Policymakers at the Bank of England are widely expected to hold interest rates at 4% following their final meeting before the chancellor’s Budget.
Some Bank watchers have suggested that the latest inflation data could strengthen the case for a cut, but most commentators think such a move is more likely in December.
In September, the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey said he still expected further rate cuts, but the pace would be “more uncertain”.
The Bank’s base rate has an impact on the cost of borrowing for individuals and businesses, and also on returns on savings.
Uncertainty over pace of cuts
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will make its latest announcement at 12:00 GMT with most analysts predicting a hold.
The Bank of England has reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points every three months since August last year. However, that cycle is widely expected to be broken this time.
Members of the MPC will be closely considering the latest economic data on rising prices, as well as jobs and wages as they cast their vote on interest rates.
The rate of inflation in September was 3.8%, well above the Bank’s 2% target, but lower than expected. Within that data, food and drink prices rose at their slowest rate in more than a year.
That has eased some of the squeeze on family finances, and also led to some analysts, including at banking giants Barclays and Goldman Sachs, to predict a cut in interest rates this month to 3.75%.
They expect a split in the vote among the nine-member committee. For the first time, the views of each individual on the MPC will be published alongside the wider decision.
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said the market was giving a one in three chance of a rate cut to 3.75%.
“The odds are still firmly in favour of a hold,” she said.
All eyes on Budget
Members of the MPC will be fully aware of the potential implications of the Budget which will be delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on 26 November.
The case for a cut in interest rates in December could be boosted if the Budget includes substantial tax rises that do not add to inflation.
The chancellor, in a speech on Tuesday, said measures in the Budget “will be focused on getting inflation falling and creating the conditions for interest rate cuts”.
However, detail remains thin until the Budget is delivered and more economic data will be published before the Bank’s next meeting in December that could sway MPC members’ thinking.
“It’s possible Rachel Reeves’ surprise press conference on Tuesday was partly a cry for help to the Bank of England,” AJ Bell’s Ms Hewson said.
“By promising to push down on inflation, she might have been signalling that the Bank didn’t have to wait until after the Budget to cut rates. Whether they do or not is a finely balanced call.”
The Bank’s interest rates heavily influence borrowing costs for homeowners – either directly for those on tracker rates, or more indirectly for fixed rates.
In recent days and weeks, many lenders have been cutting the interest rates on their new, fixed deals as they compete for custom, and in anticipation of future central bank rate cuts.
Savers, however, would likely see a fall in the returns they receive if the Bank cuts the benchmark rate on Thursday or in December.
Rachel Springall, from financial information service Moneyfacts, said many savers were feeling “demoralised” as a result of falling returns and still relatively high inflation, which reduces the spending power of their savings.
US states have relied on vaccine mandates since the 1800s, when a smallpox vaccine offered the first successful protection against a disease that had killed millions.
More than a century later, Florida’s top public health official said vaccine requirements are unethical and unnecessary for high vaccination rates.
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“You can still have high vaccination numbers, just like the other countries who don’t do any mandates like Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the [United Kingdom], most of Canada,” Florida Surgeon General Dr Joseph Ladapo said on October 16. “No mandates, really comparable vaccine uptake.”
It’s true that some countries without vaccine requirements have high vaccination rates, on a par with the United States. But experts say that fact alone does not make it a given that the US would follow the same pattern if it eliminates school vaccination requirements.
Florida state law currently requires students in public and private schools from daycare through 12th grade to have specific immunisations. Families can opt out for religious or medical reasons. About 11 percent of Florida kindergarteners are not immunised, recent data shows. With Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s backing, Ladapo is pushing to end the state’s school vaccine requirements.
The countries Ladapo cited – Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the UK and parts of Canada – don’t have broad vaccine requirements, research shows. Their governments recommend such protections, though, and their healthcare systems offer conveniently accessible vaccines, for example.
UNICEF, a United Nations agency which calls itself the “global go-to for data on children”, measures how well countries provide routine childhood immunisations by looking at infant access to the third dose in a DTaP vaccine series that protects against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (whooping cough).
In 2024, UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that 94 percent of one-year-olds in the United States had received three doses of the DTaP vaccine. That’s compared with Canada at 92 percent, Denmark at 96 percent, Norway at 97 percent, Sweden at 96 percent and the UK at 92 percent.
Universal, government-provided healthcare and high trust in government likely influence those countries’ vaccine uptake, experts have said. In the US, many people can’t afford time off work or the cost of a doctor’s visit. There’s also less trust in the government. These factors could prevent the US from having similar participation rates should the government eliminate school vaccine mandates.
Universal healthcare, stronger government trust increase vaccination
Multiple studies have linked vaccine mandates and increased vaccination rates. Although these studies found associations between the two, the research does not prove that mandates alone cause increased vaccination rates. Association is not the same as causation.
Other factors that can affect vaccination rates often accompany mandates, including local efforts to improve vaccination access, increase documentation and combat vaccine hesitancy and refusal.
The countries Ladapo highlighted are high-income countries with policies that encourage vaccination and make vaccines accessible.
In Sweden, for example, where all vaccinations are voluntary, the vaccines included in national programmes are offered for free, according to the Public Health Agency of Sweden.
Preventive care is more accessible and routine for everyone in countries such as Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK with universal healthcare systems, said Dr Megan Berman of the University of Texas Medical Branch’s Sealy Institute for Vaccine Sciences.
“In the US, our healthcare system is more fragmented, and access to care can depend on insurance or cost,” she said.
More limited healthcare access, decreased institutional trust and anti-vaccine activists’ influence set the US apart from those other countries, experts said.
Some of these other countries’ cultural norms favour the collective welfare of others, which means people are more likely to get vaccinated to support the community, Berman said.
Anders Hviid, an epidemiologist at Statens Serum Institut in Copenhagen, told The Atlantic that it’s misguided to compare Denmark’s health situation with the US – in part because Danish citizens strongly trust the government to enact policies in the public interest.
By contrast, as of 2024, fewer than one in three people in the US over age 15 reported having confidence in the national government, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a group of advanced, industrialised nations. That’s the lowest percentage of any of the countries Ladapo mentioned.
“The effectiveness of recommendations depends on faith in the government and scientific body that is making the recommendations,” said Dr Richard Rupp, of the University of Texas Medical Branch’s Sealy Institute for Vaccine Sciences.
Without mandates, vaccine education would be even more important, experts say
Experts said they believe US vaccination rates would fall if states ended school vaccine mandates.
Maintaining high vaccination rates without mandates would require health officials to focus on other policies, interventions and messaging, said Samantha Vanderslott, the leader of the Oxford Vaccine Group’s Vaccines and Society Unit, which researches attitudes and behaviour towards vaccines.
That could be especially difficult given that the United States’s top health official, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, has a long history of anti-vaccine activism and scepticism about vaccines.
That makes the US an outlier, Vanderslott said.
“Governments tend to promote/support vaccination as a public health good,” she said. It is unusual for someone with Kennedy’s background to hold a position where he has the power to spread misinformation, encourage vaccine hesitancy and reduce mainstream vaccine research funding and access, Vanderslott said.
Most people decide to follow recommendations based on their beliefs about a vaccine’s benefits and their child’s vulnerability to disease, Rupp said. That means countries that educate the public about vaccines and illnesses will have better success with recommendations, he said.
Ultimately, experts said that just because something worked elsewhere doesn’t mean it will work in the United States.
Matt Hitchings, a biostatistics professor at the University of Florida’s College of Public Health and Health Professions, said a vaccine policy’s viability could differ from country to country. Vaccination rates are influenced by a host of factors.
“If I said that people in the UK drink more tea than in the US and have lower rates of certain cancers, would that be convincing evidence that drinking tea reduces cancer risk?” Hitchings said.
Google Translate was used throughout the research of this story to translate websites and statements into English.
The United States Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 – 4.00 percent, amid signs of a slowing labour market and continued pressure on consumer prices.
The cut, announced on Wednesday, marks the US central bank’s second rate cut this year.
