response

Experts urge ‘strategic ambiguity’ in South Korea’s response

President Donald Trump (R) makes remarks as he stands with Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi of Japan during a dinner in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on Thursday, March 19, 2026. Earlier in the day, the President and Takeuchi exchanged views on Iran, energy, and issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Photo by Aaron Schwartz/UPI | License Photo

March 22 (Asia Today) — South Korea should maintain “strategic ambiguity” in responding to U.S. pressure over the Middle East crisis, experts said, as tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz intensify.

The call comes after Donald Trump urged allies including South Korea, Japan and European partners to play a greater role following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, raising concerns in Seoul about balancing its alliance with Washington and broader diplomatic interests.

South Korean officials said they are taking a cautious approach and have not received formal requests from the United States regarding potential military deployment to the Strait of Hormuz.

The government is focusing on assessing the intent behind Trump’s remarks while weighing the risks of deeper involvement in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route, has long been vulnerable to disruption. Analysts say any effort to secure maritime traffic would likely require multinational coordination rather than unilateral action.

Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven nations recently condemned Iran’s attacks on civilian infrastructure and said they are prepared to take steps to support global energy supplies, though the timing of any direct action remains unclear.

A Foreign Ministry official said stability in Middle Eastern shipping lanes is vital for South Korea and other major economies, noting that ensuring safe passage is a challenge that cannot be addressed by a single country.

Experts pointed to Japan’s approach under Sanae Takaichi as a potential model. Tokyo has prioritized its alliance with the United States while limiting direct military involvement, balancing energy security, international law and domestic public opinion.

Lee Ki-tae, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said South Korea should similarly avoid automatic military intervention and instead preserve flexibility.

“Maintaining strategic ambiguity allows South Korea to uphold its alliance while avoiding immediate alignment with any one side,” he said.

Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said logistical and political constraints also support a cautious stance. He noted that deploying naval forces would require parliamentary approval, a process that could take about two months.

He added that evolving and sometimes inconsistent messaging from Washington further underscores the need for careful deliberation.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260323010006558

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Ryanair shares tongue-in-cheek response to angry passengers who miss flights

Ryanair have shared their brutal opinion on passengers who miss their flights and then complain to the airline, and people have said their video was ‘accurate’

Missing your flight can prove an enormously frustrating ordeal, particularly when the hold-up is completely beyond your control. Delays can occur due to security complications, last-minute boarding gate changes requiring you to trek across the entire airport, or even a late taxi journey to the terminal.

However, occasionally the blame lies squarely with the traveller themselves. It’s widely understood that arriving at the airport with ample time to spare is essential to accommodate these possible setbacks, and opting to turn up at the eleventh hour or lingering so long in duty-free that you miss boarding entirely isn’t the airline’s responsibility.

And in a cheeky video, Ryanair have been refreshingly blunt about their views on such passengers. The Irish budget carrier shared a clip on Facebook in which they mockingly demonstrated what travellers who miss their flights apparently expect the aircraft to do to accommodate them.

The footage depicted a man reaching the airport precisely as his plane departed from the tarmac. He yelled in desperation and dashed onto the runway, whereupon the aircraft looped back and employed some kind of science fiction film-style beam to teleport the man aboard whilst still airborne.

Ryanair captioned it: “What passengers that miss their flight expect us to do.”

Ryanair’s candid video had commenters in stitches, with many responding with laughing emojis. Some expressed bafflement at how frequently travellers lose track of time in airports, ignoring boarding announcements and then becoming irate when the plane departs without them.

One individual commented: “Accurate!”

Another chimed in: “I would work for free in this marketing team.”

A third shared: “I watched four people chatting for like two hours in front of me whilst their gate was open and they waited until everyone boarded the flight, and then went to the gate after it was closed and started shouting at the employees. The whole time they were sitting and chatting, 10 steps, literally, from the gate!”

What to do if you miss your flight

If you find yourself missing your flight, the first course of action should be to ring the airline you’re booked with as soon as you realise you’re going to be late. This could be due to traffic en-route to the airport, other travel disruptions, or lengthy queues at security once inside the airport.

According to Which?, this can boost your chances of being rebooked onto another flight at no extra cost, or if a fee is required, it may be less than the price of purchasing a new ticket. Some airlines offer a “rescue fare” or a “rescue fee” for missed flights, but the conditions for this will vary depending on the airline you’re flying with.

