oil

Today Trump brought the heads of Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and many other oil giants into the White House. He talked about something like a $100 billion investment, promised U.S. protection, and warned Russia and China to keep their hands off. 

But there is a fundamental difference between systems imposed by the state (like China), versus the U.S. In China, if the top leader says “go build,” a company might grumble in private but it will die trying. In the U.S., you can’t order private companies to sink tens of billions into a country and just hope they salute. There are shareholders, lawyers, insurers, boards, and risk people involved. The oil tycoons will happily try to join forces, but the market is their true boss. Trump has to convince the private sector that the money will be safe and that’s exactly where up to this point, the new regime in Venezuela is still failing the test.

An oil project doesn’t get approved because someone “likes the idea” or gets mandated. First, the company tries to prove the oil is really there and worth extracting (surveys, test wells, production forecasts). Then they price the whole mess: what it’ll cost to fix old equipment or build new stuff, how long it’ll take, and what could go wrong. Finance teams run scenarios like a nervous pilot checking every gauge: oil prices, delays, tax changes, accidents, expropriation. Lawyers obsess over the contract details (who owns what, who can change the rules, where disputes get decided). And here’s the institutional reality check: if courts can’t be trusted, contracts are just paper, and if nobody can say who truly controls the police, the military, and the streets, then there’s no safeguard (especially if there’s reluctance to enact more force by the US). Only if the numbers still work after all that, and the risks can be insured or controlled, does the board sign off on the “final investment decision,” which is the moment the company stops talking and starts spending real billions of dollars. So from first study to first meaningful barrels, you’re usually talking 18–36 months for a brownfield restart (in existing/old facilities), and 3–7 years for a bigger rebuild or new development (which seems to be Trump’s appetite).

These things will be discussed behind closed doors, not in the media show presented today, and we’ll learn more soon enough.

Here’s a prospective roadmap, on what could happen, depending on the type of work:

6 months

The companies already present in Venezuela will probably invest quickly in debottlenecking (“low-hanging fruits”) that requires low investment and gradually increases production.

Most companies will commit to starting an exploratory technical and commercial feasibility process to assemble a development business plan for the country. This only requires bringing in a limited technical team, so upfront costs will be very low, and any of these companies can take the risk without long-term guarantees (if they lose that money and time, who cares). Trump will guarantee security for the personnel sent to Venezuela.

Based on private agreements around buying Venezuelan assets (privatization), new exploration, asset expansion, etc., Trump will instruct the interim leadership so that PDVSA and Congress enable those actions.

The first privatizations begin to be announced (the least complex and most obvious ones), those requiring the least purchase investment and the least production-recovery investment. I think this could happen even before free elections, because as Trump said, most of these companies are used to operating in some of the most sinister places in the world.

Engineering phases move forward to restore basic services needed to operate facilities (especially electricity supply). Stabilizing the country’s electrical system is fundamental for the oil industry.

6 to 18 months

Engineering advances for larger-scale projects that can meaningfully increase production. Again, this is very low-cost for the companies, and they take relatively little risk moving these forward even if they may have to cancel later.

Gradual production increases materialize as the debottlenecking projects (“low-hanging fruit”) come online.

FID (Final Investment Decision) might happen for some small or medium-sized projects, with U.S. guarantees that the government cannot expropriate them.

18 months +

This is where it gets interesting, because a democratic transition becomes fundamental for these companies to make FIDs to buy major PDVSA assets or execute greenfield projects (new plants, new infrastructure, etc.).

Remember: most of these companies are publicly traded. They will invest in projects with the highest returns at an acceptable level of risk. If the Trump administration cannot guarantee long-term stability through a healthy democracy, it’s likely these companies won’t risk huge sums of money.

The pace will also be dictated by expectations for oil prices at the time. If prices are expected to be low, investment will move more slowly.

This entire analysis also somewhat ignores the complexity of human talent in the country. It will be uphill to find the talent needed to execute these projects and operate the plants, and that could stretch timelines even further. Venezuela once had it, but it’s now dispersed all over the world (including Venezuela).

That’s why the political transition has to move fast. If Trump wants serious capital to be involved, the reforms have to be visible and irreversible, starting with unmistakable signals that the old regime’s habits are gone. A clean first step that could be an important signal: free every political prisoner. Not a symbolic handful. All of them. 

Big projects don’t live on election cycles, they live on 10–20-year timelines for ROI. If investors think the whole arrangement can be shaken up after the 2028 election (due to the Democrats retaining the White House), they’ll hesitate, or they’ll demand terms so protective that Venezuela’s interim regime won’t like them.

Venezuela’s economic restart and Venezuela’s political liberation are the same project. You don’t get one without the other. If the transition wants oil money to actually land it has to build the boring stuff that makes capitalism work: credible courts, enforceable contracts, and proof that the control of violence is achieved.

United States President Donald Trump has called on oil executives to rush back into Venezuela as the White House looks to quickly secure $100bn in investments to revive the country’s ability to fully tap into its expansive reserves of petroleum.

Trump, as he opened the meeting with oil industry executives on Friday, sought to assure them that they need not be sceptical of quickly investing in and, in some cases, returning to the South American country with a history of state asset seizures as well as ongoing US sanctions and the current political uncertainty.

“You have total safety,” Trump told the executives. “You’re dealing with us directly and not dealing with Venezuela at all. We don’t want you to deal with Venezuela.”

Trump added: “Our giant oil companies will be spending at least $100bn of their money, not the government’s money. They don’t need government money. But they need government protection.”

Trump welcomed the oil executives to the White House after US forces earlier on Friday seized their fifth tanker over the past month that has been linked to Venezuelan oil. The action reflected the determination of the US to fully control the exporting, refining and production of Venezuelan petroleum, a sign of the Trump administration’s plans for ongoing involvement in the sector as it seeks commitments from private companies.

“At least 100 Billion Dollars will be invested by BIG OIL, all of whom I will be meeting with today at The White House,” Trump said on Friday in a predawn social media post.

The White House said it invited oil executives from 17 companies, including Chevron, which still operates in Venezuela, as well as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which both had oil projects in the country that were lost as part of a 2007 nationalisation of private businesses under former President Nicolas Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez.

“If we look at the commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela, today it’s un-investable,” said Darren Woods, ExxonMobil CEO. “And so significant changes have to be made to those commercial frameworks, the legal system, there has to be durable investment protections and there has to be change to the hydrocarbon laws in the country.”

Benjamin Radd, a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations, told Al Jazeera that he had “noted the hesitation and less-than-full-throated enthusiasm for re-entering the Venezuelan market”, citing Woods, who told the gathering that the company had its assets there seized twice already.

“The bottom line is that until Trump can outline and provide assurances of a plan towards political stability, it will continue to be a risky endeavour for these oil companies to re-engage Venezuela. And what is there is a regime change in Iran in the days or weeks or months to come, and all of a sudden that re-emerges as a place where Western oil companies can do business? Even though the reserves don’t equal what Venezuela has, the risk is far less, and the infrastructure is more sound,” Radd said.

Other companies invited included Halliburton, Valero, Marathon, Shell, Singapore-based Trafigura, Italy-based Eni and Spain-based Repsol, as well as a vast swath of domestic and international companies with interests ranging from construction to the commodity markets.

Wait and see

Large US oil companies have so far largely refrained from affirming investments in Venezuela, as contracts and guarantees need to be in place. Trump has suggested that the US would help to backstop any investments.

Venezuela’s oil production has slumped below one million barrels per day (bpd). Part of Trump’s challenge to turn that around will be to convince oil companies that his administration has a stable relationship with Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez, as well as protections for companies entering the market.

While Rodriguez has publicly denounced Trump and the abduction and ouster of Maduro, the US president has said that to date, Venezuela’s interim leader has been cooperating behind the scenes with his administration.

Most companies are in a wait-and-see mode as they await terms from the Venezuelans, stability and wait to find out how much the US government will actually help, said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Those like Chevron that are already in there are in a better position to increase investments as they “already have sunk costs”, Ziemba pointed out.

Ziemba said she expects a partial ramp-up in the first half of this year as the volumes that were going to China – Venezuelan oil’s largest buyer – are redirected and sold via the US. “But long-term investments will be slow,” she said as companies wait to find out about US commitments and Venezuelan terms.

Tyson Slocum, director of the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen’s energy programme, criticised the gathering and called the US military’s removal of Maduro “violent imperialism”. Slocum added that Trump’s goal appears to be to “hand billionaires control over Venezuela’s oil”.

So far, the US government has not said how the revenue from the sale of Venezuelan oil will be shared and what percentage of the sales would be given to Caracas.

Ziemba said she was worried that “if funds do not go to Venezuela for basic goods, among other local needs, there will be instability that will deepen the country’s economic crisis“.

In the news conference on Friday, Trump said the US had a formula for distributing payments. UCLA’s Radd said that “if the US can or will guarantee security and stability, it makes sense for it to expect a return on investment in that sense. But then this makes it sound more like a mafia-style ‘racket’ than a government-led operation”, he told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, the US and Venezuelan governments said on Friday they were exploring the possibility of restoring diplomatic relations between the two countries, and a delegation from the Trump administration arrived in the South American nation on Friday.

US President Donald Trump has asked for at least $100bn (£75bn) in oil industry spending for Venezuela, but received a lukewarm response at the White House as one executive warned the South American country was currently “un-investable”.

Bosses of the biggest US oil firms who attended the meeting acknowledged that Venezuela, sitting on vast energy reserves, represented an enticing opportunity.

But they said significant changes would be needed to make Venezuela an attractive investment. No major financial commitments were immediately forthcoming.

Trump has said he will unleash the South American nation’s oil after US forces seized its leader Nicolas Maduro in a 3 January raid on its capital.

“One of the things the United States gets out of this will be even lower energy prices,” Trump said in Friday’s meeting in the White House.

But the oil bosses present expressed caution.

Exxon’s chief executive Darren Woods said: “We have had our assets seized there twice and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we’ve historically seen and what is currently the state.”

“Today it’s uninvestable.”

Venezuela has had a complicated relationship with international oil firms since oil was discovered in its territory more than 100 years ago.

Chevron is the last remaining major American oil firm still operating in the country.

A handful of companies from other countries, including Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Eni, both of which were represented at the White House meeting, are also active.

Trump said his administration would decide which firms would be allowed to operate.

“You’re dealing with us directly. You’re not dealing with Venezuela at all. We don’t want you to deal with Venezuela,” he said.

The White House has said it is working to “selectively” roll back US sanctions that have restricted sales of Venezuelan oil.

Officials say they have been coordinating with interim authorities in the country, which is currently led by Maduro’s former second-in-command, Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez.

But they have also made clear they intend to exert control over the sales, as a way to maintain leverage over Rodríguez’s government.

The US this week has seized several oil tankers carrying sanctioned crude. American officials have said they are working to set up a sales process, which would deposit money raised into US-controlled accounts.

“We are open for business,” Trump said.

