markets

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven met in Paris to address rising global financial instability triggered by a bond market selloff and concerns over inflation linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran.

The meeting comes at a time when global bond markets from Tokyo to New York are under pressure, as investors anticipate that higher energy prices could force central banks to maintain or increase interest rates.

Officials are also preparing for a broader discussion on structural global imbalances and coordination ahead of an upcoming G7 leaders summit.

Bond Market Pressure and Inflation Concerns

Bond yields have risen sharply across major economies as investors reassess inflation risks. Markets are increasingly focused on whether rising energy costs will translate into sustained price pressures that limit the ability of central banks to ease policy.

French officials have described the current situation as a correction rather than a crisis, though they acknowledge growing sensitivity around sovereign debt levels and fiscal sustainability.

The volatility has raised concerns particularly in highly debt sensitive economies such as Japan, where bond market movements are closely watched for spillover effects.

Diverging Views Within the G7

Despite the shared concerns, divisions remain among G7 members over how to respond to global economic instability.

European officials have emphasized the need for coordinated, temporary, and targeted responses to market shocks, while acknowledging that consensus with the United States may be difficult.

Some members argue that global economic imbalances are becoming structurally entrenched, with consumption and investment patterns increasingly misaligned across major economies.

Global Imbalances and Structural Concerns

A central focus of the discussions is the growing imbalance in global economic activity. European officials argue that long term trends show excessive consumption in some economies, under consumption in others, and insufficient investment in parts of Europe.

These structural disparities are seen as contributing to persistent trade tensions, capital flow imbalances, and financial market instability.

Officials warn that without coordinated policy responses, these imbalances could eventually lead to more severe market corrections.

Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Strategy

Another key agenda item is the global competition over critical minerals and rare earth supply chains, which are essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and defense technologies.

G7 members are exploring ways to reduce dependence on dominant suppliers, particularly China, through coordinated investment, joint procurement strategies, and diversification of supply chains.

Proposals under discussion include pooled purchasing mechanisms, market monitoring systems, and industrial policy coordination to strengthen supply security.

Analysis

The G7 meeting highlights a convergence of financial instability and geopolitical fragmentation. Rising bond yields and inflation fears are no longer isolated market issues but are now directly linked to geopolitical disruptions in energy supply and global trade routes.

At the same time, disagreements within the G7 reflect deeper structural tensions in the global economy, particularly around debt levels, consumption patterns, and industrial policy priorities.

Efforts to coordinate on critical minerals signal a shift toward more strategic economic alignment among advanced economies, where supply chain security is becoming as important as price stability.

Overall, the meeting underscores a global transition toward a more fragmented and politically driven financial system, where economic coordination is increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk rather than purely market based forces.

With information from Reuters.

Uzbekistan’s National Investment Fund, known as UzNIF, began trading on the London Stock Exchange on Monday, marking the country’s first international equity offering.

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The fund, which is managed by Franklin Templeton, also launched simultaneously on the Tashkent Stock Exchange through a dual listing structure, bringing Uzbek state-linked assets to international equity markets for the first time.

The opening ceremony at the London Stock Exchange brought together executives, investors and Uzbek officials, with speakers presenting the listing as a significant step in the country’s efforts to expand access to international capital markets.

First international equity offering

Speaking during the ceremony, Julia Hoggett, Chief Executive Officer of the London Stock Exchange, described the IPO as “the first ever international IPO out of Uzbekistan” and said the transaction could help “more global investment to flow” into the country’s economy.

Hoggett also said the dual listing marked “a new chapter both in London and in Tashkent”, adding that the offering connected international investors with a portfolio of Uzbek companies through a single fund managed by an international asset manager.

Saida Mirziyoyeva, Head of the Administration of the President of Uzbekistan, said Uzbekistan was preparing “new listings” and expanding private sector participation, while also working on plans linked to the proposed Tashkent International Financial Centre.

Speaking from the London Stock Exchange balcony, Mirziyoyeva said the IPO was “not just about raising capital” but also about “building trust in a new generation of Uzbek institutions”.

Jenny Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Franklin Templeton, described the IPO as “a defining and historic milestone” for both Uzbekistan and Franklin Templeton, saying the transaction had generated more than $2.8 billion in investor demand globally.

Johnson said orders exceeded the initial offering by more than four times during the bookbuilding process, which ran from late April to mid-May. She added that the domestic offering in Tashkent had become the country’s “largest local listing to date”, allowing local investors to participate alongside international institutional funds.

International investors and state assets

Thirty percent of the fund’s shares were offered internationally through global depositary receipts, while part of the allocation was also made available to domestic investors through the Tashkent Stock Exchange.

