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The price of resale housing in Spain ended the second quarter of 2026 with a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, according to the Fotocasa Real Estate Index.

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Between April and June, prices also rose by 4%, bringing the average to €3,133 per square metre in June. Spain’s resale home prices have hit new record highs in four of the first six months of the year and are now at their highest level in the past 21 years.

Fotocasa’s head of research and spokesperson, María Matos, attributes this trend to a sharp imbalance between strong demand and limited supply. She explains that the shortage of available properties, financing conditions and demographic pressure in the main markets are driving prices up and making it more difficult to access housing.

According to Matos, “the result is ever faster price growth that makes it harder to access housing and widens the affordability gap for a large proportion of households.”

Fotocasa’s data is in line with the trend shown by statistics from the National Statistics Institute (INE), although the two use different methodologies.

While the property portal analyses the asking prices of advertised listings, the INE measures the prices of homes that are ultimately sold. According to the institute, the overall price of housing rose by 12.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, while second-hand homes became 13.5% more expensive.

Murcia leads the increases

Prices rose during the second quarter in 16 autonomous communities.

The Region of Murcia recorded the largest rise, at 8.6%, followed by Cantabria (6.3%), the Valencian Community (5.9%), Castile and León (5.6%) and La Rioja (5.1%). The Canary Islands was the only region where prices fell, with a drop of 0.7%.

On an annual basis, Murcia once again came out on top with an increase of 28%, ahead of Cantabria (20%), the Valencian Community (19.8%), Asturias (17%) and Andalusia (16.9%).

The report also highlights that “June 2026 ended with 14 autonomous communities posting double-digit year-on-year increases, compared with 11 in 2025, six in 2024 and seven in 2023”.

The Balearic Islands and Madrid remain the most expensive regions to buy a resale home, at €5,441 and €5,410 per square metre respectively.

They are followed by the Basque Country (€3,925), Catalonia (€3,418) and the Canary Islands (€3,374). At the opposite end of the scale are Extremadura (€1,352), Castile-La Mancha (€1,407) and Castile and León (€1,816).

Provinces, provincial capitals and major cities

Forty-six provinces recorded quarterly increases, with León (10.7%), Palencia (10.2%) and Murcia (8.6%) seeing the sharpest rises, while Cuenca, Huelva, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Ávila were the only ones where prices fell.

The Balearic Islands remains the most expensive province to buy a resale home, at €5,441 per square metre, followed by Madrid (€5,410), Guipúzcoa (€4,695) and Málaga (€4,690). Jaén continues to be the most affordable, at €1,112 per square metre.

Among provincial capitals, León recorded the largest quarterly increase, while Donostia-San Sebastián maintains the highest average price in Spain, at €7,158 per square metre, ahead of Madrid (€6,630), Barcelona (€5,368), Palma (€5,275), Málaga (€4,320) and Bilbao (€4,157).

At municipal level, Santa Eulària des Riu in Ibiza tops the national ranking with €8,491 per square metre, followed by Sant Antoni de Portmany (€8,284) and Eivissa (€7,441). In Madrid, the Salamanca district reaches €10,786 per square metre, while Sarrià-Sant Gervasi leads the way in Barcelona at €7,540 per square metre.

A year ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump struck a trade deal in Turnberry, Scotland, shaking hands under the spotlight of the world’s media after weeks of trade disputes.

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Defended by the Commission as the best deal it could secure, the agreement imposed 15 percent US tariffs on imports from the EU, while the EU committed to removing its duties on most US industrial products.

The Europeans also pledged to invest €520 billion in the US and purchase €700 billion in US energy by 2028, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil and nuclear energy products.

The Turnberry agreement was supposed to draw a line under the dispute. Instead, it opened a new chapter.

Over the past year, Trump has repeatedly threatened the EU with new tariffs, slowing the implementation of the agreement on the European side, where lawmakers froze its ratification. Following negotiations between the EU’s co-legislators, the bloc eventually removed its tariffs on 1 July.