Venezuela’s oil production has been hit in recent decades by disinvestment and mismanagement – as well as US sanctions. At roughly one million barrels per day, the country accounts for less than 1% of global supply.

Chevron, which accounts for about a fifth of the country’s output, said it expected to bolster its production, building on its current presence, while Exxon said it was working to send in a technical team to assess the situation in the coming weeks.

Repsol, which currently boasts output of about 45,000 barrels per day, said it saw a path to triple its production in Venezuela over the next few years under the right conditions.

Executives at other firms also said Trump’s promises of change would encourage investment and they were hoping to seize the moment.

“We are ready to go to Venezuela,” said Bill Armstrong, who leads an independent oil and gas driller. “In real estate terms, it is prime real estate.”

But analysts say meaningfully increasing production would take significant effort.

“They are being as polite as humanly possible, and being as supportive as they can, without committing actual dollars,” said David Goldwyn, president of the energy consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategies and former US state department special envoy for international energy affairs.

Exxon and Shell are “not going to invest single-digit billions of dollars, much less tens of billions of dollars”, without physical security, legal certainty and a competitive fiscal framework, Goldwyn said.

“It’s not really welcome from an industry point of view,” he said. “The conditions are just not right.”

While smaller companies might be more eager to jump in and help boost Venezuela’s oil production over the next year, he said those investments would likely hover in the $50m range – far from the “fantastical” $100bn figure that Trump has floated.

Rystad Energy estimates it would take $8bn to $9bn in new investments per year for production to triple by 2040.

Trump’s suggested $100bn of investment into Venezuela could have a major impact – if it were to materialise, said the firm’s chief economist, Claudio Galimberti.

He said companies would only be likely to invest on that scale with subsidies – and political stability.

“It’s going to be difficult to see big commitments before we have a fully stabilised political situation and that is anybody’s guess when that happens,” he said.

Additional reporting by Danielle Kaye

Jan. 9 (UPI) — President Donald Trump and executives for several U.S. oil and gas companies discussed a potential $100 billion investment in Venezuela’s energy sector Friday after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro‘s capture.

Trump met with executives from Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and other U.S. oil and gas firms and encouraged them to invest $100 billion to refine and sell seized Venezuelan oil, CBS News reported.

The president offered to guarantee the security of oil and gas companies if they returned to Venezuela, which decades ago seized infrastructure owned and built by U.S. firms when former President Hugo Chavez nationalized the country’s oil and gas industry.

With the backing of the United States and security assurances, Trump said the oil and gas companies would “get their money back and make a very nice return,” as reported by CNBC.

He offered to make a deal with the oil and gas companies as soon as Friday and said it would help to lower energy costs for U.S. consumers.

Venezuela has an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven reserves of crude oil, which equals about 17% of the world’s supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

That amount is the most anywhere, but Venezuela’s nationalization of its oil and gas industry led to years of neglect and greatly reduced its daily output from 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1990s to about 800,000 per day now, according to the Kpler energy consulting firm.

For Venezuela to meet a 3 million barrels-per-day target, energy firms would have to invest more than $180 billion over the next 14 years, analysts with Rystad Energy said.

Such an investment level has U.S. oil and gas executives publicly expressing skepticism, although they do acknowledge the president’s proposal is an enticing offer.

Trump said a decision on the matter should be reached very soon, if not on Friday.

WASHINGTON — President Trump is meeting with oil executives at the White House Friday in hopes of securing $100 billion in investments to revive Venezuela’s ability to fully tap into its expansive reserves of petroleum — a plan that rides on their comfort in making commitments in a country plagued by instability, inflation and uncertainty.

Since the U.S. military raid to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Saturday, Trump has quickly pivoted to portraying the move as a newfound economic opportunity for the U.S., seizing tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, saying the U.S. is taking over the sales of 30 million to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned Venezuelan oil and will be controlling sales worldwide indefinitely.

On Friday, U.S. forces seized their fifth tanker over the past month that has been linked to Venezuelan oil. The action reflected the determination of the U.S. to fully control the exporting, refining and production of Venezuelan petroleum, a sign of the Trump administration’s plans for ongoing involvement in the sector as it seeks commitments from private companies.

It’s all part of a broader push by Trump to keep gasoline prices low. At a time when many Americans are concerned about affordability, the incursion in Venezuela melds Trump’s assertive use of presidential powers with an optical spectacle meant to convince Americans that he can bring down energy prices.

The meeting, set for 2:30 p.m. EST, is currently set to occur behind closed doors, according to the president’s daily schedule. “At least 100 Billion Dollars will be invested by BIG OIL, all of whom I will be meeting with today at The White House,” Trump said Friday in a pre-dawn social media post.

Trump is set to meet with executives from 17 oil companies, according to the White House. Among the companies attending are Chevron, which still operates in Venezuela, and ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which both had oil projects in the country that were lost as part of a 2007 nationalization of private businesses under Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez.

The president is meeting with a wide swath of domestic and international companies with interests ranging from construction to the commodity markets. Other companies slated to be at the meeting include Halliburton, Valero, Marathon, Shell, Singapore-based Trafigura, Italy-based Eni and Spain-based Repsol.

Large U.S. oil companies have so far largely refrained from affirming investments in Venezuela as contracts and guarantees need to be in place. Trump has suggested on social media that America would help to backstop any investments.

Venezuela’s oil production has slumped below one million barrels a day. Part of Trump’s challenge to turn that around will be to convince oil companies that his administration has a stable relationship with Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez, as well as protections for companies entering the market.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum are slated to attend the oil executives meeting, according to the White House.

Boak writes for the Associated Press.

US forces have seized another tanker in the Caribbean Sea, officials say, as the Trump administration continues its efforts to control exports of Venezuelan oil.

The tanker, the Olina, is on multiple countries’ sanctions lists and the fifth vessel to be seized by the US in recent weeks.

The US is using the seizures to pressure Venezuela’s interim government and remove the so-called dark fleet of tankers from service. Officials say this fleet consists of more than 1,000 vessels that transport sanctioned and illicit oil.

“Once again, our joint interagency forces sent a clear message this morning: ‘there is no safe haven for criminals,'” said the US military’s Southern Command on Friday.

The vessel reportedly left Venezuelan waters late on Sunday, after the US seized President Nicolás Maduro in an early morning raid.

Officials said Friday’s operation was carried out before dawn by Marines and sailors in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, and that it was seized after it “departed Venezuela attempting to evade US forces”.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem wrote on X that it was “another ‘ghost fleet’ tanker ship suspected of carrying embargoed oil”.

Noem also shared a video appearing to show troops dropping onto a ship from a helicopter, and described the operation as “safe” and “effective”.

Maritime risk company Vanguard Tech said the vessel was attempting to break through the US naval blockade in the Caribbean. It had been sailing under a false flag registered to Timor-Leste, according to the International Maritime Organization.

Vanguard Tech added that the vessel’s location tracker was last active 52 days ago, northeast of Curacao, and that “the seizure follows a prolonged pursuit of tankers linked to sanctioned Venezuelan oil shipments in the region”.

The US had sanctioned the Olina last January, then named Minerva M, accusing it of helping finance Russia’s war in Ukraine by moving Russian oil to foreign markets.

Earlier this week, the US said it seized two other tankers linked to Venezuelan oil exports in “back-to-back” operations in the North Atlantic and Caribbean.

One of them was the Russian-flagged Marinera seized with the help of the UK Royal Navy, which gave logistical support by air and sea.

The Marinera is allegedly part of shadow fleet carrying oil for Venezuela, Russia and Iran, breaking US sanctions. US officials said that Marinera was falsely flying the flag of Guyana last month, which made it stateless.

US authorities alleged the second tanker – the M/T Sophia – was “conducting illicit activities”.

Experts have told BBC Verify that under UN international maritime law, authroties can board a stateless vessel.

President Donald Trump says Venezuela – which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves – “will be turning over” up to 50 million barrels of oil worth some $2.8bn (£2.1bn) to the US.

The oil, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would be sold “in the marketplace at market rates” and that the US would control how the proceeds were dispersed “in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people”.

On Saturday, United States military forces carried out a dramatic strike in Venezuela that resulted in the capture and forcible removal of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They were flown to New York and are now in federal custody. Maduro appeared in federal court on drug and weapons charges and pleaded not guilty. Several governments, international legal experts and United Nations officials have described the military operation as an illegal “kidnapping” and a breach of international law. The UN secretary-general warned that it sets a “dangerous precedent”, undermining foundational norms of sovereignty under the UN Charter.

Yet, as Washington justifies its operation primarily with rhetoric about oil and narcotics, a deeper inspection reveals another dynamic: This was first and foremost an ideological battle, shaped by domestic political incentives in the US – in particular the strategic influence of Florida’s electorate and its political elite.

Oil is not the prime motive

The mainstream narrative frames Venezuela’s enormous oil reserves – officially among the largest proven in the world at roughly 298 billion to 303 billion barrels – as the core strategic prize. But a closer, evidence-based analysis shows the immediate economic rationale to be weak.

US crude imports from Venezuela, once significant, have dwindled to about 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of 2024, representing less than 4 percent of US crude imports. By contrast, imports from Canada dominate, accounting for roughly 60 to 63 percent of US crude import needs, and US production of light crude has risen sharply, reducing dependence on foreign sources. This shift undermines claims that Venezuelan oil alone is a strategic imperative.

Why does Venezuelan crude matter at all? The answer lies in its composition. Venezuelan oil is heavy and sour, the type that many US Gulf Coast refineries were designed to process. This, however, reflects refinery configuration rather than any compelling immediate strategic case. Furthermore, Venezuelan oil infrastructure has deteriorated over years of underinvestment with output falling from about 3.5 million bpd to roughly 1 million bpd by 2025, and a meaningful revival would require many years of sustained and consistent investment. Markets reacted only modestly to the capture of Maduro with global oil prices remaining relatively stable, suggesting that oil was not the main driver of the operation.

Not drugs either: Pretext vs reality

US officials have cited drug trafficking and “narcoterrorism” as part of the justification for the intervention. Maduro and other senior Venezuelan officials are indicted in the US on charges linked to alleged cocaine trafficking, and these accusations have been reiterated in court. However, research by international agencies and independent analysts suggests that, while Venezuelan territory is used as a transit route, it is not a major source of the drugs entering the US, which are overwhelmingly produced and trafficked through Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This gap between the scale of the drug trade and the rationale invoked has led many analysts to view the narcotics argument as a pretext rather than a primary driver of the operation.

Florida, ideology and domestic political incentives

A more persuasive rationale emerges when the domestic political incentives shaping US foreign policy are examined, particularly the role of Florida’s electorate and elite networks. With 31 electoral votes, Florida remains a pivotal state in presidential elections, where narrow margins mean even modest shifts among key constituencies can determine national outcomes.

