retaliation

A Russian Shahed kamikaze drone strike on a ship in the port of Chornomorsk was in retaliation for a recent spate of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea, the Ambrey maritime security firm tells us. The attack on the Turkish-owned CENK-T roll-on, roll-off cargo ship comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned he would “cut Ukraine off from the sea” in response to Ukraine’s stepped-up campaign against Russian commercial shipping. 

As we have previously reported, Ukraine carried out three attacks on Russian-connected oil tankers in the Black Sea in late November and early December. Reports emerged on Wednesday that they carried out a fourth one, which you can read more about later in this story.

“This attack was the first retaliation,” Joshua Hutchinson, a former Royal Marine commando now serving as the company’s Managing Director of Risk and Intelligence, told us Friday afternoon.

Video emerging on social media showed several angles of the attack. One showed the Shahed flying over the port of Chornomorsk before the CENK-T‘s bow became engulfed in flames.

Early reports on this incident from both Ambrey and Russian media claimed Russia used an Iskander-M ballistic missile to carry out the attack, but the video clearly shows otherwise. While it’s possible another strike occurred using a ballistic missile, we have seen no evidence of it at this time.

A separate video showed different views of the 606-foot-long Panamanian-flagged vessel in flames following the strike. One view appeared to be across the harbor, while another was a closer view, dockside, with the ship burning and people running from the scene. The strike injured at least one person, according to Ambrey.

In addition to the CENK-T being hit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said several other targets in the Odesa region were attacked in a volley of missile and drone strikes. Though Russia has frequently attacked Ukrainian ports, this incident marks an escalation to the Black Sea shipping wars, increasing the danger to commercial vessels regardless of nation of origin, Hutchinson told us.

“We are heading to an uncharted time,” he explained. “We are now seeing two state actors attacking commercial shipping.”

While Russia has hit Ukrainian ports before, strikes on ships have been largely incidental. A concerted campaign against vessels would make shipping companies think twice before sending vessels into this area due to the risks to ships and crews. We saw that play out when the Houthis were attacking Red Sea shipping and a large percentage of companies opted to avoid the region. This would be very problematic for Ukraine.

The CENK-T was reportedly bringing in a shipment of generators, which Ukraine badly needs as Russia attacks its energy infrastructure. As we noted earlier in this story, on Dec. 2, Putin threatened to attack the shipping of nations helping Ukraine. We reached out to the vessel’s owner, CENK RoRo, for more information about the attack and how it will respond.

Zelensky decried the attack, saying it was another sign Russians aren’t interested in peace.

“Today’s Russian strike, like many other similar attacks, had, and could not have, any military sense,” the Ukrainian leader stated on X. “A civilian ship in the Chornomorsk port was damaged. This once again proves that the Russians not only do not take the current chance for diplomacy seriously enough, but also continue the war aimed at destroying normal life in Ukraine.”

The Russians have not officially commented on the CENK-T strike; however, Russian media acknowledged that it was in response to the attacks that damaged the four Russian ships and that the tempo could increase.

“Earlier, Vladimir Putin directly stated that the strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukrainian ports are a completely justified response to Kyiv’s actions,” the Russian Readovka media outlet suggested. “At the same time, the sinking of just 10-15 ships in one port could paralyze its operations.”

The most recent of those took place on Wednesday when Sea Baby drones from Ukraine’s state security service (SBU) attacked the Serbian-flagged crude oil tanker Dashan in the Black Sea. Video of that attack showed the drones approaching the ship, which erupted in flames.

The Dashan attack, as we noted in our previous coverage, was preceded by others. On Dec. 2, a Ukrainian aerial drone struck the Russian-owned oil tanker Midvolga-2 about 80 miles north of the Turkish city of Sinop. A few days earlier, oil tankers, Kairos and Virat, were struck in quick succession off Turkey’s Black Sea coast by Ukrainian Sea Baby drones. These vessels are reportedly part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” that evades sanctions.

Ukraine, as we have frequently reported, is waging a campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure involving numerous attacks on refineries, ports and other supply hubs inside Russia. The attack on the Dashan is a further indication that Ukraine is taking this fight to Russian vessels at sea.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has reportedly signaled its support for the Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels 

The Atlantic suggested that while the Biden administration feared escalation and opposed attacks on Russian vessels in international waters, Trump has taken the opposite tack. The publication reported that not only did the Trump administration not object to strikes, but in a number of cases, approved the transfer of intelligence to Kyiv, which was used to hit oil infrastructure facilities in Russia. The War Zone cannot independently verify that claim.

In the wake of today’s attack, Ambrey issued a warning to all ships making Black Sea port calls. These vessels “are advised to conduct comprehensive voyage threat assessments,” the company stated. “The crew is advised to remain within the designated Safe Muster Point (SMP) during missile attacks on infrastructure. The SMP should be located above the waterline, amidships and low-down in the superstructure.”

The coming days will tell if both parties continue to prosecute commercial shipping targets and what that could mean for maritime access to Ukraine.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com