October

The Real-Life Hunt For Red October Happened 50 Years Ago

Naval mutinies have long captured the public imagination, but, for the most part, open rebellions on the high seas are consigned to the Age of Exploration, in centuries past. One notable exception occurred in the Soviet Navy 50 years ago this month and, based on available evidence, almost led to the use of nuclear weapons. The mutiny aboard the frigate Storozhevoy is all the more remarkable for the fact that the Kremlin attempted to cover up its existence, with details only emerging in public a decade after its bloody end.

The story was dramatic enough, and its potential implications were worrisome enough for it to be an inspiration for Tom Clancy’s iconic Cold War novel (which in turn led to the film), The Hunt for Red October. This is the story of the fictional Soviet submarine captain Marko Ramius, who apparently goes rogue while commanding a highly advanced ballistic missile submarine.

In the real-life incident, the protagonist was 36-year-old Valery Mikhailovich Sablin, a political officer onboard the Storozhevoy, a Project 1135 anti-submarine warfare frigate, known to NATO as the Krivak I class, and with a displacement of around 3,000 tons. A representative image of a Krivak I is seen at the top of this story, at anchor.

An official portrait of Valery Mikhailovich Sablin, when he was a Soviet Navy Captain 3rd Rank, to which he was promoted in December 1975. Public Domain

At the time, this was one of the most advanced surface combatants in Soviet service. It had been commissioned in 1974, and it was assigned to the Baltic Fleet. The primary anti-submarine armament of the Krivak I was the quadruple launcher for URPK-4 Metel’ missiles (known to NATO as SS-N-14 Silex), located on the bow, each of which transported a torpedo payload. This feature led to the NATO mnemonic ‘Hot dog pack, smokestack, guns in back — KRIVAK,’ to aid identification.

Unlike Ramius, Sablin was seeking not to defect, but to urge a rethinking of the communist revolution, since he was convinced the Soviet regime had strayed dangerously far from the Marxist principles that he believed in.

Sablin’s plan was to take advantage of the excitement surrounding the anniversary of the 1917 revolution, celebrated every November 7. At the time, the Storozhevoy was moored in Riga, in the Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic. Most reports agree that, apart from its primary anti-submarine missiles, the frigate was fully armed, including with surface-to-air missiles for point defense, anti-submarine torpedoes, and 76mm guns.

A starboard view of a Soviet Krivak I class guided missile frigate underway.
A U.S. Navy photo of a Soviet Krivak I class frigate underway, in the mid-1980s. This is the Poryvistyy, but the Storozhevoy was similar. U.S. Navy PH3 C. WHORTON

Sablin wanted to take control of the Storozhevoy and sail east, to Leningrad, where he would arrive alongside the museum ship Aurora (the cruiser that was and remains a potent symbol of the 1917 revolution), and incite something like an uprising against the current regime, under Premier Leonid Brezhnev.

A procession of military floats, bearing large propaganda signs, moves slowly through Red Square during the 59th anniversary celebrations of the Bolsheviks' 1917 October Revolution. (Photo by �� Marc Garanger/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty Images)
A procession of military floats, bearing large propaganda signs, moves slowly through Red Square during the 59th anniversary celebrations of the 1917 October Revolution, in 1976. Photo by Marc Garanger/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty Images Marc Garanger

The mutiny began on November 8, 1975, by which time Sablin had already convinced a 20-year-old naval rating, Aleksandr Nikolayevich Shein, and other sympathetic crewmen to assist him.

An official portrait of Seaman Alexander Shein, dating from the early 1970s. Public Domain

With a third of the 194-man crew on shore leave, Sablin and Shein surprised and locked up the ship’s commanding officer. The remaining officers were summoned to a meeting, where Sablin explained the situation. Shein stood outside the door armed with a pistol. Those officers who refused to join the mutiny were also locked up.

In the meantime, two crew members had managed to escape the frigate, climbing onto a mooring buoy, then attracting attention. However, their story was not initially taken seriously.

When Sablin became aware that his plan had likely been revealed, he gave up on the idea of reaching Leningrad and instead decided to sail out into international waters, from where he could transmit the speech he had prepared and, he hoped, trigger a new revolution.

A map showing the approximate positions of key locations in the Storozhevoy incident. As of 1975, the three Baltic States were Soviet Socialist Republics and Saint Petersburg was still named Leningrad. Google Earth

Traveling radio silent, with no radar turned on, the Storozhevoy could not move as quickly as usual, since navigation was degraded. Nevertheless, at around 2:50 a.m., the frigate moved out into the Gulf of Riga.