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“Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated,” the Fed said in a statement.
“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.”
The cuts were largely in line with expectations. Earlier on Wednesday, CME Fed Watch — which tracks the likelihood of rate cuts — said there was a 97.8 percent probability of rate cuts.
After the September cut, economists had largely been expecting two additional rate cuts for the rest of this year. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley, among others, forecast one more 25-basis-point reduction by year’s end following Wednesday’s cut. Bank of America Global Research is the only major firm that is not anticipating another 25-basis-point cut in 2025.
“The Fed has a challenging line to walk; lower interest rates to support labour markets and growth, or raise them to tamp down inflation. For now, they are taking a cautious approach tilted a bit towards the growth concerns,” Michael Klein, professor of international economic affairs at The Fletcher School at Tufts University in Massachusetts, told Al Jazeera.
Despite forecasts, Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell isn’t necessarily inevitable.
“We haven’t made a decision about December,” Powell told reporters in a press conference.
“We remain well-positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.”
Government shutdown implications
The cuts come as economic data becomes increasingly scarce amid the ongoing government shutdown, now in its 29th day as of Wednesday, making it the second-longest in US history, behind the 35-day shutdown during the first presidency of Donald Trump in late 2018 and early 2019.
Because of the shutdown, the Department of Labor did not release the September jobs report, which was scheduled for October 3. The only major government economic data released this month was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of goods and services and is a key measure of inflation. The CPI rose 0.3 percent in September on a month-over-month basis to an inflation rate of 3 percent.
That data was released because the Social Security Administration required it to calculate cost-of-living adjustments for 2026. As a result, Social Security beneficiaries will receive a 2.8 percent increase in payments compared to 2025.
The shutdown, however, could have a bigger impact on next month’s central bank decision as the Labor Department is currently unable to compile the data needed for its November reports.
However, amid the limited government data, private trackers are showing a slowdown.
“We are not going to be able to have the detailed feel of things, but I think if there were a significant or material change in the economy one way or another, I think we would pick that up,” Powell said.
Consumer confidence lags
Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low, according to The Conference Board’s report that was released on Tuesday.
The data showed that lower-income earners – those making less than $75,000 a year – are less confident about the economy as fears of job scarcity loom. This comes only days after several large corporations announced waves of layoffs.
On Wednesday, Paramount cut 2,000 people from its workforce. On Tuesday, Amazon cut 14,000 corporate jobs. Last week, big box retailer Target cut 1,800 jobs. This, as furloughs and layoffs weigh on government workers. The US government is the nation’s largest employer.
Those making more than $200,000 annually remain fairly confident and are leading consumer spending that is keeping the economy afloat, according to The Conference Board.
Pressures both on consumer spending and the labour market are largely driven by tariffs weighing on consumers and businesses.
US markets are ticking up on the rate cut. The Nasdaq is up 0.5, the S&P 500 is up 0.1, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 0.26 as of 2pm in New York (18:00 GMT).
Certificates of deposit (CDs) might seem like a good place to keep your money, especially with interest rates on the decline. But the truth is that in most cases, your cash is better off elsewhere.
If you’re looking for flexibility and long-term growth — or if you’re carrying high-interest debt — there are much better uses for your money. Here’s what to know.
1. High-yield savings accounts are more flexible, with similar returns
Right now, our favorite high-yield savings accounts (HYSAs) are paying APYs that rival top CDs — and you don’t need to lock up your money to earn them.
Just like traditional savings accounts, HYSAs let you access your money anytime, and they’re FDIC-insured up to $250,000. The best banks also don’t charge monthly fees or have account minimums.
Add it all up, and it’s pretty clear: HYSAs are the perfect place to store your emergency fund and short-term savings.
For money you plan on investing for the long haul, a CD isn’t the best option, either.
Consider this: Over the last 30 years, the average return of the U.S. stock market was 9% per year, as measured by the S&P 500 Index — more than double the rate of the best CDs.
CDs might sound appealing because they have a guaranteed return — but still, that return is limited. Over the course of years and decades, something like an S&P 500 index fund will almost definitely earn more.
Finally, if you have high-interest credit card debt, even the best CDs can’t help you put a dent in it.
That’s because the average credit card APR is around 21%, according to the Federal Reserve. Saving with a CD while carrying high-interest debt is always a losing bet.
Make sure to pay off any and all debt before you think about a CD. If you owe credit card debt with a 21% APR, you could think of it as getting a guaranteed 21% return for paying it off.
Once your high-interest debt is gone and your emergency fund is in place, then you can start looking into CDs or other savings tools.
If I were closer to retirement, it would be a different story.
In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time this year. And there’s a good chance we’ll see at least one more rate cut before 2025 comes to a close.
In light of this, you may be inclined to put some of your money into a CD before rates fall further. And if you’re near or in retirement, I’d say that’s probably a good idea.
Image source: Getty Images.
But I’m not planning to open any CDs this year despite rates still being around 4%. Although that’s a good return given the risk profile, it’s not right for me because of where I am in my retirement savings journey.
The problem with CDs
At first, putting money into a CD might seem like a no-brainer. You can lock in a virtually risk-free return on your money in the ballpark of 4%, which might seem like a great deal if you’re someone who dreads stock market volatility.
The problem with CDs, though, is that they probably won’t pay you enough in the long run to outpace inflation. And you need your retirement savings to beat inflation so that by the time your career wraps up, you’ll have a large enough nest egg to live comfortably.
Imagine you’re able to get a 4% return on a $10,000 CD over the next 30 years (it’s unlikely since rates are still near a high, but this is just to illustrate a point). At the end of that savings window, you’d potentially be sitting on a little more than $32,400.
Meanwhile, let’s say you were to invest $10,000 in a portfolio of stocks or an S&P 500index fund. There’s a good chance you’d score an 8% yearly return, since that’s a bit below the stock market’s average. In that case, after 30 years, you’d be looking at a little more than $100,600. That’s more than three times the total CDs would give you in this example.
And yes, this is just one example. The point, however, is that if you’re in the process of building wealth for retirement, CDs are generally not a good bet.
It makes sense to put money into CDs when you’re saving for a near-term goal and can’t risk losing money in the stock market. For example, if you’re aiming to buy a home in early 2027, go ahead and put your current down payment savings into a 12-month CD. It wouldn’t be safe to put that money into the stock market since you’ll be needing it pretty soon.
However, if you’re retiring in 20 or 30 years, then it doesn’t make sense to put your money into CDs. And it’s for this reason that I’m not opening CDs right now, either.
I’m not close to retirement age, so I still need my money to grow at a decent pace. To put it another way, a 4% return is not one I’d be happy about in my investment portfolio, which is why I’m sticking to my strategy of loading up on stocks and various ETFs.
CDs are great for near and current retirees
While it doesn’t make sense for me to put money into CDs right now, I have different advice if you’re someone who’s on the cusp of retirement or already retired. In that case, I’d say it could make sense to lock in a CD before rates fall.
It’s a smart idea for people who are close to or in retirement to have one to two years’ worth of living expenses in cash. That way, if the stock market slumps and the value of your investments drops, you won’t have to sell assets at a loss to get access to the money you need to pay your bills.
I would never recommend having all of your cash in CDs, but it’s not a bad idea to start a CD ladder. This means opening a series of CDs that come due at regular intervals — for example, every three to four months, or whatever cadence works best for you. That way, you can earn a guaranteed return on some of your money while also ensuring that it’s available to you at regular intervals.
All told, CDs have their purpose. But they’re not a good choice for me right now. And if you’re years away from retirement, they may not be right for you, either.
Business rates are a tax charged on most commercial properties, such as shops, offices, pubs, and warehouses.Credit: Getty
At the time, the Government proposed raising business rates on the biggest retail properties with values over £500,000.
This would allow for a discount on rates for small retail and hospitality premises to be permanent.
The government has not yet set the rates, but changes are due to take effect in April 2026.
But the Co-op is now urging the Government to commit to the maximum levels of relief for smaller stores in the upcoming Autumn Budget on November 24.
