risk

The U.S. Air Force has confirmed it has come up with a new set of requirements as it continues to look for a successor to its hard-working MQ-9 Reaper fleet. In contrast to the Reaper, the replacement aircraft is likely to be more flexible in terms of mission spectrum. At the same time, the service wants to use new manufacturing technologies to ensure that it can be built at scale and at a lower price point than the MQ-9. This would allow it to be bought in larger numbers and risked more freely in contested environments.

All this reflects the continued high utility placed on the MQ-9 fleet, as well as its considerable loss rates sustained against mid-tier and lower-tier adversaries. It also points away from filling the MQ-9’s role with a far more exquisite, costly, but more survivable asset, which seemed to have been the direction the Air Force was heading, at least in part, for many years now. With this in mind, this new direction appears to accept that many losses will occur in future combat scenarios and embraces that reality to leverage quantity over quality for whatever eventually takes over from the MQ-9.

Testifying before a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday, Maj. Gen. Christopher Niemi, the acting head of Air Force Futures, said that a new requirements document for an MQ-9 replacement had been approved. Aviation Week was first to report the development.

The approval clears the path for the Air Force to begin a new acquisition process for an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) that will assume the MQ-9’s role. A medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) system, the Reaper is primarily used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and strike missions.

Niemi told the Senate Armed Services Committee that improvements in technology since the MQ-9 was developed mean the service now considers it possible for a new drone to be “more flexible,” leaning upon open architectures.

At the same time, modern production methods mean the new drone will be easier and cheaper to produce “in mass numbers,” Niemi said. The result should be a drone that the Air Force can “use in a more attritable way.”

Interestingly, within the Air Force, there has in recent years been a shift away from the term attritable — meaning inexpensive enough to be willing to lose on high-risk missions while being capable enough to be relevant for those missions — to “affordable mass.” This is something TWZ previously highlighted was already happening back in 2021.

This change came about as a way of helping define the kinds of advanced drones that the Air Force is planning to acquire in the coming years, reflecting that their capabilities will necessarily come at a cost that will make them less than “attritable.”

Last month, the Air Force published a market survey notice, requesting information from industry on a new attritable ISR drone.

This notice included some key performance parameters for the drone, including a range of up to 932 miles and a 20-hour endurance. The attritable nature of the drone was reflected in a requirement for it to fly 100 missions with a “low-to-medium acquisition” cost.

The basic Reaper can fly for more than 20 hours unarmed, or more than 12 hours with weapons. In the case of the MQ-9B version, with an extended wingspan, flight endurance can be increased to more than 40 hours.

“Operators desire low-cost, fast-to-field, fast-to-deploy airborne ISR mass to increase mission flexibility and mission surging,” the market survey notice added.

The process of figuring out what to replace the Reaper with has been ongoing for many years now. However, the latest effort is noteworthy for its emphasis on a lower-cost, more attritable platform.

Back in 2020, the Air Force published a request for information for a program dubbed MQ-Next, also seeking an MQ-9 successor. This was focused on ISR and strike capabilities, but also stated a desire for reduced operating costs and greater persistence, survivability, and range.

By 2021, the Air Force was concentrating more on a family of systems — the so-called Next-Generation Multi-Role Unmanned Aerial System Family of Systems (Next-Gen Multi-Role UAS FoS) — including a growing emphasis on low-observable (stealth) technologies. The same year, the service said it was seeking a replacement for the MQ-9 that could possibly include defensive counter-air capabilities to protect high-value manned aircraft, such as tankers, as well as potentially fly red air aggressor missions. Fast forward to today, and it’s clear that these higher-performance air-to-air focused missions could be taken over, at least in part, by the current Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. As a result, whatever replaces the MQ-9 is unlikely to have such broad requirements.

The Next-Gen Multi-Role UAS FoS included scope for platforms that could be survivable and reusable, or ones that would be attritable or expendable. This was not a single platform solution, either. It would likely need to include a mix of systems.

The 2021 document also stipulated that the MQ-9’s successor should be tailored for Great Power Competition, pointing to a drone ecosystem suitable for the kinds of highly contested environments that would be encountered during a conflict with a peer rival such as China or Russia. At the same time, the solution was also intended to fly missions in more permissive environments, like the MQ-9.

Around this same time, the Air Force also said it wanted to leverage advances in development and manufacturing, meaning that smaller numbers of manned aircraft could be produced quickly to meet dynamically evolving threats. This reflected the Air Force’s “Digital Century Series” that was in vogue at that time, and which led to talk about “throwaway” technology and essentially “disposable” aircraft. Some of this appears to have made it into these new requirements, which stipulate that the aircraft needs to be able to fly just 100 missions.

Meanwhile, the latest statements from the service describe a drone with increased flexibility achieved through open architecture, rather than building bespoke batches of drones for particular requirements. Previous statements from the service outlined an aspiration to have its new drone capable of accommodating rapidly reconfigurable payloads, something that open architecture would expedite.

Above all else, the MQ-9 successor will still have to operate in contested environments.

In his testimony yesterday, Niemi presented a vision of a new drone, the design of which would stress being attritable, rather than survivable.

The Pentagon has long worked on the basis that a future conflict with a peer rival, and especially with China in the Pacific, would see it facing highly robust anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) scenarios. With that in mind, previous Reaper replacement studies had suggested that low observability would need to be incorporated into the design.

The latest thinking seems to reject that, or at least reorient the program toward a lower-cost platform of the kind that the Air Force would be able to field in mass, as well as to absorb the anticipated attrition in a high-end conflict. This does not preclude this airframe from featuring low-observable elements. In fact, it most likely will. But those would be more aggressively balanced against cost.

