Nears

Credit agency Fitch Ratings has dealt another blow to the troubled Skylink people mover train at Los Angeles International Airport, downgrading the project’s debt deeper into junk bond territory over the continued inability of the contractor and city’s airport department to complete the project.

The downgrade — to B-, from BB four months ago — “reflects the near certainty” that contractor LINXS won’t have the 2.25-mile train running by Dec. 8, leading to a “technical event of default and could give rights to either LINXS or Los Angeles World Airports … to issue project termination notices,” Fitch said in a report this week.

“It’s an uncommon action of severity,” Fitch analyst Seth Lehman told The Times. “We were under the view that there was a fair amount of cushion for LAWA and LINXS to settle on disputes, or for LINXS to show that they can have the trains run safely per this reliability test.”

The contractor has already said the train won’t be ready until February 2027 — or even later. In a statement to The Times Thursday, a spokesperson said that “LINXS remains committed to working with LAWA to successfully deliver the Automated People Mover and provide a world-class transportation system for the Los Angeles region.”

LINXS, an acronym for LAX Integrated Express Solutions, is a consortium that includes Fluor, Balfour Beatty, Alstom Transport USA, ACS Infrastructure Development, HNTB, Dragaos USA. LINXS declined comment beyond the statement.

LAWA officials had no immediate comment on the latest bond downgrade.

The deadline for the train’s completion is Dec. 8. While the airport or the contractor could technically terminate the contract at that time, Lehman noted that there’s a 120-day buffering period to allow for additional time to settle issues.

“After you get past that date, then the question becomes: Will both sides still want to work with each other, or just decide to find a path toward separation?” Lehman said about the months-long grace period.

The contractor and city airport officials have long been at odds.

LINXS filed a complaint against the city over the summer blaming the airport for the delays. Last month, the airport disputed multiple claims that the contractor made in its monthly brief on the project. And meetings between chief executives for the contractor, airport officials and others that began last year stopped in August.

Though officials say the project is 99% done, there are multiple unresolved issues. Agreements to implement solar energy on the project have not been signed with the city’s water and power departments, and the cause of technical problems with the train are still under investigation, according to a recent report from the contractor’s technical advisor.

In order for the train to run, it must undergo 30-days of consecutive testing without substantial issues and get sign-off from the airport and an outside assessor. That month-long testing period has continued to restart.

The $3.3 billion train is the most-anticipated feature of the airport’s $30 billion overhaul. It was initially slated to open in 2023 — before the World Cup and the Super Bowl and long before the 2028 Olympics. It’s now three years behind schedule and more than $1 billion beyond its original construction budget. When it does open, the airport said it will shuttle travelers between terminals, parking lots, the LAX/Metro Transit Center and a new rideshare lot.

Lehman noted that the train is hardly a novel project as many major airports have one, making the delays at LAX all the more confounding.

“Each time there’s a path towards opening, there’s a setback,” he said.

Saudi Arabia has boosted crude outputs to their highest levels since before the Iran war disrupted supplies in February, triggering a global energy and shipping crisis.

An OPEC report issued on Wednesday said the world’s biggest oil exporter pumped 10.563 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in October, up by over two million bpd from its September output.

That is the highest level since the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, when Saudi Arabia produced 10.882 million bpd.

Rising oil production by Saudi Arabia and Russia helped increase outputs for the OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other nations including Russia.

OPEC+ pumped 41.23 million bpd in October, up by about 2.04 million bpd from September, according to its monthly report. Russia’s output increased as US President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian energy and announced an “energy ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia in mid-October.

Fuel prices ease

Riyadh sharply increased its production in February ahead of US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s reported increase in oil production “could help ease some of the inflationary pressure facing American consumers”, Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University, told Al Jazeera.

“When more oil enters the global market, prices generally come under downward pressure, which can eventually translate into lower gasoline, transportation, and production costs in the United States,” he said. “However, higher Saudi production does not automatically mean lower prices at American gas stations.”

While US prices for petrol or gasoline fell below $4 a gallon for the first time in months this week, concerns over the stubbornly high cost of living drove the Democratic Party’s sweeping victories in US midterm elections last week.

Inflation has spiked since February, when it stood at 2.9 percent. Annual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) shot to a three-year high of 4.1 percent in May, when energy prices soared as the conflict closed off roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

Other producers managed to regain their supply positions, including the US.

However, the report noted a decline in imports by one of the world’s largest economies – Japan – where “crude imports fell sharply in September amid renewed disruptions to trade flows”.

The report data, while based on secondary sources, indicate that Gulf oil producers are recovering exports by using workarounds such as ship-to-ship transfers to bypass disruptions caused by the conflict.

“The UAE regained its position as the top supplier in September with a share of 49 percent, compared with 25 percent the previous month. The US was second with 28 percent, followed by Saudi Arabia with 14 percent,” the OPEC report noted.

The report indicated that Saudi Arabia’s exports have stabilised despite a secondary oil supply route – Saudi’s East-West Pipeline – coming under attack by Houthi rebels in neighbouring Yemen. The Houthis, who are fighting the Saudi-backed internationally recognised government in Aden, continued to target the pipeline this week.

Shokri explained that “one reason Saudi Arabia has been able to recover some of its exports is its East-West Pipeline, which allows crude oil to move across the country to the Red Sea port of Yanbu without passing through the Strait of Hormuz”.

While no longer an OPEC member, the United Arab Emirates remains a major supplier and “has a similar advantage through its pipeline to Fujairah, located outside the strait”, he said.

“The bigger picture is that Gulf countries are learning how costly dependence on a single maritime chokepoint can be,” Shokri warned. “They are looking for ways to make their exports more resilient, but Hormuz remains too important to the global energy market to be easily bypassed.”

Oil forecasts unchanged

Oil output in October was equivalent to 97 percent of the 42.72 million bpd produced by OPEC+ in February, according to Reuters.

OPEC left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged after cutting them for six straight months, and made no changes to its 2027 outlook.

The producer group expects global oil demand to rise by 2.55 million bpd next year to an average of 108.3 million bpd. It forecasts growth of 180,000 bpd in 2026.

The report also forecasted that Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina will drive growth in energy-related liquids production in 2027.

The report offered an optimistic outlook for the Middle East’s economic performance in the near term.

“In 2027, the region’s economy is expected to rebound and economic activity to recover, supported by a resilient non-oil sector and robust domestic demand,” it said.

The cyclone is due to make landfall on Wednesday, with more than 12 million people living along its projected path.

India is evacuating tens of thousands of people from its eastern coast as a strengthening Cyclone Arnab bears down on its coastal states.

The cyclone has intensified since Monday and is expected to make landfall by Wednesday morning.

The India Meteorological Department has issued a warning for the coastal states of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, saying the “very severe” cyclonic storm was centred only 260km (160 miles) southeast of the port city of Visakhapatnam, the most populous in Andhra Pradesh.

The department expects Arnab to turn northwest and cross the coast by 11:30am local time (06:00 GMT) on Wednesday, with sustained winds of 115-125km/h (71-78mph) and gusts of up to 140km/h (87mph).

Arnab formed over the Bay of Bengal, which is among the world’s main breeding grounds for tropical cyclones, frequently affecting India’s eastern coastal regions.

More than 12 million people live along the cyclone’s projected path, which runs inland and north across India, according to Andhra Pradesh’s disaster management authority.

Nearly 50,000 people had been moved to shelters from vulnerable areas of the state by Monday night, out of an estimated 400,000 in need of evacuation, the authority’s managing director, Prakhar Jain, told the Reuters news agency.

“Evacuation is continuing,” Jain said.

Railway authorities in the region said on social media that at least 12 trains had been cancelled in eastern India and services on 53 routes along the southern coast had been suspended for Tuesday and Wednesday.

In Odisha, authorities have announced plans to evacuate 48,000 people out of harm’s way, according to local newspaper The Hindu.

Authorities in neighbouring Nepal have advised tourists to stay away from high-altitude areas over concerns that Arnab could trigger heavy rain, snowstorms and avalanches in the Himalayas from Thursday night to Saturday.

The advisory comes after a Himalayan flash flood in August killed about 1,500 people in the country.

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Prep Rally. I’m Eric Sondheimer. The high school basketball season begins in two weeks, yet players have been playing non-stop since the summer. Let’s look at top players in the Southland for boys.

Players to watch

The Mission League is so loaded with talent in basketball that five teams — Sierra Canyon, Harvard-Westlake, Sherman Oaks Notre Dame, St. Francis and Crespi — are considered among the top 10 teams in the Southland.

Jordan Mize, Josh Lowery and JJ Sati-Grier are returnees from Sierra Canyon’s state championship team, and Houston Rolle transferred from Heritage Christian. That’s an impressive starting four.

St. Francis has twin towers 7-foot-5 Cherif Millogo and 7-0 Yann Kamagate. Harvard-Westlake has returning guards Pierce Thompson and Cole Holden. Notre Dame’s NaVorro Bowman is headed to UConn. Transfer King Rachal is 6-7 and committed to Utah State. Josiah Nance is committed to SMU. Crespi has twins Carter and Isaiah Barnes entering their senior years.

There’s been lots of movement in the Trinity League to Mater Dei. Isaiah Williamson left Los Alamitos, Ryan Doane left JSerra and Ender Berg left Legacy Christian, all ending up at Mater Dei, which could have a starting five of former transfer students.

All-star guard Gene Roebuck, a Cal commit, will have spent four years at La Mirada, which is an achievement itself. Coming off sensational freshman seasons are guards Will Conroy Jr. from Village Christian and Quali Giran from Long Beach Millikan.

Palisades remains the team to beat in the City Section with returnees Phillip Reed, EJ and OJ Popoola and Jack Levey.

Mahamadou Diop, a 6-11 center at San Gabriel Academy, has committed to San Diego State. Nick Welch Jr. is a 6-9 center at Rolling Hills Prep ready to become a big-time player. Chris Sanders is coming off a great junior season at Redondo Union.

Davey Harris at Windward, Ethan Hill at Brentwood, Chris Paul Jr. at Campbell Hall and the trio of Evan Willis, Shalen Sheppard and Van Moczydlowsky of Crossroads are part of a wicked Gold Coast League, which will be the toughest to predict a champion.

The best three-point shooting guard is back at Damien in Zaire Rasshan. Etiwanda has 6-3 junior Devin Mitchell. Grayson Coleman of Milken should have lots of games beyond 30 points. Oaks Christian returns its leading scorer, junior Brady Sullivan. Maxwell Scott from Corona del Mar averaged 21.7 points last season and is headed to Harvard. Guard Earl Bryson is at Crean Lutheran after starring at JSerra.

This is just a refresher of some names before games officially begin Nov. 13 in the City Section and Nov. 16 in the Southern Section. And, if some of your favorite players from last season are now at different schools, welcome to how you try to win a championship in 2026-27.

Carson quarterback Chris Fields III points toward the sky after his 71-yard touchdown run against San Pedro.

(Craig Weston / For The Times)

It’s week 10 and the last chance to seal up playoff spots or league championships.

Carson wrapped up the Marine League championship and the No. 1 seed for the City Section Open Division playoffs with a 35-0 win over San Pedro. Here’s the report.

Compton won its first league championship since 1979 winning the new Hub City League title. Compton finished the regular season 9-1.

San Juan HIlls delivered the biggest upset of the week, knocking off San Clemente, which played without injured quarterback Preston Beck. Here’s the report.

Tru Warrior Casas of Fairfax turned in a great individual performance, rushing for 331 yards and four touchdowns in a loss to Palisades.

Sophomore Asir Nembhard of Mater Dei set a school record with 349 yards rushing in a wild win over Orange Lutheran.

Santa Barbara’s Cade Mault accounted for all 13 of his team’s points in a 13-10 win over Westlake, getting an 85-yard touchdown reception, making the PAT and making field goals from 49 and 43 yards.

Culver City’s Nicholas Hoang passed for 480 yards and six touchdowns in a win over Torrance. Nathaniel Cadet of Marshall had seven touchdown passes in win over L.A. Wilson.

League championships are on the line in Bishop Amat at Sierra Canyon, Valencia vs. Hart at College of the Canyons, San Juan Hills at Mission Viejo. Another good game is unbeaten Mary Star at Carson, not to mention the annual East. L.A. Classic matching Garfield and Roosevelt at East Los Angeles College.

And St. John Bosco plays Mater Dei at Santa Ana Stadium in a game for second place in the Trinity League and a top four playoff berth in Division 1.

Here’s this week’s top 25 rankings by The Times.

Here’s the top individual performances.

Here’s this week’s 10 schedule.

Chemistry vs. talent

Quarterback Ryan Rakowski (left) and receiver Jalen Flowers before a Palos Verdes game praying. They have great chemistry on the football field.

(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)

There’s debate: What’s more important, chemistry or talent?

In regards to quarterbacks and receivers, it’s pretty clear chemistry is a must, with both being able to anticipate and understand each other’s moves.

Here’s a look at some of the top duos this season.

The Southern Section flag football playoffs continue, but there’s still no sign any team can offer competition to unbeaten JSerra (25-0).

Here’s this week’s matchups.

The only upset in the opening round of Division 1 was Lakewood St. Joseph defeating No. 4 Huntington Beach.

Cross country

At the Mt. SAC Invitational, Sabina Cruz of Westlake stamped herself as a CIF title contender with a win in the girls team sweepstakes race in 16:35.1.

Redondo Union’s Mario Montoya ran a scorching 13:43.5 to top the boys races.

Crescenta Valley had the best team score in boys. Great Oak was second in girls.

Power of grandparents

The Reis twins, Christian (left) and Weston, are juniors for Palos Verdes and cheered on by grandparents.

(Nick Koza / For The Times)

Grandparents sitting in the football bleachers offer moments of magic at high school football games.

For a look at their loyalty and impact, here’s a look at the grandparents of Palos Verdes twins Christian and Weston Reis.

Notes . . .

Outfielder Matti Di Maggio of Dos Pueblos has reclassified from class of 2029 to class of 2028. He was on The Times’ all-star baseball team last season as a freshman and won a gold medal playing for the USA 15U national team. Now he’ll be considered a junior this spring….

Tresbien Caraway has resigned after 11 years as basketball coach at New Roads….

Mahamadou Diop, a 6-foot-11 center from San Gabriel Academy, has committed to San Diego State….

Ender Berg, a 6-11 transfer from Legacy Christian, and Ryan Doane, a 6-8 transfer from JSerra, will be eligible at Mater Dei beginning Christmas Day….

Junior center fielder Dane Disney from Oaks Christian has committed to UCLA….

Zain Majeed, a 6-8 senior at Mater Dei, has committed to Princeton….

Long Beach Wilson’s boys’ water polo team did not apply for a Southern Section playoff spot as the program deals with a hazing incident….

UCLA volleyball All-American Brandon Taliaferro, who is a 1996 graduate of San Clemente High, is the Tritons’ new boys volleyball coach. He also served as an assistant coach at UCLA….

Junior pitcher Christian Reis of Palos Verdes has committed to Oregon State….

Mark Wulfemeyer, a legendary high school basketball player for Troy High in the 1970s, has died in Hawaii. He was 70. He held the state scoring record from 1974 through 1979. Here’s a story from 1991 describing his journey in basketball and baseball. His grandson, Warren, is a top baseball player at Santa Margarita….

St. Francis athletic director Matt Luderer has died after a long fight with brain cancer. He was 54. Luderer took over at St. Francis in 2013 after being athletic director at Crespi…..

Joe Kelly, who guided Palos Verdes and Peninsula to cross-country success in the 1980s and 1990s, has died….

Junior quarterback Josiah Boyd of Vista Del Lago has committed to UCLA….

Outfielder/pitcher Jesse Mendoza of Corona Centennial has committed to Cal Baptist….

From the archives: Bryce Young

Quarterback Bryce Young in 2019 when he was selected the Gatorade state player of the year at Mater Dei.

(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)

Quarterback Bryce Young has gone from Mater Dei to Heisman Trophy winner at Alabama to No. 1 pick of the Carolina Panthers to star quarterback for the Panthers.

Here’s a story from 2020 about his father discussing the perils of the college recruiting process.

Here’s a story from 2019 how Young became a ground-breaking quarterback at Mater Dei.

Mater Dei unveiled its updated Heisman Lane campus sign that added Bryce Young.

(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)

Here’s a story from 2022 when Young came back to Mater Dei to celebrate winning the Heisman Trophy.

Recommendations

From the Star-Telegram, a story on Texas approving the 35-second clock for high school basketball.

From Elevenwarriors, a story on former Mission Viejo quarterback Luke Fahey set to star for Ohio State.

From Chron.com, a story in Texas about coaches getting stipends cut if they don’t get a commercial driver’s license to help with lack of bus drivers.

From NFHS.org, a story about high schools needing emergency action plans and AEDs for sports competitions.

From the Los Angeles Times, a story on the “Marina Brewers” playing in the World Series.

Tweets you might have missed

Until next time….

Have a question, comment or something you’d like to see in a future Prep Rally newsletter? Email me at eric.sondheimer@latimes.com, and follow me on Twitter at @latsondheimer.

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WASHINGTON — In September, just weeks before Americans were set to vote in this year’s midterm elections, a sudden panic over the dangers posed by artificial intelligence caught the White House off guard. A whistleblower had gained viral attention warning the technology could soon pose an existential threat.

President Trump was quick to dismiss concerns, evoking urgency in the U.S. race to achieve global dominance in superintelligence. He rejected calls to negotiate guardrails on the most advanced AI models with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, weeks later, during a prime opportunity to do so in Washington.

Privately, the president expressed concern that public hysteria over AI could jolt markets that have become excessively concentrated in AI-related stocks. He had already seen fresh polling that showed widespread bipartisan opposition to the boom in construction of AI data centers, a push by Trump that has cannibalized chips and energy from other sectors of the economy, driving up costs.

Now, on the campaign trail in the final days before the vote, Trump is vowing to expand a “golden age” of prosperity through the end of his presidency. But experts say his policies on AI have set the U.S. economy up for a period of tremendous risk over the next two years.

Some of the world’s leading financiers are sounding increasingly alarmed about an AI bubble. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned that AI stocks have become detached from financial fundamentals, pushing markets to precarious highs. Ken Griffin, the world’s richest hedge fund owner, said last week that AI is “almost certainly” fueling a market bubble that could be on the verge of a burst.

Economists warn that Trump has overseen fiscal policy that would give the federal government fewer tools than it has had in the past to respond to a crisis.

“Trump could easily run into a financial crisis before his term is up,” said Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard. “It is entirely plausible to have a 30% — or more — drop in the stock market, and in the context of an economy so dependent on AI, this in turn could easily lead to a recession and widespread financial distress.”

Spending on data center infrastructure last winter and spring accounted for nearly all U.S. economic growth, according to independent analyses. Without it, growth would have slowed to a mere fraction of a percentage point, leaving the economy nearly stagnant and flirting with recession.

The Nasdaq 100 has about 70% of its index weight in companies that depend on AI, from semiconductor manufacturers and Big Tech giants to cloud platforms and software providers. Anthropic, one of the top AI industry leaders, plans an initial public offering next month, while its chief rival, OpenAI, expects to go public next year.

From left, Chris Painter, president of the Model Evaluation and Threat Research, Marius Hobbhahn, CEO of Apollo Research, Paul Ohm, professor of law at the Georgetown University Law Center, Kurt Gaudette, senior vice president of Dragos, and Daniel Kokotajlo, executive director of the AI Futures Project, are sworn in to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Disaster Management, District of Columbia, and Census hearing titled “Rogue AI: Securing the Homeland Against AI Agent Attacks,” in Dirksen Senate Office Building on Wednesday, September 30, 2026.

(Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

“Because government finances are already strained, with the national debt on a patently unsustainable trajectory, there is no guarantee of a sharp drop in long-term borrowing rates for the government,” Rogoff continued. “So the options for bailing out the financial sector, or fighting recession, could be much more constrained than during the global financial crisis.”

While doubling down on the promise of an untested, frontier technology, Trump’s other economic policies may be hobbling its growth. Tariffs have raised the costs of imported chips, servers, networking equipment, metals and electrical components, and visa restrictions have tied the hands of industry leaders trying to secure the world’s best talent. Runaway federal deficits have driven long-term bond interest rates, adding pressure on AI firms already strapped with debt.

Servaas Storm, an economist closely following the AI sector at the Delft University of Technology, said the industry is already facing severe financial headwinds that could precipitate a panic.

Prices for energy, chips and minerals are driving up the cost of doing business, while early AI adopters such as Microsoft, Meta and Walmart are scaling back its use as employees spend too much time correcting errors, cleaning up low-quality output and addressing security lapses.

Slower adoption could further complicate the search for revenue, particularly for companies already struggling to monetize the technology. For now, hyperscalers are shouldering the cost of financing frontier AI labs that, as Storm put it, “do not have a credible path to profitability.”

“There is indeed an AI bubble in the stock market and in data center construction, which could pop rather soon, as rising debt loads and elevated interest rates could prove too much to sustain it,” Storm said. “That moment is not imminent, but it is approaching — and it will very likely happen before the end of Trump’s presidency.”

An economy already under duress from Trump’s other economic policies — from tariffs and tax cuts to the Iran war — could precipitate further pain, said Darrell Duffie, a finance professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

Leading AI companies are already running “day-after” drills in anticipation of an AI-related crisis within the next year, according to Axios.

Americans head into election day deeply pessimistic about the economy, with 77% rating it fair or poor, according to a Fox News poll. A separate CNBC survey found that just 34% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 35% of Republicans disapprove — a record high within his own party.

Inflation has fallen sharply from its 9% peak in 2022, during a pandemic-era surge, reaching 2.9% by the end of Biden’s presidency. Under Trump, it has climbed once again to 3.7%, driven by rising energy, transportation and housing costs — among the top concerns for voters entering next month’s vote.

Persistent inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, squeezing borrowers. And those rates — paired with high government spending and concerns over mounting deficits — have pressured the bond market, pushing 10-year Treasury yields to levels not seen since the early 2000s.

“Financial crises, by their nature, are virtually impossible to predict,” Duffie said, asked whether he shared concerns of a potential AI bubble.

“If we know we are going to be in a crisis soon,” he added, “markets advance the crisis to now.”