natural gas flows through the strategic Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill, pushing fuel prices upwards and threatening far-reaching impacts on a number of industries.

“So far, there is only one winner in this war – Russia,” Costa said in a speech to European Union ambassadors in Brussels on Tuesday.

“It gains ‌new resources to finance its war against Ukraine as energy prices rise. It profits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise have been sent to support Ukraine. And it benefits from reduced ⁠attention to the Ukrainian front ⁠as the conflict in the Middle East takes centre stage.”

Costa stressed the need for the EU to protect ⁠the international rules-based order, which he said was now being challenged ⁠by the United States, ⁠and for all parties in the Middle East to return to the negotiating table.

“Freedom and human rights cannot ‌be achieved through bombs. Only international law upholds them,” he said. “We must avoid further escalation. ‌Such ‌a path threatens the Middle East, Europe, and beyond.”

The US and Israeli attack on Iran triggered the biggest spike in oil prices on Monday since the turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Costa’s comments came as the Kremlin said all parties wanted to continue US-mediated Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but that no date or venue had been agreed yet for the next round.

Russia and Ukraine held three rounds of talks in Turkiye last year and have conducted several more US-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva this year. But they remain far apart on key issues, especially on Russia’s demand for Ukraine to cede control of the whole of its eastern Donetsk region.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, held their first phone call of the year, during which they discussed the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

The Kremlin said the possibility of lifting US sanctions on Russian oil had not been discussed in any detail with Washington, but that US actions were aimed at stabilising global energy markets.

Following this call, Putin said Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter and holder of the biggest natural gas reserves, was ready to work again with European customers if they wanted to return to long-term cooperation.

Before the Ukraine war, Europe was buying more than 40 percent of its gas from Russia. By 2025, combined sales of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia accounted for only 13 percent of total EU imports.

Also on Monday, Trump said his administration would lift some sanctions on oil-producing countries to keep energy prices down – though he did not say which ones.

Washington currently maintains sanctions on the oil sectors of Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

The Reuters news agency, citing multiple unnamed sources, reported that Trump was considering easing sanctions on Russia as part of his plans to keep oil prices down.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week announced a 30-day waiver on sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to help it cope with the cuts to Middle East supply.

Russian president spoke as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, reaching levels unseen since start of Ukraine war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia is ready to conditionally supply oil and gas to Europe as the US-Israeli war on Iran brings shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to a halt.

The Russian president said in televised comments on Monday that Moscow was ready to work again with European customers, which largely stopped buying from his country in a bid to stop funding its war on Ukraine, if they wanted to return to long-term cooperation.

European countries, however, have spent the past four years sharply reducing their reliance on Russian oil and gas in response to Moscow’s war in Ukraine and subsequent European Union and Group of Seven (G7) sanctions.

The EU banned maritime imports of Russian crude in 2022, while Russia’s pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia have been effectively halted since January due to damage to the Druzhba oil pipeline via Ukraine.

“If European companies and European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves and provide us with long-term, sustainable cooperation, free from political pressures, free from political pressures, then yes, we’ve never refused it. We’re ready to work with Europeans too,” said Putin at a meeting with government officials and heads of Russia’s top oil and gas producers.

He said that Russian companies should take advantage of conflict in the Middle East, which has seen Iran effectively halt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key oil transit chokepoints that carries roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

The Russian president spoke as oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel on Monday, reaching peaks unseen since he launched his country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than 30 percent on Sunday, at one point topping $119 a barrel, as fears grew of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

G7 nations said on Monday that they were prepared to implement “necessary measures” in response to surging global oil prices, but stopped short of committing to release emergency reserves.

Putin’s comments came hours after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged the European Union to suspend sanctions on Russian oil and gas to counter prices sent soaring by the war in the Middle East.

Last week, Putin had instructed the government to consider switching remaining Russian oil and gas flows away from Europe, before the European Union starts enforcing its decision to completely ban Russian fossil fuels.

Before the Ukraine war, Europe was buying more than 40 percent of its gas from Russia. By 2025, combined sales of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia accounted for only 13 percent of total EU imports.

The loss of the European market during the Ukraine war forced Russia to sell oil and gas at steep discounts to Asia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Kyiv could provide defensive systems as well as assistance to civilians and American soldiers “deployed in certain countries” in the Middle East as the war in Iran continues.

He has reportedly proposed an exchange of Ukrainian defensive technology to combat Iranian drones in return for advanced US defensive systems to use in the war against Russia.

The US-Israel-Iran conflict, which started 10 days ago when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran and killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has continued to escalate. Iran has responded with strikes on Israel and US military assets and other infrastructure in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

As Gulf and other Middle Eastern states continue to attempt to intercept incoming drones and missiles with US-supplied air defences, the US has asked Ukraine to contribute some of its own air-defence systems.

Here is what we know.

What has the US requested from Ukraine and why?

The US has asked for Ukraine’s help in defending Washington’s allies in the Middle East against Iranian missile attacks on infrastructure and US military assets, Ukraine’s president confirmed last week.

At the moment, the US is using air defence systems such as the Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries and Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, to intercept Iranian drones and missiles targeting its military assets in the region. The Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) and PAC-3 are advanced surface-to-air missile defence systems.

However, these types of systems are extremely expensive, costing millions of dollars for each interceptor missile fired, and there are concerns that supplies of US interceptor missiles could run low.

“We received a request from the United States for specific support in protection against ‘shaheds’ in the Middle East region,” Zelenskyy wrote in an X post on March 5.

Shahed drones, particularly the Shahed-136, are Iranian-designed “kamikaze” or loitering munitions which are very low cost compared to the interceptors being used by the US. Costing roughly $20,000-$35,000 each, these GPS-guided drones are about 3.5m (11.5 feet) long and fly autonomously to pre-programmed coordinates to strike fixed targets with explosive payloads. They blow up as they hit their targets.

Over the course of the Iran war, Shahed-136 drones have targeted Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE where US military assets and troops are hosted. Experts estimate that Iran has thousands of these drones.

Iran has also been supplying Moscow with many thousands of Shahed drones during Russia’s war on Ukraine.

During the course of Russia’s four-year war on Ukraine, Ukraine’s domestic arms industry has been forced to innovate, building low-cost interceptor drones priced at roughly $1,000 to $2,000 to counter Russian attacks with imported Iranian Shahed-136s.

Kyiv is now mass-producing these low-cost interceptor drones.

“The role of Shahed-type drones in long-range attacks has become more prominent in Ukraine after Russia took Iranian technology, improved it, and built it in previously unimaginable numbers,” Keir Giles, a Eurasia expert for the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

What has Zelenskyy said?

Zelenskyy has posted several statements on social media confirming that he is ready to help Middle Eastern countries defend their territories by providing technical expertise.

“Ukrainians have been fighting against ‘shahed’ drones for years now, and everyone recognises that no other country in the world has this kind of experience. We are ready to help,” he wrote on X on March 5.