Concerns over the MQ-9’s vulnerability to air defenses have been ongoing for years now, although usually the nuances of this issue are not portrayed accurately in the media. Regardless, many MQ-9s were lost over Yemen, against a bottom-tier force. The war with Iran earlier this year underlined both the great utility and vulnerabilities of the platform. At least 24 Air Force Reapers were destroyed during the war, but these aircraft were pushed deep into Iran, loitered there for hours on end, and did some of the most important air-to-ground strike and surveillance work during the air campaign. While the Air Force says it plans to “buy back” some of the losses from that conflict, that will come with a hefty price tag, something that the service will want to avoid with its next ISR/strike drone. Furthermore, production of the MQ-9A model has now ended in favor of the MQ-9B.

The assumption that the MQ-9 replacement will be acquired in significant numbers is also noteworthy in terms of the current Air Force Reaper fleet, which includes more than 130 MQ-9As, according to Aviation Week.

What appears to be missing at this stage, or at least obscured, is an acquisition strategy for the new drones. As well as the aerial platforms, the MQ-9 successor will require suitable new ground control systems, sensors, and data exploitation technologies, all of which are compatible with open-architecture standards. These systems will also have to leverage the latest technologies to allow the drones to be more effective and more survivable over the battlefield.

Since MQ-Next, the U.S. drone landscape has changed considerably in terms of manufacturers. A few years ago, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and General Atomics would have been seen as the front-runners for the MQ-9 replacement. Now, there are more contenders, often with a founding focus on rapidly scaling up production at low cost. Still, these firms have much to prove, especially considering the risk in replacing an aircraft as important as the MQ-9. At the same time, in the more advanced drone space, the legacy defense “prime” contractors are also making major progress in leveraging new technologies to reduce production costs and migrating away from exquisite, very expensive drones as their default offerings.

Back in 2021, the Air Force was promoting a “Speed to Ramp” initiative for its MQ-Next, which would see the first iterations of this capability fielded before “the 2026/2027 timeframe.” Other solutions under the same effort would begin to be fielded “in the 2030 timeframe,” the Air Force said.

While the latter timeline might still be somewhat achievable, it will require a considerable effort and investment and, not least, the firming up of the requirements for exactly what the Air Force wants its MQ-9 replacement to look like.

What we do know is that, while the Reaper’s replacement might not be as survivable as once envisioned, it will certainly be tailored to the increasingly harsh realities of a conflict against an advanced peer-state adversary. 

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Author Oliver Eagleton says British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is fighting for his job because he tried to turn the Labour Party into the ‘new Conservative Party’ and ‘occupy that centre ground’. Dozens of lawmakers are calling for Starmer’s resignation after devastating local elections.

easyJet passengers are being warned they could face serious consequences if they don’t completely switch off certain electronic devices

Holidaymakers travelling with easyJet this summer are being warned that they could unknowingly fall foul of strict cabin rules unless they fully switch off a commonly used electronic device before stepping on board. The trouble is that many passengers only discover the rule once they’ve already reached the airport or are on the verge of boarding, where last-minute slip-ups could spell serious problems.

According to EasyJet, the warning relates to e-cigarettes and vaping devices, which must be carried in hand luggage only and are strictly forbidden from being stowed in hold baggage under any circumstances. The airline’s official policy states: “All electronic cigarettes and vaping devices must be carried in the cabin, re-charging is strictly prohibited and the device must be completely switched off.”

It also advises passengers to keep their devices on their person where they can be kept an eye on throughout the flight, reducing the risk of accidental activation. These rules are in place due to concerns over lithium-ion batteries, which are used to power vaping devices and are well known for posing a fire risk if they become damaged or overheat.

The UK Civil Aviation Authority categorises lithium batteries as a significant safety risk in aviation due to their potential for ‘thermal runaway’, producing intense heat and flames that are notoriously difficult to extinguish in confined spaces. The International Air Transport Association has highlighted a worldwide rise in lithium battery-related incidents, which has gone hand in hand with the increasing prevalence of portable electronic devices, prompting airlines across the globe to tighten their rules considerably.

EasyJet also warns that passengers must take precautions to prevent their vaping devices from being switched on accidentally during flights, including ensuring they are fully powered down before boarding. The airline stipulates that travellers may carry no more than two spare batteries in their hand luggage, and that these must be properly protected to prevent them from coming into contact with metal objects.

Under UK aviation rules, vaping devices must be kept in hand luggage at all times. Official government guidance states that e-cigarettes are strictly prohibited from hold baggage.

Industry experts point out that confusion often arises because rules can vary between airlines and destinations, which can leave passengers unknowingly packing the wrong items before they even reach airport security. Aviation safety specialists also warn that using or charging vaping devices while on board flights is strictly prohibited by all major airlines, with penalties ranging from confiscation to fines or even travel bans in severe cases.

As summer travel demand picks up, holidaymakers are being urged to check airline regulations before they set off to avoid delays, confiscations, or being refused entry at the boarding gate.

May 7 (UPI) — As Washington and Hanoi enter a dense stretch of trade diplomacy, the coming weeks will test whether one of the Indo-Pacific’s most pragmatic economic partnerships can sustain its momentum or become entangled in the very frictions it has worked to avoid.

A series of meetings — including Section 301 hearings on industrial capacity from Tuesday to Friday this week, forced labor discussions April 28 to May 1 and bilateral consultations next Monday and Tuesday, arrives at a pivotal juncture.

They will help determine whether the United States and Vietnam can preserve a trade relationship that has become central to supply chain resilience, U.S. business interests and Vietnam’s continued economic ascent.

At its core, the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership is grounded not in diplomacy alone, but also in economic logic.

Partnership built on complementarity

Over the past decade, Vietnam has emerged as one of the fastest-growing U.S. trading partners, driven by a convergence of structural interests. As American firms diversify production beyond China, Vietnam has become a preferred destination, offering cost competitiveness, political stability and deepening integration into global value chains.