This political reality is reinforced by Florida’s large and politically mobilised Latino communities. Cuban American voters have long prioritised anti-communist foreign policy positions while Venezuelan American communities, many of whom settled in the state over the past decade, have expressed strong opposition to authoritarian leftist governance in Caracas. Political scientists note that these constituencies constitute a significant voting bloc in closely contested elections, giving political elites strong incentives to adopt hardline positions against leftist regimes that resonate with these voters.

At the centre of this dynamic stands Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state and a Florida native whose political biography is deeply rooted in opposition to leftist governments in Latin America. Rubio’s family fled communist Cuba, and he has consistently championed confrontational policies towards socialist and authoritarian regimes in the region. Reports suggest that, during negotiations, Maduro offered concessions on oil and economic matters that could have been commercially beneficial, but advisers aligned with Florida’s political interests reportedly pushed for a harder line, prioritising ideological confrontation over economic pragmatism.

Florida’s political ecosystem also includes influential donor networks that have historically supported hawkish foreign policy positions, including well-organised pro-Israel constituencies with leverage at state and national levels. In recent months, high-profile visits by Israeli leaders to Florida and sustained engagement with US political figures have reinforced ideological alignments that frame regimes perceived as hostile to Israel or aligned with its adversaries as challenges requiring decisive responses. The convergence of electoral incentives, ideological commitments and elite networks helps explain why US policy towards Venezuela has been shaped as much by domestic political drivers as by external strategic interests.

Lessons for the Middle East

The implications for Middle Eastern actors are profound.

First, international law appears weakened. The US capture of a sitting head of state without multilateral authorisation underscores a willingness to sidestep international legal norms when domestic political imperatives are prioritised. The ineffectiveness UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force absent Security Council approval or clear self-defence appears to have been discounted, eliciting global concern.

Second, the Middle East’s strategic relevance persists, albeit in an evolving context. While global energy markets are less dependent on Middle Eastern oil than in prior decades, other factors – capital flows, counterterrorism cooperation, strategic geography and enduring security partnerships – maintain the region’s importance. Intensifying US-China competition and Washington’s concern over closer China-Middle East ties will likely continue to anchor US engagement in the region. Israel, for its part, is expected to sustain robust lobbying efforts in Washington and European capitals to preserve its strategic relationships.

Yet the Venezuela episode illustrates that alliances predicated chiefly on energy security can be fragile and ideological and domestic political drivers can abruptly reshape foreign policy priorities. Middle Eastern states must, therefore, pursue a calibrated diplomatic strategy: engaging the US where interests converge while hedging against abrupt shifts driven by internal political calculations.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

The United States government has said it aims to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely.

“We need to have that leverage and that control of those oil sales to drive the changes that simply must happen in Venezuela,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday.

His comments come days after US forces abducted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. Since then, the administration of US President Donald Trump has announced a deal under which Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US to sell.

That comes against a backdrop of demands that Venezuelan government officials open up access to US oil companies or risk further military action.

On Friday, executives from several major oil companies, including ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron, are slated to meet with the president to discuss potential investments in Venezuela.

Can the US control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely?

“The US federal government can absolutely intervene, make demands, capture what it wants, and redirect those barrels accordingly. I don’t know of anything that would meaningfully interfere with the federal government if that’s what it decided to do,” Jeff Krimmel, founder of Krimmel Strategy Group, a Houston, Texas-based energy consulting firm, told Al Jazeera.

There are, however, geopolitical hurdles. The US has less leverage than it did more than two decades ago when the US military and its allies entered Iraq, another oil-rich country. Today, other superpowers could stand in the way in ways they did not in 2003.

“When we went into Iraq, we were living in a unipolar moment as the world’s only great power. That era is over. China is now a great power, and most experts consider it a peer competitor. That means it has ways to hurt the US economy and to push back militarily, including through proxy conflicts, if it chooses to oppose such actions,” Anthony Orlando, professor of finance and law at California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, told Al Jazeera.

China is the largest purchaser of Venezuelan crude, although it only imports about 4 percent of its oil from the South American nation.

“It’s a question of whether they want to draw a line in the sand with the United States and say, ‘You can’t do this, because if we allow it, you’ll keep pushing further,’” Orlando said.

“If you’re a minor power like Venezuela, not China or Russia, you’re a country vulnerable to US intervention. That creates an incentive to align more closely with China or Russia to prevent it from happening, and that’s not a good outcome for the United States,” Orlando continued.

In the days since Maduro’s abduction, members of the Trump administration have also renewed calls to take over Greenland.

How does this compare with Iraq?

The US intervention in Venezuela has been compared to its involvement in Iraq, which began under the administration of former President George W Bush in 2003. At the time, Iraq had the second-largest oil reserves in the world, with 112 billion barrels.

However, production was limited. Prior to the invasion, Iraq produced 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), rising to 4.5 million bpd by 2018.

While the Iraqi government retained ownership of oil, US companies were often given no-bid contracts to operate there, including ExxonMobil and BP, and the majority of sales went to Asian and European markets.

In 2021, Iraq’s then-President Barham Salih claimed that an estimated $150bn in money stolen through corrupt deals had been “smuggled out of Iraq” since the 2003 US-led invasion.

Unlike during the Bush administration and its aims for Iraq’s oil, the Trump administration has been explicit about the role of oil in its attack on Venezuela.

“The difference between Iraq and this is that [Bush] didn’t keep the oil. We’re going to keep the oil,” Trump said in a conversation with MS Now anchor Joe Scarborough.

Comparatively, in 2002, prior to the US invasion, then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld asserted that the operation to take control of post-war reconstruction had “literally nothing to do with oil”.

“When the Bush administration went into Iraq, they claimed it wasn’t about that, even though there was substantial evidence it was a factor. This time it’s more explicit, so it’s clear it will impact oil markets. [But] one lesson from the Iraq war is that it’s easier said than done,” Orlando, the professor, told Al Jazeera.

Will this benefit oil companies?

Analysts argue that investments in Venezuela might not actually benefit oil companies due to rising economic uncertainty, the need for major infrastructure improvements, and the fact that large companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron already have capital programmes planned for the remainder of the decade.

“Either [the companies] will have to take on more debt or issue more equity to raise the capital needed, or they’ll have to divert capital expenditures from other regions into Venezuela. In either scenario, I expect substantial shareholder pushback,” Krimmel, the energy consultant, said.

Increased production will also require infrastructure improvements. Venezuelan oil is dense, which makes it more difficult and expensive to extract compared to oil from Iraq or the US.

Venezuelan oil is often blended with lighter grades from the US. It is comparable in density to Canadian oil, which, despite tensions between Ottawa and Washington, comes from a US ally with more modern extraction infrastructure.

“I don’t think Canada’s going to be too happy about all this,” Orlando said.

However, Chevron, the only US company currently operating in Venezuela, is seeking authorisation from Washington to expand its licence to operate in the country after the US placed restrictions on it last year, the Reuters news agency reported on Thursday, citing unnamed sources.

The US role in energy, particularly oil and gas, has surged in recent years amid the rise of fracking technology. The US is now the largest producer of oil in the world. But recent cuts to alternative energy programmes and increasing energy demands from the artificial intelligence industry have led Republicans to double down on expanding the oil and gas sector.

“There is an oil supply surplus. Even if we were in a supply deficit right now, military action in Venezuela wouldn’t unlock incremental barrels quickly. So even if you were trying to solve a short-term supply deficit, which, to be clear, we do not have, Venezuela wouldn’t be an answer because it would take too long and be too expensive to ramp production up,” Krimmel added.

While Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, the OPEC member represents only 1 percent of global oil output.

Currently, Chevron is the only US company operating in Venezuela. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips operated in Venezuela before Hugo Chavez nationalised the oil sector in 2007, leading to a downturn in production over years of disinvestment and poorly run facilities. In the 1990s, Venezuela produced as much as 3.5 million bpd. That has since fallen due to limited investment, with production averaging 1.1 million bpd last year.

“Venezuela’s infrastructure has deteriorated under both the Chavez and Maduro regimes. While they are extracting oil, returning to production levels from 10 or 20 years ago would require significant investment,” Orlando said.

The crew of the runaway Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera released the first video showing a U.S. Coast Guard Legend class cutter in close pursuit. The video was posted online Tuesday by the Russian RT news outlet as the military buildup in England continues, potentially for a future U.S. boarding of the vessel.

Until recently known as the Bella-1 before it was re-registered and the crew painted a Russian flag on it, the Marinera is part of a so-called shadow fleet. These vessels are transporting oil for Russia, Iran and Venezuela in violation of sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries. The Coast Guard attempted to board the ship, which never made it to port in Venezuela and is empty, on Dec. 20. However, the crew refused to allow it. As we noted yesterday, CBS News reported that the U.S. is drawing up plans to interdict the boat. You can catch up to our most recent coverage of the pursuit for this ship in our story here.

The video posted by RT shows the cutter following the Marinera on a roughly parallel course in choppy seas in the North Atlantic. It is unclear from the video which cutter is following the Marinera. The oil tanker is reportedly located between Iceland and Scotland.

The 418-foot-long Legend class cutters often perform interdictions and can accommodate two MH-65 Dolphin helicopters, or one MH-65 or MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter and two vertically launched unmanned aerial vehicles. A Coast Guard official told us that the service is phasing out its Insitu ScanEagle drones in favor of Shield AI V-BAT drones.

It is unclear from the video if any aircraft are embarked.

The cutters are armed with a Mk. 110 57 mm deck gun; a Phalanx 20 mm close-in weapon system (CWIS), a Mk. 53 decoy launching system (NULKA); and four M2 .50-caliber machine guns.

Regardless of how many aviation assets it carries or how it is armed, a lone cutter in the high seas has not proven adequate to board the Marinera. Concerns about the effort have been exacerbated by Venezuelan officials having discussed “the placement of armed military personnel on tankers — disguising them as civilians for defense purposes — as well as portable Soviet-era air defense systems,” CBS reported. That’s likely why the U.S. is planning a much larger and far more capable and well defended force to do so.

In December, when the U.S. boarded the M/T Skipper, another sanctioned Russian oil tanker, law enforcement and military personnel were fast-roped from a Navy MH-65 Seahawk embarked aboard the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, not too far from Venezuela. You can see that boarding in the following video.

Today, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Homeland Security Investigations, and the United States Coast Guard, with support from the Department of War, executed a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran. For multiple… pic.twitter.com/dNr0oAGl5x

— Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) December 10, 2025

As word has spread of a possible U.S. boarding, Russian milbloggers say the Marinera may be headed for the Baltic Sea, “where it will be met and escorted by the Russian fleet, unless the Americans or British manage to board the Marinera beforehand.”

Russian milblogger Military Informant says the tanker Marinera will likely be met and escorted by the Russian fleet once it enters the Baltic Sea. The vessel is currently being pursued by the US in the North Atlantic. pic.twitter.com/occZFLsH8n

— Preston Stewart (@prestonstew_) January 6, 2026

Meanwhile, as the Legend class cutter follows the Marinera on the water, the U.S. and allies continue their aerial surveillance efforts.