According to previously released information from the fund and its advisers, international demand reached around $2.9 billion (€2.6bn), with more than 160 institutional investors participating in the offering. Among them were BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Redwheel.

The IPO raised approximately $603.6 million (€540m), valuing the fund at around $1.95 billion (€1.74bn) at the offer price. The shares were sold by Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Economy and Finance, meaning the proceeds from the transaction will go to the state rather than directly to the fund itself.

The international tranche included more than 23 million global depositary receipts, or GDRs, listed in London under the trading symbols UZNF and UZ20. One GDR represents 64,700 shares in the fund.

Cornerstone investors, including funds and accounts managed by BlackRock, Franklin Resources and Redwheel, as well as treasury companies linked to the Allan & Gill Gray Foundation, committed a combined $300 million (€268m) to the offering.

UzNIF was established in 2024 under a presidential decree and is managed by Franklin Templeton, the US-based investment company that oversees more than $1.4 trillion (€1.25 trn) in assets globally and operates in more than 150 countries.

The fund’s portfolio includes stakes in 13 state-linked companies operating in sectors considered strategic for the Uzbek economy, including electricity distribution, thermal power generation, hydropower, telecommunications, aviation, rail infrastructure, utilities and banking.

Among the companies included in the portfolio are Uzbektelecom, Uzbekistan Airways, Uzbekhydroenergo and several state energy and infrastructure operators.

The listing also reflects broader efforts to develop domestic capital markets in Uzbekistan and increase participation from local investors alongside international institutions.

Global currency markets remained broadly stable on Monday despite escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran. The limited movement in the US dollar came after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a United States peace proposal, reinforcing concerns that the conflict in the Middle East may persist for an extended period.

At the center of global financial attention is the interaction between geopolitical risk, energy prices, and monetary policy expectations. Rising oil prices, driven by uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability, continue to shape inflation expectations across major economies. However, currency markets have shown relative restraint, suggesting that investors are balancing immediate geopolitical risks against expectations of eventual diplomatic stabilization.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of major global currencies, remained largely unchanged. At the same time, oil prices rose sharply, reflecting renewed concerns about supply disruptions and prolonged conflict conditions.

Geopolitical Risk and Market Equilibrium

Financial markets are currently operating in a state of tension between short term geopolitical shocks and longer term expectations of resolution. The stability of the US dollar suggests that investors are not fully pricing in a sustained breakdown in global energy flows, despite elevated uncertainty in the Middle East.

The oil market, by contrast, continues to respond rapidly to political developments. The rise in crude prices reflects concerns that prolonged instability could restrict supply routes and tighten global energy availability. This divergence between currency stability and commodity volatility highlights the uneven transmission of geopolitical risk across financial systems.

Market analysts note that expectations of diplomatic engagement between the United States and China remain a key stabilizing factor. Investors increasingly view high level diplomatic meetings as potential mechanisms for de escalation, particularly given the influence both countries exert over global energy and trade systems.

The Role of the United States and China in Market Sentiment

A major factor influencing market behavior is the anticipated summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting is expected to cover a wide range of strategic issues including energy security, artificial intelligence, nuclear policy, and regional conflicts.

Markets are closely monitoring this engagement because both the United States and China possess significant leverage over geopolitical and economic developments in the Middle East. China’s role as a major energy importer and diplomatic stakeholder in the region gives it potential influence over Iranian policy, while the United States remains the dominant military and financial actor in global markets.

This dual influence creates expectations that broader geopolitical tensions may eventually be moderated through strategic dialogue. As a result, investors are partially pricing in the possibility of containment rather than escalation, which helps explain the relative stability of major currencies.

Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Positioning

Energy price movements remain central to global inflation dynamics. Rising oil prices directly influence transportation costs, production expenses, and consumer prices, creating upward pressure on inflation across both advanced and emerging economies.

In the United States, recent economic data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious monetary stance. Strong employment figures combined with persistent inflation risks have reduced expectations of near term interest rate cuts. This has contributed to support for the US dollar, as higher interest rate expectations typically attract capital inflows into dollar denominated assets.

The interaction between monetary policy and geopolitical risk is becoming increasingly complex. Central banks are now required to respond not only to domestic economic indicators but also to external shocks originating from energy markets and international conflicts.

In this environment, currency movements reflect not just economic fundamentals but also expectations regarding central bank behavior under conditions of sustained uncertainty.

Diverging Currency Movements and Global Economic Signals

While the US dollar remained stable, other major currencies exhibited modest weakness. The euro, yen, and British pound all recorded slight declines, reflecting broader caution in global markets.

The movement of the Chinese yuan, which briefly strengthened to its highest level in several years, adds another dimension to the global currency landscape. This reflects both domestic economic data and broader expectations regarding China’s role in global trade and energy markets.

