runoff

Oct. 18 (UPI) — Bolivia’s presidential runoff election on Sunday is the nation’s first and excludes a socialist candidate after voters narrowed the field to two conservative candidates on Friday.

Christian Democratic Party candidate Sen. Rodrigo Paz Pereira secured 32% of the popular vote to lead all candidates, while former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga secured the second-most with 27% of votes to set up Sunday’s runoff, according to Americas Quarterly.

Paz is a centrist candidate and the son of former Bolivian President Jaime Paz Zamora, who led the nation from 1989 to 1993.

Quiroga, 67, was serving as Bolivia’s vice president when he ascended to the presidency for one year, from Aug. 7, 2001, to Aug. 6, 2002, following the resignation of President Hugo Banzer due to a cancer diagnosis.

He was elected vice president in 1997 at age 37, which made him the nation’s youngest person to hold that office.

Quiroga was defeated in three prior campaigns to be elected president, but many now view him as the favorite.

His platform includes establishing a free market economic system rooted in capitalism and that supports private property rights for citizens.

He also wants to transfer government ownership of the nation’s ample natural resources, especially natural gas, iron and lithium, to private citizens and entities.

Paz, 58, also wants to establish a market-based economy and made “Capitalism for All” his campaign’s motto.

The lack of a socialist candidate in the presidential runoff is viewed as a public rebuke of the Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement Towards Socialism) Party, which has controlled Bolivia’s politics over the past two decades.

Bolivia has been one of South America’s leading socialist states over the past 20 years, but the nation is mired in an economic collapse that many attribute to government mismanagement of natural resources, according to The Telegraph.

MAS presidential candidate Eduardo del Castillo received only 3% of the vote during the first round of voting.

The MAS party also is about to lose its majorities in both houses of the Bolivian Legislature amid recent controversies.

They include an arrest warrant for former MAS Party member and former President Evo Morales being issued due to an alleged statutory rape.

As voters in Bolivia prepare to go to the polls for the final round of the country’s presidential election, there is no left-wing candidate on the ballot for the first time in nearly two decades.

Since the last election, the current governing party, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), has suffered an implosion, with party leaders splintering off and attacking one another.

Amid the fracas, MAS failed to advance a candidate to the run-off election, meaning its leadership — nearly uninterrupted since 2006 — is slated to come to an end.

A centrist and a right-wing candidate are now facing off in Sunday’s highly anticipated run-off.

But the election is unlikely to smooth over the divides that have fractured and destabilised Bolivian politics in recent years, with a severe economic crisis spurring continuing unrest.

Who are the candidates? What issues are front and centre for voters? And what challenges could the new government face in the months ahead? We answer those questions and more in this brief explainer.

When does voting take place?

The run-off vote will take place on October 19, with the winner of the election inaugurated on November 8.

What was the result of the first round?

The final stage of the election is itself a sign of the shifting and unpredictable state of the country’s politics.

Rodrigo Paz, one of the two final candidates, was the surprise victor in the first round of voting despite registering less than 10 percent in early polling. He carried more than 32 percent of the votes in the August 17 general election.

His rival is Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a former president who came in second place with nearly 27 percent of the vote.

Neither met the threshold to win the presidency outright, which would have required winning 50 percent of the vote, or 40 percent with a 10-point margin over the nearest competitor.

Who is Rodrigo Paz?

Paz is a senator and the son of the former left-wing President Jaime Zamora.

Though he has aligned himself with various parties throughout his career, in this election, he is representing the centre-right Christian Democratic Party.

Paz has pitched himself as a more moderate voice who will embrace pro-market policies while taking a cautious approach to austerity measures. “Capitalism for All” is his campaign slogan.

His running mate, meanwhile, is Edman Lara, an evangelical Christian and former police officer who resigned from his position and became a popular figure on social media for his outspoken criticism of corruption.

Who is Jorge Quiroga?

Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga is a businessman and former president.

Early in his career, he worked in Texas for the multinational tech company IBM. But his interests shifted to politics, particularly in the 1990s, and he even worked under Paz’s father as Bolivia’s finance minister.

In 1997, Quiroga ran as the running mate on the successful presidential ticket of Hugo Banzer, who led a military dictatorship in the 1970s. But when Banzer was diagnosed with cancer and resigned in 2001, Quiroga succeeded him as president, serving the remainder of his term.

Quiroga’s subsequent bids for the presidency have fallen short: He lost in 2005, 2014 and 2020.

In this election, he is running on a stridently pro-market platform as the head of a right-wing coalition, the Libre Alliance.