“I gave instructions to provide the necessary means and ensure the presence of Ukrainian specialists who can guarantee the required security.

“Ukraine helps partners who help ensure our security and protect the lives of our people.”

It is understood that Ukraine is in talks with several Middle Eastern countries about this.

On Monday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine has deployed interceptor drones and a team of specialists to help protect US military bases in Jordan.

Zelenskyy wrote on X that he has also spoken directly to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) about “countering threats from the Iranian regime”.

He also said he had spoken with the leaders of Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed that Ukraine must not weaken its own air defences. However, it is mass-producing this equipment now, and may well be able to afford to share.

“The fact that there are surplus capabilities ready to be sent to the US and the Middle East is unsurprising because Ukraine has led this innovation,” Giles said.

Zelenskyy has therefore proposed an exchange of air defence systems with the US ones being used in the Middle East.

“We ourselves are at war. And I said, completely frankly, that we have a shortage of what they have. They have missiles for the Patriots, but hundreds or thousands of ‘shaheds’ cannot be intercepted with Patriot missiles – it is too costly,” Zelenskyy said.

“Meanwhile, we have a shortage of PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles. So, when it comes to technology or weapons exchange, I believe our country will be open to it.”

Zelenskyy may also have good political reasons for extending help, analysts say.

“The US has declined support for Ukraine on the ground that it had insufficient supply of air defence munitions, and now more of those Patriots have been fired in the Middle East in a few days, than have been supplied to Ukraine in four years,” Giles said.

“Zelenskyy will be aware that in providing this assistance, he is not only shaming the US, but also directly supporting potential friends and partners in the Middle East, who before now have been ambivalent to the situation in Ukraine,” Giles said.

Who else has sent defensive backup to the Gulf?

European countries including the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy have pledged to provide defensive backup to Gulf nations over the past week. Additionally, Australia said it was deploying military assets to the region.

Wary of becoming directly involved in the US-Israeli war on Iran, European countries have nevertheless been drawn into the conflict by attacks on a British base on Cyprus in the Mediterranean and Iranian strikes on Western allies in Gulf countries that host US troops in military bases.

What will happen next?

Just as Ukraine is getting involved in the war, Russia might too, say experts.

“We should not be surprised if before long, as well as Russian technology in Iranian drones, we see Iran launching Shaheds manufactured in Russia,” Giles said.

He described Russia as a “primary beneficiary of current US actions,” pointing to how the surge in oil prices, the relaxation in US curbs on Russian energy exports to keep crude and gas prices under control, and the diversion of air defence munitions from Europe to the Middle East all helped Moscow. These, he said, “are all lifelines for Russia”.

The Ukraine war has increased Europe’s dependence on arms imports in the past five years, but it may also have helped to turn Europe into a rising arms manufacturer and exporter, new research suggests.

Imports of major arms by European states more than tripled during 2021-25, when the Ukraine war has raged, compared with the previous five-year period of 2016-20, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in its annual Arms Transfers report released on Monday.

Almost half of those weapons – 48 percent – came from the United States, suggesting that Europe is failing in a commonly shared ambition of becoming more weapons-autonomous.

Poland and the United Kingdom are Europe’s biggest importers of weapons, said SIPRI.

Europe’s growing market

However, there are caveats to that picture.

“Ukrainian arms imports over the last five years made 43 percent of the overall increase in European imports,” said Katarina Djokic, a leading SIPRI researcher.

That figure measures only direct imports from the US to Ukraine, she said. It does not include imports made on Ukraine’s behalf by other European states. So in reality, Ukraine’s needs made up an even bigger proportion of Europe’s imports.

Beneath that headline figure of growing European imports lies another picture of Europe.

“Taken together, the arms exports of the 27 current EU member states went up by 36 percent,” said SIPRI’s report.

That is a faster growth rate than the US’s 27 percent over the same period, and China’s 11 percent.

The European Union’s combined arms exports accounted for 28 percent of total global arms exports in the past five years, nearly replacing its imports, which account for a third of the world’s total.

That 28 percent of the global market is “four times higher than Russia’s export volume and five times higher than China’s”, said SIPRI.

Russia’s market crumbling

At the same time, Russia, seen as Europe’s main security threat, has seen its share of arms exports collapse by 64 percent in the past five years compared with the previous five years.

“Their exports have dropped off partly because they desperately need what they make themselves,” said General Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe.

“But nobody wants to buy Russian kit because it’s been proven to be not that good … their technology has been defeated by Ukrainian technology,” he told Al Jazeera.

Russia’s top clients are abandoning it, Djokic said.

“China has promoted its own defence industry and has become independent in arms production. For a while, they were importing at least, for instance, Russian-produced engines for Chinese-produced aircraft. Now they have their own design, they don’t really need it,” she said.

Will the US continue to dominate Europe?

Europe depends on the US for a number of reasons, said Djokic.

Some items, such as multiple-launch rocket systems, are not manufactured in Europe, she noted.

Then there is the desire to go for the best-in-class.

“[States] go for something they perceive as superior technology, so you have many air forces wanting to have the F-35 [jets] even though some of them can’t use all the capabilities they gain with that,” said Djokic.

Another example is the battle-proven Patriot antiballistic missile defence system.

But perhaps the biggest reason is the desire to strengthen the security partnership with the US, which has been perceived as the biggest security partner, “especially in the eastern part of the EU”, Djokic said.

For example, Poland, which says it is building Europe’s largest land army, is equipping its armed forces almost exclusively with US weapons.

That may be changing.

Unlike in previous support packages from the EU, Brussels is now insisting that Ukraine give preferential treatment to weapons it can buy in Europe.

That is because after the US moved away from providing aid to Ukraine under President Donald Trump, the EU has become Ukraine’s biggest donor and supporter, sending 195 billion euros ($230bn) to date and voting to lend Ukraine another 90 billion euros ($106bn) over the next two years. Much of that money will now flow back into the EU.

The perception of the US as a security partner is also likely to suffer, said Hodges.

“The transatlantic relationship is still there, but it’s not the same and probably will never be the same,” he said. “Europeans are realising that they have to become less and less dependent on the US if an American president can say, ‘S**** you guys’.”

‘Dangers are not going to go away’

Hodges was referring to Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine in the midst of Russia’s invasion, his questionable commitment to NATO and his threat this year to invade Greenland, a territory belonging to a NATO ally.

“Given Russia’s war in Ukraine, the fighting in the Middle East, the dangers are not going to go away. So most European countries have a more sober, realistic view of the threats and the need for stronger capabilities for deterrence, especially if they sense that the US is not as present or capable or reliable as it has been,” Hodges said.

“You’ll continue to see growth, and investors are more willing to invest in defence now – pension funds, insurance companies – who have traditionally shied away from defence.”