According to flight tracking data, U.K. Typhoon fighters, accompanied by KC-2 aerial refueling tankers, flew over the North Atlantic in the area where the tanker was last seen.

The Typhoons join U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol jets, and Irish Air Corps C-295W maritime search aircraft in tracking the Marinera.

Beyond the ongoing flights, the U.S. is continuing to add aviation assets to the U.K. that could take part in any effort to track and board the Marinera. On Tuesday, a U.S. Air Force U-2 Dragon Lady high altitude surveillance jet was deployed to RAF Fairford, according to online flight tracking data. It isn’t clear if this high-flying asset is there for a potential raiding operation or other taskings. U-2s fly out of RAF Fairford regularly.

10:30~ DRAGON 86 USAF U-2/s Dragon Lady
Inbound RAF Fairford from Beale AFB.
Maintaining FL600 and not yet requested descent.
Calling “DRAGON OPS” uhf 33#.## in the red #DRAGON86 (no mode-s) pic.twitter.com/qOhoHoZ0cR

— Andy (@Andyyyyrrrr) January 6, 2026

The U-2 is the latest U.S. aircraft to be deployed to the U.K. As we noted yesterday, C-17 Globemaster III cargo jets recently arrived at RAF Fairford from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, home of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR) Night Stalkers. Local spotters say the cargo jets delivered Night Stalkers’ highly modified MH-47 Chinooks and MH-60M Black Hawks; however, no visual evidence has emerged to confirm that. Further, one of the U.S. Air Force’s shadowy CASA CN-235 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance planes was also deployed to RAF Fairford, in addition to at least two AC-130J Ghostrider gunships that just arrived at RAF Mildenhall over the weekend.

A future boarding effort is not the only reason these aircraft may have been deployed to England, which you can read about in our previous report. However, those possibilities are looking less probable as the pursuit of the Marinera continues.

Meanwhile, Moscow is watching all this with a wary eye.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said it was “monitoring with concern the anomalous situation surrounding the Russian oil tanker Marinera,” NBC News reported.

“For several days now, Marinera has been followed by a U.S. Coast Guard ship, despite the fact that the vessel is located approximately 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) from the U.S. coastline,” the statement added.

“At present, the vessel is navigating international waters of the North Atlantic under the state flag of the Russian Federation and in full compliance with international maritime law,” the Foreign Ministry continued. “At the same time, for reasons that remain unclear to us, the Russian vessel is receiving heightened attention from U.S. and NATO military forces that is clearly disproportionate to its peaceful status. We expect that Western countries, which consistently declare their commitment to freedom of navigation on the high seas, will begin by adhering to this principle in their own actions.”

‘We are monitoring the abnormal situation around the Russian tanker Marinera with concern’ — Russian MFA tells RT

Despite being 4,000 km from US shores, the civilian vessel is shadowed for days by US and NATO assets

Moscow stresses freedom of navigation on the high seas https://t.co/sMgnTIt8Y8 pic.twitter.com/TRe2W76yBJ

— RT (@RT_com) January 6, 2026

Despite any concerns, Russia has yet to deploy ships or aircraft to support the Marinera. Given its location, it will be days before the ship could reach the Baltic. There, a more robust Russian presence not too far from its shores could complicate any interdiction efforts.

For the moment, the oil tanker is making its way toward Russia unimpeded and it remains unknown if President Donald Trump will give the order to board it. Whether that happens is something we will be following closely.

Update: 8:39 PM Eastern –

The Russians have sent a submarine and other naval assets to escort the Marinera, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday night.

Update: 1/7/2026

U.S. forces have now boarded and secured the Marinera. You can find our continuing courage here.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

U.S. forces have secured the runaway Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera, a U.S. official has confirmed to TWZ. Elements of the U.S. Army’s 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment and other American aviation assets had previously deployed to the United Kingdom ahead of an apparent effort to board the ship. Readers can get caught up on the pursuit with our latest coverage here.

Personnel from the U.S. military and the U.S. Coast Guard carried out the boarding operation, according to reports from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. Russian news outlet RT had earlier released imagery said to have been taken from the deck of the Marinera showing an MH-6 Little Bird helicopter, a type operated by the 160th SOAR, approaching the ship.

In the past several hours, open source flight tracking had also shown a large number of aircraft from bases in the United Kingdom heading north toward where the ship is located.

UPDATE 1200Z 07/JAN/2026 – We’ve confirmed a few of the earlier RAF flights are involved in other routine operations, but we now have a confirmed stream of US support aircraft, ISTAR and other platforms heading for the UK-Iceland gap, likely staging for the tanker Op!#BELLA1… https://t.co/knpNOL2oNK pic.twitter.com/wX2dBUluUQ

— DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 (@DefenceGeek) January 7, 2026

Ship tracking data available online had also shown the Marinera, which had been shadowed by a wide range of aviation assets and a U.S. Coast Guard cutter for weeks now, making a sharp turn to the south in the direction of the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Marinera (IMO 9230880) formally Bella 1 made a sudden southbound turn at 11:26 UTC near 60.9386N, 16.37014W, slowing from ~9 kn to ~8 kn.

US special operations aircraft are heading north pic.twitter.com/u44FqyfjHG

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) January 7, 2026

Known until recently as the Bella-1 before it was re-registered and the crew painted a Russian flag on it, the Marinera is part of a so-called shadow fleet. These vessels are accused of transporting oil for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela in violation of sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries. On December 20, the Coast Guard had previously attempted to board the ship, which is not carrying any oil at present, as it headed toward Venezuela. However, the crew refused to allow it, and the ship began sailing back toward Europe. Reports earlier this week said that new U.S. plans to interdict the boat had subsequently been drawn up, tied to the aforementioned deployment of special operations forces and other assets to the United Kingdom.

The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that the Russian military had sent a submarine and other naval assets to escort the Marinera. Reuters has reported that Russian Navy vessels were in the vicinity when the boarding operation occurred.

Where the Marinera may now be headed and what its ultimate fate may be remains to be seen.

TWZ will continue to update this story as it develops.

Update: 9:14 AM Eastern –

U.S. European Command released a statement about the seizure on X.

It has been pointed out that Little Birds are not capable of being refueled in flight and likely would not have had the range to reach the tanker from bases on land in the region. It is more likely that any MH-6s involved in this operation launched from a ship closer by. The 160th SOAR is known to train to operate its Little Birds from Coast Guard cutters. Night Stalker helicopters also have a long history of flying from U.S. Navy ships, including recently during the operation to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro.

We have reached out to the Pentagon and U.S. Coast Guard for more details and will update this story with any pertinent information provided.

Update: 9:32 AM Eastern –

The U.K. Defense Ministry (MoD) provided us with a statement about its aircraft observed over the North Atlantic.

“Quick Reaction Alert Typhoon fighter aircraft were launched on 6 Jan from RAF Lossiemouth…after unidentified aircraft were tracked flying towards UK airspace. The aircraft remained outside of our area of interest (UK FIR) and no intercept took place. The launch of RAF QRA aircraft from RAF Lossiemouth and supporting AAR Voyager from RAF Brize Norton was not associated with any form of maritime surveillance operations.”

Update: 9:36 AM Eastern –

War Secretary Pete Hegseth weighed in on the seizure, saying that “the blockade of sanctioned and illicit Venezuelan oil remains in FULL EFFECT – anywhere in the world.” The Marinera, however, never arrived in port and was not carrying any fuel.

Meanwhile, as the seizure of the Marinera was taking place, the U.S. also boarded another sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean, according to U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM).

“In a pre-dawn action this morning, the Department of War, in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark fleet motor tanker without incident,” SOUTHCOM announced on X. “The interdicted vessel, M/T Sophia, was operating in international waters and conducting illicit activities in the Caribbean Sea. The U.S. Coast Guard is escorting M/T Sophia to the U.S. for final disposition. Through Operation Southern Spear, the Department of War is unwavering in its mission to crush illicit activity in the Western Hemisphere. We will defend our Homeland and restore security and strength across the Americas.”

In a pre-dawn action this morning, the Department of War, in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark fleet motor tanker without incident.

The interdicted vessel, M/T Sophia, was operating in international waters and… pic.twitter.com/JQm9gHprPk

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) January 7, 2026

Officials in the U.K. would likely have had to sign off on this operation, The Times reported.

The British government would have given the green light for the American mission to seize a Venezuela-linked oil tanker, a senior UK military source tells @thetimes https://t.co/RNMph9P1zz

— Larisa Brown (@larisamlbrown) January 7, 2026

British aviation journalist Gareth Jennings notes that the Little Birds can be equipped with a 62-gallon auxiliary fuel tank, giving them an operating radius of about 670 kilometers (about 416 miles).

They can be equipped with a 62 US gallon auxiliary Goliath fuel tank to double the capacity of the 62 US gallon main fuel tank. Would give an approx 670 km operating radius.

— Gareth Jennings (@GarethJennings3) January 7, 2026

There are several ways Little Birds can take part in a mission like this, as our editor-in-chief Tyler Rogoway notes.

Update: 9:57 AM Eastern –

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem also released a statement, confirming that the Coast Guard Legend class cutter trailing the Marinera we wrote about yesterday was the Munro.

“One of these tankers, Motor Tanker Bella I, has been trying to evade the Coast Guard for weeks, even changing its flag and painting a new name on the hull while being pursued, in a desperate and failed attempt to escape justice,” Noem stated on X. “The heroic crew of the USCGC Munro pursued this vessel across the high seas and through treacherous storms— keeping diligent watch, and protecting our country with the determination and patriotism that make Americans proud.  These brave men and women deserve our nation’s thanks for their selfless devotion to duty.”

In two predawn operations today, the Coast Guard conducted back-to-back meticulously coordinated boarding of two “ghost fleet”  tanker ships— one in the North Atlantic Sea and one in international waters near the Caribbean.  Both vessels —the Motor Tanker Bella I and the Motor… pic.twitter.com/EZlHEtcufX

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@Sec_Noem) January 7, 2026

Update: 10:08 AM Eastern –

The Russian Ministry of Transport stated that the U.S boarding operation against the Marinera violated international law.

“In accordance with the norms of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, a regime of freedom of navigation operates in the waters of the high seas, and no state has the right to use force against ships properly registered in the jurisdictions of other states,” the message said.

“According to the department, the ship received a temporary permit to sail under the Russian state flag on December 24th,” the official Russian RIA Novosti media outlet reported on Telegram. The vessel was boarded at 3 p.m. local time (7 a.m. Eastern).

The first official statement from the Russian government following the seizure of Russia-flagged MARINERA / BELLA-1 tanker by the United States.

Russian Ministry of Transport refers to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea:

“In accordance with the provisions of the 1982 UN… https://t.co/CdF0A6Lsfg pic.twitter.com/OlCwxLolzQ

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) January 7, 2026

Update: 10:39 AM Eastern –

Flight tracking data claims to show that U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) AC-130J Ghostrider gunships were overhead during the Marinera operation. While we can’t independently confirm this, TWZ has written about the value Ghostriders can bring to this kind of maritime interdiction operation, which you can read about here.