Research conducted by the supermarket found one in eight small high street business owners will be at risk of shutting down if reforms are not delivered.
A further 10% of small said they would need to lay off staff.
Shirine Khoury-Haq, Co-op group chief executive, said: “The proposed system would improve the financial situation of 99% of retailers.
“How much they are protected from tax rises depends on decisions made in this Budget. To boost local economies, create jobs and provide community cohesion, we need inclusive growth.”
“That means supporting the businesses on the corners, in the precincts, on the parades and the high streets of every community.
” In order for them to not only survive, but to thrive, the government has to commit to the maximum levels of relief.”
JD Sports Shuts 13 Stores Amid Sales Slump: What’s Next for the High Street?
It comes as many larger retailers have voiced concerns over plans to increase business rates on larger stores, arguing the move could make them unprofitable or lead to price hikes.
In August, a letter signed by Morrisons, Aldi and JD Sports, warned that further tax rises on businesses could result in the Labour government breaking its manifesto pledge to provide “high living standards”.
It reads: “As retailers, we have done everything we can to shield our customers from the worst inflationary pressures but as they persist, it is becoming more and more challenging for us to absorb the cost pressures we face.”
Many businesses have already seen their labour costs rise thanks to the rate of employer national insurance being increased in last year’s Budget.
The Treasury expects the new rates system will only impact the top 1% of properties.
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We are creating a fairer business rates system to protect the high street, support investment, and level the playing field by introducing permanently lower tax rates for retail, hospitality, and leisure properties from April that will be sustainably funded by a new, higher rate on less than 1% of the most valuable business properties.
“Unlike the current relief for these properties, there will be no cash cap on the new lower tax rates, and we have set out our long-term plans to address ‘cliff edges’ in the system to support small businesses to expand.”
RETAIL PAIN IN 2025
The British Retail Consortium has predicted that the Treasury’s hike to employer NICs will cost the retail sector £2.3billion.
Research by the British Chambers of Commerce shows that more than half of companies plan to raise prices by early April.
A survey of more than 4,800 firms found that 55% expect prices to increase in the next three months, up from 39% in a similar poll conducted in the latter half of 2024.
Three-quarters of companies cited the cost of employing people as their primary financial pressure.
The Centre for Retail Research (CRR) has also warned that around 17,350 retail sites are expected to shut down this year.
It comes on the back of a tough 2024 when 13,000 shops closed their doors for good, already a 28% increase on the previous year.
Professor Joshua Bamfield, director of the CRR said: “The results for 2024 show that although the outcomes for store closures overall were not as poor as in either 2020 or 2022, they are still disconcerting, with worse set to come in 2025.”
Professor Bamfield has also warned of a bleak outlook for 2025, predicting that as many as 202,000 jobs could be lost in the sector.
“By increasing both the costs of running stores and the costs on each consumer’s household it is highly likely that we will see retail job losses eclipse the height of the pandemic in 2020.”
One account that’s turning heads is the LendingClub LevelUp Savings account. It not only offers a killer rate (4.20% APY with $250+ in monthly deposits) but also includes a debit card tied to your savings account. Read our full LendingClub LevelUp Savings review here for more details.
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I’m less tempted to dip into savings
A cool side benefit I’ve learned since setting up my HYSA is that I’m way less tempted to dip into my savings when it’s kept at a completely separate bank.
When all my money is piled together in one account, it’s easy to blur the line between spending and savings. But with a dedicated HYSA, the barrier is enough to keep me disciplined. I know the cash is there if I really need it, but it’s not staring me in the face every time I log into my regular banking app.
Plus, my high-yield savings account is FDIC insured up to $250,000. So I’ve got both mental security and financial security in one place.
It doesn’t cost me anything to keep
Fintech banks are amazing these days. They don’t nickel-and-dime you like traditional banks tend to do.
My HYSA has no monthly fees, no balance requirements, and no surprise charges that pop up randomly. So even if my bank balance drops to $0 for a few months, it won’t cost me anything to keep the account open. And all the interest I earn is pure profit.
The tech is better, too. My bank’s mobile app is super clean, simple, and doing transfers is really easy.
It’s still the best home for short-term cash
At the end of the day, my HYSA is where I keep money I can’t afford to risk. I don’t want to invest it because I might need it in a pinch.
Since it’s sitting idle most of the year, I want it earning the highest APY possible. Even if the Fed continues to drop rates and we get down to a measly 1.00%-2.00% APY in the next couple years, it’s still better than earning almost zero in a checking account.
This week, the Trump administration announced that it was taking “bold action” to address the “epidemic” of autism spectrum disorder — starting with a new safety label on Tylenol and other acetaminophen products that suggests a link to autism. The scientific evidence for doing so is weak, researchers said.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said federal officials “will be uncompromising and relentless in our search for answers” and that they soon would be “closely examining” the role of vaccines, whose alleged link to autism has been widely discredited.
Kennedy has long argued that rising diagnoses among U.S. children must mean more exposure to some outside influence: a drug, a chemical, a toxin, a vaccine.
“One of the things that I think that we need to move away from today is this ideology that … the autism prevalence increase, the relentless increases, are simply artifacts of better diagnoses, better recognition or changing diagnostic criteria,” Kennedy said in April.
Kennedy is correct that autism spectrum disorder rates have risen steadily in the U.S. since the U.S. Centers for Disease Control began tracking them, from 1 in 150 8-year-olds in 2000, to 1 in 31 in 2022, the most recent year for which numbers are available.
But physicians, researchers and psychologists say it is impossible to interpret this increase without acknowledging two essential facts: The diagnostic definition of autism has greatly expanded to include a much broader range of human behaviors, and we look for it more often than we used to.
“People haven’t changed that much,” said Alan Gerber, a pediatric neuropsychologist at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C., “but how we talk about them, how we describe them, how we categorize them has actually changed a lot over the years.”
Defining ‘autism’
The term “autism” first appeared in the scientific literature around World War II, when two psychiatrists in different countries independently chose that word to describe two different groups of children.
In 1938, Austrian pediatrician Hans Asperger used it to describe child patients at his Vienna clinic who were verbal, often fluently so, with unusual social behaviors and at-times obsessive focus on very specific subjects.
Five years later, U.S. psychiatrist Leo Kanner published a paper about a group of children at his clinic at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore who were socially withdrawn, rigid in their thinking and extremely sensitive to stimuli like bright lights or loud noises. Most also had limited verbal language ability.
Both Asperger and Kanner chose the same word to describe these overlapping behaviors: autism. (They borrowed the term from an earlier psychiatrist’s description of extreme social withdrawal in schizophrenic patients.)
This doesn’t mean children never acted this way before. It was just the first time doctors started using that word to describe a particular set of child behaviors.
For the next few decades, many children who exhibited what we understand today to be autistic traits were labeled as having conditions that have ceased to exist as formal diagnoses, like “mental retardation,” “childhood psychosis” or “schizophrenia, childhood type.”
Autism debuted as its own diagnosis in the 1980 third edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, the American Psychiatric Assn.’s diagnostic bible. It described an autistic child as one who, by the age of 2½, showed impaired communication, unusual responses to their environment and a lack of interest in other people.
As the decades went on, the DSM definition of autism broadened.
The fourth edition, published in 1994, named additional behaviors: impaired relationships, struggles with nonverbal communication and speech patterns different from those of non-autistic, or neurotypical, peers.
It also included a typo that would turn out to be a crucial driver of diagnoses, wrote cultural anthropologist Roy Richard Grinker in his book “Unstrange Minds: Remapping the World of Autism.”
The DSM’s printed definition of autism included any child who displayed impairments in social interaction, communication “or” behavior. It was supposed to say social interaction, communication “and” behavior.
The error went uncorrected for six years, and the impact appeared profound. In 1995 an estimated 1 in every 500 children was diagnosed with autism. By 2000, when the CDC formally began tracking diagnoses (and the text was corrected), it was 1 in every 150.