U.S. data show Vietnam ran a $123.5 billion trade surplus with the United States last year — the fourth-largest imbalance after China, the European Union and Mexico. It is a figure that has drawn increasing scrutiny in Washington even as it reflects the depth of bilateral trade integration.

From electronics to apparel and consumer goods, Vietnam-based production is often embedded within supply chains designed and financed by U.S. and allied firms. American companies benefit from lower production costs and diversified risk, while Vietnamese exports sustain growth and employment at home.

Disrupting this ecosystem through blunt trade measures risks undermining the very businesses Washington seeks to protect.

Hanoi has consistently signaled a willingness to engage. It has approached trade tensions not with confrontation, but with negotiation — a posture that stands in contrast to more adversarial economic relationships. The upcoming consultations should reinforce that cooperative trajectory, not derail it.

Rethinking “overcapacity”

The debate over “overcapacity” has become a central issue in U.S. trade discussions, with concerns that the term is being applied broadly across different economic models.

In Vietnam’s case, officials and industry observers note that production growth is largely driven by market-based investment and global supply chain shifts rather than state-directed industrial surpluses.

“Vietnam’s overcapacity is much different from China’s,” said Murray Hiebert, head of research for Bower Group Asia. “China’s factories are producing huge surpluses that it dumps onto the world’s markets below market prices. Instead, Vietnam relies on foreign investment companies to produce for export.”

He noted that Vietnam’s export engine is overwhelmingly foreign-driven, with multinational firms, particularly from the United States and South Korea, accounting for roughly 80% of outbound shipments, while domestic producers contribute only about one-fifth.

“Vietnam’s economy is largely a manufacturing platform for foreign companies,” Hiebert said. “U.S. policymakers need to understand Vietnam did not create overcapacity by subsidizing manufacturing, but by courting foreign investors who used Vietnam as a low-cost base to serve global markets.”

Vietnam’s manufacturing expansion has been shaped by global supply chain realignment, accelerated by U.S.-China trade tensions and pandemic-era disruptions, rather than by state-led efforts to flood international markets. Many of the factories operating in Vietnam were relocated or expanded by multinational firms seeking to maintain access to U.S. consumers.

To conflate this model with subsidy-driven overproduction risks misdiagnosing the issue and penalizing a partner that has facilitated, rather than distorted, market outcomes.

Labor reforms and supply chain progress

Concerns over labor practices and supply chain integrity remain part of the policy conversation, particularly in the context of ongoing forced labor discussions. But these concerns should be weighed against Vietnam’s steady, if incremental, progress.

In recent years, Hanoi has undertaken significant labor reforms aligned with the International Labor Organization, including updates to its labor code, expanded worker representation rights and enhanced compliance mechanisms.

Vietnam has also prioritized traceability and transparency across key export sectors. From fisheries to manufacturing, authorities have invested in monitoring systems, strengthened inspections and improved regulatory oversight — steps aimed at meeting the expectations of international partners and markets.

This is an evolving process, not a completed one. But the trajectory is clear: Vietnam is moving toward higher standards, not retreating from them.

The case for market economy recognition

Another unresolved issue, Vietnam’s designation as a non-market economy under U.S. trade law, has become increasingly difficult to justify.

Vietnam operates within the framework of the World Trade Organization and has been recognized as a market economy by more than 70 countries. Its private sector has expanded rapidly, its regulatory environment continues to evolve and its integration into global markets is deepening.

Maintaining Vietnam’s current non-market economy designation under U.S. trade law has raised concerns among policymakers and business groups, who say it could affect the application of trade remedies and investor confidence. The issue comes as Washington seeks to expand economic partnerships across the Indo-Pacific.

Avoiding unintended consequences

Intellectual property has emerged as a new point of tension in U.S.-Vietnam trade relations. Ambassador Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, has designated Vietnam as a “Priority Foreign Country” — its most serious classification — in its latest intellectual property rights report, opening the door to a potential Section 301 investigation within 30 days.

The designation, the first of its kind in more than a decade, reflects ongoing U.S. concerns over Vietnam’s intellectual property protections and could affect the trajectory of current trade negotiations.

Sweeping trade measures designed to address structural concerns could disrupt supply chains, raise costs for American businesses and consumers, and weaken a partnership that has delivered measurable benefits. In an already fragile global economy, such outcomes would be counterproductive.

Vietnam’s own incentives align with stability. Its growth depends on open markets, foreign investment and compliance with international standards. That alignment should be viewed as a strategic asset.

Washington should avoid applying a China-centric lens to Vietnam’s trade profile, said Dan Harris, a partner at the law firm Harris Sliwoski. Treating Vietnam as an “overcapacity” case without clear evidence risks penalizing U.S. firms that relocated production there in line with Washington’s own push to reduce reliance on China and strengthen supply chain resilience.

“We will end up punishing the companies that did what we asked,” Harris warned.

He added that the broader strategic context matters: Vietnam’s long history of conflict and mistrust with China sets it apart from Beijing, even as it emerges as an increasingly important U.S. partner in the Indo-Pacific.

But the implications of Washington’s trade posture toward Hanoi extend far beyond economics. Vietnam’s export-driven growth, fueled primarily by multinational investment rather than state subsidies, has quietly elevated the country into a strategic linchpin in the Indo-Pacific.

A stable and prosperous Vietnam not only supports supply chain diversification, but also reinforces the rules-based order in the South China Sea.

Economic resilience in Vietnam is not peripheral to U.S. strategy. It is foundational to maintaining balance in contested Indo-Pacific waters. Trade policy cannot be divorced from strategic reality: A weakened Vietnamese economy would do more than disrupt production flows. It could undercut one of the region’s most important counterweights to China’s expanding maritime presence.

Balancing trade and security alignments

Rising risks of policy missteps could carry strategic costs. Analysts warn that overly punitive U.S. trade measures, particularly those misreading Vietnam’s market-driven model, may push Hanoi toward alternative economic alignments, reshaping regional supply chains and weakening U.S. influence in an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific.