Europe has ploughed 150 billion euros ($175bn) into Security Action for Europe (SAFE), a low-cost loan programme given to member states that buy weapons from other member states. More than 113 billion euros ($113bn) of that have been allocated to member states.

None of these changes in spending and perception is yet reflected in SIPRI’s numbers.

“What we are witnessing now are new orders being placed for European weapons systems, prominently Aristide air defence systems from Germany, or Cesar howitzers from France, where you can tell that this kind of support through the European Union does play a role in promoting within-EU procurement,” said Djokic.

Kyiv, Ukraine – As Washington’s Middle Eastern allies use US-made Patriot air defence systems to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones, Ukraine is about to face a dire shortage of ammunition for them.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin is sure to exploit the shortage of pricey guided missiles the truck-mounted Patriots launch at machinegun speed to down his pride and joy, Russia’s ballistic missiles that he once declared were “indestructible”, experts have told Al Jazeera.

The Patriots were developed in the 1970s to down Soviet missiles whose modifications Russia still rains on Ukraine.

The supply of Patriots to Ukraine began in 2023 and was initially limited to several batteries stationed in the capital, Kyiv. The location of the systems was constantly changed to protect them from Russian attacks.

The Patriots utilise advanced radars to detect targets flying at supersonic speeds and launch their guided missiles with the sound that resembles super-fast electronic beats – up to 32 missiles per minute.

But the noise – along with thunderous shockwaves that follow split-second, sun-bright explosions – made Ukrainians feel safe during harrowing, hours-long Russian assaults that have targeted civilian areas and involve hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles.

Within weeks after their deployment, the Patriots intercepted Russia’s Kinzhal (Dagger) intercontinental ballistic missiles that are launched by supersonic fighter jets and fly in the Earth’s stratosphere.

The interceptions disproved Putin’s earlier claims that the Kinzhals made any Western air defence systems “useless”.

The safety, however, came with a hefty price tag – each Patriot guided missile costs several million dollars, and their manufacturing never exceeded more than 900 units a year.

‘Tomorrow’s problem’

Some 800 guided missiles have been used to repel Iranian aerial attacks within just three days after Tehran began raining its missiles and drones on almost a dozen nations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday.

“Ukraine has never had this many missiles to repel attacks,” Zelenskyy said, reiterating his readiness to dispatch Ukrainian experts and drone interceptors to help Gulf nations counter the attacks.

The shortage of guided missiles is, however, not immediate and may occur in several weeks.

“This is not today’s problem, this is tomorrow’s problem,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Center for Applied Political Studies (Penta) think tank, told Al Jazeera.

But the problem may become catastrophic.

In recent days, Moscow stopped attacking Ukraine with drones and missiles – a sign of amassing them for massive raids in the near future, Fesenko said.

“Russia’s most obvious actions would be to bleed Ukraine’s stock of Patriot missiles dry to inflict maximal damage on us through massive missile attacks,” he said.

Kyiv already faces a less critical problem with the shortage of missiles for Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets that proved effective in downing Russian missiles.

“The problem is less critical, but also vital for us,” Fesenko said.

Ukraine has experienced a shortage of Patriot missiles before.

Last summer, when the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, the Pentagon stopped the Patriot missiles’ supply as it was “auditing” its own stocks.

The suspension of Patriot interceptors and HIMARS multiple rocket launchers left Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, including thermal power stations and transport hubs, more vulnerable to Russian attacks.

Russia’s tactics of indiscriminate aerial strikes have been tried and tested over the past four years.

Moscow starts an air raid with drones and decoy drones to make Ukrainian air defence units use as many Patriot missiles as possible.

It then launches several more waves of attack drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.

As to upcoming attacks, “the question is that this time, it won’t be energy infrastructure, but whatever other targets the Kremlin will want to choose”, Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych told Al Jazeera.

He referred to devastating attacks on energy and central heating facilities that left millions of Ukrainians without power and heat this winter, triggering health problems and deaths from hypothermia.

Russia already targets sites unprotected by Patriots: Military expert

Meanwhile, Israel and the European nations that pledged to transfer their stock of Patriot missiles to Ukraine are reluctant to do so now.

“Considering the general instability, I don’t think that many nations will open up their stock and pass it on to us,” Tyshkevich said.

Since the supplies of Patriots began, the US-Russian technological battle has kept raging on, according to the former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, who for decades specialised in air defence.

“There is a confrontation in engineering,” Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko told Al Jazeera.

“Russians change something, Americans together with our experts change something else, because remaining on the old [technological] level means losing the battle before it begins.”

Russian engineers “modified software making the [Iskander-M] missiles able to manoeuvre mid-air, and the modernisation largely complicated the operation of the few Patriot systems that we have to destroy them,” Romanenko said.

The Patriots, however, have not become a Ukraine-wide aegis against the Russian strikes.

Ukraine has fewer than a dozen batteries, while Kyiv said it needed at least 25.

Russians “already know that we have but a few Patriot batteries against their ballistic missiles, so they were hitting the sites that had not been covered by the Patriots, or where they had not been deployed,” Romanenko said.

Luckily, Ukraine has an alternative.

A handful of French-Italian SAMP/T systems with solid-fuel anti-aircraft missiles have been deployed to Ukraine since 2023 and showed the advantages of their radars and “engagement logic” with high-speed targets.

While a Patriot battery requires up to 90 support servicemen and takes half an hour to deploy, SAMP/Ts require about a dozen.

But their ability to down modified Russian missiles will have to be battle-tested, Romanenko said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s increasingly daring drone and missile strikes deep inside Russia destroy or damage their arm depots and plants producing drones and missiles.

In recent weeks, they hit the Admiral Essen, a Russian frigate capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, nine air defence systems in Russia-occupied Donetsk and Crimea, and Russia’s only plant that produces fibre-optic cable for drones.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accuses Ukraine of carrying out a ‘terrorist attack.’

A Russian tanker carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) has sunk in the Mediterranean between Libya and Malta, as Moscow accused Ukraine of attacking the vessel.

The Libyan port authority said the tanker was hit by “sudden explosions followed by a massive fire, which ultimately led to its complete sinking” on Tuesday night north of the port of Sirte, Libya.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of attacking the gas carrier.

“This is a terrorist attack. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this kind of thing,” Russia’s Putin told a reporter from Russian state television on Wednesday, accusing Kyiv of responsibility.

There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.

Russia’s Transport Ministry said that the Arctic Metagaz, which had been carrying LNG from the Arctic port of Murmansk, was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones launched from the coast of Libya.

It said the 30 crew members, all Russian nationals, were safe, and thanked Maltese rescue services.

“We qualify what happened as an act of international terrorism and maritime piracy, a gross violation of the fundamental norms of international maritime law,” the ministry said.

According to an advisory from Libya’s maritime rescue agency, the Arctic Metagaz sank in waters between Libya and Malta after catching fire on Tuesday night.

It warned vessels to avoid the site where the carrier sank and asked them to report any pollution in the area.

