markets

Investors remain wary, as the Wall Street Journal report came on the same day the US president threatened to destroy Iran’s key oil export hub and desalination plants unless it accepts a deal, while also suggesting that diplomacy was making progress.

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The news comes as governments around the world scramble to implement measures to ease the burden of surging fuel prices while also seeking to conserve energy, with around one-fifth of global crude oil and gas passing through the waterway.

The Wall Street Journal, citing administration officials, said Trump and his aides had concluded that a mission to reopen the waterway would extend beyond his four- to six-week timeline. It added that he had decided to focus on targeting Iran’s missiles and navy, before seeking to pressure the country diplomatically to reopen the Strait.

Further fuelling concerns, a drone struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters, causing a fire on Tuesday morning. Dubai authorities said the blaze had already been extinguished, but concerns about a potential oil spill remain.

Maritime traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, remain a key pressure point for global energy supplies. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump has “options available” in response to Tehran’s threats to control the strait, after Iran was reported to have effectively created a “toll booth” there.

Both major oil benchmarks fell on Tuesday, though West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude remained well above $100 a barrel. At 7 a.m. CET, the international benchmark Brent was trading at nearly $113, while WTI crude was above $102 a barrel.

Most equity markets in Asia rose briefly, but by this point Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.3%, South Korea’s Kospi had fallen 3.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng had shed 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite index was down 0.4%.

US futures were up between 0.6% and 0.8%.

In other early Tuesday trading, gold and silver prices rose. Gold was up 0.7% at $4,587.80 an ounce, while silver climbed 2.4% to $72.25 per ounce.

The US dollar stood at 159.61 Japanese yen, down from 159.71 yen. The euro was trading at $1.1472, up from $1.1465.

Published on 30/03/2026 – 7:07 GMT+2•Updated
8:29

European markets are set to open lower on Monday, with futures pointing to declines across major indices as investor sentiment remains cautious amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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As of early morning trading, Germany’s DAX was down around 0.5%, the FTSE 100 fell roughly 0.3%, and France’s CAC 40 was also in negative territory, according to IG data.

The weaker outlook follows losses in Asia, where shares mostly dipped overnight as concerns persisted around soaring oil prices and the potential for further escalation in the US war with Iran.

The declines follow steep losses on Wall Street on Friday, marking a fifth consecutive losing week — the longest such streak in nearly four years.

“US equity markets remained under sustained pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 2.1% for the week and the Nasdaq 100 sliding 3.2%. The Dow Jones held up comparatively better, declining 0.9%, owing to its lower technology weighting. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones have now officially entered correction territory after recording drawdowns of more than 10% below their respective peaks,” IG market analyst Fabien Yip said in a commentary note.

Asia-Pacific markets lower overnight

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 4.5% in early trading, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi slid 3.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.7%, while the Shanghai Composite edged 0.7% lower.

Investor worries have been particularly acute due to the risk of disrupted access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

Benchmark Brent crude rose above $116 a barrel in early trading, marking an increase of more than 50% since the Iran conflict began on 28 February. Prices were just over $70 a barrel when the war started. US benchmark crude was also up, at around $101 a barrel, reflecting continued volatility in global energy markets.

The surge comes as US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of American forces seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main oil terminal in the Persian Gulf. He made the comment in an interview published early Monday by the Financial Times.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the newspaper. “It would also mean we had to be there (on Kharg Island) for a while.”

Asked about Iranian defences there, he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

The US has already launched airstrikes it said targeted military positions on the island. Iran has threatened to launch its own ground invasion of Gulf Arab countries and new attacks if US troops land on its territory.

Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors are set to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the conflict and its consequences. It will mark the fourth time since the start of the war in Iran the G7 has convened at a ministerial level.

As emerging markets head toward their weakest month in years, some asset managers are moving in the opposite direction and adding to positions.

Firms including TT International and AllianceBernstein are buying beaten-down bonds and currencies, betting that central banks will shift

Kano, Nigeria – On a bustling day in northern Nigeria, Marian Shammah made her way to the Sabon Gari Market, one of the largest electronics hubs in Kano state.

The 34-year-old cleaner was in need of a refrigerator, but with rising costs and a meagre income, she saw the second-hand appliances sold at the market as a lifeline.

After locating the one she wanted, she paid the vendor 50,000 naira ($36) and took it home. But just a month later, the freezer collapsed.

“Only the top half of the refrigerator was working, and the freezer wasn’t working,” said Shammah.

Her food spoiled, her savings disappeared, and she was soon back in the market searching for another appliance.

Although Shammah could have bought a new local appliance for just over 30,000 naira ($30) more, she – like millions of Nigerians – believes second-hand products from America and Europe “last longer” than new products sold in Nigeria.

Observers say this trend is part of a larger crisis. Nigeria has become a major destination for the developed world’s discarded electronics – items often near the end of life, sometimes completely dead, and frequently toxic because they contain hazardous materials. When they break down, they add to landfills, worsening an already dire e-waste crisis on the African continent.

Around 60,000 tonnes of used electronics enter Nigeria through key ports each year, with at least 15,700 tonnes already damaged upon arrival, according to the United Nations.

The trade in used electronic goods is powered largely by foreign exporters. A UN tracking study between 2015 and 2016 showed that more than 85 percent of used electronics imported into Nigeria originated from Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, China, the United States, and the Republic of Ireland.

Many of these imports violate international restrictions, like the Basel Convention, an environmental treaty regulating the transboundary movement and disposal of hazardous electronic waste to developing countries with weaker environmental laws.

Across West Africa, the Basel Convention’s “E-Waste Africa Programme”, a project focused on strengthening e-waste management systems across the continent, estimates that Benin, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Liberia, and Nigeria collectively generate between 650,000 and 1,000,000 tonnes of e-waste annually – much of it the result of short-lifespan second-hand imports.

Health risks

The United Nations describes e-waste as any discarded device that uses a battery or plug and contains hazardous substances – like mercury – that can endanger both human health and the environment. Several of the toxic components commonly found in e-waste are included on the list of 10 chemicals of major public health concern maintained by the World Health Organization (WHO).

According to the WHO, used electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) presents a growing public health and environmental threat across Africa, with Nigeria at the centre of the trade.

“Much of the equipment shipped as used electronics is close to becoming waste,” said Rita Idehai, founder of Ecobarter, a Lagos-based environmental NGO, warning that devices imported and sold as affordable second-hand goods often fail shortly after arrival and quickly enter the waste stream.

The consequences are far-reaching. Many imported fridges and air conditioners, for instance, still contain CFC-based and HCFC-based refrigerants such as R-12 and R-22 – chemicals banned in Europe and the US for causing ozone depletion or being linked to cancer, miscarriages, neurological disorders, and long-term soil contamination. These gases live for 12 to 100 years, meaning leaking equipment adds to a multi-generational environmental burden.

After these imported items stop working or fall apart, informal recyclers then dismantle the electronics with their bare hands, Al Jazeera observed. In Kano, the recyclers inhale poisonous fumes and manage the heavy metals without protection. Their work earns them a meagre 3,500–14,000 naira ($2.50-$10) per week, they said, and the after-effects linger – including persistent coughing, chest pain, headaches, eye irritation, and breathing difficulties after long hours of burning cables and dismantling electronic devices.

The health crisis extends into Kano’s communities.

Among casual recyclers and residents who live close to e-waste dumps, many report symptoms that range from chronic headaches and skin irritation to breathing issues, miscarriages and neurological concerns, according to health surveys done by the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. These ailments are consistent with longtime toxic exposure, the researchers said.

