predictions

Fair play to Leeds, they have really surprised and impressed me so far. There is a good balance to their team because they carry a threat and can dig in too.

Apart from a heavy defeat at Arsenal, they have been competitive in every game so far and their good start would have been even better but for late goals against Fulham and Bournemouth.

Even so, they have got more points than I expected at this stage and Daniel Farke deserves a lot of credit.

I think there were question marks over whether he could manage at this level because of his Premier League record with Norwich but, as I’ve said before, he never really had the squad there to be able to compete.

Tottenham have had a difficult week, having to fight back to rescue draws against Wolves and Bodo/Glimt, and this is going to be another tricky game for them.

I can actually see it ending in another draw for Spurs. At least they played in the Arctic Circle on Tuesday night rather than Wednesday but a lunchtime kick-off on Saturday is still far from ideal, and this Champions League campaign is going to stretch their squad.

Sutton’s prediction: 1-1

Rod’s prediction: I asked in my Leeds WhatsApp group about how much can I say we will win by before I sound like a lunatic, and they were all like ‘6-0’ but that is not going to happen! I want to say 4-1 but it will be a lot closer than that too.

I do think we will win, though, because Spurs don’t look that coherent as a team yet. Also, Elland Road is a fortress and the home crowd will just about get us over the line. 2-1

Rod’s favourite Leeds players: Gary Speed was a real hero of mine. I am from a Welsh family so he was absolutely my favourite player when I was growing up. Gary McAllister and Gordon Strachan were fantastic too, and a certain Frenchman who was also part of our title-winning team that I can’t really talk about now.

Speed was the one, though, right up until Alan Smith came through – but then he ended up going to the wrong place as well!

AI’s prediction: 1-2

Alphonsi: “England will win but it is going to be close. I am going to say by two points.”

Merchant: “England win. They’ve been dominant for so long. Last year they were putting in amazing performances and everything was clicking.

“Watching the WXV tournament, there wasn’t a single team in the world that could beat them on form. The more you’ve seen teams show up this World Cup – like Canada – the more you get worried.”

Orchard: “By hook or by crook it will be ugly, but England will scrap themselves over the line.

“John Mitchell has had this England team for a number of campaigns. This is also his fifth World Cup as a coach – four with different men’s sides.

“He was hired to help manage the occasion and if they don’t come out with the trophy at the end there has got to be a big review and questions asked about the approach.

“The amount of money the RFU (Rugby Football Union) have pumped into women’s rugby – they should be winning a World Cup.”

McKenzie: “Canada. We are aware of the speed and intensity Canada will bring and they will start strongly as they have done throughout the tournament.

“England have not started fast. That is going to be a telling first 20 minutes, but the back 20 minutes are going to be the most impactful.”

Monye: “It will be an open game. When it is 50-50, as an Englishman, I have to say the Red Roses win.”

Thomas: “Canada. They have played much better rugby than England for the past five weeks and I think they have got such a grounded coach in Kevin Rouet and a strong connection.

“I have been convinced by Canada and I haven’t been by England.”

With “One Battle After Another” sporting a large lead in the best picture race, it’s no surprise its beloved auteur, 11-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson, would enjoy a similar cushion in the directing category in Round 1.

Amy Nicholson says “One Battle” “isn’t his best film — deciding that would start a real fistfight — but it’s worthy enough to claim a prize that’s long overdue.” Glenn Whipp writes, “The list of great directors who never won an Oscar is ridiculous. Kubrick, Hitchcock, Altman, Fellini. Could this be the year that [Anderson] breaks out of that club, distinguished though it may be?”

Noting Anderson could bump that nominations total to 14 this year (as writer, director and producer), Dave Karger says, “This category could well contain two female filmmakers for the first time in five years,” naming Bigelow and Zhao among his picks.

Katie Walsh points out that, surprisingly, “Ryan Coogler has never been nominated for best director, and Jafar Panahi threads an incredible tonal needle.”

Best picture | Best animated feature | Best international feature

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
T2. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
T2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
4. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
5. Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
6. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
7. Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice”
8. Bill Condon, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
3. Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
4. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
5. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”

“With 11 prior nominations and zero wins, the Oscar has long eluded Paul Thomas Anderson. But with ‘One Battle After Another’ earning raves and an academy that has honored overdue directors three of the last four ceremonies (Jane Campion, Christopher Nolan, Sean Baker), maybe this is his year.”

Turner Classic Movies

Dave Karger

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
3. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
4. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
5. Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”

“On nomination day, 11-time Oscar nominee Paul Thomas Anderson will likely become a 14-time Oscar nominee. Surprisingly, he’s never won in any category. But this could certainly be his year. Meanwhile, this category could well contain two female filmmakers for the first time in five years.”

Los Angeles Times

Amy Nicholson

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
4. Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice”
5. Bill Condon, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”

“Paul Thomas Anderson has 11 Academy Award nominations (no surprise there) and zero wins. What!? ‘One Battle After Another’ isn’t his best film — deciding that would start a real fist fight — but it’s worthy enough to claim a prize that’s long overdue.”

IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
4. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
5. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”

“If ‘Sinners’ wins best picture, director could go to ‘One Battle After Another’s’ Paul Thomas Anderson after 11 nominations (and no wins) for arguably his most bravura movie to date. Both ‘Hamnet’ director Chloé Zhao and ‘House of Dynamite’s’ Kathryn Bigelow have won before.”

Tribune News Service

Katie Walsh

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
4. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
5. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”

“It has to be Anderson, but I can see the academy recognizing former winners like Kathryn Bigelow and Chloé Zhao. Ryan Coogler has never been nominated for best director, and Jafar Panahi threads an incredible tonal needle with ‘It Was Just an Accident’ (the Palme d’Or helps too).”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
4. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
5. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”

“The list of great directors who never won an Oscar is ridiculous. Kubrick, Hitchcock, Altman, Fellini. Could this be the year that Paul Thomas Anderson breaks out of that club, distinguished though it may be? With ‘One Battle After Another,’ he has the movie to do it.”

Norway’s “Sentimental Value” looks poised to be this year’s international feature that breaks through across multiple categories (think “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Emilia Pérez” and others): the non-English language movie that earns academy recognition for its acting, script and direction.

Anne Thompson handicaps the race so far thus: Noting that several countries still haven’t chosen their submissions, “Cannes prizewinners have an increased profile with the international committee, including Norway’s ‘Sentimental Value’ and Brazil’s ‘Secret Agent.’ ”

But several other official submissions have our panel over the moon.

“I’ll call it right now,” declares Glenn Whipp: “The thrilling ‘Sirât,’ from Spanish filmmaker Oliver Laxe, is going to be named best picture by either the Los Angeles or New York film critics … then it’ll be off to the races for this film, a ‘Sorcerer’ for the 21st century.”

Robert Daniels’ description of “The Voice of Hind Rajab” is harrowing: “The real-life story of a 6-year-old Palestinian girl whose final hours trapped in a car under intense fire from an IDF tank were spent pleading to be saved … a candid dramatization of her emergency phone calls.”