The Libyan port authority said the ship was carrying an estimated 62,000 metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on its way to Port Said, Egypt.

Egypt’s Petroleum Ministry has denied any connection with the tanker.

“The tanker is not listed under any contracts to supply or receive LNG cargoes to Egypt,” the ministry said.

The Arctic Metagaz has been sanctioned by the United States and the European Union as part of Russia’s fleet of ageing tankers that carry oil and gas exports around the world, skirting Western restrictions.

Ukraine has frequently targeted Russian oil refineries and other energy infrastructure in an attempt to deprive Russia’s war machine of funding.

In December, Ukraine said it had hit a Russian tanker with aerial drones in the neutral waters of the Mediterranean Sea, in what was the first such strike there in Russia and Ukraine’s more than four-year war.

These are the key developments from day 1,465 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Saturday, February 28:

Fighting

• Russia struck port infrastructure overnight in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, igniting fires and damaging equipment, warehouses and food containers, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba said.
• A localised truce has been established near the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to allow repairs to power lines, Russian news agencies report, citing the head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation.
• Ukraine shot down a drone near the border with Romania during a Russian attack on port infrastructure on the Danube River, Romania’s Ministry of National Defence said.
• Romania said it scrambled fighter jets and that the drone was brought down 100 metres (110 yards) from the Romanian village of Chilia Veche, on the opposite side of the Danube River to Ukraine.
• Russian forces have taken control of the village of Biliakivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region of eastern Ukraine, the Russian RIA Novosti state news agency reported, citing the Ministry of Defence.
• Ukraine’s military said it struck an oil depot in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region overnight, causing a large fire at the facility.
• Firefighters were trying to bring a fire at an oil refinery in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region under control, local officials said early Saturday.
• Ukraine is considering forming partnerships with allies to build air defences capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and to address a critical shortage of munitions for United States-made Patriot systems, the country’s defence minister said.
• Ghana’s Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa said 55 Ghanaians had been killed fighting in Ukraine, and that some 272 citizens of the African country are believed to have been lured to fight for Russia in Ukraine since 2022.

Regional security

• The Swedish military intercepted a suspected Russian drone off the country’s south coast while a French aircraft carrier was docked in Malmo, officials said.
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was “absurd” to suggest the drone that was electronically disabled near a French aircraft carrier in Sweden earlier this week was Russian.
• The European Commission said Croatia is assessing whether it can legally import seaborne Russian crude to supply Hungary and Slovakia through its Adria pipeline.
• The move by Croatia follows after oil supplies via the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia – the only European Union countries still importing Russian oil – were halted last month due to damage Ukraine blamed on a Russian drone strike.
• In a video posted on Facebook, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to grant Hungarian and Slovak inspectors access to repair and restart the Druzhba pipeline.

• President Zelenskyy said he had not been offered nuclear weapons by the United Kingdom or France, but added he would accept such an offer “with pleasure”, after Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service accused both countries of working to provide Kyiv with a nuclear bomb.
• Poland’s parliament approved a law to implement the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence procurement programme aimed at boosting member states’ military readiness.

Economy

• The International Monetary Fund said its executive board had approved an $8.1bn, four-year loan for Ukraine, anchoring a broader $136.5bn international support package. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need $588bn for post-war reconstruction.
• Economists say Russia is grappling with heavy state defence spending alongside deepening structural challenges, including labour shortages and high inflation.
• Ukraine’s major steelmaker ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih said it is closing another division due to a worsening energy crisis caused by continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power system.

Peace talks

• Bilateral talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Geneva concluded on Thursday, with Kyiv saying preparations are under way for the next round of negotiations aimed at ending the war.
• Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said on X that discussions were held in two formats: separate meetings with the United States and a trilateral session involving the US and Switzerland.
• Umerov said participants spoke with President Zelenskyy and were working to ensure the next three-sided meeting with Russia on a settlement is “as substantive as possible”.

Politics and diplomacy

• Former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has begun advising the Ukrainian government on economic renewal as Kyiv works to rebuild its energy sector before next winter.
• Finland, Ukraine and the Czech Republic will skip the opening ceremony of the Milano Cortina Paralympics in protest against the inclusion of Russian athletes competing under their own flag while the war in Ukraine is ongoing.
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said “diplomacy cannot succeed at the moment” with Russia, and that greater emphasis should be placed on defending Ukraine from Moscow’s aggression.

Kyiv, Ukraine – Posters advertising “The Azov school of landscape design” can be seen inside subway cars and on billboards in Kyiv.

But instead of a smiling gardener surrounded by blossoming trees and flowers, the poster depicts a bearded, smiling soldier with the Azov Corps walking away from a howitzer that spews out a shell to “design” the landscape on the Russian side.

As Ukrainian soldiers keep getting killed and wounded along the crescent-shaped, 1,250-kilometre (777-mile) long front line, Kyiv faces a dire shortage of servicemen.

Individual military units compete for potential recruits and lure them with catchy slogans, witty campaigns, text messages and social media posts that promise thorough training that reduces the risk of getting killed or jobs behind the front line.

Many Ukrainian men of fighting age – 25 to 60 – who cannot refuse the draft choose to join them. Otherwise, they could be rounded up by “conscription patrols” and undergo perfunctory training to end up as storm-troopers – a role which comes with a high risk of death.

“There’s zero training. They don’t care that I won’t survive the very first attack,” Tymofey, a 36-year-old office worker who was forcibly conscripted last year but broke out of two training centres, told Al Jazeera.

Hundreds of thousands of men dodge the draft, pay bribes to flee abroad or illegally cross into European nations amid corruption and coercion on the part of conscription officers, as documented by government officials, media and rights groups.

In the first year after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, men of all ages volunteered in droves, standing for hours outside conscription offices and even travelling to other parts of Ukraine to find a less crowded conscription office that would enlist them.

“The first wave very massive, they were motivated,” a senior serviceman told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity.

But volunteers are rare these days. The average age of conscripts has risen to above 40, and their fitness levels have dropped.

“We get what is left of what is left,” he said of the new recruits in his military unit – adding that infantrymen are “hardest to recruit”.

“They can and will be trained, but there’s a matter of condition. A man in his 50s with a white-collar job and several chronic diseases is not exactly fit,” he said.

Azov’s hiring spree

While recruitment campaigns are very visible, the hiring process is largely non-transparent.

Most of the applications should be filled online, and only prospective candidates are invited to recruitment offices whose locations are not disclosed because Russia targets them with drones, missiles or attacks by people recruited via messaging apps or the dark web.

And when it comes to picking the cream of the crop, Azov, now known as the First National Guard Corps, and its offshoot, The Third Storm Brigade, reign supreme.

Apart from the “school of landscape design,” Azov has billboards and online advertisements offering sarcastically named “courses” in “content making,” “event management” and “cross-fit”.