Reaching underserved communities
In 2007, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommended for the first time that all children be screened for autism between the ages of 18 and 24 months as part of their regular checkups. Prior to that, autism was diagnosed somewhat haphazardly. Not all pediatricians were familiar with the earliest indicators or used the same criteria to determine whether a child should be further evaluated.
Then in 2013, the fifth edition of the DSM took what had previously been four separate conditions — autistic disorder, Asperger’s disorder, childhood disintegrative disorder and pervasive developmental disorder — and collapsed them all into a single diagnosis: autism spectrum disorder.
The diagnostic criteria for ASD included a broad range of social, communication and sensory interpretation differences that, crucially, could be identified at any time in a child’s life. The term was no longer limited only to children whose development lagged noticeably behind that of their peers.
Since that definition was adopted, U.S. schools have become more proactive about referring a greater range of children for neurodevelopmental evaluations. The new DSM language also helped educators and clinicians better understand what was keeping some kids in disadvantaged communities from thriving.
“In the past, [autism was] referred to as a ‘white child’s disability,’ because you found so few Black and brown children being identified,” said Shanter Alexander, an assistant professor of school psychology at Howard University. Children of color who struggled with things like behavioral disruptions, attention deficits or language delays, she said, were often diagnosed with intellectual disabilities or behavioral disorders.
In a sign that things have shifted, the most recent CDC survey for the first time found a higher prevalence of autism in kids of color than in white children: 3.66%, 3.82% and 3.30% for Black, Asian and Latino children, respectively, compared with 2.77% of white children.
“A lot of people think, ‘Oh, no, what does this mean? This is terrible.’ But it’s actually really positive. It means that we have been better at diagnosing Latino children [and] other groups too,” said Kristina Lopez, an associate professor at Arizona State University who studies autism in underserved communities.
The severity issue
An autism diagnosis today can apply to people who are able to graduate from college, hold professional positions and speak eloquently about their autism, as well as people who require 24-hour care and are not able to speak at all.
It includes people who were diagnosed when they were toddlers developing at a noticeably different pace from their peers, and people who embraced a diagnosis of autism in adulthood as the best description of how they relate to the world. Diagnoses for U.S. adults ages 26 to 34 alone increased by 450% between 2011 and 2022, according to one large study published last year in the Journal of the American Medical Assn.
Kennedy was not correct when he said in April that “most cases now are severe.”
A 2016 review of CDC data found that approximately 26.7% of 8-year-olds with autism had what some advocates refer to as “profound autism,” the end of the spectrum that often includes seriously disabling behaviors such as seizures, self-injurious behavior and intellectual disability.
The rate of children with profound autism has remained virtually unchanged since the CDC started tracking it, said Maureen Durkin, a professor of population health science and pediatrics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Indeed, the highest rate of new diagnoses has been among children with mild limitations, she said.
For many researchers and advocates, the Trump administration’s focus on autism has provoked mixed emotions. Many have lobbied for years for more attention for this condition and the people whose lives it affects.
Now it has arrived, thanks to an administration that has played up false information while cutting support for science.
“They have attempted to panic the public with the notion of an autism epidemic as a threat to the nation, when no such epidemic actually exists — rather, more people are being diagnosed with autism today because we have broader diagnostic criteria and do a better job detecting it,” said Colin Killick, executive director of the Autistic Self Advocacy Network. “It is high time that this administration stops spreading misinformation about autism, and starts enacting policies that would actually benefit our community.”
This article was reported with the support of the USC Annenberg Center for Health Journalism’s National Fellowship’s Kristy Hammam Fund for Health Journalism.
Home Depot’s multiyear downturn could be nearing an end.
When Home Depot(HD -0.68%) talks, the stock market listens. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average component is a bellwether for consumer spending and the housing market.
In recent years, Home Depot’s results have disappointed. Earnings have been falling, and fiscal 2025 same-store sales are expected to grow by just 1%. But that sluggish growth could quickly fade into the rearview mirror.
In an effort to maximize employment and reduce inflation to 2% over the long run, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are cutting interest rates by 0.25% — citing a weak labor market and “somewhat elevated” inflation. More cuts could be in the cards to boost consumer spending and avoid a recession. Although artificial intelligence (AI) has been driving the stock market to record highs, U.S. gross domestic product growth is projected to be just 1.6% in 2025 and under 2% every year through 2028 — illustrating weakness in the broader economy.
Here’s why an interest rate cut is great news for Home Depot, and whether the dividend stock is a buy now.
Image source: Getty Images.
A much-needed jolt
Higher interest rates have a significant impact on consumer spending, particularly on discretionary goods, services, and travel. When money is more readily available for borrowing, consumers may opt for a car loan or a mortgage because the monthly payment is lower. Or they may finance a home improvement project. In this vein, lower interest rates can lead to an increase in renovation projects, which benefits Home Depot.
There’s a big difference between going to Home Depot for a few spare parts to fix an appliance and redoing an entire room or section of a house. And Home Depot’s poor results suggest that a lot of customers are putting off big projects until conditions improve.
On its August earnings call (second quarter 2025), Home Depot said that lower interest rates would help boost demand and provide relief for mortgages. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said the following:
When we talk generally though to our customers, each of our sets of consumers and pros, the number one reason for deferring the large project is general economic uncertainty, that is larger than prices of projects, of labor availability, all the various things we’ve talked about in the past. By a wide margin, economic uncertainty is number one.
The prospect of good-paying jobs and lower interest rates could certainly give Home Depot’s residential business a lift. However, the company has also been investing heavily in its professional and commercial contractor business. In June 2024, Home Depot completed its $18.25 billion acquisition of SRS Distribution, expanding its home improvement and construction business. SRS specializes in selling roofing products to contractors — which provides cross-selling opportunities with Home Depot’s retail outlets.
Home Depot made the SRS acquisition in the middle of an industrywide downturn — a sign that it is investing for the long term. SRS essentially makes Home Depot even more of a coiled spring for the next cyclical expansion period, potentially amplifying the benefits the company will feel from lower interest rates.
Taking a home improvement rebound for granted
The market is forward-looking and cares more about where businesses are headed than where they have been. And unfortunately for investors considering Home Depot, the stock is already priced as if interest rates will continue to fall.
As you can see in the following chart, Home Depot’s earnings were on the rise leading up to the pandemic, then entered a new phase during the pandemic as consumers accelerated spending on do-it-yourself home improvement projects, driven by low interest rates.
But Home Depot’s earnings have been ticking down in recent years even though its stock price is around an all-time high — suggesting that investors are looking past the company’s near-term struggles in anticipation of a recovery.
In February, Home Depot raised its dividend by the lowest amount in 15 years and issued a dire warning to investors about a prolonged downturn in the home improvement industry. So it could take several interest rate cuts to really move the needle on consumer spending at Home Depot.
In the meantime, the stock is on the expensive side, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 and a forward P/E of 27.7 compared to a 10-year median P/E of just 23. Meaning that Home Depot’s earnings would need to grow 20% faster than its stock price just for the valuation to come back down to historical averages over the last decade.
A quality company at a premium valuation
Home Depot is an excellent company, but it is already priced for a recovery. So the stock isn’t a screaming buy now.
The good news is that Home Depot could still be a good buy for long-term investors who believe in the company’s potential for store expansions, same-store sales growth, and that the SRS acquisition will pay off. If Home Depot enters a multiyear period of double-digit earnings growth, its valuation could quickly come down, making the stock more attractive.
Home Depot could also reaccelerate its dividend growth rate, building on its 16-year track record of consecutive annual dividend raises. Home Depot yields 2.2% — which is better than the 1.2% yield of the S&P 500.
All told, Home Depot isn’t a no-brainer buy now because the stock price has run up ahead of anticipated rate cuts. But it’s still a decent buy for long-term investors.
These stocks will benefit in a big way from heightened economic activity.
It wasn’t a big surprise that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cut interest rates at the Fed’s September meeting on Wednesday. In July, he implied in no uncertain terms that a rate cut was coming, and the likelihood was that it was going be a quarter of a point. That’s what has happened. The governing body also signaled that two more cuts would come at its next two meetings, in October and December.
