Polands

Sept. 13 (UPI) — The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO is launching a new military campaign in Poland following an incursion by Russian drones in Polish airspace earlier in the week, the military alliance confirmed in a statement.

Operation Eastern Sentry will “bolster NATO’s posture along the eastern flank” and “involve a range of Allied assets and feature both traditional capabilities and novel technologies, including elements designed to address challenges associated with drones,” the organization confirmed in a release.

Earlier in the week, Polish and Dutch fighter jets scrambled by NATO shot down more than 20 Russian drones over eastern Poland.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk later confirmed the “multiple violations of Polish airspace,” and the country invoked NATO’s Article 4, convening allied nations to respond.

NATO countries, including the United States, have since pledged their full support for Poland.

This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump questioned Thursday whether the Russian drones could have been accidental.

“It could have been a mistake. It could have been a mistake, but also I’m not happy with anything regarding that situation,” Trump told a reporter asking about the situation.

Tusk responded in a Friday social media post.

“We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it,” Tusk said in response to Trump’s comments.

“No, that wasn’t a mistake,” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski added separately on X.

American officials struck a supportive tone Friday.

“The United States stands by our NATO allies in the face of these alarming airspace violations. And rest assured, we will defend every inch of NATO territory,” acting U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Dorothy Shea said in an address to the U.N. Security Council.

The new military exercise is aimed at deterring further Russian military aggression in NATO airspace or on the ground.

“The violation of Poland’s airspace earlier this week is not an isolated incident and impacts more than just Poland. While a full assessment of the incident is ongoing, NATO is not waiting, we are acting,” NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus G. Grynkewich, said in a statement issued by NATO’s Allied Command Operations.

“Eastern Sentry and this new approach will deliver even more focused and flexible deterrence and defense where and when needed to protect our people and deter against further reckless and dangerous acts like what occurred earlier this week,” he said.

Denmark, France and Germany have already committed military aircraft to the operation, with Denmark also pledging an anti-air warfare navy frigate. Meanwhile Britain has “expressed its willingness to support,” according to the NATO statement.

In January, NATO launched a similar operation aimed at deterring Russian operations to sabotage deep-sea cables in the Baltic Sea.

The Baltic Sentry program was also implemented by NATO’s Allied Command Operations and came after an undersea cable connecting Estonia and Finland was cut last December.

The last of the venerable Sukhoi Su-22 Fitter swing-wing strike aircraft in Europe have been officially withdrawn from service. At one time, the Su-22 was a backbone of Warsaw Pact offensive airpower on the continent, with the final examples having been operated by the Polish Air Force, which had flown these impressive jets since the first example was delivered more than 40 years ago.

There was much attention on Poland yesterday after NATO fighters shot down several of the more than a dozen Russian drones that entered the country’s airspace in an unprecedented violation, which you can read about here. Meanwhile, the Polish Air Force held a media event to mark the retirement of the Su-22. A formation of Fitters flew over the various bases where Su-22s in Poland had been stationed. Friend of TWZ, Stephan de Bruijn, was in Poland and provided the following photos of the event, which was not impacted by the drone incident. Today, meanwhile, the Polish Air Force stages an official ceremony to mark the Su-22’s long career.

Powered by a single turbojet engine that propelled it to a top speed of Mach 1.77, the Su-22 was a brutish design that was very much in line with Soviet doctrine of the Cold War era. While its origins lay in the Su-7 Fitter ground-attack aircraft, the Su-22 was a swing-wing type, with only the outer wing panels pivoting. This was a simpler, robust solution to the aerodynamic challenges of variable geometry. Weapons — including nuclear gravity bombs — were carried on 10 external hardpoints. During the Cold War, the Su-22s would have been provided with Soviet-owned tactical nuclear bombs, had things turned hot.

Overall, the Su-22 was built for easy maintenance and combat operations with limited technical support. These factors helped ensure it stayed in service for so long in Poland.

“It is a rugged, reliable fighter — a very good platform for weapons delivery,” Capt. Krzysztof Kreciejewski, a flight commander and instructor pilot, said of the Su-22 in an earlier interview. “The navigation and attack system is still the same 1980s vintage, but it is virtually indestructible. The engine too is very old but very reliable with a remarkable resistance to FOD [foreign object damage].”