China’s economic performance, particularly in exports and industrial activity, continues to be closely linked to global energy prices and supply chain dynamics. Strong export growth suggests resilience in external demand, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising production costs.

These currency movements collectively indicate that global markets are navigating a period of uneven economic signals, where regional conditions and geopolitical developments interact in complex ways.

The Interplay Between Markets and Political Uncertainty

One of the defining characteristics of the current financial environment is the speed at which geopolitical developments translate into market expectations. Currency traders and investors are increasingly sensitive to political signals, particularly those involving energy producing regions and major global powers.

However, despite heightened volatility in oil markets, the US dollar’s stability suggests that investors still view the global financial system as structurally resilient. Rather than anticipating systemic disruption, markets appear to be pricing in cyclical instability followed by eventual stabilization.

This reflects a broader pattern in which financial markets absorb geopolitical shocks through short term volatility without fully abandoning long term confidence in global economic integration.

Analysis

The stability of the US dollar amid escalating geopolitical tensions highlights a critical feature of contemporary global markets. While energy prices and regional conflicts generate significant short term volatility, currency markets remain anchored by expectations of monetary policy stability and eventual diplomatic resolution.

The current environment is characterized by three overlapping dynamics. First, geopolitical risk is elevated due to sustained conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding diplomatic negotiations. Second, energy markets are highly sensitive to supply disruptions, producing rapid price fluctuations. Third, central bank policy expectations continue to play a stabilizing role in currency valuation.

The anticipated meeting between the United States and China represents a key focal point for market sentiment, as investors look for signals of broader strategic coordination or de escalation. However, the underlying structural tensions in the global system remain unresolved.

Ultimately, the current stability of the dollar should not be interpreted as a sign of reduced risk, but rather as evidence that markets are temporarily balancing competing expectations of conflict, diplomacy, and monetary policy. In such an environment, volatility in commodities and geopolitical headlines may continue, even as major currencies appear relatively stable on the surface.

With information from Reuters.

Published on 11/05/2026 – 7:59 GMT+2•Updated
8:11

Oil prices surged in early trade as investors digested the latest developments in the Middle East, with both Brent and US crude climbing over 4%.

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It comes after Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s response to the latest US proposition on bringing the conflict in Iran, and subsequent impact on trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz, to an end.

In other trading, US futures edged lower, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.4% to 62,486.84 after briefly reaching another record high in intraday trading at above 63,300.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 4.1% to 7,804.71. It also hit an all-time intraday high, led by gains from tech-related stocks including Samsung Electronics and memory chip maker SK Hynix.

Technology-related stocks and growing artificial intelligence-related interest have supported markets in Japan and South Korea despite the Iran war, with the Nikkei 225 and Kospi rising more than 10% and 30%, respectively, over the past month.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump will head to China this week for talks with his counterpart, Xi Jinping. The two leaders are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including trade concerns.

Published on
05/05/2026 – 7:12 GMT+2

Oil prices fell back in early trade but remained elevated as investors kept an eye on escalating tensions between the US and Iran and progress on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

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At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 1.38% lower at $112.86 while US crude, or WTI, was down 2.27% at $104 per barrel. US futures edged 0.1% higher.

Elsewhere, regional trading was thin overnight with markets in Japan, South Korea and mainland China closed for holidays.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.1% to 25,805.98. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.5% to 8,649.80, while Taiwan’s Taiex traded 0.2% lower at 40,626.22.

The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran was tested on Monday after the US military said it had sank six Iranian small boats targeting civilian ships, while two US-flagged ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The key waterway for oil and gas transport remains largely closed despite repeated demands from the US for Iran to reopen the strait and as the United States imposed a sea blockade on Iranian ports. US President Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” plan under which the United States would help guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz began on Monday.

Brent crude, the international standard, surged above $114 a barrel on Monday, gaining nearly 6%. Before the war began in late February, it was trading near $70.

Published on
04/05/2026 – 13:15 GMT+2

The major AI company Anthropic is exploring a potential partnership with the British semiconductor firm Fractile to secure a steady supply of chips for custom inference and reduce the significant overheads associated with current semiconductor solutions.

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According to reports, these talks represent a strategic effort by the San Francisco-based firm to decrease its dependency on Nvidia whilst enhancing the speed and efficiency of its current and next-generation models.

As the global demand for generative AI capacity continues to climb, the financial burden of the hardware required to run these systems has become a primary hurdle for developers.

Anthropic, which has received multi-billion-dollar investments from both Amazon and Google, currently relies heavily on Nvidia’s H100 units alongside custom processors provided by its cloud partners.

However, the high market price and limited availability of these industry-standard chips have squeezed profit margins, prompting firms to look elsewhere.

