JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — To tax tips or not? That is a question that will confront lawmakers in states across the U.S. as they convene for work next year.
The Trump administration is urging states to follow its lead by enacting a slew of new tax breaks for individuals and businesses, including deductions for tips and overtime wages, automobile loans and business equipment.
In some states, the new federal tax breaks will automatically apply to state income taxes unless legislatures opt out. But in many other states, where tax laws are written differently, the new tax breaks won’t appear on state tax forms unless legislatures opt in.
In states that don’t conform to the federal tax changes, workers who receive tips or overtime, for example, will pay no federal tax on those earnings but could still owe state taxes on them.
States that adopt all of Trump’s tax cuts could provide hundreds of millions of dollars in annual savings to certain residents and businesses. But that could financially strain states, which are being hit with higher costs because of new Medicaid and SNAP food aid requirements that also are included in the GOP’s big bill that Trump signed this summer.
Most states begin their annual legislative sessions in January. To retroactively change tax breaks for 2025, lawmakers would need to act quickly so tax forms could be updated before people begin filing. States also could apply the changes to their 2026 taxes, a decision requiring less haste.
So far, only a few states have taken votes on whether to adopt the tax breaks.
“States in general are approaching this skeptically,” said Carl Davis, research director at the nonprofit Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.
Treasury presses states to act
The bill Trump signed July 4 contains about $4.5 trillion of federal tax cuts over 10 years.
It creates temporary tax deductions for tips, overtime and loan interest on new vehicles assembled in the U.S. It boosts a tax deduction for older adults. And it temporarily raises the cap on state and local tax deductions from $10,000 to $40,000, among other things. The law also provides numerous tax breaks to businesses, including the ability to immediately write off 100% of the cost of equipment and research.
Forty-one states levy individual income taxes on wages and salaries. Forty-four states charge corporate income taxes.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this month called on those states “to immediately conform” to the federal tax cuts and accused some Democratic-led states that haven’t done so of engaging in “political obstructionism.” Though Bessent didn’t mention it, many Republican-led states also have not decided whether to implement the tax deductions.
“By denying their residents access to these important tax cuts, these governors and legislators are forcing hardworking Americans to shoulder higher state tax burdens, robbing them of the relief they deserve and exacerbating the financial squeeze on low- and middle-income households,” Bessent said.
Some tax analysts contend that there’s more for states to consider. The tax break on tips, for example, could apply to nearly 70 occupational fields under a proposed rule from the Internal Revenue Service. But that would still exclude numerous low-wage workers, said Jared Walczak, vice president of state projects at the nonprofit Tax Foundation.
“Lawmakers need to consider whether these are worth the cost,” Walczak said.
Tips and overtime tax breaks
Because of the way state tax laws are written, the federal tax breaks for tips and overtime wages would have carried over to just seven states: Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon and South Carolina. But Colorado opted out of the state tax break for overtime shortly before the federal law was enacted.
Michigan this fall became the first — and so far only — state to opt into the tax breaks for tips and overtime wages, effective in 2026. The overtime tax exemption is projected to cost the state nearly $113 million and the tips tax break about $45 million during its current budget year, according to the state treasury department.
Michigan lawmakers offset that by decoupling from five federal corporate tax changes the state’s treasury estimated would have reduced state tax revenues by $540 million this budget year.
Republican state Rep. Ann Bollin, chair of the Michigan House Appropriations Committee, said the state could not afford to embrace all the tax cuts while still investing in better roads, public safety and education.
“The best path forward is to have more money in people’s pockets and have less regulation — and this kind of moved in that direction,” she said.
Arizona could be among the next states to act. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has called upon lawmakers to adopt the tax breaks for tips, overtime, seniors and vehicle loans, and follow the federal government by also increasing the state’s standard deduction for individual income taxpayers. Republican state House leaders said they stand ready to pass the tax cuts when their session begins Jan. 12.
Corporate tax breaks
In addition to Michigan, lawmakers in Delaware, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island have passed measures to block some or all of the corporate tax cuts from taking effect in their states.