Poland received a total of 90 single-seat Su-22M4s and 20 two-seat Su-22UM3Ks, which were deployed within four tactical bomber regiments based at Piła, Powidz, Mirosławiec, and Swidwin. The first example arrived in Poland in August 1984. By the time the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Su-22s were also serving with Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Hungary, with Soviet examples (known as Su-17s) also serving in some of those countries.

After Poland joined NATO in 1999, its Su-22s underwent limited upgrades, and the air force decided to continue flying the Soviet-type, as well as the MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter. Among others, the Fitters received NATO-standard avionics and more modern VHF/UHF communication systems. Also, service life was extended by 10 years on 18 of the aircraft, with work performed in-country, at Bydgoszcz, from 2014. In the process of modernization, the jets traded their former green and brown camouflage for a low-visibility two-tone gray scheme.

At one stage, it was expected the Polish Fitters would be withdrawn in 2016, but they soldiered on, even after the introduction of F-16C/D Block 50/52 fighters, among the most advanced of their type anywhere in Europe. However, with Poland being the last Su-22 operator in Europe, and with production long since ceased, maintaining the fleet — which was eventually concentrated at Mirosławiec, in northwestern Poland — became increasingly difficult.

While the Su-22’s original role was as a low-level strike specialist, with a secondary reconnaissance mission, toward the end of its Polish service, it was also used for adversary work. This involved the jets flying as ‘red air,’ as well as launching aerial targets, during air force and ground-based air defense training scenarios. Such work wasn’t without hazards, with one Su-22 being accidentally shot down during an exercise by a Polish Kub (SA-6 Gainful) surface-to-air missile in 2003.

Aside from second-line duties, Polish Fitters retained a combat role until the end. This included anti-surface strikes over the Baltic Sea as part of defensive operations. Meanwhile, offensive counter-air missions included supporting units of the Polish Land Forces, Navy, and special forces, as well as assisting allies during exercises. One limitation was the removal of time-expired Soviet-era guided air-to-ground missiles, leaving the Su-22s armed with free-fall bombs, rockets, and guns. For self-defense, R-60 (AA-8 Aphid) air-to-air missiles could be fitted on special underwing pylons.

Outside of Europe, the Fitter’s days are likely also numbered. The other last remaining operators are found in Angola, Libya (where only a handful of aircraft likely remain active), and Vietnam. Others are flown by Iran, Syria, and Yemen, where their current status after Israeli airstrikes this year, on top of other recent conflicts, must be considered questionable.

The retirement of the last Polish Su-22s was finally enabled by the arrival of the Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50 light combat aircraft, acquired as part of a multi-million-dollar South Korean arms package. The initial 12 FA-50GFs (representing the initial Block 10 configuration) were delivered to Poland between July and December 2023. Another 36 of the more advanced FA-50PL (Block 20) aircraft are also on order.

At Mirosławiec, the Fitters also make way for the Bayraktar TB2 uncrewed aerial system, with the base becoming a tactical drone hub, as these assets take on a more important role with the Polish Air Force. The TB2s will ultimately be joined by three MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones, providing much expanded capabilities.

In terms of crewed combat aircraft, the Polish Air Force has already donated 14 of its MiG-29s to Ukraine, leaving 14 more based at Malbork, where they are expected to serve until 2027. A contract was recently signed for the upgrade of the country’s 47 surviving F-16s to the F-16V configuration, as you can read about here. In the most ambitious expression of the service’s modernization, 32 F-35As are also on order, with a first operational squadron due to be established at Łask, around 2025-26.

Altogether, these are examples of the staggering Polish defense spending spree that has now been going on for years, as the country works to modernize its entire armed forces, with a particular eye toward meeting threats from Russia.

There is some irony, therefore, in the fact that the Polish Air Force today bids farewell to its long-serving Su-22s, provided by Moscow at a time when Europe’s geopolitical landscape looked entirely different.

With thanks to Rich Cooper/COAP Media. You can see more of his photos on Instagram.