According to industry analysts, a deal with a specialised firm like Fractile could allow Anthropic to exert greater control over its technical infrastructure.

This strategy reflects a broader trend among tech giants, including Microsoft and Meta, who are increasingly moving away from general-purpose chips in favour of internal or boutique designs.

A shift in memory architecture and a boost for British technology

Founded in 2022 by Oxford PhD Walter Goodwin, Fractile has gained significant attention for its unconventional approach to processor design.

Unlike standard chips that must constantly shuttle data between the processor and separate memory modules, Fractile’s “memory-compute fusion” architecture keeps data directly on the chip using static random-access memory, or SRAM, which does not need to be refreshed.

According to the British start-up, this method can run large language models up to a hundred times faster than existing hardware while lowering operational costs by 90%.

While these performance claims are impressive, the technology is still in the development phase.

Fractile has not yet launched a commercial product, and its specialised chips are not expected to be ready for full-scale data centre deployment until 2027.

Despite the long timeline, the start-up is reportedly in negotiations to raise $200 million (€170.5m) in funding at a valuation exceeding $1 billion (€853m).

The potential partnership highlights the growing significance of the UK’s semiconductor sector on the world stage. If a formal agreement is reached, Fractile could become Anthropic’s fourth major chip supplier, joining the ranks of Nvidia, Google and Amazon.

According to market reports, the discussions remain at an early stage and no binding contract has been signed.

However, the interest from a major player such as Anthropic suggests that in the AI race, the ability to deliver faster and cheaper compute power is the defining factor.

Published on
04/05/2026 – 7:15 GMT+2

Crude prices were slightly lower ahead of European markets opening as traders digested comments from US President Donald Trump that Washington would help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz from today. Iran, however, has rejected the plan.

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At the time of writing, the price of a barrel of US benchmark crude (WTI) was down 0.28% to $101.65 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, edged down 0.06% to $108.10 a barrel.

Much hinges now on progress towards ending the war with Iran and unlocking the bottleneck through the Strait of Hormuz.

The oil market “remains the fulcrum, with hundreds of tankers, bulk carriers, and cargo ships still stranded across the Gulf, idling as storage constraints force producers to shut … production simply because there is nowhere left to store it,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary note.

Trump said what he called “Project Freedom” would begin Monday morning in the Middle East. The US Central Command said it would involve guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and 15,000 service members, but the Pentagon did not immediately answer questions about how they would be deployed.

Asia-Pacific and US markets

In Asian share trading overnight, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.4% to 26,135.47. Markets in mainland China and Japan were closed for “Golden Week” holidays. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,704.70.

Strong buying of tech stocks pushed shares in South Korea sharply higher, as the Kospi gained 3.8%. Taiwan’s Taiex surged 4.2%.

On Friday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to another all-time high of 7,230.12, closing out a fifth straight winning week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3% to 49,499.27, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.9% to a record close of 25,114.44.

Apple led the way after delivering better profit than expected. Because it’s one of Wall Street’s biggest stocks in terms of overall size, its rally of 3.3% was by far the strongest force lifting the S&P 500.

Stock prices generally follow the path of corporate profits over the long term, and US companies have been exceeding expectations for earnings in the first three months of 2026. That’s even with the war with Iran and high oil prices souring confidence for many US households.

Strong earnings boost S&P 500

A little more than a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported already, and 84% of them have topped analysts’ estimates, according to FactSet. The index is on track to deliver roughly 15% growth in profit from a year earlier.

The main uncertainty for the global economy is where oil prices are heading because of the Iran war. Oil prices moved higher last week on worries that the war might keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time, trapping oil tankers pent up in the Persian Gulf instead of delivering crude to customers worldwide.

Brent was selling for a little more than $70 per barrel before the war began, and soaring prices helped the two biggest U.S. oil companies report stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. But stock prices nevertheless fell for both Exxon Mobil, 1%, and Chevron, 1.4%, as oil prices regressed Friday and each reported drops in net income from a year earlier.

In other dealings early Monday, the dollar rose to 157.18 Japanese yen from 156.80 yen. The euro fell to $1.1724 from $1.1746.

Chris Weafer, the CEO of Micro-Advisory Partners, says the UAE’s OPEC exit frees one million barrels of spare capacity. He warns Kazakhstan and Venezuela may follow, leaving OPEC far less influential on global oil pricing.

Oil markets face renewed instability following the United Arab Emirates’ formal exit from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its wider alliance (OPEC+), announced on Tuesday and taking effect on Friday.

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The move, which ends decades of membership, comes as the global economy continues to reel from the ongoing war with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.

Investors are currently weighing the potential for higher future output from the UAE against the immediate and acute risks posed to global supply routes, as well as the increased chances that more countries drop out of OPEC and OPEC+.