Quiroga’s running mate is Juan Pablo Velasco, a 38-year-old tech entrepreneur.

What do the polls say?

Polling currently shows Quiroga with a slight advantage, but analysts have pointed out that polling before the first round of voting failed to detect support for Paz.

A poll taken between October 1 and 6 by the research firm CB Consultora found that Paz has an approval rating of 42.5 percent. Quiroga, meanwhile, leads with 56.7 percent approval.

While 75 percent of respondents said they would vote in the run-off, CB Consultora said protest votes — with ballots intentionally left blank or spoiled — are expected to increase.

What happened to Bolivia’s left?

Under the presidency of Evo Morales from 2006 to 2019, the left-wing MAS party oversaw a period of strong economic growth while simultaneously decreasing inequality, a rare feat.

That translated into electoral dominance for Morales, who is considered the country’s first Indigenous president.

But an electoral crisis in 2019 resulted in Morales fleeing the country after seeking a contested fourth term, in circumstances that his supporters have characterised as a coup.

The crisis caused a brief interruption in MAS leadership, and the post-election period saw turmoil and widespread protests, with the short-lived right-wing government overseeing a deadly crackdown.

In 2020, the left returned to power when Morales’s finance minister became the current president, Luis Arce. But internal divides have critically weakened MAS, leading to Morales leaving the party.

Courts have barred Morales, who faces an arrest warrant for alleged statutory rape, from seeking a fourth term. But Morales has persisted in his efforts, characterising the ban on his candidacy as an assault on his rights.

He has called upon his followers, many of whom are rural and Indigenous voters, to boycott the vote.

What issues are front and centre?

For many Bolivians, concerns about the economy and the cost of living are top of mind as they head to the polls.

High inflation and fuel shortages, along with dwindling foreign currency reserves, have been a source of hardship.

“People are waiting in line for hours at a time for gasoline,” said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network, a Bolivia-based group that promotes human rights. “Diesel, which is important for the transportation of other goods, is even worse.”

Polling compiled by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas (ASCOA) shows that 24 percent of Bolivians consider the economy their primary concern this election season. Another 17 percent cited price increases as a top concern, and fuel shortages were at 14 percent.

What controversies have defined the election?

Velasco, Quiroga’s vice presidential running mate, has faced scrutiny over a series of racist social media posts he made in the past, celebrating violence against the country’s Indigenous population.

The posts, some of which are nearly 15 years old, were initially unearthed by an Argentinian social media figure. Bolivian fact-checking agencies have since verified the posts.

Velasco responded by denying that he authored the posts. He has also attacked the fact-checkers, prompting the Bolivian press association to release a statement in support of the fact-checking agencies.

What policies have the candidates proposed?

Both Quiroga and Paz are promising pro-market policies and a departure from the left-wing programme that has dominated Bolivian politics for the last two decades.

Where the two candidates differ is over how quickly to implement those economic changes.

Quiroga has said that he will cut spending on social programmes and fuel subsidies, privatise state enterprises, and seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Paz has been more hesitant when it comes to embracing calls for austerity and steep cuts to social programmes, although he has also said that he would cut fuel subsidies.

He has also suggested that Bolivia could lower tariffs to help import goods that the country does not produce itself and expressed interest in greater integration into regional trade blocs, such as MERCOSUR.

What will the election mean for relations with the United States?

The administration of US President Donald Trump has expressed approval over the prospect of a right-wing government in Bolivia.

Bilateral ties under MAS leadership had been strained over conflicting policies towards growing coca, a major crop in Bolivia and the raw ingredient for cocaine.

On October 14, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed the election outright, calling it “important”.

“Later this month, there’ll be an election in Bolivia,” Rubio said. “After 25, 30 years of anti-American, hostile governments, both of the candidates running in that election, in the run-off election, want strong and better relations with the United States. Another transformative opportunity there.”

Morales, a firm critic of the US “war on drugs”, expelled the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in 2008 and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in 2013, alleging it was working to influence Bolivian politics.

“There was a great deal of frustration in Washington, DC, because this was a refutation of the idea that, to govern successfully, you need cooperation and funding from the US,” said Ledebur.

Both Paz and Quiroga have said that they will seek closer ties with the US. Quiroga, in particular, has been a critic of left-wing governments in Latin America, including in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, with which MAS had cultivated ties.

That shift comes at a moment when the Trump administration is taking on a more aggressive stance in Latin America, pushing a highly militarised approach to combating drug trafficking and using US influence to assist right-wing allies in countries such as Argentina and Brazil.