Powell noted that there are mixed signals in the economy, which made it a difficult decision. Normally, the Fed keeps rates high until inflation backs down, and right now, inflation is higher than the Fed wants it to be. Nonetheless, the once-strong job market is beginning to falter, and a reduction in interest rates should stimulate the economy and employment opportunities.
A more active economy with more jobs and money flowing is great news for most businesses, and some companies will feel the change more acutely. Visa(V 1.19%), SoFi Technologies(SOFI 4.96%), and Carnival(CCL -2.86%) (CUK -2.67%), are three stocks that should benefit in a big way.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Visa: The best indicator of spending habits
Visa is the largest credit card company in the world, and its performance tells the story of the economy to some degree. Because it’s a credit card network, its processed volume is a strong indication of how people are spending. And because it targets a wide range of demographics, its message is fairly universal.
The purpose of cutting interest rates is to boost the economy, and Visa is a major beneficiary of higher spending. Visa’s core business is providing the network, or infrastructure, that moves money from a customer’s partnering bank to a merchant, taking a small cut of each transaction. Although it has branched out to other services, they mostly center around different ways of moving money. More money flowing means more money for Visa.
It has been performing well despite the higher interest rates. In the 2025 fiscal third quarter (ended June 30), revenue increased 14% year over year, and payments volume was up 8%. It’s highly profitable, since it has a simple, low-cost model, and net income increased 8% over last year in the quarter.
Lower interest rates should further boost Visa’s earnings, benefiting this Warren Buffett-backed stock. Visa is a solid long-term investment, offering value to most portfolios.
2. SoFi: A young bank disruptor
Banks have a two-sided relationship with interest rates. They make more money on net interest income when rates are higher, but they also suffer from higher default rates because consumers struggle to pay back loans. They also take out loans at lower rates for that reason, and altogether, banks usually do better with lower rates.
That goes for the industry as a whole, but I’m picking SoFi in particular partly because of its large lending segment, and partly because it’s growing much faster than almost any other bank, which means it stands to gain a lot from an improving economy.
SoFi is a neobank, a cadre of digital banks that have no physical branches and offer a modern take on financial management. In addition to student, personal, and home loans, it offers a broad array of standard banking services and typically beats out national averages on savings rates for deposits.
It also offers non-standard services like cryptocurrency trading on its app, and it recently said it would offer international money transfers on a Blockchain network. That could offer real value, since sending money internationally is often a complicated, expensive, and long process.
SoFi’s lending segment struggled last year when interest rates were at a high, and it has already benefited from lower rates with accelerated revenue growth and better credit metrics. Even lower rates should help all of its segments, which, aside from lending, include financial services, like bank accounts and investing, and tech platform, which is a business-to-business financial infrastructure.
As it becomes a larger and more formidable player in finance, it should be able to weather future uncertainty even better.
3. Carnival: Great performance, high debt
Carnival is sailing through smooth seas as customers continue to sign up for its cruises. Demand is at historical highs, operating income is at a record, and the company is ordering new ships and launching new destinations to meet all of this demand.
There’s only one kink in the business: it has massive debt. It’s been paying it off responsibly, but it’s still more than $27 billion. This year, it has refinanced $7 billion at better rates, saving millions on interest. It will now be able to refinance more of its debt at lower rates.
Outside of the debt, the investment thesis for Carnival is strong. It’s the largest global cruise operator, and demand has stayed healthy despite high inflation. That’s resiliency.
Carnival stock is still cheap today due to the concerns about the debt, but as it pays it down and becomes more profitable, expect the stock to keep climbing.
The central bank’s cut comes amid a cooling labour market, which has stalled economic growth.
The United States Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, so they will now be between 4.00 percent and 4.25 percent, as a slowing labour market stalls economic growth.
The Fed, the US central bank, announced its decision on Wednesday afternoon.
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Economists had widely expected a 25 basis point cut, with CME FedWatch — a group that tracks probability of monetary policy decisions — putting the odds at 96 percent. One basis point is one-hundredth of one percentage point.
Before Wednesday, the Fed had last cut rates in December by 25 basis points, the third cut last year, taking its benchmark rate to between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent, where it had held steady since.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasised that uncertainty in the economy has kept the Fed cautious, arguing that maintaining rates gave policymakers flexibility as conditions shifted.
The cut comes as a response to shifting economic conditions, following a slew of weak jobs reports showing a slowdown in growth in the labour market and a slight uptick in inflationary pressures.
“Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” the central bank said in a press release.
“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.”
Investors are also waiting for indications from the central bank on whether it will cut interest rates two or three times for the rest of the year as economic uncertainty weighs on the US labour market and the broader economy while the costs of goods and services increase under tariff-driven pressures.
Political pressure
The latest cut comes at a time of heightened scrutiny and pressure on the Fed, which has long emphasised its independence from political pressure. But for months, US President Donald Trump has publicly attacked the central bank, mocking Powell as “too late Powell” over his cautious approach to cutting rates.
At the same time, the Republican-led White House has sought to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed by former US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, citing alleged mortgage fraud.
On Monday, a US appeals court blocked Trump from removing her. The administration has said it will challenge the ruling.
“The president lawfully removed Lisa Cook for cause. The administration will appeal this decision and looks forward to ultimate victory on the issue,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said on Tuesday.
That same day, Stephen Miran, chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors, was sworn in to fill a temporary Fed seat left vacant by Adriana Kugler until January, while the White House searches for a permanent replacement.
Miran pledged to act independently, but his close ties to the Trump administration — and his work as a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute — have raised doubts. His Senate confirmation fell largely along party lines, 47–48, and Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was the only Republican to oppose him.
On Monday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called Miran “nothing more than Donald Trump’s mouthpiece at the Fed”.
Markets respond
As of 2pm in New York (18:00 GMT), US markets are trending upwards. The Nasdaq is about even with the market open, the S&P 500 is up 0.2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 1 percent.
The Korean Federation of Community Credit Cooperatives offers an interest rate of up to 12% for customers with three or more children. Photo courtesy of Korean Federation of Community Credit Cooperatives.
SEOUL, Sept. 17 (UPI) — To address its low fertility rate, the South Korean government has gone all out. Now, the country’s private corporations are joining the campaign by offering higher savings interest rates for families with multiple children.
The Korean Federation of Community Credit Cooperatives said Wednesday that its newly launched savings product attracted more than 30,000 customers. With more than 1,250 financial cooperatives, it is the nation’s largest apex organization.
The product provides 10% interest for customers with a newborn this year. If the child is their second, the rate increases to 11%, and for a third child, it rises to 12%. A monthly deposit limit applies, though.
“We will develop various programs to uphold our responsibility as a local financial institution, and to contribute to building a sustainable community,” cooperative Chairman Kim In said in a statement.
KB Kookmin Bank, Korea’s largest lender in terms of assets, also has a savings account that offers interest rates up to 10% to families with multiple children.
Last year, Seoul-based builder Booyoung started to award a $72,000 bonus to employees each time they had a baby. The company told UPI that it had spent $7.1 million for the initiative so far.
Cosmetics maker Kolmar Korea provides a childbirth grant of $7,200 for the first and second children, and $14,400 for the third. It has also made parental leave mandatory.
South Korea’s fertility rate has been plummeting, falling to 0.72 in 2023 before slightly going up to 0.75 last year. This means that for every 100 women, only 75 babies are expected to be born.
It is one of the lowest rates in the world. Only a handful of places recorded fertility rates below 1 in recent years, including Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
Experts are predicting a cut in interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. And even more cuts could follow in late 2025 and beyond.
That means certificate of deposit (CD) rates of 4.00% or higher will likely disappear, too.
If you’ve been thinking about opening a CD, now is definitely the time. Here’s what you should know if you’re opening a CD.
What to know when opening a CD
A CD is a type of savings account where you deposit your money for a set period, earning a fixed interest rate in return for the commitment. For example, you might open a 1-year CD that earns 4.00% APY. That means when your CD matures after a full year, you’ll get your money back, plus 4.00% in interest.