Following the announcement, markets reacted swiftly as the potential for oversupply from the UAE was priced in. Oil prices fell by between 2% and 3%, particularly in futures contracts a couple of months ahead.

However, the move was just as quickly offset by the risk premium associated with the Middle East conflict and the current halt to US-Iran negotiations.

At the time of writing, US benchmark crude, WTI, is trading above $105 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, is over $112. Both prices are around 4% higher on Wednesday from the UAE announcement low.

The UAE’s decision follows years of simmering tension between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over production quotas. The UAE has invested over $150 billion (€128bn) in the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to expand its capacity to five million barrels per day.

However, under OPEC’s restrictive framework, much of this capacity remained underutilised, now prompting the government to prioritise its national interest.

The departure of the group’s third-largest producer is a significant blow to the cohesion of the 60-year-old organisation. Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, noted the limitations this exit places on the remaining members.

“Until tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is safe again, OPEC’s ability to stabilise prices is sharply constrained, while US producers have gained outsized influence,” Carulli explained.

While the UAE has pledged to bring additional production to the market in a “gradual and measured” manner, the sudden lack of coordination within OPEC has introduced a new layer of uncertainty.

For the UAE, the blockade served as a final catalyst for its exit. With its primary export route under threat, Abu Dhabi has sought the diplomatic flexibility to forge independent security and trade partnerships outside the traditional cartel structure.

Despite the geopolitical turmoil, energy equities have remained resilient.

According to Carulli, “integrated majors such as BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, ENI, Chevron and ExxonMobil are benefitting from a price uplift that could add 5-10% to operating cash flow for every $10 increase in oil prices.”

Standoff over the Strait of Hormuz

In a separate but related development, the security situation in the Middle East remains precarious despite a fragile ceasefire. Iran has recently offered a ten-point proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In exchange for restoring maritime traffic, Tehran is demanding a full withdrawal of the US naval blockade and an end to the current hostilities.

US President Donald Trump, who recently extended the two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, described the latest Iranian offer as “much better” than previous iterations but still did not accept the terms.

Shortly after, Trump posted on social media claiming that Iran is in a dire and desperate condition with no leverage to negotiate.

Washington continues to insist on a permanent settlement regarding Iran’s nuclear programme and an “unconditional” reopening of the waterway before sanctions are lifted.

The impact of this blockade on global energy security cannot be overstated.

“The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 12% of global oil supply from the market, according to the IEA, a bigger disruption than the Yom Kippur war, the Iran‑Iraq conflict, the invasion of Kuwait or even the fallout from Ukraine,” Carulli highlighted.

A HUGE new “world class new visit destination” is set to open in the UK.

Xanadoo is a new indoor attraction concept that has been designed by some of the people behind the Eden Project.

They claim it will be “unlike any other museum” with massive playgrounds, art areas and food halls, as well as being educational.

When guests arrive, the will be a market hall with food and drink stalls.

The first area is the “Road to Happiness” with a series of art installations along the way.

Then there is “The Gallery of Marvellous Situations” which they say will take people “back in time” using immersive experiences.

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The Playground in the third area, with images showing slides, a huge helter skelter, climbing structures, mazes, and even a life-size snakes and ladders.

Then in the fourth area is “Tomorrow’s World” with futuristic designs showing the world in hundreds of years time.

“Call to Action” is the final area, which has a life-size “game” with levers and dials that show the impact on the current world.

The entire attraction ‘will bring “science and art” together, and be for all ages.

The cost of the project hasn’t been revealed, but it is thought that £840million will be brought to the local economy, they predict.

They hope it will encourage year-round visitors, including families and school trips as well as locals.

Where it will be built is also yet to be revealed, although they are looking at locations across South Wales.

Gaynor Coley, co-founder of the Eden Project, told local media: “We believe Xanadoo can do the same for South Wales as the Eden Project did for Cornwall.

“An economic impact assessment has just been carried out and it has bought £6 billion to Cornwall and the West Country which is more than the whole of European funding and we’d like to do the same for South Wales.

“It will bring sustainable tourism, support hospitality and creativity, storytelling, digital and health and wellbeing.”

Eden Project opened in Cornwall back in 2020, and remains the only one of its kind.

However, a second site – Eden Project Morecambe – is set to open next year.

Other planned Eden Projects include Scotland as well as Costa Rica, China and Australia.

And another huge indoor attraction set to open in the UK is Therme Manchester, a massive water resort with pools, slides and spas.

Published on
27/04/2026 – 8:27 GMT+2

Germany’s Dax, France’s CAC 40, Italy’s FTSE MIB and the UK’s FTSE 100 are expected to open in the green, according to IG data, despite peace talks between the US and Iran coming to a halt.