What’s next for the Bolivian left?

After years of dominance, Bolivia’s political left is preparing for a period in the political wilderness.

The candidate for MAS, Eduardo del Castillo, won just 3.2 percent in the first round of voting in August. A former MAS member, Andronico Rodriguez, won approximately 8 percent of the vote.

Many former MAS supporters have turned to Paz due to his populist stance and softer approach towards economic austerity, and Ledebur says that the once-powerful left will have to mend internal rifts and find a new path forward.

But the forces that have powered the Bolivian left for decades, such as Indigenous and rural voting blocs, are likely to remain a formidable force, even if MAS finds itself out of power.

Ledebur says that efforts to implement harsh austerity measures could spark strong backlash and protests.

She predicts that conflict with the new government could help unite the left around a common cause, but that doing so will take time.

“The left will definitely have to change something after its defeat in the election,” she said. “There will be a reconfiguration, but it could take a long time.”

The election in Frankfurt an der Oder, a city on the border with Poland, is between Independent candidate Axel Strasser and AfD contender Wilko Moller.

Voters in the eastern city of Frankfurt an der Oder have cast their ballots in a run-off election that could give the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, the largest opposition party in parliament, its first mayoral victory in a German city.

Independent candidate Axel Strasser and AfD contender Wilko Moller faced off on Sunday after leading the first-round vote on September 21, with Strasser receiving 32.4 percent of the vote and Moller 30.2 percent.

Candidates from the centre-right Christian Democratic Union and the centre-left Social Democratic Party were eliminated in the first round.

The election comes three days after the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, stripped two AfD lawmakers of their parliamentary immunity, with one accused of defamation and the other of making a Nazi salute, which is illegal in Germany.

Political scientist Jan Philipp Thomeczek, of the University of Potsdam, told the dpa news agency that a victory for Moller would send “a very strong signal” that the anti-immigrant and eurosceptic AfD can succeed in urban areas.

Frankfurt an der Oder is a city in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, located directly on the border with Poland. It is distinct from Frankfurt am Main, the much larger financial hub in western Germany.

The German Association of Towns and Municipalities says there is currently no AfD-affiliated mayor of a city of significant size anywhere in the country.

Tim Lochner became mayor of the town of Pirna, near the Czech border, after being nominated for election in 2023 by the AfD, but he is technically an independent.

An AfD politician, Robert Sesselmann, is the district administrator in the Sonneberg district in Thuringia. There are also AfD mayors in small towns in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.

The Brandenburg domestic intelligence service in May classified the AfD’s state branch as “confirmed far-right extremist”, a label the party rejects as a politically driven attempt to marginalise it.

A 1,100-page report compiled by the agency – that will not be made public – concluded that the AfD is a racist and anti-Muslim organisation.

The designation makes the party subject to surveillance and has revived discussion over a potential ban for the AfD, which has launched a legal challenge against the intelligence service.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio sharply criticised the classification when it was announced, branding it as “tyranny in disguise”, and urged German authorities to reverse the move.

In response, Germany hit back at US President Donald Trump’s administration, suggesting officials in Washington should study history.

“We have learnt from our history that right-wing extremism needs to be stopped,” said Germany’s Federal Foreign Office in a statement.

The Kremlin also criticised the action against the AfD, which regularly repeats Russian narratives regarding the war in Ukraine, and what it called a broader trend of “restrictive measures” against political movements in Europe.

Brandenburg leaders say the AfD has shown contempt for government institutions, while the state’s domestic intelligence chief, Wilfried Peters, added that the party advocates for the “discrimination and exclusion” of people who do not “belong to the German mainstream”.

Polling stations closed at 6pm local time (16:00 GMT), and results were expected by late Sunday.

Patrick Herminie wins 52.7 percent of the vote, denying incumbent Wavel Ramkalawan a second term in office.

Seychelles’s opposition leader, Patrick Herminie, has won the country’s presidential race, defeating incumbent leader Wavel Ramkalawan in a run-off vote, according to the electoral commission.

Herminie won 52.7 percent of the vote, while Ramkalawan took 47.3 percent, official results announced early on Sunday showed.

In his victory speech, Herminie pledged to lower the cost of living, revive public services and unite the island nation.

“The people have spoken,” the 62-year-old said at the headquarters of the electoral commission.

“I am deeply humbled for the trust that the people have placed in me. I will be the president of all Seychellois, and I will end divisions by ceasing preferences, and giving everyone the opportunity to thrive,” he said.

