prepare

Plumes of smoke rise above the skyline of Tehran, following explosions in Iran, on sunday on March 1, 2026. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was confirmed dead after a joint U.S.–Israeli strike on February 28. In response, Iran launched waves of missiles and drones targeting Israel and U.S. allies across the region. File. Photo by Hossein Esmaeili/UPI | License Photo

March 3 (Asia Today) — The escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran may not end quickly, and South Korea must prepare for the possibility of a prolonged crisis.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched retaliatory strikes following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Tehran has moved to block the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments, and has fired missiles toward Gulf neighbors including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.

Although U.S. and Israeli forces reportedly killed Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei and senior military commanders in a surprise attack, it remains unclear whether the conflict will conclude swiftly as President Donald Trump has suggested.

Trump has framed the strikes as an effort to achieve regime change, urging the Iranian people to rise up against the country’s theocratic leadership. However, the situation differs markedly from past U.S. interventions. Achieving regime change solely through airstrikes on military and strategic targets is unlikely.

Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, has argued that history shows regime change is rarely accomplished without occupation. He also warned that with Khamenei dead, the most hardline elements within the current system could consolidate power.

David Ignatius of The Washington Post likewise cautioned that a U.S. attack on Iran would not be a “one and done” operation but could become a drawn-out conflict. He wrote that the president has a responsibility to explain the stakes and unpredictable risks to the American public.

Global financial markets have already reacted. Japan’s Nikkei index fell as much as 2.7% on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures briefly surged 13% to more than $75 per barrel. The Economist warned that oil prices could remain elevated even after the initial spike.

The magazine assessed that hardliners gaining influence in Tehran is more likely than a smooth regime transition. It cautioned that if Iranian forces target oil infrastructure in Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Kuwait, defending those facilities would prove difficult.

South Korea must assume the conflict could drag on. The economic shock would affect both financial markets and the real economy. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, then-President Joe Biden released 4.4 million barrels per day from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve, yet oil prices remained volatile. At the time, U.S. reserves stood at 570 million barrels; they now total about 415 million barrels.

The government should prepare for currency volatility and stock market declines. Surging oil prices and shipping costs, along with renewed supply chain disruptions, would pose significant medium- to long-term risks to production, investment and consumption in South Korea’s trade-dependent economy.

This crisis should not be viewed as a short-term event. Policymakers must respond with the understanding that the conflict could persist and plan accordingly.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260302010000297

Friedrich Merz said concerns about a further escalation with Iran have dominated his trip to the Gulf region.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned of the threat of a military escalation in the Middle East before talks between Iran and the United States in Oman on Friday.

Speaking in Doha on Thursday, Merz said that fears of a new conflict had characterised his talks during his trip to the Gulf region.

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“In all my conversations yesterday and today, great concern has been expressed about a further escalation in the conflict with Iran,” he said during a news conference.

Merz also urged Iran to end what he called aggression and enter into talks, saying Germany would do everything it could to de-escalate the situation and work towards regional stability.

The warning came in the run-up to a crucial scheduled meeting between officials from Tehran and Washington in Muscat.

Mediators from Qatar, Turkiye and Egypt have presented Iran and the US with a framework of key principles to be discussed in the talks, including a commitment by Iran to significantly limit its uranium enrichment, two sources familiar with the negotiations have told Al Jazeera.

Before the talks, both sides appear to be struggling to find common ground on a number of issues, including what topics will be up for discussion.

Iran says the talks must be confined to its long-running nuclear dispute with Western powers, rejecting a US demand to also discuss Tehran’s ballistic missiles, and warning that pushing issues beyond the nuclear programme could jeopardise the talks.

Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett said the US is eager for the talks to follow what they see as an agreed-upon format.

“That agreed-upon format includes issues broader than what the US understands Iran is willing to discuss in this initial set of talks,” she explained.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that talks would have to include the range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, its support for armed groups around the Middle East and its treatment of its own people, in addition to its nuclear programme.

A White House official has told Al Jazeera that Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and a key figure in his Middle East policy negotiations, and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, have arrived in the Qatari capital, Doha, in advance of the talks.

Halkett said that Qatar is playing an instrumental role in trying to facilitate these talks, along with other regional US partners, including Egypt.

“We understand, according to a White House official, that this is perhaps part of the reason for the visit – to try and work with Qatar in an effort to try and get Iran to expand and build upon the format of these talks.”

Pressure on Iran

The talks come as the region braces for a potential US attack on Iran after US President Donald Trump ordered forces to amass in the Arabian Sea following a violent crackdown by Iran on protesters last month.

Washington has sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, as well as an aircraft carrier, other warships, fighter jets, spy planes and air refuelling tankers.

Trump has warned that “bad things” would probably happen if a deal could not be reached, ratcheting up pressure on Iran.

This is not the first time Iranian and US officials have met in a bid to revive diplomacy between the two nations, which have not had official diplomatic relations since 1980.

In June, US and Iranian officials gathered in the Omani capital to discuss a nuclear agreement, but the process stalled as Israel launched attacks on Iran, killing several military leaders and top nuclear scientists, and targeting nuclear facilities. The US later briefly joined the war, bombing several Iranian nuclear sites.