Azov has, for years, been one of Ukraine’s most outspoken military units, and its servicemen were dubbed “300 Spartans” for their months-long defence of the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol in early 2022 that ended only when top brass ordered them to surrender.

Some 700 of Azov fighters are still behind bars in Russia, facing torture and starvation, according to swapped servicemen and Ukrainian officials.

They have become the bogeymen of the Kremlin propaganda machine that calls them “neo-Nazis” and claims they “terrorise” civilians and stage their killings to blame Russian “liberators”.

Azov had far-right origins, but the current leadership claims to have cleaned up the brigade, denying any links with “extremist” groups. Al Jazeera is unable to independently verify these claims.

The publicity and halo of martyrdom have raised Azov’s domestic profile.

And what its recruiters offer is a “soldier-centred” approach that takes into account each potential serviceman’s background, shape, medical history and military experience – or lack thereof.

“We are building a system centred around a soldier, because a soldier is not a resource, it’s the basis of the whole system,” a senior Azov recruiter who identified himself by his call sign, Tara, told Al Jazeera in one of Azov’s open spaces in central Kyiv.

The open space is a far cry from average Ukrainian conscription centres usually located in gloom, claustrophobic Soviet-era buildings with drafty corridors and creaky floors.

It has a cafeteria with a menu most hipsters would find palatable, and a shop with trendy T-shirts, hoodies and souvenirs.

“A nation that doesn’t stand up for its heroes kneels before the enemy,” a handwritten sign on a wall reads.

Tara said that aspiring Azov servicemen undergo tests and interviews – and choose a job “with the highest efficiency

“We, for our part, guarantee that [the recruits] will serve in the exact position for which they have been approved.”

All of Azov’s recruiters are battle-tested servicemen, said Tara, who volunteered to join nascent Azov in 2014.

With a tidy moustache and at the towering height of six feet, five inches (1.95 metres) tall, he took part in Azov’s transformation from ragtag volunteer crews of football fans and nationalists who were instrumental in repelling the onslaught of Russia-backed separatists in southeastern Ukraine, into a primary military unit.

Meanwhile, smaller, less outspoken units can barely find enough recruits to replenish their losses.

“We ask around, we tell friends, we say that we can make sure they get trained properly, but it’s never enough,” Oleh, a senior officer with a military unit stationed in eastern Ukraine, told Al Jazeera.

And some are adamant that Ukraine should introduce a system of compulsory and universal military service.

“All privileges must be cancelled, all men of fighting age should undergo training and be ready for service. Otherwise, we’ll keep on losing ground,” retired Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera.

Arrest in town near the Ethiopian border follows Kenyan intelligence report revealing more than 1,000 citizens were trafficked for war.

Police in Kenya have arrested a man accused of being a member of a human trafficking scheme that lured Kenyans to Russia with false promises of work, only for them to end up fighting on the front lines of Ukrainian battlefields.

In a statement released late on Wednesday, Kenyan officials said Festus Arasa Omwamba was being detained in Moyale, a town in the country’s north bordering Ethiopia.

The 33-year-old “is believed to be a key player in a more extensive human trafficking syndicate that exploits vulnerable individuals by promising them legitimate employment opportunities in European countries”, read a statement from the Directorate of Criminal Investigations on X. “However, upon arrival, these unsuspecting victims find themselves trapped in illegal and perilous jobs, stripping them of their dignity and safety.”

The suspect was in police custody, undergoing preparation for his “impending” court appearance, it added.

Quoting police spokesperson Michael Muchiri, NTV Kenya reported that Omwamba was arrested after arriving from Russia. He was detained for allegedly recruiting Kenyans into the Russian military, Muchiri said.

The arrest comes after Kenya’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) last week unveiled a report which said more than 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited “to fight in the Russia-Ukraine war”, with 89 currently on the front line, 39 hospitalised, and 28 missing in action.

A day after the NIS released its report, dozens of families protested in Nairobi, demanding the government take action against the network of officials and syndicates tricking locals into joining the war. Many are still awaiting news about their loved ones’ whereabouts and when they might return.

Meanwhile, other families are grieving the deaths of their sons and brothers.

The Russian embassy in Nairobi denies the allegations, calling them in a statement last week “misleading propaganda”. It added that it never issued visas to Kenyan citizens who sought to travel to Russia with the aim to fight in Ukraine. However, the embassy added that Moscow does not preclude citizens of foreign countries from voluntarily enlisting in its armed forces.

Kenya’s Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi said he would travel to Russia in March to engage directly with the authorities and secure a safe return of Kenyans believed to be stranded there.

Fraudulent ‘schemes’ to lure foreign fighters

Reports of African men being fraudulently recruited and wilfully duped for work abroad to end up on the front lines in Ukraine have also surfaced from South Africa, Zimbabwe and elsewhere in Africa.

Ukraine on Wednesday accused Russia of using deception to recruit more than 1,700 Africans to join its war effort as the conflict drags into a fifth year.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha made the allegation during a news conference in Kyiv with his visiting Ghanaian counterpart, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa. He accused Moscow of using fraudulent “schemes” to lure the foreign fighters.

A day earlier, South Africa’s presidency announced it had secured the return home of 11 of its nationals who were “lured” into fighting for Russia in Ukraine. The presidency had already repatriated four others.

Kyiv hopes progress in talks in Geneva will pave the way for a direct meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders.

Russia pounded Ukraine with a barrage of missile and drone attacks across the country overnight, wounding at least eight people, in advance of the latest high-level meeting between Kyiv and Washington aimed at ending the war, now in its fifth year.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the latest attacks on the capital in the early hours of Wednesday caused damage to a nine-storey residential building in the Darnytskyi district, and resulted in fires in a home and garages elsewhere in the city.

The strikes on the capital prompted the activation of air defence systems to counter the attack, Tymur Tkachenko, head of the city’s military administration, said, advising residents to remain in shelters until the assault was over. No casualties were reported in the capital.

Ukraine has faced regular overnight barrages as Russia targets cities with missiles and drones in harsh winter conditions in recent months, also targeting civilian energy infrastructure, even amid an ongoing push by Washington to try to negotiate an end to Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.

Attacks also took place in the regions of Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk, with officials reporting seven wounded in Kharkiv and another in Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk, the AFP news agency reported.

US, Ukrainian delegations to meet

The strikes came before a scheduled meeting in the Swiss city of Geneva between Ukraine’s lead negotiator Rustem Umerov and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, being held in advance of a full session of talks involving Moscow, Kyiv and Washington expected in early March.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday he had spoken with US President Donald Trump before the talks, with Witkoff and Kushner part of the 30-minute call, to discuss the issues that their representatives would cover in Geneva, “as well as preparations for the next meeting of the full negotiating teams in a trilateral format at the very beginning of March”.

Zelenskyy, who has repeatedly sought face-to-face meetings with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to resolve the most challenging issues, said he expected the meeting in Geneva would “create an opportunity to move talks to the leaders’ level”.