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The White House called off plans to send envoys to Pakistan for more negotiations and US President Donald Trump cited a lack of progress over the weekend.

“If they want, we can talk but we’re not sending people,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”

In addition to monitoring progress in the Middle East, investors will also be keeping across central bank decisions this week, including from the ECB and Federal Reserve.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed

Meanwhile, markets were mixed overnight in the Asia-Pacific region. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index hit a fresh record, surging 1.4% to 60,564.18. The Kospi in South Korea jumped 2.1% to 6,617.94. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.1% lower to 25,951.86 and the Shanghai Composite index was up 0.2% at 4,089.04. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,759.40.

Taiwan’s Taiex rallied 2.6%, helped by a revival of buying of tech shares driven by the boom in artificial intelligence.

Oil prices rise again

In other dealings early Monday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude to be delivered in July, rose $1.44 to $100.57, while US benchmark crude oil added $1.28 to $95.65.

The dollar fell to 159.34 Japanese yen from 159.59. The euro climbed to $1.1723 from $1.1701.

Published on
23/04/2026 – 16:10 GMT+2

Météo-France has initiated an inquiry to determine whether the meteorological infrastructure managed by them was targeted by individuals seeking to influence prediction markets.

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This development follows reports of highly unusual temperature spikes that triggered significant financial payouts on the blockchain-based site Polymarket, where users place wagers on real-world events.

Investigators are examining if the integrity of the national weather network was breached through physical or digital interference, as the precision of the winning bets suggests the actors involved may have had direct control over the reported data.

Online rumors, which remain unverified for the time being, claim the temperature reading was manipulated by someone using a hair dryer to generate a higher temperature.

Polymarket reportedly settles Paris temperature bets on a single Météo-France sensor sitting near the Charles de Gaulle airport perimeter.

On 6 April, the reading from the sensor abruptly rose 4°C in twelve minutes, crossing the 22°C threshold despite data from other sources showing different figures.

A user on Polymarket aggressively bet on readings above 21°C on that specific day, even though the consensus was lower at 18°C, and profited almost €30,000.

A second similar anomaly occurred on 19 April leading to suspicions that the sensor was tampered with.

Météo-France announced that it has filed a complaint with the Roissy air transport gendarmerie brigade “for [the] alteration of the operation of an automated data processing system,” after an analysis of sensor data.

Polymarket suspended its reliance on the compromised weather data source for Paris, shifting its resolution metric from the sensor in Charles de Gaulle airport to the one in Paris-Le Bourget airport.

However, it did not cancel the contracts or refund the bets, leaving the resolved contracts final, even though on previous occasions it has suspended the resolution of certain bets until further clarification on the rules and circumstances.

Decentralised ‘oracles’ and prediction markets

This incident has reignited the debate over the reliability of the “oracles” that feed data to prediction markets in order to settle bets.

In decentralised finance, an oracle is the mechanism that feeds external, real-world information into a smart contract to determine a financial outcome.

Polymarket relies on these feeds to settle its contracts, often pulling data directly from official government websites. If the primary source of that data is corrupted, the betting market lacks any internal mechanism to verify the truth.

Additionally, the decentralised nature of these platforms makes it difficult to freeze assets even if an investigation identifies the individuals behind suspicious trades.

This is the latest case that highlights a new frontier of white-collar crime, where the manipulation of the physical world is used to exploit the vulnerabilities of automated prediction markets in order to win bets on real-world events.

Published on 21/04/2026 – 12:14 GMT+2•Updated
12:16

Oil prices edged slightly higher, European indices traded flat, while Asian markets surged on Tuesday morning as investors monitored potential US-Iran negotiations and the final 48 hours of the current ceasefire.

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At the time of writing, US benchmark crude was up 8.5% from last Friday’s low to around $86.3 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, was around 9.5% higher at roughly $94.5 a barrel.

As for European markets, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 were trading within a 0.2% range.

The UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB were all similarly trading within a 0.3% range.

On Wall Street, US futures were also all trading within a 0.3% range with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading. The S&P 500 closed marginally lower by 0.2% on Monday at 7109 points.

Despite US representatives, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, travelling to Islamabad as part of renewed efforts to secure an agreement, no concrete progress on US-Iran negotiations has been announced.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the current ceasefire ends on Wednesday keeping markets in a state of uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump has asserted that the deal currently being negotiated will be better than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was signed by US President Barack Obama in 2015 and from which Trump withdrew in 2018.

Latest on US-Iran negotiations

Following the arrival of US representatives to Islamabad there has been no developments on the negotiations with Iran.

Even though US President Donald Trump confidently declared that there is a historic deal in the works, public statements from major Iranian figures seem to indicate otherwise.

Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and the person previously heading the talks with the US, made sweeping declarations via X on Monday stating that the country will “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats” and “has prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

Previously, other Iranian representatives have also described US demands as “excessive”.

For the time being, markets eagerly await developments and are highly sensitive to any headlines about the situation.

Associated British Foods and Primark demerger

Although European markets are trading flat, major news in the retail consumer sector has come out of the UK.

Associated British Foods (ABF) is poised to announce the outcome this week of a strategic review into demerging its fast-fashion retail arm Primark, from its diversified food business.

The conglomerate, controlled by the billionaire Weston family, has been working with advisers from Rothschild & Co to assess whether the split would maximise long-term shareholder value.

Analysts argue the move makes sense because of the limited operational synergies between the two divisions: the food arm generates steady cash flows from brands such as Twinings, Patak’s, Jordans cereals and Allied Bakeries, while Primark has pursued aggressive international expansion in a fiercely competitive retail sector.

The decision comes as ABF faces tough trading conditions, with the group warning in January of flat annual sales and declining profits, further pressured by rising costs and the fallout from the Iran conflict, including potential increases in petrochemical prices.

European stock markets slipped on Monday as investor sentiment weakened amid renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. The downturn followed the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship by US forces and Tehran’s vow of retaliation, raising fears that a fragile ceasefire nearing its expiry may collapse.

The situation has been further complicated by Iran’s rejection of fresh peace talks and ongoing uncertainty over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route.

Market Reaction

The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined by 0.8%, reflecting broad-based caution across financial markets. Major indices also moved lower, with Germany’s DAX down 1% and France’s CAC 40 falling 0.9%.

Losses were concentrated in sectors sensitive to geopolitical risk. Travel and leisure stocks led declines, followed by banking and automobile shares, which also came under pressure. In contrast, energy stocks rose as oil prices surged, reflecting concerns about supply disruptions.

Oil and Energy Impact

Crude oil prices jumped sharply, with Brent crude rising more than 5% to around $95 a barrel. The increase reflects heightened fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global energy trade passes.

Energy-dependent European economies remain particularly sensitive to price volatility, adding to investor caution across broader markets.

Geopolitical Tensions

Market sentiment shifted sharply from the previous week’s optimism, when easing signals from the Strait of Hormuz had briefly boosted equities. That optimism faded quickly after renewed maritime incidents and political escalation.

The United States and Iran continue to exchange accusations over ceasefire violations, while diplomatic efforts appear increasingly uncertain. The rejection of fresh negotiations by Iran and continued US pressure have added to concerns that the conflict could intensify further.

Outlook

Financial markets remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East. With the ceasefire approaching its expiration and no clear diplomatic breakthrough in sight, volatility is expected to persist.

Investors are likely to remain cautious until there is greater clarity on both maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and the future of US–Iran relations.

With information from Reuters.

The benchmark US equity indices surged to new territory entering price discovery, reflecting a market that appears to be looking past immediate geopolitical risks in favour of potential de-escalation and corporate strength.

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On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed 0.8% higher at 7,022 points, up on the day and surpassing its previous peak from January of this year.

The S&P 500 is now 11% higher since it bottomed on 30 March and after it first dropped 9% during last month.

The Nasdaq Composite also posted a record, rising 1.6% to over 24,000 points while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.15% lower and continues significantly below its all-time high.

The advance comes despite persistent headwinds.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply, has been severely disrupted since late February following Iranian actions and a subsequent US naval blockade.

Traffic has dropped sharply, with Iran declaring the strait closed to vessels linked to the US, Israel and their allies.

The US Central Command also confirmed its blockade of Iranian ports took full effect earlier this week, stating that “ten vessels have now been turned around and ZERO ships have broken through since the start of the US blockade on Monday”.

Oil prices, while easing in the last two weeks, remain elevated.

At the time of writing, Brent crude stands at around $96.5 per barrel and WTI at $92.5, still well above pre-war levels and contributing to inflationary concerns.

The International Monetary Fund has responded by lowering its global growth outlook. In its latest World Economic Outlook, released on Monday, the IMF cut the 2026 forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% previously projected, citing energy price spikes and supply disruptions.

Headline inflation is now seen at 4.4% for the year, under a reference scenario assuming a short-lived conflict, with risks of even weaker growth and higher prices if tensions escalate and prolong.

The modest decline in energy prices followed reports that the two-week ceasefire is holding and that fresh talks between the US and Iran could resume soon.

US President Donald Trump also indicated that negotiations for lasting peace might restart by the end of the week.

Investors appear to be pricing in an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a contained negative impact of the war in general.

Speaking to Euronews, Alan McIntosh, chief investment officer of Quilter Cheviot Europe, explained that “although the first round of talks led to no agreement, a likely extension of the ceasefire gives optimism that an early resolution can be reached”.