U.S. policymakers are weighing more targeted, cooperative measures in managing trade concerns with Vietnam, including a bilateral supply chain monitoring mechanism, expanded data-sharing on industrial capacity and the potential creation of a standing U.S.-Vietnam trade and standards working group.

The approach aims to address regulatory and transparency issues while maintaining stability in the broader economic partnership.

The challenge for Washington is alignment – translating economic logic into strategic necessity. That means recognizing Vietnam not as a trade problem to be managed, but rather as a partner whose economic trajectory is increasingly central to the region’s stability and security.

Beyond trade flows and investment figures, the U.S.-Vietnam economic relationship carries broader strategic significance. It reinforces a rules-based framework in the Indo-Pacific and supports cooperation across sectors ranging from technology to maritime security.

Any escalation in trade tensions between the United States and Vietnam could disrupt commercial ties and place broader strategic cooperation at risk, as both sides seek to sustain recent gains in economic and security engagement.

James Borton is a non-resident senior fellow at Johns Hopkins SAIS Foreign Policy Institute and the author of Harvesting the Waves: How Blue Parks Shape Policy, Politics, and Peacebuilding in the South China Sea. Borton is the editor-in-chief of the South China Sea NewsWire. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

The extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has created what Goldman Sachs describes as “extreme tightness” in Europe’s jet fuel supply, and the UK is seen as particularly vulnerable

Britain is at risk of rationing jet fuel due to shortages stemming from the Iran conflict, an expert has claimed.

With supplies potentially dropping to “critically low levels”, concern has grown for Europe’s jet fuel market and the consequences this will have on travel this summer. Some airlines, such as KLM and Lufthansa, have already cancelled flights due to fears about fuel.

Now, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks, has said the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created “extreme tightness” in the market and the UK is especially exposed due to its limited stockpiles, heavy reliance on imports, and constrained refining capacity. It means the prospect of rationing is believed to being considered to help sustain the travel sector.

Jet fuel prices have doubled since the war began on February 28, prompting bleak warnings from Keir Starmer that travellers may need to rethink their holiday plans.

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Goldman Sachs said in a research note: “The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer. As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.”

The Gulf region supplies around one-fifth of globally traded fuel, and with Europe heavily dependent on those flows, airlines are now competing for alternative sources — driving prices even higher. According to The Times, Goldman Sachs noted that the UK, as Europe’s largest net importer of jet fuel, lacks strategic reserves and relies primarily on commercial inventories as a buffer. Those levels, particularly in Britain, could fall dangerously low, increasing the likelihood of rationing.

Any sustained shortage would likely force airlines to cancel or consolidate flights while pushing ticket prices upward. Fuel accounts for as much as a quarter of airline operating costs. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, has already indicated it will raise fares to offset higher fuel expenses, acknowledging it is “not immune” to ongoing volatility despite hedging strategies.

Air France expects its jet fuel bill to rise by $2.4billion (£1.77million) this year, while American Airlines anticipates an increase of more than $4billion (£2.96million) — costs that are expected to translate into higher fares and reduced perks for passengers.

Although UK ministers have suggested supplies can be sourced from elsewhere, industry figures are less optimistic. Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said airlines are “desperately” looking for flights to cancel and could begin doing so within weeks.

Fuel suppliers have also warned that the UK has the “most limited visibility” in Europe when it comes to jet fuel supply, largely because of its dependence on Middle Eastern imports.

The European Commission said it would issue guidance to airlines this week, with a spokesperson noting that uncertainty remains high and preparations are being made for multiple scenarios.

Analysts also pointed to the UK’s reduced refining capacity following the closure of the Grangemouth refinery — Scotland’s only oil refinery — last April. Concerns had also surrounded the future of the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, though its new owner, Phillips 66, said the recent acquisition should help stabilise supply.

A report from the Tony Blair Institute argued that Europe’s climate-focused energy policies have contributed to higher prices — two to three times those of competitors — and increased dependence on imports.

Fuel suppliers said May demand should remain manageable but warned that disruptions could begin by mid-to-late June if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is set to ‘level with’ the public as jet fuel shortages continue to affect airlines

British holidaymakers are set to be warned by ministers to prepare for potential flight cancellations. The anticipated warning follows concerns from airline bosses about possible jet fuel supply shortages affecting the UK from as early as next month.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is reportedly preparing to “level with” the public this weekend about the likelihood of disruption and cancellations this summer. She is also expected to outline contingency measures designed to minimise the fallout – as six tourist hotspots have reportedly been identified as being at risk of cancellations.

Government officials are drawing up plans to advise against long-haul travel to specific destinations should tensions in Iran escalate dramatically. Countries including Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Myanmar and Ethiopia could be affected, sources told the Times.

Ministers are also set to highlight the “positives” of staycations as anxiety mounts over overseas bookings. A number of major European carriers have recently sounded the alarm about looming jet fuel shortages in the coming weeks, citing disruption to their primary supply route through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to UKOilWatch, Britain currently holds just 34 days’ worth of jet fuel reserves. Roughly three-quarters of Europe’s jet fuel originates from the Middle East and passes through the Strait of Hormuz off Iran. Heathrow Airport confirmed on Wednesday that it anticipates passenger figures for the remainder of the year will be impacted by Middle Eastern tensions.

Lufthansa Group plans to axe 20,000 flights over the next six months in a bid to conserve fuel. Meanwhile, other carriers including Virgin Atlantic have introduced a fuel surcharge, and British Airways has cautioned passengers about potential “pricing adjustments” to their tickets.

Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, also suggested this week that Brits might need to reconsider “where they go on holiday”. Government ministers insist the UK isn’t currently facing jet fuel shortages, as alternative supply sources remain available.

Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, revealed to The Times that competitors are “desperately” hunting for flights to axe, with cancellations expected to begin within weeks. According to the newspaper, leading fuel suppliers are informing airlines that the UK has the “most limited visibility” across Europe regarding jet fuel availability, largely due to its heavy dependence on Middle Eastern imports.

These suppliers reportedly anticipate May will be manageable. Yet they warn that “mid to late June as the potential start of disruptions” if the Strait of Hormuz near Iran remains closed.

Ryanair and Jet2 reassure passengers

O’Leary explained: “There is a modest improvement in the supply situation through to the end of May, early June, but then nobody would give us any undertakings what happens in mid-June or thereafter.”

He confirmed Ryanair wouldn’t be slashing flights. However, he predicted that other prominent European carriers more “exposed” to soaring costs would likely begin scrapping routes, saying: “They are all desperately trying to take out marginal flights or any growth because they don’t have the fuel for it.

“We were worried there would be disruption to around 10 per cent of our flights but some of those worries have eased because other European airlines have taken out lots of capacity.” It comes as Jet2 has revealed that holidaymakers are increasingly making last-minute bookings following the outbreak of the Iran war, with growing concerns about the conflict’s impact and potential disruptions to jet fuel supplies.

The company reported that summer passenger bookings are currently up 6.2%, driven by growth in both its airline and package holiday operations. However, highlighting rising unease amongst travellers, it noted that the “booking profile has become increasingly close to departure” as a result of the Middle East conflict.

Jet2 confirmed it has strong protection against fuel cost increases triggered by the Iran war for the crucial summer period. It said it is “maintaining frequent dialogue with our fuel suppliers and airport partners on fuel supply”.

British refineries have meanwhile been instructed to maximise jet fuel production as part of government contingency measures amid concerns that the Iran war could lead to aircraft being grounded. Energy minister Michael Shanks said the government is closely monitoring UK jet fuel stocks and liaising with airlines, airports, fuel suppliers and international partners.

“UK airlines typically buy fuel months in advance, and aviation fuel suppliers hold bunkered stocks. The UK imports jet fuel supplies from a range of countries not reliant on the strait, including the United States,” Shanks stated in a ministerial announcement. “Airlines UK have stated that ‘UK airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.’ The government continues to work with partners to monitor and mitigate potential disruptions,” Shanks added.

BRIAN May has been banned from planting daffodils on his village green after the local council said they could pose a safety risk.

The former Queen rocker planned to donate bulbs for his village green in Elstead, Surrey, but the local council have blocked him.

Elstead parish council said the yellow flowers would obstruct the line of sight of nearby traffic.

The authority added that the daffodils would prevent locals crossing the green and disrupt accessibility.

The 78-year-old’s request was therefore rejected as the council said it had “a responsibility to balance community initiatives with safety”.

Speaking to the Farnham Herald, Sir Brian said: “We’re struggling to imagine how 18-inch stalks could [obstruct] anyone’s view, especially when the green is normally surrounded by parked vehicles including a 7ft-high ice cream van.”

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The guitarist hoped the village green would be another success after he previously planted 3,000 bulbs on the green outside St James’s Church.

Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative MP for Godalming and Ash praised “Elstead’s most famous resident Sir Brian May and his brilliant team of planters for supplying and planting the stunning daffodils for Elstead green”.

The council countered that the village green and the church green were “two very different areas”.

It added that the church green was “more amenable to daffodil planting”.

Jenny Littledale, a local resident, said: “How sad that something so lovely has been turned down for such a ridiculous reason.”

Jenny Else, another Elstead resident and former Waverley borough councillor, said the locals wishes hadn’t been considered.

She continued: “Perhaps a vote should have been taken. There has been so much interest in the proposal.”

Ms Else said that when she had seen a sketch of the proposed area for the flowers, she didn’t think sight lines were under threat.

“There is a large area for any community gatherings during the daffodil season and good pedestrian access,” she added.

Sir Brian shared the news on a blog post, he wrote: “I’ve been quite thrilled to get so many happy comments from the village about this year’s display.

“Probably the best part of it all has been the friends I’ve made here in Elstead.

“And of course thanks to our parish council for giving me the permission to donate spring beauty to our community!

“We were all hoping to adorn the main village green for next spring… But sadly the parish council last night rejected my plan.”

A council spokesperson said: “Elstead parish council welcomes and proactively supports community planting and is extremely grateful to the volunteers who put time and care into projects like this.

“The parish council has a duty to balance the practical usage of our green along with the views of our residents.

“The main village green is used in several ways throughout the year. It hosts key community events, is crossed regularly on foot and is valued by some as an open space.

“As a council, we have said that we very much welcome further discussion about these options and thank everyone involved for their enthusiasm and ideas.”

The spokesman told The Telegraph that the issue had been “portrayed in one way when it’s not actually that at all”. The negative response to the ruling got “out of hand” they added.

Iran has raised concerns about the vulnerability of submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz, which are crucial for the region’s digital economy. This narrow waterway, known for its importance in global oil shipments, also supports several fibre-optic cables connecting countries from India and Southeast Asia to Europe via the Gulf states and Egypt.

Submarine cables are essential for transmitting data and power, carrying about 99% of the world’s internet traffic. They play a significant role in telecommunications, cloud services, and online communication. Damage to these cables can lead to internet slowdowns, outages, disrupted e-commerce, and delayed financial transactions, causing economic consequences, according to analyst Masha Kotkin.

Gulf countries, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have invested billions into artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure to reduce dependence on oil, with their national AI companies relying heavily on undersea cables for data transfer. Key submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz include the Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE-1), the FALCON network, and the Gulf Bridge International Cable System, with additional infrastructures being built.

Despite the growth in submarine cable length, faults have remained stable at around 150–200 incidents yearly, largely due to human activities like fishing and anchor dragging, with state-sponsored sabotage being a potential risk. Other threats include undersea currents, earthquakes, and typhoons. To mitigate these risks, the industry has measures such as burying cables and selecting safer routes.