Here’s how to pick the right CD for you:
Find the right term length: Shorter terms (3-12 months) give you quicker access to your cash. Longer terms (a few years) give you a longer guaranteed rate of return.
Shop for the best rate: Online banks usually offer higher APYs.
Fund your account: Transfer money from an existing bank account to a CD.
Wait it out — and don’t touch your money: Most CDs charge a penalty for early withdrawals.
Plan your next move: Once your CD matures, you can either withdraw your money or roll it over into another CD.
Who should open a CD now?
CDs are a great fit for you if:
You already have an emergency fund in a savings account
You want a guaranteed return over a few months or years
You’re saving for a short- to medium-term goal
You want to lock in a high interest rate while you still can
With rates expected to fall as soon as this week, now is definitely the time to lock in your CD rate.
Act now before rates drop
Traders expect the Fed to announce an interest rate cut this week, and Fed leadership recently projected that rates would fall through 2027 and beyond. That means today’s high CD rates could soon disappear — for a very long time.
If those predictions turn out to be true, you’ll be glad you locked in a 4.00%-plus APY while you still could.
New York, USA – Next week, the United States Federal Reserve will hold a two-day policy meeting to decide whether to lower interest rates.
The meeting follows a months-long pause in rates and comes amid heightened pressure on the central bank.
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US President Donald Trump recently dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud, which she is contesting in court, and has escalated his loud and repeated criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Fed, which emphasises its independence from political influence, will weigh new economic data as it considers its next move. The benchmark interest rate has remained at 4.25 percent – 4.50 percent since December.
So far, the Fed has held rates steady, saying the stance preserves flexibility to respond to economic shocks tied to shifting trade policy. But many economists now believe a rate cut is imminent.
They point to signs of a cooling labour market and tariff-related pressure on inflation as factors that could support lowering rates, not political pressure.
“I think that the Fed has made it pretty clear that they’re going to cut rates in September, and the market certainly expects that,” Daniel Hornung, policy fellow at Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research and former deputy director of the National Economic Council, told Al Jazeera.
CME FedWatch, which tracks the probability of Fed policy moves, puts the likelihood of a quarter of one percentage point cut at 94.5 percent, echoing research from JPMorgan last month.
“For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the risk management considerations may go beyond balancing employment and inflation risks, and we now see the path of least resistance is to pull forward the next cut of 25 basis points to the September meeting,” Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JP Morgan, said at the time.
Prices jump
Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August from the previous month, the sharpest increase in seven months, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI) report released on Thursday.
The gain followed a 0.2 percent rise in July. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a 0.3 percent monthly increase in core CPI.
Energy costs climbed 0.7 percent, fueled by a 1.9 percent jump in gasoline. Airfares climbed 5.9 percent, apparel prices rose 0.5 percent, shelter increased 0.4 percent, grocery prices were up 0.6 percent, and restaurant meals rose 0.3 percent.
Some goods saw particularly steep increases. Coffee prices jumped 3.6 percent on the month as Brazil, the world’s top coffee exporter, redirected shipments away from the US following new tariffs.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks prices businesses receive for goods and services, showed coffee up nearly 7 percent from July and more than 33 percent over the past year.
There is a comparable phenomenon with beef, for which the US relies heavily on Brazil. CPI data showed a 2.7 percent increase, while the PPI measured a 6 percent monthly rise and a 21 percent yearly increase.
Overall, the PPI slipped 0.1 percent, suggesting some businesses are absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them to consumers. Service prices fell 1.7 percent, driven by a 3.9 percent decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesalers, which offset a 0.1 percent increase in goods prices. That came after wholesale inflation was revised higher to 0.7 percent in July, which was well above economists’ forecasts.
Even so, companies are beginning to warn that they cannot continue absorbing higher costs. In recent weeks, Campbell’s Co, which makes Campbell’s Soup and Goldfish crackers, and Procter & Gamble have both said they plan to raise prices on consumer goods in the months ahead as tariff pressures persist.
Labour market tumbles
The US labour market, a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, has cooled sharply.
Approximately 263,000 people submitted initial jobless claims last week, the most in four years, Department of Labor data released on Thursday showed.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised down job gains over the past few months, as well as between April 2024 and March 2025, when the US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than had been previously reported.
All of that is echoed by poor jobs numbers last week. In August, the economy added only 22,000 jobs, with gains concentrated in healthcare (which added 31,000 jobs) and social assistance (which added 16,000). The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3 percent, the Labor Department reported.
Revisions showed July job growth slightly stronger at 79,000, up from 73,000, while June was cut from a modest gain to a loss of 13,000.
“The recent job numbers were really, especially the revision of the earlier numbers, were really kind of problematic for the economy,” Michael Klein, professor of International Economic Affairs at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, told Al Jazeera.
Job openings and turnover also declined, leaving more unemployed workers than available positions for the first time since April 2021.
A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas highlighted the strain, noting a 39 percent jump in job cuts between July and August. Private payroll growth slowed as well, according to the ADP National Employment Report, which showed just 54,000 jobs added, down from 106,000 the prior month.
Competing forces
Typically, high inflation prompts higher interest rates, which discourage borrowing and spending and help rein in prices.
“The Fed is in a very difficult position right now because there is both a weakening labour market and evidence of higher inflation. Typically, if the Fed is facing a weaker labour market, it would want to lower interest rates. And if it’s facing higher inflation, it would want to raise interest rates. But we’re in a situation now where there are countervailing forces,” Klein said.
The labour market is already weighing on consumer spending. Rising layoffs and slower hiring have made shoppers cautious, and the latest consumer confidence index shows plans to buy big-ticket and discretionary items are slipping.
With Trump’s shifting tariffs and hardline immigration policies, businesses are stuck in a “wait-and-see” mode, increasing uncertainty.
“We are seeing immigration and tariff policies that have the simultaneous effect of raising prices and slowing growth in the labour market,” Hornung said.
HOUSEHOLDS across the country are being warned to brace for a financial squeeze as the cost of government borrowing skyrockets to levels not seen since 1998.
This now directly threatens to push up mortgage rates and could usher in a new wave of tax hikes.
1
The rise in government borrowing costs is putting serious pressure on household budgets in two key waysCredit: Getty
The pound has tumbled in response to the growing unease, highlighting investor concern over the UK’s economic stability.
At the heart of the issue are government bonds, known as “gilts,” which the government issues to borrow money.
These bonds offer investors a return, referred to as the “yield.”
In recent weeks, gilt yields have been rising rapidly, making it more expensive for the government to borrow.
This morning, yields soared further, with 30-year gilts reaching 5.72% – the highest level in nearly 30 years – while 10-year gilts climbed to 4.85%.
This spike signals that investors are nervous.
They are demanding a higher return to lend to the UK, worried about stubborn inflation and a gaping £51billion hole in the nation’s finances.
The rise in government borrowing costs is putting serious pressure on household budgets in two key ways
Firstly, it’s driving up mortgage rates.
The link between government gilt yields and mortgage rates is direct and unavoidable.
Lenders use “swap rates,” which closely track gilt yields, to set the prices of fixed-rate mortgage deals.
As these rates climb, fixed mortgages become more expensive.
Since August 1, two-year swaps have risen from 3.56% to 3.74%, while five-year swaps have gone from 3.63% to 3.83%.
Major lenders like Barclays have already started increasing rates, and even a small rise can add significantly to monthly payments on a typical £200,000 mortgage.
With swap rates continuing to rise in recent weeks, experts warn that mortgage rates are likely to increase further.
Separately, Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a difficult challenge in her Autumn Budget, scheduled for November.
Higher borrowing costs are eating into public funds, and many economists believe tax increases will be necessary to fill the financial gap.
Although the government has promised not to raise income tax, national insurance, or VAT for “working people,” other tax measures are reportedly being considered.
One proposal is applying National Insurance to rental income, which critics fear could result in landlords passing on the cost to tenants through higher rents.
