new poll

SACRAMENTO — Xavier Becerra is poised to make history as California’s first elected Latino governor, according to a new poll.

But the survey shows voters, and Latinos in particular, have mixed views on the significance and impact of Becerra’s probable win.

According to the poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, the veteran Democratic politician was backed by 61% of likely California voters, compared with 34% who supported his Republican rival, former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton. That is slightly up from a September IGS survey that showed Becerra leading by 25 percentage points.

“He’s solidified almost unanimous support now among Democrats. Republicans are almost unanimous in the other direction,” IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said.

Becerra, a former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, congressman and state attorney general, “hasn’t offended any significant parts of the Democratic Party” and has united the party’s voters by “hammering away” against President Trump, DiCamillo said.

When asked to name one or two top priorities for the election, 40% of likely voters chose pushing back against the Trump administration, followed by 34% who cited reducing the cost of living. It’s a reversal from the mid-September survey, when 44% of likely voters said the cost of living was a top issue and 37% listed fighting Trump.

Both of those issues far outweighed the concerns of California voters about other issues that dominated the political discourse in past elections, including fighting crime, creating jobs and improving public education and healthcare.

Becerra’s supporters “are over the top on fighting Trump administration policies,” DiCamillo said. “I mean, 62% of his supporters state that as their greatest concern in this election. It’s really uniting the Democrats.”

The veteran pollster attributed the surge in anti-Trump sentiment in recent weeks to actions that “irritate” Democrats, such as the federal government’s quest to find illegal voting in California elections, continuing immigration raids and the president’s downplaying voter concerns about inflation and gas prices.

The survey reveals a generational split between voters: Those younger than 50 were more likely to name the cost of living as a top issue, while voters 50 and older were more likely to name Trump’s policies.

Latino voters were more evenly split between the two issues, and more focused on other needs than voters of other ethnic and racial groups. They were more likely to list priorities including reducing taxes, fighting crime and protecting immigrant communities than white, Black, or Asian American likely voters.

Days before voting ends in the Nov. 3 election, 53% of likely voters have a favorable view of Becerra and 41% see him unfavorably. Hilton’s image continues its upside-down trend: 56% view him unfavorably and 34% have a positive opinion.

“There’s been a lot of negative campaigning by Hilton, but it doesn’t seem to have had any impact,” DiCamillo said. “Becerra is just riding high on his image rating with the voters. This is the highest image rating we’ve measured for him.”

The survey asked voters whom they expected to win the race, regardless of which candidate they are supporting. Ninety percent of Democrats and 80% of voters not affiliated with a major party expected Becerra to win. Half of Republicans and 58% of those who identify as MAGA said they believed Hilton will win — a striking number in a state where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 and the GOP has not won a statewide race in 20 years.

“They are hoping against hope,” DiCamillo said.

If he wins Tuesday’s election to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, Becerra would become the first-ever Latino elected governor and the first Latino in that office in 150 years.

Becerra’s support among Latino and white voters closely mirrors that of the overall electorate, with 60% favoring him. Becerra received a warmer reception from Black and Asian American voters in the state, according to the poll.

Asked how they felt about the possibility of electing a Latino governor, just over a third of all likely voters and 45% of Latino voters said they felt “proud.” But majorities of both groups — 52% of Latino voters and 58% of likely voters — believe electing the state’s first Latino governor is either “not too important” or “not at all important.”

For better or worse, voters also have low expectations about the impact of a potentially historic election.

Sixty-one percent of likely Latino voters, and 57% of total voters surveyed, do not believe that having a Latino governor would reduce racial inequalities in the state. And similar numbers doubt it would worsen racial tensions.

Among Latino voters, 40% believed electing a Latino governor would ease fear in their communities, but 43% disagreed. The remainder had no opinion.

“While greater than 4 in 10 Latinos feel proud and think it is important to elect a Latino governor, they also recognize that it will take much more than a single elected official to ease the fears and difficulties experienced by the Latino immigrant community,” IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora said. “With Trump still in office and prices still high, Latino voters seem cautious yet hopeful about the new governor.”

The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from Oct. 19 to Sunday. Responses for the governor’s race poll came from a weighted sample of 1,477 respondents who already voted or were considered likely to vote in the November election, from a larger group of 2,787 registered voters throughout California. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction.

The race for mayor of Los Angeles is a dead heat as the campaign draws to a close, with a new poll showing incumbent Karen Bass erasing the double-digit lead previously held by Councilmember Nithya Raman.

Raman and Bass now each have 40% of likely L.A. voters in their camps, with 19% still undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 election, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Times.