Recent field assessments conducted by Nigeria’s Federal University Dutse also stressed that in and around Kano state, where the Sabon Gari Market is located, there are rising levels of heavy metals in soil and drainage channels.

Dr Ushakuma Michael Anenga, a gynaecologist at the Benue State Teaching Hospital and second vice president of the Nigerian Medical Association, warned that toxic exposure from informal e-waste recycling poses grave health risks to communities in Kano.

“Exposure to heavy metals and refrigerant gases in e-waste causes extreme brief and long-term health issues, generally affecting the breathing and renal organs,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Common casual practices like exposed burning and dismantling result in direct, high-level exposure for workers and nearby residents. Children and pregnant girls are particularly inclined due to the fact that those toxicants can disrupt development or even skip from mother to unborn baby, [while] recyclers who work without defensive equipment face repeated, frequently irreversible damage.”

Profits over protection

In Sabon Gari Market, second-hand electronics are advertised as less costly lifelines for households and poor business owners burdened by inflation.

Many customers say foreign-used home equipment appears sturdier and seems like better value for money than new imports from the developing world. Meanwhile, others are just looking for cheap options in difficult economic times.

“I usually go for second-hand or foreign-used electronics because brand-new ones are too expensive for me,” Umar Hussaini, who sells used electronics at the market, told Al Jazeera.

“Sometimes you can get them for half the price of new ones, and they look almost the same, so it feels like a good deal at the time.”

But the last refrigerator he bought stopped cooling after just three months. With no warranty or guarantee, the seller refused responsibility.

“For weeks, we couldn’t store food properly at home, and we ended up buying food daily, which was more expensive,” he said. “However, I have to buy another one again.”

For small business owners like Salisu Saidu, the losses can be even more devastating. He bought a used freezer for his shop, believing it had been serviced. Within weeks, it failed.

“I lost a lot of frozen food, which meant I lost money and customers,” he told Al Jazeera.

Around his neighbourhood, broken electronics are often dumped out in the street, sometimes emitting smoke or sparks.

“There’s also a lot of electronic waste piling up around,” he said, calling for tighter import controls, proper certification, and mandatory warranties to protect buyers from being sold what he described as “damaged goods disguised as fairly used”.

Bought as bargains, sold as burdens

At Sabon Gari Market, another vendor, Umar Abdullahi, is surrounded by imported refrigerators, air conditioners and washing machines stacked tightly together.

The products in his shop are advertised as “London use” or “Direct Belgium”, while he negotiates the sale of a double-door fridge for 120,000 naira ($87).

Abdullahi’s store is where Shammah returned after the refrigerator she bought failed. But he admits that much of what he sells to customers arrives unchecked.

“We buy them untested from suppliers in Europe, and we also sell them untested so we can make our profit,” he told Al Jazeera.

This despite the fact that international rules under the Basel Convention, as well as Nigerian environmental regulations, prohibit the shipment of material considered e-waste – with penalties including fines and jail terms.

Nwamaka Ejiofor, a spokesperson for Nigeria’s National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (NESREA), said the country does not permit the import of e-waste. However, the entry of used electronics is allowed under regulated conditions.

“The importation of used electrical and electronic equipment is regulated and may be allowed only where such equipment meets prescribed conditions, including functionality and compliance requirements,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Nigeria applies a combination of regulatory, administrative and enforcement measures to ensure that imported used electronics comply with national law and the country’s international obligations,” she added, listing out measures including environmental regulations, cargo inspection and verifying that imported equipment is “functional”.

However, despite this, some traders find loopholes in the system, including declaring cargo they plan to sell as personal belongings or second-hand household goods to avoid scrutiny.

Although NESREA says enforcement has improved, critics say the steady flow of mediocre goods continues largely unchecked. Even dealers at Sabon Gari Market acknowledge that most appliances are sold “as is”, without certification or guarantees.

‘Loopholes’

Behind the second-hand electronics trade is a network of collectors and exporters who source discarded appliances across Europe.

Baban Ladan Issa, who ships used electronics from Ireland to Nigeria, said items are gathered from weekend markets, private homes that are replacing old gadgets, and contractors clearing out equipment from offices, hotels and hospitals.

“Some suppliers mix working and damaged goods together,” he told Al Jazeera, noting that while he tries to avoid faulty items, not all buyers do the same.

Once assembled, shipments worth millions of naira are sent to Lagos through ships then down to sellers in the market in Kano state, sometimes packed in containers or hidden inside vehicles to reduce inspection risks.

Shipping records seen by Al Jazeera showed consignments labelled as “personal effects”, a classification that can limit detailed checks at ports.

Chinwe Okafor, an environmental policy analyst based in Abuja, said the problem is systemic.

“Exporting nations regularly take advantage of loopholes by means of labelling nonfunctional e-waste as ‘second-hand goods’ or ‘for repair,’” she told Al Jazeera. “In some instances, research estimates that over 75 percent of what arrives in developing countries is truly junk.”

“This permits wealthy countries to keep away from highly-priced recycling at home while pushing unsafe materials into nations with weaker safeguards.”

Ibrahim Adamu, a programme officer with the NGO Ecobarter, added that mislabelling, poor inspection technology and corruption at ports make enforcement difficult.

“The highest profits are captured by exporters and brokers who arbitrage the gap between disposal costs in Europe or Asia and the strong demand for ‘tokunbo’ goods in Nigeria,” he said, using the local name for used imported electronics.

To forestall this, he said Nigeria “must reinforce border inspections” and implement a policy whereby producers and manufacturers bear financial responsibility. At the same time, “the international network has to adopt binding bans that [hold] manufacturers and exporters responsible”, Adamu said.

Little oversight, mounting risks

Although Nigeria has regulations governing the import of electrical and electronic equipment, enforcement gaps keep exposing markets like Kano’s Sabon Gari to ageing and near-end-of-life appliances, locals say.

Ibrahim Bello, a used electronics importer with a decade in the business, said many shipments that arrive from Europe are in less-than-ideal condition.

“Around 20 to 30 percent of the items we receive have issues when they arrive,” he told Al Jazeera. “Some are already damaged, while others stop working after a short time because they are old.

“That’s just part of the business.”

Retailer Chinedu Peter gave similar estimates. “From what I’ve experienced, maybe 40 percent of the electronics have some fault as they come,” he said, adding that environmental and protection checks don’t happen as they are meant to.

“Such a lot of items enter without special checks.”

Both men feel that clearer rules and certified testing systems will improve trust. But until then, thousands of ageing, unsuitable products will continue to flood Nigeria.

Shammah, back at Sabon Gari Market just weeks after her refrigerator broke, was once again searching through rows of stacked appliances, hoping her next purchase might last longer than the last.

“I don’t really trust these fairly used appliances again, but I still have to buy something because we need it at home,” she told Al Jazeera.

“This time I’m thinking … I can buy a new one from a proper shop, even if it takes longer, because I don’t want to lose my money again.”

Asian stock markets saw major declines on Monday as gold futures dropped 8% and crude oil prices continued to climb amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East.

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As the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global supply, benchmark US crude rose above $100 a barrel on Monday morning in Europe.

Brent crude, the international standard, went up to more than $113 a barrel. The price of Brent crude has zigzagged lately from about $70 per barrel before the war began to as high as $119.50.

European stock indexes opened with losses, with the FTSE in London losing 1.5%, the CAC-40 in Paris being down by 1.6%, and the DAX in Frankfurt dropping by 2% at the opening.

