opinion

The Strategic Convergence Between the United States and Argentina

For Trump followers, his offer of a 20 to 40 billion economic assistance to Argentina came as a shock. For a government that emphasizes not spending American tax payers’ money abroad the record high foreign debt defaulter and agrobusiness competitor Argentina is a puzzling choice.

However, there are profound reasons for this outcome. In what follows, I will try to explain them. The first two motives are the most obvious ones, but I promise that the following two are the ones that are not that apparent though interesting to read.

The first reason, and more obvious one, is the ideological congruence between the executives. The Argentine president Milei shares Trump’s anti woke ideology, it has always been a Trump supporter and shares with him a deep-seated rejection for leftist governments and ideologies. However, whereas Trump is an economic nationalist, Milei brands himself as an “anarcho-capitalist” that profoundly believes that the powers of free market should reign without interference in order for economies and societies to succeed.

Secondly, next Sunday Milei will face a crucial midterm election. In a last September legislative vote in the crucial Buenos Aires province (that accounts for 40% of Argentina’s population) he lost against his arch rivals, the Peronist Party. The Peronist coalition, that governed Argentina for the most part of the last 25 years, held a leftist ideology that privileged bilateral relations with China over the US and that is a staunch critic of Trump’s policies. The following Monday, the Argentine peso faced very strong devaluation pressures that ended up drying up the Central Bank’s reserves.

Third, the US grand strategy has been under a deep transformation, at least since Obama`s presidency. It has been progressively withdrawing from the Middle East while focusing more on China. It has also demanded the Europeans (and also its allies in East Asians) to up their defence spending. This relative withdrawal is somewhat compensated by an increase of attention in its own neighbourhood, the Americas. It is under this lens that we can understand the recent US military actions against the Maduro regime in Venezuela, the suspension of economic aid to leftist governed Colombia and the huge tariffs applied to also leftist governed Brazil. Being Mexico also governed by a (somewhat pragmatic) leftist party and having in Chilean President Boric a staunch critic of Trump`s policies, the US is left with very few friends in the region. Right now, the only welcoming ally from a large country in the Americas is Argentina`s Milei.

Fourth, from the Argentine side, a change in the strategic outlook in part of its elites is also paving the way for an alliance with the US. The current Argentine executive, in its quest to achieve macroeconomic stability has as its most coveted goal the dollarization of the economy. This is the endpoint of the pro market economic reforms under way. At the same time, the Milei government supports the US and Israel in a fashion unseen in Argentine history. Worldwide, there are not many countries supporting the Trump agenda as thoroughly as Argentina.

There are strong indications that the deepening of the alliance between the US and Argentina is under way. However, near future events might change this course. Next month there will be presidential elections in Chile, while Colombia and Brazil will have theirs in May and October respectively. A win by the opposition in any of these countries will devalued the strategic relevance that Argentina holds right now. Secondly, will Trump successors double in an alliance with a country that has never been considered strategic for US interests? Finally, there is the question of Milei`s political future in Argentina. Good part of his ambitions and of Argentina’s grand strategy will be risked in next elections.

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We must renew our commitment to humanitarian action and norms

This week, legislators from over 120 national parliaments are meeting in Geneva to assess the world’s collective response to humanitarian crises.

Unprecedented rates of armed violence and forced displacement, together with climate change, public health emergencies, and food insecurity, have combined with the disintegration of our systems for international solidarity.

This has created a toxic cocktail that is causing untold suffering and costing lives.

The numbers are staggering. More than 122 million people are forcibly displaced, and almost 310 million people need humanitarian assistance.

As is so often the case, the vulnerable are the most brutally affected. One in every five children in the world—approximately 400 million—are living in or fleeing conflict zones.

Children caught up in crises often face the double jeopardy of losing their homes and their education.

Before entering parliament, I was a teacher, drawn to the profession because I knew how crucial education is to children.

But education is often the first casualty during crises and too frequently neglected by an overstretched and underfunded humanitarian system.

As a result, 234 million crisis-affected children and adolescents need urgent educational support, and over 85 million are out of school.

Depriving children in these contexts of an education robs them not just of the opportunity to learn the vital skills they need for life but also to a platform to receive life-saving services like food, water, and basic health care.

Thankfully, in many crisis situations where governments lack the resources to provide education, local and international non-government organisations step in and help ensure that children get the chance to go to school.

However, the drastic cuts to development and humanitarian assistance that many countries have made this year are putting this vital work at risk.

Projections indicate that total official development assistance for education may decline by USD3.2 billion by 2026, representing a nearly 25 percent decrease from 2023 – which could potentially displace another six million children from school in the coming months.

Earlier this year, humanitarian appeals were slashed by up to 90 percent in Sudan and Chad, leaving 33 million adults and children in need of life-saving assistance, without any support.

Despite a record number of refugees, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, has received only a quarter of the funding that it needs in 2025, forcing it to halt or suspend about $1.4 billion in programs and to slash more than one-third of its education budget.

In the refugee camps that host Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, up to half a million boys and girls are now left without any form of schooling.

Ninety per cent of the world’s refugees live in low- and middle-income countries whose education systems already struggle to ensure every child is in school and learning.

In such cases, it is evident that host countries need support from the international community to provide the refugees they are hosting with access to education.

Education is also what crisis-affected communities want. Displaced parents and children consistently identify access to quality education as one of their highest-priority concerns.

Despite the enduring hardships they face, the determination of displaced communities to provide their children with an education is inspiring. They deserve our support.

That is why I am proud that Denmark, where I am a member of the national parliament, has affirmed its commitment to provide aid funding at or above the UN target of 0.7% of its gross national income (GNI).

With crises and conflicts multiplying around the world, it is more necessary than ever to strengthen international solidarity, and I hope that Denmark can inspire others to renew their commitment to solidarity through development cooperation and humanitarian assistance.

Tragically, a lack of funding is not the only threat to humanitarian response. The most fundamental humanitarian norms are being challenged in today’s war zones.

Current conflicts show, in appalling and devastating ways, the significant challenges facing international humanitarian law in providing effective and meaningful protection for people affected by armed conflicts.

Once again, education proves the point.

In 2022 and 2023 – the latest years for which comprehensive data is available – there were around 6,000 reported attacks on education and incidents of military use of schools and universities, harming more than 10,000 students and educators globally.

This represents a 20% increase on the previous two years, and the fear is that the number and severity of attacks on education personnel, facilities, and schools has continued to grow.

But there is a different way.

In 2015, Argentina and Norway launched the Safe Schools Declaration with the objective of avoiding military use of schools and strengthening the protection of children and education in conflict. It has since been adopted by 121 states.

Meanwhile, just last year, the International Committee of the Red Cross launched a global initiative to galvanize political commitment to international humanitarian law (IHL). Some 89 states have signed up to support the initiative.

International cooperation, like these initiatives, to address global challenges, has never been more critical.

As the institutions that represent the people, parliaments are uniquely positioned to mobilize political will, champion inclusive governance and dialogue, challenge narratives, and be the voice of the most vulnerable.

Parliaments are also key actors in translating global humanitarian norms into domestic legislation and policy, scrutinizing government action over humanitarian commitments, and allocating resources to tackle pressing humanitarian challenges.

Right now, parliamentary diplomacy – MPs from different parliaments talking and working together – has the opportunity to play a pivotal role in reinforcing multilateral values such as inclusion, solidarity, cooperation, shared responsibility, and the rules-based international order.

This week’s meeting of national parliaments in Geneva won’t solve the multiple crises we face, but it might just begin the process of reminding us that the challenges we face are global in nature and need global solutions, and forging new people-to-people relationships to do precisely that.

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Xi Jinping’s initiative for the global climate governance

Chinese President Xi Jinping places great importance on environmental protection and sustainable development, distinguishing him from previous Chinese leaders who focused solely on economic and social development. It’s worth noting that Xi’s concern for the environment and climate change predates his rise to power in China. From 2000 to 2007, while serving as Party Secretary of Zhejiang Province, he published approximately 232 articles in the provincial newspaper, 22 of which addressed the importance of environmental conservation. This was exceptional at the time, as no other provincial party official routinely promoted environmental protection and sustainable development, and the topic was not a topic of political debate within the Communist Party.

 China is working to maximize its benefits from the global trend toward a green economy by enhancing its image as a global leader in combating climate change. This was evident in China’s establishment of the South-South Climate Cooperation Fund in 2015 and its pledge of approximately 20 billion Chinese yuan (3.1 billion US dollars) to enhance international climate cooperation through the “10-100-1000” initiative. This initiative aims to support developing countries in addressing climate change by developing 10 low-carbon industrial parks, 100 climate change mitigation and adaptation projects, and implementing 1,000 climate-related capacity-building activities.

 In addition, China has announced several initiatives to deepen climate change cooperation through infrastructure projects implemented through the Belt and Road Initiative. For example, in 2022, China announced increased engagement in green transformation efforts with Belt and Road Initiative countries, particularly in the areas of infrastructure and energy.

   A public opinion poll conducted by China’s People’s Daily in February 2021, which included more than 5 million people, showed that climate issues ranked fifth in terms of interest among Chinese social media users, an important indicator of the growing importance of climate change in the consciousness of the Chinese people.

   Air pollution and water scarcity are among China’s most pressing environmental issues. Now, three Chinese government departments are monitoring the climate change, which are the Ministry of Emergency Management, the State Forestry and Grassland Administration, and the China Meteorological Administration. In this context, China has relied extensively on cloud seeding technology to generate rain and reduce pollution levels in the capital, Beijing, ahead of the centenary celebration of the Communist Party on July 1, 2021. This confirms that the Chinese Communist Party has begun to sense the danger of environmental deterioration.

  Faced with some countries going against the trend and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, China, as a responsible major country, is determined to make arduous efforts in this regard. I think that China should continue to lead by example and further promote global climate governance by raising many Chinese initiatives from various perspectives, such as technology transfer, investment cooperation, multilateral trade, talent cultivation, infrastructure construction, etc. Here, a favorable and open international environment is an essential factor for China’s leadership for global climate governance.

  China affirms its support for global climate governance by committing to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 and setting ambitious targets for 2035, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, expanding clean energy use, and deepening international cooperation in green technology and industries. China supports multilateralism and calls for genuine global cooperation to address the challenges of climate change and achieve sustainable development, strengthening its leadership role in efforts to protect the planet.

–            China’s 2035 Climate Goals:

1)       Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions:

 Through reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels.

2) Expanding Non-Fossil Energy:

Through increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to more than 30%.

3)       Promoting Renewable Energy:

Through increasing installed wind and solar power capacity sixfold compared to 2020 levels, reaching 3,600 gigawatts.

4) Enhancing Forest Reserves:

Through increasing the total forest reserve to more than 24 billion cubic meters.

5) Shifting to New Energy Vehicles:

Through making new energy vehicles prevalent in new car sales.

6) Expanding the Carbon Market:

 Through expanding the National Carbon Emissions Trading System to include key high-emission sectors.

7) Building a Climate-Resilient Society:

 Fundamentally establishing a climate-resilient society.

·       The principles and efforts supporting China’s global climate governance efforts are:

1) China’s call for genuine global multilateralism on maintaining climate balance:

 Reaffirming commitment to the principles of multilateralism to enhance international cooperation in addressing climate change.

2)       China’s call for common but differentiated responsibilities on climate change for the developing global South and the international community:

Adhering to the principle of common responsibility while recognizing the different capabilities and circumstances of each country in addressing climate change.

3) China’s Leadership in International Climate Cooperation Efforts:

 Through China’s call for deepening cooperation in green technology and industries to enable all countries to achieve green development.

4) China’s Confrontation with US and Western Unilateral Climate Protectionism:

China warns that unilateral practices weaken the global economy and hinder the sustainable development agenda.

–            China’s Role in Global Climate Governance, through:

1) China’s Leadership in Global Climate Efforts:

Through its commitments, China aims to play a leading role in advancing global efforts toward a sustainable future.

2) China’s Partnership with the United Nations to Maintain Environmental and Climate Balance:

China aspires to play a greater role with the United Nations in addressing global challenges such as climate change and the governance of artificial intelligence.

3) China’s Contribution to a Just Global Climate Order:

Beijing contributes to building a more just and equitable global order and expanding the representation of countries of the Global South in multilateral climate mechanisms.

  Accordingly, we understand that climate change has become one of the most important issues of concern to China at the governmental, popular, and even international levels, and that climate change has become a significant factor in the Chinese political arena. Therefore, China is working to launch numerous international, regional, and local initiatives to contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, thereby improving the environmental conditions of its citizens and developing countries of the Global South in particular, and fulfilling its international commitments in this area.

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Bolivia’s 2025 Election: A Historic Turn to the Right

Bolivia’s presidential runoff on October 19th 2025, marked a major political shift for the country. For the first time since 2005, no candidate from Evo Morales’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party is on the voting ballot. In the August primary, centrist Rodrigo Paz won 32.2% of the vote versus only 3.2% for the official MAS ticket, while conservative former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga was second with about 27%. With MAS’s candidate trounced, Paz and Quiroga, both market-friendly, right-leaning politicians advanced to the runoff.

This officially put an end to MAS’s two-decade dominance and will establish Bolivia’s first non-MAS government in nearly twenty years. Analysts see this as a turning point, a moment when Bolivia moves away from the leftist model that defined the Morales era.

Legacy of Morales and the “MAS” Era

MAS, founded by President Evo Morales in the early 2000s, reshaped Bolivia’s politics and economy. Morales, who served from 2006 to 2019, was the country’s first indigenous head of state. Under his rule, poverty fell sharply, and millions of bolivians moved up into the middle class.

Critics say the party became overly centralized and failed to diversify the economy before gas revenues fell. Questions over term limits and alleged corruption defined Morales’s later years, culminating in his ouster in 2019 amid disputed elections and unrest. Even after Morales went into exile, MAS remained powerful, with Luis Arce, Morales’s former economy minister, winning the presidency in 2020.

By 2025, MAS no longer had the popularity it once took for granted. Voters cited inflation at a 40-year high and fuel shortages.