The ongoing Iran war has caused significant disruption to energy supply and regional infrastructure, though subsea cables have not yet suffered damage. However, military operations increase the risk of unintentional damage from ships inadvertently impacting cables. Historical incidents, like one in 2024, highlight these risks.

Repairing damaged cables in conflict areas presents challenges, including obtaining permits and addressing the dangers of remaining fighting or mines. Once conflicts end, another challenge lies in re-evaluating the sea floor to ensure the cables’ safety.

If subsea cables are damaged, there are alternatives like land-based links, but experts warn that satellite systems cannot replace them due to limited capacity and higher costs. Low-Earth-orbit networks like Starlink are not a scalable solution for millions of users at present.

with information from Reuters

People could find themselves unable to travel this summer if they don’t spot these problems

Aside from your plane ticket, your passport is one of the most important documents you need to travel. But Brits need to make sure their passport’s appearance doesn’t put an end to holidays before they even start.

With fuel disruptions and other global events making the thought of holidays a bit stressful, people need to make sure their passports are valid and free of any additional issues that could prevent them from heading to their destination. These could seem minor, but airport security won’t take chances, and Brits could be out of pocket.

Usually, the main concern for people jetting off on holiday is ensuring they have enough valid months left on their passport. However, minor tears and water damage that seem like small issues may render a passport invalid in the eyes of border authorities – regardless of how long it has left to expire.

According to the GOV.UK website, you must replace a damaged passport immediately. This can typically take three weeks, but it can sometimes be longer, with waits of up to six weeks, so anyone with plans coming up soon should act fast.

What kind of damage will make a passport invalid?

The GOV.UK website lists all of the reasons that could render a passport invalid for travel. These include:

• when the personal details or observation page are unreadable
• laminate peeling or lifting away from the personal details page
• unreadable security details
• missing or detached pages
• where the front, back or personal details page has been cut
• damage or discolouration to any part of the passport caused, for example, by water/chemical/ink spills or tears/rips/bite marks

People who have the blue e-Passport may be found invalid for travel if the perforated passport numbers have been torn or the personal details page is torn, damaged, or cracked. People could also be rejected from passport checks if their passport has a chip or antenna that shows through the endpaper on the back cover of a burgundy e-Passport or the personal details page of a blue e-Passport

Damage that does not need an explanation and won’t render a passport invalid for travel includes:

• any damage that is not on the personal details or observation pages
• any visas, vignettes or immigration stamps are unaffected by the damage (Passport officers must be happy there are no security features or details missing)
• any damage or discolouration to the passport cover and blank visa pages is caused by water/chemical/ink spills/tears/rips/burning/bite marks/writing or drawings

To replace a damaged passport, Brits can apply online here to be processed as quickly as possible. It costs £102 for adults, and customers will need a digital photo and a credit/debit card. GOV.UK added: “You’ll need to ask someone to confirm your identity online if you’re replacing a lost or stolen passport.”

People with travel plans that are sooner than the typical three-week turnaround may apply for a fast-track service at a premium cost. This usually results in an appointment at the Passport Office within a week, with documents often being issued the next day.

This express service comes at an added cost compared to the normal wait time and process. It costs £192 for an adult passport (or £206 for a 54-page frequent traveller passport).

Passport holders have been urged to change a key phone setting before they arrive at airports to travel. Failing to do so could see them facing delays in queues

We all love jetting off abroad at this time of year, but sometimes making simple mistakes at the airport can lead to risking delays in queues. While many people worry about their clothing, and what they have packed in their cases, something they should actually be paying more attention to is their mobile phones.

Little you may know, using a certain setting can actually lead to people spending more time in queues at security, and delaying their travel journey. Nobody wants to have to face lengthy queues when they start their holiday so an expert has shared some key travel tips to help passport holders out.

It’s not the only advice of its kind to be shared recently either. Previously, tourists were also advised to take passport action before travelling to reduce the risk of problems at the airport.

You may not realise, but a dim screen is one of the most common reasons boarding passes fail to scan at the gate. Experts say a few simple phone tweaks before you leave home can save serious stress on travel day, and the changes take seconds to complete.

According to William Thackray, IT expert at AGT Computer Services, a dim screen is one of the most frequent and easily avoidable causes of delay at airport security and boarding gates.

He said: “Scanners need a clear, bright image to read a barcode or QR code reliably. In bright airport lighting, a screen that’s sitting at its default brightness – or that’s been dimmed to save battery – can cause a failed scan.

“It sounds trivial, but it holds up the queue and it’s completely avoidable.”

What you need to do

Before you leave the house, drag your screen brightness to maximum. On an iPhone, swipe down from the top right corner to access the Control Centre and pull the brightness slider to the top. For Android, swipe down from the top of the screen and do the same.

While you’re at it, William recommends a few other quick changes that can make the whole airport experience smoother. To begin, he said it’s a good idea to screenshot your boarding pass.

Don’t rely on an app that needs a signal or a Wi-Fi connection to load. A screenshot lives on your phone and opens instantly.

He said it’s also a good idea to turn off auto-lock. If your screen goes dark mid-queue, you’ll be unlocking your phone and re-opening your boarding pass with a line of people behind you.

Go to Settings > Display and bump your screen timeout up to at least two to three minutes before you travel. This could make a big difference.

You should also make sure your phone is fully charged. It sounds obvious, but some airports – especially when travelling to the US – can ask you to power up your device at security.

A dead phone can mean real delays, or worse, having your device taken for additional screening. William added: “None of these things take more than a minute to sort before you leave the house.

“But, on a busy travel day, that one minute of prep can be the difference between breezing through and being that person holding everyone up.”