Earlier on Monday, the International Energy Agency warned that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war and that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries were damaged.

Meanwhile, the de-escalation of the conflict is nowhere near in sight.

Trump warned over the weekend that the US would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, prompting Tehran to say it would respond to any such strike with attacks on US and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets in the region.

“Trump’s ultimatum and Iran’s retaliatory warnings point to a widening conflict that keeps energy disruption and market volatility elevated, with no clear off-ramp in sight,” said Ng Jing Wen, analyst at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.

In Europe, the benchmark natural gas futures were trading above €60 per MWh at the market open.

This follows last week’s gains as escalating threats to Middle Eastern energy facilities heightened fears of deeper supply disruptions.

In Asia, stock markets were also significantly impacted by the uncertainty around the Middle East crisis, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropping 3.5%. In Taiwan, the Taiex shed 2.5%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 6.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 3.8% and the Shanghai Composite declined 3.6%.

Higher oil prices, which also shook stock markets on Friday, dashed hopes for a possible upcoming cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, analysts said. Before the war, traders were betting that the Fed would cut rates at least twice this year. Central banks in Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom also recently held their interest rates steady.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Friday to close its fourth straight losing week, its longest such streak in a year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 443 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2%.

On Wall Street, roughly three out of every four stocks in the S&P 500 fell on Friday.

Stocks of smaller companies, which can feel the pinch of higher interest rates more than their bigger rivals, led the way lower. The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks fell a market-leading 2.3%.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury finished last week with a jump to 4.38% Friday from 4.25% late Thursday and from just 3.97% before the war started.

The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Fed might do, rose to 3.88% from 3.79%.

In currency trading, the US dollar rose to 159.53 Japanese yen from 159.22 yen. The euro cost $1.1526, down from $1.1571.

Key indexes in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong tumble as Iran threatens attacks on energy infrastructure across region.

Stock markets in the Asia Pacific have fallen sharply amid US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum warning Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the annihilation of its energy infrastructure.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, in early trading on Monday.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index tumbled about 2 percent.

Australia’s ASX 200 dropped about 1.6 percent, while the NZX 50 in New Zealand dipped about 1.3 percent.

Futures on Wall Street, which are traded outside of regular market hours, saw moderate losses, with those tied to the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite down about 0.5 percent.

Oil prices remained volatile amid fears of further disruption to global energy supplies.

Futures for Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose more than 1.5 percent to top $114 a barrel, before easing to about $112 as of 02:00 GMT.

Trump on Saturday threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants within 48 hours if Tehran does not end its effective blockade of the strait, through which about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas exports usually transit.

Tehran has pledged to completely close the waterway, which is still being transited by a small number of Chinese, Indian and Pakistani-flagged vessels, and launch retaliatory attacks on energy and water infrastructure across the region if Trump follows through on his threat.

Based on the timing of Trump’s warning on Truth Social, the deadline for his ultimatum is set to expire at 23:44 GMT on Monday.

Trump’s threat has added to fears of a cascading global energy crisis as the US and Israel’s war on Iran approaches the one-month mark with no clear end in sight.

Oil prices have surged more than 50 percent since the start of the war, which began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28.

Analysts have warned that energy prices are likely to rise significantly further if the strait remains effectively closed, with some observers predicting oil to hit $150 or even $200 a barrel.

Trump on Sunday held a phone call with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss the situation in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the strait.

The two leaders agreed that unblocking the strait is “essential to ensure stability in the global energy market”, Starmer’s office said in a statement.

Trump has provided conflicting messages about the goals of the war and how long it might last.

Hours before issuing his ultimatum on Saturday, Trump said that his administration was “very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down” military operations against Iran.

Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani last week told reporters that officials had detailed plans for at least three more weeks of war.

Khan Younis, Gaza Strip – Historic landmarks often withstand centuries of volatile change, but when rockets and missiles fall, even the most enduring stones become fragile.

For generations of families in Gaza’s southern city of Khan Younis, the Grain Market was the first stop when they went shopping.

Reaching it meant walking past the historic Barquq Castle, a centuries-old structure dating back to 1387 and the very foundation of Khan Younis.

But for residents, the castle was more than an old monument; it was a familiar landmark marking the entrance to one of the city’s liveliest commercial spaces.

The aromatic scent of spices and dried herbs would accompany any walk towards the Grain Market.

But that was before Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza began. Israeli attacks inflicted heavy damage on the Grain Market and the Barquq Castle. The market has now been reduced to shattered alleys, with dust and heavy silence filling the air.

Sitting in his store along a row of damaged old shops, 60-year-old Nahed Barbakh, one of the city’s oldest and most well-known traders of staple food supplies, spent decades watching customers stream through the market. Now, only a handful pass by his shop.

“I’ve been in this spot for decades, day in and day out, watching people bring life to this place,” Nahed said. “Look at it now – it’s empty. These days, there shouldn’t even be space to walk because of the crowds preparing for Eid.”

He paused before gesturing towards the nearby castle.

“We always felt the weight of history here because we are so close to Barquq Castle. Now that history and life itself have been struck by the occupation.”

But Israeli fire did not take into account the market’s historic status. The Grain Market, long considered the economic heart of Khan Younis, was also among the first sites of destruction during the second month of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. More than two years of Israeli bombardment and repeated waves of displacement have left the market unrecognisable.

“The occupation killed many of our friends who worked here,” Nahed said quietly. “Those who survived have been financially broken. That’s why you see most of these shops are still closed.”

He pointed to some shelves behind him.

“My shop used to be fully stocked with goods at its high capacity. We even had extra warehouses to supply what people needed, especially during the busiest seasons.”

Before he could finish his sentence, a deafening blast interrupted him — the sound of an Israeli tank fire.

“And this is the biggest reason people are afraid to return,” Nahed said abruptly. “The yellow line is only a few hundred metres away from this street. At any moment, bullets can reach here.”

The yellow line is the name given to the demarcation line behind which Israeli forces withdrew as part of the first phase of October’s ceasefire agreement. It effectively divides Gaza into two, and Palestinians have repeatedly been shot for approaching it.

The yellow line has divided Khan Younis, dramatically reshaping the city’s geography. Israel has repeatedly shifted the line, moving it deeper into Gaza.

The Grain Market, once firmly at the centre of urban life, now sits close to the yellow line.

What used to be the city’s commercial heart has effectively turned into its edge, where people hesitate to walk, leaving the revival of daily commerce life a distant prospect.

Centuries of endurance

The Grain Market traces its origins to the late 14th century, when the Mamluk ruler Younis al-Nawruzi established Khan Younis in 1387 as a strategic stop along the trade route linking Egypt and the Levant.

Built as an extension of the Barquq Castle, which functioned as a caravanserai for travelling merchants, the market became a central commercial hub where traders and travellers exchanged goods, moving between Africa, the Levant and beyond.

The Grain Market occupies roughly 2,400sq metres (25,830sq feet). Its single-floor shops line a central street running east to west, intersected by narrow alleys branching towards smaller courtyards. The buildings preserve elements of their original construction, including sandstone walls and traditional binding materials that have survived centuries of repairs and modifications.

Over time, the market evolved into the primary commercial centre of Khan Younis, adapting to modern commerce while retaining its historic character.

But today, many of its shops stand damaged or shuttered.

According to Gaza’s Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities, the market is now among more than 200 heritage sites damaged in attacks by Israeli forces across the Gaza Strip since October 2023.