Herminie’s victory gives his United Seychelles party full control of the government after it also reclaimed a majority in parliament during the first round of the general election last month.

The win is also a complete turnaround for Herminie, who in 2023 was arrested on charges of witchcraft that were later dropped. He previously served as speaker of the country’s parliament from 2007 to 2016.

Ramkalawan, who attended the electoral commission’s announcement of the results, congratulated Herminie, who becomes Seychelles’s sixth president.

“I leave with a legacy that makes many presidents blush… I hope President Herminie continues to maintain such a level,” he said.

Images published by the Seychelles Nation newspaper showed the two leaders shaking hands after the announcement.

Outside the electoral commission headquarters, thousands of Herminie’s supporters erupted in cheers and waved the country’s flag and party banners as they greeted him following his proclamation as the winner, according to videos on social media.

The race between the two main contenders was decided in a run-off after there was no outright winner in the presidential vote two weeks ago. Early voting began on Thursday, but most people in the island nation voted on Saturday.

Herminie and Ramkalawan ran spirited campaigns trying to address key issues for voters, including environmental damage and a crisis of drug addiction in a country long seen as a tourist haven.

Ramkalawan campaigned for re-election on his management of Seychelles’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and expansion of social protections.

But voters opted for Herminie, who accused Ramkalawan of presiding over a proliferation of corruption, and promised to cancel a hotel project permitted by his government that environmentalists say threatens a UNESCO-listed coral atoll.

Herminie has also pledged to lower the retirement age from 65 to 63 and implement recommendations from a truth and reconciliation commission that examined human rights abuses related to a 1977 coup and its aftermath.

A physician by training, he previously headed the government’s anti-drug agency, and has promised to tackle the country’s sky-high heroin addiction, blamed in part on the fact that the islands sit on a drug route between Africa and Asia.

The country’s Agency for Prevention of Drug Abuse and Rehabilitation says that 5,000 to 6,000 people use heroin out of a population of about 120,000. Other estimates put the figure as high as 10,000.

Seychelles, a nation of 115 islands, is Africa’s wealthiest country per capita.

Located across 1.2 million square kilometres (463,000 sq miles) in the western Indian Ocean, it is a prime tourist destination as well as a target for investment from, and security cooperation with, China, Gulf nations and India.

African island nation decides its future as Wavel Ramkalawan seeks a second term against Patrick Herminie.

Voters in Seychelles have been casting their ballots in a tightly fought presidential run-off between incumbent Wavel Ramkalawan and opposition leader Patrick Herminie.

Polls opened in the African island nation on Saturday, with results expected on Sunday.

The election will determine whether Ramkalawan of the governing Linyon Demokratik Seselwa party secures a second five-year term or Herminie’s United Seychelles party returns to power after losing control five years ago.

The United Seychelles party, led by Herminie, was the governing party between 1977 and 2022, before losing power.

It regained ground in last month’s parliamentary elections, winning 15 of 26 seats.

Neither candidate won outright in the first round two weeks ago.

Herminie led with 48.8 percent of the vote compared with Ramkalawan’s 46.4 percent, forcing a final round run-off in the nation of 120,000 people.

Early voting began on Thursday at special locations including elderly care homes, schools and several outer islands. Main polling stations opened after 7am (03:00 GMT) on Saturday for the more than 77,000 registered voters.

Several contentious issues have dominated this electoral cycle.

A controversial land lease has emerged as a central campaign flashpoint, with the government granting a Qatari company a 70-year agreement to build a luxury resort on Assumption Island for $20m.

Environmental groups filed a legal challenge to halt the project, arguing it threatens a fragile ecosystem near the UNESCO-protected Aldabra atoll, home to 400 unique species.

Herminie has pledged to cancel the hotel development if elected, while also promising to lower the retirement age and reduce public transport costs. Ramkalawan, the incumbent, has defended the Qatar deal as a necessary investment for the tourism-dependent economy.

Drug addiction has also dominated voter concerns. The country faces one of the world’s highest rates of heroin use, with an estimated 10 percent of working-age residents struggling with addiction. Critics say both candidates failed to adequately address the crisis during their time in government.

Ramkalawan, a former Anglican priest, became the first opposition leader to win the presidency in 2020, ending United Seychelles’ 43-year hold on power. His opponent Herminie served as parliamentary speaker and previously chaired the national drug prevention agency.

The victor will lead Africa’s smallest and wealthiest nation in per capita terms through mounting challenges including climate vulnerability and protecting sovereignty amid competing international interests.