A skincare expert has shared which beauty products are likely to cause problems at airport security due to hand luggage liquid rules – and how to avoid any hold-ups

With summer getaways fast approaching, countless holidaymakers are gearing up to travel overseas. As skincare continues to surge in popularity, many will be packing their creams and serums – yet skincare specialists are cautioning that transporting these products can prove more complicated than anticipated.

Experts at Landys Chemist have outlined the key ways skincare items can cause issues at airport security.

Skincare specialist Rhysa Phommachanh explained: “Many travellers are now packing full skincare routines in their hand luggage, but it can be confusing knowing which products are allowed. As a general rule, if a product can be spread, rubbed, or sprayed, it will usually fall under airport liquid restrictions.”

For instance, numerous skincare products nowadays appear as jellies, balms and sticks.

All of these are classified as liquids by airport security, as are sheet masks and eye patches.

Failing to adhere to airport security regulations could result in travel disruptions or having your belongings seized.

To conserve luggage space, travellers sometimes transfer larger items into smaller containers to meet requirements.

Nevertheless, these unidentified containers can prompt queries at security and trigger manual inspections, which can prove time-consuming.

It’s also probable that any pressurised containers such as facial mists, setting sprays or spray sunscreens will require manual examination and slow down security lines.

It is crucial to familiarise yourself with the regulations at each airport you pass through, as updated liquid rules are gradually being introduced across the country.

Restrictions may vary from one airport to another, so ensure you are fully aware of the specific guidelines before you board your flight.

When it comes to skincare, a minimalist approach often yields the best results.

As reported by the Express, Rhysa said: “A more simplified approach tends to work best for long-haul travel.

“Basic essentials such as lip balm, a lightweight moisturiser, or a facial mist are usually more than enough to maintain hydration without overwhelming the skin barrier.”

HOLIDAYS are at extreme risk of being cancelled this summer, experts have warned.

The ongoing war in Iran has already resulted in thousands of flights being cancelled around the world, due to jet fuel prices and shortages.

Ceasefire talks between the US and Iran are yet to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, after a previous ceasefire lasted just hours.

While UK airlines are yet to see any cancellations, Dan Jorgensen, the EU energy commissioner, said it was “very likely” holidays will be affected, according to Sky News.

This includes both cancelled flights and more expensive costs, he said, as Europe is in a “serious crisis”.

He explained: “Even if we do everything we can do, if the jet fuel is not there, then it’s not there.”

PLANE EXPLAIN

Jet2, TUI, BA, Virgin, Ryanair & easyJet – UK airlines on the fuel crisis

GOING UP

Flights are now costing families HUNDREDS extra due to ongoing Iran war

“It is primarily a crisis of prices and not yet a crisis of supply, but unfortunately we cannot be sure to prevent a crisis of supply, especially on jet fuel in the future, if the crisis continues.”

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency warned that supply issues could hit Europe in the next five to six weeks.

ACI Europe backed this up, saying: “If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality.”

Mr Jorgensen added that even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow, the “price crisis will still last for quite some time”.

It could even be years, he warned, to get down to price levels seen before the crisis.

UK airlines are yet to be affected by the fuel crisis, as many have ‘hedged’ fuel, meaning paying a set fee.

But Airlines UK, which represents a number of carriers, including BA, Virgin, easyJet, Jet2 and Ryanair, are now calling on the government for support to protect flights and holidays.

This would include temporary use of fuel type Jet A (not currently allowed in the UK) as well as relaxing the strict airport slot rules that would see airlines lose them if they don’t operate flights.

Easing night flight bans and “relieving the burden of Air Passenger Duty” have also been put forward.

A huge number of airlines have already cancelled flights in response to fears of jet fuel running out.

This includes:

• Lufthansa – 20,000 cancelled up to September
• United – around 250 a month cancelled
• Air New Zealand – around 1,000 cancelled
• Scandinavian Airlines – around 1,000 cancelled
• KLM – 160 cancelled
• Cathay Pacific – two per cent of flights up to June 30

Some flights routes have been axed entirely – this includes Norse Airways, London-Los Angeles route.

And flights and holidays have already gone up in price in recent months.

The Transport & Environment (T&E) said in a statement this week that long-haul flights are up to £77 more expensive – working out to more than £300 per family.

And easyJet warned people to book holidays sooner rather than later to avoid more price hikes.

For anyone worrying about their holiday, families are better to book package holidays rather than separate flight and hotels, as most packages offer ATOL protection (meaning you will get your money back if your trip is cancelled).

It is also worth checking your travel insurance, although most policies do not cover anything related to war.

There’s a simple passport and booking mistake that could see holidaymakers pay up to an extra £160 per passenger, just to correct it, or be denied boarding at the airport

An easy passport mistake could see holidaymakers denied boarding at the airport or charged a fee.

Jetting off abroad is always exciting, but there are a few key pre-planning checks everyone should make to ensure a smooth, safe journey. From ensuring the passport is in date, securing valid travel insurance, checking any travel advice on the Foreign Office website, to understanding the country’s entry requirements and the European Union’s (EU) new Entry/Exit System (EES).

Then comes the fun part: booking a luxurious hotel or resort, planning a desirable itinerary, finding the best flights, and heading to the airport. Yet, amid the anticipation, there’s a simple mistake with passports and flight bookings that could cause major disruption to anyone’s travel plans, and it’s easily avoidable.

READ MORE: Jet2 issues Spain warning over four popular destinationsREAD MORE: All holidays cancelled with no refunds as major UK travel company goes bust

Gavin Lapidus, Company Director at eShores, a UK-based travel agent, warned that a traveller’s name on a passport must match the name on their booking. This can be an issue for shortened or nicknames, name changes, including for those who are married, and any spelling mistakes.

If the name on their booking does not match the passport, holidaymakers could “be denied boarding, experience delays at security or check‑in, or be charged a fee to correct the name”, Gavin exclusively told the Mirror. “Airline policies vary, so it’s important to triple‑check name details before booking.”