A new Illinois law decoupling from a portion of the corporate tax changes could save the state nearly $250 million, said Democratic state Sen. Elgie Sims, chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. He said that could help ensure continued funding for schools, healthcare and other vital services.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, an outspoken Democratic opponent of Trump, also cited budget concerns for rejecting the corporate tax cut provision. He said states already stand to lose money because of other provisions in Trump’s big bill, such as a requirement to cover more of the costs of running the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP.
“The decoupling is an effort to try to hold back the onslaught from the federal government to make sure that we can support programs like the one we’re announcing today,” Pritzker told reporters at a December event publicizing a grant to address homelessness in central Illinois.
Lieb writes for the Associated Press. AP writer John O’Connor in Springfield, Ill., contributed to this report.
DETROIT — In the frantic final firefight of the 1992 presidential campaign, this battered industrial city may have been ground zero.
In the last days before today’s vote, President Bush and Bill Clinton crossed paths over and over again through a narrow band of critical Rust Belt and Great Lakes states–from New Jersey and Pennsylvania to Ohio and Wisconsin. But no state occupied more of their attention than Michigan.
Into this battlefield, the two major contenders have fired television and radio ads, mailings, surrogate speakers and repeated visits of their own–to the point where even veteran local observers have been overwhelmed. Their efforts–reinforced by Ross Perot’s national television barrage–have put the campaign on everyone’s lips.
“There’s a lot of strong feelings on it this year,” said LeAnn Kirrmann, a Republican activist from Grand Ledge, as she waited for Bush to arrive at a rally near here Sunday.
That appears to be the case across the nation, as voters render their verdict on this stormy, vituperative and often path-breaking campaign. Polls show the percentage of voters paying close attention to the campaign has soared this fall, and most experts expect a large turnout–a dramatic conclusion to a campaign that has regularly produced moments of high drama.
“It’s a mortal lock that turnout is going up,” said GOP pollster Bill McInturff.
After tightening significantly last week, national polls show Clinton again holding a comfortable lead over Bush, with Perot lagging behind. Few observers are entirely certain that a campaign that has been consistently unpredictable doesn’t hold one or two more surprises. But a Bush comeback at this stage would rank as the most dramatic reversal of fortune in the final hours of a presidential race.
In their final maneuvering, both Bush and Clinton targeted this state for contrasting reasons that underscore the length of the odds facing the President.
The widespread economic uneasiness in Michigan–symbolized by the continuing turmoil of General Motors Corp., which led to a management shake-up Monday–has always made the state an uphill climb for Bush despite its Republican leanings in recent presidential campaigns.
It remains a daunting challenge for the President now: The latest statewide tracking poll for a Detroit TV station, released Monday night, showed Clinton leading with 46%, Bush with 30% and Ross Perot at 16%.
Facing such numbers, Bush might have written off Michigan in a different year to spend his last campaign hours elsewhere. But the President has been forced to pound relentlessly at the state because there appears to be no way he can win the necessary 270 electoral votes without Michigan’s 18.
That reality defines Clinton’s stake in the state. Although Clinton–with his strong base on both coasts–can probably win today without carrying Michigan, he has invested so heavily here precisely because he knows Bush cannot.
“That’s Clinton’s great advantage,” said Democratic strategist Tad Devine. “He can focus on trying to take just one link out of Bush’s chain.”
Clinton’s intense focus on Michigan represents the reversal of a traditional Republican tactic. Because the GOP base in the South and West left Democrats so little room to maneuver in past presidential campaigns, Republicans have typically been able to dictate the battlefield in the election’s final hours.
In past years, the Republicans devoted enormous resources to a single conservative-leaning state–usually Ohio–confident that if they won there, the Democrats could not reach an Electoral College majority.
This year, though, it is Clinton who has the lead and the flexibility to choose where to fight. He has selected Michigan as his version of Ohio.
“That is a pretty fair analogy,” said David Wilhelm, Clinton’s campaign manager. “Michigan is a linchpin to our Electoral College strategy; it is a state that if we win, it destroys almost any chance that Bush will be reelected.”
With the state playing such a central role in the strategies of both candidates, their efforts here have been enormous. “Some of us,” said Don Tucker, the Democratic chairman in populous Oakland County, “have started to think Clinton and Bush are running for President of Michigan.”
