oil

Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez has signed into law a reform bill that will pave the way for increased privatisation in the South American country’s nationalised oil sector, fulfilling a key demand from her United States counterpart, Donald Trump.

On Thursday, Rodriguez held a signing ceremony with a group of state oil workers. She hailed the reform as a positive step for Venezuela’s economy.

“We’re talking about the future. We are talking about the country that we are going to give to our children,” Rodriguez said.

The ceremony came within hours of the National Assembly – dominated by members of Rodriguez’s United Socialist Party – passing the reform.

“Only good things will come after the suffering,” said Jorge Rodriguez, the assembly’s head and brother of the interim president.

Since the US military’s abduction of Venezuela’s former leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores on January 3, the Trump administration has sought to pressure President Rodriguez to open the country’s oil sector to outside investment.

Trump has even warned that Rodriguez could “pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro”, should she fail to comply with his demands.

Thursday’s legislation will give private firms control over the sale and production of Venezuelan oil.

It would also require legal disputes to be resolved outside of Venezuelan courts, a change long sought by foreign companies, who argue that the judicial system in the country is dominated by the ruling socialist party.

The bill would also cap royalties collected by the government at 30 percent.

While Rodriguez signed the reform law, the Trump administration simultaneously announced it would loosen some sanctions restricting the sale of Venezuelan oil.

The Department of the Treasury said it would allow limited transactions by the country’s government and the state oil company PDVSA that were “necessary to the lifting, exportation, reexportation, sale, resale, supply, storage, marketing, purchase, delivery, or transportation of Venezuelan-origin oil, including the refining of such oil, by an established US entity”.

Previously, all of Venezuela’s oil sector was subject to sweeping US sanctions imposed in 2019, under Trump’s first term as president.

Thursday’s suite of changes is designed to make Venezuela’s oil market more appealing to outside petroleum firms, many of whom remain wary of investing in the country.

Under Maduro, Venezuela experienced waves of political repression and economic instability, and much of his government remains intact, though Maduro himself is currently awaiting trial in a New York prison.

His abduction resulted in dozens of deaths, and critics have accused the US of violating Venezuelan sovereignty.

Venezuela nationalised its oil sector in the 1970s, and in 2007, Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, pushed the government to increase its control and expropriate foreign-held assets.

Following Maduro’s abduction, Trump administration officials have said that the US will decide to whom and under what conditions Venezuelan oil is sold, with proceeds deposited into a US-controlled bank account.

Concerns about the legality of such measures or the sovereignty of Venezuela have been waved aside by Trump and his allies, who previously asserted that Venezuelan oil should “belong” to the US.

Caracas, January 29, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the Trump administration’s January 3 attack on Venezuela and kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro during a Senate hearing on Wednesday.

“[Having Maduro in power] was an enormous strategic risk for the United States,“ Rubio said in his testimony to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. “It was an untenable situation, and it had to be addressed.”

The Trump official claimed that the military operation aimed to “aid law enforcement” and did not constitute an act of war. He likewise emphasized the White House’s concern about Venezuela allegedly being a “base of operations” for US geopolitical rivals Iran, Russia, and China.

Rubio faced criticism from multiple senators, with Rand Paul arguing that the White House would consider a similar attack directed against the US as an act of war. Despite widespread criticism from Democrats and a handful of Republicans, efforts to pass War Powers resolutions have been narrowly defeated in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty to charges including drug trafficking conspiracy in a New York federal court on January 5. US officials have never presented evidence tying high-ranking Venezuelan leaders to narcotics activities, and specialized agencies have consistently found the Caribbean nation to play a marginal role in global drug trafficking.

The Venezuelan government, led by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, has repeatedly denounced the US attack and demanded the release of Maduro and Flores. At the same time, Rodríguez and other officials have advocated for renewed diplomatic engagement to settle “differences” with Washington.

The January 3 strikes, which killed 100 people, have drawn widespread condemnation in Latin America and beyond. A recent Progressive International summit in Colombia called for a joint regional response against US aggression.

During Wednesday’s hearing, Rubio reiterated the US government’s plans to control the Venezuelan oil sector and impose conditions on the acting Rodríguez administration. He added that the White House is seeking stability in the South American country ahead of a “democratic transition.”

Rubio additionally confirmed that Washington is administering Venezuelan oil sales, with proceeds deposited in US-controlled bank accounts in Qatar before a portion is rerouted to Caracas. He added that at some point the funds will run through Treasury Department accounts in the United States.