The Two Right-Wing Contenders

Rodrigo Paz, a senator and son of a former president, ran as a centrist populist in the Christian Democratic Party. He vowed to maintain social programs for the poor while promoting private-sector-led growth. Paz campaigned on a moderate platform: decentralize government spending, give tax incentives to small businesses, and phase out fuel subsidies gradually.

Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga is a veteran conservative. He served briefly as president in 2001-02 and campaigned on a bold austerity agenda, deep cuts to public spending and wanting to abolish or privatize loss-making state firms. Quiroga pitched himself as a reformer, arguing that the country is broke and pledging dramatic, radical change. In debate, he framed Bolivia’s last 20 years as lost and promised a return to business-friendly policies and property rights.

Shifting Alliances Abroad: From China and Russia to the U.S.

The expected rightward turn will reshape Bolivia’s foreign policy. Under Morales and Arce, Bolivia had aligned itself mostly with China and Russia. Chinese firms had multibillion-dollar lithium contracts, and Russia’s Rosatom planned a lithium plant in return for Bolivian uranium access. The MAS government often distanced Bolivia from Washington.

Now, both Paz and Quiroga pledge the opposite: a return to the U.S. orbit. They argue that better U.S. relations can bring investment, aid and energy deals. The U.S. State Department has already praised the election as a transformative opportunity, with Secretary Marco Rubio saying both candidates want stronger, better relations with the United States.

The U.S. may seize the chance to expand its footprint, as it did recently in Argentina, by offering aid or investment in exchange for political alignment. That would be a dramatic flip, with some observers framing the vote as a pro-market shift and U.S. embrace. Argentina and Bolivia’s swings may reveal the fate of other similar political regimes in Latin America, such as Chile’s and Colombia’s upcoming elections.

Domestic Impact and the Path Ahead

Domestically, the new government will face immediate challenges, like the economy having inflation above 20%, empty reserves, and protests over low growth. Paz and Quiroga both promise stimulus, insisting that fuel and social programs will not vanish overnight. Economists warn the fiscal hole is immense, meaning politically unpopular changes are unavoidable.

Any cutbacks will anger MAS’s former base. The powerful miners’ union COB has already warned it will oppose any threats to the social and economic gains of the 2010s. Indigenous groups and rural voters, whose support lifted MAS to power, may feel betrayed if subsidies and jobs are slashed. Paz and Quiroga will need to show voters they can fix the economy without undoing all of Morales’s legacy.

Both candidates have signaled that Bolivia will de-emphasize its former leftist alignment and turn east to west. For U.S. and European observers, that could perhaps mean more cooperation on trade, investment and regional security. But it also raises questions: will Bolivia’s rich lithium and natural-gas resources be opened more to Western firms and can the country still maintain the social gains of the MAS years under a pro-market agenda?

As Paz himself said, “ideologies don’t put food on the table”. Voters clearly decided they wanted change, but whether that leads to better conditions or new problems for Bolivia will depend on how this new government balances its reforms.

With information from Reuters.

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India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor: Promise, Peril, and the Politics of Connectivity

During a recent meeting of Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, on Friday, October 17, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Abdelatty reiterated that “the resolution of the Palestinian question” remains central to the progress of the IMEC connectivity project and strengthening the strategic ties between India and Egypt. His comments captured the essence of the challenge that confronts the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), that grand infrastructure schemes in this region cannot be separated from enduring political conflicts. Abdelatty’s emphasis indicated that IMEC, which was launched with so much enthusiasm at the 2023 G20 Summit hosted by New Delhi, will only move from rhetoric to reality if its architects reconcile geography with geopolitics.

The Strategic Vision: What IMEC proposes

IMEC was announced as a transformative connectivity framework which aims to link India, the Arabian Peninsula, and Europe through maritime, rail, energy, and digital networks. The project promised to reconfigure the trade routes and foster sustainable growth by involving India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Israel, and the EU with the support of the United States and major European economies. It also emerged as a counterpart initiative against China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the “IMEC vs BRI” debate is as much about the narrative competition as about logistics. Yet translating that narrative into a functioning framework is a complex process.

IMEC’s blueprint comprises two interconnected legs. An eastern maritime route between India and Gulf ports and a northern corridor of railways across Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel leading into Europe. Furthermore, it envisions plans for electricity grids, a hydrogen pipeline, and digital fibre networks. The idea is to reduce shipping time between India and Europe by nearly 40% and diversify global supply chains away from vulnerable checkpoints such as the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.

 

Barriers to the Vision

The road to the execution of this vision remains riddled with obstacles. IMEC’s future depends on bridging political divides and closing financial gaps. The physical links across the Arabian Peninsula are still incomplete, and key rail segments between Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel exist largely on paper. Different technical standards and varied customs regimes with no unified authority to synchronise investment or implementation make the project susceptible. Moreover, the funding model lacks transparency. Neither a dedicated corpus nor a multilateral mechanism has been finalised, which leaves the corridor vulnerable to delays and competing priorities.

Furthermore, there is uncertainty due to diplomatic and security dynamics. The Israel-Gaza war has frozen Saudi-Israeli normalisation efforts that initially spirited the IMEC. Egypt’s renewed engagement suggests that Cairo intends to shape any connectivity framework that intersects its sphere of influence. Given the role of Egypt in the control of the Suez Canal and its political weight in the Arab World, Cairo’s participation is crucial. Abdelatty’s linkage of IMEC’s viability to progress on the Palestinian question implies that diplomatic legitimacy will precede logistical cooperation. Unless the participants address the regional trust deficit, the corridor politics may remain trapped between ambition and ambiguity.

Divergent Priorities of Participants

Each participant in IMEC has divergent goals. For India, the project aligns with its “Act West” policy and its long-time desire to consolidate middle-power status through connectivity leadership. For the Gulf monarchies, IMEC represents a channel to diversify beyond hydrocarbons and attract investments in technology and management. Europe views it as a hedge against over-dependence on Chinese infrastructure. To reconcile these varied interests, it is required to focus on continuous negotiations and proper planning. Tensions among Gulf states and between regional powers such as Iran and Turkey could further complicate the situation. The overlapping interests may blur the line between cooperation and competition, which will undermine cohesion before the corridor gains momentum.

From India’s viewpoint, IMEC holds immense significance if managed strategically. It will not only strengthen the supply-chain resilience but will also enhance energy security and expand India’s diplomatic footprint in the Middle East. The corridor perfectly aligns with global efforts to provide transparent alternatives to Chinese financing, for instance, the U.S.-led Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment. However, this association might expose IMEC to great power rivalry, turning a development initiative into another strategic sport. This might dilute the economic rationale of the corridor.

Egypt and the Latest Turning Point

A new dimension has been added as Egypt re-emerges as a key stakeholder in the project. Cairo’s interests not only stem from geography but also from economic logic. The Suez Canal is the lifeline of the Egyptian economy, so any alternative corridor must complement rather than compete with it. Abdelatty’s emphasis on integrating political stability with economic planning reflects a broader regional lesson that peace and prosperity must progress together. Incorporating Egypt as a central player through port linkages or co-investment in logistics could enhance IMEC’s legitimacy and reliability. Contrary to this, if Egypt gets excluded, it may trigger diplomatic resistance or perceptions of marginalisation.

The most important question in the current context is whether IMEC can survive the cyclical turbulence of the world’s most unstable region. The region where energy markets are unstable and unresolved conflicts fuel the mistrust among participating states. Moreover, the delays in implementation might erode momentum. To demonstrate progress and sustain the confidence of investors, IMEC needs measurable milestones such as pilot projects, customs harmonisation or digital integration.  Even partial success, such as improved India-Gulf maritime connectivity or cooperation in renewable energy, could build credibility.

The Way Forward for IMEC

IMEC challenges the prevailing assumptions about how connectivity projects emerge in contested regions on a conceptual note. It suggests that strategic corridors can no longer depend solely on geopolitical alliances. They require inclusive governance, transparent financing, and conflict-sensitive design. Egypt’s diplomatic stance on the palestinian question and IMEC implies that development without justice is unsustainable. For India, the opportunity lies in using its credibility with multiple actors, such as Arab states, Israel, Europe and the U.S. to keep the corridor protected from zero-sum politics. This would present New Delhi not just as a participant but also as a facilitator.

In conclusion, IMEC is both a promise and a puzzle. It incorporates the aspiration for cooperative connectivity but remains hostage to the very divisions it aims to bridge. Abdelatty’s statement in New Delhi, which echoed across regional capitals, was less a warning than a reminder that infrastructure cannot transcend politics and it must be engaged with constructively. The corridor might evolve from a strategic deal into a genuine intercontinental partnership if India and its allies can translate this vision into sustained diplomacy and practical implementation. However, if it fails, IMEC will join the long list of visionary projects that turned out unsuccessful in the Middle East.

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From Putin to Pyongyang: Is Trump Planning a Kim Jong Un Reunion?

After the U.S.–Russia summit between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Budapest this October, diplomatic attention swiftly shifted eastward to a region where Trump once scripted some of his most dramatic foreign policy moments. In Washington, Seoul, and even Pyongyang, speculation is mounting about the possible revival of a U.S.–North Korea summit.

According to Reuters, some American officials have begun preliminary discussions on the feasibility of such a meeting, while South Korea’s Unification Minister Chung Dong-young noted that “there is no reason to rule out that possibility.” Though no official confirmation has been made, the very reemergence of this idea signals a subtle but notable shift in Trump’s diplomatic playbook.

Although there has been no official confirmation, the idea of ​​a US-North Korea summit being brought back to the table reflects a notable shift in the diplomatic direction of the Trump 2.0 administration. After making initial strides in Gaza and Ukraine, Washington appears to be shifting its pivot to Northeast Asia, a region that was a symbol of Trump’s diplomatic breakthrough in his first term in 2018.

Trump’s diplomatic instinct

Diplomacy under Trump has always been intensely personal. His style relies less on institutions or multilateral mechanisms and more on leader-to-leader engagement, what some in Washington describe as “summit diplomacy.”

For Trump, a renewed meeting with Kim Jong Un could serve two political purposes. First, it would remind the world that it is Trump, not Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin, who remains at the center of managing the world’s flashpoints. Second, it would demonstrate his unique ability to “talk to the untouchables,” those seen as beyond the reach of traditional diplomacy.

Trump doesn’t necessarily need an agreement to declare victory. What he needs is a story, one that projects confidence, leadership, and America’s capacity to command global attention. The Korean Peninsula remains the perfect stage for that story to unfold.

America’s strategic calculus

Beyond the spectacle, Washington’s calculus is deeply strategic. Trump’s contemplation of reopening dialogue with Kim is less about denuclearization per se and more about repositioning U.S. influence within two intersecting triangles of power: U.S.–China–Russia and U.S.–Japan–South Korea.

By reaching out directly to Kim, Trump could dilute the dual leverage that Moscow and Beijing currently exert over Pyongyang. Both powers have increasingly treated North Korea as a tactical card in their broader geopolitical standoff with the United States. A Trump–Kim channel could, at least temporarily, limit that dependency, allowing Washington to reassert itself as an independent broker on the Peninsula.

At the same time, reviving engagement with Pyongyang could help reboot the stalled trilateral coordination between Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul. For the U.S., this is not only about deterring the North but also about reaffirming its leadership at a time when East Asia’s security architecture is under strain from renewed great-power rivalry.

Pyongyang’s position: bargaining from strength

From Pyongyang’s perspective, the motivation to reopen a “high-level dialogue” is equally clear. Negotiating with Washington offers a path, however narrow, toward easing economic isolation or securing limited political concessions.

A statement from North Korea’s Foreign Ministry in October 2025 captured this tone of calibrated openness. “There is no reason to avoid dialogue with the United States, as long as it proceeds with mutual respect.” Behind this carefully crafted language lies a familiar tactic: engage only when leverage is high.

Unlike in 2019, Pyongyang is no longer fully isolated. Its deepening military cooperation with Russia, particularly since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, has yielded tangible benefits, from battlefield experience to access to advanced military technology. Meanwhile, China continues to view North Korea as an indispensable strategic buffer in its rivalry with the United States.

Most importantly, North Korea’s nuclear deterrence capability has grown substantially. The October 11 military parade unveiled the new Hwasong-20 intercontinental ballistic missile, symbolizing both technological progress and political confidence. The reactivation of the Yongbyon nuclear complex further signals that Pyongyang now approaches negotiations not from weakness, but from perceived strength.

As Pyongyang frames these moves as “necessary deterrence measures,” they also function as a form of crisis manufacturing, a deliberate escalation designed to increase bargaining value. For Trump, whose instincts favor transactional, hard-nosed diplomacy, this is a game he believes he can play and win.

Yet, the road to a new U.S.–North Korea summit remains fraught with risks. Washington harbors no illusion about the prospects of full denuclearization, while Pyongyang remains unwilling to trade its strategic assets for what it sees as reversible or symbolic commitments.

The question for Trump 2.0 is no longer whether to meet or not to meet Kim Jong Un, but rather, why meet, and what follows afterward?

If Trump manages to sustain dialogue with both Putin and Kim, he could reposition the United States as a balancer in an international order increasingly defined by overlapping rivalries rather than clear blocs. But if his efforts falter, Washington risks ceding ground to Moscow and Beijing, both of which are expanding their influence through direct engagement with Pyongyang.

A new kind of summit

If another Trump–Kim summit materializes in the coming months, it will not be a replay of Singapore 2018 or Hanoi 2019. This time, the performance will likely be more pragmatic, less idealistic, and perhaps even more calculated. Both leaders now understand the limits of what diplomacy can achieve and also the power of what a meeting alone can symbolize.

In a region where every gesture carries strategic weight, even the act of “showing up” becomes a message in itself. For Trump, that message would be simple but powerful: that the U.S. still holds the initiative, not through coercion, but through presence.

And for Kim Jong Un, it would reaffirm that Pyongyang, once again, cannot be ignored.

Whether or not the summit happens, Trump’s renewed focus on the Korean Peninsula reveals something deeper about his worldview. In an era where global power is contested on multiple fronts, symbolic diplomacy—the art of turning visibility into leverage—has become a strategic tool in its own right.

The question is not whether Trump and Kim can achieve a breakthrough. It is whether both can once again use each other to tell the stories they need: one of restored American dominance and one of North Korean resilience.