When Clinton arrived in Detroit on Monday for a lunchtime airport rally, it marked his third visit to the area in five days and his sixth trip to the state in two weeks.
On Sunday, Bush roused the faithful with a scathing attack on Clinton at a rally in Auburn Hills, just north of here–his third run at the state in eight days.
Last Thursday, voters from around the state were able to ask Bush questions in a televised town meeting from Grand Rapids. The next night Clinton flew to the Detroit suburbs to hold his own televised town meeting.
When Clinton forces made their final buy of television time last week, they estimated they were placing enough commercials on the air so that each Michigan resident would see them 14 times through Election Day.
Bush, both sides figure, is on the air even more heavily–especially with a foreboding spot about Clinton’s record as governor that might be titled “Apocalypse Arkansas.” From both sides, acerbic radio advertisements blare incessantly.
As for Perot, local observers say his ad assault has been less visible than in some other states. But his promises to shake up Washington have won him a strong following.
At one point early last week, Republican polls showed Perot surging over 20% in this state. With most of Perot’s gains coming from Clinton, that tightened the Michigan race considerably.
But, as has happened throughout the country, Perot’s support has slipped here since he accused the White House last week of engineering dirty tricks that forced his withdrawal from the race in July. Initially, the voters deserting Perot disproportionately moved to Bush, but now Clinton is winning his share of those voters and consolidating his lead.
“The President is unlikely to close the gap in Michigan on Election Day,” said GOP pollster Steve Lombardo.
Even with Clinton’s lead in the polls, Democrats here remain edgy. Almost without exception, they are haunted by the memory of 1990, when then-Gov. James J. Blanchard led Republican John Engler by 10 percentage points in the final polls–and then was swept from office by a strong Republican effort to get out their vote, coupled with a poor turnout in Detroit.
Democrats are insistent that won’t happen again. Registration is up in Detroit, and Mayor Coleman A. Young has put his shoulder into the Clinton effort. One local official estimated this weekend that 65% of registered Detroit voters could come to the polls today, compared to just 54% four years ago.
Unions are pushing hard too: The UAW has been distributing to members copies of a Flint newspaper article reporting that Ross Perot owns a Mercedes-Benz and other foreign cars. In Michigan, that’s not much different than burning a flag.
Republican efforts to turn out the vote are just as intense. In Oakland County alone, GOP volunteers made more than 150,000 calls last weekend, said Jim Alexander, the county GOP chairman.
Local observers say religious conservatives and anti-abortion activists are mounting powerful drives; thousands of copies of the Christian Coalition’s voter guide on the presidential candidates were distributed at Bush’s rally in Auburn Hills on Sunday.
Beyond its impact on the Electoral College, voting in Michigan should help answer some of the key questions on which the results will pivot around the nation. Among them:
* Can Clinton reclaim the so-called Reagan Democrats–the blue-collar ethnics who deserted the party during the 1970s and 1980s over taxes, the economy and the perception that Democrats favored minorities?
Stressing such issues as welfare reform and his support for the death penalty, Clinton has aggressively courted voters in Macomb County, a Detroit suburb renowned as the breeding ground of Reagan Democrats.
Republicans have fired back with targeted mailers hitting Clinton on trust and taxes. And Perot could be a formidable competitor in Macomb County and similar neighborhoods for the votes of working-class residents disgusted with Bush and the gridlock in Washington.
* Can Bush hold suburban Republicans and independents who favor abortion rights? Four years ago, he carried the generally affluent Detroit suburb of Oakland County by 109,000 votes. But the hard-right line on social issues at the Republican Convention did not play well there, and Democrats are optimistic that Clinton’s centrist message will allow him to make significant inroads, not only in Oakland County but in similar places in New Jersey, Illinois and Pennsylvania.
* Can Clinton get the high turnout he needs from blacks after a campaign so heavily focused on wooing white swing voters in the suburbs? The answer will affect the result not only here but in other industrial states, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as Southern battlegrounds like Georgia and Louisiana.
* Will young voters show up today? One reason Clinton’s margin diminished in some national surveys last week is those polls included very few young people among their likely voters–and Clinton, the first baby boomer to top a national ticket, has been running very well with the young.
In 1988, just 36% of eligible voters age 18 to 24 actually turned out. Mike Dolan, field director for Rock the Vote, a nonpartisan national effort to register and turn out young voters, predicts as many as half of them may vote this year.
Such a spike in turnout would be a huge boost for Clinton; in this state, for example, he has courted students at rallies at both the University of Michigan and Michigan State University.
One cloud on the Democratic horizon is the possibility of rain today in Michigan and much of the Midwest. Conventional wisdom holds that rain could dampen turnout in Detroit and other urban centers and pinch Clinton’s vote.
But many on both sides believe that interest in this campaign is so high that even rain won’t cool it off. “With all of the attention to the race this year,” Alexander said, “I don’t know if even rain is going to matter.”
Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter where the final days of the college football season are upon us. I’ve spent the past week trying to catch up on shopping for Christmas, which — checks notes — is only 10 days away??
So what better time to consider what USC might need for the year to come and put together a transfer portal wishlist of sorts, with portal season fast approaching.
Fight on! Are you a true Trojans fan?
5. Offensive line
Returning starters: LT Elijah Paige, LG Tobias Raymond, C Kilian O’Connor, RG Alani Noa, RT Justin Tauanuu
Other expected returners: Elijah Vaikona, Aaron Dunn, Alex Payne, Kaylon Miller
Notable newcomers: OT Keenyi Pepe, OG Esun Tafa
Offensive line coach Zach Hanson did a great job this season with the hand he was dealt. USC had injuries up and down its line, as Paige and O’Connor missed half the season. With most of last year’s line potentially returning, and a lot of young linemen entering Year 2, USC should have more depth to work with up front.
That said, it could stand to upgrade on the interior. USC pursued a transfer center to start over O’Connor last year and struck out on J’Onre Reed. Could they take another swing at that spot? As this season proved, there’s no such thing as having too many capable linemen.
4. Wide receiver
Returning starters: Tanook Hines
Other expected returners: Zacharyus Williams, Corey Simms
Makai Lemon is on his way to the NFL, and my expectation is that Ja’Kobi Lane will follow him. That leaves USC with just one returning starter at receiver, albeit one with a lot of promise.
Hines has the ability to be the Trojans’ No. 1 wideout, but he won’t be able to hold down the passing attack alone. USC will need to add at least one starter to the mix to fill out a receiving corps that is suddenly quite thin. Fortunately, USC has never had trouble finding a transfer for that purpose.
Zacharyus Williams seemed primed to contribute in 2025, but injuries derailed his start to the season. He could step into a bigger role. Several freshmen could see opportunities early, too, the most intriguing to me being Mosley, whose shiftiness reminds me of Lemon.
3. Cornerback
Returning starters: Marcelles Williams
Other expected returners: Chasen Johnson, Alex Graham, RJ Sermons, Kevin Longstreet
Notable newcomers: Elbert Hill, Brandon Lockhart
Injuries decimated this group last season and made it difficult for the secondary to find its stride. Now the room will have to be mostly rebuilt, with several corners out of eligibility or leaving in the portal.
Marcelles Williams should be better. Chasen Johnson was primed to start in 2025 and should be expected to step into that spot in 2026, while other young players, like Alex Graham and RJ Sermons, could take a huge step in Year 2.
But if there’s a lockdown outside corner in the portal, USC needs to do whatever it can to get them to L.A.
2. Interior defensive line
Returning starters: Devan Thompkins, Jide Abasiri
Other expected returners: Jahkeem Stewart, Floyd Boucard, Jah Jarrett
USC was supposed to be much improved on the interior in 2025, and that simply wasn’t the case, especially against the run. Experienced tackles like Keeshawn Silver and Thompkins, who entered the season with a lot of hype, never lived up to expectations. Jarrett was a disappointment before getting hurt, and Abasiri was inconsistent.
Stewart and Boucard both showed glimpses of major potential in spite of injuries, and both need to be on the field more next season. But this group is in need of a game-wrecker against the run, a stopper who can clog up the interior and hold his own in the Big Ten.
Those tackles don’t grow on trees, unfortunately. USC has tried to find them — and failed — on multiple occasions, the latest being Silver. But unless USC wants to rely heavily on its youth at defensive tackle next season, it’s going to need to find reinforcements from the transfer portal, no matter what.
