rebounds

Aug. 2 (Asia Today) — Chung Cheong-rae rebounded in the South Korean ruling Democratic Party’s leadership race Sunday, defeating Kim Min-seok in the southeastern region after narrowly losing the opening contest in central South Korea.

Chung and Kim have each won one of the first two regional rounds ahead of the party’s Aug. 17 national convention, leaving the race for party leader virtually even.

Chung received 25,189 votes, or 46.65%, from eligible party members in Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province.

Kim finished second with 23,675 votes, or 43.84%, leaving Chung ahead by 1,514 votes, or 2.81 percentage points.

Former party leader Song Young-gil received 5,129 votes, or 9.49%. The officially reported percentages were rounded to 46.65% for Chung, 43.85% for Kim and 9.5% for Song.

Kim had narrowly won Saturday’s opening round in the Chungcheong region, which includes Daejeon, Sejong and North and South Chungcheong provinces.

Kim received 45.05%, compared with Chung’s 44.61%, a margin of 303 votes, or 0.44 percentage points. Song received 10.34%.

After the first two rounds, Chung held a narrow cumulative lead with about 45.5%, compared with Kim’s 44.5%.

The results announced during the regional contests represent only the first-choice votes of eligible party members. Delegate votes and the results of a public opinion survey will be announced at the national convention in Daejeon.

One-person, one-vote system raises importance of members

The Democratic Party finalized an electoral roll last week containing 17,667 delegates and more than 1.52 million dues-paying party members.

The leadership election is the first to apply a one-person, one-vote principle equally to delegates and eligible members, replacing a system in which individual delegate votes carried substantially more weight.

Combined votes from delegates and eligible party members will account for 70% of the final result, while a public opinion survey will make up the remaining 30%.

The large number of party members means their preferences are expected to play a decisive role.

The Chungcheong and southeastern electorates together represent less than 20% of the total party electorate, however, making it too early to predict the final outcome.

Chung told reporters after Sunday’s results that he had regained the lead.

“I have come from behind,” Chung said.

He compared his campaign with former President Roh Moo-hyun’s victory over Lee In-je during the 2002 presidential nomination race.

Chung said Roh defeated an opponent supported by an established political organization and numerous lawmakers despite having little comparable institutional backing.

“Just as Roh Moo-hyun defeated Lee In-je, who lined up organizations and lawmakers behind him, Chung Cheong-rae will defeat Kim Min-seok,” he said.

Chung also told party members during a speech at the BEXCO convention center in Busan that “organization cannot defeat a political wind.”

Candidates exchange accusations of factional betrayal

The close race has intensified a broader conflict over factions within the ruling party.

During a joint campaign speech in Ulsan, Kim called for an end to what he described as a damaging confrontation between factions aligned with President Lee Jae-myung and Chung.

“We must end the vicious cycle of the Lee-Chung conflict,” Kim said.

He said he would refer people responsible for improper factional activity during the campaign to the party’s ethics committee.

Chung responded by invoking Kim’s conduct during the 2002 presidential election.

Kim left Roh’s then-ruling party after joining lawmakers who pushed for Roh to form a unified presidential ticket with independent candidate Chung Mong-joon.

The group was widely criticized by Roh’s supporters as having abandoned the party’s presidential nominee.

“A person who betrays once will betray again,” Chung said, directing the remark at Kim.

The renewed dispute over the episode reflects the extent to which events from the 2002 presidential campaign continue to influence relationships and perceptions inside South Korea’s progressive political camp.

Song also criticized Chung’s attempt to return as party leader.

“The Democratic Party does not permit consecutive terms,” Song said. “Is there really a need to seek another term?”

Ranked-choice votes could determine winner

The Democratic Party is using a preferential voting system in the three-candidate leadership contest.

Voters rank the candidates by preference. Should no candidate receive a majority of first-choice votes, the candidate finishing last will be eliminated and that candidate’s second-choice votes will be redistributed to the remaining two contenders.

The redistribution process will continue until one candidate secures a majority.

The regional percentages released so far include only first-choice votes and do not show how Song’s supporters ranked Chung and Kim as their second choices.

With Chung and Kim each receiving less than 50%, Song’s redistributed votes could determine the winner if the close three-way pattern continues through the remaining regional contests.

The regional campaign will continue Saturday in Jeju and Incheon, followed by Gangwon Province, Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province on Aug. 9.

Voting in the Honam region, covering Gwangju and North and South Jeolla provinces, is scheduled for Aug. 15. The final regional events will take place in Gyeonggi Province and Seoul on Aug. 16.

A 5% strategic-region bonus will apply in the traditionally conservative Yeongnam and Gangwon regions.

The party leader candidates are also scheduled to participate in televised debates on KBS on Wednesday and SBS on Aug. 12.

The final result will be announced at the Democratic Party’s national convention in Daejeon on Aug. 17.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260802010000251

The value of Iran’s currency has risen by more than 15 percent against the US dollar, and its stock market has shattered records in the wake of the memorandum of understanding agreed between the United States and Iran on Sunday.