Contact the author: [email protected]

RUSSIAN drones have flown into Polish airspace, prompting NATO jets to be scrambled in response.

Polish and allied aircraft were activated in the early hours of Wednesday to ensure the county’s airspace is protected.

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It comes as Moscow continues to barrage Ukraine with relentless drone strikes.

Poland, a member of the NATO alliance, shares a border with Ukraine and has been one of Kyiv’s key international backers.

Warsaw’s operational command shared the tense news in a post on X.

“Polish and allied aircraft are operating in our airspace, while ground-based air defence and radar reconnaissance systems have been brought to the highest state of readiness,” they said.

The Ukrainian Air Force earlier said on Telegram that Russian drones were tearing towards the city of Zamosc.

It is not clear how many drone entered Polish airspace.

This comes after a Russian air killed at least 24 people and injured 19 others in the Donetsk region.

A glide bomb struck the village of Yarova, which was home to around 1,700 people before the war.

Valium Filashkin, head of Donetsk Military Administration, said: “This is not military action – this is pure terrorism.”

Vladimir Putin’s forces continue to wreak devastation across Ukraine as Moscow‘s brutal full-scale invasion grinds on.

On Sunday, Russia unleashed a vicious barrage against Ukraine that killed four people.

A two-month old baby was among the victims of the barbaric strikes.

Poland is a member state of NATO, giving it protections under the Article 5 mutual defence agreement.

This means that an attack on one member state is deemed an attack on all, obliging countries including the US, the UK and France to come to their aid if the clause is invoked.

Pressure is mounting on the United States and allies to impose deeper sanctions on Russia amid the intensifying onslaught.

Speaking on the White House lawn after the attacks this weekend, Donald Trump said he’s “not happy with the whole situation”.

Sunday’s attack saw 805 drones and a dozen ballistic and cruise missiles fired at some of Ukraine‘s largest cities.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko told The New York Post the “barbaric attack proved we have to do whatever it takes to stop Russian war machine fuelled by oil and gas revenue”.

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Tusk called the vote as he seeks to regain momentum after his ally lost the presidential election earlier this month.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says his pro-European Union coalition has the mandate to govern ahead of a crucial confidence vote in parliament.

Tusk called the vote as he seeks to regain momentum after his ally Rafal Trzaskowski was defeated by nationalist Karol Nawrocki in the country’s presidential election earlier this month, prompting predictions of his government’s demise.

Tusk, whose fractious centrist coalition built around his Civic Platform party holds 242 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, or lower house, is expected to survive the vote, which could potentially trigger early elections, not scheduled until 2027.

“Governing Poland is a privilege,” Tusk told politicians ahead of the vote on Wednesday. “We have a mandate to take full responsibility for what’s going on in Poland.”

He listed higher defence spending and a cut in his government’s visa issuance for migrants as major achievements since he took power in October 2023 from the nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS).

But a win is unlikely to bring the “new beginning” the 68-year-old leader is hoping for after this month’s presidential race left his coalition rattled, raising questions over his leadership against a backdrop of surging support for the far-right in the country of 38 million.

Following the presidential election, there has been growing criticism that Tusk’s government has underdelivered on its campaign promises, failing to fulfil pledges of liberalising abortion laws, reforming the judiciary and raising the tax-free income threshold.

Tensions within the governing coalition, particularly with the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which advocates for socially conservative values and wants more curbs on immigration, could spell more trouble.

President-elect Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, is also an EU-sceptic who is expected to work to boost the opposition PiS party that backed him.

An SW Research poll for Rzeczpospolita daily showed that about a third of Poles thought Tusk’s government would not survive until the end of its term in 2027.

‘Is it the end of Tusk?’

Polish presidents can veto legislation passed by the parliament, a power that will likely hamper reform efforts by Tusk’s government, such as the planned introduction of same-sex partnerships or easing a near-total ban on abortion.

It could also make ties with Brussels difficult, particularly over rule of law issues, as Nawrocki has expressed support for the controversial judicial reforms put in place by the previous PiS government.

Ties with Ukraine could become more tense as Nawrocki opposes Ukraine’s membership of NATO and has been critical of the support for Ukrainian refugees in Poland.

Nawrocki is expected to begin his five-year mandate formally on August 6 once the election result has been legally validated.

The election commission has found evidence of counting errors in favour of Nawrocki in some districts.

Parliament speaker Szymon Holownia, a government ally, said there was “no reason to question the result”.

Tusk previously served as Polish prime minister from 2007-2014 and then as president of the European Council from 2014–2019. He resumed his leadership of the country as prime minister again in December 2023.

On May 30, the last day of Poland’s presidential campaign, Karol Nawrocki laid flowers at a monument that has long sparked controversy.

The 14-metre tall statue commemorating the Volhynian massacre depicts a crowned eagle, the symbol of Poland, with a cross shape cut out from its chest. In that cross, a child’s body is impaled on a trident, representing the Ukrainian coat of arms, the “tryzub”.

The statue was revealed in July 2024 in Domostawa, a village in southeastern Poland close to Ukraine’s border. It commemorates the ethnic cleansing of Poles by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army in the Polish-Ukrainian borderland between 1943 to 1945. While statistics vary, it is assumed that between 40,000 and 100,000 people perished in the massacre.

But before Domostawa accepted the monument, several cities, including Rzeszow, Torun and Stalowa Wola, refused to host it due to the brutality of the sculptor’s vision and in order not to damage relations with Ukraine.

To Nawrocki, formerly the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, a state research institute, the scene felt like the place to end his presidential bid.

“The Volhynian Massacre was a cruel crime. The methods of murdering Poles were cruel. It was a neighbourly crime, because neighbours murdered neighbours. It was also a robbery, because Ukrainian nationalists often robbed their neighbours,” Nawrocki said.

“We have the right to talk about it. I have the right to talk about it as the president of the Institute of National Remembrance and I will have this right as the president of Poland after June 1.”

Dear President @ZelenskyyUa, thank you for your message. I am looking forward to countinue partnership of our countries, based on mutual respect and understanding. I believe it requires not only good dialogue but also solving overdue historical issues. Poland has been Ukraine’s…

— Karol Nawrocki (@NawrockiKn) June 3, 2025

During his ultimately successful campaign, President-elect Nawrocki, a nationalist, said that Poles should have priority in queues for doctor’s appointments and called to limit Ukrainians’ access to benefits. He also said he was against Ukraine joining NATO and the European Union, a stark contrast from Poland’s traditional position of support as Kyiv fights off Russian forces.

Warsaw’s support, Nawrocki believes, should depend on Ukraine making amends for the Volhynian massacre, which could include the exhumation of Polish victims.

Following the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022, Poland, under the rule of the Law and Justice – or PiS – party, which supported Nawrocki, accepted more than a million Ukrainian refugees and backed Ukraine with weapons as Kyiv’s other European allies, such as Germany, hesitated.

Thousands of Poles hosted Ukrainians in their homes as Poland became the loudest pro-Ukrainian voice in the EU and NATO.

But while PiS has a long history of supporting Ukraine throughout its revolutions in 2004 and 2014, and following the Russian onslaught, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is now taking hold.

‘Playing the anti-Ukrainian card’

In the first round of the presidential election, 51 percent of Poles voted for candidates who had touted positions at odds with Ukraine’s ambitions. Even the liberal candidate from the Civic Platform, Rafal Trzaskowski, suggested that Ukrainians who do not pay taxes should be deprived of child benefits.

According to research by the Mieroszewski Centre, in 2022, 83 percent of Ukrainians had a positive opinion of Poles, but by November 2024, this number fell to 41 percent.

In January 2025, 51 percent of Poles said that Ukrainian refugees receive too much support. Almost half of respondents said that difficult historical issues should be solved to improve Polish-Ukrainian relations.

Research published in February 2025 by CBOS found that just 30 percent of Poles had a positive attitude towards Ukrainians, down from 51 percent in 2023, while 38 percent had a negative attitude towards their Ukrainian neighbours, up from 17 percent in 2023.

