rates

Kevin Warsh has broken away from US President Donald Trump in his first Fed move, and he has done it with the entire committee behind him.

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The Federal Open Market Committee lifted rates on Wednesday after holding them at 3.5% to 3.75% since December, ending a pause that had grown harder to justify as energy costs pushed prices higher.

Not a single member dissented in a unanimous 12-0 vote.

That matters because the pressure ran in both directions as three regional presidents had voted for a hike in July, while the White House spent months demanding cuts.

Nobody voted for either extreme.

At the time of writing, the market reaction to the decision has been fairly muted likely due to the fact that the hike was widely expected.

A statement stripped to the bone

The Fed’s communication was as striking as its decision.

The statement ran to three short paragraphs, a fraction of the length markets are used to, with no forward guidance and no hedging.

“Inflation remains elevated,” it read, adding that “today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.”

The word “timelier” carries an implicit admission that the return had been too slow.

Then a sentence the Fed almost never writes: “The Committee will deliver price stability.” Not seeks to, not is committed to. Will.

The economic assessment was also confident throughout.

Activity is “expanding at a solid pace”, domestic spending “has been resilient”, productivity growth is “strong” and capital investment “robust”, while job gains “have kept pace with the workforce”.

Uncertainty remains elevated, the Fed said, owing partly to “geopolitical developments”, its formulation for the Iran war.

By describing an economy in good health, the committee removed the argument that higher rates would damage growth, which is precisely the case US President Donald Trump has been making.

Boxed in by the data

The decision had been building for months.

Three regional Fed presidents dissented in July in favour of an increase, the most in one direction since 2016, and several others said afterwards they were ready to move unless inflation eased which it did not.

The Fed’s preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, ran at 3.7% in both June and July, with core inflation at 3.3%. Before the Iran war sent fuel prices climbing, core stood at 3%.

Consumer prices held at 3.4% in August, but the monthly increase of 0.4% was the sharpest since May, evidence the energy shock is feeding through. Inflation has now been above the 2% target for more than five years.

Warsh had effectively committed himself at Jackson Hole in August, telling the symposium he “would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive” and warning that unless underlying inflation moved to target “clearly and at sufficient speed”, the Fed had “work to do”.

Markets took him at his word as the CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a rate hike above 90% before today’s decision.

Defying the president who chose him

US President Donald Trump had spent months demanding the opposite, insisting the country should have the lowest interest rates in the world and choosing Warsh partly on the expectation he would deliver them.

Warsh himself said while campaigning for the job that rates could come down.

The treatment of his predecessor sharpened the stakes as Jerome Powell was publicly attacked for moving too slowly, and the US Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into testimony he gave to Congress.

Today’s decision could also have a restoring effect on the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve as an institution.

The technical details point to a Fed settling in at the new level.

The interest rate on reserve balances rises to 3.90% from Thursday, the primary credit rate to 4%, and standing repurchase operations will run at 4%. Seven regional reserve banks requested the discount rate increase.

The Fed’s new dot plot shows 12 of 18 officials expect another 0.25% hike by year-end, taking rates to 4.125%, while four see rates reaching 4.375%.

The hawkish signal extends well beyond 2026 as 14 officials see rates ending 2027 above today’s level, while the 2028 median stands at 3.9% versus 3.4% expected.

The longer-run rate also rose to 3.2%, suggesting officials increasingly believe neutral rates have moved higher while economists also expect more to follow.

DEVELOPING STORYDEVELOPING STORY,

The 25 basis-point hike is the first raise in three years and comes ahead of critical midterm elections in the United States.

The United States Federal Reserve has said it will raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as inflation, driven by soaring fuel prices amid the US-Iran war, continues to weigh on the economy.

The Fed, which is the central bank of the US, said on Wednesday that it will hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to 4 percent.

It is the first hike in more than three years and comes just weeks before the US midterm elections, despite repeated demands from US President Donald Trump to lower rates.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient,” the Fed said in a statement on Wednesday.

“Inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

After Wednesday’s hike, Fed officials expect one more rate increase this year, according to their quarterly projections.

CME FedWatch, which tracks the likelihood of monetary policy decisions, forecast a 92.3 percent chance of the Fed increasing rates to 3.75 to 4 percent. A week ago, that forecast was a 40 percent chance of a quarter-percent rate increase.

But in the days since, a slew of data shifted those expectations.

For one, consumer prices jumped in August by 0.4 percent, the highest increase in four months. On an annual basis, prices rose 3.4 percent, matching the increase recorded in July, while the job market remains healthy.

Since then, benchmark crude oil prices have continued to soar as strikes in the US-Israel war on Iran have intensified. Brent crude hovered near $109 per barrel on Tuesday.

The average price for a gallon (3.8 litres) of petrol is $4.36, up 14 cents in the past week, and up from $4.06 in the last month, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices.

Diesel, on the other hand, was at $6.31, the highest recorded average and roughly double from a year ago. That, in turn, is expected to further stoke prices as diesel is used in trucks to haul everything from fruits and vegetables to steel and cement.

At the same time, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield broke above the psychologically important 5 percent threshold on Tuesday, hitting 5.02 percent, its highest level in 19 years. The yield serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs, including car loans and home mortgages, and is a bellwether for inflation.

“The economy is in an unusual place,” Michael Klein, professor of international economic affairs at Tufts University’s Fletcher School and executive editor of EconoFact, a nonpartisan economic and social policy publication, as unemployment remains at a comfortable level while higher prices continue to stick, sending inflation beyond the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

“There [has been] a lot of pressure on Chairman Warsh to raise interest rates because of inflation coming in high, and that has been compounded by concerns about Trump’s pressure” as the president has continued to demand that interest rates be lowered, Klein said.