1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
3. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
4. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)
5. “Sirât” (Spain)
6. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
T7. “Calle Málaga” (Morocco)
T7. “The President’s Cake” (Iraq)
T7. “A Useful Ghost” (Thailand)

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
2. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
3. “Calle Málaga” (Morocco)
4. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
5. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)

“Venice’s harrowing grand jury prize winner, Tunisia’s ‘The Voice of Hind Rajab,’ has already built early momentum. The film tells the real-life story of Rajab, a 6-year-old Palestinian girl whose final hours trapped in a car under intense fire from an IDF tank were spent pleading to be saved. A distressing docufiction, the film is a candid dramatization of her emergency phone calls.”

Turner Classic Movies

Dave Karger

1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
3. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
4. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)
5. “Left-Handed Girl” (Taiwan)

“Three films that are also overall contenders this year stand to dominate this race: Norway’s ‘Sentimental Value,’ Brazil’s ‘The Secret Agent’ and France’s ‘It Was Just an Accident.’ The bigger question will be which films are able to snag the final two slots.”

Los Angeles Times

Amy Nicholson

1. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
2. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
3. “A Useful Ghost” (Thailand)
4. “2000 Meters to Andriivka” (Ukraine)
5. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)

“Can Brazil get back-to-back wins for international feature? Possivelmente! ‘The Secret Agent,’ another political thriller set during the dictatorship, was one of the buzziest movies at Cannes, where it scooped up best actor for star Wagner Moura and best director for Kleber Mendonça Filho (of the weirdo western ‘Bacarau’).”

IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
3. “The President’s Cake” (Iraq)
4. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)
5. “Left-Handed Girl” (Taiwan)

“It’s too early, as [several countries] haven’t submitted yet. But Cannes prizewinners have an increased profile with the international committee, including Norway’s ‘Sentimental Value’ and Brazil’s ‘Secret Agent.’ ”

Tribune News Service

Katie Walsh

1. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
2. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
3. “The Secret Agent”
4. “Sirât” (Spain)
5. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)

“Based on Cannes, I think ‘It Was Just an Accident’ (France), ‘The Secret Agent’ (Brazil), ‘Sirât’ (Spain) and ‘Sentimental Value’ (Norway) could be considered as good as nominated. But who will emerge triumphant in the fifth spot?”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. “Sirât” (Spain)
2. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
3. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
4. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)
5. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)

“I’ll call it right now. The thrilling ‘Sirât,’ from Spanish filmmaker Oliver Laxe, is going to be named best picture by either the Los Angeles or New York film critics. Who knows? Maybe both. And then it’ll be off to the races for this film, a ‘Sorcerer’ for the 21st century.”

With so much uncertainty in the earliest round, consensus No. 1 picks are rare, but that’s just what Jessie Buckley of “Hamnet” is — one of only two in the entire BuzzMeter poll. She has double the points of runner-up Renate Reinsve, who is just one tally ahead of Emma Stone.

Saying it feels “inevitable” that Buckley will one day win, Robert Daniels calls her work in “Hamnet” “a gut-wrenching performance … Jessie Buckley’s fearless turn echoes with the force of a primal scream.”

Among the other contenders, Glenn Whipp asks of the upcoming “Wicked: For Good,” “Will voters be into it or over it? That’s a coin flip. More certain: Cynthia Erivo will rip out our hearts in the sequel.” Dave Karger wonders if one star has the makeup to land in the top five: “‘Christy’ star Sydney Sweeney will try to ride her strong Toronto buzz to a first nomination.”

Meanwhile, Katie Walsh highlights one of the perils of long-range predictions — occasional category uncertainty: “Should Emily Blunt go lead for ‘The Smashing Machine,’ or supporting?” Blunt’s roller-coaster performance as a champion wrestler’s love — and perhaps his most dangerous opponent — is hard to pin down.

As for Seyfried, at press time “The Testament of Ann Lee” doesn’t yet have a distributor. But perhaps the lead’s strong showing on the BuzzMeter will be an inducement to change that.

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
4. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
6. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
7. Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
8. Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
4. Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt”
5. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”

“With a gut-wrenching performance as Agnes Shakespeare, Jessie Buckley’s fearless turn echoes with the force of a primal scream. It feels inevitable that the previous nominee will win an Oscar at some point. It’s just a matter of time.”

Turner Classic Movies

Dave Karger

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
4. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
5. Sydney Sweeney, “Christy”

“International actresses headline this race, with ‘Hamnet’s’ Jessie Buckley and ‘Sentimental Value’s’ Renate Reinsve earning festival raves for their wonderful performances. Two-time winner Emma Stone and two-time acting nominee Cynthia Erivo are also likely to return, while ‘Christy’ star Sydney Sweeney will try to ride her strong Toronto buzz to a first nomination.”

Los Angeles Times

Amy Nicholson

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
3. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
4. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”

“A Jessie Buckley win here as Shakespeare’s wild, witchy wife makes perfect sense. The Irish talent comes to the campaign with a supporting nom for ‘The Lost Daughter’ already under her sash and heaps of critical goodwill dating to 2018’s ‘Wild Rose.’ But I wouldn’t mind a Tessa Thompson upset.”

IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”

“The win could go to Jessie Buckley for her heart-wrenching mother in ‘Hamnet.’ Her challengers are another troubled mother, Rose Byrne in ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,’ warbler Cynthia Erivo in ‘Wicked for Good,’ ‘Bugonia’ star Emma Stone, who has already won twice, and Renate Reinsve as a great actress in Norwegian Oscar submission ‘Sentimental Value.’ ”

Tribune News Service

Katie Walsh

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
3. Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”
4. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
5. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”

“I haven’t seen ‘Hamnet,’ but I’m hearing best actress is Jessie Buckley’s to lose. The TIFF People’s Choice Award gives it a boost too. Should Emily Blunt go lead for ‘The Smashing Machine,’ or supporting?”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
5. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

“Get ready for the sequel Oscar campaign for Cynthia Erivo and ‘Wicked’ as the second installment of the musical adaptation lands in November. Will voters be into it or over it? That’s a coin flip. More certain: Erivo will rip out our hearts in the sequel.”

Forget Liverpool against Everton or Arsenal taking on Manchester City, the big fixture this weekend is Chris Sutton versus AI chatbot Copilot.

Sutton claimed on this week’s Monday Night Club that he is “more intelligent than AI” and the stats do support him, at least when it comes to football scores anyway.

He is top of the BBC predictions league table (see bottom of page) so far, with three wins in the first four weeks – and he has beaten AI every time.

“I am 4-0 up on AI – I don’t know if it feels pressure, but it should,” Sutton said. “Also, why is it not going to the best source? That’s me. if it wants to do better, maybe it should start copying me?”

AI, however, does not agree that Sutton has superior intelligence, and seems to suggest that it is a bit early for him to be celebrating.

When asked ‘are you worried that Chris Sutton is cleverer than you?’ Copilot replied “not in the slightest”.

And when asked ‘is Chris Sutton better at football predictions than you?’, it also responded confidently.

“Over time, AI tends to improve as it absorbs more data and refines its models,” Copilot said.

It added: “Short term: Sutton’s instincts and experience can give him an edge, especially in unpredictable fixtures.

“Long term: AI may outperform with consistency and breadth, especially across hundreds of matches.”

We will find out who is best, humans or machine, over the course of this season because Sutton is making predictions for all 380 Premier League games in 2025-26, taking on BBC Sport readers and a variety of guests as well as AI.