At the southern end of the Grain Market, where rows of vegetable stalls once overflowed with fresh produce, only one makeshift stand has opened.

Om Saed al-Farra, a local, stepped cautiously towards the stall, inspecting the small piles of vegetables laid out on a wooden crate. The expression on her face reflected more than surprise; it was disbelief at what the market had become.

“The market is deplorable now,” she said. “There used to be many stalls here and many choices for people.”

She gestured towards the empty stretch of the market’s vegetable section, once one of its busiest corners.

“These days were once filled with extensive joyful preparations for Eid, when families crowded the market to shop for food and essentials,” al-Farra said. “Now the market feels unusually gloomy, its stalls largely empty and its familiar vibrance gone. Everything is limited. Even if you have money, there are hardly any places left here for us to buy from.”

Economic collapse under fire

Although parts of the market’s infrastructure remain physically standing, many traders have not returned.

According to Khan Younis Mayor Alaa el-Din al-Batta, the Grain Market was once one of the city’s most vital economic lifelines.

“Just as it once connected continents, even under blockade, it continued to connect people across Gaza,” al-Batta said. “It holds a deep place in the memory of our residents. But once again, the occupation has brought destruction, targeting both our history and a critical lifeline for the people.”

For nearly two decades, Israel has controlled Gaza’s land crossings, airspace and coastline under a strict blockade. Since the genocide began in October 2023, restrictions have tightened further, pushing businesses and trade to collapse.

In a narrow western alley where scattered stones cover the ground, two cloaks hung outside a small shop. Inside, 57-year-old tailor Mohammad Abdul Ghafour leaned over his sewing machine, carefully stitching a torn shirt.

His shop was the only one open in the grey alley.

“I’ve been here since childhood,” Abdul Ghafour said. “My father opened this shop in 1956, and I grew up learning the profession right here in the market.”

Israel’s bombardment not only destroyed the place where he worked; it also killed dozens of his family members.

“On December 7, 2023, Israel committed a horrific massacre against my family,” he said. “I lost my father, my brothers, and more than 30 relatives.”

Burying his family members was only the beginning of the long, painful separation from the market and his shop.

“We were forced into displacement more than 12 times. I had many chances to leave as two of my children live in Europe,” Abdul Ghafour said. “But all I could think about was returning to my shop.”

When Israeli forces withdrew to the yellow line, he came back alone.

“I cleaned the street by myself. And if I had to do it again, I would. Whoever loves his land never abandons it,” he said. “I charge my batteries for my machine and come every day. My return encouraged some residents to come back too. But people still need shelter, water, and basic services before more families return.”

Resident Mohammad Shahwan stood in Nahed’s shop checking a list of items he hoped to buy.

“We left the crowded al-Mawasi as soon as we could to return to our damaged home,” he said, referring to the stretch of coastal Khan Younis that thousands of Palestinians have been forcibly displaced to. “But the number of residents here is still very small because of the destruction and lack of services.”

Still, Mohammad Shahwan said he was relieved to find the shop open at all.

“For the first time in two years, we’ll make traditional Eid biscuits,” he said, holding the list of ingredients. “The last two Eids were dark for my family after we lost my 17-year-old son, Salama. He and his aunt were killed by an Israeli strike.”

He could have bought the now-expensive supplies elsewhere, he said, but returning to the Grain Market carried its own meaning. “I wanted to buy them from here, just like we always did.”

Waiting for restoration

According to Mayor al-Batta, restoring the historic market will require a major reconstruction effort.

“The Grain Market needs a comprehensive restoration process to function again,” he said. “So far, our work has only been limited to clearing rubble and delivering limited water supplies for returning residents.”

The rebuilding process will require specialised materials and expert restoration work to preserve what is left of the historic structure. Municipal workers have already collected leftover stones from the ruins in the hope that they can one day be used in rebuilding parts of the market.

But reconstruction remains impossible under current conditions.

“More than five months have passed since the ceasefire began, yet not a single bag of cement has entered Gaza,” al-Batta said.

“We want to restore our historic identity and revive life for our people. But neither can happen while Israeli restrictions and violations continue.”

Hundreds of tankers sit idle on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran has effectively closed the waterway, pushing oil prices above $100 – the highest since 2022, after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Oil tanker traffic in the strait, through which one-fifth of global oil passes, has plunged after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Tehran on February 28. Asian countries, including India, China and Japan, as well as some European countries, source large portions of their energy needs from the Gulf. A disruption in supply will rattle the global economy.

With an aim to cushion from the shock, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated drawdown in the agency’s history. But it has failed to push the prices down.

The agency had released about 182 million barrels after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to stablise the oil prices.

According to the agency, oil shipments through the strategic waterway have fallen to less than 10 percent of pre-war levels, threatening one of the most critical arteries in the global energy system.

IEA members collectively hold about 1.25 billion barrels in government-controlled emergency reserves, alongside roughly 600 million barrels in industry stocks tied to government obligations.

A large number in a massive market

The figure may appear vast, but it shrinks quickly against the scale of global energy demand.

“This feels like a small bandage on a large wound,” energy strategist Naif Aldandeni said, describing the world’s largest coordinated emergency oil release as governments scramble to steady markets shaken by war.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates world consumption of petroleum and other liquids will average 105.17 million barrels per day in 2026. At that rate, 400 million barrels would theoretically cover just four days of global consumption.

Even when compared with normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – around 20 million barrels per day – the released oil equals only about 20 days of typical flows.

Aldandeni told Al Jazeera that emergency reserves can calm panic in markets but cannot replace the lost function of a disrupted shipping corridor.

“The release may soften the shock and calm nerves temporarily,” he said, “but it will remain limited as long as the fundamental problem — the freedom of supply and tanker movement through Hormuz – remains unresolved.”

Oil prices reflect those anxieties. Brent crude ended trading on Friday at $103.14 per barrel, after surging to nearly $120 earlier as fears of disrupted production and shipping intensified.

Geopolitical risk premium

Oil expert Nabil al-Marsoumi said the price surge cannot be explained by supply fundamentals alone.

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz added roughly $40 per barrel as a geopolitical risk premium above what market fundamentals would normally dictate,” he told Al Jazeera.

From that perspective, releasing strategic reserves serves primarily as a temporary tool to dampen that premium rather than fundamentally rebalance the market.

Prices above $100 per barrel are uncomfortable for major consuming economies already struggling to curb inflation and protect economic growth.

Recent EIA projections suggest global demand has not yet declined significantly because of the war, remaining close to 105 million barrels per day. The market pressure, therefore, stems less from falling consumption and more from fears of supply shortages and delays in deliveries to refineries and consumers.

Threats to oil infrastructure

The latest escalation could deepen those fears.

United States President Donald Trump said on Friday that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) had “executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island”.

He added that “for reasons of decency” he had “chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island”, but warned Washington could reconsider that restraint if Iran continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

CENTCOM confirmed the operation, stating US forces had struck “more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, while preserving the oil infrastructure”.

Iranian officials have meanwhile warned they would target energy facilities linked to the US across the region if Iranian oil infrastructure comes under direct attack.

Kharg Island is not simply a military location. It serves as the primary export terminal for Iranian crude, making it a critical node in the country’s oil supply network.

If attacks move from obstructing shipping to targeting export infrastructure itself, the crisis could shift from a chokepoint disruption scenario to one involving direct losses of production and export capacity.

In such circumstances, the oil released from emergency reserves would act only as a temporary bridge rather than a lasting solution to lost supply.