You may also incur a “no-show fee” from certain airlines if you fail to turn up to the airport at all, so if you’re running behind schedule, you should still attempt to reach the airport, even if you don’t manage to board the plane.

Certain travel insurance policies might also provide cover if you miss your flight, but this will be dependent on your policy, and numerous policies don’t offer protection if it’s down to lengthy queues at the airport.

The most effective way to reduce the risk of missing your flight is to allow ample time to journey to the airport and pass through security, taking into account any possible delays.

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UK Grows Its Defensive Posture Abroad In Response To Iran Conflict

British Armed Forces assets continue to flow into Cyprus, as the United Kingdom bolsters its military presence in the eastern Mediterranean in response to the war in the Middle East. While the British government has not taken part in direct military action against targets within Iran, the expanding conflict has also put Cyprus under direct threat. Meanwhile, the rush to bolster the U.K.’s military capabilities in the region has highlighted some glaring deficits in the British Armed Forces.

The British military response to the conflict in the Middle East has centered on the island of Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean, which has long been home to a U.K. Armed Forces presence. As well as providing a ‘landing pad’ for British forces operating in the region, for example, during the counter-ISIS mission, Cyprus has long been used by the British for training and exercises. The so-called Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus comprise the airbase of RAF Akrotiri and Dhekelia Station (a former airfield), which have been in British hands since the Republic of Cyprus was established in 1960.

British bases in Cyprus in relation to the wider eastern Mediterranean. Google Earth
RAF Akrotiri. Google Earth

Fighter assets

Before the Iran war began, eight Royal Air Force Typhoon multirole fighters were already deployed to Akrotiri, where they were still operating on the U.K. counter-ISIS mission, Operation Shader. Other U.K. Armed Forces personnel were also in Iraq under Shader.

In the wider region, there was also an existing RAF Typhoon footprint in Qatar, where a squadron of the jets is operated jointly with the Qatar Emir Air Force. This unit was strengthened in January, when another four Typhoons deployed there from the United Kingdom, specifically for air defense.

Today, we can confirm we are sending four additional @RoyalAirForce Typhoon jets to Qatar, to support defensive operations in the region.

These aircraft are in addition to the existing jets from the UK-Qatar Joint Typhoon Squadron that we deployed in January to reinforce… pic.twitter.com/WZZDEj3Vfa

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 5, 2026

Typhoons from No. 12 Squadron, the joint U.K.-Qatar Typhoon squadron, conduct a flypast over Doha. Crown Copyright AS1 Tomas Barnard RAF

In February, six RAF F-35B Lightnings were sent to Akrotiri in Cyprus, joining the Typhoons already deployed there.

As Iran and its proxies have launched drones and missiles at countries across the region, the U.K. Armed Forces have been active in intercepting drones (and potentially also cruise missiles).

The real wakeup call came overnight on March 1, when a drone launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon hit Akrotiri. There were no reported casualties and only “minimal damage,” although this was, significantly, an impact that tore a hole in the hangar used by the U.S. Air Force U-2 Dragon Lady spy planes that are also regularly detached to Cyprus. Two more drones heading toward Cyprus were reportedly intercepted the same day.

Another two drones heading for Cyprus were intercepted on March 4, according to a Cypriot government spokesperson.

The U.K. Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the four Typhoons in Qatar, as well as the Cyprus-based F-35Bs, have since been active in bringing down hostile drones. The F-35B achieved its first air-to-air victories in British hands when one of the fighters shot down a pair of Iranian drones, announced on March 3.

The pilot involved in that historic engagement was a Royal Navy aviator embedded within the RAF’s joint-force No. 617 Squadron, the “Dambusters.”

The pilot fired two infrared-guided Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (ASRAAM) in the space of 20 minutes, each from a range of less than a mile, to destroy the Shahed-type drones over Jordan. They subsequently told The Telegraph:

“Your adrenaline is pumping pretty hard, you’re working down low at night above the desert in unfamiliar terrain. Emotionally, those things get pushed aside in the moment. It’s not until after landing that it begins to settle in.”

Pictured: 9th February 2026 – 617 Sqn F-35B Lightning jets conduct QRA (Quick Reaction Alert) training, operating from RAF Akrotiri. F-35B Lightning, a 5th Generation, multi-role, stealth fighter, is usually based at RAF Marham. The Station is also home to a range of engineering support functions, from maintenance to frontline support. [Names have been blurred from jets and surcoats to protect PERSEC]
An F-35B jet conducts Quick Reaction Alert training, operating from RAF Akrotiri. Crown Copyright AS1 Amber Mayall RAF

Lt. Col. Mike Carty, commanding officer of No. 617 Squadron, added: “The tempo of flying here is greater than anything the Lightning Force has embarked upon before. The sheer amount of sorties and flying hours is quite high. People are being stretched and working incredibly hard, but nobody is under any particular strain. We are set up here to be able to sustain this.”