Another idea being debated is replacing stamp duty with an annual property tax, which could affect homeowners.
There are also rumours of reducing pension tax relief or cutting the tax-free lump sum, moves that could generate billions but might hurt savers.
Plus, there’s speculation about lowering the VAT threshold, which would bring more small businesses into the tax system.
This could increase their costs and potentially lead to higher prices for consumers.
Reeves is expected to make economic growth the centrepiece of her next Budget, warning that Britain’s economy is “stuck” and in need of bold solutions.
What can you do about it?
None of the proposed changes have been confirmed yet, and the government hasn’t ruled them out either.
However, any new measures won’t take effect until after the Budget in November.
It’s important not to make rash decisions based on speculation.
If changes are announced, you’ll have time to act and protect your finances before they come into effect.
For instance, if stamp duty is replaced by an annual property tax from a certain date, you could move house before the deadline to avoid the extra cost.
Similarly, if the government introduces capital gains tax on high-value properties, you might consider downsizing to a smaller home before the change is implemented.
Rob Morgan, chief analyst at Charles Stanley, said: “Taking pre-emptive action can outright backfire.
“Last year some people were concerned about restrictions around taking tax free cash from pension and took withdrawals they wouldn’t have otherwise made.
“This removed the money from a tax-efficient environment and potentially stored up tax issues that will come back to haunt them.
“Instead, it’s best to wait to see what happens, consider the consequences, and take advice as required before acting.”
Most of the proposed measures are likely to affect only the very wealthy, so you may not be impacted at all.
If you’re concerned, there are steps you can take to prepare and safeguard your finances.
Check your financial health
If you are worried about your finances then you should speak to a financial adviser.
They will be able to offer you advice about your situation and explain if any of the measures will affect you.
You can find one using unbiased.co.uk – but remember, you will pay a fee.
It’s good practice to sit down and take stock of your finances every six months and work out a plan.
Work out all your bills and outgoings and what income you have and factor in any changes, such as bills going up or new income streams.
Think about what you need to do to make the most of your money. For example, do you need to prioritise paying off debts or saving for a house deposit.
If your mortgage deal is coming to an end soon, act now.
Locking in a fixed rate could shield you from rising rates and market uncertainty.
Aaron Strutt, of mortgage broker Trinity Financial, said “For the moment there have not been significant price hikes but it’s probably worth locking in a mortgage rate if you are buying somewhere or due to remortgage, to try and keep away from any market turbulence.”
If you are coming to the end of a fixed deal, most lenders let you lock in a new rate up to six months beforehand, which can be worth doing.
If rates fall after you agree a new deal, some lenders will let you sign a new one at a lower rate.
How to get the best deal on your mortgage
IF you’re looking for a traditional type of mortgage, getting the best rates depends entirely on what’s available at any given time.
If you’re remortgaging and your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) has changed, you’ll get access to better rates than before.
Your LTV will go down if your outstanding mortgage is lower and/or your home’s value is higher.
A change to your credit score or a better salary could also help you access better rates.
And if you’re nearing the end of a fixed deal soon it’s worth looking for new deals now.
You can lock in current deals sometimes up to six months before your current deal ends.
Leaving a fixed deal early will usually come with an early exit fee, so you want to avoid this extra cost.
But depending on the cost and how much you could save by switching versus sticking, it could be worth paying to leave the deal – but compare the costs first.
You can also go to a mortgage broker who can compare a much larger range of deals for you.
Some will charge an extra fee but there are plenty who give advice for free and get paid only on commission from the lender.
You’ll also need to factor in fees for the mortgage, though some have no fees at all.
You can add the fee – sometimes more than £1,000 – to the cost of the mortgage, but be aware that means you’ll pay interest on it and so will cost more in the long term.
The average bank customer has around £10,000 in savings, according to Raisin.
If that £10,000 is kept in an easy access account earning 1.5% interest, it would generate just £150 in interest each year.
But switching to Cahoot’s 5% easy access account would boost that to £500, earning you an extra £350.
If your savings account pays less than the current inflation rate of 3.8%, it’s time to look for a better deal.
How can I find the best savings rates?
WITH your current savings rates in mind, don’t waste time looking at individual banking sites to compare rates – it’ll take you an eternity.
Research price comparison websites such as Compare the Market, Go.Compare and MoneySupermarket.
These will help you save you time and show you the best rates available.
They also let you tailor your searches to an account type that suits you.
As a benchmark, you’ll want to consider any account that currently pays more interest than the current level of inflation – 3.4%.
It’s always wise to have some money stashed inside an easy-access savings account to ensure you have quick access to cash to deal with any emergencies like a boiler repair, for example.
If you’re saving for a long-term goal, then consider locking some of your savings inside a fixed bond, as these usually come with the highest savings rates.
UK interest rates are widely expected to be cut on Thursday, taking the cost of borrowing to its lowest level for more than two years.
Financial markets predict that the Bank of England will reduce interest rates to 4% from 4.25% in its fifth cut since last August, taking it to the lowest since March 2023.
A lower base rate can reduce monthly mortgage costs for some homeowners but it also means a smaller return for savers.
Next week, the Office for National Statistics will release data on how the UK economy performed between April and June.
It grew by 0.7% in the first three months of the year.
If the Bank does trim rates, repayments on an average standard variable rate mortgage of £250,000 over 25 years will fall by £40 per month, according to Moneyfacts.
But for savers, the average return rate would fall from 3.9% in August last year to 3.5%, the financial data firm said.
“Savings rates are getting worse and any base rate reductions will spell further misery for savers,” said Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts.
Inflation
Interest rates are expected to be cut despite inflation – which measures the pace of price rises – climbing above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
In the year to June, inflation rose to 3.6% due in part to the higher cost of food and clothing as well as air and rail travel.
However, there are signs that the UK employment market is cooling which could weigh on inflation.
Recent figures show that the number of people on payrolls is falling, vacancies are lower and the jobless rate has ticked higher.
A new report from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has found that crime in the United States decreased in 2024, continuing a trend of improved public safety after a spike in murders during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report, released on Tuesday, estimates that 1,221,345 incidents of violent crime – including murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault offences – took place in the US last year, down by 4.5 percent from 2023.
Intentional homicides decreased by 14.9 percent. But at a rate of 5 for every 100,000 people, the murder rate in the US remains significantly higher than throughout most of the world.
For example, according to United Nations data, the murder rate in Japan in 2023 was 0.23 per 100,000 people. In Oman, the rate was 0.14. In Norway, it was 0.72. And in the US’s northern neighbour, Canada, the rate was 1.98.
Nonetheless, the 2024 murder rate in the US represents a nine-year low and a major decline from a recent peak of 6.7 per 100,000 in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.
Rape offences also went down by 5.2 percent in 2024, the report said, while reports of hate crimes decreased by 1.5 percent.
Data submitted to the FBI shows a violent crime occurred on average every 26 seconds in 2024 and law enforcement made more than 419,000 violent crime arrests.
Overall, a violent crime occurred in the US every 26 seconds, a murder every 31 minutes and a rape offence every four minutes.
Property crime also decreased in 2024, according to the FBI report. The bureau recorded 5,986,400 such offences, an 8.1 percent decrease from 2023.
The data is based on the reporting of thousands of law enforcement agencies that cover 95.6 percent of US residents, the FBI said.
According to the report, 64 police officers were criminally killed last year, and 43 others died in accidents. More than 85,700 officers were assaulted, a slight uptick from 2023 and a 10-year high.
Gun violence has been a leading driver of crime in the US. According to the database Gun Violence Archives, there have been 8,878 gun-related deaths and 261 mass shootings so far in 2025.
Last week, an attacker armed with a rifle killed four people, including a police officer, near the headquarters of the National Football League (NFL) in New York City.
Last year, US President Donald Trump made public safety a major theme in his election campaign, portraying his Democratic rivals as weak on crime and anti-police.
Although the initial uptick in crime rates happened during the last year of Trump’s first term, the Republican leader repeatedly promised to restore “law and order”. It is largely the states and local authorities that oversee policing.