Major oil companies such as QatarEnergy, the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Bahrain state oil company Bapco have shut production and declared force majeure, while Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, and UAE state oil company ADNOC have shut down their refineries.

Limits of emergency reserves

Even under a less severe scenario – where maritime disruption persists but infrastructure remains intact — the ability of strategic reserves to stabilise markets remains constrained by logistics.

The US Department of Energy said the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 415.4 million barrels as of 18 February 2026. Its maximum drawdown capacity is 4.4 million barrels per day, and oil requires about 13 days to reach US markets after a presidential release order.

That means even the world’s largest emergency stockpile cannot flood the market with crude immediately. The release must move through pipelines, shipping networks and refining capacity before reaching consumers.

Aldandeni said the current intervention would likely produce only a temporary stabilising effect, while al-Marsoumi warned that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz – or the spread of threats to other chokepoints such as the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea could quickly send prices further higher.

Black smoke could be seen in Dubai’s financial district where witnesses reported hearing explosions on Friday morning. Authorities there said a building was hit by debris from an intercepted missile.

The index provider reviews the S&P 500 every quarter using rigorous criteria on market capitalisation, profitability, liquidity and sector balance to ensure it reflects the largest and most representative top 500 US companies.

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The latest update will bring Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent Corp. and EchoStar Corporation into the index.

They replace Match Group, Molina Healthcare, Lamb Weston Holdings and Paycom Software, with the changes taking effect before the market opens on Monday 23 March.

With trillions of dollars in assets tracking the S&P 500, the rebalance typically prompts buying from passive funds, often providing a short-term lift to new members.

Shortly after the S&P Global announcement, on Friday 6 March, all four companies’ shares rose on average 8% as investors began anticipating the increased flow.

Three out of the four incoming firms supply critical infrastructure for the AI boom, from power and cooling systems to high-speed optical components.

According to S&P Global, the changes show how sustained AI investment has become a structural force in the market, to the point that it is reshaping the index composition.

Big Tech is guiding for roughly €600bn in AI spending this year alone.

Vertiv

Vertiv Holdings specialises in critical digital infrastructure, offering power management, thermal management and modular systems that support high-density computing in data centres.

The company has seen explosive demand for liquid cooling and high-power solutions as AI workloads drive energy consumption far beyond conventional levels.

According to Vertiv’s fourth quarter 2025 earnings, released in February, organic orders grew 252% year-on-year in the final quarter, pushing its backlog to $15bn (€13bn) –– a 109% rise from the previous year.

The book-to-bill ratio reached approximately 2.9 times and full-year 2026 guidance points to organic sales growth of 27% to 29%, indicating very strong requisition.

The firm’s strong performance reflects its central role in enabling the hyperscalers’ expansion of AI infrastructure.

Inclusion in the S&P 500 is expected to increase visibility and liquidity through passive fund inflows. This milestone underscores Vertiv’s evolution into a key enabler of the physical infrastructure powering AI growth.

Lumentum

Lumentum Holdings develops advanced optical components, lasers and transceivers that deliver the ultra-high-speed connectivity required inside data centres and across communications networks.

Its products are essential for handling the massive bandwidth demands of AI model training and inference.

In early March, Nvidia announced a multi-year strategic partnership with Lumentum that includes a $2bn (€1.7bn) investment to expand capacity, advance US-based manufacturing and deepen research and development collaborations.

This partnership came alongside multibillion-dollar purchase commitments for advanced laser components.

The S&P 500 addition elevates the profile of optical technologies as a foundational layer in next-generation AI infrastructure.

For Lumentum, the move reinforces its position as a critical supplier in the race to scale AI systems efficiently and at unprecedented speeds.

Coherent

Coherent Corp. focuses on photonics and laser technologies, with a strong emphasis on silicon photonics and high-speed optical interconnects designed for large-scale AI computing clusters.

The company has repositioned its portfolio to tackle latency and power-efficiency challenges in hyperscale environments.

Similar to Lumentum, the company recently disclosed a parallel strategic partnership with Nvidia, also including a $2bn (€1.7bn) investment and multibillion-dollar purchase commitments for advanced optics.

The collaboration targets technologies vital for future data centre architectures and supports expanding US manufacturing.

The S&P 500 inclusion recognises Coherent’s transformation and the structural demand from global AI build-outs.

Greater institutional interest and enhanced liquidity are widely expected once the rebalance takes effect. This development cements the company’s role as an indispensable partner in the infrastructure underpinning rapid advances in AI.

EchoStar

EchoStar Corporation is the outlier of the group as it is the only company being added to the S&P 500 that is not directly tied to the expansion of AI infrastructure.

The firm delivers satellite communications, video entertainment and broadband services, primarily through its DISH network operations.

The addition brings dedicated exposure to the communications sector, balancing the heavy tilt toward AI infrastructure providers in this quarterly update.

In line with its fellow entrants, EchoStar has delivered triple-digit gains over the past year, reflecting resilience in the telecom space amid broader technology shifts.

The move complements the data centre focus of the other new companies and underscores how communications continues to shape the composition of the US’ flagship equity index.

The quarterly adjustments follow a pattern of the S&P 500 evolving alongside technological shifts. While passive inflows deliver an immediate boost, the longer-term impact lies in better alignment with the sectors driving the modern economy.

Investors placed strong bets on Tuesday that Donald Trump could bring the war in Iran to a rapid conclusion, even as both sides escalated threats. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran declared that no oil would leave the Middle East until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease, prompting Trump to threaten that any attempt to block tanker traffic would be met with strikes “twenty times harder.”

Despite the rhetoric, markets quickly reversed the historic surge in crude prices seen on Monday. Brent crude briefly surged to nearly $120 a barrel, a level not seen since mid‑2022, but fell back to around $92 by Tuesday morning. Futures volumes were low, reflecting both caution and the fact that traders were recalibrating risk based on Trump’s comments that the U.S. was “very far ahead” of his initial four- to five-week timeframe for the conflict. Asian and European share prices staged a recovery from earlier steep falls, signaling that markets were treating Trump’s statements as a de-escalation signal, even if the on-the-ground situation remained dire.

Analysts noted that while the market’s reaction reflects optimism about a short conflict, underlying risks remain. Suvro Sarkar of DBS Bank observed that benchmark Middle Eastern grades like Murban and Dubai crude remain above $100 per barrel, meaning the fundamental pressures on supply have not dissipated.

On the Ground: Intensified Conflict

Meanwhile, the human and strategic realities on the ground remain stark. Tehran residents described the heaviest bombardment of the conflict yet, with strikes across the city leaving civilians fearful and homes damaged. One resident said, “It was like hell. They were bombing everywhere, every part of Tehran… my children are afraid to sleep now. We have nowhere to go.”

Israel is simultaneously operating under the assumption that Trump could end the war at any moment, sources familiar with its military plans told Reuters. This has encouraged Israeli forces to maximize damage on Iranian targets before any potential ceasefire, highlighting the tension between the short-term operational calculus and long-term strategic objectives.

Iran’s appointment of hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader signals defiance against U.S. pressure to influence Iranian leadership, underscoring Tehran’s unwillingness to yield to external demands despite the military pressure.

Strategic Implications: Oil, Leadership, and Geopolitics

The war has effectively halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz policy measures such as easing sanctions on Russia and releasing strategic oil reserves, are interpreted by markets as mitigating factors that could prevent a prolonged energy crisis.