However, Iranians suffering for years from extremely high inflation and a plunging rial have found little economic relief as the prices of basic goods, such as food, remain high despite the diplomatic breakthrough.

The Iranian economy has suffered due to decades of US sanctions. The economic crisis was exacerbated after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28. As subsequent US naval blockade on Iranian ports further added to the misery of Iranians.

In Ferdowsi Street, the beating heart of Tehran’s foreign exchange market, the scene on Thursday was a stark departure from the panic of recent months. Exchange office boards flashed rapidly changing numbers as foreign currencies, led by the dollar, took a sharp dive.

“We closed our doors just hours before the official announcement of the US-Iran understanding at a rate of 1.8 million rials to the dollar,” Amir, a 35-year-old exchange office worker who asked to remain anonymous, told Al Jazeera. “Now it has fallen to 1.54 million rials, and we expect further declines.”

Amir noted a significant increase in sales volumes although buyers remained scarce as many anticipated the rial would strengthen further, potentially dropping to 1.4 million to the dollar or lower.

The recent gains mark a sharp turnaround. After the outbreak of the war, the exchange rate jumped to a historic peak of 1.9 million rials (190,000 tomans) to the dollar in March before settling at about 1.685 million just before recent attacks carried out despite a ceasefire.

A disconnect in the grocery aisles

Despite the rial’s recovery, a walk through Tehran’s grocery stores reveals a starkly different reality. For Iranians grappling with the economic fallout of crippling sanctions and the US naval blockade, the diplomatic thaw has yet to lower the cost of living.

Reza, a 42-year-old Tehran resident, told Al Jazeera that prices for daily staples like milk, cheese, cooking oil and flour remain unchanged. “They say the dollar dropped, but my shopping basket costs the same as last week,” he said. “This means the agreement hasn’t reached our pockets yet.”

From behind the cash register, 55-year-old shop owner Ramin echoed his customer’s frustration. He explained that while the government continues to distribute subsidised goods like bread, the fluctuations of the free-market dollar do not immediately impact basic food prices.

The value of the dollar on the free market varies from the official exchange rate.

Pointing to a shelf of imported goods, another shopkeeper named Karim noted that items like shampoo, toothpaste and laundry detergent are still locked at inflated prices.

“Distributors say they bought these goods two months ago at the old dollar rates,” Karim explained. “Prices will remain high until the old stock runs out and new goods enter at the lower exchange rates.” He estimated it would take at least two weeks for the market to adjust, meaning Iranians will continue to face compounding inflation in the interim.

Euphoria on the trading floor

While Main Street struggles, Tehran’s stock market is experiencing an unprecedented boom amid expectations of improved economic conditions. The trading floor has been awash in green since the initial leaks of the Washington-Tehran agreement emerged.

On Monday, the main index jumped by a record-breaking 161,000 points in a single session, marking the highest-ever influx of cash from individual investors.

By Tuesday, the market continued its staggering ascent, climbing another 112,000 points to cross the psychological barrier of 5 million, ultimately settling at a historic high of 5.1 million.

Saeed, a 40-year-old investor, called it a “historic day”. He noted that investors are rushing to buy shares in the energy and petrochemical sectors, betting heavily on the resumption of exports and the reopening of global markets.

However, Saeed remained cautiously optimistic. “The stock market is often driven by rumours,” he warned. “I don’t want to repeat the experience of the 2015 nuclear deal when the market soared and then collapsed after the US withdrawal.”

He was referring to US President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the agreement, under which Iran agreed to restrictions on its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.

Stagnation in real estate and electronics

The wait-and-see approach in effect has paralysed other sectors of the economy. In central Tehran’s electronics hubs, 38-year-old shop owner Reza reported that while the prices of imported appliances have dropped in tandem with the dollar, sales have stalled because customers are holding out for steeper discounts.

A similar freeze has gripped the housing market. Nasrin, a 36-year-old real estate agent in northern Tehran, observed that a recent price surge that accompanied the initial truce has now given way to stagnation. Many property owners are clinging to inflated prices, seemingly unaware that the market dynamics have shifted, bringing property transactions to a virtual standstill.

‘Not a magic wand’

For macroeconomic experts, the mixed market signals are entirely expected. Hossein Selahvarzi, the former head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, cautioned that the new agreement is “not a magic wand” capable of instantly fixing years of structural issues in the economy.

While the war severely damaged Iran’s infrastructure, Selahvarzi emphasised that the roots of the country’s economic malaise were firmly planted well before the bombing began.

“War is the enemy of investment, production, trade and public welfare,” Selahvarzi told Al Jazeera. He warned against the analytical mistake of believing that a peace memorandum alone would revive the economy.

“Ending the military confrontation does not necessarily mean the beginning of economic prosperity,” he said, stressing that restoring stability to the business environment remains the country’s most urgent priority.

“What we have before us is a limited and fragile opportunity to correct course and rebuild the economy, and this opportunity could be lost quickly if not managed correctly.”