For week five, he takes on some famous fans of Liverpool and Everton, before the 247th Merseyside derby at Anfield on Saturday.

BBC’s chief football writer Phil McNulty: My pick to win it are Liverpool, purely on the basis of the huge strengthening they have carried out this summer. Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak are two high-class players who are Champions League-ready.

The vagaries of the new league system last season saw Liverpool meet eventual winners PSG in the last 16, where they lost on penalties at Anfield.

If Liverpool reach the knockout phase, which they surely will, then the Anfield factor grows with every game.

PSG will be the big danger once again, a superb side who deserve the status as the best team in Europe, while Real Madrid come into every Champions League conversation as potential winners.

BBC’s senior football correspondent Sami Mokbel: I’m going for Liverpool. Four wins from four in the Premier League and they haven’t even nearly hit top gear yet. Oh, and Isak is waiting in the wings. Arne Slot’s side are the team to beat.

Former Germany midfielder Thomas Hitzlsperger: Real are usually the club with the strongest mentality in this competition, but PSG have to be one of the favourites and Liverpool are too, given that they had such a good Premier League season then invested so much in their squad.

Those two teams come immediately to mind when I think about who will play in the final, and if I have to pick one to win it then I will go with Liverpool. Their squad depth is excellent, the quality was already there and now they have got Isak up front as well.

BBC Radio 5 Live football correspondent John Murray: When a team wins Europe’s richest league at a comparative canter then spends the best part of half a billion pounds on new players, while at the same time securing the services of two of the club’s greatest servants, it’s difficult to tip anyone other than Liverpool.

Last season they lost out only narrowly to the eventual winners in a penalty shootout. It would be a tremendous prospect if this season Liverpool and PSG were to make it all the way to the final in Budapest.

Match of the Day commentator Steve Wilson: Tipping Real Madrid to win the Champions League is hardly the work of a soothsayer, but you are not likely to be far wrong. I thought Xabi Alonso did some interesting things with his squad in the Club World Cup – and getting Arda Guler more involved can only be a good thing.

His progress was held back by the affection everyone at the Bernabeu had for Luka Modric, now he has licence to really spread his wings.

The Observer football correspondent Rory Smith: It’s been a frankly unacceptable one season since Real Madrid won the trophy the club sees as its birthright, and Alonso’s main task as manager is to put that right. Real are never the most coherent team in Europe, but they have more individual talent than anyone, and often that is what matters.

Former England captain Steph Houghton: I am backing PSG to win it again. They are a young squad that has experienced winning already, plus they are athletic and forward thinking.

Former Scotland winger Pat Nevin: For a change, I went with my head over my heart. I love PSG and the way they play, and the way they have changed the way football is being played now with their attacking attitude. I also love that they love their wingers!

Spanish football expert Guillem Balague: I feel PSG have started a new era of success that has to do with using cleverly the predominant model of our times – positional football – mixed with quality, clear leadership and top players in each position.

Barcelona will be close, but I’m not sure they will sort out their defensive deficiencies.

BBC Champions League analyst Stephen Warnock: I think Barcelona will win it – and I am going with Lamine Yamal to be the tournament’s star player.

Former Arsenal defender Matt Upson: I have gone for Barcelona, who are a young team that have grown from the experience of their cracking run to the semi-finals last season.

They were very unlucky not to make the final, and played brilliantly against Inter Milan – they just got exposed by a really rigid Inter team that had a way of playing and did what it said on the tin. But Barca will have learned from that.

The club appears a little bit unstable off the pitch at the moment but on it they have a nice balance of special young talent and know-how – with the likes of Robert Lewandowski to come on and impact games.

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, and the happiest of birthdays to my son, Camden, who turns 2 today. Judging by how often he’s pointing at the TV and screaming for me to turn on NFL preseason games, I’d say he is as ready for “ball ball” season as anyone.

Fortunately for him — and us — we are less than two weeks out from USC’s season opener against Missouri State. There’s still a lot we don’t know. But before we walk our way through the schedule next week, it’s time to get on the record with a few things I think might happen with USC..

Here are six bold predictions for the Trojans in 2025:

Jayden Maiava will throw for 30 touchdowns this season. But he’ll also throw 15 interceptions.

Maiava made a concerted effort over the summer to eliminate the back-breaking mistakes he struggled with last season. He dug deeper into Lincoln Riley’s offense, and he worked on his mechanics with the experts at the 3DQB training academy. But Maiava’s style is always going to lend itself to high variance. He loves to chuck it deep and still seems to throw it too often into coverage. That’s going to yield some thrilling results at times on an offense that should be more conducive to big plays. But 4.3% of his passes last season were deemed turnover-worthy by Pro Football Focus. That was third-highest in the Big Ten and too high for USC’s offense to reach its potential. His big-time throw rate was also third-highest in the Big Ten at 5.1%, though, and that was before he fully grasped the Trojans offense. There’s room to grow here. But I’d caution that his proclivity for throwing caution to the wind might just be a part of the deal with Maiava.

USC will be shuffling its offensive line all season.

USC hasn’t really had a reliable front since Riley’s first season, and this is by far his most unproven unit yet. The interior is a legitimate concern if DJ Wingfield isn’t deemed eligible. I expect at some point this season we’ll see a former walk-on (Kilian O’Connor) and a preferred walk-on (Kaylon Miller) start a game at center and guard, respectively. And while both should be commended for their development, that’s not a good sign for USC’s offense. The Trojans desperately need Elijah Paige to deliver on his huge potential this season at left tackle, Alani Noa to iron out some of his inconsistencies at right guard, and Tobias Raymond to live up to Riley’s billing of him as one of the best players on the team. That’s a lot to ask. Expect many different combinations up front for USC, with J’Onre Reed, Micah Banuelos and Justin Tauanuu also logging starts throughout. That’s eight different starters on the line, which would be the most since Riley took over at USC.

USC will have two 1,000-yard receivers.

The last time a duo of Trojan receivers crossed that mark was 2019, so not that long ago, but it’s been pretty rare around college football the past decade. Less than two teams on average per year, to be exact. Still, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon both cross that mark. Lemon’s last eight games of 2024 put him on pace for more than 1,000 yards already, and that was with a much less potent downfield passing game for most of the season. Lane might be the more unlikely of the two to reach this mark, but I’m betting on talent. He has to see more targets this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a target share for the two of them that nears 50%. In the bowl game, the two of them saw a combined 18 targets, a 46% target share.

Walker Lyons will be USC’s most productive tight end.

This is no shade on Lake McRee, who has been a reliable tentpole of the Trojans’ attack for a while now. But Lyons is just the sort of tight end that should thrive in Riley’s offense. More than anyone Riley has worked with yet at USC, Lyons is more in the mold of Mark Andrews, who emerged as one of the top tight ends in college football in Riley’s first season at Oklahoma. Like Andrews, he came to college as more of a skilled receiver learning to play inline. Now it’s clear he’s ready for the next step. A breakout season could be incoming.

USC will have three first-round picks next April.

A look at recent history might suggest that I’m crazy. USC had three players drafted total last spring and haven’t seen three Trojans drafted in the first round since 2009. Alas, I’m still not deterred. Either or both of Lemon and Lane could hear their names called in the first round. Kamari Ramsey might have been a first-round pick last season, if he’d declared, and Gentry has all the tools to make it happen. It’s not crazy to think that others could enter the chat too. With a huge breakout season, Maiava, Paige and defensive tackle Devan Thompkins are intriguing cases to consider. Though, the first round might be a bit too optimistic.