1. Linebacker
Returning starters: Desman Stephens
Other expected returners: Jadyn Walker, Ta’Mere Robinson, AJ Tuitele
Notable newcomers: Talanoa Ili, Shaun Scott
This group was rough in 2025, and it’s set to lose its leader in Eric Gentry. Stephens felt miscast as a middle linebacker this season, and Walker, while dynamic, was still trying to figure things out in his first full season.
Walker and Stephens should be better with another offseason under their belt. But would anyone feel good going into next season with both as the primary starters at linebacker? I doubt it.
USC has already been linked to North Carolina linebacker Khmori House, and I doubt he’ll be the last linebacker that’s talked about as a possible Trojan. USC may bring in multiple linebackers and also have no choice but to count on a few of its young guys making the leap. Ili, in particular, is intriguing as a top-100 recruit.
Where does Makai Lemon’s season rank?
Makai Lemon
(Eric Thayer/Los Angeles Times)
Makai Lemon’s coronation as college football’s top receiver in 2025 was made complete last week as he became the second Trojan wideout to be awarded the Biletnikoff.
The only other Biletnikoff winner in the award’s 30 years of existence was Marqise Lee, who finished the 2012 season with an NCAA-leading 118 catches, 1,721 yards and 14 receiving touchdowns. Lemon had 39 fewer catches and 565 fewer yards this season.
That’s largely a reflection of how prolific Lee was in 2012. But the fact that Lemon’s Biletnikoff-winning performance doesn’t rank in the top 10 statistically in any category in USC history shows just how many great receivers USC has had in the last quarter century.
Five USC receivers have caught over 100 passes in a season, four of which came in the last 15 years. Drake London would have made it six — and won his own Biletnikoff — if he hadn’t injured his ankle in 2021.
Lemon’s 79 catches rank 13th in USC history, his 11 touchdowns are tied for 11th.
That’s not to take away from what Lemon has done this season. His ability to create yards after the catch is perhaps unlike any other receiver in school history. But in the annals of great seasons for USC receivers, Lemon may never look quite as impressive on paper as it felt in person.
Lindsay Gottlieb
(Eric Thayer/Los Angeles Times)
—Waymond Jordan will return to USC in 2026. And that’s huge news for USC’s rushing attack, which will now be able to deploy one of the Big Ten’s most dynamic 1-2 punches with Jordan and King Miller. Jordan didn’t play the second half of the season after suffering an ankle injury that required surgery. Had he continued his pace from the first half of the season, Jordan probably wouldn’t be coming back to USC in 2026 … because he’d be on his way to the NFL. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Jordan comes into next season as arguably the best returning back in the Big Ten. If USC hopes to hold up during its gauntlet of a conference slate, the run game will have to lead the way.
—Notre Dame is losing its scheduling leverage. The tides have really started to turn on the Irish ever since they declined a bowl invite following their College Football Playoff snub. That didn’t sit well with the rest of the college football world. Neither did the news that Notre Dame, according to Yahoo’s Ross Dellenger, negotiated a deal for preferential playoff access starting next season. In fact, according to Dan Wolken, also of Yahoo, it has led athletic directors in other leagues to threaten to freeze Notre Dame out in the future. We’ll see if anyone actually follows through on that threat — I have my doubts — but it does seemingly give USC an upper hand when it comes to getting a deal done soon … if it wants one. It’s probably no coincidence that athletic director Pete Bevacqua now appears optimistic about getting a deal done quickly, after blaming USC for the hold-up. Bevacqua told The Echoes podcast last week that he thought the two schools would come to an agreement on a short-term extension, potentially with a gap in the series after that. That’s the deal that USC has been trying to sell Notre Dame on since August.
—USC did add a non-conference matchup to its 2026 slate. Louisiana will come to the Coliseum on Sept. 12, 2026, to face USC for the first time in program history. USC will pay the Ragin’ Cajuns $1.3 million for the rights to what should be an easy non-conference victory. The Trojans now have 11 of 12 games scheduled for 2026, with one very glaring opening remaining.
—Chad Baker-Mazara is leading the Big Ten in scoring and exceeding all preseason expectations. The sixth-year senior came to USC in search of a bigger scoring role, and with Rodney Rice out, he’s made the most of his opportunity. Baker-Mazara is averaging 25 points per game over USC’s last four, in the wake of Rice’s injury, and shooting the lights out, hitting 53% of his shots during that stretch. Even beyond his offensive output, Baker-Mazara’s energy has been an important part of USC’s identity early on. If he can keep scoring efficiently when Rice and freshman Alijah Arenas return from injury, USC could be a legitimate threat come March.
—Nike did a cool thing to honor Gigi Bryant during what would’ve been her freshman year at Connecticut. During Saturday’s USC-UConn matchup, every player on the court wore a different pair of Kobe’s. Even players who didn’t play wore different pairs of Kobe’s. Nike says that’s the first time it has ever done that in a college basketball game.
—I’ve always appreciated Lindsay Gottlieb’s willingness to be vulnerable. And she showed that part of herself again Saturday, in response to a mass shooting at her alma mater, Brown. She addressed the shooting before talking about USC’s loss to UConn and was clearly shaken by the situation. She said a former teammate at Brown was waiting to hear from a kid who was hiding in the basement of a library. Gottlieb didn’t pull any punches: “It’s the guns,” she said. “We’re the only country who lives this way.”
Poll results
We asked, “Which of these five options would you put at the top of USC’s transfer portal wish list?”
After 402 votes, the results:
Reinforcements at linebacker, 40.7% A run stopper on the interior, 39.7% A shutdown cornerback, 10.1% A standout edge rusher, 7.9% A No. 1 wide receiver, 1.6%
Top 5 … restaurants in L.A.
In honor of one of my favorite things we do at The Times — our 101 best restaurants list — here’s my take on the five best fine dining establishments in L.A. …
5. Funke. Really, I could choose any of Evan Funke’s restaurants in this position. Mostly because the focaccia bread, so deliciously dripping with olive oil, requires recognition.
4. Bavel/Bestia. Cheating, I know, but I love both of these restaurants equally. The Peruvian scallop crudo at Bestia is one of the best appetizers I’ve ever had. Meanwhile anything involving lamb at Bavel is out of this world.
3. Republique. It’s the most breathtaking setting of any restaurant in L.A., built into an old church, and the pastries and bread are unforgettable. Any trip requires ordering pan drippings on a baguette, as strange as that may sound.
2. Providence. The ultimate special occasion spot. I still think about the 12-course meal I had there 10 years ago.
1. Dunsmoor. This is a new top restaurant for me within the last year, but I was absolutely blown away by Dunsmoor. The cornbread is an all-time dish for me, and there’s just something about eating your entire meal from a hearth that does it for me. It was so good that I had to mention it in a previous newsletter, and here I am, writing about it again.
It’s not often these days that a show delivers a story so unexpected that I have no idea where it’s headed. But “Pluribus” is one of those shows. Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised given that Vince Gilligan, the writer and showrunner, is a master of storytelling.
The story follows Carol, played by Rhea Seehorn, whose world is turned upside down suddenly by a humanity-altering event that mysteriously does not affect her. Seehorn is terrific as always, and the story has been genuinely gripping so far.
Until next time …
That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.
Michigan has fired head football coach Sherrone Moore with cause after a university investigation found “credible evidence” he had “engaged in an inappropriate relationship with a staff member,” the school announced Wednesday.
“This conduct constitutes a clear violation of University policy,” athletic director Warde Manuel said in a statement, “and U-M maintains zero tolerance for such behavior.”
Moore started at Michigan in 2018 as tight ends coach and worked his way up to offensive coordinator. He was named head coach in January 2024, weeks after the Wolverines won the College Football Playoff national championship, after Jim Harbaugh left to become coach of the Chargers.
The Wolverines went 8-5 in Sherrone’s first season, including a win over Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl, and 9-3 this season, earning a spot in the Citrus Bowl against Texas on Dec. 31.
Associate head coach Biff Poggi has been named interim head coach. Poggi also served as interim coach for two games in 2025 while Sherrone was suspended after an NCAA investigation into Michigan’s sign-stealing scandal.
Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where we’re left wondering if anyone will remember the Alamo (Bowl) after this bowl season.