Either way, the stage is set. The spotlight, once more, is on the Peninsula.

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Friendless in Crisis: What the Israel-Iran Conflict Reveals About Non-Western Alliances

In a realist world, power is rarely exercised alone. It takes coordination, sustained support, and mutual loyalty to project strength. That is the foundation of any enduring alliance. Since the Cold War, Western powers have built a sophisticated web of strategic alliances, sometimes tested but still intact. Even amid nationalist disruptions under figures like Donald Trump or Viktor Orbán, the Western alliance remains functional and coherent. But what about the non-Western bloc, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and others?

The truth is that non-Western alliances remain weak, fragmented, and often symbolic. Lacking geographic proximity, institutional architecture, or political cohesion, these alliances fail to act in unison, especially in moments of crisis. Military cooperation, defense technology sharing, and strategic communication remain alarmingly underdeveloped.

The recent Israeli attack on Iran exposed this blatantly. Reportedly Isreal forces used the Jordanian and Iraqi airspace, struck Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing multiple top officials. While rumors circulated about an imminent war, Iran’s response was surprisingly feeble. It’s defense systems failed to intercept the attacks, and its military preparedness appeared outdated from the start. But recent retaliation followed a little bit of promise.

The United States denied direct involvement. Yet Washington, alongside the European allies, refrained from condemning the strike. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom stood silent, indirectly backing Israel through intelligence sharing, military cooperation, and diplomatic support. Their strategic coordination remains strong, despite tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.

What about Iran’s Non-Western allies?

Russia, arguably Iran’s closest partner, is deeply engaged in its own war in Ukraine. Yet strategic alliances are tested precisely in such moments. Iran and Russia have long shared regional interests in Syria and other part of the Middle East. Now, that cooperation seems one-sided. While Russia uses Iranian drones in Ukraine, Tehran receives little in return. No warning, no defense coordination, and certainly no technological assistance ahead of Israel’s strike.

Why hasn’t Russia helped accelerate Iran’s nuclear program as Western powers once did for Israel? Where was the intelligence sharing, the strategic dialogue? These absences raise serious questions about Russia’s role in the non-Western alliance framework: Is it simply a transactional partner or something more?

China is a different story. With an advanced defense industry and growing geopolitical clout, Beijing has demonstrated capability. The recent deployment of Chinese J-10C jets to Pakistan, for example, during tensions with India, signaled a serious technological and symbolic counterweight to Western influence. China even provided real-time intelligence to Pakistan. But where was this level of support for Iran? Through recent rumor said, there are couple of military assistance provided to Iran but still not like ally.

A newly inaugurated Iran-China railroad project suggests growing economic ties, but modern alliances require more than trade. Strategic defense coordination is fundamental. Despite Iran’s geopolitical relevance, Beijing remains largely absent in Iran’s security calculus.

Then there is Iran’s own regional network, its so-called “axis of resistance.” Historically, Iran projected strength through proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. But this too is unraveling. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh were both reportedly killed by Israeli operations, Haniyeh during an official visit in Tehran itself. These assassinations not only reflect Tehran’s inability to protect its partners but also signal a crisis of credibility. No meaningful retaliation followed. This absence of action weakens Iran’s reputation as a guarantor of its proxies’ survival.

The broader picture is troubling. Non-Western powers often operate like solo actors in a system that punishes isolation. The world is a dark forest; walk alone, and sooner or later, the wolves will find you. This is the lesson non-Western allies must internalize. Shared struggle requires shared commitment. Each country will always have its own domestic priorities, but alliances demand sacrifice, coordination, and strategic depth.

It seems like their trust-building process is yet to work. Or are they afraid to confront Western allies’ wrath over sanctions? China and Russia have been conducting business and various forms of economic cooperation with most of the Western blocs, despite sanctions threats and targeted regulations. These two nations need to step up and anchor the non-Western bloc. A multipolar world needs a table where bipolar allies can collaborate and pave the path for a democratic alliance for the world. Trump’s approach to Europe and other Western countries is not seen as a sign of alliance. So at this moment, non-Western countries can show unity. This not only gives the world new hope for cooperative living ideas but also threatens Trump’s leadership position on global order.

China has the defense capacity to empower allies but remains hesitant. Russia, once a superpower, is now locked in a war that undermines its influence and exposes its limits. In today’s geopolitical landscape, superpowers act more like coaches than players. Mediation, defense sharing, and regional stabilization efforts, rather than confrontation, are what build strategic resilience.

For the non-Western bloc, the Israel-Iran crisis must serve as a wake-up call. Without solidarity, without trust, and without strategy, they risk becoming a coalition of convenience. This also reflects unity in rhetoric but division and defeat in reality.

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Weaponized Distraction: How Foreign Powers Exploit America’s Culture Wars

If you TikTok on any particular night and you can watch America arguing with itself. Most teenagers scroll through protest videos, culture-war debates, and endless outrage while rival nations quietly observe something far more consequential – the erosion of the attention of the American youth.

Think of two children, one spends an entire day watching protest clips and debating identity issues online. The other spends that same time learning robotics or coding. A decade later, only one of them is shaping the technologies that define the future. Multiply this very difference by millions and the picture becomes clear. This is how foreign countries can gain a subtle but powerful advantage by encouraging distraction.

While American youth is drawn into ideological skirmishes, China is building artificial intelligence laboratories, investing heavily in space technology, and cultivating discipline among its students. Russia, though economically weaker, still benefits by showcasing American confusion to its own citizens. By pointing to social division and cultural chaos, it strengthens the illusion that its own model offers stability. The battlefield today is not military; it is psychological.

The New Frontline of Power

I believe that the most contested territory of the 21st century is not land or trade routes but attention. Data may have been the ‘New Oil’ but Attention and the ability to capture and control it is the ‘New Data’. If you control the minds, you control the country. Young Americans live in a constant world of images, arguments, and notifications that shape how they see their nation and their ideological beliefs. They are politically aware but emotionally exhausted.

Several Surveys by the Pew Research Centre show that nearly half of American teenagers believe social media has a mostly negative effect on their generation, and about 1 in 5 say it has harmed their mental health in one way or another. What began as a tool for connection, has become an arena for reactivity, chaos and following social media trends. News is consumed not to understand but to respond.

America’s openness which has been its defining strength, has become a point of vulnerability. During the 2016 election, Russian operatives deliberately amplified such issues online, pushing both liberal and conservative extremes to deepen mistrust and cause diversity. The aim was not persuasion but polarization. It was a targeted attack on the people of America.

TikTok on the other hand, which is China’s most successful global export is designed to capture attention through endless entertainment, while its domestic version, Douyin, restricts usage for minors and promotes educational and patriotic content. The Chinese youth are trained to create and compete, while American youth are taught, unconsciously, to scroll. Why is Douyin used in China and not TikTok? Why isn’t conventional social media banned in China? What does China know about these social debates that it wants to control the flow of media and western ideologies into their country? One should question what Is really happening

The Economics of Distraction

Attention is now a form of economic power. Nations that focus their youth on innovation and competence will dominate the coming century. Those that reward distraction will decline.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies reports that China graduates more than one million engineers each year, nearly four times the number produced in the United States. When a country’s young population spends more time debating cultural issues than mastering scientific ones, it weakens its long-term competitiveness.

Political consequences follow. Polarization has become both symptom and strategy. Congress spends increasing time performing ideological battles instead of solving practical problems. Rivals interpret this as evidence that democracy can be paralyzed by its own openness, and citizens begin to lose confidence in their institutions.

The Algorithmic Advantage

Algorithms have become invisible editors of public life. They decide what people see, what they feel, and eventually what they believe. A Wall Street Journal investigation found that TikTok’s recommendation system can guide users toward extreme or divisive content within minutes of signing up. Douyin, in contrast, enforces time limits for minors and promotes academic material.

The difference in design reveals a difference in philosophy. American platforms optimize for engagement. Chinese platforms optimize priamrily for control. Both shape human behaviour, but only one leaves its users fragmented and fatigued.

Every moment of outrage online generates data, engagement, and profit. The more polarized the conversation, the stronger the business model. That is the genius of this weapon, it destabilizes societies while appearing voluntary. It is a quiet killer of growth, it is the quiet killer of a bright future. Why? Because it changes the nature of the populus to focus on ideological differences, to argue and debate on that rather than focusing on innovation, growth and developing. The American Citizen has become vulnerable to these power plays.

The Psychological Toll

This constant exposure to ideological battles leaves deep psychological marks. A few studies link sustained online conflict to higher anxiety, moral fatigue, and declining trust in authority. People become more skeptical yet also more suggestible, believing less but reacting more quickly.

The youth, despite being more digitally focused, remain more adaptable in belief than older generations. The real danger here, is not what they believe but that they begin to doubt whether anyone can be trusted to tell the truth. When the trust has evaporated, societies become easier to manipulate and it gets much harder for the country to unite and focus on growth and development.

Building Cognitive Resilience

Safeguarding democracy today requires much more than merely armies and technology, rather it requires citizens who can think clearly in an environment designed to distract them. The solution lies in resilience, not censorship or media control. Lets discuss some points that can be adopted to fight this battle

Teach Media Literacy: Schools should help students understand how algorithms shape their perceptions and emotions. Research shows that even brief digital literacy training reduces belief in false information.

Make algorithms transparent: Tech platforms should disclose what content they prioritize and why. Independent audits can reveal manipulation before it spreads.

Rebuild Offline Living: Communities that meet face-to-face build empathy that online arguments cannot. Dialogue, Community building and local participation restore the sense of shared purpose that social media erodes.

Expose Interference very Quickly: Governments should publicly reveal foreign manipulation as soon as it is detected. Transparency disarms propaganda faster than denial.

The Human Cost and the National Risk

Beneath this jargon is a human story. It is the that teenager that watches TikTok before bed and wakes up anxious without knowing the reason for that very anxiety. It is the citizen who cannot trust any sources of news. It is the slow disintegration of focus and faith in the conventional media and the American government.

Many foreign powers have learned that it is cheaper to just divide America than try to defeat it using any Economic or Military power because they sure are too strong on that front controlling the one of the most globally traded currency and one of the strongest Military powers in the world. Their weapon is distraction, which is engineered with precision and amplified through emotion.

The remedy is not to close society but to strengthen it. Attention in itself needs to be treated as a civic skill, something to be trained and protected. The ability to pause, reflect and filter out unimportant and hate-causing content is America’s last line of defence.

The next great contest between open and closed societies will not be fought on a battlefield but in the minds of the populus deciding whether to react or to think. If America’s strength once came from its freedom to speak, its survival now depends on its willingness to listen and act be aware of what is really happening.

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Failure of Russia-Arab League Summit: Cultural Divergences and Orientations on Brokering Peace Partnerships

Russia’s foreign policy framework places emphasis on adopting a plurality of approaches, including serious dialogues through conventional diplomacy, to all kinds of disputes and has taken concrete steps to coordinate the resolution of those in the Arab world. After lengthy preparations toward hosting the “Russia-Arab world” summit, primarily aimed at discussing regional security and energy relations and showcasing Moscow’s enduring influence in the Middle East, the Kremlin abruptly put off the scheduled gathering, citing contradictory positions and extremely low interest among Arab leaders, including those in North Africa.

The Russia-Arab Summit was supposed to open and be decisive for advancing the agreements on the Gaza Strip, agreements that have been energetically promoted by Egypt and Qatar, considered friends of Russia. It was also meant to address aspects of the Palestinian issue, to stop the bloodshed as soon as possible, and to offer possible pathways for the grave humanitarian issues faced by the people.

Notably, the overwhelming majority in the Arab world showed little interest in Russia being the organizer. Later, considering the apathy towards participation, “President Vladimir Putin reached an understanding with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States to postpone the summit,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Arab media reporters on October 13, during his media briefing.

“The final documents are practically ready, so we will still have the opportunity to get together, back for the summit,” Lavrov reassured. The relations with Arab countries are steadily progressing. The League of Arab States has demonstrated its value and is consolidating its role as a key pillar of the emerging multipolar world, authoritatively and actively participating in global affairs—in economics, finance, and increasingly contributing to the resolution of regional and, more broadly, political issues.

There is a noticeable sustained growth in trade turnover with the League’s member states, which has now exceeded $34 billion. Whilst this figure is modest compared to the trade volumes the United States and the People’s Republic of China maintain with the Arab world, it is several times greater than the trade turnover recorded two decades ago. That lapses, however—the growth dynamics are still positive. Arab partners are also showing keen interest in agricultural cooperation, including supplies of Russian food products and fertilizer.

Furthermore, in the sphere of cultural cooperation, Russia has traditionally maintained strong educational ties with many Arab states, a practice dating back to the Soviet era. Tourism is growing bilaterally. The fundamental trend remains the development of constructive relations grounded in mutual respect, the accommodation of each other’s interests, and the consolidation of a stable balance between them.

According to various reports monitored by Modern Diplomacy, the Kremlin was forced to shelve the gathering after only a handful of leaders, including Syria’s president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the head of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, confirmed their attendance. For nearly a decade, the Middle East served as the stage for Putin’s long-sought return to global prominence. But analysts say the Arab majority expressed little interest in participating in deliberations, geopolitics, and conflict settlement with Moscow.

Nevertheless, an aide to the president of Russia, Yury Ushakov, in mid-October explicitly explained that “naturally, the Russian side outlined its principled position in favor of a comprehensive Middle East settlement on a generally recognized international legal basis that would ensure lasting peace for all the peoples in that region.”

In particular, Ushakov noted that Vladimir Putin provided a detailed assessment of the current situation, stressing Russia’s interest in achieving a peaceful resolution through political and diplomatic methods in the region and other similar conflicts around the world. In this context, Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his successful efforts to normalize the situation in the Gaza Strip. The US president’s peace work has been duly appreciated in the Middle East, in the United States itself, and in most countries around the world.

In several frank exchanges of views, experts noted the essential political developments in the Middle East and stressed the growing significance of the necessity for establishing peace. “But Russia’s diplomatic role in the Middle East has declined as a result of the Ukraine war,” said Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign policy. “When it comes to all the big developments, the major players in the region don’t look towards Moscow anymore.”