USC will rediscover its pass rush.

Count me as someone who believes USC’s defense takes another step forward. And I expect that progress will be most apparent in the defensive front, where USC could barely conjure a pass rush last season. Braylan Shelby led the 2024 defense with … three measly sacks. I expect we’ll see five different Trojan pass rushers pass that number this season. Gentry and sophomore Kameryn Fountain are both capable of reaching double-digit sacks, while Shelby, Anthony Lucas and freshman Jahkeem Stewart each are sure to chip in a handful on their own. Judging by early praise, Stewart could very well be the team’s best pass rusher by December.

Have your own bold takes or predictions that you want to get on the record in the next Times of Troy newsletter? Send them to me at [email protected], and I’ll include some of the best ones next week.

Makai Lemon

(Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)

—The NCAA’s 2010 sanctions of USC only get more insane by the year. This week, the NCAA issued its punishment in the Michigan sign-stealing scandal. Aside from a $20-million fine, which is substantial, the punishment reflected how much has changed societally since 2010, and the reality of how toothless the NCAA has become. That wasn’t the case in 2010, when the NCAA dropped the hammer on USC, taking away 30 scholarships and banning them from bowl games for two seasons amid the Reggie Bush saga, while the BCS stripped the school of its 2004 title. That punishment was devastating primarily to players who had nothing to do with the crime. This latest ruling clearly tried to avoid that, which is a commendable change from the NCAA. But it did understandably upset some USC fans who are still frustrated with how they were treated in a case that had far less of an actual influence on the field.

—Special teams coach Ryan Dougherty understands USC’s placekicking hasn’t been good enough. Michael Lantz hit just 14 of his 21 attempts (66.7%) last season. Denis Lynch hit 10 of 14 (71%) in 2023 and 15 of 22 in 2022 (68.2%). A few more made field goals last season might have made the difference in some of USC’s narrow losses. This season, Dougherty will put his faith in sophomore Caden Chittenden, who set the Mountain West record last year for a freshman kicker with 26 made field goals. Chittenden seems like a safe bet to be a significant improvement at a position that’s been lacking during Riley’s tenure.

—Makai Lemon will be USC’s top punt returner. Some of you might wonder why USC would invite the added risk of having Lemon return punts. But Riley wouldn’t even entertain that line of thinking this week. The coach said that “there’s nothing anyone would do that would keep us from playing them on punt return.” Given how electric Lemon can be in the return game, I get it. USC has just one punt return touchdown during Riley’s entire tenure. That unit needs to be better.

—Rawlinson Stadium is officially open. Which means the first step of USC’s $200-million Athletics West capital project is complete. Reporters were invited last week on a tour of the Trojans’ gleaming new soccer and lacrosse stadium, and let’s just say it’s a significant improvement on their old home, McAlister Field. McAlister could barely fit 1,000 people, didn’t have lights and didn’t even have locker rooms for the team. Rawlinson has a capacity of 2,500, a press box, viewing decks for fans and a video board, while the lockers are customized based on feedback directly from the players. Women’s soccer coach Jane Alukonis made clear to reporters how much Rawlinson would influence the program’s recruiting efforts. USC invested $38 million to make it happen. Now we can see why.

In case you missed it

Michigan hit with major fine for sign-stealing scheme. Jim Harbaugh’s NCAA exile extended 10 years

Micah Banuelos works to make up for lost time as USC aims to build its strongest offensive line

Why USC is not in the AP Top 25 preseason poll

What I’m reading this week

Todd Marinovich reacts as he scores against Michigan in the Rose Bowl game, Jan. 1, 1990.

(Bob Galbraith / Associated Press)

So much has been written about Todd Marinovich over the years, but never has he written about his harrowing journey in his own words until now. In “Marinovich: Outside the Lines of Football, Art, and Addiction”, the former USC quarterback opens up a vein, giving readers an unvarnished look at how he went from child prodigy and “Robo Quarterback” to drug addict and NFL washout. It’s rare that athletes really examine themselves at the level that Marinovich does in this autobiography. He even tries to correct the record about his father, Marv, who he writes was a “thorny scapegoat.”

If you find Marinovich and his story of redemption at all interesting, I’d recommend checking it out.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at [email protected], and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

Chris Waddle: They’ve got a great squad. They bought a lot of players last year and it has taken time for them to get the balance right, but you saw things come together when they won the Club World Cup and I am really expecting them to kick on. They won’t walk it, but they are going to create chances and score a lot of goals.

Nedum Onuoha: They’ll be part of the title race for longer this season than the last. Under Enzo Maresca they have a clear way to play and players who are constantly improving. They’ll be a threat to everyone, which is why they’re champions of the world.

Rachel Brown-Finnis: People scoffed and were very cynical about the Club World Cup but winning it has given them some momentum, especially with the young players they have got. They are such a young team and are still learning, so you are going to see more fluctuations in form than with, say, Liverpool, but they will come into the season flying. I’d be shocked if they don’t win at least one trophy, and you cannot dismiss them as title contenders.

Ellen White: Chelsea put players on these massively long contracts and there are always lots of ins and outs but they have been developing the team they wanted, especially what Maresca has wanted, over the past couple of seasons.

Troy Deeney: They are strong in every position but their inexperience and late start to pre-season after winning the Club World Cup will come back to haunt them in later rounds.

Lindsay Johnson: A busy summer will maybe impact them over a long season.

Chris Sutton: I wonder how much the Club World Cup will take out of them, mentally as much as physically. You need rest in that way too.

Pat Nevin: They look sharp and the new buys are just fabulous – Estevao Willian has every chance of being the best in the business. In the past, Chelsea have relied on Cole Palmer, but maybe not anymore. They will hit the ground running but there is a wall up ahead that they might run into, which is December and January. If you hear anyone say the phrase ‘they have started really well, the summer has not affected them’, then shake your head – the problem comes later.

Last season: Championship winners

Someone has got to buck the growing trend of ‘three up, three straight back down’ from the Championship’s promoted sides, so I am going to say Leeds United will break that glass ceiling.

A club of huge stature, Elland Road will be a bearpit this season and will be a difficult environment for any visiting side. This will hold the key to their survival hopes.

Daniel Farke has a new keeper in Lyon’s Lucas Perri – signed for £15.6m. It may finally be the time Illan Meslier pays the price for too many high-profile errors.

In Dominic Calvert-Lewin – close to signing on a free transfer after leaving Everton – Leeds are acquiring a striker who has proven Premier League pedigree but has been troubled by long injury absences in recent years.

If he can stay fit, Leeds will have a very valuable asset.

Sean Longstaff provides experience and a competitive edge after arriving from Newcastle United, while additions elsewhere have come in the shape of left-back Gabriel Gudmundsson from Lille, centre-back Jaka Bijol from Udinese, and centre-back Sebastiaan Bornauw and forward Lukas Nmecha from Wolfsburg.

It will be tough – but Elland Road may just sway it.

This year promises to be one of the most exciting editions of the Latin Grammys.