“I think that Poland should continue its support for Ukraine, but I am disappointed with the position of the Ukrainian state. If not for Poland’s strong and decisive reaction at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, which encouraged Europe’s support, Ukraine would not survive. And then in front of the United Nations General Assembly, Ukraine’s president compared Poland to Russia,” said Nawrocki voter Michal, a 33-year-old travel guide.

“Ukrainians never showed any remorse for the Volhynian massacre. And I find it unacceptable that figures like Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych, who are responsible for massacres of Poles during World War II, are considered Ukraine’s national heroes,” Michal added, referring to the Ukrainian nationalist leaders and Nazi collaborators.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine considers the decision of the Sejm of the Republic of Poland to establish 11 July as a Day of Remembrance for the victims of the so-called “genocide committed by the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/c5nu1hPaDl

— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) June 5, 2025

Michal’s views are not uncommon.

Meanwhile, grudges against Ukrainian refugees have swelled.

“In February and March 2022, in a few weeks, Poland became a country that was no longer culturally uniform. For many Poles, who had no experience of diversity, the very fact that suddenly their neighbours spoke a different language became difficult to accept,” said Rafal Pankowski from the antiracism Never Again association.

Currently, more than 50 percent of Poles declare solidarity with Ukrainian refugees, down from 90 percent in 2022, he said, citing his organisation’s polling data.

“One of the reasons why support for Ukrainians has fallen is right-wing propaganda and conspiracy theories spread on social media. We have been monitoring the situation since the beginning of the war, and it has been clear that in the long run, playing the anti-Ukrainian card will bring the far right political benefits. And this is what happened in this campaign.”

Igor Krawetz, a Ukrainian commentator who has lived in Poland for almost 20 years, said that he is surprised at the speed of the shift. Two years ago, open hostility towards Ukrainians was viewed as inappropriate, even among the right, he said.

“Polish anti-Ukrainian xenophobia is no longer limited to spaces where Ukrainian migrants compete with Poles, such as low-skilled jobs. Now xenophobia is expressed by the middle class, too, who see that Ukrainians moved businesses to Warsaw, buy expensive apartments and are no longer poor people that need the Poles’ support,” he added.

The shift brings back memories for Krawetz.

Polish solidarity with Ukraine ended in disillusionment and mutual accusations in 2004, when Poles supported Ukraine’s Orange Revolution and in 2014, after the Euromaidan.

“Poles have got used to seeing Ukraine’s misfortunes as their own pain. For the past 20 years, during crises, there have been romantic waves of brotherly support that lasted for several months and were always followed by complaints: ‘I helped you in 2022 and you still haven’t won the war’ type of thing,” Krawetz said.

“I have survived the first and second wave of solidarity with Ukraine. I will survive the last one, too. It always comes back full circle.”

Nationalist populist Karol Nawrocki will be Poland’s next president after a tight election race. His victory marks a significant boost for the populist tide in Europe and around the globe.

Electoral Commission results on Monday showed that Nawrocki, backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, won 50.89 percent of the vote. His rival, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, received 49.11 percent in Sunday’s run-off.

The close result is being viewed as an illustration of the deep divide in Polish society between conservative forces, often linked to the powerful Catholic Church, and liberals, largely based in major cities.

Although the government holds the majority of power in Poland, Nawrocki is expected to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor Andrzej Duda from PiS in using the president’s veto power to block Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s agenda.

Tusk’s centrist coalition government has pledged to reform the judicial system, which PiS revamped during eight years in power that came to an end in 2023. PiS’s changes caused a bitter fight with the European Union, which said they politicised the judiciary and were undemocratic.

The government has also struggled to ease restrictions on abortion and institute LGBTQ rights due to Duda’s resistance.

Nawrocki has pledged to protect Poland’s sovereignty from what he calls excessive interference from Brussels while he also has been critical of Ukraine’s hopes of joining the EU and NATO.

Although he remains supportive of Kyiv in its war against Russia, Nawrocki has also promised to put the interests of Poles above the large number of Ukrainian refugees that the country has taken in.

Therefore, his victory could complicate Warsaw’s relations with the EU and impact its support for Ukrainian refugees.

United States President Donald Trump gave Nawrocki his blessing before the election, and right-wing forces in Europe, who were disappointed by the defeat of nationalist George Simion in Romania’s presidential election last month, have been quick to celebrate.