USC will face Texas Christian in its first trip to the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 30, the night before the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff kick off. Throw in the fact that the Horned Frogs finished in seventh place in the Big 12, and you don’t exactly have a marquee, made-for-TV matchup.
But for USC’s coach, the Alamo Bowl should carry a certain significance — if only for the fact that it’s where his reputation as a budding offensive mastermind was born.
Fight on! Are you a true Trojans fan?
Sixteen years ago this December, Lincoln Riley was on his way to a team meeting ahead of Texas Tech’s bowl game, when defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill pulled him aside. Mike Leach, the Red Raiders’ head coach had been suspended for the bowl for allegations of player mistreatment — and would be fired days later. McNeill, the interim coach, wanted Riley to call plays for him.
Riley was 26, and reeling from the news about his mentor.
“An opportunity arose out of a not-very-positive situation,” Riley said Sunday.
It turned out to be a life-changing one for the Red Raiders’ receivers coach. McNeill already knew that Riley was a savvy young coach. But right away, McNeill told me in 2022, his sense of how to lead in such an adverse situation was special.
“I just remember him very confidently taking over the duties,” McNeill said. “He was the youngest guy on the staff, and he had to galvanize the staff immediately. He was the youngest guy on staff, and he did it with no hesitation.”
Then came the game. It was the first time Riley had been on the sideline for a game, having spent most of his time for Texas Tech in the booth. But his confidence came across right away, McNeill said.
After a chaotic few weeks in which Texas Tech could have unraveled, the Red Raiders instead put up 571 yards, its second-highest output of the entire season. Trailing midway through the fourth quarter, Texas Tech mounted two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes. On the second, Riley convinced McNeill to go for it twice on fourth down to ice the game. They converted both.
Years later, McNeill was still in awe of Riley’s performance that night.
“I wish I would’ve recorded the play-calling he did that night,” McNeill said. “I’ve heard him call a lot of games. But that night was amazing to me.”
Years later, with Riley set to return to the scene of his special night, it wasn’t lost on him how every step he’s taken since as a coach started in San Antonio.
“If you’re fortunate enough to get some pretty cool opportunities in this business,” Riley said Sunday, “you have to have some nights like that where you look back and say, you know, if this didn’t happen, would we have gotten these opportunities? Would we have coached at some of these places or experienced what we have?
“That’s definitely one for me that I still remember, like it was just yesterday.”
Texas Christian … by the numbers
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover.
(Eric Christian Smith / Associated Press)
Weeks of bowl projections went out the window when the Alamo Bowl picked TCU with its Big 12 selection. So what should you know about the Horned Frogs?
242.8. The number of passing yards allowed per game by TCU this season.
3,472. The number of passing yards from TCU quarterback Josh Hoover this season, sixth-most in the nation.
This game is shaping up to be a barnburner through the air. The Horned Frogs have been even worse defending the pass down the stretch, having allowed at least 280 passing yards in four of their past six games. Of those six teams only one (Baylor) has a passing attack anywhere near as dynamic as USC.
Both quarterbacks could put up huge numbers. Jayden Maiava threw for 41 fewer yards than Hoover this season, but also five fewer interceptions.
3.93. TCU’s yards per rush attempt this season, which ranks 97th nationally. USC’s biggest vulnerability has been defending the run, but that shouldn’t be a problem in the bowl game. TCU bookended its season with two big games on the ground — 258 yards against North Carolina and 238 against Cincinnati. But during the 10 games in between, the Horned Frogs averaged just 109.5 yards rushing per game, which would rank in the bottom 15 in college football.
9. The number of rushing touchdowns allowed by TCU this season. While the Horned Frogs have struggled to defend the pass, they’ve been stout against the run. Only 10 teams in college football have allowed fewer rushing scores.
The Biletnikoff case for Lemon
Makai Lemon makes a catch while under pressure from Iowa defensive back Zach Lutmer.
(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)
The nation’s top receiver will be named next Friday, and while I wouldn’t begrudge anyone for suggesting fellow finalist Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State is the better pro prospect — objectively, he is — I think it’s quite clear Makai Lemon has had a better overall season than any pass-catcher in college football.
Let’s start with the basic numbers, even though those only tell part of the story: Lemon had 79 catches to lead the Big Ten, seven more than Smith and 15 more than any other conference wideout before the Big Ten championship game. He had 1,156 yards — 214 more than Smith, who was third in the Big Ten, and 11 receiving touchdowns, which tied with Smith for the conference lead.
The deeper you go into the details, the more the numbers favor Lemon. No one is more dangerous with the ball in his hands as he averaged 6.4 yards after the catch per reception this season. That’s almost two full yards more than Smith.
Lemon outperformed Smith on contested catches, pulling down 66% compared to just 46% for Smith. He was also harder to bring down, forcing 20 missed tackles to Smith’s 13.
It’s no disrespect to Smith, who will be a top-10 NFL draft pick soon enough. But Lemon has been the better receiver on the field this season. And he should get the hardware to prove it.
Bishop Fitzgerald scores a touchdown after intercepting a pass against the Missouri State Bears.
(Luke Hales/Getty Images)
—Notre Dame was left out of the Playoff. So now what? Before we consider what this means for the rivalry, I should note that I think it was the wrong decision for the committee to keep the Irish out of the field after Alabama had just been trounced in the SEC title game. But now that it has happened, you can imagine the feelings of schadenfreude around USC. The snub of the Irish only proves how much they need a non-conference opponent like USC, as my colleague Bill Plaschke pointed out before the final CFP rankings. If only there was a collective of similar teams that Notre Dame could have joined to help boost its strength of schedule. Oh well.
—The Big Ten media voted five Trojans onto the all-conference team. Lemon was obviously on the first team, as was safety Bishop Fitzgerald. Tight end Lake McRee made the second team after his best season yet at USC, and wideout Ja’Kobi Lane made the third team despite dealing with injuries through a large chunk of the year. Kicker Ryon Sayeri also made the third team after coming out of nowhere as a walk-on. Any one of USC’s running backs would’ve made the top three teams, if they’d started the full season. Maybe there was a case, at one point, for Maiava; though, the top three of Julian Sayin, Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore are pretty competitive at quarterback. Otherwise, it seems like no Trojans had much of a case that they were left out.
—After the Miller brothers, King and Kaylon, were standouts of the 2025 season, USC is adding a third brother to the mix. Kayne Miller, a running back at Calabasas High, signed last week with USC as a preferred walk-on, starting from the bottom just like his brothers did. King and Kaylon should be getting scholarships come January, and Kayne will have the perfect blueprint to follow in their footsteps.
—Penn State hired Iowa State’s Matt Campbell as its head football coach after a roller coaster search process that tiptoed along the edge of disaster. But after all that, the Nittany Lions actually ended up with the guy who likely would’ve been USC’s coach, had Riley turned the job down in 2022. Now we’ll get to see how Campbell translates to the Big Ten after all.
Olympic sports spotlight
Aside from a loss to No. 1 Nebraska last month, USC women’s volleyball hadn’t lost a match since Oct. 11 — nearly two full months — when the fourth-seeded Trojans welcomed Cal Poly to Galen Center in the second round of the NCAA tournament last week.
But the Trojans immediately dropped their first two sets Friday. And despite winning the next two, the hole they’d dug proved to be too deep.
The upset defeat put a damper on what was an otherwise strong season for the Trojans, who finished 25-7 and 15-5 in the Big Ten.
Portal polling
Transfer portal season is fast approaching, and while USC is planning to be more selective in this cycle, there are still spots to fill with portal players.
With those needs in mind, I want you to tell me what you think: Which of these five options would you put at the top of USC’s transfer portal wish list?
Sarah Snook, left, and Dakota Fanning, who star in the Peacock miniseries “All Her Fault.”
(Victoria Will / For The Times)
If you’re looking for twists and turns this holiday season, look no further than Peacock’s “All Her Fault,” a show whose plot you could not possibly have seen coming from the pilot episode. The show, which stars Sarah Snook of “Succession,” follows a wealthy family in the wake of their young son being kidnapped. But nothing, as you might imagine, is exactly as it seems.
Credit goes to my wife, who first recommended it and nudged me at every mention of the mental load mothers deal with on a daily basis, which the show points to often.
Until next time …
That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.