“President Trump supports this sequence of steps,” he said. “This is the only way to resolve all the complex and sensitive issues and finally end the war.”

Putin has dismissed such a meeting repeatedly in the past, calling into question Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as Ukraine’s leader.

Meanwhile, Russian state news agency TASS reported the Kremlin’s economic affairs envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, was also due to be in Geneva on Thursday, where he would “pursue negotiations with the Americans on economic issues”.

Negotiations stalled

Despite Trump’s desire to bring an end to the conflict, one he claimed he could end in 24 hours after he retook office, the talks so far have failed to bear fruit.

Negotiations, based on a US plan unveiled late last year, have hit a roadblock over the thorniest territorial issues, such as control of the eastern Donbas, an industrial region in eastern Ukraine that has been at the heart of the fiercest fighting.

Russia is pushing for full control of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, in the Donbas, and has threatened to take it by force if Kyiv does not cave in at the negotiating table.

But Ukraine has rejected the demand and signalled it would not sign a deal without security guarantees that deter Russia from invading again. The Ukrainian constitution also forbids the ceding of territory.

Hundreds of thousands of people on both sides are believed to have been killed in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A number of European leaders prayed with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, during a service to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Kyiv, Ukraine – Hennady Kolesnik never expected the full-scale Russian invasion to last this long.

“These are the worst and longest years of my life,” the 71-year-old retired welder told Al Jazeera four years after the aggression that began on February 24, 2022.

In the first days of the war, he and many Ukrainians were afraid Kyiv would be lost, as well as the third of their France-sized nation that lies on the left, eastern bank of the Dnipro River.

Tens of thousands of Russian troops, including elite airborne units and motor rifle brigades, occupied north of the Kyiv region, while the Kremlin’s supporters triumphantly touted that the capital would be seized “within three days”.

Months later, “we were ecstatic about what we’d regained” after Russian forces withdrew from around Kyiv and were ousted from northern Ukraine, said Kolesnik, a grey-haired, pallid-faced and emaciated pensioner, clutching a cane.

He is recovering from a case of pneumonia that he feared he would not survive amid days-long power outages and disruptions of central heating caused by Russian drones and missiles during a cold spell, when temperatures plunged to as low as -23 degrees Celsius (-9.4 degrees Fahrenheit).

“But we’re still standing, and that’s the most important thing in a fight,” Kolesnik, who used to dabble in boxing, said with a smile.

His wife, Marina, 70, agreed: “Nobody expected us to last that long, and we’re still here.”

However, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive failed to cut Moscow’s “land bridge” from western Russia to annexed Crimea, and Russian troops keep inching forward.

But their advance is glacial amid staggering losses. Last year, they occupied less than 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 sq miles), or about 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s total area, according to Ukrainian officials and Western analysts.

Overall, Russia controls about 19 percent of Ukraine’s territory.

“The front line froze like during World War I,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University told Al Jazeera. “So far, Russia doesn’t have enough forces or new technologies for a decisive and successful advance, but it can still squander thousands of [its soldiers’] lives.”

This month, Russian forces encountered a dual communication problem that reversed their progress.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX company shut down smuggled Starlink satellite internet terminals used by Russian soldiers, while Moscow’s efforts to block the Telegram messaging app further disrupted coordination.

Ukrainian forces counterattacked, regaining about 200 sq km (77 sq miles) in the eastern Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

But in other front-line areas, the pressure is mounting.

Russian drones with attached optic fibre immune to jamming began reaching a heavily-fortified town in the southeastern Donetsk region.

“It has gotten a lot noisier. There are more outages; some locals are panicking,” Sviatoslav, a serviceman stationed in Kramatorsk, told Al Jazeera. He withheld his last name in accordance with wartime protocol.

Moscow insists Kyiv surrender Kramatorsk and the rest of Donetsk – about 1,000 sq km (386 sq miles).

What could affect Ukraine’s stance is further Russian strikes on energy infrastructure.

“Ukraine keeps the front line well, but the functionality of its energy system is hanging by a thread, which may affect a lot,” Mitrokhin said.

Eighty-eight percent of Ukrainians think Russia’s strikes are designed to “force them to capitulate”, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute (KMIS) conducted in late January.

Nevertheless, two-thirds of those polled said Ukraine’s armed forces should fight for “as long as it takes”.

“People en masse are more ready to keep resisting [the invasion] than to capitulate,” Svetlana Chunikhina, vice president of the Association of Political Psychologists, a Kyiv-based group, told Al Jazeera.

And even though there is a spike in depression, anxiety, and chronic stress among Ukrainians, there are no “abrupt jumps” in these conditions, she said.

“People adapt – including through depression – to the war’s horrible circumstances; people keep functioning,” she said.

Ukrainians still hope for a better future, she said.

Only one in five polled Ukrainians hopes the war will end this year, but two in three are sure that in 10 years, Ukraine will be a “thriving” member of the European Union.

“This is the literal realisation of the philosophic principle: ‘get ready for the worst, hope for the best,’” Chunikhina said.

However, brain fog and cynicism are on the rise, she said.

“For the Ukrainian public whose fight against the Russian aggression is largely fuelled by moral virtues – including high ones, such as altruism, patriotism, responsibility to future generations – cynicism could be really destructive,” she said.

News brings little relief.

United States President Donald Trump has so far failed to deliver on his pre-election pledge to end the war “in 24 hours”.

Meanwhile, Russian public figures who support the Kremlin still try to present the invasion as a step to “protect” Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

Moscow-based analyst Sergey Markov claims that the war began on February 23, 2014, when pro-Russian protesters began rallying in Crimea, urging the Kremlin to annex the Ukrainian peninsula.

“It was a peaceful uprising of the Russian people for freedom, peace and true democracy,” he wrote on Telegram on Monday.

Ukraine officials say infrastructure damaged as Russia strikes Zaporizhzhia on the war’s fourth anniversary.

European Union fails to approve further Russia sanctions and a $106bn loan to Ukraine after Hungary refuses to agree.

The European Union has imposed sanctions on a new group of eight Russian individuals suspected of serious human rights violations, as EU member state Hungary vetoed additional sanctions on Moscow and a crucial loan for Ukraine on the eve of the war’s fourth anniversary.

The European Council on Monday said the individuals were members of the judiciary responsible ⁠for sentencing prominent Russian activists on politically motivated charges, as well as heads of penal colonies where political prisoners were held in inhuman and degrading conditions.

Under the sanctions, the individuals are banned from ⁠travelling to or transiting through the EU, their ⁠assets are frozen, and EU citizens and companies are prohibited from making funds available to them.

So far, 72 individuals have been hit by similar measures, including members of the judiciary, Ministry ⁠of Justice officials, and senior figures within Russia’s prison ⁠network.

The announcement came as the bloc failed to agree on a 20th sanctions package targeting the ‌Russian authorities more broadly and ‌a $106bn loan for Ukraine.

