China: Problems Persist Despite Trade Talks
On October 10, President Donald Trump unveiled plans for a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and new export controls on software. But just weeks later, talks between top US and Chinese officials shifted the narrative again, offering a glimpse of a potential deal that could avert deeper conflict—at least for now.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on October 26 that negotiators had forged a trade framework that could forestall the 100% tariff increase. The framework could also delay China’s rare earths export restrictions for a year while it reconsiders its policy. The talks occurred against the backdrop of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, an event at which Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were scheduled to meet at press time.
Vina Nadjibulla, vice president for research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, pointed out that the US tariffs were being framed in China as the chief culprit for its economic slowdown—but she noted the country’s troubles go beyond tariff wars.
“The reality is that China’s slowdown is overwhelmingly driven by domestic, structural issues: a prolonged property bust that’s sapping household wealth and confidence, weak consumption, local-government debt, and private-sector caution after years of regulatory churn—problems that predate the latest tariff rounds,”
Vina Nadjibulla, vice president for research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada
While the US tariffs have undoubtedly disrupted Chinese exports, China, for its part, has adapted in some ways. For example, it’s no longer as reliant on the US as it once was, according to Wei Liang, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
After all, high tariffs have been in place since 2018, Trump’s first term. “Today, the largest trading partner of China is not the US, but Southeast Asia and the EU,” Liang says. So, the potential escalation of tariffs from 25% to 100%, she explains, would have had a limited impact anyway.
And while Bessent expects a tariff truce with China to extend beyond the November 10 deadline, the tension between both nations has intensified and will likely persist. What will change that? “Different leadership,” Liang adds. New leaders, both in the US or in China, “might choose different strategies and better manage their bilateral differences.”
