Kamikaze

The cost to connect each of the U.S. military’s Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) one-way attack drones to space-based networks has risen from $5,000 to $25,000 a month, according to a new report. This is said to be the result of a switch from using the commercial Starlink network to its more secure government-focused cousin Starshield, which SpaceX demanded after extensive use of LUCAS drones in the latest conflict with Iran. The Pentagon has pushed back on the story, but it still highlights how critical SpaceX’s networks and other space services have become across the U.S. government, which TWZ has previously explored in detail.

Reuters first reported on the price increase to connect the datalinks on LUCAS drones to SpaceX’s space-based networks earlier today. The story cites anonymous sources, as well as Pentagon documents the outlet says it reviewed. This follows the recent announcement that the Pentagon is working to make LUCAS more autonomous with new artificial intelligence (AI) driven swarming capabilities, which could impact future connectivity demands.

Produced by SpektreWorks, LUCAS was developed in close cooperation with the U.S. military. It is a reverse-engineered clone of the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 and has a unit cost of around $35,000. The American drone already comes in multiple variations, and there is a related target drone design for use in training and test and evaluation activities. Versions fitted with miniature beyond-line-of-sight satellite datalinks, allowing for dynamic control and for their progress to be otherwise monitored after launch, have been a fixture in official pictures of LUCAS drones in the Middle East.

In the video in the social media post below, the satellite communications terminal can be seen hanging from a cord on a LUCAS drone said to have been recovered largely intact in Iraq.

The U.S. military announced it had begun fielding LUCAS drones operationally last December with a special operations-led task force in the Middle East. LUCAS’s official combat debut came in the opening wave of strikes on Iran on February 28. U.S. Navy Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, subsequently described the one-way attackers as an “indispensable” component of that operation, dubbed Epic Fury.

What we know about SpaceX’s reported upcharge for LUCAS

“Within weeks of the United States launching its bombing campaign, SpaceX executives met Pentagon officials and argued ​the military had been paying about $5,000 for connection per terminal while effectively using a higher tier of service worth closer to $25,000,” according to Reuters. “SpaceX argued the ⁠LUCAS drones were operating under conditions that aligned more closely with its aviation tier subscription rather than a lower priced land or mobility service. Pentagon officials argued that the $25,000 price tag – a monthly fee – was designed for aircraft, not kamikaze drones that used Starlink connection for a matter of minutes ​or hours.”

“The Pentagon, which was ramping up strikes on Iran, ultimately agreed to pay SpaceX’s proposed price increase,” Reuters‘ report added.

The story also said this reflected broader “tensions” between the Pentagon and SpaceX that have been growing recently over Starlink fees.

“The Fake News media has the story wrong, again,” top Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell subsequently wrote in a post on X. “The claims in this article are simply not based in reality and do not reflect the close, effective collaboration between our teams.”

When reached for comment by TWZ earlier today before Parnell’s post, the Pentagon did not directly address Reuters‘ report.

“The Department of War is committed to fostering a competitive environment for commercial satellite communications and is conducting comprehensive market research to continuously monitor commercial offerings that align with government requirements,” a Pentagon official told us. “We are actively engaging with industry to identify innovative solutions and new entrants, ensuring acquisitions are inclusive of a diverse range of capable vendors.”

“The Commercial Satellite Communications Office is working on additional options with other proliferated low earth orbit partners as part of its strategy to leverage the unprecedented capabilities provided by the commercial SATCOM industry,” that same official added. “The U.S. Space Force is operating in accordance with the terms and conditions of its contracts.”

TWZ has also reached out to SpaceX for more information.

“It is a violation of commercial Starlink terms of service to use the terminal for weapon systems. This applies to all users and is shut down when discovered,” Elon Musk, who is the founder and CEO of SpaceX among his other endeavors, had written on X on March 1 in response to a post about LUCAS making use of Starlink. “There is a separate network called Starshield, which is operated by the US government. This is not under SpaceX control.”

SpaceX’s networks and the LUCAS cost equation

Though described as a “monthly fee,” Reuters‘ report indicates that the U.S. military pays the $25,000 only once to employ a LUCAS drone. As the piece points out, the Pentagon reportedly argued that it should get to pay the lower $5,000 rate because it was only using the network to support LUCAS in timeframes measured in “minutes ​or hours.” This is also in line with Reuters describing the added cost as effectively approaching doubling the LUCAS drone’s $35,000 unit price.