Once it was noticed that the frigate had set sail, a response was launched but seems to have been somewhat slowed down as a result of the effects of copious alcohol consumed in the course of the weekend’s revolutionary celebrations.

Still, 45 minutes after the Storozhevoy sailed, other ships began their pursuit.

Unfortunately for Sablin, the Soviet authorities were now convinced that he must be poised to defect to the West.

Project 50 or Riga class frigates were among the most important vessels involved in the hunt for the Storozhevoy. This example was photographed during the Okean naval exercise, in the Philippine Sea, in April 1970. U.S. Navy

Early on the morning of November 9, a large flotilla was ordered to find the Storozhevoy, including warships sailing from Liepaja, also in the Latvian SSR. Among them were small missile corvettes, faster than the Krivak I.

It seems the first vessels to sight the Storozhevoy were torpedo-armed patrol boats from the Soviet Border Troops, who ordered the frigate to stop, but their signals were ignored. They were then ordered to fire upon the rogue warship, but this order was rescinded before they could open fire.

The reason for the change of plan was that the incident had now been passed higher up through the chain of command, and news of it had reached Moscow.

In the meantime, Sablin had sent an encrypted telegram to the commander-in-chief of the Soviet Navy, laying out his demands. These included declaring the shop a free territory, permission to make a radio and TV broadcast, safe anchorage in Soviet waters, and more. The navy rejected the demands and instead called for Sablin to return the Storozhevoy to port.

A starboard bow view of the Soviet Poti class fast attack patrol craft 180 underway.
Another warship type involved in the hunt for the Storozhevoy was the Project 204 or Poti class anti-submarine warfare corvette. These were the first Soviet warships powered by gas turbine engines, and they were notably fast. U.S. Navy PH2 D. Beech

A furious Sablin then tried to broadcast a message, outlining the reasons for the mutiny, on an open channel. Unbeknownst to Sablin, the radio operator tasked with the job again used the encrypted channel.

At around 6:00 a.m., the Soviet premier was woken and informed of the situation. Terrified by the prospect of the modern Krivak I class falling into an adversary’s hands, Brezhnev now called for the destruction of the Storozhevoy at all costs. This fear seems to have entirely overridden any concern to hear out the demands of the mutineers, if they were even taken seriously.

Several efforts were made to attack the frigate.

First, it had to be located.

On the morning of the 9th, two Il-38 May maritime patrol aircraft, flying out of Riga, began to look for it. One of them found it at around 8:05 a.m. in the Irben Sound, the main exit out of the Gulf of Riga and into the Baltic Sea.

An air to air right side view of a Soviet IL-38 May aircraft.
A Soviet Navy Il-38 maritime patrol aircraft photographed by a U.S. Navy interceptor in April 1987. U.S. Navy UNKNOWN

Ultimately, the commander of Naval Aviation of the Baltic Fleet called for Tu-16K-10-26 Badger-C bombers to strike the Storozhevoy with K-10S (AS-2 Kipper) anti-ship cruise missiles, including authorizing the use of nuclear-armed weapons. Nine of these bombers were launched from Bykhov Air Base in the Belarusian SSR at 8:30 a.m. At least one of the aircraft appears to have been carrying a nuclear-tipped version of the K-10S missile. As well as a single K-10S, the Tu-16K-10-26 sub-variant of the Badger was able to carry two KSR-2 (AS-5 Kelt) or the more modern, supersonic KSR-5 (AS-6 Kingfish) anti-ship cruise missiles, but available accounts don’t mention that the aircraft were loaded with these.

A classic Cold War photo of a Soviet Navy Tu-16K-10-26 Badger-C, dating from 1984. On this occasion, the aircraft is flying unarmed. U.S. Department of Defense

The bombers were in the vicinity of the Storozhevoy shortly after 09:00 a.m. For around an hour, the Tu-16s repeatedly dropped below the cloud base and made passes of the frigate, with the aim of forcing Sablin to surrender. Warning shots were fired using the bombers’ 23mm defensive cannons. The Badger-C had a fairly heavy cannon armament, with two 23mm AM-23 cannons each in remotely operated dorsal and ventral turrets and a crewed tail turret, but they were not designed for engaging surface targets.

When the cannons didn’t have the desired effect, the Badger crews instead took to flying very low over the warship, selecting full power on their twin turbojets, and successfully forcing the ship to deviate from its course.

By 10:05 a.m., the Storozhevoy was headed west, toward the Swedish island of Gotland, though Sablin always insisted his original plan was not to enter Swedish waters.

A wider view of the ara of the Baltic Sea that played host to the Storozhevoy incident. According to official Soviet accounts, the warship got to within 21 nautical
miles of the Swedish coast. Google Earth

Such evasive action only increased the concerns of the Soviet authorities, who now called into action the Yak-28 Brewer tactical bombers based at Tukums, in the Latvian SSR. Armed with free-fall bombs, these were a more flexible option than the Tu-16s. The Yak-28 unit was informed that they were to attack a foreign warship that had penetrated the Gulf of Riga. However, the unit was also unfamiliar with attacking naval targets and initially failed to locate the Storozhevoy. There was also no coordination between the (Air Force) Yak-28 unit and the (Navy) Il-38 and Tu-16 units.

A left underside view of a Soviet Yak-28 Brewer-C aircraft.
A Soviet Air Force Yak-28 Brewer-C. This was the most important bomber version of the jet. U.S. Department of Defense UNKNOWN

By 10:00 a.m., there were around 20 Yak-28s in the air and, by 10:20 a.m., these had begun to attack, from a height of around 1,500 feet. Unfortunately for the Air Force, it was the wrong target: The Brewer crews had misidentified a Soviet cargo ship, onto which fragmentation bombs now rained. The ship’s crew radioed for help, and the attack was called off, with no injuries.

At 10:28 a.m., the Yak-28s located the rogue warship and were ordered to hit it, with no warning shots this time. Again, however, bombs were dropped on the wrong target, namely the Komsomolets Litvy, a Project 50 or Riga class frigate, and the lead ship in the flotilla that was chasing the Storozhevoy. The ship launched signal rockets, which were misidentified as anti-aircraft fire, before the pilots realized they had again hit the wrong ship.

The Soviet commanders then called upon the Tu-16 units once more. The pursuit flotilla was ordered to move, and the bombers tasked with holding station behind the Storozhevoy, from where K-10S missiles would be launched.

The order then came at 10:16 a.m. to launch a missile, including the protocol for the use of nuclear weapons. The Tu-16 flown by the commander of the unit, Colonel Arkhip Savinkov, took position.

A Soviet Tu-16K-10 Badger-C flying past the aircraft carrier USS Ranger (CV-61) in 1989. U.S. Navy

By this stage, other members of the frigate’s crew understood that their time was nearly up. A group of them freed the captain and other detained officers, who then armed themselves and stormed the bridge. In the confrontation that followed, Sablin was shot in the leg and was then locked up. The freed captain then sent a message that the mutiny was over.

With the Tu-16 preparing to launch, the headquarters of the Baltic Fleet received an urgent message that the Storozhevoy had surrendered. Orders went out to stop the attack, but Savinkov, the Tu-16 unit’s commander, either didn’t receive them or ignored them, perhaps determining that they were meant for the Yak-28 unit.

For another two tense minutes, after the crew had messaged their surrender, the Tu-16 unit was still hunting the Storozhevoy with the intention to destroy it. Savinkov then reported a radar malfunction. Whether this was true, or a result of him not wishing to unclear a nuclear strike (especially against his countrymen), or that he was now too close to the target to launch a missile, he called off his attack. Puzzlingly, another two Tu-16s from the same unit briefly continued their attack plan. It’s unclear if these Badgers carried Kipper anti-ship missiles armed with conventional warheads, if there was some kind of breakdown in communication between the formation, or if all the bombers involved actually had no real desire to attack the warship.

Regardless, at 11:00 a.m., the fire-damaged Komsomolets Litvy reached the Storozhevoy. With an Il-38 and more Tu-16s patrolling overhead, and several other patrol boats in the vicinity, the boarding party of 15 men took over the vessel. The frigate changed course and was then anchored off the island of Saaremaa. The crew was then returned by boat to Riga. Here they were interviewed, with the 12 sailors identified as mutineers — among them, Sablin and Shein — were arrested and taken to Moscow.

A Soviet Il-38 flies over a Krivak class frigate during an exercise in the Pacific Ocean, in May 1979. U.S. Navy

The incident had highlighted the poor combat readiness and inefficient chain of command within the Baltic Fleet, and efforts were immediately made to cover it up, including the destruction of documents.

Nevertheless, details leaked out, and some presumed details of the mutiny began to be published in the Western media. A key source of information was Swedish military intelligence, which had monitored the events via signals intelligence (SIGINT). Early Western reports included erroneous accounts that as many as 15 sailors had been killed aboard the Storozhevoy and that 35 more were killed on the ship that was accidentally attacked — the Komsomolets Litvy.

As for the two ringleaders, Shein was imprisoned, while Sablin was sentenced to death for treason and executed in August 1976.

In retrospect, the idealistic Sablin’s plan was likely always doomed to failure. It remains fortunate, however, that his was the only life lost in an incident that could have had much more serious repercussions. Indeed, the available evidence that has emerged since the mutiny suggests that, back in November 1975, only a few minutes stood between the Soviet Navy launching a nuclear strike against one of its own vessels.

Ultimately, perhaps, Colonel Arkhip Savinkov, as commander of what appears to have been a nuclear-armed Tu-16, might have been the one responsible for preventing what could have been a catastrophe. Ironically, the fact that he didn’t launch his missile, for whatever reason, meant that he would be viewed with suspicion by the Soviet military leadership for the rest of his career.

The author is indebted to the work of Michael Friedholm von Essen, whose authoritative account of the mutiny aboard the Storozhevoy is published by Helion & Company.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Thomas is a defense writer and editor with over 20 years of experience covering military aerospace topics and conflicts. He’s written a number of books, edited many more, and has contributed to many of the world’s leading aviation publications. Before joining The War Zone in 2020, he was the editor of AirForces Monthly.


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US government to nix October inflation report after history-making shutdown | Donald Trump News

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced it will not release inflation information for the month of October, citing the consequences of the recent government shutdown.

On Friday, the bureau updated its website to say that certain October data would not be available, even now that government funding has been restored and normal operations have resumed.

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“BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data due to a lapse in appropriations,” it wrote in a statement. “BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data.”

The cancelled data includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a report that is commonly used to calculate inflation by measuring the changing costs of retail items — and the Real Earnings summary, which tracks wages among US workers.

For some of the reports, including the Consumer Price Index, the bureau said it would use “nonsurvey data sources” to make calculations that would be included in a future report for the month of November.

The November Consumer Price Index will also be published later than anticipated, on December 18.

The most recent government shutdown was the longest in US history, spanning nearly 43 days.

It began on October 1, after the US Congress missed a September 30 deadline to pass legislation to keep the government funded.

Republicans had hoped to push through a continuing resolution that made no changes to current spending levels. But Democrats had baulked at the prospect, arguing that recent restrictions to government programmes had put healthcare out of reach for some US citizens.

They also warned that insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act are set to expire by the end of the year. Without an extension to those subsidies, they said that insurance premiums for many Americans will spike.

Republicans rejected the prospect of negotiating the issue until after their continuing resolution was passed. Democrats, meanwhile, feared that, if they passed the continuing resolution without changes, there would be no further opportunity to address healthcare spending before the end of the year.

The two parties hit an impasse as a result. Non-essential government functions were halted during the shutdown, and many federal employees were furloughed.

Only on November 10 did a breakthrough begin to emerge. Late that night, seven Democrats and one independent broke from their caucus to side with Republicans and pass a budget bill to fund the government through January 30.

The bill was then approved by the House of Representatives on November 12, by a vote of 222 to 209. President Donald Trump signed the legislation into law that very same day.

Trump had openly sought to leverage the shutdown to eliminate federal programmes he saw as benefitting Democratic strongholds.

He also attempted to blame the political left for the lapse in government services, though he acknowledged public frustration with Republicans after Democrats won key elections in November.

“If you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans,” he told a breakfast for Republican senators on November 5. “That was a big factor.”

The Trump administration had warned as early as October that the month’s consumer price data would be negatively affected as a result of the shutdown.

In a White House statement, Trump officials touted Trump’s economic record while slamming a potential lapse in the government’s collection of data. Once again, they angled the blame for any slowed economic growth at the Democrats.

“Unfortunately, the Democrat Shutdown risks grinding that progress to a halt,” the statement said.

“Because surveyors cannot deploy to the field, the White House has learned there will likely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history — depriving policymakers and markets of critical data and risking economic calamity.”

September’s Consumer Price Index, the most recent available, showed that inflation across all retail items rose about 3 percent over the previous 12-month period.

For food alone, inflation for that period was estimated at 3.1 percent.

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Government borrowing for October higher than expected

Rachel ClunBusiness reporter

Getty Images People in suits and casual outfits walk across a bridge on a sunny day.Getty Images

UK government borrowing was higher than expected last month according to the latest official figures.