But, the fact remains for geopolitical reasons, the primary objectives and challenges, that the situation has been very difficult and the future trends are uncertain in the region—the Middle East and North Africa. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, meeting with his Moroccan counterpart Nasser Bourita, also acknowledged Moscow’s readiness to work together with other interested countries to help resolve the issues facing the Middle East and North Africa.

“This certainly envisages continued cooperation as part of Russia’s interaction with the Arab League,” according to Lavrov. With Israel and Palestine, Russia hoped the agreements on Gaza reached through the mediation of Egypt, Qatar, the United States, and Turkey will be strictly and fully adhered to in every context and in the logically established international legal framework. 

On September 29, the White House released US President Donald Trump’s comprehensive plan to resolve the situation in the Gaza Strip. The 20-point document includes, among other measures, the establishment of temporary external administration in the Palestinian enclave and the deployment of international stabilization forces there. On October 9, Trump announced that Israeli and Hamas representatives had agreed on the first step of the peace plan after negotiations. According to Trump, the agreement included the release of all hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops to an agreed-upon line in Gaza.

Despite years of cultivating ties with the Arab countries, Putin called off, on 10th October, the Russia-Arab world summit, a clear sign of Russia’s dwindling influence in the Middle East. Notwithstanding that, Russia has been jostling to sustain its traditional relations across Central Asia and the Caucasus, and also with the former Soviet republics—including Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Substantive steps have been taken on Gaza, for instance, during the summit held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, and hopefully, the agreements on Gaza, reached with the mediation of Egypt, Qatar, the United States, and Türkiye, will be strictly and fully implemented. Key priorities include ensuring the unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid to all those in need, creating the necessary conditions for the return of displaced persons, and addressing the comprehensive destruction of the enclave’s civilian infrastructure. 

The UN Security Council and General Assembly resolutions can additionally bring a long-awaited and lasting peace to all the peoples of the Middle East—an outcome in which we are deeply invested, achieving long-term stabilization in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone and the wider Middle East.

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The Shooting of Charlie Kirk: When Tragedy Becomes a Political Narrative Commodity

The shooting of Charlie Kirk, a right-wing activist and founder of Turning Point USA, has attracted global attention. It didn’t take long for the media to rush to write narratives related to the shooting of Charlie Kirk. This tragedy is not only a sad news, it has transformed into a political stage that reveals the reality of how the world of news works. This, of course, raises a big question: how can a violent tragedy turn into a political conversation?

The Political Dimension of the Charlie Kirk Shooting

In a society often polarized by politics, an event is often responded to not by its substance but by who was involved in it. In this tragedy, the most widely reported information was related to Charlie Kirk’s political identity, his affiliation with Donald Trump and his close ties to conservative groups.

Violence against political figures in the United States is nothing new. However, Kirk’s case has become a turning point, demonstrating how vulnerable the public can be when political identities take precedence over human values. In its official statement on S. Res. 391, Congress honored Kirk’s commitment to the constitutional principles of civil discussion and debate among all Americans, regardless of political affiliation.

Facts about the Charlie Kirk shooting tragedy

On September 10, 2025, Charlie Kirk was shot and killed on the campus of Utah Valley University. At the time of the incident, Kirk was answering questions about transgender shooters and mass shooters at a public debate themed “Prove Me Wrong” and hosted by Turning Point USA. Panic ensued, and security officers immediately carried him out on a stretcher, but unfortunately, Kirk’s life could not be saved because the bullet hit his neck.

The FBI and Utah State Police are working together to gather evidence, release video of the alleged shooter, and even offer a $100,000 reward for information leading to the identity of the Kirk shooter. Campus CCTV footage shows a man jumping from the Losee Center building. Prior to the arrest of Tyler Robinson (the shooter), two other men were detained on the day of the shooting, but were soon released after their innocence was proven.

An affidavit of probable cause from the Utah prosecutor’s office outlines the charges and elements of the charges, one of which is the enhancement of victim-targeting related to the victim’s political views. Tyler Robinson was charged with Aggravated Murder under Section 76-5-202 (F1 Felony), Felony Discharge of Firearms under Section 76-11-210(2)(3C) and Obstruction of Justice-Capital/First Degree Felony Conduct under Section 76-8-306(2)+(3A).

The Shift from Tragedy to Narrative in Public Space

The threat of domestic violence and terrorism in the United States is driven by social, political, and global factors. A divided political environment and the proliferation of digital disinformation have fueled the radicalization of individuals, often targeting political activists, government officials, and ethnic and religious minorities.

In this context, Kirk’s shooting demonstrates how a real tragedy has become a platform for shaping public opinion. Framing Kirk’s position and the perpetrator’s position creates a polarization, with conservatives viewing the shooting as a form of silencing of the values ​​of free speech in the United States. While others view this event as a form of ideological hostility that has led to political violence, they believe it reflects extreme rhetoric. What ultimately creates two conflicting versions of the truth, so that society no longer sympathizes with the event but shifts to its ideological position.

Public Polarization and the Construction of Global Media Reality

Several media narratives also highlighted the affiliation of Tyler Robinson, a 22-year-old college student who was confirmed by the FBI as the perpetrator of Kirk’s shooting. However, public attention was no longer focused on the perpetrator’s motives, but rather on his ideological positions, social background, and political views. This further widened the gap in public polarization. Recurring narratives in the media reinforced certain images, one of which placed Tyler as affiliated with a political party. Most media outlets did not write narratives that showed the motives of the crime and the human aspects that could build public empathy. As a result, many people speculated that this was a political incident, not an ordinary shooting tragedy.

In an increasingly connected world, the line between local events and global issues is becoming increasingly blurred. The news of the Charlie Kirk tragedy has crossed borders and shaped broader debates about freedom of speech and democracy in the United States. This event has then become no longer seen as a domestic US issue but has evolved into a global reflection of narratives that are more often traded than conveying reality.

Kirk’s death should elicit empathy regardless of political affiliation or ideological views. Politics has taken over the media’s sense of humanity. Media plays a crucial role in distributing information, so it should be free from political elements that shape public opinion. When differing views are used as a source of conflict, the public sphere loses its function as a forum for discussion. Ultimately, the public can only be urged to think critically so that a tragedy is no longer used as a political commodity.

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On paper Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan looks like decent terms to end horrors

THE self-proclaimed President of Peace is at it again, unveiling his 20-point peace plan for the Gaza war.

In typically understated fashion, Donald Trump declared his meeting with Israel’s Netanyahu a “historic day for humanity”.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving thumbs-up.

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U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu give a thumbs-up at the White House after unveiling a 20-point peace plan for the Gaza warCredit: Reuters
The high-rise Mekka Tower in Gaza City burning after being struck by Israeli missiles.

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Gaza City Tower up in flamesCredit: Getty
Smoke billows from the bombed Mekka Tower, surrounded by damaged buildings.

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The building, which sheltered hundreds of Palestinians, collapses after an evacuation warningCredit: Getty

And to be fair, convincing the hardman to sign up to a deal that could allow Hamas terrorists to walk free from their crimes was a big ask and an important moment.

Netanyahu is on board, with an oversight committee for Gaza lead by Mr Trump and an astonishing late career comeback from Tony Blair.

No Gazan will be forced out of their home, which was a major ask from European nations, while the cost of rebuilding the pummelled strip will be shared around the region.

On paper this looks like decent terms to end horrors.

But as we saw with Ukraine and Putin, these deals can come to nothing if one side doesn’t agree.

So now the world waits on Hamas to accept the terms.

They’ve said no before and collapsed talks and continued their butchery countless times.

But the given the Hamas leadership has been taken out three times now, and up to 20,000 dead fighters have been killed – the organisation is on its knees.

How long can they realistically keep fighting?

Trump and Netanyahu meet at White House in bid to FINALLY end war in Gaza with peace deal ‘close’

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A ‘New Sudan’: Is Hemedti’s ‘vision’ closer to reality than Burhan’s?

As the world’s pontificators and peacemakers gather over the coming months in their various forums—be those the UN General Assembly or the backrooms of Europe and the United States—to discuss the world’s worst conflict-driven humanitarian crisis, Sudan, they would do well to think hard about what they are really hoping to achieve. A quick peace, or an enduring settlement? 

To do that, they will need to peel away the almost cartoon-like representations that have come to dominate media imagery and international perceptions of what this conflict is about, and seek a better understanding of the historical tensions within the Sudanese state, and of the competing visions for how it should be governed—if it is not to be further divided.

A recent analysis by Daniel J Deng, published by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, would be a useful place to start. Deng, an East Africa and South Sudan peace-building specialist, argues that the war is not merely a quest for military dominance but is, significantly, a “war of visions” over the future architecture of the Sudanese state.

Deng sees the Rapid Support forces, led by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”), as a product of both the collapse of centralized governance and, potentially, as a catalyst for more inclusive, decentralized national reconstruction—the ‘New Sudan’. The Sudanese Armed Forces under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, is cast as the contemporary custodian of Sudan’s long-standing centralist, military-Islamic order.

That vision of a ’New Sudan’ was the life’s work of John Garang, rebel leader and, briefly before his death in a helicopter crash in 2005, first vice president of Sudan and president of the South Sudan Autonomous Region. Garang articulated a Sudan centred on pluralism, federalism, and inclusive governance, in which he “imagined a pluralistic, democratic Sudan anchored in inclusive governance, ethnic equality, and political secularism,” transcending both northern and southern regional chauvinism.

This vision was central to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between North and South in 2005, but with Garang’s death, the Islamist-dominated Bashir regime in Khartoum let it drift, leading to South Sudan’s secession in 2011. And, it can be argued, Hemedti, whether by conviction or design, is the inheritor of that vision. Certainly in his rhetoric, he appears to have adopted its central tenets and made them central to the vision that lies behind his political coalition, Tasis, and the ‘government of peace and unity’ it has set up in Nyala.

After Omar al-Bashir fell in 2019, the RSF sought to transform its image from a militia rooted in state repression to “a political actor speaking on behalf of Sudan’s neglected peripheries.” Hemedti’s own rhetoric is purposefully populist and ‘Africanist,’ explicitly distancing the RSF from the legacy of Khartoum’s “Islamist deep state”. He has called for “an end to discrimination, equal citizenship, and the rights of all Sudanese, regardless of region or ethnicity.” And in April 2023, as tensions between himself and General Burhan were about to boil over into war, he said: “We want a Sudan that belongs to all Sudanese, not just a select group… a Sudan where every citizen, from Darfur to Kassala, is treated with dignity and equality.”

According to Deng, Hemedti frames himself as “a man of the people, not one of the elites who live in glass towers.” He refers to his roots in Darfur and deep-rural Sudan, and his life as a camel driver—a far cry from Sudan’s tradition of urban, Nile-side Islamist elite dominance. Moreover, the alliances he has forged with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N, particularly the al-Hilu faction) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), suggest a leader who understands that Sudan’s future governance must of necessity be decentralised to reflect the aspirations of its diverse ethnicities. 

In contrast, Burhan and the SAF represent the “traditional centralist, military-Islamist dominated model of government”. After the 2021 coup which ousted civilian prime ministerAbdalla Hamdok, Burhan “sought to reintroduce Islamist figures into state structures, consolidating SAF’s traditional base and reactivating elements of the National Congress Party’s old guard.” In Deng’s view, this effort simply “reinforces a statist governance model misaligned with Sudan’s emerging decentralized realities” and represents a direct continuation of the old order, “domination by centre or clique”, instead of plural citizenship and regional equity.

And that’s pretty much where the Juba Peace Agreement of 2020 fell down: implementation was top-down and elite-centric: “The JPA institutionalized parallel sovereignties… Rather than demobilizing insurgents into a unified national force, the JPA institutionalized parallel sovereignties.” These were the same design flaws that led to the collapse, in South Sudan, of its own internal peace process in 2016. Both failures—that of South Sudan, and of Juba in Sudan and the subsequent coup, underline the perils of centralist bargains unmoored from grassroots legitimacy, writes Deng. “By replacing institutional pluralism with top-down military rule, the post-2019 transition drifted into warlord competition masked as governance.”

At no point does Deng attempt to downplay the RSF’s part in the conflict, but he makes clear that Sudan’s future depends on ‘moving beyond binary paradigms of unity versus secession’and reconstructing a governance model that is neither rigidly centralist nor hopelessly fragmented, but layered, decentralized, and rooted in local legitimacy—an outcome that, on the face of it, is more closely aligned with Hemedti’s public posture than Burhan’s. 

And here’s where the pontificators and peacemakers need to pay attention. There is no Nobel Prize-gaming quick fix. Peace in Sudan, and the viability of a future state, will depend on the old Islamist-centralist-elitist-militarist model giving way—through committed, sustained peace and institution building—to a new model of inclusion and distributed power, anchored in accountable, civilian-led, and grassroots-rooted governance. It’s either that or suffering Sudan goes back to Square One. 

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Iran-Israel Conflict: Expanding Security Dilemma in Middle East

The Middle East has been one of the most sensitive regions, where one event of insecurity and chaos shakes the entire Middle Eastern dynamics and existing global order. The recent atrocious genocide of Palestinians since October 7, 2023, by Israelis has proved to be a major spark for escalated crises in the region. The recent Iran–Israel conflict ignited a fire from the underlying spark. Strategic attacks between both adversaries took place, which unveiled the volatile and porous security shield of the region concealing deepened internal weaknesses and discords. Israel attacked Iran by relying on its policy of “pre-emptive strike,” a sheer and illegal violation of international law. Iran retaliated while unable to hide the weaknesses and loopholes in its air force and defense system.

The Arab World’s normalization of relations with Israel, the anti-Western ideological perspective of Iran, the sponsorship of terrorism and proxy wars, the expanded nuclear arsenals of both competitors, and the Palestinian genocide by Israel have caused recent escalatory tensions between Iran and Israel. The war between both nuclear powers has escalated regional tensions and generated severe impacts: a vacuum for global powers to exercise influence in the Middle East, strict hatred against the USA and the West by Iran, regional instability and imbalance of power, an arms race, and alliance formation in the region.