Hungary, the friendliest EU state to the Kremlin, vetoed the measures – which required unanimous approval within the EU bloc – following claims that Kyiv is delaying restarting the flow of Russian oil via a Soviet-era pipeline.

Kyiv says the Druzhba pipeline, which still carries Russian oil over Ukrainian territory to Europe, was damaged a month ago by a Russian drone strike, and it is fixing it as fast as it can.

Hungary and Slovakia, which have the EU’s only ⁠two refineries that still rely on oil via Druzhba, blame Ukraine for the delay.

Tensions were further exacerbated on Monday as Ukrainian security officials claimed to have launched a drone attack that sparked a fire at a Russian pumping station serving the Druzhba oil ⁠pipeline.

‘Message we didn’t want to send’

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told reporters ahead of the EU meeting that Budapest would block the loan as Kyiv had taken the “political decision” to “endanger our energy security”.

“The Druzhba pipeline has not been hit by any Russian attack, the pipeline itself has not been harmed, and currently there is no physical reason and no physical obstacle to reinstall the deliveries,” he said.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the failure to approve the new package a “setback and message we didn’t want to send today, but the work continues”.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said in a post on X that Hungary and Slovakia should not be allowed to “hold the entire EU hostage” and called on them to “engage in constructive cooperation and responsible behaviour”.

Maximilian Hess, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the loan was “crucial for keeping Kyiv able to finance itself going forward in this conflict”.

Hess argued Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is using the issue to his political advantage ahead of elections on April 12.

“Orban is trying to make this a political issue, and he’s trying to blame his own economic difficulties on Ukraine [to boost] his chances in this election,” the analyst told Al Jazeera.

Independent polls suggest the right-wing nationalist leader is facing the most serious challenge yet in his 16 years as prime minister.

Slovakia had issued a two-day ultimatum to Ukraine to reopen the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline so that it could receive Russian oil deliveries.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said his country will halt emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine until Kyiv reopens a key pipeline transporting Russian oil to Slovakia, making good on an ultimatum he issued to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Fico’s announcement on Monday came two days after he warned Zelenskyy on social media that he would ask state-owned company SEPS to halt emergency supplies of electricity if flows of Russian crude oil via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline crossing Ukraine did not resume.

“As of today, if the Ukrainian side turns to Slovakia with a request for assistance in stabilising the Ukrainian energy grid, such assistance will not be provided,” Fico said in a video on his Facebook page.

Ukrainian grid operator Ukrenergo said in a statement that it had not been officially informed yet, but that it would “not affect the situation in the unified power system of Ukraine”.

“The last time Ukraine requested emergency assistance from Slovakia was over a month ago and in a very limited volume,” it said.

Fico said the stoppage would be lifted “as soon as the transit of oil to Slovakia is restored”.

“Otherwise, we will take further reciprocal steps,” he said, adding his country would also reconsider “its previously constructive positions on Ukraine’s EU membership”.

He said the stalled oil supply was a “purely political decision aimed at blackmailing Slovakia over its international positions on the war in Ukraine”.

Slovakia and neighbouring Hungary, which have both remained dependent on Russian oil since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago, have become increasingly vocal in demanding that Kyiv resume deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, which was shut down after what Ukraine said was a Russian drone strike hit infrastructure in late January.

Ukraine says it is fixing the damage on the pipeline, which still carries Russian oil over Ukrainian territory to Europe, as fast as it can.

Slovakia and Hungary say Ukraine is to blame for the prolonged outage and have declared emergencies over the cut in oil deliveries.

The EU imposed a ban on most oil imports from Russia in 2022, but the Druzhba pipeline was exempted to give landlocked Central European countries time to find alternative oil supplies.

Meanwhile, the European Union failed to agree on new sanctions on Russia for the fourth anniversary of Europe’s biggest war since World War II, after Hungary vetoed the move.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban – the friendliest EU leader to the Kremlin – is stalling the sanctions and a 90-billion-euro ($106bn) EU loan to Ukraine until Kyiv reopens the oil pipeline.

Fico also said he has refused to “involve the Slovak Republic” in the latest EU loan due to Zelenskyy’s “unacceptable behaviour”, alluding to Ukraine’s earlier halting of Russian gas supplies after a five-year-old transit agreement expired on January 1, 2025, which Fico claimed is costing Slovakia “damages of 500 million [euros; $590m] per year”.

Hungary and Slovakia have accounted for 68 percent of Ukraine’s imported power this month, according to Kyiv-based consultancy ExPro. It was not immediately clear if emergency electricity supplies were included in that figure.

Main target was the energy sector, but residential buildings and a railway were also damaged, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.

Russia has launched dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones at Ukraine, killing at least one person, according to Ukrainian officials.

The most powerful attacks were reported in the regions of Kyiv, Odesa and Kharkiv, the officials said on Sunday.

Ukraine’s air force said Moscow launched 50 ballistic and cruise missiles and 297 drones overnight, the majority of which were intercepted.

“Moscow continues to invest in strikes more than in diplomacy,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, adding that this past week alone, Russia launched more than 1,300 drones, ‌more than 1,400 guided aerial bombs and 96 missiles against Ukraine.

The president added that Sunday’s attacks targeted the Dnipro, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Sumy regions.

The main target of the attack was the energy sector, but residential buildings and a railway were also damaged, he noted.

In a separate incident in the western city of Lviv, which has been largely spared the worst of the conflict, a policewoman was killed and 25 people were injured in the detonation of explosive devices inside a shop on a central shopping street.

Hours later, law enforcement said it had arrested a Ukrainian woman suspected of carrying out the bombing, without providing any further details and saying an investigation was ongoing.

Kyiv attack

Mykola Kalashnyk, head of Kyiv’s military administration, said on Telegram that Russian forces targeted five districts in the Kyiv region, injuring at least 15 people, including four children, and killing one person.

Russian attacks were also reported in the eastern region of Kharkiv, where Governor Oleh Syniehubov said at least 12 settlements were targeted and six people injured.

In southern Ukraine, fires broke out in the region of Odesa as Russian drones struck energy infrastructure, according to Governor Oleh Kiper.

“Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries. An assessment of the state of energy facilities and elimination of the consequences is ongoing,” Kiper wrote on Telegram.

Attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities have become a near-daily occurrence in winter during Russia’s war in Ukraine, which started almost four years ago when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of the neighbouring country.

These attacks deprive millions of Ukrainians of heat, power and running water as temperatures have dropped below minus 10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit), causing thick ice to cover roads and the Dnipro, Europe’s fifth largest river.

Last week, Russia unleashed a barrage of nearly 400 drones and 29 missiles on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on the first day of two days of peace negotiations in Geneva, its second large-scale blow in six days.

On February 12, another attack had left 100,000 families without electricity and 3,500 apartment buildings without heat in Kyiv alone.

Sunday’s attacks come as the United States is trying to reach a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.