Ok so we have N103MC, and N167MC. We’ll have to find more.

I totally think these are tactical regs/hexes they are using for ops. https://t.co/imxwlH2gfY

— 𝗦𝗥_𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 (@SR_Planespotter) January 7, 2026

As we previously reported, these aircraft arrived at RAF Mildenhall on Sunday. Local photographer Andrew McKelvey shared some photos of one of those Ghostriders, ARSON17, taking off from Mildenhall at about 9:45 a.m. local time (4:45 a.m. Eastern). AFSOC declined comment.

Update: 11:17 AM Eastern –

As we have previously noted, U.S. President Donald Trump has made control over Venezuelan oil a centerpiece of operations in the Caribbean that resulted in the capture of Maduro. This includes the ongoing blockade of oil tankers and the planned takeover of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.

In a post on his Truth Social site yesterday, Trump explained that Venezuela will be turning over tens of millions of barrels of oil to the U.S. to sell.

“I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America,” Trump proclaimed on Truth Social. “This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States! I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately. It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States.”

( @realDonaldTrump – Truth Social Post )
( Donald J. Trump – Jan 06 2026, 6:46 PM ET )

I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the Unit… pic.twitter.com/OKsLNqPShe

— Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial (@TruthTrumpPost) January 7, 2026

Update: 12:04 AM Eastern –

The rhetoric from Moscow about the Marinera operation is ramping up.

“We need to attack with torpedoes and sink a couple of American patrol boats,” Alexei Zhuravlev, the first deputy head of the State Duma’s Defense Committee, said today. “The U.S. needs a military response to the Marinera situation. The U.S., which is enjoying a kind of euphoria of impunity after the special operation in Venezuela, can only be stopped now with a slap in the face like this.”

Update: 12:42 PM Eastern –

During her afternoon briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked several questions about the seizure of the Marinera, as well as the Sophia. She was also queried about whether she had any information about the Russian submarine that The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday said was deployed to escort the ship. Below are some of those interactions.

Q: ​​Russia specifically asked the United States not to seize that tanker. Does this action risk a larger conflict with Russia?

A: The vessel this morning was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. Federal Court after being tracked, and this was a Venezuelan shadow fleet vessel that has transported sanctioned oil. And the United States of America under this president is not going to tolerate that. I would also just add the vessel had a judicial seizure order and the crew, so that means the crew is now subject to prosecution for any applicable violation of federal law, and they will be brought to the United States for such prosecution.

Q: Are you concerned about increasing tensions with Russia because of the tanker?

A: “…with respect to these ships seizures, that means enforcing the embargo against all Dark Fleet vessels that are illegally transporting oil and only legitimate commerce. To answer your question … that’s the policy of this administration, and he’s not afraid to implement it.

Q: Was there any engagement with that submarine … and what is the deconfliction on the Russian use ahead of that type of warning package?

A: Again, this was a Venezuelan shadow fleet vessel that has transported sanctioned oil. The vessel was deemed stateless after flying a false flag, and it had a judicial seizure order, and that’s why the crew will be subject to prosecution.

Update: 12:57 PM Eastern –

The U.K. “provided enabling support to the United States at their request to interdict the vessel,” according to the MoD, which is using the ship’s previous name to reference it.

“U.K. armed forces provided pre-planned operational support, including basing, to U.S. military assets interdicting the Bella 1 between the U.K. and Iceland following a U.S. request for assistance,” the MoD said in a statement. “RFA Tideforce is providing support for U.S. forces pursuing and interdicting the Bella 1, while the RAF provided surveillance support from the air.”

“This ship, with a nefarious history, is part of a Russian-Iranian axis of sanctions evasion which is fuelling terrorism, conflict, and misery from the Middle East to Ukraine,” Defense Secretary John Healey said. “The UK will continue to step up our action against shadow fleet activity to protect our national security, our economy, and global stability – making Britain secure at home and strong abroad.”

“Deterring and disrupting the Russian shadow fleet is a priority for the U.K.,” MoD added. “To date, we have imposed sanctions on 520 Russian shadow fleet vessels. This is working. For example, Russia’s critical oil revenues are down 27% compared to October 2024, the lowest since the start of the war in Ukraine.”

Update: 1:57 PM Eastern –

Speaking to reporters on Capitol Hill in between Congressional briefings on Venezuela, Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the Venezuelans want the oil from the seized tanker Sophia to be part of the aforementioned deal Trump stated on Truth Social.

NEW: Sec. Hegseth and Sec. Rubio speak after Senate briefing on Venezuela:

“They want that oil that was seized to be part of this deal. They understand that the only way they can move oil and generate revenue and not have economic collapse is if they cooperate and work with the… pic.twitter.com/EbUz1LNaA4

— Fox News (@FoxNews) January 7, 2026

“We are going to take between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil. We’re going to sell it in the marketplace at market rates, not at the discounts Venezuela was getting. That money will then be handled in such a way that we will control how it is dispersed in a way that benefits the… pic.twitter.com/HdUEYRi8zO

— Department of State (@StateDept) January 7, 2026

This is a developing story. Stay with TWZ for updates.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Trump has ‘greenlit’ bipartisan push to sanction countries that buy Russian energy exports, Lindsey Graham says.

United States President Donald Trump has backed a bill to impose sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil, including China and India, an influential Republican senator has said.

Lindsey Graham, a senator for the US state of South Carolina, said on Wednesday that Trump had “greenlit” the bipartisan bill following a “very productive” meeting.

Graham’s Sanctioning Russia Act, drafted with Democrat Richard Blumenthal, would give Trump the authority to impose a tariff of up to 500 percent on imports from countries doing business with Russia’s energy sector.

“This bill will allow President Trump to punish those countries who buy cheap Russian oil fueling Putin’s war machine,” Graham said in a statement, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

““This bill would give President Trump tremendous leverage against countries like China, India and Brazil to incentivize them to stop buying the cheap Russian oil that provides the financing for Putin’s bloodbath against Ukraine.”

China and Russia continue to be major buyers of Russia’s oil despite US and European sanctions imposed on the Russian energy sector in response to Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

China bought nearly half of Russia’s crude oil exports in November, while India took about 38 percent of exports, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Brazil dramatically ramped up its purchase of subsidised Russian oil after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but those imports have fallen substantially in recent months.

The latest US push to increase pressure on Russia comes as Moscow and Kyiv are engaged in Washington-brokered negotiations to bring an end to the nearly four-year war.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration for the first time gave its backing to European proposals for binding security guarantees for Ukraine, including post-war truce monitoring and a European-led multinational force.

Russia, which has repeatedly said that it will not accept any deployment of NATO member countries’ soldiers in Ukraine, has yet to indicate that it would support such security measures.

In his statement on his bill, Graham said the legislation was timely in light of the current situation in Ukraine.

“This will be well-timed, as Ukraine is making concessions for peace and Putin is all talk, continuing to kill the innocent,” he said.

Caracas, January 7, 2025 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The Trump administration has vowed to control Venezuelan oil sales for an “indefinite” period in the wake of the January 3 bombings and kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

“Instead of the oil being blockaded, we’re gonna let the oil flow to US refineries and around the world to bring better oil supplies, but have those sales done by the US,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a Goldman Sachs conference on Wednesday, January 7.

According to Wright, the process would begin with crude that is currently loaded on tankers that have not left Venezuelan shores because of the US naval blockade, before selling future production “indefinitely, going forward.”

A “fact sheet” published by the Department of Energy went on to claim that proceeds from sales of Venezuelan crude “will first settle in US-controlled accounts at globally recognized banks to guarantee the legitimacy and integrity of the ultimate distribution of proceeds.”

The document stated that a “selective rollback” of US economic sanctions will allow transactions involving Venezuelan oil products in global markets. The Department of Energy likewise announced supplies of diluents and equipment to Venezuela’s oil industry, which also require the lifting of sanctions, alongside broader US investment in the oil sector and electric grid.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed in a Wednesday press conference that the US has a “three-step plan” for Venezuela in the wake of the January 3 military attack. The first step involves “stabilizing” the country to allow for the arrival of US and Western corporations, before a stage of “national reconciliation” and finally a “transition.”

In the wake of the strikes that killed over 80 people in the Caribbean nation, Trump and administration officials have repeatedly threatened the Venezuelan government into accepting its demands, especially in the oil sector.

On Wednesday, US authorities announced the seizure of two new tankers as part of efforts to strangle Venezuelan crude exports. Rubio recently referred to the US’ naval blockade as a “lever of leverage” against Caracas. US forces had previously seized two other tankers transporting Venezuelan crude.

According to ABC, Washington has demanded that Caracas’ oil production and exports be done exclusively with US partners. In 2025, over 80 percent of Venezuelan crude exports were destined for Chinese refineries. However, Politico reported that US oil conglomerates are reluctant to invest heavily in Venezuela.

Trump had emphasized in recent weeks that the US’ main interest was control over Venezuela’s oil industry and reserves. On Tuesday, he wrote on social media that Venezuelan authorities had agreed to “turn over 30-50 million barrels” of oil to the US, in reference to the crude currently blockaded, and that he would “control” the proceeds.

On Wednesday, Trump published another social media post claiming that Caracas would only be purchasing US-made products with the oil sales revenues.

US actions have drawn domestic criticism, with Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy blasting Rubio’s “insane plan.”

“They are talking about stealing the Venezuelan oil at gunpoint for an undefined time period as leverage to micromanage the country. The scope and insanity of that plan is absolutely stunning,” Murphy told press.

Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, for its part, issued a statement on January 7 informing of talks for the “sale of large volumes of crude to the United States.” The communiqué made no reference to the terms alleged by US officials.

“PDVSA ratifies its commitment to continue building alliances that boost national development and contribute to global economic stability,” the text read.

PDVSA added that the prospective agreement would follow a “scheme” similar to the one that currently applies to Chevron. 

The US oil giant is a minority partner in four joint ventures with PDVSA. Under its present sanctions waiver, Chevron allocates crude for PDVSA to sell. However, under a previous license, Chevron would commercialize all the oil before transferring proceeds to its Venezuelan partners.

Acting President and Oil Minister Delcy Rodríguez has not commented on the US officials’ claims. In a Wednesday night televised broadcast, she said Venezuela has developed “diversified economic and geopolitical relations” all around the world.

The Venezuelan oil industry has faced multiple waves of economic sanctions dating back to the first Trump administration, including financial sanctions, an export embargo and secondary sanctions.

Caracas has made repeated calls for foreign investment, including from US companies. US refineries, particularly in the Gulf Coast, are especially geared toward Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude blends. The US was the main destination for Venezuelan oil exports prior to the 2019 embargo.
The Nicolás Maduro government additionally created favorable conditions for oil partners in a bid to ramp up oil production. The 2020 Anti-Blockade Law establishes mechanisms that supersede Venezuela’s hydrocarbon legislation, including concessions whereby private companies can lift more than half the crude produced.