The relationship between Iran and Israel can be divided into four phases, spotlighting a roller coaster of instability. The first phase starts from 1947 till 1953, in which bitter relations followed; Iran stood against the British and United Nations (UN) decision of inclusion of Israelis into Palestine (Iran was an anti-Israel state out of 13 states).Then comes the second phase, from 1953 till 1979, in which cordial ties were enjoyed during Iranian President Reza Shah Pahlavi’s regime (he was pro-Western). During the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the pro-Western regime of Reza Shah Pahlavi was ousted by Iran’s first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and post-Revolution Iran maintained bitter relations with Israel during its third phase till 1991.

However, further adversarial relations peaked after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 till contemporary times. The series of attacks between both states in the contemporary history of the world marked a possibility of a bigger conventional warfare that can take place between both states via the “Domino Effect.” The unprecedented support for surgical strikes, proxy wars, and attacks on ships, planes, military bases, and nuclear scientists was a common practice. Recent larger-scale tensions expanded when Israelis attacked on April 1, followed by Iranian retaliation on April 13, 2024, then full-scale attacks at the onset of June 2025, while utilizing their nuclear arsenals at a huge pace. Israel’s important port was attacked by Iran, along with the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who justified the attack on Gaza concealed under the right of self-defense. 

The ground for attack was prepared for a few reasons. Diverse factors escalated war at the conflict ladder, raising serious peace and security concerns and generating severe impacts. One of the major causes of the tensions is the religious factor. Iran being a Shi’ite majority state while Israel’s Zionism’s superiority claimed the conflict’s religious perspective. Iran stood with Palestinians, being a Muslim brother, and warned Israel of an unprecedented war if Israel did not back out, and it proved to be true. The recent Israeli attacks on Palestinians divided the Middle Eastern sections that claim to be united under the umbrella of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

This war took the shape of the Arab World vs. the Non-Arab World. The Arab World normalization of relations with Israel played a major role in heightening the conflict ladder. Israel wants to become a regional hegemon by balancing ties with the Arab States and maintaining superiority on all fronts. The religious factor has caused the formation of blocs and alliances by some states andneutrality by others. The Arab World and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) met failure in proposing a genuine solution for wars in the region. Iran-Israel tensions escalated from small tactics of attacks from both sides. The nuclear warfare conceals religious superiority and intolerance towards other segments of the region.

Ideological differences between parties paved the way for a warfare scenario. Israel being the right hand of the USA in the Middle East is not acceptable to Iran (a staunch anti-Western state) in the region.Post-revolutionary Iran (post-1979) is against western policies and their implementations in the Middle East by any Muslim state. Even Pakistan’s Chief Marshall General Asif Muneer’s visit to the USA on June 14, on the 250th anniversary of the USA military, during regional tensions made Iran uncomfortable. The cover page of the Iranian newspaper “The Tehran Times” raised questions about why Pakistan went to the USA amid tensions in the Muslim world. Iran considers the backing power of Israel, the USA, a major reason for regional instability.

Iran challenges the USA’s interference in the region by confronting Israel. The USA provided military and economic aid to Israel in wars in the Middle East. In the case of Palestine, the Conflictual Theory of Karl Marx implies in this situation that the actions of one state generate the consequences, and the other (weaker) states bear the brunt of those consequences. Iran was against Saudi-led westernization structured on USA models. The USA and Israel mutually adopted a policy to neutralize Iran for being a regional hegemon. A step towards it was initiated by Israel.

Iran has an over-reliance on three elements.

·       Drones (struck down by the USA, UK, Israel, and Jordan). Jordan is justifying it by saying that I’ll not allow violation of my airspace.

· Missiles (Ballistic and Hypersonic). Around 80 ballistic missiles were used, not stopped by the USA and others, and reached Israel within 12 minutes. Hypersonic missiles comprise more speed.

·       Proxies in region.

The sponsorship of terrorism and proxies by both Iran and Israel in the Middle East is also one of the major reasons for advanced nuclear tensions between both parties, as they cost the peace of the region in the long run. One reason Netanyahu is quoting again and again is that Iran is an existential nuclear threat for Israel, and he is emphasizing diminishing its proxies. Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Mehdi Malaysia in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Assad’s regime in Syria are all backed by Iran. These groups are alleged to have carried out terrorist activities in the Middle East. Israel claims to stand against them, but the reality check is different.

Israeli atrocities abstained Hamas from bearing tortures and eventually stood on October 7, 2023, by attacking Southern Israel on Yom Kippur Day. The terrorist acts and proxy wars destabilized the region in worst-case scenarios. The militant groups fought for their regional autonomy and basic independence in the states, which were undermined by stakeholders. The militant groups are majorly supported by Iran in their rights for freedom and regional autonomy rather than external influences and perpetual dependency on the global North and West. Houthis in Yemen are at a distance from Iran, and for attacks, Iran has to go through the Red Sea, as their access is strenuous. They stood in solidarity with Palestinians by blocking oil and trade ships of the USA, the UK, and Israel. These states then retaliated and caused much devastation to them by breaking the back of Iran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) submitted a report in May 2025 that Iran has grossly violated enrichment capacities and expanded its nuclear arsenals. The Israeli nuclear arsenal, backed by the USA and Western alliances, raised the regional imbalance of power and security dilemma but was accepted by the international community.Contrarily, the Iranian Nuclear Program, developed on its own, seems a threat in the region. The nuclear programs, uranium enrichment, expansion of weaponry, development of missiles (cruise and ballistic), and latest conventional warfare techniques have raised serious concerns undermining regional peace. The economic and nuclear sanctions on Iran crippled its societal structure, yet its nuclear standoff is unmatchable. The expansion of nuclear arsenals and weaponry has led to an arms race, with the latest technological advancements having raised serious concerns. Iran has weapons that cannot be detected by the missile defense systems of Israel.

Palestinian genocide by Israel is one of the major reasons behind Iran-Israel tensions. Massive ethnic cleansing of innocent Palestinians has raised serious human rights concerns. Iran has condemned the Arab World for staying silent and not assisting Palestinian liberation via united efforts. They have claimed to retaliate with full force if Israel does not back off from Palestinian genocide. Massive brutal assassinations of Palestinians have taken place. More than 50,000 children have been killed, with millions of deaths of civilians and injuries. In the case of Iran, more than 16 renowned nuclear scientists, with few other state officials, have been killed by Israeli attacks in the past ten days. If this crisis prevails, it will be difficult to mitigate larger regional warfare. Iran sided with Palestine rather than the tame Arab world. They demand immediate genuine solutions;Global Civil Society is already predicting the way towards World War III. Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, sending a clear message that it will not back down if Israel does not stop regional ethnic cleansing in the name of self-defense.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in 2015, from which the USA administration quit under President Trump’s administration in 2017. Trump expanded the process of negotiations on multiple fronts (nuclear enrichment, proxy wars) with Iran after becoming president again in 2024. Oman played a major role in it. The sixth round of talks was ongoing when strikes between both parties took place. Israel was against any kind of negotiations with Iran. Israel has been convincing the Global North and West to attack Iran on the basis of several reasons (speeches), as its fear of unprecedented threats from Iran isn’t hidden. After its October 2023 attacks on Gaza, upon questioning by the journalist about what the common threat of Israel is, in an interview with CNN, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Iran, Iran, Iran.” Pivotal stance on attacking Hamas was based on ceasing Iranian support and expansion in the region via Hamas. JCPOA negotiations failed in genuine terms and halted, as they were not acceptable to Israel, and do not seem possible in the future.

Netanyahu is facing opposition on multiple fronts, internally due to a vote of no-confidence against himself in Knesset. In order to foil that move, he successfully created a situation with Iran. Due to genocide and war crimes in Gaza, European allies step back in large numbers. The USA and European populace went to protests for Muslim victims for the first time in contemporary history. A wicked hard image of Netanyahu was projected globally; these steps seemed to make it better to erode it by diverting attention towards Iran.

Israel implemented an official policy of “preemptive strikes” against all proxies. This concept matured in the Bush era, mainly in 2003-04. Practically, it was utilized by both adversaries in strikes against each other, yet Israel got its benefits in the recent escalation. The attacks were unprecedented. No official statement was given by Israel, and certain media reports say that missile strikes were carried out and F-35 jet fighters were used. Special forces of Israel have conducted operations in Iran, including attacks in Tehran, at nuclear facilities, and at military bases, targeting journals, scientists, the army chief, military commanders, and around 100 civilians, claiming several precious and innocent lives.

Nuclear facilities of states are mostly underground, and Iran’s are based in Isfahan, Natanz, Fordow, and Arak. The depth of underground facilities is generally 60-80 meters deep underground. Simple missiles are not enough to destroy these, but Bunker Buster bombs are required, which are owned by the USA but lacked by Israel. According to The Security Brief Show (BBC News), nuclear sites in Isfahan were attacked by sea-based USA warships called TAM, or Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, that travels subsonically and can go very deep and is really hard to be detected by radar. The dismantling of the nuclear installations is still doubtful.

However, apart from bases, Iran claimed to have breached Israel’s sophisticated missile defense systems, which are among the most advanced in the world, by hitting a military intelligence center and an operations planning center for the Mossad spy agency. Iranian missiles managed to pierce through the Israeli Air Defense System by exhausting interceptor missiles and cruise and hypersonic missiles, according to an Al-Jazeera report.

Despite all these, the internal weaknesses of the Iranian intelligence system and defense capabilities to strike down attacks by Israel were all unveiled and made Israel more confident. The striking back capabilities of Iran encompassed the Air Force, which was very weak due to protracted sanctions via the international community. It has outdated jets, like the MiG-29. F-14 jet fighters are USA-based. The Israeli intelligence agency Mossad has deep penetration in Iran’s intelligence and military system. The attacks were carried out on the residences of the army chief, the Pasdaran-e-Islam chief, scientists, journals, and many others. The operation by commandos proved to be another bigger penetration of Israel (comprising intelligence and military). Reports by the BBC are claiming that Iran will go to Beijing for advanced fighter jets.

This war has major impacts on China, due to its growing imports and reliance on Middle Eastern hydrocarbons, especially being a major importer of Iran’s hydrocarbons. Absence of safety, hiked prices of energy resources, and escalated insecurity will devastate China in the economic sector via deteriorating trade and investments carried out by China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and BRICS+. Unlikely, USA entanglement in regional wars has diverted her attention from the Taiwan Strait (emerging Silicon and technological warfare) and the South China Sea, a blessing in disguise for China to reclaim irredentism. The USA has more than 40,000 troops in the Persian Gulf.

The more the attention of the USA is on the Middle East, the less the attention is on China and Russia.

Trump projected himself (self-proclaimed) as a peacemaker—to avoid a confrontation policy with Iran. Iran was not in favor of war either (with the USA and Israel directly) and carried out a policy of utilizing the nuclear enrichment as a bargaining chip with the USA for the removal of sanctions, knowing its defense capacities and loopholes. Trump is projecting its peace-making image via regime change in Syria with more democratic and peaceful political agendas concealing regional influence, genocide in Gaza despite ceasefire truces, launching air and naval strikes on Houthis in Yemen in “Operation Rough Rider” in the name of promoting peace, and giving minute relief to so-called militant groups in the region. According to a recent report on the Red Sea crisis, Israel is urging Trump to resume strikes on Houthis in Yemen.

In the case of Pakistan, the state’s second strike capability is strong, as it remained victorious in recent military strikes with India in post-Pahalgam aggression. India’s ideological isolationist nationalism and political pressure on Prime Minister Modi are shaping the current aggressive behavior of the world’s largest democracy. Its involvement in baking the proxies, extremists, and terrorist activities in neighborhoods and within Pakistan are expected to surge in Afghanistan, ex-FATA,and the Balochistan regions.

A ceasefire brokered by the USA on June 24, 2025, curbed both parties from engaging in further military and nuclear strikes, underlying diplomatic objectives. Iran denounces the claim of the USA. It has not ended fully; episodes still exist on political and diplomatic grounds, as Israel is not accepting negotiations with Iran at any cost. The Israeli Defense Minister said that we will not attack Iran, yet citizens should be prepared for counterattacks. They have to ensure their protection via the Underground Safety System of Israel. In an interview addressing the conflict, the Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf highlighted that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, played a pivotal role in orchestrating decisive strikes of Iran, which urged the USA and Israel to seek a ceasefire after the 12-day war.

Certain causes have generated massive effects, which need immediate and comprehensive solutions in order to de-escalate the deep Iran-Israeli tensions and other wars in the Middle East. Religious differences have to be tolerated and respected until they cross the threshold for massive outrages. Ideological differences have led the region to deepened grievances that need much time for their resolution. Iran is propagating an anti-westernization agenda, while Israel is working on Ideological Expansionist Nationalism (IEN) and Political Separatist Nationalism (PSN). All these have done nothing good in the regional affairs. Global powers take this opportunity to meddle in the regional affairs by being opportunists and want to take full advantage of the absence of an adversary. China filled the vacuum created by the USA in ameliorating the Iran-Saudi rivalry. 

To encounter terrorist activities and proxy wars, comprehensive strategic frameworks and effective governance are the ultimate solutions, developed by proper democratic means practiced within the state. Arms control should be ensured by both states by acting with rationality and maturity. The rational actor model best explains the cost and benefit analysis taken before going to war. In today’s world of nuclear warfare, there will be no winners, but devastations will take place at huge levels. The two-state solution will resolve the Palestinian ethnic cleansing. The Muslim world has to unite for brutally suppressed Palestinians and all other factions of the region. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) remained slow, as it did not conduct any remarkable session in the past few months. Iran spoke in the OIC session of 2023 for Palestinians. In the case of Iran-Israeli tensions, nothing profound seemed to happen, except the USA called for a ceasefire and mediation.