The neck-and-neck contest is a big change from September, when Raman jumped out to an 11-percentage-point lead with support from 39% of likely voters compared with Bass at 28%.

It follows weeks of relentless attacks on Raman by Bass, whom some analysts had predicted would need to campaign more aggressively to close the gap with her challenger.

“It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close. She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive,” said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll.

Mayor Karen Bass greets phone banking volunteers at her South L.A. campaign headquarters.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

The survey released Wednesday was conducted online in English and Spanish with a sample of 2,197 likely city voters between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25. It has a margin of error of about three percentage points.

“The momentum in this race is with Karen Bass,” said Alex Stack, a spokesperson for Bass’ campaign. “Ever since Angelenos got their ballots, Nithya Raman has made headlines for all the wrong reasons — voters know they can’t trust her on public safety and other key issues.”

The Raman campaign cited high unfavorable numbers for Bass in the poll, and noted that the mayor “still can’t get ahead” in voter surveys.

“Bass hasn’t led a poll since August and an aggregate of all publicly available polls continues to show Nithya in the lead,” the Raman campaign said in a news release.

The leveling off of the race, along with the sharp decline in undecided voters, was spurred largely by conservative voters who chose Republican Spencer Pratt in the primary deciding to vote for the mayor in the runoff, said DiCamillo.

In the September Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll, 22% of Pratt voters said they planned to support Bass, while 16% said they favored Raman. That left a whopping 63% of Pratt voters undecided still.

In the new poll, Bass shot up to 41% of the Pratt vote, while Raman dropped to 14% and 45% were still undecided. Pratt hasn’t endorsed either candidate in the race and continues to bash both Raman and Bass on social media.

“The Pratt voters are the biggest insertion,” DiCamillo said. “The question remains, since we’re looking at Pratt voters, 45% remain undecided. Will they vote?”

Raman trailed Bass in every poll during the primary campaign. Neither candidate had ever cleared 40% in any of the polls conducted by Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times.

In the June 2 primary election, Bass received 34% of the vote while Raman received 29%. Pratt placed third with 26%.

In the new poll, Raman shed support in key areas, including among groups that previously appeared to be leaning toward her.

Councilmember and mayoral hopeful Nithya Raman, center, with supporters at Grand Park in downtown Los Angeles.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

In the September poll, Raman led among Latinos by 24 percentage points, 45% to Bass’ 21%. In the October poll, Bass was up to 40% and Raman fell to 43%, leaving the two within the margin of error for that key constituency.

DiCamillo said part of that change had to do with the likely voter population becoming more clear as the election neared, and older Latinos appeared to be a larger portion of the electorate.

“The Latino likely electorate now includes more older Latinos; that benefits Bass,” he said.

Black voters, long considered the backbone of Bass’ coalition, solidified behind the mayor, with 71% of likely Black voters supporting her compared with 13% supporting Raman. While Bass led among Black likely voters in the September poll, the already wide margin was much slimmer at that time, at 48% to 20%.

The poll also affirmed a widely held belief among the Bass camp that the San Fernando Valley would tilt toward the mayor over Raman.

Raman was leading in the Valley in the September poll 34% to 26%, but that number flipped on its head over the past month, with Bass now in front of Raman 44% to 33%.

Bass’ surge in the poll was more notable because the mayor’s favorable ratings — which have been in the tank since the January 2025 wildfires — remained underwater, with 65% of Angelenos viewing her unfavorably compared to 64% in the last poll. Only 32% had a positive view of the mayor, up four percentage points from September.

Bass’ attacks on Raman appeared to be having a significant effect on voters’ opinions of the challenger.

For the first time in a poll by Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times this cycle, Raman posted a higher unfavorable rating than favorable, with 49% of likely voters saying they viewed her unfavorably compared to 42% who had positive views of her.

The mayor, her campaign team and her surrogates have stepped up their offensive toward Raman, seizing on any opportunity to hammer the council member over remarks she has made on the campaign trail that they argue make the her unfit for the mayoralty and “not ready for prime time” — a slogan the mayor and her allies have deployed against their rival.

In early October, the Bass campaign slammed Raman over a video she posted with a leftist influencer in which she urged viewers to “stop fascist liars” as a photo of Bass flashed on the screen. Raman criticized both Bass and LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell in the video.

Bass accused the council member of calling the city’s police officers fascists. A Raman spokesperson said she was referring to the “Trump administration’s violent kidnappings” as fascist, not the mayor or police chief or officers. The story dominated headlines for days.