However, the underlying political and military dynamics suggest that a rapid resolution may not meet all stated U.S. objectives. Ending the conflict quickly to restore oil flows would likely leave Iran’s leadership intact, which contrasts with Trump’s previous maximalist demands for influence over Iran’s succession. Israel’s objectives diverge further, as it continues to seek regime change and to weaken Tehran’s ability to strike beyond its borders, while U.S. officials emphasize missile and nuclear containment.

Human and Regional Costs

The war has already inflicted significant human costs. Iran’s U.N. ambassador reported at least 1,332 civilian deaths and thousands wounded since the airstrikes began. Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting Gulf states have damaged infrastructure, closed airports, and disrupted hotels, while retaliatory Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed scores amid ongoing efforts to neutralize Hezbollah.

Domestically, Iran has suppressed dissent and anti-government protests following the death of Ali Khamenei, further complicating the social dynamics that external military action interacts with. Large-scale rallies in support of Mojtaba Khamenei demonstrate public mobilization in favor of the hardline leadership, which may limit the U.S. and Israel’s capacity to influence internal political outcomes even after the war concludes.

Analysis: Financial, Strategic, and Geopolitical Interplay

Markets are betting on a short conflict because of political signaling, but the broader picture is far more complex. Oil prices remain sensitive to supply disruptions, and the potential for renewed escalations persists. The market response highlights how sentiment can temporarily override fundamental risks, yet volatility is likely to continue as long as strategic objectives, military operations, and leadership decisions remain unresolved.

From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict illustrates the tension between military objectives and economic consequences. A rapid end to the war would stabilize energy markets and global growth expectations but may leave U.S. and Israeli goals partially unmet. Conversely, prolonging the conflict to pursue maximalist aims risks a sustained oil shock, regional instability, and wider economic fallout, echoing lessons from past Middle East crises in the 1970s.

Analysts emphasize that energy markets, geopolitical strategy, and human costs are tightly intertwined: traders respond quickly to political statements, but the underlying realities strikes, leadership decisions, and supply chain vulnerabilities ensure that uncertainty will remain high. The delicate balance between military pressure, diplomacy, and market psychology will determine whether the Iran conflict resolves quickly or evolves into a more protracted crisis.

With information from Reuters.

Oil prices fell sharply after US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the war against Iran could be short-lived and that Washington was considering waiving oil-related sanctions on certain countries to ease pressure on crude markets.

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“So in some countries, we’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out,” Trump told reporters, without naming which countries were under consideration.

The United States currently maintains sanctions affecting oil trade against a small group of countries: Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Syria and North Korea.

Trump also said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday to discuss the war and other issues.

Oil prices retreated from recent highs, with both WTI crude and Brent futures falling more than 9%. Brent was trading just below $90 during the European morning, while WTI stood at $85.40 a barrel.

Prices had briefly surged to their highest level since 2022, nearing $120 a barrel, a day after Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in succession to his late father.

Investors read the appointment as a signal that Tehran was digging in, ten days into the war launched by the United States and Israel.

But prices later fell, and US stocks rose on hopes that the war with Iran may not last much longer.

“We took a little excursion” to the Middle East, “to get rid of some evil. And, I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion,” Trump told Republican lawmakers at his golf club near Miami.

However, he left open the possibility of an escalation of fighting if global oil supplies are disrupted by the Islamic Republic, which chose a new hardline supreme leader.

Hours later, Trump posted on social media.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America twenty times harder than they have been hit thus far.”

In an apparent response to Trump’s remarks, Iranian state media reported that Ali Mohammad Naini, a spokesperson for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, said that “Iran will determine when the war ends”.

Stock markets cheer the news

All major European stock markets opened sharply higher.

The FTSE 100 in London gained more than 1.1%, the CAC 40 in Paris jumped 1.9%, the DAX in Frankfurt rose 2%, benchmark indices in Madrid and Milan were up 2.5%, and the Stoxx 600 gained 1.7%.

Asian shares also rebounded on Tuesday after sharp declines the previous day, as investors wagered the conflict might be short-lived.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 added 2.9%, also buoyed by revised government data showing Japan’s economy grew at an annual pace of 1.3% in the final quarter of last year — well above the initial estimate of 0.2%, driven by solid business investment.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 5.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.1%.

“Today is the rebound — obviously [after] positive comments from President Trump overnight. We’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel for the war,” said Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan.

“Volatility is going to remain with us, but things are certainly looking a lot brighter today.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.1% and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%.

Share prices have been swinging largely in tandem with oil, which has gyrated as the conflict has deepened.

The central uncertainty for markets is how high crude prices will go and how long they will stay there, given ongoing disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure.

If oil remains very high for an extended period, households already stretched by inflation could come under severe pressure, while companies would face sharply higher bills for fuel and logistics.

The risk is a worst-case scenario for the global economy: stagflation, where growth stagnates and inflation stays elevated.

Attention has focused in particular on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s coast through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes on a typical day.

Iran has threatened to attack ships sailing through the strait.

If it remains closed for even a few weeks, oil could push to $150 a barrel or higher, according to strategists at Macquarie Research. Trump said separately that he was “thinking about taking it over,” according to CBS.

In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to 4.10% from 4.15% late Friday after briefly rising above 4.20% on Monday morning as oil price fears pushed yields higher.

Yields retreated when crude eased later in the day.

In currency markets, the dollar edged up to 157.48 yen from 157.67, while the euro was unchanged at $1.1638.

Gold rose 1.7% to $5,191.8 an ounce. Cryptocurrency markets also gained, with most leading tokens up between 1% and 2%.

Bitcoin outperformed, rising 2.6% to $70,863 according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index.

Published on 09/03/2026 – 17:06 GMT+1•Updated
17:14

G7 finance ministers discussed a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves on Monday but failed to reach agreement, with France’s Roland Lescure saying the group was “not there yet” on a deal.

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The G7 was exploring a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves to tamp down fears of an impending shortage but stopped short of a deal.

Japan’s finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) explicitly requested the coordinated release during the G7 meeting, according to Bloomberg.

Brent crude briefly hit $119.50 a barrel on Monday morning, its highest level since 2022, having jumped roughly 25% since Friday as the Iran war intensified, raising fears over global production and shipping.

At the time of writing, oil prices pared gains and are trading slightly below $100 a barrel, as markets remain highly volatile.

Stock markets fell worldwide on concerns the global economy would not be able to absorb a sustained oil price shock.

Equity markets drop over uncertainty

At the open on Monday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, coming off its worst week since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.5% and the Nasdaq composite 1.2% lower.

The most immediate pain on Wall Street is hitting companies with large fuel bills. Carnival lost 7.3%, United Airlines sank 6.9% and Old Dominion Freight fell 3.8%.

Retailers dependent on long-haul shipping, whose customers are also facing higher petrol costs, also struggled. Best Buy fell 4.4% and Williams-Sonoma dropped 4%.

The moves followed steeper losses in European and Asian markets, where economies are more exposed to imported oil and gas. South Korea’s Kospi sank 6%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 5.2% and Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled 1%.

Potential stagflation scenario

Since the war with Iran began, the central worry for financial markets has been how high oil prices will go and how long they will stay there.

If prices stay very high for very long, household budgets already stretched by high inflation could break under the pressure.

Meanwhile, companies would see their own bills jump for key items such as fuel and stock items, as well as for powering their data centres.

It all raises the possibility of a worst-case scenario for the global economy: stagflation, or a period when economic growth stagnates and inflation remains persistently high.