The continued threat posed by Iranian drones and cruise missiles has also seen the decision made to send another four Typhoons to Qatar. RAF Typhoons have also successfully shot down drones targeting Bahrain, Jordan, and Qatar.

Destroyer deployment

The United Kingdom has also elected to beef up its defensive capabilities in the eastern Mediterranean with the deployment of a Type 45 destroyer. This was the subject of considerable debate before it was finally announced that HMS Dragon would sail for the region. The warship departed yesterday for a voyage that will take around 10 days.

Royal Navy destroyer HMS Dragon today departed the UK to head to the Eastern Mediterranean to bolster British defences in the region today (10/03/2026). The crew’s loved ones joined hundreds of well-wishers lining the seawall as Dragon slipped out of Portsmouth Harbour, while last week drone-busting Wildcat helicopters departed from RNAS Yeovilton, and on Monday a Merlin Mk2 helicopter from RNAS Culdrose in Cornwall arrived in Cyprus. The Portsmouth-based warship will use her Sea Viper missile system to help safeguard UK assets and interests – assisted by Wildcats from 815 Naval Air Squadron equipped with Martlet missiles able to deal with the aerial drone threat. The decision to send the Royal Navy assets came as Iran’s attacks continue to target British interests in the region and the UK Armed Forces continue to adapt to the changing threats. It builds on the UK increased defensive presence in the region in recent weeks, including deploying radar systems, air defence, and F-35 stealth fighters which are already conducting air defence sorties. Based in Portsmouth and each with a crew of around 200 sailors, the Royal Navy’s six Type 45 destroyers are the Fleet’s first line of defence against aerial threats – aircraft, missiles, drones – and are capable of protecting an area up to five times the size of Cyprus. HMS Dragon can track hundreds of targets simultaneously – and eliminate them with the Sea Viper system which can launch eight missiles in under ten seconds and direct up to 16 missiles on to their targets simultaneously, closing in for the kill at up to four times the speed of sound, manoeuvring at G-Forces no human can endure. *** Local Caption ***
HMS Dragon departs Portsmouth Harbour, U.K., to head to the eastern Mediterranean to bolster British defences in the region today, on March 10, 2026. Crown Copyright LPHOT Tim Lombard

However, the Type 45 is the United Kingdom’s most balanced and capable air defense platform, at least against drones and cruise missiles.

HMS Dragon has begun her journey to the eastern Mediterranean to join the UK’s defensive operations in the region.

Hundreds of well-wishers, including loved ones of the ship’s crew, lined the seawall as the ship sailed from Portsmouth.

🔗https://t.co/xQqazM6Mcd pic.twitter.com/ScskyAu0CF

— Royal Navy (@RoyalNavy) March 10, 2026

The basic Type 45’s weapons fit includes Aster 30 missiles fired from the Sea Viper system, which represents the Royal Navy’s outer air defense layer. According to the Royal Navy, the Sea Viper is able to track “hundreds” of potential threats to an individual ship or task group at ranges up to 250 miles, using Aster 30 missiles to eliminate them when they close to “around 70 miles.” Other sources suggest the Mach-3 missile has a range of more than 75 miles.

On the 15th of May 2025 HMS Dragon took part in a Sea viper Live firing against a supersonic sea skimming target. This is the first time in Royal Navy history this has been achieved. During the exercise HMS Dragon was working with other NATO Ships conducting missile firings. HMS Dragon is currently on exercise Formidable Shield. The purpose of the exercise is a joint, live-fire, integrated air and Missile defense exercise. The exercise consists of 10 NATO countries involving ships, aircraft, ground forces and deployed staff. Parts of this package have been manipulated for operational Security.
HMS Dragon fires a Sea Viper missile against a supersonic sea-skimming target. Crown Copyright LPhot Oliver Leach

There is also the Aster 15 with a range of around 18 miles, optimizing it for close-in and local-area and point defense. For aerial threats even closer to the warship, the Type 45 can call upon a pair of Phalanx close-in weapon systems (CIWS) armed with 20mm ‘Gatling’ cannons, 30mm guns, and various machine guns.