Here is how the world reacted to his victory:

Poland

Trzaskowski conceded defeat and congratulated Nawrocki on his win but also cautioned him to represent all Poles. “This win is an obligation, especially in such difficult times. Especially with a close result. Don’t forget that,” Trzaskowski said on X.

Slawomir Mentzen, leader of the far-right Confederation party, who came third in the May 18 first round of the election, told Nawrocki: “I am really counting on you not forgetting those millions of voters who did not vote for you in the first round but did yesterday. These people wanted change.”

“The referendum on the dismissal of the Tusk government has been won,” PiS lawmaker Jacek Sasin wrote on X.

European Union

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent her congratulations, saying she is “confident” that “very good cooperation” with Warsaw would continue.

“We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home,” she said on X.

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he looks forward to “fruitful cooperation” with Poland.

“By reinforcing one another on our continent, we give greater strength to Europe in global competition and bring the achievement of real and lasting peace closer,” Zelenskyy said.

Germany

President Frank-Walter Steinmeier congratulated Nawrocki and urged Poland to “cooperate closely based on democracy and rule of law”, stating that the two neighbours must cooperate to “ensure a future of security, freedom and prosperity for Europe”.

NATO

Secretary-General Mark Rutte said he was looking forward to working with Nawrocki on “making sure that with Poland, NATO becomes even stronger than it is today”.

France

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen welcomed the result of the election, branding it as “a rebuff to the Brussels oligarchy, which intends to impose a standardisation of legislation on member states, contrary to any democratic will”, and the European Commission’s “authoritarian policies and federalist ambitions [that] are brutalising national sovereignty”.

Hungary

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who seeks to make himself a figurehead for Europe’s nationalist populist forces, congratulated Nawrocki on his “fantastic victory”. Orban added that he is “looking forward to working with [Nawrocki] on strengthening Visegrad cooperation”, a reference to the four-nation Visegrad Group, in which the Czech Republic and Slovakia are also members.

Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto called Nawrocki’s success a “fresh victory for [European] patriots”.

Romania

“Poland WON,” Simion, whose failure to win the Romanian presidency disappointed nationalist and eurosceptic forces, wrote on X.

June 2 (UPI) — Karol Nawrocki, a populist conservative backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, has won Poland’s presidential runoff election, according to official results released Monday.

Eyes across the country, Europe and even North America were watching the race in Poland, where the presidency is a somewhat symbolic position — especially compared to the prime minister and their executive powers — but one that does come with veto authority.

The election of Nawrocki also suggests a political shift in the deeply divided nation.

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Kazimierz Trzaskowski — of Prime Minister Donald Tusk‘s Civic Platform party — had narrowly beaten Nawrocki, a conservative historian who ran as an independent, in the first round of voting on May 18, but failed to gain a majority of the votes to win the presidency outright.

In Sunday’s runoff, the roles were reversed, and it was Nawrocki who secured the narrow victory. According to official results, Nawrocki, 42, won 50.89% of the vote. Trzaskowski, 53, received 49.11%.

Of the 20.8 million cast votes — representing 71.6% of Poland’s population — nearly 37,000 votes separated the two candidates.

Nawrocki was backed by the nationalist opposition Law and Justice party.

This is a developing story.

DEVELOPING STORYDEVELOPING STORY,

Final vote count gives conservative candidate 50.89 percent, while his liberal rival receives 49.11 percent, AP reports.

Conservative eurosceptic Karol Nawrocki is expected to win Poland’s presidential run-off election with all votes now counted, according to media reports.

The Associated Press news agency, citing the final vote count, reported on Monday that Nawrocki won 50.89 percent of votes in the tight race against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who received 49.11 percent.

The Polish news website, Onet, reported the same results on its website.

The Polish Electoral Commission said on its website that it had counted all of the votes. The commission had said earlier that official results would be out on Monday morning.

Nawrocki, 42, a historian and amateur boxer who ran a national remembrance institute, campaigned on a promise to ensure economic and social policies favour Poles over other nationalities, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine.