On Tuesday, Trump renewed his criticism of local policing and prosecution in Washington, DC, threatening to have federal authorities take over the US capital city.
He claimed that teenage “thugs” are randomly attacking people in the capital city and called for any youth suspects to be prosecuted and tried as adults.
“Washington, DC, must be safe, clean, and beautiful for all Americans and, importantly, for the World to see,” Trump wrote in a social media post.
“If DC doesn’t get its act together, and quickly, we will have no choice but to take Federal control of the City, and run this City how it should be run, and put criminals on notice that they’re not going to get away with it anymore.”
However, official data shows that crime has been on a downward trend in Washington, DC, contradicting Trump’s claim that the capital “is totally out of control”.
For example, violent crime went down by 35 percent in 2024 compared with the previous year, and homicide dropped by 32 percent.
Tuesday’s data does not reflect the state of public safety under Trump, who returned to the White House in January this year.
The US president has hurled insults at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, renewing calls for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates.
Washington, DC – United States President Donald Trump has called on the Federal Reserve board to wrest control of the central bank from Chairman Jerome Powell and lower interest rates.
In a series of social media posts on Friday, Trump — who has called for lowering interest rates for months — escalated his attacks on Powell, suggesting that the central bank chief should be stripped of his powers.
“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, a stubborn MORON, must substantially lower interest rates, NOW,” Trump wrote.
“IF HE CONTINUES TO REFUSE, THE BOARD SHOULD ASSUME CONTROL, AND DO WHAT EVERYONE KNOWS HAS TO BE DONE!”
Trump later added that Powell “should also be put ‘out to pasture’.”
Earlier this week, Powell announced that interest rates would remain steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
The central bank’s rates indirectly set the rates for private lending across the country.
When the Federal Reserve, known as the Fed, sees the need to accelerate economic activity, it cuts interest rates to lower the cost of borrowing and pump money into the economy.
Conversely, when prices rise too rapidly, the Fed raises interest rates to bring the cost of living under control.
The central bank operates independently of political officials.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates plummeted to prevent a prolonged recession during the lockdown.
But as supply-chain disruption and an abundance of money in the economy sparked an inflation crisis in 2022, the Fed hiked interest rates to levels not seen since the 2008 Great Recession.
An advocate for greater investments in the US economy, Trump has been arguing that inflation is now at sustainable levels, so there is no need for interest rates to remain high.
Over the past year, the central bank slashed interest rates by about 1 percent, but Trump has been demanding more aggressive cuts.
On Wednesday, Powell cited a risk of inflation linked to Trump’s trade policies as the reason behind his decision not to drop interest rates.
“Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen,” he told reporters.
Earlier this month, a government report showed that consumer prices rose by 0.3 percent from May to June, compared with 0.1 percent the previous month, as Trump’s tariffs started to set in.
Powell did not rule out that the uptick in prices could be “short-lived”, but he also warned that it may become persistent, arguing for a cautious approach while monitoring inflation.
“For the time being, we’re well positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks before adjusting our policy stance,” he said. “We see our current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks.”
The decision proved controversial, with the Fed board seeing rare dissent from two members, both Trump appointees, who publicly argued for more rate cuts.
Trump also applauded the news that Federal Reserve board member Adriana Kugler, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, would step down on August 8, giving him a new vacancy to fill.
“Too Little, Too Late,” the US president wrote on Friday. “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell is a disaster. DROP THE RATE! The good news is that Tariffs are bringing Billions of Dollars into the USA!”
The Bank of England is prepared to make larger interest rate cuts if the job market shows signs of slowing down, its governor has said.
In an interview with the Times, Andrew Bailey said “I really do believe the path is downward” on interest rates.
Interest rates currently stand at 4.25% and will be reviewed at the Bank’s next meeting on 7 August, when many economists expect the rate will be cut.
They affect mortgage, credit card and savings rates for millions of people.
Speaking to the Times, Mr Bailey said the UK’s economy was growing behind its potential, opening up “slack” that would help to bring down inflation.
The governor said there were consistent signs that businesses were “adjusting employment and hours” and were giving smaller pay rises following UK Chancellor Rachel Reeve’s moveto increase employers’ national insurance contributions.
Reeves raised national insurance rates for employers from 13.8% to 15% in April this year, in a move the government estimated would generate £25bn a year.
The latest official figures show the number of job vacancies in the UK has dropped to 736,000 over the three months to May – its lowest level since 2021 when firms had halted hiring during the Covid pandemic.
Meanwhile, the number of people available for work has jumped at its fastest pace since the pandemic, according to a survey from auditor KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation trade body.
“I think the path [for interest rates] is down. I really do believe the path is downward,” the governor said.
“But we continue to use the words ‘gradual and careful’ because… some people say to me ‘why are you cutting when inflation’s above target?”‘ he added.
Louise Dudley, portfolio manager at investor Federated Hermes, told the BBC’s Today programme that Mr Bailey’s comments suggested a rate cut was likely “sooner rather than later”.
Interest rates were left unchanged during the Bank’s last meeting in June, following two cuts earlier in the year.
During that meeting, Mr Bailey also said interest rates would take a “gradual downward path”.
The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in May, after also shrinking in April, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The unexpected dip was mainly driven by a drop in manufacturing, while retail sales were also “very weak”, said the ONS.
The Bank of England has hinted at further interest rate cuts, which could come as soon as August.
It decided to keep rates at 4.25% on Thursday with inflation, the rate prices rise at over time, remaining at its highest level for more than a year and above the Bank’s target rate.
Governor Andrew Bailey said interest rates “remain on a gradual downward path”, but warned: “The world is highly unpredictable.”
There are concerns that the conflict between Israel and Iran, a major oil producer, could send energy costs higher and drive overall prices up, which would impact further rate decisions.
The Bank said it was “sensitive” to events in the Middle East and the impact on oil prices, which could have knock-on effects for the UK economy.
It noted that since its last meeting in May, oil prices had risen by 26% while gas prices grew by 11%.
The bank marginally lifted its expectations for the UK economy but it said that underlying growth was “weak”.
UK growth has been uneven so far this year, with the economy expanding strongly at the start of the 2025, before shrinking sharply in April.
There has been evidence that the pace of wage growth – which contributes to the rate of inflation – is slowing. At the same time, the UK’s unemployment rate has risen and businesses are holding off on recruiting or replacing staff.
“In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labour market. We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation,” said Mr Bailey.
The Bank’s base interest rate dictates the rates set by High Street banks and lenders.
The higher level in recent years has meant people are paying more to borrow money for things like mortgages and credit cards, but savers have also received better returns.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the chances of two interest rate cuts this year were “still on the horizon”.
In every direction, there’s a conundrum to confront, so policymakers have judged that pressing the pause button on rates is the best option for now.
“Hopes for a summer rate reduction haven’t completely faded, with bets ramping up that a cut in August could provide the rays of relief that borrowers have been waiting for,” she added.
Pressure growing on businesses
Businesses appeared to be trimming wages for some workers to pay for the rise in employment costs that came into force in April.
Employers have been hit with a rise in the amount of National Insurance they are required to pay as well as increases to the minimum wage. The Bank estimated the policy changes by Chancellor Rachel Reeves have hiked wage bills by 10%.
In the its survey of businesses, it said that pressure had grown on firms to recover the higher costs by raising prices but added “success is mixed”.
Instead it said companies were using a range of measures to cut costs, including reducing pay rises for those workers just above the minimum wage level.
Inflation remains above the Bank target of 2% at 3.4% in the year to May, and is expected to climb to 3.5% later this year. But it is expected fall back to around 2.1% next year.
Interest rates are the Bank’s main tool in try to maintain the annual rate of inflation at, or close to its target.
The theory behind increasing interest rates to tackle inflation is that by making borrowing more expensive, more people will cut back on spending and that leads to demand for goods falling and price rises easing.
But it is a balancing act as high interest rates can harm the economy as businesses hold off on investing in production and jobs.