When it comes to ballistic missile defense, the Type 45 is much more limited, however.

While HMS Diamond did shoot down one of the Houthis’ anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) in 2024, this is an easier threat to deal with than the medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) that Iran is currently launching toward Israel.

“Smoke” (infrared) decoy employment aftermath seen from HMS Diamond’s bridge during the ballistic missile engagement. One of the decoy launchers can be seen beneath the 30mm gun sponson, loaded with the by now familiar mix including Chemring Large Payload Carriers. pic.twitter.com/1TgWrgrDzP

— Gabriele Molinelli (@Gabriel64869839) April 26, 2024

Also in 2024, the U.K. Ministry of Defense announced that it would invest around $515 million to upgrade Sea Viper, making it “even more lethal against new and growing threats from hostile drones and missiles.”

Under the upgrade, the Aster 30 missile will be modernized to improve its capabilities against ASBMs, with an enhanced warhead plus new guidance and seeker software. The upgrade will also address the Sampson multi-function radar as well as the command-and-control system and combat management system.

A second phase will see the evaluation of a new missile, the Aster 30 Block 1NT, currently under development by France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. This missile features a new seeker, which would further improve the ballistic missile defense capabilities of the Type 45. In particular, Block 1NT will be better equipped to intercept MRBMs carrying maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), which you can read more about here.

However, these upgrades are yet to be fielded.

More generally, there have long been questions about the availability of the Type 45s, despite their undoubted capabilities. These six vessels are still very modern, but they have spent a notably long time in maintenance. Typically, only two are actually available to deploy at any given time. With one of the warships normally earmarked for the North Atlantic and Russia, and another needed to escort one of the U.K. aircraft carriers when that is at sea, there is very little capacity left to play with.

This also brings us to the question of the two British aircraft carriers of the Queen Elizabeth class. With the war entering its second week, HMS Prince of Wales appeared poised to deploy, with the crew at five days’ notice to sail. Earlier this week, however, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman gave the following statement: “HMS Prince of Wales has always been on very high readiness. The MoD is increasing the preparedness of the carrier — reducing the time it would take to set sail for any deployment — but there is no decision taken to deploy her.”

HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Queen Elizabeth are pictured at sea for the first time together in 2021. Crown Copyright HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Queen Elizabeth pictured at sea for the first time. Wednesday 19 May 2021 saw a historic moment in Britain’s carrier renaissance as HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales met at sea for the first time. Petty Officer Photographer Jay Allen

Critics of the hugely costly aircraft carrier program might ask why these warships, which are designed to respond to just this kind of crisis, are being held back.

U.S. President Donald Trump also used the lack of carrier deployment as a stick with which to beat the U.K. government. On his Truth Social platform, Trump said that the United States did not need Britain’s carriers in the conflict and suggested they would have been useful had they deployed before the war began.

Short-range air defense

To help cover short-range air defense over Cyprus, the United Kingdom has deployed two Royal Navy Wildcat helicopters armed with Martlet missiles. On the plus side, each helicopter can carry up to 20 of these missiles, which are ideal for bringing down drones. On the other hand, the missiles have a range of only around five miles, and with just two ‘cabs’ available, the Wildcat deployment is really only capable of providing limited point defense.

A Royal Navy Wildcat HMA2 lifts off for a training flight after arrival at a British base in Cyprus on March 8, 2026. Crown Copyright AS1 Joshua Whiting

With that in mind, it’s somewhat surprising that the British Army hasn’t deployed any of its Sky Sabre short-range air defense systems to Cyprus, or anywhere else in the region. The Sky Sabre is intended to bring down aircraft, as well as drones and cruise missiles. However, it’s unclear how many batteries are currently deployable. One is stationed in the Falkland Islands, and another has been deployed on NATO’s eastern flank, in Poland, and the 12 batteries on order are still being delivered.

The Sky Sabre fires the Common Anti-Air Modular Missile, or CAMM, also known as the Land Ceptor. The same CAMM missile is also used in naval applications — including aboard Royal Navy warships — as the Sea Ceptor. Fitted with an active-radar seeker, the CAMM is derived from the aforementioned ASRAAM. The CAAM has a reported range of more than 15 miles and is said to be able to tackle a wide range of threats, including low-observable targets, high-speed missiles, drones, and precision-guided air-to-ground weapons.