While Poland’s parliament holds most power, the president can veto legislation, and the vote was being watched closely in Ukraine as well as Russia, the United States and across the European Union.

The ruling party’s pro-European Union candidate and a right-wing nationalist are set for a decisive second-round showdown on June 1.

Rafal Trzaskowski from Poland’s ruling centrist Civic Coalition (KO) is narrowly ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, in the first round of the country’s presidential election.

It sets up a close battle to determine if the nation stays on a pro-European path or leans closer to admirers of United States President Donald Trump.

On Sunday, Trzaskowski, the liberal Warsaw Mayor, placed first with 30.8 percent of the vote, ahead of Nawrocki, a conservative historian, who had 29.1 percent, the Ipsos exit poll showed. If confirmed, the result would mean the two will go head-to-head in a run-off vote on June 1.

“We are going for victory. I said that it would be close, and it is close,” Trzaskowski told supporters. “There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us and we need determination.”

Nawrocki also told supporters he was confident of victory in the second round.

The campaign has largely revolved around foreign policy at a time of heightened security concerns in Poland, a key member of NATO and the European Union bordering war-torn Ukraine, and fears that the US’s commitment to European security could be wavering in the Trump era.

Commenting on X, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has forged a pro-European track, said the next two weeks will decide the future of Poland.

In Poland, the president has the power to veto laws. A Trzaskowski victory in the second round would enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial reforms introduced by PiS that critics say undermined the independence of the courts.

However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 would be set to continue. Until now, PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda has stymied Tusk’s efforts.

If the exit poll is confirmed, other candidates in the first round – including Slawomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the centre-right Poland 2050, and Magdalena Biejat from the Left – will be eliminated.

Two updated polls that take into account partial official results will be published later Sunday evening and early on Monday morning

Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland’s role as a major player at the heart of Europe in contrast with PiS, which was frequently at odds with Brussels over rule-of-law concerns.

Social issues have also been a major theme on the campaign trail, with Nawrocki framing himself as a guardian of conservative values and Trzaskowski drawing support from liberal voters for his pledges to back abortion and LGBTQ rights.

Krakow, Poland – As Adrian Zandberg, leader of Poland’s left-wing Razem (Together) party, prepared to speak to the large crowd at his rally in one of Krakow’s central squares on Wednesday this week, he wasn’t just getting ready to contest Sunday’s presidential election.

Speaking with a revolutionary zeal to the cheering crowd, Zandberg put forward his ideals: Quality public services, affordable housing for all, investment in education and science and the end to a toxic right-wing duopoly in Polish politics.

Zandberg is one of two presidential hopefuls of Poland’s left – the other is Magdalena Biejat of the Lewica (The Left) party. Between the two of them, they represent a political force that has long remained on the margins of politics. Sunday’s contest is also a fight for the leadership of this movement which is popular with urban, generally younger people.

Opinion polls suggest that the final presidential battle – first-round voting takes place on Sunday – will be between the two favourites, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, representatives of right-wing parties Civic Platform and Law and Justice (PiS) which have dominated the country’s political scene for the past 20 years.

Nevertheless, Zandberg was confident and full of passion as he addressed his supporters.

“I believe that we can build a different, better Poland. I believe that we can afford for Poland to become a country with decent public services,” he declared. “That we can afford for people in the 20th economy in the world to stop dying in line to see a doctor. That we can afford for young, hard-working people to be able to rent a roof over their heads for a normal price, so that they can afford to start a family.”

Calling the current system “unconstitutional” and one which “explodes with inequalities”, he called for a change. The system, he said, “is a threat to the future of Poland”.

Like other left-wing politicians, he has been a staunch critic of the neoliberal views of the two main candidates, their lack of commitment to securing affordable housing for people (which is a constitutional right), attempts to privatise the healthcare system, and their seeming embrace of rising anti-migrant sentiment within the country.

Having a ‘real’ effect on Polish politics

The day before, in another square in central Krakow, Biejat, Zandberg’s main competitor for the hearts and minds of Poland’s left and deputy marshal of the Senate, stood before her own crowd of supporters. Unlike Zandberg’s Razem, her party, Lewica, is part of the ruling Civic Coalition along with the centre-right Civic Platform.