The travel expert further advised: “Travellers should never use shortened names, nicknames, or aliases when booking flights. For example, booking under ‘Bob’ instead of ‘Robert’ can result in being denied boarding if it doesn’t match the passport exactly. Always use your full legal name as it appears on your passport to avoid delays or additional fees.”

Gavin also warned about the cost of correcting a spelling mistake. “Minor spelling errors can sometimes be corrected, often for a fee. However, full name changes are usually not allowed,” he explained.

“If you spot an error, contact your airline as soon as possible, as acting quickly improves your chances of having it fixed. Be prepared to show valid identification and expect potential charges.”

For easyJet passengers, they can amend their title or correct spelling mistakes via the airline’s website or mobile app free of charge. However, if anyone needs to change the name on the flight booking, easyJet will charge £60 per passenger per flight when amended online, or £65 with the customer service team.

Meanwhile, Ryanair will charge £115 per passenger for a name change when made online, or £160 through an agent. For Jet2, if a name change is made 15 days before the departure date, it will cost £50, but 14 days or less will set a passenger back £150.

For Brits who are married but have not yet changed their maiden name on their passport, Gavin further advised: “If a traveller has recently married, the name on the booking must still match the name shown on the passport. There is no legal obligation to change your surname immediately after marriage.

“If your passport is still in your maiden name, you can continue to travel using it until it expires, as long as your flight booking is made in the same name. You can update your passport at any time using your marriage certificate.”

Do you have a travel story to share? Email webtravel@reachplc.com

The airline responded to a passenger who asked for an update on upcoming flights

TUI has shared a message to passengers worried about possible ‘fuel shortages’. The travel company issued advice on social media, responding to a customer with concerns.

The update comes as experts have warned Europe could face jet fuel shortages if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened in the coming weeks. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe, the trade body for European airports, previously said: “At this stage, we understand that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.

“The fact that we are entering the peak summer season… is only adding to those concerns.” On Thursday, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Europe has “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left”.

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has also said disruption could begin in May. He previously told Sky News: “Fuel suppliers are constantly looking at the market.

“We don’t expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and we hope the war will finish sooner than that and the risk to supply will be eliminated.”

In response to the developments, a TUI passenger contacted the airline on X to ask if it could share an update for any flights booked after May 1. The social media user wrote: “TUIUK, with the reported jet fuel shortages, are you expecting holidays from May 1st to be affected?”

Replying to the message on April 16, a customer service team member answered on behalf of the airline. She wrote: “Hey, we’re closely monitoring the developing situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on global aviation fuel supplies.

“At present, we’re not anticipating any immediate disruption to our flight schedules or holiday programmes from fuel shortages.”

Other airlines have faced similar questions from passengers. In an X post shared with easyJet Holidays last week, a customer asked: “How concerned should we be that, given the potential aviation fuel shortages from end May, that our July flights Gatwick Bordeaux will be cancelled? Do you have surety of supply from Canada for example?”

In a response on April 10, an employee told the passenger they would be notified if any changes were made to the booking. easyJet Holidays said: “Hi there, thanks for reaching out. We do appreciate your concerns.

“Please be assured, we are monitoring the situation closely and if there were to be any changes to your booking at all, our dedicated pre-travel team would be in touch to advise on your options.”

British travellers planning trips abroad must check their passports at least three weeks before departure

Brits heading abroad should carefully check their passports at least three weeks before they travel. Missing certain critical problems could land you with a £239 bill.

Travellers must make sure their passports are valid and in good condition before they set foot on a plane. Any problems could see you turned away at the gate.

To sort this out, your passport will need to be replaced straight away, and putting this off could prove costly as standard passport renewals can take up to three weeks.

Following a price rise earlier this month, a standard passport will set you back £102. However, if you’ve left a passport problem until just days before your trip, you’ll be forced to shell out £239.50 for the one-day express service.

GOV.UK warns: “If your passport is damaged you must replace it. You may not be able to travel with it.”

The HM Passport Office will consider a passport damaged if:

You cannot read any of your details

• Any of the pages are torn, cut or missing
• There are holes, cuts or tears in the cover
• The cover is detaching
• There are stains on the pages (for example, ink or water damage)

Regarding your passport’s expiry date, the requirements will differ depending on where you’re headed. Some countries insist on at least six months remaining on your passport upon arrival, while others only require three.

For a full breakdown of passport requirements by country, visit the Government website here.

Applying for a passport online

To apply online, head to the Government website here. Key requirements include a digital photograph, a valid payment method (credit or debit card), and your existing passport if you’re renewing.

Furthermore, applicants must supply proof of their identity and citizenship. The application fee for adults stands at £102, while children’s passports are priced at £66.50.

For anyone requiring assistance with the online application, local Post Office branches provide support services. Their staff are able to:

• Take your digital photo
• Help with completing the online application

Be mindful that this service carries an extra charge.

Postal applications

Paper passport applications are available from your local Post Office. Keep in mind that postal applications generally take longer to process than online ones.

They’re also more expensive than online applications, setting you back £115.50. You’ll be required to submit a completed application form alongside your supporting documents, two photographs, and the relevant fee.

Post Office staff can assist in making sure your form is properly completed – though you’ll need to supply your own photos. Payment can be made using cash, debit or credit cards.

Fast-track applications

If the standard three-week processing period is cutting it too close with your holiday plans, several quicker options are available for securing a passport. According to the Government website: “You can pay to get a passport urgently if you think the standard service will take too long.”

To take advantage of these fast-track services, you’ll need to secure an appointment at a passport office:

• The same-day premium service carries a charge of £239.50 (or £253.50 for the 54-page frequent traveller passport)
• The one-week express service costs £192 for an adult passport (or £206 for the 54-page frequent traveller passport), and £156.50 for a child’s passport (or £170.50 for the 54-page version)

For further information, visit the Government website here.