Pictured: The British Army Sky Sabre state-of-the-art intermediate air defence system. It marks a wholesale upgrade to the venerable Rapier system that was in service for nearly five decades. Sky Sabre, comprising of three separate components: The Agile Multi-Beam Surveillance Targeting radar (affectionally referred to as the Giraffe, pictured left), the Battle Management Command & Control Communications (not shown), and the Land Ceptor CAMM (Common Anti-Air Modular Missiles) missile delivery vehicle (right). All are pictured together for the purposes of the photographs; on the battlefield, they could be expected to operate up to 15Km apart. The system is designed to respond to sophisticated missile attacks and can defend against saturation attacks of supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, aircraft and other high-performance targets. at a range of 120Km using the CAMM (Common Anti-Air Modular Missile), travelling at over 2300 miles per hour. It does this via multiple channels of fire, providing 360-degree simultaneous coverage and high degrees of manoeuvrability.
The British Army Sky Sabre air defense system. Sky Sabre comprises three separate components: the Agile Multi-Beam Surveillance Targeting radar (Giraffe, pictured left), the Battle Management Command & Control Communications (not shown), and the Land Ceptor CAMM (Common Anti-Air Modular Missiles) missile launcher vehicle (right). Crown Copyright Corporal Adam J Wakefield

Meanwhile, the ability to surveil the airspace around Cyprus received an upgrade yesterday with the arrival of a Royal Navy Merlin HM2 Crowsnest helicopter, with airborne surveillance and control (ASaC) capabilities.

The Merlin brings a look-down sensor capability, making it something of a ‘pocket’ version of the E-7 Wedgetail. From altitude, the radar has an excellent field of view to spot low and slow-flying targets, even if they are relatively small. This makes it especially useful for tracking drones and cruise missiles.

Image of a Royal Navy Merlin helicopter from RNAS Culdrose, seen here departing for the Middle East today (07/03/2026). Merlin HM2 helicopters are equipped with anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and airborne surveillance and control (ASaC). Additional typhoon jets have arrived in the Middle East, further strengthening the UK's defensive capabilities in the region. The UK is conducting air operations in defence of British interests and allies.
A Royal Navy Merlin Crowsnest helicopter from RNAS Culdrose, seen here departing for the Middle East on March 7, 2026. Crown Copyright Royal Navy

Other British counter-drone units have also been active in the wider region.

Few details have been provided, but these are likely to consist of non-kinetic systems (like the ORCUS) and man-portable air defense systems (like the Starstreak missile) used by troops who have a limited presence in Jordan and Iraq, where they have been since before the Iran war began.

Pictured: Air Defence Troop of 29 Commando armed with StarStreak react to a simulated F-35 Lightning B attack from their observation post on the mountains during Ex Green Dagger 25. Royal Marines from 45 Commando have deployed to the Mountain Warfare Training Centre at Pickel Meadows in California, USA for Exercise Green Dagger. During nearly two months at Pickel Meadows, Arbroath-based 45 Commando of the UK Commando Force will operate closely with the US Marine Corps, perfecting skills required to survive and fight in the mountains. The Commandos will be conducting a range of mountain warfare scenarios, including testing new weapons, kit and equipment across the arid terrain. They will operate closely with US Marines, honing skills together and further develop their ability to work together in extreme environments. Green Dagger will culminate in both forces testing their warfare skills against each other. 45 Commando are the UK Commando Force’s Mountain and Arctic warfare experts, required to keep techniques and procedures sharp in case they are called upon to deploy to these extreme places
The Air Defence Troop of 29 Commando, armed with Starstreak, reacts to a simulated F-35 attack during Exercise Green Dagger 25, in California. Crown Copyright LPhot Stainer- Hutchins

Overall, though, the conflict has highlighted the somewhat limited nature of U.K. ground-based air defense capabilities.

More generally, the deployments so far, in a purely defensive capacity, have raised concerns about the breadth, depth, and readiness of U.K. military power and its relevance in international affairs.

The question of “going kinetic”

The United Kingdom initially denied permission for the U.S. military to use its airbases — including Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean — for strikes against Iran, as we discussed at the time. This was soon revised, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer saying his government had agreed to a U.S. request to use British military bases for “defensive” strikes.

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, visits RAF Akrotiri in December 2024. Crown Copyright

Were the British stance to change, it is questionable whether RAF jets, as currently deployed, would be able to make a significant contribution, based on their small numbers, their other taskings, and the long distance to targets in Iran.