In the end, the escalated tensions between Iran and Israel generated serious repercussions for regional peace, stability, and security. If this aggression were not controlled (it seemed to be controlled as a ceasefire was brokered by the USA), it would lead towards another great World War III as small bilateral wars advance the ‘domino effect’ in generating large-scale warfare. This issue generated after the Israeli genocide of Palestine, the change of regime in Syria after a long civil war, and Israeli attacks on Lebanon to eliminate Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

The religious, ideological, terrorist, nuclear, and Palestinian factors paved the way for Iran-Israel tensions that are impacting the region at a larger scale. The formation of blocs, the failure of the Muslim world to stand in solidarity with oppressed states in the Middle East, massive terrorist attacks, the nuclear arms race, and the Palestinian blockade all demand immediate solutions. A comprehensive strategic plan for regional stability by the Muslim world is in dire need of time. As the Middle East is the most volatile region with respect to stability and security in the region. Conclusively, instead of sporadic efforts, a concerted plan is required by international stakeholders for the maintenance of the dignity and sanctity of international law, peace, and humanity.

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Earth versus the US: Will Trump administration deteriorate U. S. international legitimacy?

What is international legitimacy?

States have always needed to guarantee their existence and sovereignty; law and security became, therefore, the key to power dynamics in international relations. As the survival of the states has depended directly on the proper handling of their interrelationship, the international stage soon prevailed over the internal one as the reason for their existence.

The international society, anarchic by nature, has never allowed a previous binding legal order or even the ruling of a central authority. This amorphous and pulverized society has demanded from states the set of strategies aimed at the prevailing of its force in the world system, and due to various standards of expression and capacity they own, some states have used its legitimacy as a way of equating their place in the world and signing their international insertion.

If the international theatre is anarchic, the reasons of state are consequently selfish; nations have been conducting their mutual relations according to the customs originating from the accommodation of power. Paradoxically, a dialectic between sovereignties and the progressive interdependence of nations emerged as a phenomenon that has evinced the potential of international socialization, as well as the existence of a minimum coexisting ruled world community.

Considering that the international legal order is sovereignty-based and that there are no transcendent values—not even peace, justice, and equity—that can affirm its basic rule, interstate relations depend on intricate power and policy games.

Sovereign legal orders aimed at self-defense and security strategies have put in check the legal formalism in favor of realism in international society. This is the main characteristic of the international order that makes it entirely different from the internal one: the prevailing of policy over law. No matter how a domestic legal order forces political struggles, there will always be a founding rule that provides the state legal validity and a minimal government structure, with vertical authority, that enables the subsistence of its society.

On the other hand, international order, even surrounded by world organizations, law, and treaties, can’t do without policy, precisely because of being anarchic, horizontal, amorphous, and unequal. So, for prevailing in the strongly political world theater, states have to use something beyond pure international legal elements as a non-conventional way of equating power—authority, or rather, legitimacy.

This is not an easy task. The concept of international legitimacy is nebulous itself, as it gravitates beyond the borders of morality, ideology, and law, and it can simply be defined as a sort of moral acceptability that justifies states’ authority. Neither diplomacy nor international law can provide sufficient elements or concepts for defining it.

2. Why do nations need international legitimacy?

The friction between power and law is what moves interstate relationships, and it is responsible for encouraging states’ constant dissatisfaction concerning the international system status quo. Decolonization in Africa and Asia, the non-aligned movement, and the third-world onslaught against the international financial system are all phenomena that emphasize this friction.

Even the assumption of stability in the international system and its binding rules can’t mitigate the effects of the friction between power and law. Sovereignty remains the pillar of world relations rather than international law. States don’t abide by rules unless it seems convenient, helpful, and adaptable to their strategic geopolitical calculation.

The international society is a very heterogeneous environment in terms of power and capacities. Consent—and not consensus—is what moves interstate relationship structure, marked by an absolutely unequal distribution of power, which leads to its cyclical freeze and to the legitimacy crisis of hegemonic states.

Whether hegemonic or peripheral, states depend on the consent of the others to achieve their strategic aims. Tradition, besides consent, also aggregates nations, and this is why the international law itself is based on a tradition derived from natural law. It is no coincidence that nations handle their diplomatic strategies of insertion and chase for consent using their reasons of state—the real meaning of their political traditions.

The U.S. molded its political tradition and the basis of its international legitimacy on hegemonic leadership. The relations of power between the U.S. and the rest of the world have always followed this premise, but President Trump’s recent actions are undermining the consent achieved by Washington, as well as its own international insertion. He seems to ignore the fact that, like any other nation, the U.S. depends on the consent of the world community to keep its leadership role.

3. Hegemony: the U.S. international insertion

Since its very early years the U.S. reason of state was forged in a biblical and messianic character based on Puritanism. The resulting collective consciousness led the Americans towards expansionism in their own territory and afterwards to international hegemony.

The U.S. arrogated to itself a leading role in the world on behalf of a supposedly elevated social order, responsible for conducting progress and democracy wherever needed. Based on the idea that the U.S. was divinely ordained to preserve the unequivocal rights given to men by God—equality, liberty, life, and happiness—and to promote democracy ideals, the world consented to the Manifest Destiny Doctrine, the Monroe Doctrine, and the Roosevelt Corollary as acceptable sources of Washington’s international legitimacy.

European countries, which had long resisted American initiatives in Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific, now accepted Washington’s supremacy. The world wars gradually affirmed the international community’s consent to U.S. authority, side by side with the Soviet Union during the bipolar era, and now as a hegemonic nation struggling for world power with earlier peripheral China.

The U.S. hegemonic legitimacy would not have survived the Cold War if it wasn’t for the consent derived from Washington’s objective behavior and respect for formal institutions like NATO, the Security Council of the U.N., or even the accepted currency in the world’s financial system.

Above consent, the West block nourished the belief that the policy of the U.S. really supported free peoples who were resisting attempted subjugation by the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. Both the Truman and Eisenhower Doctrines gained authority by the acceptance of half of the world, and this consolidated U.S. leadership in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle and Far East.

Reagan’s patient determination on reversing the course of American policy abroad by strengthening Washington’s defenses and recapturing world supremacy from Moscow was rewarded with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. However, with the end of the Cold War, the U.S. entered uncharted territory, as it meant the end of the divided world legitimacy shared hitherto with the Soviet Union.

During the Cold War, the U.S. could cite the threat of Soviet retaliation as a reason to avoid intervening in the affairs of other countries. With that threat gone, American leaders, facing an unprecedented responsibility, would have to weigh each prospective intervention on its own merits.

If one country attacked another, should the U.S. defend the victim? If the government of a country oppressed its own people, should the U.S. move to stop the oppression? These questions—and the answers American presidents gave to them—would reshape U.S. international legitimacy and its further foreign policy, as well as the world order itself.

As the only superpower still standing, the U.S. power could not preserve American strategists from having to make difficult decisions about how to use such resources. Inheriting the chaos left by the breakup of the Soviet Union, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden outlined a “new world order” based in the general and accepted principle of deterring international aggression.

American unilateralism, strongly endorsed by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, made the world accept fully the “global policeman” role the U.S. had been playing since the 1991 invasion of Iraq. In playing the role of “world cop,” strategists and advisers of both Republican and Democratic presidents asserted the right to the preventive use of force.

In other words, the U.S., far stronger militarily and economically than any other nation, played its role as supporter or final arbiter of most international disputes. Iraq, Kosovo, Serbia, the Middle East, Somalia, and Ukraine have all faced direct or indirect interventions by the U.S. by reference to international law or, last but not least, to the world’s same wavelength.

President Donald Trump seems to despise the highly interventionist and hegemonic legacy that the U.S. accumulated in the last 30 years—in his view a heavy and useless burden that Washington should no longer support—as well as the eighty-year-old world order and the international law system itself.

4. Trump’s will: a new world order?

Conceiving the world as a dynamic, integrated system has always meant the difference between success and failure in the decisions and actions of great leaders throughout history.

Once reappointed for another term in the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump was granted the opportunity of choosing between success and failure. Surprisingly, it looks like he has chosen to face the world not in a global manner, as a wise statesman, but from an absolutely anarchic, fickle, and irregular point of view.

This is an equivocal perspective: the three-century successful premise based on the opposition between the internal order and the international anarchy can’t find support in the present world. Although the international order is anarchic, some institutional, behavioral, and subjective elements that shape regular empirical situations come from it.

Modern international law, unlike its formalist classical matrix, aims to shape social reality, not only on the global scale but also at the core of the states. The present organization of the international system has to do with both the power and interest of the wealthier nations and the peripheral ones’ sense of security and belonging to the international community.

In general, nations yearn for sovereignty, formal equality, human rights, economic development, stable commerce, and a healthy environment. In a nutshell, both peripheral and powerful states yearn for stability in world order, and the hegemonic ones are even more interested in promoting it. Besides being the main beneficiaries of the world order stability, they also have enormous influence on shaping the content of international rules and strengthening global organizations.

Thus, it’s quite impossible to conceive a project of a new world order under Trump’s actions. His strategic equivocation is evident: instead of maintaining the U.S. leadership, the measures of international disaggregation so far are undermining Washington’s legitimacy.

The international community expects the USA to be the USA. Despite the emergence of Russia, China, and the Global South as alternative centers of power, the world still expects genuine leadership from Washington, and this role requires the acceptance of predictable patterns in states’ relationships that only global governance shaped by international law and systemic persistence can provide.

Denying the international system is definitely not the way to improve a new world order, and it will result exactly in the opposite of Trump’s objective—“make America great again”—insofar as the U.S.’s global leadership depends on its strategic insertion into the global regime.

5. The U.S.’s international legitimacy towards deterioration

While Washington is stepping back, Beijing is reinforcing its global insertion and searching constantly for the international community’s consent and for a global leadership role. The Chinese strategists and advisers are fully aware that the observance of international law and the pursuit of the world’s consent are the keys to consistent international legitimacy.

In the daily routine of international system life, large numbers of agreements and customs are complied with. However, the need is felt in the hectic interplay of world affairs for some kind of regulatory framework or rules network within which the game can be played, and international law fulfills that requirement. States feel this necessity because it imports an element of stability and predictability into the situation.

As nations are usually involved in disagreements or disputes, it is handy to have recourse to the rules of international law since at least there is a common frame of reference—a mutually understandable vocabulary book that suggests possible solutions.

The element of reciprocity at work acts as a powerful weapon of gathering and forbearance among nations. States quite often do not pursue one particular course of action that might bring them short-term gains because it could disrupt the mesh of reciprocal tolerance, which could very well bring long-term disadvantages. This constitutes an inducement to states to act reasonably and moderate demands in the expectation that this will similarly encourage other states to act reasonably and so avoid confrontations.

Observing the international law and behaving according to the world system by mutual agreement is the path to improve international legitimacy and to influence and to alter law patterns or customs in the international community.

International legitimacy and international law—and not morality, ethics, or even political mottos—are the elements directly used by states for pursuing their strategic objectives and claims.

“Making America great again” is an empty political motto that definitely can’t subsidize American international legitimacy. Behaving objectively, but diplomatically, in terms of power and showing respect for formal world institutions was surely the way the U.S. forged its supremacy and conquered the consent of the international community.

What made America “great” was precisely its reason of state, based on the tradition of hegemonic leadership. American strategists have always known how to make Washington’s authority and legitimacy prevail over the intricate power and policy games and over the expectations of the coexisting world community.

American legitimacy could even resist the last 30 years of unilateralism and preventive use of force, when the world community fully questioned U.S. leadership, because the strategists and advisers of Washington have never forgotten the need for world socialization and the existence of a ruled world system.

Trump’s foreign policy, contrary to the Chinese or Russian ones, ignores that the consent of the world community is essential for a nation to keep its leadership role and that the world order won’t forgo stability and its institutional and behavioral elements.

The world is a dynamic integrated system that shapes social reality at the core of the states. Trump’s stubbornness in the brutal opposition between the internal and the international order, and in finding enemies everywhere, even among traditional friends, will surely lead the U.S. legitimacy towards deterioration, besides putting the country against the Earth.

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US – China Visa War: Competing Visions for Talent and Migration

The decision of the Trump administration to raise H-1B visa fees to $100,000 has predictably evoked strong responses in the US and other parts of the world. The Trump administration signed a proclamation on September 19, 2025.

 The Trump administration’s announcement has predictably received strong support from a section of Republicans—especially those belonging to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) camp.One of the countries that is likely to be impacted by this decision in more than one way is India. Indians received over 70% of the H-1B visas issued in 2024 and happened to be the largest beneficiary of the program. Chinese nationals received 12% of the H-1B visas and happened to be the second largest beneficiary of the program. Also, several Indian companies, like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys, have been amongst the biggest beneficiaries of the H-1B visa.

China’s K Visa: The Symbolic Importance

While the US has announced this decision, China has said that it will be introducing a K Visa—which will take effect on October 1, 2025. The K visa will be an addition to the existing 12 visa types issued by China.

The visa seeks to attract talented professionals who have graduated from reputable institutions in China and other countries, especially in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Management (STEM) disciplines. In a statement, China’s Ministry of Justice said:

          ‘Barring specific age, educational background, and work experience requirements, applications for K visas do not require a domestic employer or entity to issue an invitation, and the application process will also be more streamlined.’

The symbolic importance of the K Visa, at a time when the US, along with other countries like Australia, is becoming more inward-looking in terms of immigration policies, is important. It remains to be seen if the K visa is successful in attracting talented professionals, especially from countries that do not have cordial ties with China.

It has been argued that IT companies may also seek to take advantage of the K visa by setting up operations in China. They are, however, likely to remain cautious, given the unpredictable global geopolitical situation.

Could the K-1 Visa help China in attracting international students?

The K Visa could make China a favored destination for international students—especiallystudents from parts of Asia and Africa. While US soft power has diminished in recent years, China has been taking various steps to enhance its soft power. One important tool for the same has been attracting international students.

 Given the revision in immigration policies of countries like the US, Australia, and Canada, international students from these countries have already been looking for alternatives. It would be pertinent to point out that European nations—especially Germany, France, and Spain—have been seeking to attract international students as well as professionals. Apart from liberalizing student procedures with the objective of attracting students who could contribute to innovation and R&D, several European nations, especially Germany, are beginning to introduce English-speaking courses. Other countries like the UAE and Singapore have also been making attempts to attract international students.

Conclusion

While the overall impact of the K visa remains to be seen, as discussed earlier, the timing cannot be ignored. It is unrealistic to start comparing this scheme with the H-1B visa since the US remains a favored destination for professionals from different parts of the world. Apart from this, many commentators have been arguing that the recent fee hike by the Trump administration is not feasible and will need to be revised.