The United States says it will control sales of Venezuelan oil “indefinitely” and decide how the proceeds of those sales are used, as President Donald Trump’s administration consolidates control over the South American country after abducting its president.

The US Department of Energy said on Wednesday that it had “begun marketing” Venezuelan oil on global markets and all proceeds from the sales “will first settle in US-controlled accounts at globally recognized banks”.

“These funds will be disbursed for the benefit of the American people and the Venezuelan people at the discretion of the US government,” it said.

“These oil sales begin immediately with the anticipated sale of approximately 30-50 million barrels. They will continue indefinitely.”

The announcement comes just days after the Trump administration abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday in what legal experts say was a clear violation of international law.

The US has said it plans to “run” the country and take control of its vast oil reserves, with Trump saying on social media on Tuesday that Caracas would hand between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil over to Washington.

The US actions against Venezuela come amid a months-long pressure campaign by the Trump administration against Maduro, who has been charged in New York with drug trafficking offences that he denies.

That has included a partial US naval blockade against Venezuela and the seizure of several vessels that the Trump administration says were transporting oil to and from the country in violation of US sanctions.

Earlier on Wednesday, US special forces seized two Venezuela-linked vessels – including a Russian-flagged ship in the North Atlantic – for allegedly breaching those sanctions.

The seizures came as senior US officials briefed lawmakers on Capitol Hill about the Trump administration’s plans in Venezuela.

Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher said most Republicans have backed Trump’s actions while Democrats have raised a slew of questions.

That includes “how long this operation in Venezuela will continue, what it will cost, [whether] any American servicemen actually be deployed on the ground in Venezuela, and what is the Venezuelan reaction,” Fisher explained.

“The Trump administration [is] hoping to get everyone on side before the end of the day,” he added.

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote on social media that Wednesday’s briefing was “worse” than imagined.

“Oil company executives seem to know more about Trump’s secret plan to ‘run’ Venezuela than the American people. We need public Senate hearings NOW,” she said.

Three-phased plan

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Wednesday that the Trump administration is pursuing a three-phased plan that begins with the sales of Venezuelan oil.

“That money will then be handled in such a way that we will control how it’s dispersed in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people, not corruption, not the regime,” Rubio said.

The second phase would see US and other companies gain access to the Venezuelan market, and “begin to create the process of reconciliation nationally … so that opposition forces can be amnestied and released from prisons or brought back to the country”.

“And then the third phase, of course, would be one of transition,” Rubio added.

Gregory Brew, a senior analyst on Iran and energy at Eurasia Group, said the US announcement about controlling Venezuelan oil sales hints at “a return to the concessionary system” in place before the 1970s.

Brew explained in a social media post that, under that system, “producer states own the oil but it is Western firms that manage production and marketing, ultimately retain the bulk of the profits”.

A group of United Nations experts also warned that recent statements from Trump and other administration officials about plans to “run” Venezuela and exploit its oil reserves would violate international law.

Specifically, the experts said the US position contravenes “the right of peoples to self-determination and their associated sovereignty over natural resources, cornerstones of international human rights law”.

“Venezuela’s vast natural resources, including the largest proven oil reserves in the world, must not be cynically exploited through thinly veiled pretexts to legitimise military aggression, foreign occupation, or regime-change strategies,” they said.

Political situation unstable

Renata Segura, the Latin America and Caribbean programme director at the International Crisis Group, noted Venezuelan authorities have not commented on the US saying it plans to control sales of the country’s oil.

“And so we have to assume that either [the Venezuelan authorities] have accepted these terms, or that they’re just going to be forced to accept them,” Segura told Al Jazeera.

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as president earlier this week following Maduro’s abduction, stressing on Tuesday that “there is no foreign agent governing Venezuela” despite US claims to “run” the country.

Segura explained, “There’s a lot of debate within the [Venezuelan] regime itself about how to move forward” amid the US pronouncements, stressing the political situation remains far from stable.

“It’s very important what the army might do,” she said.

“The military forces in Venezuela control enormous amounts of power – both economic but also on the streets – and there might be a moment in which they think they’re not going to be on board with this particular arrangement that the United States is presenting.”

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s administration on Wednesday sought to assert its control over Venezuelan oil, seizing a pair of sanctioned tankers transporting petroleum and announcing plans to relax some sanctions so the U.S. can oversee the sale of Venezuela’s petroleum worldwide.

Trump’s administration intends to control the distribution of Venezuela’s oil products globally following its ouster of President Nicolás Maduro in a surprise nighttime raid. Besides the United States enforcing an existing oil embargo, the Energy Department says the “only oil transported in and out of Venezuela” will be through approved channels consistent with U.S. law and national security interests.

That level of control over the world’s largest proven reserves of crude oil could give the Trump administration a broader hold on oil supplies globally in ways that could enable it to influence prices. Both moves reflect the Republican administration’s determination to make good on its effort to control the next steps in Venezuela through its vast oil resources after Trump has pledged the U.S. will “run” the country.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that the oil taken from the sanctioned vessels seized in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea would be sold as part of the deal announced by Trump on Tuesday under which Venezuela would provide up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S.

“One of those ships that was seized that had oil in the Caribbean, you know what the interim authorities are asking for in Venezuela?” Rubio told reporters after briefing lawmakers Wednesday about the Maduro operation. “They want that oil that was seized to be part of this deal. They understand that the only way they can move oil and generate revenue and not have economic collapse is if they cooperate and work with the United States.”

Seizing 2 more vessels

U.S. European Command said on social media that the merchant vessel Bella 1 was seized in the North Atlantic for “violations of U.S. sanctions.” The U.S. had been pursuing the tanker since last month after it tried to evade a blockade on sanctioned oil vessels around Venezuela.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem revealed U.S. forces also took control of the M Sophia in the Caribbean Sea. Noem said on social media that both ships were “either last docked in Venezuela or en route to it.”

The two ships join at least two others that were taken by U.S. forces last month — the Skipper and the Centuries.

The Bella 1 had been cruising across the Atlantic nearing the Caribbean on Dec. 15 when it abruptly turned and headed north, toward Europe. The change in direction came days after the first U.S. tanker seizure of a ship on Dec. 10 after it had left Venezuela carrying oil.

When the U.S. Coast Guard tried to board the Bella 1, it fled. U.S. European Command said a Coast Guard vessel had tracked the ship “pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court.”

As the U.S. pursued it, the Bella 1 was renamed Marinera and flagged to Russia, shipping databases show. A U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations, said the ship’s crew had painted a Russian flag on the side of the hull.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said it had information about Russian nationals among the Marinera’s crew and, in a statement carried by Russia’s state news agencies Tass and RIA Novosti, demanded that “the American side ensure humane and dignified treatment of them, strictly respect their rights and interests, and not hinder their speedy return to their homeland.”

Separately, a senior Russian lawmaker, Andrei Klishas, decried the U.S. action as “blatant piracy.”

The Justice Department is investigating crew members of the Bella 1 vessel for failing to obey Coast Guard orders and “criminal charges will be pursued against all culpable actors,” Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi said.

“The Department of Justice is monitoring several other vessels for similar enforcement action — anyone on any vessel who fails to obey instructions of the Coast Guard or other federal officials will be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” Bondi said on X.

The ship had been sanctioned by the U.S. in 2024 on allegations of smuggling cargo for a company linked to Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran.

Easing sanctions so U.S. can sell oil

The Trump administration, meanwhile, is “selectively” removing sanctions to enable the shipping and sale of Venezuelan oil to markets worldwide, according to an outline of the policies published Wednesday by the Energy Department.

The sales are slated to begin immediately with 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil. The U.S. government said the sales “will continue indefinitely,” with the proceeds settling in U.S.-controlled accounts at “globally recognized banks.” The money would be disbursed to the U.S. and Venezuelan populations at the “discretion” of Trump’s government.

Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA said it is in negotiations with the U.S. government for the sale of crude oil.

“This process is developed under schemes similar to those in force with international companies, such as Chevron, and is based on a strictly commercial transaction, with criteria of legality, transparency and benefit for both parties,” the company said in the statement.

The U.S. plans to authorize the importation of oil field equipment, parts and services to increase Venezuela’s oil production, which has been roughly 1 million barrels a day.

The Trump administration has indicated it also will invest in Venezuela’s electricity grid to increase production and the quality of life for people in Venezuela, whose economy has been unraveling amid changes to foreign aid and cuts to state subsidies, making necessities, including food, unaffordable to millions.

Ships said to be part of a shadow fleet

Noem said both seized ships were part of a shadow fleet of rusting oil tankers that smuggle oil for countries facing sanctions, such as Venezuela, Russia and Iran.

After the seizure of the now-named Marinera, which open-source maritime tracking sites showed was between Scotland and Iceland earlier Wednesday, the U.K. defense ministry said Britain’s military provided support, including surveillance aircraft.

“This ship, with a nefarious history, is part of a Russian-Iranian axis of sanctions evasion which is fueling terrorism, conflict, and misery from the Middle East to Ukraine,” U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey said.

The capture of the M Sophia, on the U.S. sanctions list for moving illicit cargos of oil from Russia, in the Caribbean was much less prolonged.

The ship had been “running dark,” not having transmitted location data since July. Tankers involved in smuggling often turn off their transponders or broadcast inaccurate data to hide their locations.

Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, said his organization used satellite imagery and surface-level photos to document that at least 16 tankers had left the Venezuelan coast since Saturday, after the U.S. captured Maduro.

The M Sophia was among them, Madani said, citing a recent photo showing it in the waters near Jose Terminal, Venezuela’s main oil export hub.

Windward, a maritime intelligence firm that tracks such vessels, said in a briefing to reporters the M Sophia loaded at the terminal on Dec. 26 and was carrying about 1.8 million barrels of crude oil — a cargo that would be worth about $108 million at current price of about $60 a barrel.

The press office for Venezuela’s government did not immediately respond to an Associated Press request for comment on the seizures.

Toropin, Boak, Lawless and Biesecker write for the Associated Press. Lawless reported from London.

Jan. 7 (UPI) — The United States on Wednesday said that it seized two oil tankers — a Russian-flagged vessel in the North Atlantic and another in the Caribbean Sea.

U.S. Southern Command said, in coordination with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, it “apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark fleet motor tanker without incident.”

SOUTHCOM accused the vessel, the M/T Sophia, of carrying out “illicit activities” in international waters in the Caribbean Sea. In a post on X, the agency said the U.S. Coast Guard was escorting the vessel to the United States for “final disposal.”

U.S. European Command, meanwhile, announced it seized the Russian-flagged Mariners — formerly known as the M/V Bella 1 — a vessel it had been chasing across the Atlantic Ocean since December.

EUCOM, in a post on X, said it seized the tanker for violating U.S. sanctions and transporting Iranian oil.