Late on Sunday, President Donald Trump countered this narrative by assuring that high oil prices at the moment are both worth the cost and only temporary.

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and world, safety and peace,” he said in a post on Truth Social.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury held at 4.15%, where it ended Friday.

Worries about high inflation and oil prices are applying upward pressure on Treasury yields, while risks of a slowing economy are pulling in the opposite direction.

Concerns about stagflation deepened on Friday following a surprisingly weak US jobs report showing that employers cut more jobs last month than they added.

European stock markets were all in negative territory on Monday morning after weak sentiment in Asian markets, where Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index plunged more than 5% and Taiwan’s benchmark fell 4.4%.

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Other Asian markets also tumbled after oil prices soared to nearly $120 a barrel, casting a shadow over economies heavily dependent on imported crude and gas from the region.

In Europe, London’s FTSE 100 was down 1.6%, while Frankfurt’s DAX, Paris’s CAC 40 and Milan’s FTSE MIB were all down more than 2.4%, as of 09:30 CET. Madrid’s IBEX 35 fell nearly 2.7%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 lost about 2%.

While rising oil and gas prices are threatening Europe’s economic outlook this year, trading sentiment was further impacted on Monday by worse-than-expected data from Germany.

German industrial production and factory orders both fell at the start of the year. Output decreased by 0.5% in January following a revised 1% decline the previous month, the statistics office said on Monday.

Meanwhile, investor expectations are rising that the European Central Bank could raise benchmark interest rates this year, as soaring energy prices fuel fears that inflation may surge.

The panic in the stock market unfolded as oil prices became the main focus for investors.

Oil prices soaring

Oil prices rocketed higher as both sides in the Iran conflict struck new targets over the weekend, including civilian infrastructure. The war, now in its second week, involves regions critical to the production and transport of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.

Prices moderated after the Financial Times reported that some members of the Group of Seven (G7) were considering releasing strategic oil reserves to ease pressure on markets. The unconfirmed report cited unnamed sources familiar with the discussions.

Oil prices spiked near $120 per barrel before falling back on Monday as the conflict intensified, threatening production and shipping in the Middle East and rattling global financial markets.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged to $119.50 early in the day but later traded around $107.80.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, spiked to $119.48 per barrel but fell back to around $103 by the European market open.

Strikes on Iranian oil facilities risk increasing pressure on an already tight global energy market, analysts warned. Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said “Iran accounts for roughly 4% of global oil supply, and around 90% of its exports are directed to China.”

The world’s second-largest economy has vast reserves, but analysts say any prolonged damage to Iran’s export capacity could weigh on its economic recovery and eventually affect global markets.

James also warned that attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Gulf risk escalating tensions and unsettling markets that had initially expected the conflict to be resolved quickly.

After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to the conflict, the European gas market is also under pressure. Natural gas futures jumped more than 14% on Monday to above €61 per megawatt-hour, nearing their highest level in three years and extending last week’s 67% surge.

Several major producers in the region have cut back output, and Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility — the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant — was shut down last week.

Russia has also warned it could halt natural gas exports to Europe, adding to market anxiety.

At the same time, Europe’s gas reserves remain low, with EU storage levels below 30% and requiring refilling.

Early Monday, the US dollar, which retains its status as a safe-haven asset, gained against other major currencies. It was trading at 158.46 Japanese yen, up from 158.09 late Friday. The euro rose slightly to $1.1558 from $1.1556.

In other trading, gold prices were down more than 1% on Monday morning in Europe, trading around $5,100, while cryptocurrencies were mostly higher. One bitcoin traded at $67,774, up 0.7%.

IMF: ‘Think of the unthinkable and prepare for it’

As fears grow over how long the war could last — and with Asian markets, often seen as engines of global growth, under heavy pressure — International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that policymakers must prepare for the “unthinkable.”

“If the new conflict proves prolonged, it has clear and obvious potential to affect market sentiment, growth, and inflation, placing new demands on policymakers,” Georgieva said in a keynote speech at a symposium in Tokyo on Monday.

She reminded her audience that, as a rule of thumb, every 10% increase in oil prices — if sustained through most of the year — could raise global headline inflation by about 40 basis points and reduce global output by 0.1–0.2%.

“And if, as we all hope, the conflict ends soon, then be sure that, before long, some new shock will come. My advice to policymakers everywhere in this new global environment? Think of the unthinkable and prepare for it,” she added.

The United States-Israeli war on Iran could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the conflict, which is now in its eighth day, ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and elevated risks to shipping.

The outlook poses a global economic threat and a political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump leading into the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavourable to foreign entanglements.

Global oil prices have surged by more than 25 percent since the start of the war, driving up fuel prices for consumers worldwide.

The national average petrol price reached $3.41 per gallon ($0.9 a litre) on Saturday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), rising by $0.43 over the past week. Goldman Sachs warned oil prices could climb above $100 per barrel if shipping disruptions continue.

The US crude oil settled at just below $91 per barrel on Friday – its largest weekly gain on record in data dating back to 1983, indicating prices could continue to rise.

“The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows,” JP Morgan analysts said earlier this week, according to the Reuters news agency.

The conflict has already led to the suspension of about a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as Tehran targets ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its shores and Oman, and attacks energy infrastructure across the region.

A nearly complete shutdown of the strait means the region’s top oil producers – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait – have had to suspend shipments of as much as 140 million barrels of oil – equal to about 1.4 days of global demand – to global refiners.

More than 80 percent of global trade moves by sea, according to the World Bank, meaning disruptions in the waterway could increase freight costs and delay deliveries of goods.

Storages in the Gulf filling

As a result, oil and gas storage at facilities in the Gulf is rapidly filling, forcing oilfields in Iraq and Kuwait to cut oil production, with the UAE likely to cut next, analysts, traders and sources told Reuters.

“At some point soon, everyone will also shut in if vessels do not come,” a ⁠source with a state oil company in the region, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.

Oilfields forced to shut in across the Middle East as a result of the shipping disruptions could take a while to return to normal, said Amir Zaman, head of the Americas commercial team at Rystad Energy.

“The conflict could be ended, but it could take days or weeks or months, depending on the types of fields, age of the field, the type of shut-in that they’ve had to do before you can get production back up to what it once was,” he said.

Iranian forces, meanwhile, are targeting regional energy infrastructure, including refineries and terminals, forcing them to shut down too, with some of those operations badly damaged by attacks and in need of repairs.

Qatar declared force majeure on its huge volumes of gas exports on Wednesday after Iranian drone attacks, and it may take at least a month to return to normal production ‌levels, sources told Reuters. Qatar supplies 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Saudi Aramco’s mammoth Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal, meanwhile, has also closed due to attacks, with no details on damage.

Economists warn that the situation could create a combination of higher prices and slower growth.

European stock markets turned early gains into losses by early afternoon, following a rally in Asian markets, as investors searched for direction nearly a week after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran that sent global markets on a rollercoaster.

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By 2 p.m. CET, Germany’s DAX was down by 0.2%, similar to the CAC 40 in Paris and Britain’s FTSE 100.

Madrid’s IBEX stood out by gaining 0.3% as the European benchmark European Stoxx 600 was down by a few points.

Before noon, European trading followed strong gains in Asia, where South Korea’s Kospi jumped by more than 9%, recovering much of Wednesday’s 12.06% fall.

“A decent showing on Wall Street last night and a solid performance from Asia on Thursday helped to spur part of Europe into a higher gear,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, commenting on the morning trade.