As the Latin Recording Academy prepares to unveil the nominations for the award’s 26th edition on Sept. 17, the eligibility period — from June 1, 2024 to May 31, 2025 — includes a number of high-profile albums that not only contributed to the ongoing Latin music boom on a global level, but also pushed the movement forward with their radical choices and genre-defying sounds.

Now a vital part of the Latin pop DNA, the urbano genre continues to redefine and challenge itself, while the rootsy strains of música Mexicana have deservedly gained a privileged seat on the table like never before. The fields of folk, rock, electronica and tropical are still expanding, and artists such as Bad Bunny, Rauw Alejandro, Becky G, Fuerza Regida and Natalia Lafourcade are vying for awards with some of the most ambitious albums of their careers.

De Los assistant editor Suzy Exposito and contributing writer Ernesto Lechner discuss their predictions on the songs and albums that are most likely to be nominated. The following conversation has been edited for length.

Ernesto Lechner: This seems to be an easy year in terms of the two obvious candidates for Latin Gammy history. Bad Bunny’s “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” is the kind of album that defines not only the year it came out — 2025 — but also the entire decade. And Natalia Lafourcade’s mystically tinged “Cancionera” finds the perennial Grammy favorite at the apex of her craft. Going back to Benito’s masterpiece, its conceptual gravitas is almost grander than the songs themselves.

Suzy Exposito: I’m really gunning for Album of the Year for this one. The amount of thought and intention that he placed on this record. The cultural significance of the songs, not just in terms of the history of Puerto Rico, but the way in which he directly engages with the Caribbean diaspora at large through salsa.

E.L.: I love how lovingly he delves beyond salsa to also include plena. He goes back to Rafael Cortijo — the roots, the very essence of boricua culture. And the album has this Beatles-like quality where it’s incredibly commercial — a No. 1 record, the album that everybody is listening to — but there’s no compromise on the artistic front. It’s an ambitious, fully realized statement.

S.E.: Is any album by Benito just another Bad Bunny album? I don’t think he dabbles in filler the way other artists do.

E.L.: The photo of the plastic chairs on the cover could have been taken in the suburbs of Lima, or San Salvador, or Medellín. Benito makes such an inclusive, pan-Latin statement. Which brings me to nominate the title track, “Debí Tirar Mas Fotos,” as a perfect contender for Song of the Year.

S.E.: When I first heard it, I started to cry. It’s a very sentimental song. I was recently in Puerto Rico and went to a plena jam session. It was happening in the street, and you could see people of all ages playing together, singing traditional songs, drinks in hand. There was something really beautiful and timeless about that communal experience.

E.L.: A similar passion for music permeates Lafourcade’s “Cancionera.” Recorded live on analog tape, it has a pristine, wooden-floor kind of warmth. She embodies this mystical character, the cancionera, and it’s a very mature album. I love “Cocos en la Playa” — a frisky, beautiful tropical song that’s so lovely and authentic. For my money, it’s going to be a battle between those two albums in all the major categories.

S.E.: I feel that Natalia Lafourcade is the conservative choice at the Latin Gammys, and it feels bizarre to say it. This is a woman who was making pop-rock in the 2000s. She is a virtuosa, and a master of her craft, but her nomination is predictable because now she represents the gold standard for the Latin Academy.

E.L.: She’s definitely the safest choice between the two. Besides Benito and Natalia, there are a few albums that could very well appear in the major categories, and one of them is Cazzu’s “Latinaje.”

S.E.: That album is such a statement piece. I loved seeing Cazzu break away from the Latin trap sound that she defined and blending it with other things. She’s a great songwriter, and her transformation is fascinating. I think this is the year when many young people are going back to their roots, and then making something new out of it.

E.L.: I had a conversation with Cazzu a few months ago and told her that “Latinaje” made me feel vindicated. As a fellow Argentine, I’ve always felt that we’re an integral part of Latin America. She proved it with this beautiful love letter to so many essential genres. There’s salsa, merengue, South American folk, and “Dolce,” a gorgeous corrido tumbado about that infamous red dress that went viral. And she did it all so genuinely.

S.E.: It may be hard for her, because she came up as an MC. I wonder if the Latin Academy will know in what categories to place her, since this is such a multi-genre album. I mean, she’s an international girl.

E.L.: And of course, Rubén Blades has a new album out, and it’s beautiful as always. “Fotografías” is another sumptuous, big band salsa session. It combines new compositions with songs that Rubén had given to fellow Fania artists in the ‘70s, and now recorded them himself.

S.E.: That’s a great move on his part. “Hey, remember those songs? Yeah — I wrote them!” It sounds ridiculous to say that Rubén is another safe choice, but I can see him in all the big categories. Which brings me to another artist who made a salsa-influenced album: Rauw Alejandro and “Cosa Nuestra.”

E.L.: I love the Afro-Caribbean vibe on “Cosa Nuestra” and the silky duet with bachata star Romeo Santos on “Khé?” I feel this one has been overshadowed a little by Benito’s “Debí Tirar Más Fotos.” My favorite Rauw Alejandro album remains 2021’s “Vice Versa” with the awesome, ‘80s influenced mega-hit “Todo De Ti.”

S.E.: My favorite song on “Cosa Nuestra” is “Se Fue,” the duet with Laura Pausini, which is also like a moody ‘80s song. Raúl has made it a point to polish up his nostalgia for old forms of music. Michael Jackson is one of his most influential artists.

By the way, we should mention Fuerza Regida and their ninth studio album, “111XPANTIA.” They have never been nominated for a Latin Grammy, so I’m rooting for them because they have experimented in a really bold way. Their lead singer, Jesús Ortiz Paz, has shown a lot of intention behind his creative decisions beyond making the same corridos or mining from the same old ‘90s rappers. Their music is cheeky; sonically, it pushes boundaries.

E.L.: You’re never gonna have a bad time with this new wave of música Mexicana stars, considering the staggering melodic richness of their songs and the immediacy of the lyrics.

S.E.: On that note, I think it’s time for Ivan Cornejo to get a Latin Grammy nod for “Mirada” — the production has this ethereal quality that sounds so mature and progressive for the genre. I also want to applaud DannyLux for his ambitious “Leyenda,” which is a psychedelic take on sierreño music, à la George Harrison.

E.L.: What about Becky G? Last year I was asked to write about “Encuentros,” and I just had to surrender to the elegance of this pristine música Mexicana session. Her voice sounds huge on this record.

S.E.: I really hope they don’t silo her in the música Mexicana categories, because this is a very mature album for her. She grew up singing mariachi music with her family, so it’s a beautiful full circle moment for her.

E.L.: “Encuentros” would be a perfect Album of the Year candidate because it celebrates the music of her grandparents but at the same time transcends it. I love that Becky said she’s never looking back after recording her two traditional albums of rancheras and lush Mexican pop.

This brings me to a more general observation: I believe we’re experiencing an era of absolute splendor, and the Latin Grammys nominations are bound to reflect that. It’s like every single Latin American country has blossomed, wearing its most elegant clothes and throwing some amazing parties. The richness and breadth of the music being recorded throughout the continent is off the charts.

S.E.: I agree. Creatively, the last couple of years have been the most exciting for Latin music in a really long time. I think we’re going to remember the 2020s for the bold decade that it is.

Emmy nominations arrive Tuesday, and there will be plenty of time for us to argue about who should win (let’s start with “The Pitt”) and why this could be the year (though probably not) that we’ll have a surprise or two when the trophies are handed out on Sept. 14.