“The vessel was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by USCGC Munro,” the agency said.

U.S. officials said Russia sent two naval ships and a submarine to escort the Marinera, which was between Iceland and Britain, heading northeast.

The United States deployed at least 10 special-ops military aircraft and transporter aircraft thought to be carrying helicopters to RAF bases in Britain in recent days, possibly in preparation for an interdiction.

The U.S. Coast Guard attempted to execute a warrant to seize the tanker in the Caribbean in December, when it was believed to be headed to Venezuela in contravention of a partial U.S. blockade.

The ship’s final destination was thought to be the Baltic Sea, or possibly the Russian port of Murmansk on the Barents Sea.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said it was monitoring the situation with “concern” and complained about what it said was unwarranted attention from the United States and its NATO allies.

The vessel refused to permit the Coast Guard to board on its first attempt Dec. 21 when it was en route from Iran to collect oil from Venezuela, changed course and headed back out into the Atlantic.

On the way, it painted a Russian flag on the hull, changed its name from Bella 1 to “Marinera” and listed on a Russian shipping registry, in a bid to shake off its U.S. pursuers.

The New York Times reported that Hyperion and at least three other vessels plying the Venezuela route, employed similar stealth tactics, swapping their original flags for Russian ones — exacerbating already tense relations strained over the U.S. attack on Venezuela which is backed by Moscow.

All the ships are suspected of being part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” moving Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil subject to sanctions imposed by the United States, European Union and other countries around the world.

The Russian Maritime Shipping Registry records show the ships, which are all sanctioned by the United States for transporting Iranian or Russian oil, changed their home ports to Sochi or Taganrog in southern Russia and switched flags.

United States President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio say they want to free up the flow of Venezuelan oil to benefit Venezuelans after US forces abducted President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas.

“We’re going to rebuild the oil infrastructure, which requires billions of dollars that will be paid for by the oil companies directly,” Trump said at a media briefing at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida hours after Maduro was seized on Saturday. “They will be reimbursed for what they’re doing, but it’s going to be paid, and we’re going to get the oil flowing.”

Then, on Tuesday, the US president said he wanted to use proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan oil “to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States”. Rubio has echoed Trump in his comments in recent days.

But what has been holding back the flow of Venezuelan oil, preventing the country from attracting investments and driving the country into poverty?

A key reason is one that Trump and Rubio have been silent about: Washington’s own efforts to strangle Venezuela’s oil industry and economy through sanctions, which also have set off a refugee crisis.

What has Trump said about Venezuelan oil?

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday night, Trump said Venezuela will turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US.

Trump wrote: “This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!”

Trump added that he had directed his energy secretary, Chris Wright, to execute the plan “immediately”.

“It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States,” Trump wrote.

During the news conference on Saturday, Trump said US oil companies would fix Venezuela’s “broken infrastructure” and “start making money for the country”.

Earlier Trump had accused Venezuela in a Truth Social post of “stealing” US oil, land and other assets and using that oil to fund crime, “terrorism” and human trafficking. Top Trump adviser Stephen Miller has made similar claims in recent days.

What does it mean for the US to take Venezuelan oil?

Oil is trading at roughly $56 per barrel.

Based on this price, 30 million barrels of oil would be worth $1.68bn and 50 million barrels of oil would be worth $2.8bn.

“Trump’s statement about oil in Venezuela is beyond an act of war; it is an act of colonisation. That is also illegal based on the UN Charter,” Vijay Prashad, the director of the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research based in Argentina, Brazil, India, and South Africa, told Al Jazeera.

Ilias Bantekas, a professor of transnational law at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that the US involvement in Venezuela was “less about Maduro as it is about access to Venezuela’s oil deposits”.

“This [oil] is the number one target. Trump is not content with just allowing US oil firms to get concessions but to ‘run’ the country, which entails absolute and indefinite control over Venezuela’s resources.”

According to the website of the US Energy Information Administration, the US consumed an average of 20.25 million barrels of petroleum per day in 2023.

What has Rubio said about Venezuelan oil?

In an interview on the NBC TV network’s Meet the Press programme that aired on Sunday, Rubio said: “We are at war against drug trafficking organisations. That’s not a war against Venezuela.”

“No more drug trafficking … and no more using the oil industry to enrich all our adversaries around the world and not benefitting the people of Venezuela or, frankly, benefitting the United States and the region,” Rubio said.

Rubio said in the interview that since 2014, about eight million Venezuelans have fled the country, which he attributed to theft and corruption by Maduro and his allies. According to a report by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees from May, nearly 7.9 million people have indeed left Venezuela.

But he was silent on the US’s own role in creating that crisis.

What are the US sanctions against Venezuela’s oil?

Venezuela nationalised its oil industry in 1976 under then-President Carlos Andres Perez during an oil boom. He established the state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) to control all oil resources.

Venezuela continued to be a major oil exporter to the US for some years, supplying 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

After President Hugo Chavez took office in 1998, he nationalised all oil assets, seized foreign-owned assets, restructured the PDVSA and prioritised using oil revenue for social programmes in Venezuela.

From 2003 to 2007, Venezuela under Chavez managed to cut its poverty rate in half – from 57 percent to 27.5 percent. Extreme poverty fell even more sharply, by 70 percent.

But exports declined, and government authorities were accused of mismanagement.

The US first imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil in retaliation for nationalising US oil assets in 2005.

Under US sanctions, many senior Venezuelan government officials and companies have been barred from accessing any property or financial assets held in the US. They cannot access US bank accounts, sell property or access their money if it passes through the US financial system.

Critically, any US companies or citizens doing business with any sanctioned individual or company will be penalised and risk becoming subject to enforcement actions.

Maduro took over as president in 2013 after Chavez’s death. In 2017, Trump, during his first term in office, imposed more sanctions and tightened them again in 2019. This further restricted sales to the US and access for Venezuelan companies to the global financial system. As a result, oil exports to the US nearly stopped, and Venezuela shifted its trade mainly to China with some sales to India and Cuba.

Last month, the Trump administration imposed yet more sanctions – this time on Maduro family members and Venezuelan tankers carrying sanctioned oil.

Today, the PDVSA controls the petroleum industry in Venezuela, and US involvement in Venezuelan oil drilling is limited. Houston-based Chevron is the only US company that still operates in Venezuela.

How have sanctions hurt Venezuela’s oil flows?

Trump might today be interested in getting Venezuelan oil flowing, but it is US sanctions that blocked that flow in the first place.

Venezuela’s oil reserves are concentrated primarily in the Orinoco Belt, a region in the eastern part of the country stretching across roughly 55,000sq km (21,235sq miles).

While the country is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves – at an estimated 303 billion barrels – it earns only a fraction of the revenue it once did from exporting crude.

[BELOW: The sentence above promises statistics that will show how much oil exports have dropped, but the next graf doesn’t deliver. We should add that figure]

According to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Venezuela exported $4.05bn of crude oil in 2023. This is far below other major exporters, including Saudi Arabia ($181bn), the US ($125bn) and Russia ($122bn).

How have US sanctions hurt Venezuelans and the country’s oil infrastructure?

The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil prevent US and non-US companies from doing business with the PDVSA. Because the US is a market no one wants to lose, firms, including banks, are wary of taking any steps that could invite Washington’s sanctions.

In effect, that has meant Venezuela’s oil industry has been almost entirely deprived of international financial investment.

The sanctions additionally restrict Venezuela from accessing oilfield equipment, specialised software, drilling services and refinery components from Western companies.

This has resulted in years of underinvestment in the PDVSA’s infrastructure, leading to chronic breakdowns, shutdowns and accidents.

The sanctions have also resulted in broader economic turmoil.

The country’s gross domestic product per capita stood at about $4,200 in 2024, according to World Bank data, down from more than $13,600 in 2010.

From about 2012, the economy went into a sharp decline, driven by domestic economic policies, a slump that was later deepened by US sanctions. The resulting hardships have pushed millions of Venezuelans to leave the country – the same people who Trump and Rubio now argue should benefit from Venezuela’s oil revenues.

Does the US have any claim to Venezuelan oil?

US companies began drilling for oil in Venezuela in the early 1900s.

In 1922, vast petroleum reserves were initially discovered by Royal Dutch Shell in Lake Maracaibo in Zulia state in northwestern Venezuela.

At this point, US companies ramped up their investments in the extraction and development of Venezuelan oil reserves. Companies such as Standard Oil led development under concession agreements, propelling Venezuela to a position as a key global supplier, especially for the US.

Venezuela was a founding member of OPEC, joining at its creation on September 14, 1960. OPEC is a group of major oil-exporting countries that work together to manage supply and influence global oil prices.

But the claims by Trump and Miller that Venezuela somehow “stole” US oil are baseless under international law, experts said.

The principle of permanent sovereignty over natural resources, adopted by the UN General Assembly in a resolution in 1962, is clear that sovereign states have the inherent right to control, use and dispose of their resources for their own development.

In other words, Venezuela alone owns its oil.

The United States military is attempting to seize a Russian-flagged oil tanker with links to Venezuela after a weeks-long pursuit, US and Russian media outlets report.

Two unnamed US officials told the Reuters news agency on Wednesday the operation is being carried out by the Coast Guard and US military.

‌Russian state broadcaster RT reported it appears US forces are trying to board Venezuela-linked oil tanker Marinera from a helicopter, and published ⁠an image of a helicopter ​hovering near the ship.

RT cited an unnamed source as saying a US ​coast guard vessel has been ‌following the tanker and an attempt to seize it during a storm had already been ‌carried out.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has been ‌cited by state media as ⁠saying the ship, which is now flying the Russian flag, is in international waters and ‌acting according to international maritime law.

It called on Western countries to ‍respect the vessel’s right to freedom of navigation.

More to come…

Jan. 6 (UPI) — Venezuela will be turning over tens of millions of barrels of oil to the United States, President Donald Trump said Tuesday, days after the U.S. military seized the authoritarian president of the country, Nicolas Maduro.

Trump said Venezuela’s interim government, sworn in Monday, will be giving the United States between 30 million and 50 million barrels of “high quality, sanctioned oil.”

“This oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.

It was unclear when the United States would receive the oil, but it will be brought to the United States aboard oil tankers.

Trump said Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been asked to “immediately” execute the plan.

“On it Mr. President,” Wright said in response on X.

“You have my attention to this matter.”

The U.S. military seized Maduro from Venezuela in an early morning operation on Saturday following months of military buildup around the country and an escalating Trump administration pressure campaign. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, were brought to the United States to face narcotrafficking and other drug-related charges.

The Trump administration has been enforcing a naval blockade on Venezuelan oil since mid-December, with Trump arguing the South American country’s oil and assets of U.S. companies were “stolen from us,” referring to Caracas’ decades-old nationalization of its oil industry.

Delcy Rodriguez, former vice president under Maduro, was sworn in as president of Venezuela on Monday. However, Trump has said that the United States will be “running” the South American nation, though other administration officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have attempted to soften that stance.