But these efforts – including the talks in Geneva last week and two earlier sessions in the United Arab Emirates – have failed to reach any breakthrough.

A core sticking point is territory. Russia wants Ukraine to pull out from the remaining 20 percent of its eastern region of Donetsk that the Kremlin’s forces have failed to capture – something firmly rejected by Kyiv.

Ukraine does not want to make territorial concessions and is demanding clear security guarantees that it will not be attacked by Russia again if a ceasefire is reached.

These are the key developments from day 1,459 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Sunday, February 22:

Fighting

• A Russian drone attack on Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region killed four people, including a 17-year-old boy, while another attack on the southeastern Zaporizhia region killed a 77-year-old man, according to Ukrainian authorities.
• Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Odesa region wounded two people and caused damage to homes, cars and an energy facility, officials said. Another Russian attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region wounded a 77-year-old man.
• In the Donetsk region, Russian shelling wounded four people in 18 attacks throughout the day, Governor Vadym Filashkin wrote on Telegram. Authorities evacuated 562 people, including 244 children, from front-line settlements.
• Russian forces also hit the facility of US snack food company Mondelez in Sumy, sparking a reaction from Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha, who wrote on X that Russia was “targeting American business interests in Europe”.
• “Moscow cannot speak of economic dialogue with the United States while attacking US-owned production facilities,” Sybiha added.
• In the front-line Kherson region, Russian shelling wounded two police officers and one civilian, Ukraine’s National Police wrote on Telegram. Three apartment buildings, 18 homes, a hospital and numerous public buildings sustained damage.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian security forces “neutralised Russian mercenaries preparing assassination attempts” against “high-profile” figures, including military personnel, intelligence officers and journalists.
• Moscow’s ⁠forces ⁠took control of the village of ⁠Karpivka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk ⁠region, the Russian RIA state news agency reported on Saturday, citing ‌the Ministry of Defence.
• A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Belgorod region wounded a man and a three-year-old child, according to the Russian TASS news.
• The Ukrainian General Staff said Ukraine’s home-produced “Flamingo” cruise missiles hit a Russian ballistic missile plant in the Udmurtia region, as well as a gas plant in the Samara region.

Politics and diplomacy

• Zelenskyy held discussions with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the next round of trilateral negotiations with the US and Russia, as well as Ukraine’s energy situation. He said on X that “in many areas, our views align”.
• Zelenskyy said in his evening address that “we continue working every day… so that the next round of negotiations can deliver results for Ukraine, results for peace”.The Ukrainian leader said he was closely coordinating with European partners so that the European Union is “involved in all processes and grows only stronger”.
• Demonstrators in Washington, DC, Paris, and Prague rallied in support of Ukraine ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24.
• Zelenskyy awarded Ukraine’s civilian award, the Order of Princess Olga, to Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo in the Ukrainian capital. Hidalgo’s visit marked her sixth trip to Kyiv since the start of the war.
• Sybiha, the Ukrainian foreign minister, condemned Russia’s alleged ongoing recruitment of Kenyans and other Africans into Moscow’s war, writing that it “evokes the worst memories of colonial attitudes from the past” and warning Africans against signing contracts with Russian recruiters.
• Ukraine enforced new sanctions against the captains of vessels allegedly transporting Russian oil, a list that Zelenskyy said totalled 225 people.

Energy

• Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to stop providing emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine unless Kyiv resumed Russian oil transit to Slovakia over Ukrainian territory, through the Druzhba pipeline. Hungary said it would block a 90 billion euro ($106bn) EU loan for Ukraine for the same reason.
• Shipments of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia have been cut ⁠off since January 27, when Kyiv says a Russian drone strike hit pipeline equipment in Western Ukraine. Slovakia and Hungary say Ukraine is to blame for the prolonged outage.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it “rejects and condemns” Hungary and Slovakia’s statements and that the “provocative, irresponsible ultimatums threaten the energy security of the entire region”.
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticised Hungary’s move on X, writing, “Guess who’s happy”, in an apparent reference to Russia.

Military aid

• The Czech Republic transferred 200 reconnaissance drones to five Ukrainian brigades, equipment worth about $800,000, Ukraine’s Interfax news agency reported.
• Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in an interview with the BBC that the United Kingdom and the EU should send “peaceful ground forces” to “show our support for a free, independent Ukraine”.

Slovakia and Hungary vexed after Russian oil flows via Ukraine halted by alleged Russian drone strike last month.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has issued Ukraine a two-day deadline to resume the pumping of Russian oil through its territory, threatening to cut off electricity to the war-torn country if this demand is not met.

Fico issued his ultimatum to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday, warning on X that he would ask state-owned company SEPS to halt emergency supplies of electricity if flows of Russian crude via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline crossing Ukraine are not resumed by Monday.

Slovakia and neighbouring Hungary, which have both remained dependent on Russian oil since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago, have become increasingly vocal in demanding Kyiv resume deliveries through the pipeline, which was shut down after what Ukraine said was a Russian drone strike hit infrastructure in late January.

The Slovak leader accused Zelenskyy of acting “maliciously” towards his country, alluding to Ukraine’s earlier halting of Russian gas supplies after a five-year-old transit agreement expired on January 1, 2025, which he claimed is costing Slovakia “damages of 500 million [euros; about $589m] per year”.

Describing Zelenskyy’s actions as “unacceptable behaviour”, he said that his refusal to “involve the Slovak Republic in the latest 90 billion euros ($105bn) military loan for Ukraine” had been “absolutely correct”.

Slovakia is a major source of European electricity for Ukraine, needed as Russian attacks have damaged its grid. Energy sector experts say Slovakia provided 18 percent of record-setting Ukrainian electricity imports last month.

EU loan in peril

Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic all opposed the interest-free European Union loan package, which was agreed to by the bloc’s member states back in December to help Ukraine meet its military and economic needs over the coming two years.

While the three nations opposed the package, which replaced a contentious plan to use frozen Russian assets that ran aground over legal concerns, a compromise was reached in which they did not block the initiative and were promised protection from any financial fallout.

However, as tensions mounted over the interrupted supply of Russian oil this week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban threatened on Friday to overturn December’s deal by vetoing the EU loan package.

“As long as Ukraine blocks the Druzhba pipeline, Hungary will block the 90‑billion-euro Ukrainian war loan. We will not be pushed around!” the Hungarian leader wrote on Facebook.

Slovakia and Hungary both received a temporary exemption from an EU policy prohibiting imports of Russian oil over the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine responds

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs slammed Slovakia and Hungary on Saturday for what it called their “ultimatums and blackmail” over energy issues, saying the two countries are “playing into the hands of the aggressor [Russia]”.

The ministry said that Ukraine had provided information on the damage that resulted from “Russian attacks” on the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, and that repair work is under way.

In the meantime, it said, it has “also proposed alternative ways to resolve the issue of supplying non-Russian oil to these countries”.