The entire point of these one-way-attack drones is to offer a lower-cost complement to traditional exquisite long-range strike munitions. The Tomahawk cruise missile, the unit cost of a current-generation version of which is generally said to be in the $2 to $2.5 million range, is often used as a point of comparison, although they are far from equal in many ways. The underlying argument for LUCAS also relies on the drone being relatively cheap and easy to produce, as well as employ in large volumes. TWZ laid all of this out in a detailed case for the Pentagon acquiring exactly these kinds of drones in mass, which we published just three months before LUCAS was confirmed to be in operational service.

A combined price tag of some $60,000 (the unit cost plus one month’s fee to connect to Starshield, as reported by Reuters) would still be far less expensive than the cost of a single Tomahawk. Using Starlink/Starshield terminals to begin with, beyond their connectivity advantages, offers the benefit of miniaturized high-bandwidth hardware that is being produced at a commercial scale.

Plans to make LUCAS more autonomous through the addition of new swarming capabilities could affect future network connectivity requirements for the drones. This will be enabled by the integration of Shield AI’s Hivemind autonomy software, as you can read more about here.

Shield AI flies Hivemind AI Pilot on 6th Aircraft

As TWZ recently wrote:

“For the time being, the U.S. military demands a human operator is ‘in or on the loop’ for kinetic or otherwise potentially deadly actions, as opposed to letting autonomous weapons choose what targets to attack on their own without any extra authorization. While less controversial morally, this can also be a tactical hindrance, slowing the swarm’s potential and adding complexity and vulnerabilities to its operations. The debate around this choice will only get more heated as adversaries bypass this elected restriction in order to get an upper hand in future combat scenarios.”

“As we pointed out in our initial reporting on LUCAS’s emergence, the fact that some of the LUCAS drones already include miniature SATCOM terminals is very noteworthy. After all, ‘human in the loop’ swarming would not be possible without this form of communications at the beyond line-of-sight ranges these drones fly. At the same time, an entire swarm can be controlled in this manner, even if just a handful are equipped with SATCOM terminals. While a swarm can be mesh networked within line-of-sight, it has to relay all the important information back to an operator. By using some of the drones as SATCOM relay nodes, the entire swarm can be controlled remotely from most places on the planet.”

“Regardless, the Hivemind AI pilot will allow appropriately equipped LUCAS drones to perceive their environment, make decisions, and act autonomously without continuous human input. Unlike conventional autopilots tied to fixed flight paths, Hivemind is designed to dynamically adjust mission plans, react to unforeseen conditions, avoid obstacles, and carry out complex tasks with minimal operator oversight.”

An increase in fees to connect individual SATCOM terminals to SpaceX’s networks, as well as cost savings on hardware, might further push the Pentagon toward a hub-and-spoke mesh-like networking arrangement like the one described above. LUCAS drones could also be employed in other contexts where satellite connectivity throughout the course of a mission might not be required, including if used essentially as fire-and-forget missiles aimed at fixed target coordinates. A SATCOM terminal would not be necessary at all for this kind of mission set, although it would be beneficial.

There is also a question about the total bandwidth that might be required to support swarms of LUCAS drones. From Reuters‘ reporting today, the increased load on its networks was a central factor in SpaceX’s demands for higher fees after strikes on Iran began. That being said, as already mentioned, Starlink/Starshield terminals are already designed with relatively high bandwidth use in mind.

These same considerations will apply to current and future programs that rely heavily on SpaceX’s satellite communications networks.

Dependence on SpaceX and U.S. national security

Specific cost figures aside, the LUCAS drone’s reliance on Starlink/Starshield underscores SpaceX’s dominance in the satellite communications market globally. It also highlights how essential the company’s space-based networks have already become for the U.S. military. TWZ explored this reality in detail amid open feuding between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk last year. The relationship between Trump and Musk has since rebounded, with the latter accompanying the President on his recent state visit to China.

Reuters reported today that there are some 10,000 satellites in SpaceX’s constellation supporting Starlink and Starshield, and that this represents more than 60 percent of all satellites currently in orbit. The company’s space-based networks, far and away, dominate the commercial satellite communications space globally. Offerings from competitors like OneWeb and Amazon Leo are more limited in scale and scope.

Watch SpaceX deploy Starlink satellites into space

This is reflected in the U.S. government’s ever-growing use of Starlink/Starshield on aircraft, ships, and in settings on land. This includes integration on some very high-value assets, including the U.S. Marine Corps’ VH-92 Patriot presidential helicopters and U.S. Navy aircraft carriers. There has also been a steadily growing push to use these networks to support tactical operations, as now highlighted by the link to LUCAS. The U.S. military had first demonstrated the ability to use Starlink to transmit targeting data years ago.

The U.S. government’s increasing use of Starlink/Starshield has already prompted operational security questions, even just in the context of supporting day-to-day peacetime operations, as you can read more about here. Starshield is designed to be more secure to help address these concerns for government customers.

At the same time, heavy use of Starlink on both sides of the conflict in Ukraine, including as a means of guiding one-way attackers in the air and at sea, has further underscored potential risks associated with the use of the networks in tactical scenarios. SpaceX and CEO Musk have faced particularly significant criticism in the past over limiting some Ukrainian use of the network. Actions SpaceX took earlier this year to block unregistered Starlink terminals also had major consequences for Russian forces, which were sent scrambling to find alternatives to fill the massive resulting communications gaps.

What SpaceX might have been prepared to do if the Pentagon did not agree to pay increased fees to support LUCAS is unknown. We also do not know what kind of protections are currently baked into U.S. contracts with SpaceX to prevent government users from being suddenly disconnected without warning. Regardless, as noted earlier, the Pentagon could deploy LUCAS swarms with just a handful of drones equipped with terminals to relay the critical info needed to control the rest of the formation, and LUCAS can still be used as a fire-and-forget weapon without any beyond line-of-sight connectivity, although this would greatly curtail its flexibility and, in some cases, its efficacy.

As the Pentagon official noted to TWZ today, there is a push to explore commercial alternatives to Starlink/Starshield and promote further competition in this space. At the same time, part of the attractiveness of Starlink/Starshield for the U.S. government has been the relatively low costs and other benefits associated with leveraging such well-established networks, as well as the knowledge base that comes along with that pedigree. Just today, the U.S. Space Force announced it had finalized a new Other Transaction Authority (OTA) agreement with SpaceX, valued at $2.29 billion, for work on the Space Data Network (SDN) Backbone program. The SDN is tied to work on new space-based sensing and targeting capabilities, particularly for missile defense, which could now feed into the Golden Dome initiative.

Beyond satellite communications, SpaceX is reportedly also now a critical player in U.S. military efforts to increasingly move air and ground moving target indicator (AMTI/GMTI) tasks into orbit.

On top of all this, SpaceX is also by far the top provider of space launch services globally, as well as other space-related services, including for the U.S. government. The core elements of Golden Dome, including the sustainment of planned batteries of space-based interceptors, require reliable, routine access to space at a frequency that only SpaceX can provide within budget constraints.

SpaceX looks set to remain a dominant force in this market space worldwide for the foreseeable future, and it continues to expand its presence, driven heavily by commercial demand. The company’s government contracts, though substantial, only account for around a fifth of its annual revenue, according to Reuters.

Despite the Pentagon’s response to the particulars of Reuters’ story today, being so heavily reliant on one provider for critical technologies still raises important questions not just for LUCAS, but for other efforts across the U.S. military that rely on robust and secure satellite communications connectivity.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The U.S. military’s Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System, or LUCAS, the recently combat-proven long-range one-way attack drone designed for massed operations, will be equipped with Hivemind autonomy software from Shield AI. The company was selected for the integration effort by the Office of the Under Secretary of War for Research and Engineering (OUSW R&E) as part of an effort to bring AI-enabled swarming and autonomous teaming to LUCAS. The aim of incorporating swarming capabilities onto LUCAS, which is built by SpektreWorks, is something that officials told us about soon after the program broke cover.

The LUCAS program, developed by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of War for Prototyping and Experimentation under OUSW R&E, is intended to field ‘affordable mass’ by producing large numbers of relatively low-cost drones that can be deployed in coordinated waves to saturate enemy defenses and expand strike capabilities at scale. Each LUCAS drone costs around $35,000, which is a fraction of the price of available missiles with similar range.

Based on the Iranian Shahed-136, LUCAS was used in combat for the first time when a large number of them were fired against Iranian targets in the opening salvos of Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. part of the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran that began on February 28 of this year.

“LUCAS, indispensable,” U.S. Central Command boss Adm. Brad Cooper told TWZ when asked how effective the drones had been and how much they helped preserve magazine depth, given their comparatively low cost and faster and easier production.

Meanwhile, the original Shahed-136, as well as Russian Geran-series developments of it, have rapidly become a signature weapon of the war in Ukraine, acting as Moscow’s primary standoff strike munition. For years now, Shaheds have led Russia’s campaign of bombardment against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities. While the Shahed has a range in excess of 1,000 miles, LUCAS, in its current configuration, is a bit smaller, with a range of around half that distance. A version of the current airframe used for the LUCAS program also serves in a target surrogate role for training and testing.

Under the new effort, Hivemind will act as an AI “pilot” for LUCAS, allowing groups of drones to coordinate movements, maneuver collaboratively, and adapt to changing battlefield conditions in real time. The effort will culminate in an operational demonstration this fall in which a single operator will direct a swarm of LUCAS drones, but initial flight tests with the software installed will take place before then, Shield AI told TWZ.

Speaking to TWZ at the annual SOF Week conference yesterday, Shield AI’s Brandon Tseng explained that much of the work on inserting the Hivemind AI pilot into LUCAS has already been proven by the company’s experiences working with Ukraine.

“LUCAS is a reflection of about two years’ worth of work with OUSW R&E, and a reflection of a lot of the work that we’re doing in Ukraine with one-way attack drones,” Tseng explained. “For the past several months, we’ve been shipping hundreds of AI pilots for one-way attack drones into Ukraine. Those drones have increased the probability of a kill. They have reduced [the] kill chain timeline, they have reduced the cost per effect, instead of, one out of every 10 of these one-way attack drones hitting their target, now they’re 10 out of 10 in terms of what we’re seeing, and it’s really about taking a lot of that development that we’ve done over in Ukraine and bringing it to a program like LUCAS to again increase probability of kill, reduce cost per effect, and increase probabilities of success.”

In the Ukrainian context, Tseng confirmed that its AI agents are employed across a range of uncrewed platforms. At one end of the scale, these include one-way attack drones with a range of around 62 miles and an overall cost of $8,000, out of which the AI pilot costs around $1,000. At the other end of the scale are much larger and more expensive drones and missiles, including cruise missiles from the Switzerland-based Destinus company.

Returning to the U.S. military, the current effort began with Shield AI working on collaborative autonomy with OUSW R&E, something that began before the second Trump administration. That work was carried forward until the company was one of several down-selected to provide AI pilots for LUCAS.

The effort could represent a significant step toward fielding collaborative autonomy, a long-term goal of massed drone operations, with teams of autonomous systems operating together in dynamic and highly challenging combat environments. These could include ones where GPS is denied and communications are degraded, due to heavy employment of electronic warfare by the enemy.

“LUCAS is about delivering affordable mass, but mass without coordination is limited in value,” Tseng, who is the president and co-founder of Shield AI, said in a media release. “Hivemind is the AI pilot that makes that mass intelligent. It’s the autonomy layer that enables teams of drones to sense, decide, and act at scale. We’re proud to partner with OUSW R&E to put this capability in the hands of the warfighter at the speed of relevance.”

Hivemind is intended to streamline the operation of networked uncrewed systems by allowing a single operator to monitor and direct, as needed, multiple platforms simultaneously during complex, highly-coordinated missions. Using Hivemind, human operators retain authority over strike decisions, while the autonomy software handles navigation, coordination, and general mission execution. The operator can override and redirect the swarm’s operations and redefine its objectives at any time. Automating the swarm’s operations as much as a possible accelerates the timeline from target detection to engagement across a kill chain. The swarm should also be able to collectively act faster than an enemy can react, overwhelming and potentially breaking its decision cycle.

“It’s our policy that the moral decision behind the use of lethal force is always made by a human, and so ‘human in the loop’ is certainly part of the game for that decision-making process,” Tseng highlighted. “Once you make that decision, in the same way, once you decide to launch a cruise missile, then the AI is actually helping ensure that that decision gets fulfilled.”

For the time being, the U.S. military demands a human operator is ‘in or on the loop’ for kinetic or otherwise potentially deadly actions, as opposed to letting autonomous weapons choose what targets to attack on their own without any extra authorization. While less controversial morally, this can also be a tactical hindrance, slowing the swarm’s potential and adding complexity and vulnerabilities to its operations. The debate around this choice will only get more heated as adversaries bypass this elected restriction in order to get an upper hand in future combat scenarios.

As we pointed out in our initial reporting on LUCAS’s emergence, the fact that some of the LUCAS drones already include miniature SATCOM terminals is very noteworthy. After all, ‘human in the loop’ swarming would not be possible without this form of communications at the beyond line-of-sight ranges these drones fly. At the same time, an entire swarm can be controlled in this manner, even if just a handful are equipped with SATCOM terminals. While a swarm can be mesh networked within line-of-sight, it has to relay all the important information back to an operator. By using some of the drones as SATCOM relay nodes, the entire swarm can be controlled remotely from most places on the planet.

Regardless, the Hivemind AI pilot will allow appropriately equipped LUCAS drones to perceive their environment, make decisions, and act autonomously without continuous human input. Unlike conventional autopilots tied to fixed flight paths, Hivemind is designed to dynamically adjust mission plans, react to unforeseen conditions, avoid obstacles, and carry out complex tasks with minimal operator oversight.

In terms of how an AI pilot can assist LUCAS drones, including providing autonomous mission execution and swarming in GPS-denied, communications-denied environments, Tseng likened the technology to that which is behind self-driving cars.

“We’re using a lot of the same technical approaches that Tesla or Waymo are using; we use sensors on board these drones and weapon systems to perceive our environment. We got a GPU [graphics processing unit, a specialized electronic circuit designed for digital image processing] that thinks about what to do and is programmed to think about the different missions that it’s executing in said environment, and then we take action, maneuvering the drone or the weapon system in the environment.”

Already, Hivemind has been inserted in a variety of other platforms, including aboard Anduril’s YFQ-44A under the U.S. Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, the U.S. Navy BQM-177 test aircraft, the Airbus UH-72B Lakota helicopter, and the Destinus Hornet platform. The company says it has integrated AI pilots for 28 different platforms to date.

Teaming Autonomous Jets: Hivemind + MQM-178 Firejets

Tseng said the company wants to start flight testing with Hivemind in July. “I hope they make it operational as quickly as possible,” he added.

The path to operational service should be made easier by previous experience from Ukraine, where it took only eight weeks to put an AI pilot into one of their one-way attack platforms.

However, the final decision on fielding AI-equipped LUCAS drones rests with the customer. “It’s up to the government, and I’m not going to disclose timelines on when the government thinks about fielding it,” Tseng said of the Hivemind-equipped LUCAS drone.

While LUCAS drones without AI pilots have already achieved impressive results in the recent conflict with Iran, according to the Pentagon, Shield AI is meanwhile confident that the capabilities of the platform will be significantly enhanced once they are flying with AI onboard. The results should include increasing the probability of kill, lowering the cost per effect, and increasing overall mission success.

“If you have cheap one-way attack drones, but it takes 10 or 20 of them to destroy a target, they’re no longer that cheap, right?” Tseng contended. “But if all of a sudden you have cheap one-way attack drones, and one out of one can kill it, and now you can kill 20 targets, that is a really low cost per effect, and that’s what the United States is after at the end of the day.”

Putting an AI pilot in the LUCAS drone is a big deal for the program. If it works as planned, it should help realize the long-held ambition of coordinated swarms of drones, not just drones being deployed en masse.

Using the software, multiple LUCAS drones will be able to share tasks and maneuver cooperatively, making saturation attacks even more effective. As well as the drones dynamically rerouting, avoiding air defenses, and otherwise adapting to changing battlefield conditions, an AI pilot makes it easier for missions to continue despite hostile jamming or loss of datalink connectivity. Indeed, using AI, drone swarms can maintain near-perfect combat efficiency even if it loses members. Drones can be configured with all different payloads, with the swarm’s makeup tailored to each mission, and the AI system can maximize their collective effectiveness at all times.

With flight testing of Hivemind-equipped LUCAS drones expected to start in only a couple of months, we should begin to get a better look at the transformation of these kamikaze drones from expendable individual weapons into groups of networked weapons that collectively equate to much more than the sum of their parts.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com