Lewica’s decision to enter the coalition government in late 2023 prompted criticism among some on the left, and has become the main bone of contention between the two leftist presidential candidates.

Speaking at her rally on Tuesday, Biejat defended the decision to join the coalition as the right one. According to her, it has allowed her party to have a real effect on politics in Poland.

She listed their achievements: “It is thanks to Lewica being in the government that we managed to introduce a pension supplement for widows. We managed to introduce a pilot programme which shortened working hours. We managed to increase the funeral allowance,” Biejat said.

“We have changed the definition of rape, so that women no longer have to explain to the judges that it was not their fault that someone had hurt them. Thanks to us, parents of premature babies have received additional leave days for each week spent in hospital with a small child.”

The Krakow crowd, albeit smaller than Zandberg’s, cheered Biejat’s declarations of support for the rights of women, LGBTQ people and those with disabilities and for affordable housing.

A fragile resurgence?

The two-term presidency of the left-wing Aleksander Kwasniewsk, an independent but also one of the founders of the Democratic Left Alliance, was highly successful. Under his presidency, which ended in 2005, Poland joined NATO and the European Union and introduced a new constitution. Since his departure, however, the left has been in crisis.

While the ideals of the left-wing candidates barely differ from those of left-wing candidates in other European countries, their appeal in Poland is limited these days as people have become disillusioned with immigration, and resentment towards the one million Ukrainian refugees taking shelter from the war with Russia has grown. According to Politico’s latest aggregate poll, the two leftist candidates are each expected to win 5 percent of the vote.

In the most recent European election in 2024, Lewica secured just 6.3 percent of the vote, the lowest score in its history. In the most recent parliamentary elections of 2023, the party secured just 5.3 percent of the vote. The question now is whether leftist parties can start to make a comeback.

Some observers see signs of a possible resurgence – but it is fragile.

“Any result above 5 percent for each of the candidates [in the upcoming presidential contest] would be a good score. And below 4 percent – a bad one,” said Bartosz Rydlinski, a political scientist at Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw.

He credits Zandberg with “restarting the Razem party project” by appealing to younger voters. “Recent studies show that he is competing with Slawomir Mentzen [the highly popular ultraconservative and free-market-enthusiast leader of the Confederation Party] to be number one among the youngest voters.

“Magdalena Biejat, on her part, represents women from the middle class, living in large cities. She is their mirror image. The election will show which one of them is more popular,” Rydlinski said.

Limited appeal

At the last presidential election five years ago, Robert Biedron of Lewica, who now serves as a Polish member of the European parliament (MEP), won just 2.2 percent of the vote. This time around, the left is expected to do better, but its appeal remains limited.

According to experts, the left has lost much of its traditional support base to the nationalist conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, which attracted voters with generous welfare packages. In this presidential election, Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by PiS, is expected to take 25 percent of the vote in the first round, according to Politico’s aggregate poll.

This is despite the fact that Nawrocki has abandoned Law and Justice’s commitment to social welfare and has embraced free-market thinking with a focus on strengthening an alliance with the US while distancing Poland from the EU.

His main competitor,Rafał Trzaskowski of the centre-right Civic Platform, is polling at 31 percent.

“The left is continuously trying to win back pro-social Law and Justice voters, but so far it has failed,” Jakub Majmurek, a commentator at the left-wing Krytyka Polityczna media outlet, told Al Jazeera. “First of all, because these voters are often calculating and feel that the Law and Justice is a much more credible welfare provider than the weak left.

“Second, these voters are largely pro-church and much more conservative when it comes to social issues than the left.”

A good result for the left in the Sunday election could have the effect of bringing left-wing politics back to the agenda, analysts say, and make some inroads into reversing the long-term trend of far-right and centre-right politicians dominating government.

“If the combined result of Biejat and Zandberg is around 10 percent, in the second election round, Trzaskowski or even Nawrocki will have to try to claim this left-wing electorate somehow,” Majmurek explained.

“That would be the best scenario for the left. Especially if both candidates receive a similar percentage of the vote. That would show that none of them is a hegemon and cannot build the left without the other.”