In the meantime, if you love “Severance,” “The White Lotus,” “The Pitt,” “The Studio,” “Hacks” and “Adolescence,” you will find plenty of reasons to smile. These are the shows that are going to steamroll through the nominations. If you belong to the “What We Do in the Shadows” cult and want a tip of the hat for its final season, you’re probably in luck. And if your comic taste embraces the absurd, and you have complicated feelings about air travel, you might be disappointed that Nathan Fielder’s “The Rehearsal” is left out of comedy series, though Fielder could earn a nod for his direction. Attaboy, Captain!

Who else will be flying high when nominations are announced? Let’s take a look.

COMEDY SERIES
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“Hacks”
“Nobody Wants This”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Shrinking”
“The Studio”
“What We Do in the Shadows”

Possible surprise: “The Four Seasons”
Possible “snub”: “What We Do in the Shadows”

“The Bear” won 11 Emmys last year, the most wins ever for a comedy series in a single ceremony. But that record was lost on viewers when “Hacks” won the final Emmy of the evening, besting “The Bear” for comedy series. “The Bear” has been sliding with critics, going from a 92 rating on review aggregator Metacritic for its second season to an 80 for its third and a 73 for its just-released fourth season. Sometimes I wonder if the naysayers are taking the time to consider the whole picture and the patient, deliberate way “The Bear” shows the difficulties in breaking free from addiction and familial dysfunction.

Because the show’s new seasons arrive in June, there’s some overlap between what voters are watching (the latest episodes) and what they’re supposed to be voting for (the episodes that came out a year ago). The new season was exceptional, ending in a showcase for its primary actors and providing well-earned catharsis for their characters. I don’t know if “The Bear” will win any Emmys this year, but the nominations will still be plentiful — and deserved.

COMEDY ACTRESS
Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This”
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”

Possible surprise: Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”
Possible “snub”: Lyonne

As always, it’s an honor to be nominated. And in a category that includes Smart, a nomination will be as far as it goes for the four women joining her. Edebiri and Brunson are sure bets to return. Bell has never been nominated, though she was a delight on “The Good Place.” She should break through for “Nobody Wants This,” the most easily binged contender this Emmy season. But voters could go any number of ways here, opting for past Emmy favorites like Tina Fey (“The Four Seasons”), Kathryn Hahn (“Agatha All Along”) or Uzo Aduba (“The Residence”). Or they could re-up Gomez, who received her first acting nomination last year, or Lyonne, recognized two years ago for the first season of “Poker Face.”

COMEDY ACTOR
Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This”
Seth Rogen, “The Studio”
Jason Segel, “Shrinking”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

Possible surprise: Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Possible “snub”: Segel

As with comedy actress, this category has one less nominee slot this year, which could be bad news for veterans Martin and Ted Danson (“A Man on the Inside”). If Bell earns a nomination for lead actress, how could you leave out Brody? And if you laud Short, how do you neglect Martin? (That happened two years ago, when the field was five.) But if Emmy voters were paying attention — and that is, admittedly, a big if — they’d remember that it’s Martin who carried the emotional weight of the past season of “Only Murders,” his character grieving the guilt from the loss of his longtime stunt double and friend (played by Jane Lynch).

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”

Possible surprise: Megan Stalter, “Hacks”
Possible “snub”: Hahn

There’s more room in the supporting categories, which sport seven spots. That should be good news for Hahn, consistently the most delightful actor working in television today. She could well be a double nominee for her profane, force-of-nature marketing exec on “The Studio” and for her lead turn in the Marvel spinoff “Agatha All Along.” She could also somehow be shut out completely. (Let’s not go there.)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
Paul Downs, “Hacks”
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”

Possible surprise: Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
Possible ”snub”: Urie

“The Four Seasons” was a bit of a snooze, but I was nudged awake every time Domingo came onscreen. Will older voters have a soft spot for this featherweight Gen X friends drama, or were they just watching to take notes on places to visit in upstate New York? Netflix campaigners excel at vacuuming up nominations, so it wouldn’t be surprising if “The Four Seasons” outperforms expectations.

DRAMA SERIES
“Andor”
“The Diplomat”
“The Last of Us”
“Paradise”
“The Pitt”
“Severance”
“Slow Horses”
“The White Lotus”

Possible surprise: “Squid Game”
Possible “snub”: “Paradise”

The first season of “Andor” earned 8 nominations and it could well surpass that for its second and final go-round, one that leaned into a pointed critique of authoritarianism, showing how easily a democracy can erode into fascism. The category’s last spot is a toss-up between the disappointing second season of “Squid Game,” which felt bloated even at just seven episodes, and “Paradise,” another dystopian drama, but a lot more fun, even with all the overwrought ’80s covers.

DRAMA ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
Britt Lower, “Severance”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”

No “snubs.” No surprises. These are the nominees. And jumping ahead, to answer your question: Yes, Kathy Bates has won an Emmy — two, in fact. If you saw her on “American Horror Story: Coven” somehow making a serial killer and slave abuser almost sympathetic, you know that particular Emmy was earned. And I’m not sure if she had more than two minutes of running time for the guest turn on “Two and a Half Men,” for which she won her first Emmy, but watching her spot-on imitation of Charlie Sheen as the ghost of Charlie Harper, I can’t argue with the choice.

DRAMA ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
Adam Scott, “Severance”
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”

Again, no “snubs.” No surprises. Unless the nerds in the actors branch go all in for Diego Luna in “Andor.”

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt”
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat”
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”

Possible surprise: Leslie Bibb, “The White Lotus”
Possible “snub”: Dearden

“The White Lotus” snagged four nominations in this category for its second season, with Jennifer Coolidge winning. I’d expect the widely seen third season to at least equal that and possibly exceed it if voters go with Bibb. Meanwhile, “The Pitt,” featuring an ensemble with more fully realized characters, will have to settle for a one or two nods. (I’ll need Dr. King’s calm, caring support if Dearden isn’t nominated.) What will it take to break through this two-show category blockade? Just an actor owning seven Emmys. Janney doesn’t need a spot on “The Pitt” or “The White Lotus” to make it in, though wouldn’t it be fun if she showed up on the next season of one of these shows?

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses”
Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
Patrick Schwarzenegger, “The White Lotus”
Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
John Turturro, “Severance”

Possible surprise: Patrick Ball, “The Pitt”
Possible “snub”: Schwarzenegger

Do all the “White Lotus” men make the cut too? Possibly. Though, again, it’d be nice to even things out a bit and include Ball, so good as the troubled Dr. Langdon on “The Pitt.” Given the character’s ambiguous fate, this might be the only chance to nominate Ball. Lowden earned his first nomination last year, alongside “Slow Horses” castmate Jonathan Pryce. With the show’s latest season hinging on the emotional relationship between their characters, there’s a chance they both could return.

LIMITED SERIES
“Adolescence”
“Dying for Sex”
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
“The Penguin”
“Say Nothing”

Possible surprise: “Disclaimer”
Possible “snub”: “Say Nothing”

Perhaps I’m underestimating “Disclaimer,” Alfonso Cuarón’s pulpy psychological thriller. Expectations were high; Apple TV+ had the chutzpah to show it at both the Venice and Telluride film festivals last year. But its pleasures and narrative momentum dissipated rather rapidly over the course of its seven episodes. I don’t know anyone who managed to finish it. Yet, in a weak year for limited series, it might make it in on name value alone.

LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, “Disclaimer”
Kaitlyn Dever, “Apple Cider Vinegar”
Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin”
Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex”
Renée Zellweger, “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”

Possible surprise: Ellen Pompeo, “Good American Family”
Possible “snub”: Dever

Zellweger won an Oscar for playing the plucky farmer in “Cold Mountain” and a deteriorating Judy Garland in “Judy.” And, given the film academy’s aversion to humor, it might surprise you to learn that she earned a lead actress nomination for the first “Bridget Jones” movie in 2002. Now, more than two decades later, Zellweger has a shot at her first Emmy nomination for the fourth film in the series. It’s her signature role. Give her the nod and the Emmy too.

LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE ACTOR
Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief”
Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”
Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”

Graham figures to be nominated for “Adolescence” as a producer, actor and writer. (He wrote all four episodes with series co-creator Jack Thorne.) He’s excellent playing Eddie, the shell-shocked dad, particularly in the series’ final episode, which has his character dealing with the aftermath of his son’s arrest, trying to have normal life, a happy birthday, while plagued by doubts that what happened was somehow his fault. Graham deserves the Emmy for the last scene, where Eddie goes into his son’s room, tucks in his teddy bear and whispers, “I’m sorry, son. I should’ve done better.”

LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence”
Deirdre O’Connell, “The Penguin”
Imogen Faith Reid, “Good American Family”
Chloë Sevigny, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
Jenny Slate, “Dying for Sex”
Christine Tremarco, “Adolescence”

Possible surprise: Lesley Manville, “Disclaimer”
Possible “snub”: Reid

Doherty will likely win for the series’ third episode, the taut two-hander with Owen Cooper. But, again, the fourth episode is just as good — maybe even better — featuring a heart-rending turn from Tremarco as the mom trying to hold it together.

LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
Owen Cooper, “Adolescence”
Rob Delaney, “Dying for Sex”
Rhenzy Feliz, “The Penguin”
Peter Sarsgaard, “Presumed Innocent”
Ashley Walters, “Adolescence”

Possible surprise: Clancy Brown, “The Penguin”
Possible “snub”: Sarsgaard

Cooper will soon become the fifth teen actor to win a Primetime Emmy. Next up: A juicy role in Emerald Fennell’s adaptation of “Wuthering Heights.”

Former England captain Michael Vaughan and ex-India wicketkeeper Deep Dasgupta discuss potential squad rotations for England and India before a big fourth Test at Old Trafford next week.

REPORT: Stokes inspires England to defeat stubborn India

Available to UK users only.

Spain were hugely impressive in their 5-0 victory over Portugal. It’s already clear how much better they are this time than they were at the 2022 European Championship, when England beat them in the quarter-finals, and they are only just getting started at this tournament.

Lots of teams have seen changes in personnel since that tournament, and the 2023 World Cup, but none of them have improved to the extent that Spain have.

We saw against Portugal what happens when a team does not adapt at all to the dominant way Spain play – you have to acknowledge you are not going to see much of the ball, sit off them and play on the counter, but Portugal did not really do that and paid the price.

I am not expecting Belgium to make the same mistake, but it is still hard to see them getting anything out of this game. Losing to Italy was a big blow to their hopes of getting out of the group, and this is clearly a much harder task.

Belgium have played Spain four times in the past few months, in the Nations League and in qualifying for these Euros, and lost every time.

A couple of those defeats were heavy ones, but Belgium did cause them a few problems at times too.

I am not sure how close they will get to the world champions this time, but at least they know what to expect.

Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 2-0

I keep changing my mind about how this game might work out for England, and I am sure that will continue right up until kick-off.

I feel like the Lionesses will probably need to be a little conservative if they are to start the defence of their title with a win, but I can see them keeping a clean sheet if they get things right at the back.

Even in this week’s friendly win over Jamaica, England showed some vulnerability at set-pieces, so they are going to have to tighten up and be sharper in those situations.

England lost two key defensive players, goalkeeper Mary Earps and centre-back Millie Bright, in the run-up to the tournament and while our backline is still at world-class level without them, replacing them has caused some disruption to our defensive unit.

So, I am sure there will still be a few issues that will need to be ironed out as this tournament progresses, but hopefully that won’t cost England any goals or points here.

The key for England winning this game will be them being tight at the back – maintaining possession, controlling the game and reducing the number of mistakes.

If they can do that and also create some chances for our forward line then our attackers are so ruthless, they will take care of the rest.

Brown-Finnis’ prediction: 0-1

The panel’s lack of enthusiasm for this category expresses itself in a drastic falloff after the first three contenders, as different from each other as TV movies can be. “Rebel Ridge,” the intense actioner with a should-be star-making performance by Aaron Pierre, is at No. 1. Tied for second are the fourth “Bridget Jones” movie, rom-com “Mad About the Boy,” and “Mountainhead,” which Lorraine Ali calls a “billionaire satire.”

“We all gripe about this category every year,” acknowledges Tracy Brown, “but I think the toughest thing … is the range of projects it encompasses, from the more blockbuster-skewing ‘Rebel Ridge’ to the more firmly indie ‘Am I OK?’. And we all need to be OK with that.”

Kristen Baldwin sums up the frustration on the part of some panelists: “Suggestion: Change the name of this category to Nontheatrical Movies. The concept of a ‘TV Movie,’ as we once knew it, is dead.”

Still, Matt Roush sees something to celebrate at the summit, saying “Mountainhead” “feels like a front-runner on pedigree alone,” citing its writing and direction by ‘Succession’s’ Jesse Armstrong, and its starry cast. “This darkest of farces is also frighteningly timely.”

1. “Rebel Ridge”
2. (tie) “Mountainhead”
2. (tie) “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”
4. “Out of My Mind”
5. “The Gorge”
6. “G20”
7. “Am I OK?”

Los Angeles Times

Lorraine Ali

1. “Mountainhead”

2. “Rebel Ridge”

3. “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”

4. (tie) “G20”

4. (tie) “The Gorge”

“Starring Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman, Cory Michael Smith and Ramy Youssef, the billionaire satire ‘Mountainhead’ slid in just under the eligibility wire. Peacock’s ‘Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy’ is the fourth film in the rom–com saga starring Renée Zellweger and packs the most name recognition.”

Entertainment Weekly

Kristen Baldwin

1. “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”

2. “Mountainhead”

3. “Rebel Ridge”

4. “Out of My Mind”

5. “Am I OK?”

“Suggestion: Change the name of this category to Nontheatrical Movies. The concept of a ‘TV Movie,’ as we once knew it, is dead.”

Los Angeles Times

Tracy Brown

1. “Rebel Ridge”

2. “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”

3. “Mountainhead”

4. “The Gorge”

5. “Am I OK?””

“We all gripe about this category every year, but I think the toughest thing about the TV movie race in the time of streaming is the range of projects it encompasses, from the more blockbuster-skewing ‘Rebel Ridge’ to the more firmly indie ‘Am I OK?’ And we all need to be OK with that.”

Shadow and Act

Trey Mangum

1. “Rebel Ridge”

2. “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”

3. “Mountainhead”

4. “G20”

5. “The Gorge”

“‘Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy’ getting an Emmy nod would seem justified, since it didn’t get a theatrical run in the U.S. It appears to be a lock — just like ‘Mountainhead,’ which is battling ‘Rebel Ridge’ to be at the top.”

TV Guide

Matt Roush

1. “Mountainhead”

2. “Out of My Mind”

3. “Rebel Ridge”

4. “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”

5. “Am I OK?”

“In a traditionally meh field, HBO’s late-May entry ‘Mountainhead’ feels like a front-runner on pedigree alone: written and directed by ‘Succession’s’ Jesse Armstrong, about a gathering of toxic tech titans including Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman, Ramy Youssef and Cory Michael Smith. This darkest of farces is also frighteningly timely.”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. “Rebel Ridge”

2. “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”

3. “Out of My Mind”

4. “Mountainhead”

5. “The Gorge”

“For the first time in what feels like decades, you could make an argument that the TV movie contenders are at least as good as the limited series. I don’t know about you, but I’d rewatch the latest ‘Bridget Jones’ movie twice before ever dipping into ‘Disclaimer’ again.”

Rachel Corsie, Scotland captain

Inevitably there has to be goals. While it’s hard to see any other outcome beyond Celtic winning against Aberdeen, especially when in Glasgow, there is always a tiny bit of optimism when it comes to fandom!

That said, making it through extra-time and enjoying a couple of goals is the best I could manage.

For a team that knows finding success on cup final day so well, Aberdeen will need to be ready to lay bodies on the line and hope that fortune favours them for any other likely outcome.

Prediction: Celtic win on penalties, 2-2 AET

Leanne Crichton, former Scotland midfielder

I anticipate a fiercely contested Scottish Cup clash between Celtic and Aberdeen, with both sides bringing high intensity and emotion to the occasion.

Aberdeen will no doubt be determined to end their season on a high and I expect them to throw everything at the game in search of a statement victory. However, Celtic’s experience and quality, particularly in big matches under Brendan Rodgers, should ultimately shine through.

With their attacking depth and composure in key moments, I’m backing Celtic to deliver another trademark Hampden performance and lift the trophy once again.

Prediction: Aberdeen 1-3 Celtic

The race for the 2025 Emmy Awards is upon us, and your beloved Buzzpeople are back. As TV academy members prepare to cast their nomination ballots next month, our panel of six veteran television journalists, expert awards watchers all, are here to share their insights on the leading contenders — and what less-heralded shows and performers they think also deserve attention.

Click the links below to see the results of our ranked-choice poll in each of nine major categories, as well as our participants’ individual picks.

Drama

Comedy

Limited Series, TV Movie

The panel was flabbergasted when Britt Lower wasn’t nominated for her work in the first season of “Severance”; they have her near the top of the Round 1 list this time. But she may be in for misery as Kathy Bates barely edged her out for the No. 1 spot for her unique spin on “Matlock.”

“Fun fact: It’s been a full decade since an actress on a broadcast TV show won in this category (Viola Davis, for ABC’s ‘How to Get Away With Murder’),” says Kristen Baldwin. “Kathy Bates could (and should) break that dry spell.” Glenn Whipp agrees, quoting Bates’ character: “‘There’s a funny thing that happens when women age … We become damn near invisible.’ Unless, of course, you’re Kathy Bates, in which case, you become the odds-on favorite to win a third Emmy.”

But “while she missed out last time around,” writes Trey Mangum, “Britt Lower is also a top pick here.” Even “Matlock” booster Matt Roush says, while Bates’ performance requires constant trickery, “Don’t count out Britt Lower (‘Severance’) as the equally two-faced Helly R./Helena Eagan, a role with an even higher degree of emotional difficulty.”

At No. 3 is Bella Ramsey, stepping into the solo spotlight in one of TV’s buzziest shows. “‘The Last of Us’ Season 2 shifts its focus to Ellie, and Bella Ramsey has shined as they move from angsty young adult to goofball with a crush to grief-stricken warrior driven by revenge,” says Tracy Brown, also praising Ramsey’s featured guitar-and-singing skills.

More predictions: Drama actor / Drama series

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
4. (tie) Lashana Lynch, “The Day of the Jackal”
4. (tie) Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
6. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
7. Kaitlin Olson, “High Potential”
8. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”
9. Keira Knightley, “Black Doves”
10. Zoe Saldaña, “Lioness”

Los Angeles Times

Lorraine Ali

1. Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin”
2. Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex”
3. Cate Blanchett, “Disclaimer”
4. Julianne Moore, “Sirens”
5. Kaitlyn Dever, “Apple Cider Vinegar”

“Apart from Kathy Bates, the three names at the top of my list — Sharon Horgan as the eldest Garvey sibling in ‘Bad Sisters,’ Britt Lower as the duplicitous Helly R. in ‘Severance’ and Melanie Lynskey as the coldblooded butcher/soccer mom Shauna in ‘Yellowjackets’ — all delivered strong performances in their returning series.”

Entertainment Weekly

Kristen Baldwin

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
4. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
5. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
6. Keira Knightley, “Black Doves”

“Fun fact: It’s been a full decade since an actress on a broadcast TV show won in this category (Viola Davis, for ABC’s ‘How to Get Away With Murder’). Kathy Bates could (and should) break that dry spell with her delightful turn as the folksy-fierce Matty Matlock in CBS’ legal drama. Meanwhile, Keira Knightley deserves a nod for the suspenseful spy thriller ‘Black Doves’ (even if it is more of a comedy than a drama).”

Los Angeles Times

Tracy Brown

1. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
2. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
3. Britt Lower, “Severance”
4. Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
5. Kaitlin Olson, “High Potential”
6. Angela Bassett, “9-1-1”

“‘The Last of Us’ Season 2 shifts its focus to Ellie, and Bella Ramsey has shined as they shift from angsty young adult to goofball with a crush to grief-stricken warrior driven by revenge. Plus, they’ve shown that they’re just as proficient with a guitar as they are with weapons.”

Shadow and Act

Trey Mangum

1. Lashana Lynch, “The Day of the Jackal”
2. Kaitlin Olson, “High Potential”
3. Zoe Saldaña, “Lioness”
4. Britt Lower, “Severance”
5. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
6. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”

“The more time goes on, the more it seems like Kathy Bates will likely receive an Emmy nomination for a broadcast television show, and honestly, she has a great shot at winning. And while she missed out last time around, Britt Lower is also a top pick here.”

TV Guide

Matt Roush

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
4. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
5. Keira Knightley, “Black Doves”
6. Helen Mirren, “MobLand”

“Even if the voters pass on ‘Matlock’ as a series, they’ll have a harder time ignoring Kathy Bates as the crafty lawyer playing a long game. Don’t count out Britt Lower (‘Severance’) as the equally two-faced Helly R./Helena Eagan, a role with an even higher degree of emotional difficulty.”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Lashana Lynch, “The Day of the Jackal”
4. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
5. Keira Knightley, “Black Doves”
6. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”

“‘There’s a funny thing that happens when women age,’ Kathy Bates’ protagonist says early on in the ‘Matlock’ reboot. ‘We become damn near invisible.’ Unless, of course, you’re Kathy Bates, in which case, you become the odds-on favorite to win a third Emmy.”