According to an assessment by the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think-tank, realistically, the fighter force at Akrotiri would only have been able to fly 28 strike sorties against Iran, had they been committed to Operation Epic Fury. This is very much a best-case scenario, and would also have required significant tanker support.

A British offensive campaign against Iran would otherwise rely primarily upon the Royal Navy, which operates nuclear-powered attack submarines that can launch Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM). However, this is a capability that has suffered from poor availability in recent years. Currently, only one of five in-service Astute class submarines, HMS Anson, is at sea, and it was in the Indo-Pacific region as of January.

22 Feb 2026 - HMS Anson in transit to HMAS Stirling. A Royal Navy submarine has arrived in Australia for an historic visit to strengthen the UK’s commitment to the security of the Indo-Pacific. HMS Anson docked at HMAS Stirling – the Astute-class boat’s first visit Down Under – as part of the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK and the United States, known as AUKUS. The visit is seen as a crucial part of the ongoing process of supporting Australia to develop the skills and capabilities necessary to operate, maintain and steward conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines. During her visit to the base, near Perth, the boat will host a series of high-profile engagement activities and will be in the country for the 125th anniversary of the Royal Australian Navy. *** Local Caption *** HMS Anson has arrived at HMAS Stirling for a Submarine Maintenance Period. This the first visit by an Astute class submarine to Australia since October 2021 and the first maintenance activity to occur for a UK SSN in Australia. The visit marks another key milestone in the implementation of the Optimal Pathway and Australia's preparation for the start of Submarine Rotational Force-West in 2027.
HMS Anson arrives in Australia earlier this year for a historic visit to strengthen the U.K.’s commitment to the security of the Indo-Pacific. Crown Copyright LAC Thomas Clarke-Kelly

So far, however, the U.K. government has held back from committing to any kind of direct offensive action against Iran, although there have been voices raised across the political spectrum urging that the United Kingdom should back the United States more actively, including taking part in strikes. Kemi Badenoch, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, berated Starmer this week for not doing more to “stop the people who are attacking us” and said the U.K. Armed Forces should “do more than catch the arrows” and should “catch the archer” — a reference to striking missile and drone facilities directly.

For the time being, the U.K. Armed Forces, ravaged by decades of post-Cold War cuts, are bringing some useful but fairly limited in capacity air defense capabilities to the region. Should the U.K. government’s policy regarding Iran become aligned with that of the United States, then much more serious questions will be answered about the relevance and resilience of British military power in an operation of this kind.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Thomas is a defense writer and editor with over 20 years of experience covering military aerospace topics and conflicts. He’s written a number of books, edited many more, and has contributed to many of the world’s leading aviation publications. Before joining The War Zone in 2020, he was the editor of AirForces Monthly.




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Oil Underinvestment Could Hinder US’ Iran-Crisis Response: Here’s Why

Home News Oil Underinvestment Could Hinder US’ Iran-Crisis Response: Here’s Why

No matter how the Iran war gets resolved, the US and other countries will be forced to reckon with a global oil market in complete disarray.

Underinvestment in the oil industry makes the current supply shock much riskier worldwide, industry experts say, forcing the US, the EU, and various Gulf countries into a scramble over where and how to extract.

Prior to the US’ attack on Iran on February 28, the situation had already been precarious. Iran basically controls the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest oil shipping channel. Transportation through this channel is currently closed, despite President Donald Trump’s promise to keep it open. Regardless of how this situation resolves, the broader implications of structural underinvestment across the oil and gas value chain have exposed just how unstable the global energy infrastructure is.

“This is not your father’s energy sector anymore,” Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial, says.

Essentially, there was a shift from “drill drill drill” to returning cash to shareholders through dividends and free cash flow, he explained. This change led to better stock performance and improved financial metrics, such as credit spreads and default swaps. But, Turnquist adds, “there’s evidence of under-investment.”

‘A Multi-Million-Barrel Disruption’

Recall the 2011‑2014 time frame when oil prices were above $100 per barrel. Major oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron Corp, BP plc, Shell plc and TotalEnergies SE enjoyed strong cash flows, allowing them to generate substantial profits and reward shareholders.

When oil prices collapsed between 2014 and 2016, institutional shareholders pushed hard for capital discipline instead of growth. Corporations, rather than drilling aggressively, returned troves of cash to investors via buybacks and dividends.

In 2023, alone, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP returned a record $114 billion to shareholders — 76% higher than their average payouts.