The Bass camp also needled Raman that week after photos surfaced of the council member attending a happy hour on the day federal immigration authorities began raids in Los Angeles last summer, though Raman said she attended a protest that same day.

The Bass campaign sent out a news release calling it “Nithya Raman’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week.”

The attacks continued the next week after Raman said during the mayoral debate that the “gold standard” for LAPD’s noncooperation with immigration enforcement took place during the tenure of former LAPD Police Chief Daryl F. Gates.

Gates, a controversial chief accused of racist remarks during his tenure, headed the department during the 1991 videotaped beating of Rodney King and Bass said Raman’s comments showed she was “not really familiar with L.A., especially the Black community.”

Raman retorted that Bass was twisting her words, but later apologized, saying that mentioning Gates was painful for people across L.A.

The poll also asked respondents for the top priorities for the next mayor to address. Reducing the number of homeless encampments was by far the top answer, chosen by 43% of likely voters.

Tied for second place among top concerns was ensuring public safety and building more affordable housing, selected by 29% each.

Protecting immigrant communities was the third-most cited concern, with 21%, followed by balancing the city budget at 17%.

Los Angeles County voters are concerned about a host of voter fraud issues that could disrupt the Nov. 3 general election, even though they have a high degree of confidence in local elections officials, according to a new poll funded by the nonprofit California Community Foundation.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents expressed concern that false rumors and misleading information online could confuse voters or make them believe that their vote won’t count, the poll found. Other top concerns included politicians interfering with the election and mail-in ballots getting lost, stolen or delayed.

Still, most of the voters surveyed expressed confidence in the county’s handling of election proceedings, with 68% saying L.A. County does an excellent or good job at running elections and counting ballots.

Once presented with information about how the county handles elections, that number rose to 72%. Around three-quarters of respondents also believe that the upcoming election will be fair, secure and accurate, the poll found.

The online poll was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 6 by Tulchin Research, a San Francisco-based public opinion firm. It surveyed 500 voters in L.A. County considered likely to cast ballots in the Nov. 3 election and has a margin of error of 4.4%.

“Voters feel good about the local officials running their elections. So, reinforcing the fact that that is who’s in charge of the election and how the process works is reassuring to folks,” said Ben Tulchin, the polling company’s president. “It … reduces their anxiety about some of the outside criticism that California, L.A. County faces.”

The poll was funded by the California Community Foundation, which awards millions of dollars in grants to local charitable groups, to support the “A Count You Can Trust Coalition,” an initiative aimed at enhancing trust in local elections.

Recent polling has suggested that potential federal interference in the Nov. 3 election is a top concern statewide for California voters. The local poll was administered to shed light on how L.A. County voters feel, said former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who co-chairs the A Count You Can Trust group with Miguel Santana, who leads the California Community Foundation.

“This is the epicenter of the California vote,” Villaraigosa said. “The concern is not as great as it is statewide. Here in L.A. County, people seem to trust the vote to a greater degree.”

A recent poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times, found that 61% of California voters identified interference by the Trump administration as a “major concern.” President Trump has fueled doubts over election integrity, spreading unverified claims of widespread voter fraud in blue states such as California.

Young voters and Latino voters expressed the lowest levels of confidence in how the county runs elections, the new poll found. The findings suggest those demographics need “a lot more reassurance” that elections are safe and that their votes matter, Tulchin said.

“It’s not surprising at all, and it means we’ve got work to do,” Villaraigosa said. “We got a lot of work to do to communicate to those people and to make it clear that, in fact, this vote can be trusted.”

Villaraigosa said he plans to focus his efforts on social media engagement and creating video content with poll workers to speak on how vote-counting works in the county.

The poll also asked respondents whether “things in Los Angeles County are going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?” Most — 62% — said wrong track, and 26% said right direction.

Among voter concerns in the upcoming election, 18% listed the economy, the cost of living and inflation as their biggest worry, followed by election integrity, fraud and interference at 17% of respondents. Concerns about Republicans and Trump “winning or retaining power” came in third, with 16% of respondents saying that is their biggest concern.

Homelessness and immigration, two issues that have been prominent the L.A. mayoral race between incumbent Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman, ranked low in the list of concerns for the surveyed voters. Tulchin noted that the focus of the survey was on election integrity, which could have had an effect on what issues were top of mind of respondents.

The survey findings indicate that L.A. County voters seem to trust the county more than voters statewide. Still, just over 30% of surveyed voters have a fair or poor view of how the county runs elections, Villaraigosa said.

“They’re concerned, but what we found in this poll is that there are a number of people who, while concerned, do trust this county,” he said.