Democratic senators questioned the legality and transparency of the present arrangement. The Secretary of State further claimed that Caracas would need to submit a “budget request” before accessing its funds.

The initial deal reportedly comprised some 50 million barrels of oil, worth around $2 billion, that had accumulated due to a US naval blockade of Venezuelan exports. After a reported $300 million were turned over to Venezuelan private banks last week, the Venezuelan Central Bank announced that a further $200 million will be made available in early February.

Venezuelan banks are offering the foreign currency in auction to customers, with officials vowing  priority for imports in the food and healthcare sectors. 

According to Reuters, the US Treasury Department is preparing a general license to allow select corporations to engage in oil dealings with Caracas. Since 2017, the Venezuelan oil industry has been under wide-reaching unilateral coercive measures, including financial sanctions, an export embargo, and secondary sanctions.

In his address, Rubio went on to state that Venezuelan authorities “deserve credit for eradicating Chávez-era restrictions on private investment” in the oil industry, in reference to a recent overhaul of the country’s 2001 Hydrocarbons preliminarily approved last week. He added that a portion of oil revenues will be used for imports from US manufacturers.

On Tuesday, Acting President Rodríguez announced during a televised broadcast that Venezuela was importing medical equipment from the US using “unblocked funds.” 

The Venezuelan leader emphasized the importance of relations based on mutual respect with the US and rejected claims that her government is subject to dictates from foreign actors. She affirmed that there are open “communication channels” with the Trump administration and collaboration with Rubio on a “working agenda.”

The acting authorities in Caracas have sought to promote a significant rebound of crude production by offering expanded benefits to private investors as part of the reform bill. Expected to be finally approved in the coming weeks, the new law abrogates provisions introduced under former President Hugo Chávez to ensure majority state control over the oil sector in favor of flexible arrangements granting substantial autonomy to corporate partners.

Published on
29/01/2026 – 12:38 GMT+1

Oil prices rose on Thursday after US President Donald Trump warned Iran that “time is running out” and said a “massive armada” was heading towards the region if Tehran failed to agree to a nuclear non-proliferation deal.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said a fleet larger than the one sent to Venezuela was ready to “rapidly fulfil its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary” if Iran refused to negotiate a deal guaranteeing “no nuclear weapons”.

Global benchmark Brent rose by about 2.02%, trading at around $68.73 per barrel, while US crude (WTI) hovered around 2.15% higher, at $64.57 per barrel.

Trump previously threatened to attack Iran if it killed protesters during the ongoing protest movement across the country. Estimates of those killed range from around 6,000 to as many as 30,000, according to various reports.

Oil delivery disruptions

If the US were to escalate militarily, it could disrupt oil flows to countries that still trade with Iran.

Iran’s economy is already under heavy pressure from US secondary financial sanctions on its banking and energy sectors, compounded by the reimposition of JCPOA snapback sanctions.

These measures have severely limited Iran’s access to the Western financial system and constrained its ability to trade openly.

As a result, Iranian exports rely heavily on so-called “dark fleets,” ship-to-ship transfers and intermediary routes designed to obscure cargo origins along major maritime corridors.

Yet despite years of sanctions, Iran has retained access to oil markets, underlining the difficulty of fully enforcing restrictions on a high-value global commodity.

“Iran has a number of markets for its oil, despite the Western sanctions regime,” said Dmitry Grozubinski, a senior advisor on international trade policy at Aurora Macro Strategies.

China at centre of enforcement risk

China remains the largest buyer, with reports suggesting Iranian crude is often rebranded as Malaysian or Gulf-origin oil before entering the country.

“Independent refineries are purchasing it using dark fleet vessels, with transactions conducted through small private banks and in renminbi,” Grozubinski said.

Other destinations for Iranian oil and derivatives include Iraq, the UAE and Turkey, further complicating enforcement.

“It’s extremely difficult to maintain comprehensive sanctions on oil,” Grozubinski said, “especially when it requires policing transactions between Iran and states that don’t fully share Western priorities.”

China currently imports an estimated 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels of Iranian oil per day — around 80 to 90% of Iran’s crude exports.

US escalation could provoke Beijing

That dependence makes Beijing the central variable in any escalation. Analysts say China would be the most likely major economy to resist compliance and retaliate.

“Beijing has already signalled it would respond if Trump follows through,” said Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, warning of renewed US–China trade friction.

One risk raised by analysts is the potential for China to again restrict exports of rare earths — a tool it has previously used during periods of trade tension — although such a move is considered unlikely in the short term.