“That translated into lower reinvestment rates, fewer long‑cycle megaproject sanctions, and a bias toward short‑cycle barrels, even as global demand continued to grow,” Benny Wong, Senior Energy Analyst at PitchBook, told Global Finance.

There was also an energy transition, and companies prioritized ESG (environmental, social, and governance) over long-term oil projects, leading major funds to reduce fossil fuel investments.

“The result is a thinner spare capacity buffer and a smaller pipeline of readily deployable projects, which limits the industry’s ability to backfill a sudden, multi‑million‑barrel disruption like the one arising from the Iran conflict,” Wong added.

Oil Prices Spike

So far, the shock is reverberating across the globe. Brent crude, the international benchmark, entered 2026 oversupplied, with forward prices in the $50s, according to Chas Johnston, CreditSights senior analyst.

On Monday, the price of Brent crude spiked to $119.50 per barrel—the highest it has been since the summer of 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

“It’s nearly the same cadence,” Turnquist says, citing Bloomberg data. See the chart below.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, also saw similar price spikes, briefly reaching $119.48 per barrel. By late Monday, prices fell back below $90 per barrel, following mixed signals from US leadership, including contradictory statements from Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about the conflict’s timeline.

And it could get worse, according to Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy firm for the energy sector. On Tuesday, the firm determined that $200 per barrel “is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026.”

To quell the panic, extreme measures are under consideration. The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed on Wednesday to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address the current disruption. That’s double the amount the IEA put into the market in 2022.

Over the weekend, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US could potentially release oil from its 400 million barrels of reserve to lower gas prices.

Trump subsequently confirmed that he would ease sanctions on certain countries to help reduce oil prices. This followed a recent 30-day waiver announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on sanctions for Russian oil sales to India, due to global supply pressures.

Can Any Country Fill The Gap?

Further complicating matters, oil-producing countries like Bahrain and Kuwait declared “force majeure,” stopping production as storage nears capacity and exports falter. With Iran, Israel, and the U.S. each targeting energy infrastructure and the narrow Strait of Hormuz under threat, it remains unclear which alternative transport routes or supply sources could fill the gap.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates remain two key options because they hold most of OPEC’s effective spare capacity. However, analysts still question how much cushion truly exists and how long they can sustain it. Reports already suggest Saudi Arabia and the UAE have begun reducing output by several million barrels per day.

“In other words,” Wong says, “the buffer is meaningful but not unlimited, particularly if the disruption is prolonged or widens regionally.”

West African and Guyanese deepwater projects won’t quickly replace lost supply, either. However, they could strengthen global production over the medium to long term, Wong says. Guyana’s rapidly developing offshore sector, for example, could add more output in the coming years, though expansion will still take time.

Then there’s Namibia, which has had significant offshore discoveries in recent years. BP, Shell and TotalEnergies are among the companies that have set up shop there, but as Wong puts it: “Commercial production is still a few years away.”

US Shale Is Another Issue

As for the US, a rapid ramp now requires more than just a strong price signal.

“Producers are operating with much tighter capital discipline, and scaling quickly requires having available rigs, completion crews, frac sand and pipeline takeaway capacity, all of which can act as bottlenecks,” Wong says.

CreditSights’ Johnston agrees.

“The ability for US producers to respond is also quite limited, because it still takes six to nine months to bring new production online, even from the short-cycle shale industry,” he says.

Until then, the stakes remain high. Wood Mackenzie projects roughly 15 million barrels per day (mbpd) of Gulf oil exports could be lost if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. They note that alternatives like US shale and uncompleted wells might only add a few hundred thousand barrels per day over months — not even close to filling the 15 million‑barrel gap.

The circumstances are enough to give analysts pause, given the cavalier attitude coming from the US.

Turnquist echoed a point his firm’s chief macro strategist made during a recent call: “You can’t shake the hornet’s nest and then put it back away.” Once geopolitical issues ignite, they rarely resolve quickly, he said, pointing to wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Russia-Ukraine as examples.

“There’s really no concrete signs that it’s going to end anytime soon,” he added.

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Newsom planning $19-million push to polish California’s national image

Gov. Gavin Newsom plans to spend $19 million promoting California and dispelling “myths driven by misinformation and political rhetoric” in a marketing campaign that would run through the final months of his administration as he weighs a potential run for president.

The new contract, which is in the bidding process, comes as Newsom’s political future and national standing are closely tied to how voters view California’s economy, crime and quality of life — issues that have become central to attacks from President Trump and conservative media outlets.

The Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development is seeking a contractor to design a statewide taxpayer-funded “California Brand Campaign,” with two-thirds of spending under the proposal to be used for paid advertising and media placements. Bidding on the contract opened Feb. 24 and is expected to end March 13.

The solicitation frames the campaign as an effort to push back on what Newsom has often described as misleading narratives about California. The campaign would launch during a period of financial uncertainty for the state, with Newsom’s January budget projecting a $3-billion deficit next fiscal year.

“California and its business climate have been falsely and maliciously maligned for years, and the state has a right to tell the true story — California is a great place to do live, work, invest and visit,” said Newsom spokesperson Tara Gallegos. “Setting the record straight will benefit every business, worker and resident of this state.”

Newsom is contemplating a run for president in 2028 and says he remains undecided about whether he will pursue the Oval Office.

State Sen. Roger Niello (R-Fair Oaks), who is vice chair of the Senate budget committee, said the language of the proposal request is concerning. He said it would make it easier to stifle criticisms of policies that he says make it difficult to do business in California.

“This is clearly part of the Gavin Newsom for President campaign, but what is most troubling to me is that this is a program to be developed by some private-sector contractor to define what is acceptable speech in the state of California,” Niello said. “That scares the stuffing out of me.”

The negative image of California — homeless encampments lining the streets, smash-and-grab robberies at malls and an exodus of residents and businesses fleeing high taxes and nanny-state governance — could be a liability for Newsom if he runs for president.

Newsom has seen his popularity surge in the last year after his fight-fire-with-fire approach to countering Trump’s rhetoric. The two-term governor has used his expanding platform, including a podcast and nationwide book tour for his recently released memoir, to repeatedly push back on Trump’s criticisms of California. He argues that California remains one of the world’s largest and most dynamic economies and the envy of other states.

The tone of the marketing campaign bid request itself echoes that message, with its introductory paragraph pulled directly from Newsom’s State of the State speech in January.

“California has never been about perfection,” it reads. “It’s about persistence. The courage of our convictions and the strength to embody them. That’s the California Way.”

Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who runs the research nonprofit Latino Working Class Project, said scrutiny of the campaign will depend on whether the ads veer into politics or overtly promote Newsom in the way federal border security ads showcased the now ousted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

“You have to ask why now?” Madrid said of Newsom’s timing for the California ad campaign. “He’s in the eighth inning of a nine-inning baseball game. Timing and tone are everything when considering the appropriateness.”

The use of taxpayer dollars to combat negative publicity about the state and the governor isn’t new under the Newsom administration.

Newsom tapped an employee in his communications office to serve as his “deputy director of rapid response” in 2024. Staff member Brandon Richards, who made $136,000 last year, is tasked with quickly dispatching responses to information the governor’s team deems inaccurate or misleading that is spread on social media and in the media.

When right-wing accounts claimed in February that Newsom allows dogs to vote in California, Richards responded with a CBS News article reporting that a woman was charged with five felonies for registering her canine. Richards and the governor’s office pushed back on false assertions that Newsom and his wife, First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom, were stealing money from the state through her office that same day.

Newsom’s frustration reached a boiling point over claims about the state’s response to the Los Angeles wildfires last year. President Trump publicly blamed Newsom and “his Los Angeles crew” for the disaster, though the Republican’s claims that a lack of water in Southern California led to a shortage for firefighters were widely debunked.

Newsom’s political team launched a website in January 2025 to fight misinformation about the L.A. fires, which he said at the time would “ensure the public has access to fact-based data.” The site, www.californiafirefacts.com, no longer appears to exist.

At one point, however, it redirected viewers to the redistricting campaign website for Proposition 50, according to internet archives. Newsom championed the successful redistricting ballot measure to add more Democrats to California’s congressional delegation, a direct response to Trump urging Texas and other Republican states to reconfigure their congressional boundaries to elect more Republicans to Congress.

Newsom adopted an even more aggressive social media strategy last summer after Trump deployed the National Guard and U.S. Marines to California during federal immigration sweeps. The governor directed his team to match the brash communication tactics emanating from the White House. His aides continue to shoot down criticism and launch their own snarky assaults on Trump and his allies.

The new ad campaign appears to be an extension of his work to refute the anti-California narrative.

The request for bids says “some look at this state and try to tear down our progress. They attack our values and caricature our culture. They distort the data to diminish our accomplishments.”

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