Rodriguez is “essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” Rubio said Monday.

Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the United States consumed an average of 20.25 million barrels of petroleum per day in 2023.

BREAKINGBREAKING,

US president says oil will be sold at market prices and that he will control resulting revenues.

United States President Donald Trump has announced that Venezuela will turn over between 30 and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil.

“This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!” Trump said on his platform Truth Social on Tuesday.

“I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately. It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States.”

More to follow…

The Panama Canal has become the focus of increased US pressure as the Trump administration tries to curb Venezuelan oil shipments. Al Jazeera’s Teresa Bo breaks it down.

The administration of United States President Donald Trump is planning to meet with executives from US oil companies later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production after US forces abducted its leader, Nicolas Maduro, the Reuters news agency has reported, citing unnamed sources.

The meetings are crucial to the administration’s hopes of getting top US oil companies back into the South American nation after its government, nearly two decades ago, took control of US-led energy operations there, the Reuters news agency report said on Monday.

The three biggest US oil companies – Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron – have not yet had any conversations with the Trump administration about Maduro’s ouster, according to four oil industry executives familiar with the matter, contradicting Trump’s statements over the weekend that he had already held meetings with “all” the US oil companies, both before and since Maduro was abducted.

“Nobody in those three companies has had conversations with the White House about operating in Venezuela, pre-removal or post-removal, to this point,” one of the sources said on Monday.

The upcoming meetings will be crucial to the administration’s hopes to boost crude oil production and exports from Venezuela, a former OPEC nation that sits atop the world’s largest reserves, and whose crude oil can be refined by specially designed US refineries. Achieving that goal will require years of work and billions of dollars of investment, analysts say.

It is unclear what executives will be attending the upcoming meetings, and whether oil companies will be attending individually or collectively.

The White House did not comment on the meetings, but said it believed the US oil industry was ready to flood into Venezuela.

“All of our oil companies are ready and willing to make big investments in Venezuela that will rebuild their oil infrastructure, which was destroyed by the illegitimate Maduro regime,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers.

Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Reuters.

One oil industry executive told Reuters the companies would be reluctant to talk about potential Venezuela operations in group settings with the White House, citing antitrust concerns that limit collective discussions among competitors about investment plans, timing and production levels.

Political risks, low oil prices

US forces on Saturday conducted a raid on Venezuela’s capital, arresting Maduro in the dead of night and sending him back to the US to face narcoterrorism charges.

Hours after Maduro’s abduction, Trump said he expects the biggest US oil companies to spend billions of dollars boosting Venezuela’s oil production, after it dropped to about a third of its peak over the past two decades due to underinvestment and sanctions.

But those plans will be hindered by a lack of infrastructure, along with deep uncertainty over the country’s political future, legal framework and long-term US policy, according to industry analysts.

“While the Trump administration has suggested large US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend billions to fix infrastructure, we believe political and other risks, along with current relatively low oil prices, could prevent this from happening anytime soon,” wrote Neal Dingmann of William Blair in a note.

Material change to Venezuelan production will take a lot of time and millions of dollars of infrastructure improvement, he said.

And any investment in Venezuelan infrastructure right now would take place in a weakened global energy market. Crude prices in the US are down by 20 percent compared with last year. The price for a barrel of benchmark US crude has not been above $70 since June, and has not touched $80 per barrel since June of 2024.

A barrel of oil cost more than $130 in the leadup to the US housing crisis in 2008.

Chevron is the only US major currently operating in Venezuela’s oil fields.

Exxon and ConocoPhillips, meanwhile, had storied histories in the country before their projects were nationalised nearly two decades ago by former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Conoco has been seeking billions of dollars in restitution for the takeover of three oil projects in Venezuela under Chavez. Exxon was involved in lengthy arbitration cases against Venezuela after it exited the country in 2007.

Chevron, which exports about 150,000 barrels per day of crude from Venezuela to the US Gulf Coast, meanwhile, has had to carefully manoeuvre with the Trump administration in an effort to maintain its presence in the country in recent years.

A US embargo on Venezuelan oil remained in full effect, Trump has said.

The S&P 500 energy index rose to its highest since March 2025, with heavyweights Exxon Mobil rising by 2.2 percent and Chevron jumping by 5.1 percent.

Open-source tracking data and spotters on the ground are showing a sudden surge of U.S. aircraft to Europe. The deployments include C-17 Globemaster III cargo jets, possibly packed with helicopters, emanating from the home of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR), AC-130J Ghostrider gunships, and a shadowy special operations turboprop aircraft. While U.S. aircraft routinely transit to and through that continent, the number of flights and their origin have raised speculation of potential future special operations missions in the region, and that speculation could be well founded.

The deployments of these aircraft increasingly seem like they are in support of a future operation to board the Russian-flagged Crude Oil Tanker Marinera, which until recently has been known as the Bella-1, and has been pursued by the Coast Guard since last month. CBS News on Monday afternoon reported that the U.S. will likely try to intercept the vessel, now in the North Atlantic. We’ll discuss that more later, including why the 160th SOAR may be needed for such an operation, in this story.

Here is what we have seen over the past 36 hours. Online flight tracking data shows that there were at least 10 Globemaster flights that left the U.S. for Europe on Jan. 3. At least four of these flights were from Fort Campbell in Kentucky, fueling unconfirmed speculation of an influx of U.S. special operations aviation assets. Fort Campbell is home to the 160th SOAR, also known as the Night Stalkers, the elite aviation unit that played a key role in locating and capturing Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife. You can read more about that in our story about Operation Absolute Resolve here.

There are claims that several of the Night Stalkers’ highly modified MH-47 Chinooks and MH-60M Black Hawks, presumably dropped off by the C-17s, were seen at RAF Fairford; however, no visual evidence has emerged to confirm that. 

“As I think we have offered many times previously, we do not comment on the operational activity of other nations, including use of UK bases,” a U.K. Defense Ministry (MoD) official told us. “Likewise, neither the MOD or RAF would offer comment on speculation on what [U.S. bases in England] assets are or indeed are not doing.”

The 160th did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Beyond the possibility of the helicopters being delivered, at least two AC-130J Ghostrider gunships landed Sunday at RAF Mildenhall, where they still remain, according to Andrew McKelvey, a local spotter who was kind enough to share his photos of the aircraft with us. U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command, which operates those aircraft, declined to comment.

AC-130 GUNSHIPS ARRIVE IN UK

One of the U.S. Air Force’s shadowy CASA CN-235 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance planes was also deployed to RAF Fairford.

U.S. European Command, which oversees American military operations in that region, declined to offer any specifics about the nature of these flights.

 “U.S. European Command routinely hosts transient U.S. military aircraft (and personnel) in accordance with access, basing, and overflight agreements with Allies and partners,” the command told us in an early Monday morning email. “Taking into account operational security for U.S. assets and personnel, further details are not releasable at this time.”

While the nature of these flights remains unclear, there was a similar surge from Fort Campbell in the days leading up to Operation Absolute Resolve.

The 160th SOAR works across the globe on a daily basis, deploying for operational tasking to execute a huge array of mission sets. These include training and large-force exercises and combat operations. Night Stalker crews get experience all over the world in many environments. Movements of this kind are not that unusual, but after the Venezuelan mission, they certainly are drawing more attention.

The Marinera is another connection to Venezuela. The vessel is laden with Venezuelan oil and part of a so-called shadow fleet transporting oil for Russia, Iran and Venezuela in violation of sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries. The Trump administration said this weekend they would continue to interdict these vessels. The Coast Guard attempted to board the ship on Dec. 20, but the crew refused to allow it. As we saw last month, personnel fast-roping from helicopters played a key role in the seizure of the M/V Skipper, another sanctioned oil tanker. Night Stalker assets could very well assist in any attempt to capture the Marinera, which could be considered a more dangerous operation due to the intelligence gathered and interactions with its crew.

You can see video of the boarding of the Skipper below.

Today, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Homeland Security Investigations, and the United States Coast Guard, with support from the Department of War, executed a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran. For multiple… pic.twitter.com/dNr0oAGl5x

— Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) December 10, 2025

Highlighting the potential danger of this kind of operation, CBS News reported that “Venezuelan officials had discussed placing armed military personnel on tankers — disguising them as civilians for defense purposes — as well as portable Soviet-era air defense systems.” The discussions took place before the capture of Maduro and his wife, the network added.

Night Stalkers are far better prepared for taking down a defended ship like this, including with their defensive systems and the ability to provide their own air support. The AC-130J is also capable of making pinpoint gun strikes on vessels for exactly this kind of operation as we have showcased in our previous reporting.

27th Special Operations Wing conducts sinking exercise during RIMPAC 2024

Bolstering the theory that a special operations boarding mission may be imminent, U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft have been observed by online trackers following the Marinera.

Other nations are following the oil tanker. Irish Air Corps C-295W maritime search aircraft have also been observed by flight trackers operating near the location of the Marinera.

There are other potential reasons for the special operations aviation assets to be deployed to Europe. One possibility is a NATO exercise called Steadfast Dart 2026 that kicked off on Jan. 2.

The exercise “is a Joint Deployment Exercise to test and train the operational deployment and reinforcement of the [Allied Reaction Force] ARF 25 Elements to NATO Vigilance Area Center under peacetime conditions,” according to NATO. However, given that this was a long-planned exercise, the snap nature of the deployments from Fort Campbell and elsewhere makes it unlikely there is a connection.

Meanwhile, SOAR is also conducting a recruiting drive in Germany that begins Jan. 6, the regiment stated on X. It is unclear how many, if any, SOAR aircraft have been forward deployed for the recruitment effort. SOAR did not immediately respond to our request for comment.

KATTERBACH / ANSBACH,GERMANY. The 160th SOAR recruitment team will hold career opportunity briefs on 06 JANUARY 2026 at Katterbach/Ansbach. Looking to Go Beyond the Conventional in your military aviation career you’ll want to attend. Learn More & Apply at https://t.co/lM8G5cgcF9. pic.twitter.com/aTixBcpAm8

— Go160thSOAR (@Go160thSoar) January 4, 2026

Beyond these possibilities, there has been speculation that some U.S. assets might be heading to the Middle East ahead of a potential future conflict with Iran. We saw similar movements in the run-up to Operation Midnight Hammer, the June attack on Iran that saw U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bombers drop 14 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities.

It is also possible that the cargo flights to the Middle East are routine. There is a lot of air traffic back and forth from that region.

For example, five US Air Force C-17s landed in the region Wednesday, i didn’t even post about it because it is very normal, i dont do fearmongering pic.twitter.com/ZgfjXlJ0LS

— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) January 4, 2026

Still, given that other major U.S. operations have followed these kinds of aircraft deployments, and the situation with the now Russian-flagged Marinera tanker and reports of it being a harder target than what has been seen in other recent boarding operations, the 160th SOAR may be back at it on a world stage very soon.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com