Uncertainty about the war in the Middle East has continued to rattle financial markets, with investors closely watching movements in the oil price.

Crude prices continued to rise. US benchmark WTI was trading 3% higher at around $76.8 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent crude was up 2% after 2 pm CET.

“Brent crude continued to move higher, nudging above $83 per barrel and stoking fears that energy bills will go through the roof,” Coatsworth said.

“Oil is so important to the world economy and to see the price rise so quickly in just a week could leave investors feeling dazed and confused.”

He added that the situation in the Middle East was unfolding rapidly, making it difficult for investors to judge whether markets were facing a prolonged energy crisis or “just a short, sharp shock”.

Meanwhile, US futures slipped as Iran launched more missiles at Israel on the sixth day of the conflict.

The latest escalation included Iranian attacks on Israeli and American bases. Iran warned the United States would “bitterly regret” torpedoing an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean, while a religious leader called for “Trump’s blood”.

Israel said it had begun a “large-scale” attack on Tehran.

On Wednesday, US stocks rose as oil prices steadied, albeit temporarily.

Investor sentiment was also supported by a report showing growth in US businesses in the real estate, finance and other services sectors accelerated last month at the fastest pace since the summer of 2022.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, erasing much of its losses since the conflict with Iran began.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.3%.

Another report suggested US private-sector employers increased hiring last month, a potentially positive signal ahead of a broader US government labour market report due on Friday.

Investors remain concerned about how long the conflict could last, how much inflation may rise due to higher oil prices, and what impact that could have on corporate profits.

Gains in major technology companies also lifted Wall Street.

Amazon rose 3.9%, while Nvidia added 1.7%. As two of the largest companies in the US market by value, their movements have a significant impact on the S&P 500.

Wednesday’s strong economic data was also welcome news for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to keep the labour market strong while bringing inflation under control.

However, the jump in oil prices could complicate that task by pushing inflation higher.

In other dealings on Thursday, gold trade was slightly down by early afternoon, losing 0.3% and traded at $5,120 an ounce.

The US dollar traded at 157.64 Japanese yen, while the euro slipped to $1.1623 from $1.1636.

Analysts said the dollar has strengthened partly because the US is seen as facing less direct risk from the conflict than other countries.

When President Trump announced the initial wave of US and Israeli strikes on Iran at 8:30 a.m. CET on Saturday 28 February, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury, all traditional financial markets were closed.

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Most markets operate Monday to Friday only, meaning weekend developments, however significant, cannot be priced in until trading resumes on Monday morning, creating a bottleneck of reaction at the open.

US equities, futures, major foreign-exchange platforms, commodity markets, Asian and European bourses were all closed on Saturday.

Middle Eastern exchanges, such as those in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, opened on the second day of the conflict, as they trade Sunday to Thursday, but these attract fewer Western participants and, consequently, lack liquidity.

In the past, investors facing such a major geopolitical shock on a Saturday would have been forced to wait until US futures reopened Sunday evening to start pricing in an expectedly chaotic Monday.

Crypto never sleeps

This time, however, they had a genuine alternative — crypto-based platforms that trade 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and 365 days a year, are globally accessible and settle transactions almost instantly.

The standout choice was Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetuals exchange that offers contracts not only on cryptocurrencies but also on real-world assets including crude oil.

According to on-chain data, trading volume on the platform spiked sharply, reaching peaks near $200mn (€172mn) in a single 24-hour period on Saturday.

The oil-linked perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid, such as OIL/USDH and USOIL/USDH, rose more than 5% almost immediately after the US-Israeli strikes were announced, providing one of the first real-time price signals before traditional markets reopened.

Hyperliquid contracts were not the only instruments drawing attention.

Tether’s XAUT, a token fully backed by physical gold held in vaults, saw its 24-hour trading volume exceed $300mn (€258mn) — a remarkable figure for a weekend.

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket also posted massive volumes, while Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto tokens were sold off as proxy assets for broader negative risk sentiment.

For the first time in many observers’ memories, crypto markets were effectively “the market” during the weekend.

In a memo published on Tuesday, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, described it as “the weekend that changed finance”.

Critics will point out that crypto markets remain smaller and more volatile than their traditional counterparts, and that regulatory and operational risks persist.

However, the events of the past weekend showed that on-chain finance is moving from the fringes to the core of global capital markets far faster than most forecasts anticipated even six months ago.

Traditional exchanges accelerate push for 24/7 trading

The success of crypto platforms during the Iran conflict adds to the pressure already felt by legacy financial institutions to follow suit and provide perpetually open markets.

The New York Stock Exchange, owned by Intercontinental Exchange, is actively developing a blockchain-based alternative trading system for tokenised equities and exchange-traded funds that would enable genuine 24/7 trading with instant settlement.

Announced in early 2026 and still subject to regulatory approval, the platform would combine NYSE’s existing matching engine with private blockchain networks for post-trade processing.

Trades could be funded and settled in real time using stablecoins, bypassing the T+1 settlement cycle, which dictates the transfer of securities and the corresponding payment must be completed by the next business day and still governs equity markets.

The tokenised venue has a potential launch window as early as the second quarter of 2026, with broader 22 to 23-hour weekday trading on NYSE targeted for later in the year or early 2027, subject to coordination with the SEC, DTCC and market-data providers.

Nasdaq has filed similar proposals to extend US equities trading to 23 hours a day, five days a week, with an anticipated rollout in the second half of 2026.

These moves represent a direct response to the competitive pressure exerted by always-on crypto venues and the growing frequency of market-moving events that occur outside traditional hours.

The Iran weekend served as a vivid case study.

With hedge funds and proprietary traders already active on Hyperliquid and other decentralised platforms, established exchanges recognise that failing to offer comparable access risks losing order flow permanently.

Tokenisation provides the technological bridge, allowing continuous trading while preserving existing regulatory safeguards around custody, dividends and shareholder rights.

Crypto market bill stalls despite Trump backing

While the crypto infrastructure demonstrated its resilience over the weekend, progress on the legislative front remains frustratingly slow.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, known as the CLARITY Act, passed in the US Congress last year with strong bipartisan support but has since become bogged down in the Senate.

The primary sticking point is friction between the banking and crypto sectors over the treatment of stablecoin yields under the separate GENIUS Act, which established the first federal framework for stablecoin issuers.

Banks argue that yield-bearing stablecoins could drain deposits, and they have lobbied to close perceived loopholes.

Crypto proponents counter that such rewards are essential for customer retention and innovation.

On Tuesday, President Trump weighed in directly via Truth Social.

“The Genius Act is being threatened and undermined by the banks, and that is unacceptable — we are not going to allow it. The U.S. needs to get market structure done, asap.”

Moreover, President Trump further sided with the crypto sector by stating that “The banks are hitting record profits, and we are not going to allow them to undermine our powerful crypto agenda that will end up going to China, and other countries, if we don’t get the Clarity Act taken care of.”

Despite the presidential intervention and earlier White House meetings between the two industries, no resolution has been reached.

The Senate Banking and Agriculture committees continue to advance differing drafts, and a full vote remains elusive.

With the bill effectively stalled, market participants are left without the regulatory certainty many had hoped would arrive before the end of the first quarter.

The irony is not lost on observers. While crypto markets proved their worth during a real-world crisis, the very legislation designed to integrate them safely into the traditional system remains hostage to lobbying battles.

Until a resolution is achieved, the speed of innovation will continue to outstrip the pace of rulemaking — a dynamic the Iran weekend has only made more apparent.