“Assuming a fairly swift end to hostilities and a resumption of oil shipments, the economic damage to global inflation and growth should be fairly limited,” he added.

Why US indices defy the odds

Analysts point to several factors behind the market resilience.

Hopes of a swift end to hostilities have encouraged risk-taking, while corporate America is showing strength. Bank executives highlighted a strong US consumer and a healthy pipeline for deals and initial public offerings.

Earnings expectations for the first quarter have been revised higher, with S&P 500 companies now forecast to report combined profits of over $605 billion (€513bn), up from earlier estimates.

Tech shares, particularly those linked to AI, provided additional support. The Nasdaq’s outsized gain reflected renewed enthusiasm for growth-oriented stocks even as broader economic projections softened.

McIntosh told Euronews that “the capital spending boost relating to AI shows no sign of slowing down so this continues to support US economic growth. We have just started the US quarterly results season and so far there is limited evidence of a negative impact from the current Middle East conflict”.

The indices also include defence companies that have all performed well with the war in the backdrop pushing governments, in particular the US, to increase military budgets.

History also offers context for the current rebound. In past US-involved wars, equity markets have frequently experienced short-term volatility followed by recovery and gains.

During the 2003 Iraq War, for example, the S&P 500 rose over 25% in the first full year after the invasion began.

The Gulf War of 1990-1991 saw an initial 11% decline in the index, but a strong relief rally followed the swift coalition victory, delivering positive returns in the subsequent year.

Similar patterns emerged in the Korean War and Vietnam War eras, where stocks posted solid long-term advances despite prolonged uncertainty.

Data compiled by the Royal Bank of Canada and other sources indicate that, across multiple conflicts, equities rose in the first year of hostilities around 60% of the time.

Markets have tended to focus on eventual outcomes rather than immediate shocks, rewarding resolution and economic adaptability. The latest record for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq underscore this enduring pattern.

While risks remain if the Iran conflict worsens, investors are currently betting that diplomacy and corporate fundamentals will prevail.

European stocks were mostly steady on Wednesday as investors weighed signals from Washington that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran war could be imminent.

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The pan-European Stoxx 600 had ticked down 0.1%, Germany’s Dax edged 0.11% higher and the FTSE 100 climbed 0.11%. The CAC 40 in France fell by a slightly greater margin, at 0.65%.

US President Donald Trump said fresh talks between Washington and Tehran “could be happening over the next two days” in Islamabad, signalling a possible diplomatic breakthrough, and added that the war was “very close to over” — despite continued uncertainty over key sticking points in negotiations.

Asian markets were broadly higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.0% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.7%.

The Shanghai Composite added 0.2%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed, up less than 0.1%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 added 1.2% to its gains from the previous day, and the index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts is now just 0.2% below its record set in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2%.

On Wednesday, benchmark US crude inched up by 1 cent to $91.29 a barrel.

Brent crude added 48 cents to $95.27, or less than 1%, after falling 4.6% the previous day. While that is still above its roughly $70 level from before the war began in late February, it remains well below the peak of $119.

Lower oil prices help reduce costs for businesses across the economy. However, some analysts noted that the war is still ongoing, warning that the optimism may prove unfounded.

“The counterintuitive decline in crude appears driven by growing hopes that a second round of peace talks between Washington and Tehran could soon materialise, after the first attempt fizzled out,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

“Traders are clearly choosing to price in the possibility of de-escalation rather than the immediate reality of restricted flows,” he added.

Asian nations depend on access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that is the main route for crude oil produced in the Persian Gulf to reach customers worldwide. Disruptions there have kept oil off the global market, driving up prices.

Global inflation this year is expected to accelerate to 4.4% from 4.1% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund, which had previously forecast a slowdown to 3.8%.

The IMF also downgraded its forecast for global economic growth to 3.1% this year, from 3.3% projected in January.

Overall, the S&P 500 rose 81.14 points to 6,967.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.74 points to 48,535.99, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 455.35 points to 23,639.08.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased as falling oil prices reduced inflationary pressure. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.30% late Monday.

In currency trading, the US dollar edged up to 159.03 Japanese yen from 158.79 yen. The euro stood at $1.1780, down from $1.1797.

US stocks climbed to the brink of a record high on Tuesday, while oil prices eased as hopes grew that Washington and Tehran may resume talks to end their war.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, leaving it just 0.2% below its January peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2%, tracking broader global market gains.

Investors are betting that renewed diplomacy could prevent a prolonged surge in oil prices and inflation, allowing focus to return to corporate earnings.

Brent crude for June delivery fell 4.6% to $94.79, down from recent highs, though still above pre-war levels.

However, volatility remains high, with markets sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply.