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September has long carried an unfavourable reputation for global equity markets, and European stocks are no exception.
Historical data reveals that the month consistently delivers weak performances for major continental indices, echoing the negative seasonal pattern seen on Wall Street.
Over the past 30 years, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, Europe’s leading blue-chip benchmark, has posted an average September loss of 1.56%, narrowly trailing August’s 1.59% decline, which ranks as the worst month of the year. In 15 of those 30 years, the index closed the month in the red, underscoring a near-coin toss probability of a negative outcome.
The negative seasonality remains intact even when narrowing the lens to the past decade. Since 2014, the Euro Stoxx 50 has recorded an average 1% drop in September, with six out of ten instances ending in losses.
And it’s not just the Euro Stoxx 50 feeling the September slump. The broader Euro Stoxx 600, which captures a wider slice of the market, has also stumbled during this month, with an average loss of 0.96% since its launch in 2002.
That mirrors the S&P 500’s performance, which has lost about 1% on average during the same month over recent decades, the worst return of any month for US equities.
The September seasonal weakness in equity markets may be linked to a confluence of factors: post-summer rebalancing by institutional investors, renewed macroeconomic uncertainty heading into the year-end, and traditionally lower trading volumes following the holiday period.
National indices not spared
Across Europe’s major country indices, the September effect is equally pronounced.
Germany’s DAX index has delivered an average return of -1.62% in September, second only to August in terms of weakness, with a winning rate of just 47%.
France’s CAC 40 fares similarly, averaging a 1.49% decline in September, its poorest month of the year, although it manages a slightly better 53% winning rate.
Italy’s FTSE MIB index, while averaging a flat 0% return in September over the long term, is currently on a streak of four consecutive negative Septembers.
10 European stocks suffer steepest September setbacks
At the individual stock level, several of Europe’s heavyweight names have demonstrated a persistent pattern of September underperformance, with average losses outpacing their monthly norms and, in many cases, marking September as the worst-performing month of the year.
Infineon (Germany): The semiconductor group has an average September loss of 6.13%, its weakest month historically. The stock has closed lower in four consecutive Septembers, with its worst drop of 52.34% occurring in 2001.
Vivendi (France): With a dismal 33% winning rate in September and an average loss of 4.07%, the French media firm experienced a record monthly drop of 66% in 2021.
Airbus (Netherlands/France): The aerospace giant has fallen in six straight Septembers, averaging a 4.01% decline. Its worst September came in 2001, with shares plunging 37.04%.
LVMH (France): Europe’s largest luxury group averages a 3.42% September drop, despite a marginally better 53% win rate. The worst September loss came in 2001, at -34.71%.
Société Générale (France): The French bank posts an average September return of -3.11%, with a 47% win rate. Its most severe drop was -40.38% in 1998.
Schneider Electric (France): The electrical equipment firm has an average September return of -2.16%, with its steepest fall of 34.43% occurring in 2001.
E.ON (Germany): The utility company averages a 2.18% September loss with a 43% winning rate. Its worst drop came in 2015, at -24.03%.
Deutsche Post AG (Germany): The logistics and courier group averages a 1.97% loss in September. It saw its sharpest monthly decline of -22.41% in 2002.
Kering (France): Another luxury player, Kering averages a 1.76% drop in September with a 43% win rate. The worst September came in 2002 (-23.35%), and the stock is currently on a four-year losing streak.
SAP (Germany): Europe’s largest software company averages a 1.6% September decline. A six-year streak of negative Septembers ended in 2024, though the stock once dropped 40.98% in the month back in 2002.
Gold hits fresh record, European stock markets rise after Fed comments
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European stocks rose on Wednesday morning after a string of strong corporate results a day earlier, while equities were also boosted by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In Philadelphia on Tuesday, Powell suggested that another interest rate cut could come later this month in the US.
In Europe, shares in Netherlands-headquartered ASML, which makes equipment used in the production of AI chips, jumped after the company posted promising results on Wednesday.
The shares rose more than 4%, after Europe’s largest company by market value reported third-quarter earnings fuelled by the AI boom. ASML’s stocks have rallied by almost 50% since August.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, French multinational luxury group LVMH said its organic growth re-entered positive territory in the third quarter. The luxury giant’s shares jumped by more than 14% by 13.00 CEST.
The mood in France also shifted on news that the government had significantly improved its chances of surviving a looming no-confidence vote on Thursday.
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu won the much-needed support of the Socialist Party in France’s National Assembly, in exchange for suspending a pension law that raises the retirement age. The CAC 40 in Paris jumped over 2% by 13.00 CEST.
The main European benchmark stock exchanges were also in the green, except for London’s FTSE 100, which lost 0.43%. Meanwhile, the DAX in Frankfurt gained less than 0.1%. Milan’s FTSE MIB was up by 0.36%, Madrid’s Ibex 35 gained 0.71% and the STOXX 600 saw a 0.6% gain.
Gold continued its rally, hitting a high of $4,217 per ounce. Gold has soared over 60% in 2025 as investors seek a safe haven during a period of uncertainty, notably driven by US tariffs and trade tensions.
Global markets are on the rise after the Fed Chair’s words
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled on Tuesday that the Fed is slightly more worried about the job market, raising expectations that the central bank will come through with another rate cut.
“Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks,” he said at a meeting of the National Association of Business Economics in Philadelphia.
Traders took his words to heart, particularly as the US government shutdown has prevented the release of fresh economic data.
“[Investors were] reading Powell like a haiku — every pause, every syllable weighed for hidden meaning,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.
“The message, once decoded, was clear enough: two rate cuts aren’t just a possibility, they’re the main course,” Innes said.
The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September amid worries that unemployment could worsen.
“Markets have been lifted by the rekindling of rate cut expectations in the US after comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell, which highlighted sluggish hiring were taken as an indication that not one, but two further cuts were very much on the table for 2025,” said Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis.
“Buoyed by continued deal-making in the frothy AI sector, investors seem prepared to overlook the growing number of warnings about the potential for a market correction at the moment, but this earnings season will be crucial if that optimism is to continue.”
S&P 500 futures rose 0.64% during the early afternoon in Europe, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.41%. Nasdaq futures were up by 0.79%.
On Tuesday, US markets closed a mixed trading day, with the S&P 500 giving up 0.16% and the Dow climbing 0.44%. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.76%.
Markets remain volatile as the US and China exchange threats of new trade sanctions and tariffs.
Technology stocks are hypersensitive to trade issues since big chipmakers and other companies rely on China for raw materials and manufacturing. China’s large consumer base is also important for its sales growth.
In other dealings early Wednesday, US benchmark crude oil was circling around $58.65 per barrel (€50.43) and Brent crude, the international standard, was traded around $62.24 (€53.52) per barrel.
The US dollar slipped 0.25% against the Japanese yen, while the euro rose 0.19% against the dollar. The British Pound gained 0.35% against the greenback.
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Why September tends to spook European equity markets
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September has long carried an unfavourable reputation for global equity markets, and European stocks are no exception.
Historical data reveals that the month consistently delivers weak performances for major continental indices, echoing the negative seasonal pattern seen on Wall Street.
Over the past 30 years, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, Europe’s leading blue-chip benchmark, has posted an average September loss of 1.56%, narrowly trailing August’s 1.59% decline, which ranks as the worst month of the year. In 15 of those 30 years, the index closed the month in the red, underscoring a near-coin toss probability of a negative outcome.
The negative seasonality remains intact even when narrowing the lens to the past decade. Since 2014, the Euro Stoxx 50 has recorded an average 1% drop in September, with six out of ten instances ending in losses.
And it’s not just the Euro Stoxx 50 feeling the September slump. The broader Euro Stoxx 600, which captures a wider slice of the market, has also stumbled during this month, with an average loss of 0.96% since its launch in 2002.
That mirrors the S&P 500’s performance, which has lost about 1% on average during the same month over recent decades, the worst return of any month for US equities.
The September seasonal weakness in equity markets may be linked to a confluence of factors: post-summer rebalancing by institutional investors, renewed macroeconomic uncertainty heading into the year-end, and traditionally lower trading volumes following the holiday period.
National indices not spared
Across Europe’s major country indices, the September effect is equally pronounced.
Germany’s DAX index has delivered an average return of -1.62% in September, second only to August in terms of weakness, with a winning rate of just 47%.
France’s CAC 40 fares similarly, averaging a 1.49% decline in September, its poorest month of the year, although it manages a slightly better 53% winning rate.
Italy’s FTSE MIB index, while averaging a flat 0% return in September over the long term, is currently on a streak of four consecutive negative Septembers.
10 European stocks suffer steepest September setbacks
At the individual stock level, several of Europe’s heavyweight names have demonstrated a persistent pattern of September underperformance, with average losses outpacing their monthly norms and, in many cases, marking September as the worst-performing month of the year.
Infineon (Germany): The semiconductor group has an average September loss of 6.13%, its weakest month historically. The stock has closed lower in four consecutive Septembers, with its worst drop of 52.34% occurring in 2001.
Vivendi (France): With a dismal 33% winning rate in September and an average loss of 4.07%, the French media firm experienced a record monthly drop of 66% in 2021.
Airbus (Netherlands/France): The aerospace giant has fallen in six straight Septembers, averaging a 4.01% decline. Its worst September came in 2001, with shares plunging 37.04%.
LVMH (France): Europe’s largest luxury group averages a 3.42% September drop, despite a marginally better 53% win rate. The worst September loss came in 2001, at -34.71%.
Société Générale (France): The French bank posts an average September return of -3.11%, with a 47% win rate. Its most severe drop was -40.38% in 1998.
Schneider Electric (France): The electrical equipment firm has an average September return of -2.16%, with its steepest fall of 34.43% occurring in 2001.
E.ON (Germany): The utility company averages a 2.18% September loss with a 43% winning rate. Its worst drop came in 2015, at -24.03%.
Deutsche Post AG (Germany): The logistics and courier group averages a 1.97% loss in September. It saw its sharpest monthly decline of -22.41% in 2002.
Kering (France): Another luxury player, Kering averages a 1.76% drop in September with a 43% win rate. The worst September came in 2002 (-23.35%), and the stock is currently on a four-year losing streak.
SAP (Germany): Europe’s largest software company averages a 1.6% September decline. A six-year streak of negative Septembers ended in 2024, though the stock once dropped 40.98% in the month back in 2002.
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