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Are we in the twilight of scientific age?

Meritocracy in the 21st century is fast becoming the new aristocracy. Envisaged as an ideal to counter inequality, it has become one to create, sustain, and justify it. Or is it a new mediocrity? Earlier, meritocracy was practiced as a smokescreen for a system that was rigged. Now mediocrity is being celebrated as a new gospel. We are witnessing the slow death of classics and literature, theories and science.

Thanks to the dominance of multimedia technology, traditional literacy has lost its primacy, and we have become a “post-literate society.” But this retreat is far more serious, as we are retreating from serious reading even in academia. The retreat from reason is another worrying trend. However, the most alarming phenomenon is what Paul R. Goddard, emeritus professor at the University of the West of England, and Angus G. Dagleish of the University of London call “the death of science.”

Data deluge is threatening to end scientific theory and the scientific method. Today, the science industry is driven by greed and ambition. It represses imagination and freedom and destroys novelty and diversity of ideas. Science is now a technocratic specialization. We have long forgotten the philosophy of science.

Martin Lopez Corredoira of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias argues in his book, The Twilight of the Scientific Age, that after centuries of great achievements science is going through “an exhaustion of new forms” and fatigue has “reached our culture in all of its manifestations, including the pure sciences.”

The search for great truths is on the back burner. Some argue that even the Nobel Prizes are being increasingly awarded for speculative hypotheses, rather than concrete discoveries.

Mediocrity is sweeping the world. Lies, calumnies, and specious arguments are no longer the hallmarks of political discourse today; these now characterize scientific endeavors as well. Managers and politicians have taken over where previously the scientists were in charge.

 There is a tendency to abhor experts. Political correctness now dictates what science must produce and at whose benefit. Many scientists and scientific institutions have now become what Paul R. Goddard calls “the high priests of a new religion.”

Trump’s America, many believe, has regressed back to the myth of meritocracy. As Lauren Tucker, honorary research fellow at the School of Mass Communication Research Center, University of Wisconsin, says, Trump’s Cabinet includes “cronies, grifters, sycophants, neophytes, and those whose qualifications begin and end with ‘once praised Trump on Fox News.’””Trump is bringing back affirmative action for the rich, White mediocrity.

President Trump has mounted a concerted effort to undermine federal scientific research, particularly research relating to climate change. The Trump administration has also removed scientific information from regulatory documents. sought to restrict or prevent further climate change research, including by removing and reassigning federal government scientists.

Federal agencies are facing the pressure to reduce spending on scientific research, with the administration proposing deep across-the-board cuts in many budget cycles.

President Joe Biden had vowed to “end the politics and follow the science” when dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. The first Trump administration regularly suppressed, downplayed, or simply ignored scientific research. This regression is by no means confined to the US.

Last year, over 100 scientis­ts in India decried what they described as the government’s “antagonistic stance” to science and evidence-based thinking and its support of “false narratives, unfounded opinions, and a cloak of religiosity to instill adherence to a majoritarian idea of India.”

We are going through a phase of new regression. Cultural critic Neil Postman persuasively argues how technology today has become an institution. It has acquired the power to bend culture to its own agenda. Its worst fallout can be seen in the field of education. Schooling has become what he calls “a trivial pursuit and a mechanical exercise.”

America’s educational decline is most worrisome. The Nation’s Report Card’s 2024 results confirm a long-term crisis in education, with student performance stagnating or declining despite decades of federal spending and education reform initiatives. And it is not as if efforts have not been made to improve the students’ performance. Federal interventions such as No Child Left Behind (2002), Common Core (2010), and the Every Student Succeeds Act (2015) were all designed to improve student academic outcomes.

The maximum damage has been done by the digital media. Lack of critical thinking is the result of the primacy of the visual over textual learning, algorithm-driven echo chambers, and the bite-sized overload. Social media has ensured that we are more likely to read stuff that confirms our views rather than engage with diverse perspectives.Only through serious research can the past’s inconsistencies be accounted for. Today, McLuhan’s “mass man” has become the “algorithmic man.”

What is worrying is the gradual decline, if not collapse, of high-end, problem-solving research. The slow death of literature and the retreat from serious reading mark a cultural crisis, with far-reaching consequences for politics, education, and civic life. Without books and deep reading, society risks becoming shallow, distracted, and dangerously unserious.

If we dispense with ontology and philosophy, our education will not prepare us for the future. From ancient scrolls to modern paperbacks, books have been the vessels carrying humanity’s stories, knowledge, and imagination. These vessels are being suddenly wiped out.

The post-truth world is sliding into an age of “un-enlightenment.” Bill Gates warned in 2017 that “technologies such as social media let you go off with like-minded people, so you’re not mixing and sharing and understanding other points of view.”

Anti-science sneering, conspiracy theories, and a medieval pottage of religious extremism sweeping the world will have far-reaching consequences. The current Prussian school system produces compliant citizens. After several crushing defeats at the hands of Napoleon, Prussian political and military elites believed that independent thinking was the root cause of their defeat.

What would the world be without literature and theories? Literature has long been a mirror reflecting the human experience, allowing us to empathize with others and understand ourselves better. Literature doesn’t just tell stories; it shapes lives.

Science, with its emphasis on observation, hypothesis testing, and empirical evidence, provides a robust framework for understanding the world, challenging existing assumptions and discovering new knowledge. 

There can be no social science without critical theories. The intellectual’s job is to tell the truth. In fact, as Thomas Huxley says, “Science and literature are not two things, but two sides of one thing.”

All said, the way things are, reading books for pleasure will one day be the province of a special “reading class,” much as it was before the arrival of mass literacy in the second half of the nineteenth century.

A new Dark Age has begun if we go by the titles of books like Jane Jacob’s Dark Age Ahead (2004), Morris Berman’s Dark Ages America: The Final Phase of Empire (2011), James Kirchik’s The End of Europe: Dictators, Demagogues, and the Coming Dark Age (2017), and James Bridle’s New Dark Age: Technology and the End of the Future (2018).

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How European Leaders Lost Their Credibility in Gaza

Recently, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that US support for “everything that the Israeli government is doing” limits the EU’s leverage to change the situation on the ground in the Gaza Strip.

Subsequently, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, proposed sanctions to Israeli ministers and partial suspension of Israel trade deal. On Wednesday, the EU Commission’s review discovered – after 21 months of mass atrocities in Gaza and violent pogroms in the West Bank – that actions taken by the Israeli government in the Palestinian-occupied territories represent a ‘breach of essential elements relating to respect for human rights and democratic principles,’ which permits the EU to suspend the agreement unilaterally.

Recently, these sentiments were reinforced with the recognition of the state of Palestine by U.S. allies – the UK, Canada and Australia – and more recently by France. 

Observers of Brussels declared that the EU had become tough on genocide. In reality, it was a last-minute effort by the two EU leaders to fuse rising outrage against EU’s Gaza policies and charges they were complicit in Israel’s atrocities.

How Kallas emboldened Israel in Gaza

Addressing the annual EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) conference in Brussels, Kajas said that US backing of Israel undermines EU leverage to stop the “Gaza war.” Yet, the United States has supported Israel for more than half a century.

“We are struggling because 27 member states have different positions,” on the issue, Kallas explained. “Europe can only use full force when it acts together.” In this way, accessorial complicity is first deflected to Washington and then attributed to the absence of European unity, which Kallas has long called for, to confront Russia. In other words, the EU Gaza apology was a thinly-veiled effort for a plea to unity Kallas hoped to turn against Russia in Ukraine.

When asked about “double-standard” accusations towards the bloc on its Gaza policy, Kallas said it is not true that the EU is inactive on Gaza. Yet, previously she had opposed intervention in Gaza. In mid-July, Kallas and the foreign ministers of the EU member states chose not to take any action against Israel over alleged war crimes in the Gaza war and settler violence in the West Bank.

The then-proposed sanctions against Israel would have included suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement, suspending visa-free travel, and blocking imports from Israeli settlements. This decision emboldened the Netanyahu cabinet, which saw the EU’s decision not to impose sanctions on Israel as a diplomatic victory. It also led UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese to conclude that EU officials like Kallas were complicit in Israeli war crimes in Gaza.

The EU is Israel’s biggest trading partner, accounting for a third of Israel’s total trade in goods with the world in 2024, whereas Israel is only the EU’s 31st largest trading partner. Consequently, the EU could easily have sanctioned Israeli trade right after the first genocidal atrocities in late 2023, yet it chose not to. Why?

How von der Leyen undermined EU’s credibility

Von der Leyen has a track-record of intimate relations with Israel. It was a source of controversy already before the Gaza catastrophe. On the 75th anniversary of Israel’s independence, half a year before October 7, 2023, she referred to Israel as a “vibrant democracy” in the Middle East that made “the desert bloom.” These remarks were criticized as racist by the foreign ministry of the Palestinian Authority because they erased the history of Palestinians in what is today Israel.

After the Hamas offensive, von der Leyen was criticized by EU lawmakers and diplomats for supporting Israel and not calling for a ceasefire. A week after October 7, she rushed to visit Israel to express solidarity, even as the Netanyahu cabinet spoke openly on the coming destruction of Gaza, and the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. Then-EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell criticized her for the pro-Israeli stance which “had a high geopolitical cost for Europe.”

The visit and the rhetoric also sparked furor among 841 EU staff who signed a letter to von der Leyen criticizing her stance on the conflict. In their view, the commission was giving “a free hand to the acceleration and the legitimacy of a war crime in the Gaza Strip” and warned that the EU was “losing all credibility and the position as a fair, equitable and humanist broker.”

In reality, that credibility has eroded for years. By the early 2020s, more than 800 European financial institutions, including Europe’s most luminous financial giants, had financial relationships with over 50 businesses that were actively involved with Israeli settlements.

Why the belated moral outrage

Recently, the European Commission presented a proposal for tougher measures against Israel to the European Union, which featured suspending parts of the EU-Israel trade agreement and sanctioning Israeli far-right ministers and some West Bank settlers, along with Hamas leadership. These measures are very much in line with the EC chief’s previous warning. But why do they come only now – after 21 months of genocidal atrocities, the obliteration of Gaza and a quarter of a million killed or injured Palestinians?

A qualified majority vote among EU governments will still be required to pass the measures, with the support of at least 15 of the 27 EU members representing two-thirds of the EU population.

Moreover, von der Leyden’s Gaza criticism was carefully calculated to limit the scope of possible sanctions. “Man-made famine can never be a weapon of war,” she said. “For the sake of the children, for the sake of humanity – this must stop.”

Yet, Israel’s weaponized famines did not start few weeks ago. They date from the 2006 Palestine democratic election, which was won by Hamas in both Gaza and the West Bank. It led to Israel’s blockade, which was supported by the U.S. and the EU, and the Israeli-manufactured famine, designed to starve Gaza. The blockade paved the way to almost two decades of impoverishment, hunger, unemployment and thus to October 7, 2023. But it did not trigger condemnations by von der Leyden or the then-EU leaders.

Worse, the world witnessed the first starving victims in Gaza already in spring 2024. Yet, neither von Der Leyden nor other European leaders demanded the end to Israel’s actions at the time. And by the turn of 2023/24, still another famine way ensued, with similar silence in Brussels. It was only the third wave of famine in mid-2025 that changed their views. But why?

“What is happening in Gaza,” von der Leyden said, “has shaken the conscience of the world… These images are simply catastrophic.” That was the difference: not the realities of weaponized famines, which the world had witnessed for almost two decades in Gaza, but the images.

As those photos of starved bodies, particularly of children and babies, could no longer be halted or sidelined in international media, EU politicians, pushed by their constituencies, were compelled to act.

What European leaders chose not to do

It was when the European leaders were charged for accessorial complicity that von der Leyden and Kallas reacted. What the former proposed was “a package of measures” against Israel over its ongoing genocidal assault on Gaza. Or as she put it – and let’s italicize the key terms – “We will propose sanctions on the extremist ministers and on violent settlers. And we will also propose a partial suspension of the Association Agreement on trade-related matters.”

The EU would not use its full arsenal to change Israel’s conduct. It would only go after a few ministers of the Netanyahu cabinet, but not the cabinet itself, even though most of its members had been complicit to the Gaza catastrophe with some supporting even harsher measures, including “nuking” Gaza.

Similarly, the EU would only go after a few token settlers, not the illegal settlements that now house up to 750,000 Jewish settlers. Nor would the EU go after hardline Israeli politicians and civil administrators who have been preparing the incorporation of the West Bank into the pre-1967 Israel since their electoral triumph in late 2022.

The ties between Israel and the United States have expanded from hedging and strategic partnership into a virtual symbiosis. Since 1950, Israel has received more than $120 billion in U.S. aid, most of it in military aid; after October 7, this aid has soared up to $23 billion. But Washington is not Israel’s only ally. In the past half a decade, only three countries—the US (66% of Israel’s total arms imports), Germany (33%) and Italy (1%) —have supplied most of Israel’s arms.

Several other European countries have supplied vital military components, ammunition and services, including the UK, France and Spain. Meanwhile, small EU members like the tiny Finland are increasingly reliant on Israeli arms imports.

The elevated arms transfers reflect the contested European shift toward rearmament, at the expense of welfare and social services – despite the soaring challenges of aging demographics and climate change.

Genocide investigation against von der Leyen

Both Washington and Brussels are complicit to mass atrocities, due to their arms exports to Israel and financing through military aid, not to mention diplomatic and intelligence support. Article 3 of the Genocide Convention defines the crimes that can be punished under the convention, and these crimes include complicity.

In May 2024, the Geneva International Peace Research Institute (GIPRI), an NGO with UN consultative status, requested an investigation against the EC president, Ursula von der Leyen, for complicity in war crimes and genocide against Palestinian civilians. Her complicity was attributed to “violations of Articles 6, 7 and 8 of the Rome Statute by her positive actions (military, political, diplomatic support to Israel) and by her failure to take timely action on behalf of the European Commission to help prevent genocide as required by the 1948 Genocide Convention.”