On the US side, the process has been no smoother. The White House had to adopt new tariffs after the US Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that the duties imposed on US trading partners in 2025 were illegal.

The new tariffs, introduced under a different legal basis, are set to expire at the end of this week, on 24 July, unless Congress extends them – a prospect considered unlikely with the midterm elections approaching.

As the Turnberry deal marks its first anniversary, here are four things to know about the state of transatlantic trade relations.

1. Trade with the US increased in 2025

Despite the tariff war, transatlantic trade has not shrunk. Quite the opposite: EU-US goods and services trade rose by 4.5 percent to €1.8 trillion in 2025, as companies rushed shipments ahead of Trump’s tariffs, offsetting the slowdown later in the year.

Since January 2025, US importers have had to pay around €31 billion in additional duties, compared with €7 billion in pre-tariff years.

Following the Supreme Court ruling, however, some have already been refunded. US data released in mid-July shows that $81 billion was paid back for tariffs imposed globally on the country’s trading partners.

2. Europe is on track to meet its investment pledges

According to the European Commission, the EU will keep its promise to invest massively in the US. In early 2025, it reported that EU companies had pledged €242 billion in investments across various US sectors, including cars, IT, chemicals and food.

Regarding energy investments, an EU senior official said the €700 billion target will be exceeded. The Commission said that, in 2025 alone, EU buyers imported energy products and signed deals worth more than $250 billion.

As the Iran war broke out and the EU phased out Russian gas supplies, purchases of US LNG and oil reached record levels. New nuclear projects will also be carried out in cooperation with US partners.

3. Negotiations continue on exemptions, steel and aluminium

The EU-US trade saga is far from over. Brussels and Washington have started negotiating new tariff exemptions for EU goods. The Turnberry agreement referred to these future discussions, but the White House wanted the EU to implement its side of the agreement before talks could begin.

Last autumn, the Commission, together with European businesses, drew up a list of hundreds of products for which it hopes to restore pre-existing tariff levels. The list, recently transmitted to the US side, covers around €150 billion worth of EU exports and includes iconic products such as Roquefort, olive oil, wines and spirits.

The Europeans also hope to make progress on steel and aluminium. The US still imposes 50 percent tariffs on imports from trading partners worldwide. However, the Commission expects the discussions to be challenging, as the White House wants to bring production back to the US while also dealing with massive Chinese overcapacity.

4. The US is preparing new tariffs

Following the Supreme Court ruling, the White House had to rely on a new legal basis to impose tariffs reaching the 15 percent ceiling set by the Turnberry agreement. But those tariffs expire on Friday, and the US is already looking for new ways to impose additional duties.

European officials therefore expect the White House to introduce new tariffs targeting forced labour and overcapacity following investigations launched under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The forced labour tariffs have already been announced and are expected to come first, despite the EU arguing that it already has legislation banning forced labour.

“Of course we do not agree with the findings on forced labour, and we’ve made that very clear to our United States counterparts,” an EU senior official said. “But the main objective is to make sure that the agreement is respected and that our companies can benefit from the stability and predictability that was set out there.”

So as long as those future tariffs don’t exceed the 15 percent cap, the EU will not go against them.

The Commission is also closely monitoring a US investigation into German drug pricing under Section 301, which could also lead to punitive tariffs if the US Trade Department finds that “persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products by Germany is unreasonable or discriminatory and burdens or restricts US commerce”.

BETA Technologies (BETA) introduced a new hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft designed for military logistics missions at the Farnborough International Airshow, marking the company’s latest push into the defense market.

The new aircraft, called the MV250, is an autonomous hybrid-electric VTOL

Azerbaijan’s relationship with Germany is shifting beyond energy, with the two countries deepening ties across industry and logistics as Europe works to diversify its supply chains away from Russia.

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“Azerbaijan is gradually ceasing to be perceived by Germany solely as an energy supplier and is increasingly becoming part of a new Eurasian industrial and logistics architecture,” said Orkhan Yolchuyev, director of the CASPIA Analytical Center.

Bilateral trade between the two countries reached around €1.7 billion in 2025, driven by German exports of industrial equipment, machinery and transport systems, Yolchuyev said.

Over 250 German companies now operate in Azerbaijan, spanning manufacturing, construction, logistics and energy.

The shift has accelerated since Azerbaijan began supplying gas directly to Germany and Austria in early 2026, part of a wider European push to reduce dependence on Russian energy following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Beyond energy

The real change, Yolchuyev said, is not in the trade figures but in what they represent.

“[They] indicate that bilateral relations are evolving toward a higher level of industrial cooperation,” he said, pointing to Germany’s need for new export markets and more resilient supply networks.

German companies already active in Azerbaijan could soon be drawn into its reconstruction programmes and expanding industrial zones, particularly in engineering, transport, renewable energy and advanced manufacturing.

Much of this shift runs through the Middle Corridor, the transport route linking China and Central Asia with Europe via the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has given the route new urgency, as European firms hunt for alternatives that insulate their supply chains from disruption.

Azerbaijan sits at its logistical centre, with sea and rail links increasingly central to the transcontinental route.

Yolchuyev said the corridor’s value lies less in cargo volumes than in what it carries.

“The higher the share of high value-added products, such as automotive components, industrial machinery, electrical equipment, electronics or chemical products, the greater the economic efficiency of the route,” he said, pointing to the expansion of the Port of Baku and the Alat Free Economic Zone as drivers of new manufacturing and logistics investment.

Energy still at the core

Energy remains central despite the widening scope of cooperation. Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a dependable gas supplier and, since early 2026, has been sending gas directly to Germany and Austria.

Farid Shukurlu, a non-resident fellow at the Research Institute for European and American Studies, said Russia’s invasion marked a turning point.

“Traditionally, economic relations between Azerbaijan and Germany were concentrated in a limited number of sectors, including heavy machinery, automobiles and pharmaceuticals,” he said.

“However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine fundamentally reshaped the bilateral economic relationship.”

Within five months of Azerbaijan’s first crude shipment to Germany, the country had exported 360,300 tonnes of crude oil and petroleum products worth approximately $210.9 million (€196mn), Shukurlu said.

He believes Azerbaijan could eventually become a transit route for Kazakh oil and Turkmen gas bound for Germany and other European markets.

Germany’s shift carries weight given its past reliance on Russian gas. Italy remains the largest European buyer of Azerbaijani gas via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, but Germany is now moving in the same direction.

Manfred Scherer, mayor of the Verbandsgemeinde Sprendlingen-Gensingen, a collective municipality in Germany’s Mainz-Bingen district, recalled meeting Azerbaijan’s current energy minister, Parviz Shahbazov, during his time as ambassador to Germany.

“Economic relations between Germany and Azerbaijan have developed positively in recent years. There is strong potential to further strengthen cooperation,” Scherer said.

“I have fond memories of the visit of the current minister of energy, Parviz Shahbazov, to our municipality during his time as ambassador of Azerbaijan to Germany,” he continued.

“At that time, we discussed opportunities to deepen our relations through a municipal partnership and to strengthen cooperation between our regions.”

A wider European shift

Germany’s pivot fits a broader European turn toward the South Caucasus and Central Asia, partly in support of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, which could unlock further energy diversification and regional connectivity.

The high-level visits have piled up. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the partnership with Azerbaijan “matters greatly to the European Union” and had “real momentum”.

European Council President António Costa travelled to Baku for talks on deeper EU re-engagement, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas visited in May.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Slovak President Peter Pellegrini have also held high-level talks with President Ilham Aliyev.

Published on
20/07/2026 – 10:53 GMT+2

Oil prices jumped in early trading as the US announced further attacks for a ninth consecutive night. Iran has responded to the strikes by targeting US allies across the Middle East.

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Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 3.2% to $90.95 per barrel, while US benchmark crude climbed 2.8% to $84.04 per barrel.

“The US and Iran continue to exchange strikes, which are proving to be deadly for both sides,” ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a commentary on Monday.

“If this escalation goes unchecked, we could return to an environment of widespread attacks across the Persian Gulf,” they added.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil transport, has nearly ground to a halt, adding to pressure on supplies, they noted.

Elsewhere, AI-related shares including chipmaking stocks declined on Friday, pulling world markets lower. Pledges of huge spending on AI are fuelling worries the sector may be in a bubble, and many investors have opted to sell to lock in profits from recent big gains.

“The return to war in the Strait of Hormuz may start to weigh more heavily on financial markets before too long, especially if even strong tech earnings reports continue to be met with scepticism,” Jonas Goltermann, chief markets economist at Capital Economics wrote in a note Monday.

Markets were also shaken by the rollout of another powerful Chinese AI model, this time by Beijing-based Moonshot AI.

The impact of the new Kimi K3 open-source AI model was similar to when China’s “ DeepSeek moment” rattled world markets in early 2025. It was viewed as another sign of how lower-cost, capable Chinese AI models are increasingly challenging rivals like Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s GPT.

Additional sources • AP

Eurostat’s final figures, published on Friday, showed annual inflation easing from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June, the first decline since prices began accelerating in January, less than a week before the ECB’s Governing Council announces its policy decision on Thursday and decides whether June’s first interest-rate hike in nearly three years should be followed by another increase.

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The details of the release lean towards a pause.

Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, slowed from 2.6% to 2.4%, energy inflation cooled from 10.8% to 8.5% and services eased from 3.5% to 3.2%, with the headline rate falling in 22 of the EU’s 27 member states.

Among the eurozone’s big four economies, Germany stood at 2.4%, France at 2%, Italy at 3% and Spain at 3.6%.

The numbers matter because of what came before.

In June, the ECB lifted its deposit facility rate from 2% to 2.25%, its first increase in nearly three years, after the war in Iran drove eurozone inflation to 3.2% in May, the highest reading since September 2023.

A reignited Iran war

The complication is that the shock behind that hike has returned.

Oil neared $120 a barrel in March before sliding to around $72 following an interim peace agreement at the end of June, but the truce has frayed badly this month.

The US and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes, Tehran has attacked ships and threatened regional energy exports, and Washington has reimposed sanctions and stepped up its naval blockade, pushing Brent crude back up to $87 a barrel on Friday.

That resurgence has revived the possibility of a surprise hike on Thursday, according to ING, although the bank still expects a hold, with a second increase more realistic in September.

Renewed conflict involving Iran

The complication is that the shock behind that June rate hike has returned.

Oil prices neared $120 a barrel in March before sliding to around $72 following an interim peace agreement at the end of June. However, the truce has frayed badly this month.

The United States and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes, Tehran has attacked commercial shipping and threatened regional energy exports, while Washington has reimposed sanctions and tightened its naval blockade, pushing Brent crude back up to $87 a barrel on Friday.

The renewed escalation has revived the possibility of a surprise rate hike on Thursday, according to ING, although the bank still expects the ECB to hold rates steady, viewing a second increase as more likely in September.

July is also not a forecasting meeting, giving policymakers cover to wait for updated economic projections before taking further action.

What Lagarde has signalled

Speaking at the ECB’s Sintra forum a few weeks ago, ECB President Christine Lagarde insisted June’s rate hike was not an “insurance hike” but a response to a genuine inflation problem. She noted that the ECB’s projections showed inflation returning to its 2% target only in late 2027, and only if monetary policy was tightened further.

Lagarde also refused to pre-commit to a policy path, saying “forward guidance is not in the cards” and that decisions would continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by incoming economic data.

The ECB remains the only major Western central bank to have actually pulled the trigger.

The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in June, at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair, although his hawkish tone unsettled markets.

The Bank of England also left its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, with two policymakers preferring an increase to 4.0%, while the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1.0%.

Iran accelerated oil exports through Asia after the United States temporarily eased restrictions in mid-June, allowing the country to move an estimated 70 million barrels of crude before sanctions were reinstated, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, citing analysts and shipping data.