“It’s not the base case,” Alamariu said, “but it’s not impossible.”

The president says Mexico’s decision ‘to sell or give oil to Cuba for humanitarian reasons’ was a ‘sovereign’ one.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says her country will continue to show “solidarity” with Cuba after media reports that her government halted a shipment of oil to Havana.

Mexico has in recent years become a top supplier of oil to Cuba, which relies on cut-price oil supplies from its allies to survive a US trade embargo and keep the lights on through a severe energy crisis.

Venezuela had been a major supplier of discounted crude to Cuba, but US President Donald Trump said he would halt the shipments after the United States military abducted long-term Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro this month.

As recently as December, Mexico was still sending oil to Cuba, but several media outlets, including Bloomberg and the Mexican newspaper Reforma, have reported that a shipment planned in January was called off.

Sheinbaum refused to confirm or deny the reports on Tuesday. She told reporters during her regular morning news conference that Mexico’s decision “to sell or give oil to Cuba for humanitarian reasons” was a “sovereign decision”.

“It is determined by [Mexican state oil company] Pemex based on the contracts, or, in any case, by the government, as a humanitarian decision to send it under certain circumstances,” Sheinbaum said.

When asked if Mexico would be resuming oil shipments to Cuba, the president sidestepped the question and said, “In any case, it will be reported”. She also said Mexico would “continue to show solidarity” with Cuba.

The Reuters news agency last week reported that the Mexican government was reviewing whether to keep sending oil to Cuba amid growing concerns within Sheinbaum’s government that continuing the shipments could put the country at odds with the US.

Trump on Tuesday told reporters that “Cuba will be failing very soon”, adding that Venezuela has ‌not ‌recently sent ⁠oil or money ‌to Cuba.

According to shipping data and internal documents from state company PDVSA, Venezuela has not sent crude or fuel to Cuba for about a month.

Last year, Mexico sent approximately 5,000 barrels per day to Cuba. With Venezuela’s shipments now offline, Mexico’s supplies are critical.

Jan. 27 (UPI) — Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Tuesday that oil shipments to Cuba have been suspended, reflecting a decision made by Petróleos Mexicanos within the framework of its contractual relationship with the island.

During her morning news conference at the National Palace, Sheinbaum was asked about press reports indicating that Pemex had canceled a crude shipment bound for Cuba scheduled for January.

The president did not deny the suspension, but stressed that it is up to the state-owned company to decide when and how shipments are carried out.

“It is a sovereign decision, and it is made at the time deemed necessary,” she said when questioned about the published information.

Sheinbaum said decisions related to energy supplies to Cuba are part of Pemex’s operational and contractual assessments. She emphasized that Mexico’s policy toward the island is neither new nor exclusive to her administration.

She noted that previous governments maintained different types of energy ties with Cuba, even amid political disagreements.

“From the first blockade of Cuba, Mexico was the only country that voted against it, and since then it has maintained communication and different types of relations with the island,” she said.

The president also framed the bilateral relationship within a historical tradition of Mexican foreign policy, which has maintained ties with Cuba since the early years of the economic embargo imposed by the United States.

“Beyond positions toward whichever Cuban government is in power, the relationship is with the peoples, and that is a fundamental principle of Mexican foreign policy,” Sheinbaum said.

In that context, Sheinbaum said the economic blockade has generated supply problems on the island and that Mexico has maintained a policy of solidarity with the Cuban people over time.

She added that any future decision on resuming shipments will be communicated in a timely manner by the relevant authorities.

Asked whether Mexico could play an intermediary role between Cuba and the United States in the event of bilateral tensions, the president said such initiatives can only move forward if both parties request them, and reiterated that Mexico will continue to promote dialogue and the peaceful resolution of international differences.

Mexico consolidated its position in 2025 as Cuba’s main oil supplier, covering approximately 44% of the island’s crude imports and displacing Venezuela, with an average of more than 12,000 barrels per day.

With Venezuela’s exit as a key supplier following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3 by U.S. military forces, Mexico assumed a central role in supplying the island’s energy needs.

As a result, in Cuba the decision by Mexico could have a significant impact on its already fragile energy situation, by reducing one of the external sources that had helped ease the island’s fuel deficit.

The measure could translate into increased blackouts, transportation restrictions and disruptions to key sectors such as industry and services, in a context marked by a shortage of foreign currency and difficulties accessing alternative suppliers on the international market due to the blockade that has affected the island for decades.