“Higher interest rates tend to weaken the economy… but if the market believes that there’s going to be a rate increase, it’s priced in already as prices move on news, so this won’t be news,” Klein said, adding that should help steady yields.

Frankfurt has tightened again.

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The European Central Bank’s governing council lifted the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.5% on Thursday. It is the second hike since 11 June, when the ECB moved for the first time in three years.

The ECB sets monetary policy for the eurozone through three key interest rates, with the deposit facility rate serving as its main policy benchmark.

The main refinancing rate was lifted to 2.65% and the marginal lending facility to 2.9%.

In its statement, the central bank noted that “the conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period,” while ensuring that “with today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.”

The ECB staff projections continue to estimate that headline inflation will average 3% this year. However, it has revised up the expectations for 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1% respectively, compared with June.

An energy problem, not a demand problem

The decision follows an August inflation reading of 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July and the highest since September 2023.

Energy costs did nearly all the work, with energy inflation jumping to 14.3% from 10.3%, as fighting around the Strait of Hormuz kept crude supply constrained. The problem persists as Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel again on Wednesday due to renewed exchanges of fire between the US and Iran.

Underneath, the picture is calmer.

Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, actually fell to 2.4% from 2.5% in August, while services inflation, the component most sensitive to wages, dropped to 3% from 3.3%. There is still little sign that expensive energy is spreading into the rest of the economy.

That distinction has been central to the ECB’s own thinking.

In a paper published earlier this month, its economists found that adverse energy supply factors accounted for around 90% of the rise in energy inflation between January and May of this year.

“This time the energy supply shock dominates, while demand and public policy stimulus have minor roles,” the economists wrote, contrasting it with the 2021-22 surge that prompted a far more aggressive response.

A single rate for very different economies

The eurozone inflation average conceals a wide spread.

August inflation ran at 4.5% in Spain, 2.9% in Germany and 2.7% in France, three economies facing the same energy shock with markedly different outcomes.

Growth complicates matters further.

The bloc has held up better than expected, but resilience is not overheating, and even at 2.5% the deposit rate remains within the range the ECB considers neutral. Going further would mean deciding that policy must actively restrain the economy.

Christine Lagarde had signalled this move in July, when the council held rates but instructed staff to model oil and gas scenarios ahead of September.

“The burden of proof is on data,” Lagarde said then, adding that “the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out.”

Thursday’s decision comes alongside fresh staff projections, though their cut-off date falls roughly two weeks before the meeting, meaning neither the latest leg higher in oil nor the surge in European government bond yields to 15-year highs will be reflected.

Attention now turns to Frankfurt’s peers.

The Federal Reserve will announce on 16 September and the Bank of Japan on the 18, with both expected to consider hikes of their own.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England will decide on 17 September and is expected to hold rates as it currently maintains a much higher benchmark than the rest at 3.75%.

Young Brits are swapping traditional beach-day pastimes for paddleboards, surfing and a dip in the sea – but they still love one thing

Gen Z is redefining the great British day at the seaside, replacing traditional favourites like arcade games and crazy golf with paddleboarding and surfing. A poll of 2,000 adults found 11% of Gen Z consider paddleboarding to be essential to the perfect day by the sea, compared to just 7% of Millennials and 3% of Boomers. They were also far more likely to take a dip, with 38% saying swimming in the sea is a beach day priority.

Classic seaside pastimes appear to be losing their appeal among younger adults as 74% would skip arcade games, and 87% would happily avoid a round of crazy golf.

But seaside traditions such as tucking into fish and chips, a picnic and coastal walks were still among the most treasured experiences across all those surveyed.

Bryony Walker from Walker’s Shortbread, which brought its newly launched Wee Chunkies bites to a seaside pop-up on Brighton beach, said: “While the research shows beachgoers still crave the classic seaside experiences, it’s interesting to see what now makes up the ideal day at the beach.

“Activities like paddleboarding are becoming more popular with younger generations, but what remains constant is a dip in the sea.

“The coast holds special appeal, combining nostalgia, quality family time and the simple joys of a well-packed picnic, fresh air and time outdoors.”

The study, conducted through OnePoll, revealed that 15 minutes is considered the perfect amount of time to spend in the water.

Following the dip, beachgoers enjoy wrapping themselves in a toasty towel (49%) or tucking into a warm sweet snack to restore energy levels (18%) – a tradition the Scots refer to as a ‘Shivery Bite’ – something only 9% of Brits are familiar with.

Due to the unfamiliarity with this Scottish phrase, Walker’s Shortbread decided to introduce the Shivery Bite concept to Bank Holiday beachgoers and swimmers along Brighton’s bustling seafront.

Bryony Walker added: “The insights have revealed the nation’s ideal beach day, with fresh sea air, sunshine, blue skies and that essential paddle in the water. “After a summer of intense heat, beachgoers are craving a moment of relief, whether it’s a colder coastal breeze or cosy comfort food.

“Few things beat wrapping up after a swim or enjoying a warm treat, something in Scotland we call a ‘Shivery Bite’, and our new shortbread offering is exactly for this moment, best served warm, to help make the most of the post-dip feeling.”

THE NATIONS PERFECT BEACH DAY:

1. Warm sunshine
2. Having ice cream
3. Coastal walks
4. Having fish and chips
5. Blue skies
6. Walking barefoot in sand
7. Having a paddle in the sea
8. Calm sea
9. Having a picnic
10. Take family photos
11. Visiting a pier
12. Sunbathing
13. Swimming in the sea
14. Beach snacks
15. Building sandcastles
16. Reading
17. Arcade games
18. Sharing snacks
19. Rock pooling
20. Seaside souvenirs
21. Skimming stones
22. Collecting rocks
23. Play crazy golf
24. Taking naps
25. Hot foods to warm you up after swimming.