According to Professor William Schabas, perhaps the leading scholar of genocide, ”von der Leyen is clearly reflecting a position taken by many EU-governments, which is one of very unconditional support of Israel, and they’re doing this flying in the face of public information suggesting that Israel is committing terrible crimes in Gaza and the West Bank.”

The issue with too many European leaders is no longer only the crime of complicity, but also the concerted effort to deny that Israel’s crimes and atrocities against Palestinians constitute genocide. Such denials should be seen as a form of “incitement” to hatred and violence, condemned by the Genocide Convention.

Legal efforts to go after genocide complicity entered a new stage recently, when a group of lawyers filed a criminal complaint against German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, key government officials and arms trade executives on Friday. A dozen high-ranking officials of the former and current German government and CEOs of arms manufacturers were accused of aiding and abetting Israel’s genocide in Gaza, by the European Legal Support Center (ELSC). “Given the undeniable, genocidal consequences of this support, we seek to hold them accountable,” said Nadija Samour, ELSC’s senior legal officer.

Recently, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez noted that “what we’re now witnessing in Gaza is perhaps one of the darkest episodes of international relations in the 21st century.”

Tragically, the European leaders share full accessorial complicity in the decimation of Gaza and the genocide of its residents, plus the incorporation of the West Bank – that is, the massive moral collapse that is likely to cast a long, dark shadow over the 21st century because what has happened in Gaza is likely to be replicated elsewhere, with even more lethal results.

Author’s note: Building on The Obliteration Doctrine, the original commentary was published by Antiwar.com on September 23, 2025.

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Why China need not worry about Nepal?

In traditional terms, a political crisis in a neighboring country is often seen as a direct challenge to that country’s national security and regional strategic interests. For most countries around the world, the situation in Nepal following the bloody mass protests, sectarian strife, and successive government crises in recent years seems to have reinforced that perception.

Moreover, Nepal is the southern gateway to Tibet, a pivot country between China and India, and a link in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia. Instability here would naturally make Beijing worry about the risk of losing influence, broken investment commitments, or even challenges to border security.

However, this is not necessarily a threat to China, and it can even take advantage of this crisis. This is reflected in the saying “When the world is in chaos, the situation is wonderful”; the power of the ruling party is further consolidated. Former Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong used this argument to explain why he launched the Great Cultural Revolution in the 60s and 70s. If we apply this logic to Nepal today, political instability is not necessarily a risk for China but can become an opportunity to expand its influence, reorder the region, and test its diplomatic capabilities.

Chaos is not always a risk; it can be an opportunity.

Mao looked at the turbulent periods in Chinese history, such as the Five Barbarians and the warlord wars of the early 20th century, and concluded that the collapse of order does not mean the end of opportunities for development. Instability can open up a power vacuum for new forces. Nepal today reflects exactly that.

Faced with a divided political landscape, Nepal’s various parties and factions have sought international support to maintain their positions. This has enabled China to engage more strongly through aid, credit, infrastructure investment, or party-to-party diplomacy, which is Beijing’s strong point. An unstable government is more likely to make concessions in its dealings with international partners, as long as it receives timely recognition and support.

Furthermore, as Nepal’s factions compete for power, they tend to maintain good relations with China so as not to be pushed off the board. This strengthens Beijing’s position in the long term: rather than fearing a loss of influence, China can exploit the divisions to ensure that whoever comes to power will have difficulty “breaking away” from Beijing. In Maoist logic, “great chaos” means an increase in the ability to “divide and rule,” a powerful tool for maintaining lasting influence.

The old order being shaken up will create opportunities to build new influence.

Another key point of Mao’s thesis is that when the old order weakens, the force of stability and abundant resources becomes more prominent and can easily shape the new order. Nepal is in such a situation today. Political parties have taken turns in power but have failed to maintain stability, causing the state apparatus to lose credibility. In this context, China—with its economic potential, ability to deploy aid quickly, and stable position internally—has emerged as an “alternative pillar.”

More importantly, the collapse or restructuring of the Nepalese government does not mean the end of all engagement with China. In fact, the BRI, the trans-Himalayan railway, or energy cooperation can be renegotiated in Beijing’s favor if China offers an attractive package. In a situation where Nepal needs capital and technology to recover, Beijing can completely reshape the rules of the game.

In addition, instability has reduced Nepal’s dependence on India, which is often criticized by the Nepalese people for interfering deeply in domestic politics. As trust in New Delhi declines, strategic space opens up for Beijing. In other words, “great turmoil” in Nepal could be a factor in accelerating the shift in the balance of power in South Asia, tilting further towards China.

Instability is a test of the sustainability of regional strategy.

Mao once asserted, “The more chaos, the easier it is to recognize who is friend and who is foe.” Instability is not only a risk but also an opportunity to classify forces, measure loyalty, and adjust strategy accordingly. With Nepal, China can observe how parties behave in crisis: which factions seek help from Beijing and which side leans towards New Delhi or the West. These signals are real data that help China adjust policies, choose suitable partners, and strengthen the “security net” in the border region.

At the same time, the crisis in Nepal can be seen as a “practice” for China’s crisis diplomacy. Handling Nepal will provide valuable experience for Beijing in the event of instability in Myanmar, Pakistan, or even Central Asia. If handled successfully, China will demonstrate its ability to engage flexibly in the region, both protecting its core interests and avoiding falling into a US-style “quagmire” in the Middle East.

Nepal is in chaos, but China is fine.

The key point in Mao’s thinking is that the issue is not whether the world is in chaos, but whether China is stable internally. Because if it maintains domestic stability, has a strong economic foundation, and has a flexible foreign policy system, then external instability can hardly shake core strategic interests.

Nepal is just one link in China’s overall South Asia and Himalayan subregional strategy. Its spiral of instability does not directly threaten Beijing’s border security or overall power. In fact, the contrast between a stable China and an unstable Nepal reinforces Beijing’s image as a “guarantor of stability” in the region. This has a dual benefit: it both enhances China’s prestige in the eyes of its neighbors and counterbalances the role of India and Western powers.

In fact, China has skillfully used humanitarian diplomacy, such as COVID-19 vaccine support, disaster aid, and infrastructure investment, to demonstrate its role as a “pillar of stability.” In the chaotic Nepalese context, this image is even more prominent. Beijing does not need to worry too much about short-term losses; instead, it can exploit the instability to assert its long-term position.

Viewed through a conventional realist lens, the political crisis in Nepal inevitably poses many risks for China, from lost investment to instability on the border. But if we apply Mao Zedong’s thinking about “great chaos,” where chaos is a prerequisite for a new order, then Nepal now represents an opportunity for Beijing to increase its engagement, consolidate its influence, and test its regional strategy. The key is not whether Nepal is in chaos, but whether China can maintain internal stability and exploit the gaps of the times. In this logic, Nepal’s instability does not cause China to lose sleep; on the contrary, it could become a catalyst for Beijing to consolidate its power and influence in the Himalayan subregion.

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Pakistan-Vietnam to sign PTA soon

Pakistan and Vietnam are both growing economies, and cooperation between the two countries is essential. Both countries are committed to enhancing trade relations and struggling to reach an Agreement of Preferential Trade (PTA).

Pakistan and Vietnam established diplomatic relations on 8 November 1972. The relations are largely based on mutual trade and international political cooperation between the two countries. However, relations greatly warmed up in the 2000s, and Pakistan reopened its embassy in Hanoi in October 2000. Vietnam also reopened its embassy in Islamabad and trade office in Karachi in December and November 2005, respectively. Relations between the two countries have continued to remain friendly, with Vietnam expressing an interest in increased economic and military cooperation with Pakistan. The heads of both nations have in recent times paid official visits to each other, with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf visiting Vietnam in May 2001 and Vietnamese President Trần Đức Lương also paying an official visit to Pakistan in March 2004. Throughout the following decade, several visits were made by various Vietnamese and Pakistani ministries to each other. A major part of Pakistan’s pursuit to enhance its relationship with Vietnam is outlined in Pakistan’s “Vision East Asia” strategy. Vietnam is an active member of ASEAN, and Pakistan always tends to establish close ties with ASEAN.

Recently Vietnam’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Mr. Pham Anh Tuan, speaking at the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), revealed his country’s strong will and ensured all possible support. Pakistan is also in dire need of expanding its trade with Vietnam, and Vietnam is one of the rapidly growing economies of the region and can assist Pakistan in reviving its economy.

Although bilateral trade reached $850 million in 2024 and was expected to cross $1 billion in 2025. But the real potential is much more than this, and the strong will from both sides will definitely bring fruits in the coming years. Both countries have set a target of 5 billion US dollars.

Vietnam is a country hard-hit by the Trump tariff and also needs to explore diversified trading partners. In fact, Trump’s tariffs have destabilized the global trading patterns, partners, routes, etc. It might have effect on the US itself, but, to many other countries of the world has adverse impact. Definitely, a few countries might be beneficiaries too. Like Pakistan, it was facing tough challenges from many other countries while exporting textile products to the US, but after Trump tariffs were imposed on some of Pakistan’s competitors, Pakistan has leverage over them in exporting textile products to the US.

Pakistan’s strengths in textiles, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals may be beneficial for Vietnam. Currently, Pakistan’s exports are corn, raw cotton, yarn, leather, pharmaceutical products, and textiles. But a huge workforce, cheaper labor, and rich natural resources may attract Vietnam. Pakistan is offering enabling environments and attractive packages for foreign investors. The establishment of SIFC to facilitate foreign investors and ease of doing business in Pakistan may become fruitful initiatives of Pakistan.

At the same time, rapid industrialization and export expertise of Vietnam are significant for Pakistan. Currently, Vietnam exports to Pakistan electrical and electronic equipment, coffee, tea, spices, and man-made filaments. But definitely it is to broaden in the near future.

Vietnam is interested in attracting Pakistani investment in its manufacturing and technology sectors, while Pakistan seeks to encourage Vietnamese investment. PTA is essential to achieve higher goals for both countries.

Trust, strong political will, and the highest-level support from both governments will enable the set target of USD 5 billion to be achieved soon conveniently. The Pakistani business community is ready and already in touch with their counterparts in Vietnam.

The aim is to improve the living standard of common people in both countries, eradicate poverty, and promote peace, stability, and prosperity mutually. Both countries can contribute to the regional and global economy. Both are peace-loving nations and cooperate in regional peace, stability, and security. It is to emphasize that the close ties are not against any third country, and there should be no concern from any other country in the region.

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Trump Was Right About the UN. Your World Order Is Over.

The United Nations General Assembly’s 80th session was meant to be a sombre assessment of a world on fire. The Sustainable Development Goals are failing, wars rage on multiple continents and the planet itself is burning. Yet the most significant drama of the 80th session was not about any single crisis but a deeper, more fundamental schism that played out in the very language used within the hall. It seems that the UN is no longer a forum for managing a shared global order; it has become the arena where two irreconcilable visions of world order are fighting for supremacy.

On one side stands the traditional, albeit, weary mulitlateralist project. Its champions, exemplified by European leaders cautiously inching towards recognition of a Palestinian state, still operate on the premise that legitimacy is derived from international law and consensus. Theirs is a world of treaties, institutions and patient diplomacy. On the other side stands a resurgent sovereigntist assault, championed most vocally by President Donald Trump, who returned to the UN stage not to engage, but to dismantle. In a nearly hour-long speech Trump admonished the UN over what he views as its ineffectiveness, framing global cooperation not as a necessity, but as a folly. The 80th UNGA revealed that the transatlantic split is no longer a policy disagreement; it is a philosophical chasm over the soul of global governance.

The issue of Palestine serves as a perfect case study in this clash of legitimacies. The moves by a growing number of countries to recognize Palestine were calculated acts of multilateralism. They were an attempt to salvage the two-state solution, a cornerstone of UN resolutions for decades, by working within the established system. The recognition was a message: that statehood is not a prize to be won through force but a status conferred by the international community.

This logic is an anathema to the Trumpian worldview. From this perspective, such recognition is not diplomacy; it is a dangerous reward for adversaries. Trump framed it as a “reward for Hamas”, reducing a complex decades-long struggle for self-determination to a simplistic binary form of terrorism. The sovereigntist argument holds that these decisions are not the UN’s to make. Power, not consensus, is the ultimate arbiter. The conflict is no longer about land; it is about who gets to decide the rules of the game.

Nowhere is this divide more stark than on the existential threat of climate change. For the multilateralist project, the climate crisis is its ultimate validation. A warming planet is a problem that no single nation, no matter how powerful, can solve alone. It necessitates the very cooperation the UN was founded to foster.

Trump’s address systematically dismantled this premise. He pulled the rug out from under the entire premise by blasting climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetuated on the world.” This is not merely a policy difference; it is a declaration that the central problem the UN is trying to solve is a fiction. If there is no global problem, there is no need for a global solution. The institution, in this view, becomes not just ineffective, but illegitimate.

The sovereigntist vision extends to a radical critique of domestic governance, further highlighting the divide. When Trump declared that some countries “are going to hell” over their immigration policies, he was doing more than critcizing a policy. He was asserting a model where nationa borders are absolute and the internal choices of sovereign nations, particularly those of his allies, are open for public condemnation if they deviate from his ideology. This creates a world not of mutual respect and non-interference, but of perpetual, transactional pressure.

The  consequence of this great unraveling is a world adrift. The UN was built on the fragile hope that great powers, despite their rivalries, would see a greater interest in maintaining a common system. That foundation is now cracked. We’re moving towards a multi-order world, where countries selectively engage with institutions, cherry-picking rules that suit them and ignoring those that don’t. The Global South watches this spectacle with a cynical detachment, caught between a multilateral system that has often failed them and a sovereigntist alternative that promises even greater volatility.

The 80th session offered no resolutions to this core conflict. Instead, it held up a mirror. The speeches, the sideline meetings, the starkly different vocabularies – all revealed an institution that can no longer paper over its divides. The question is no longer whether the UN can solve the world’s problems, but whether the world believes in the idea of the UN itself. As the great powers turn inward, the 80th General Assembly may be remembered not for what it achieved, but as the moment the post-war order finally conceded that it’s no longer governed by a shared vision, but by a deepening and potentially unbridgeable rift.

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