Borrowing – the difference between public spending and tax income – was £17.4bn in October, down from £19.2bn in the same month last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The borrowing figures come less than a week before Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveils her Budget, and she has previously confirmed both tax rises and spending cuts are on the table.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said while borrowing was down compared with the same month last year, it was “the third-highest October figure on record in cash terms”.

However, borrowing was £1.8bn lower than in October last year.

“While spending on public services and benefits were both up on October last year, this was more than offset by increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions,” he said.

Analysts had expected October borrowing to be £15bn, slightly higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March forecast of £14.4bn.

In the financial year to October, borrowing was £116.8bn, which was £9bn more than the same seven-month period in 2024. It was the second-highest borrowing for April to October since records began in 1993, after 2020.

A Bar chart titled 'Government borrowing in October', showing the UK's public sector net borrowing, excluding public sector banks, from October 2020 to 2025. In October 2023, public sector net borrowing stood at £16.4 billion. It then rose to £19.3 billion in October 2024, before falling back to £17.4 billion in October 2025. The source is the Office for National Statistics.

Chief secretary to the Treasury James Murray said the government aimed to reduce borrowing over the course of the parliament, with £1 of every £10 in taxpayer money currently spent on paying interest on national debt.

“That money should be going to our schools, hospitals, police and armed forces,” he said.

“That is why we are set to deliver the largest primary deficit reduction in both the G7 and G20 over the next five years – to get borrowing costs down.”

Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said borrowing so far this financial year had been the highest on record outside the pandemic.

“If Labour had any backbone, they would control spending to avoid tax rises next week,” he said.

James Smith from investment bank ING said the figures would not be welcomed by the chancellor ahead of her Budget, but said her fiscal rules were about what happens later this decade, rather than the current picture.

“Today’s data is not helpful, it shows that the government is borrowing more than expected, but it doesn’t necessarily change the decisions next week,” he told the BBC’s Today programme.

Nick Ridpath, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, noted government borrowing for the year to date had continued to exceed forecasts from the OBR, “to the tune of around £10bn”.

Mr Ridpath said that while the borrowing figures should not be given too much weight, ahead of the Budget they highlighted the uncertainty around pressures on spending and tax revenues and the “stubbornly high costs of servicing government debt”.

The chancellor needs to find more money in her 26 November Budget to meet her self-imposed rules for government finances, which she has described as “non-negotiable”.

The two main rules are:

  • Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament
  • To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament

The BBC understands that newer assessments from the OBR have put the gap in public finances that Reeves needs to fill at £20bn.

Mr Ridpath said: “Operating with minimal fiscal margin for error is risky, and this is one reason why the chancellor might sensibly take steps to increase her so-called ‘fiscal headroom’ at next week’s Budget.”

Separate data from the ONS showed that over the month of October retail sales fell by 1.1% – the first monthly drop since May.

“Supermarkets, clothing stores and online retailers all saw slower sales, with feedback from some retailers that consumers were waiting for November’s Black Friday deals,” Mr Fitzner said.

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that together the latest government borrowing and retail sales figures painted a “pretty grim picture” of the economy.

She noted the monthly fall in retail sales “isn’t quite as bad as it looks” as it comes off the back of four consecutive months of increases, but also said that consumer confidence had declined, which “suggests that consumers aren’t exactly chipper at the moment”.

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U.S. labor officials: Full October jobs report won’t be released

A now hiring sign pictured Jan. 2021 outside a fast food restaurant in Wilmington, Calif. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said October’s full jobs report will not be released following the government shutdown. BLS added instead it will unveil its October payroll data in addition to a full report for November. File Photo by Jim Ruymen/UPI | License Photo

Nov. 19 (UPI) — The federal government said Wednesday that October’s full jobs report will not be released following the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said instead it will unveil its October payroll data in addition to a full report for November.

October’s unemployment rate will not be included because, according to BLS officials, those figures “could not be collected” due to the shutdown.

Last week, the Trump administration warned the shutdown by the Republican-controlled congress may likely impact the Consumer Price Index and federal jobs reports slated to be released as expected.

The White House claimed the showdown “permanently damaged the federal statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released.”

But the bureau indicated it will bump its November jobs data release nearly two weeks to Dec. 16.

Some 42,000 jobs were added in October in companies with at least 250 workers following September’s drop of around 29,000, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said earlier this month.

Meanwhile, the lack of data fuels further speculation on Wall Street.

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