Jair Bolsonaro

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is running in October’s election for a fourth non-consecutive mandate as Brazil’s president.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain deadlocked in the latest polls, with the first round of Brazil’s election less than two weeks away.

Two new polls on Monday showed that the pair are statistically tied in simulated runoffs ahead of next month’s election. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.

Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as Brazil’s president, but faces a challenge from the political right in Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump.

The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible for office after Brazil’s top electoral court found he had abused his power while in office. He was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential runoff, versus 41 percent for Lula.

Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential runoff.

The latest polls mark a narrowing from an earlier Quaest poll on August 5, which put Lula ahead by a wider five-point margin, 44 percent to 39 percent.

US pressure looms over election

Lula launched his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, casting himself as a defender of Brazilian “sovereignty” as pressure from the US administration looms over the race.

The US imposed two fresh rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products in July, which Lula denounced as an attempt to influence the elections through economic pressure.

The Brazilian leader is currently in New York, where he is preparing to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Lula met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani for the first time on Monday. In a brief statement to reporters after the meeting, the Brazilian president said the two had talked about problems common to both Brazil and the United States, particularly the rising cost of living.

BRASILIA: Revelations that Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering rocked his right-wing campaign Friday, weeks before elections.

Bolsonaro, the son of former leader Jair Bolsonaro, is vying for the presidency against leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the October ballot.

A newly released court document revealed that police have been investigating Flavio Bolsonaro since July regarding possible crimes “in the context of financing the production” of a forthcoming film about his father.

Police conducted dozens of raids Thursday over the alleged embezzlement of public funds by the company that produced the flattering biopic.

“Dark Horse” — starring US actor Jim Caviezel as Jair Bolsonaro — has been under scrutiny as part of a widening corruption scandal that has loomed over the election.

“I have nothing to hide. The film is completely legal,” Flavio Bolsonaro said at a campaign event on Friday.

An investigation of this kind does not prevent someone from running for office in Brazil.

Voters in Latin America’s largest economy head to the polls on October 4, deeply polarized and with a weary sense of deja vu as Lula takes on Bolsonaro.

The 45-year-old senator Flavio Bolsonaro was thrust into the electoral race after his father was jailed for attempting a coup in 2022.

He has styled himself as a “more moderate” version of his firebrand father.

Neck and neck

The right-wing candidate has vowed to “rescue” Brazil from corruption, crime, high food prices and soaring public debt. His speeches are woven through with references to “God, country, family and freedom.”

He has also pledged a heavy hand on crime, which polls show is voters’ main concern.

While Lula has promised to prioritize the fight against organized crime, his challenger blames him for not taking violence seriously enough.

Bolsonaro’s campaign has been hit by disclosures that he approached notorious fraud-accused banker Daniel Vorcaro — head of the collapsed private bank Banco Master — for money, which Bolsonaro said was to finance “Dark Horse.”

According to court documents obtained by AFP, investigators believe Flavio Bolsonaro personally met with Vorcaro and discussed the film’s financing with him on several occasions.

The documents also point to the transfer of $12.3 million from a company indirectly linked to Vorcaro to another tied to an attorney for Eduardo Bolsonaro, Flavio’s younger brother.

A police source told AFP that the targets of Thursday’s raids included Karina Gama, head of the company that produced “Dark Horse,” and Mario Frias, a pro-Bolsonaro congressman listed as the film’s executive producer.

Both have been banned from leaving Brazil pending the investigation’s outcome. Frias has said he is innocent, denouncing the “smoke screen” probe.

Police officials said the money came from parliamentary funds available to lawmakers to finance special projects, usually in their electoral strongholds.

Vorcaro’s alleged interactions with Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes, whom he apparently asked for legal help days before his arrest, have meanwhile triggered a crisis in Brazil’s top court.

“The impact of corruption scandals is much greater for Lula’s campaign than for Flavio’s,” said political scientist Mayra Goulart from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.

However, new evidence against Bolsonaro closer to the election could influence “voters whose choice is less clearly defined,” she told AFP.

Lula was imprisoned for 580 days on corruption charges in 2018 and 2019, but his conviction was later overturned.

He and Flavio Bolsonaro are neck-and-neck in voting intentions ahead of the first round.

If, as expected, no one wins an outright majority, a runoff will be held on October 25.

Allegations of misconduct between two justices threaten to pull court into political battles ahead of upcoming election.

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Andre Mendonca has ordered the suspension of federal police chief Andrei Rodrigues and the force’s intelligence chief Leandro Almada amid growing divisions that have tested the credibility of the country’s highest court.

The suspensions were announced on Tuesday. Mendonca, appointed by former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, has accused Rodrigues and Almada of producing six illegal reports on the activities of justices.

The move was backed by a majority on one of the high court’s five-member panels.

But it is likely to be challenged by the government, possibly pulling the administration of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva into a political battle ahead of October’s presidential election.

“Investigating possible evidence of crimes is correct,” Institutional Relations Minister Jose Guimaraes, a top aide to Lula, said in response to the decision on social media. “But this measure smells electoral to me. That cannot happen.”

Polls show Lula and Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, in a tight race ahead of the first round of voting on October 4.

The Supreme Court has been roiled by mutual accusations of wrongdoing between Justice Alexandre de Moraes, appointed under centre-right President Michel Temer, and Mendonca, a Bolsonaro appointee.

De Moraes has become a prominent target of right-wing criticism, particularly after he oversaw the case against Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a coup after the 2022 election.

A report detailing possible links between de Moraes and disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro was made public by Mendonca last week.

De Moraes, however, responded by accusing Mendonca of abusing his power, citing federal police intelligence reports and urging the court to investigate him. Mendonca has now challenged the legality of those reports.

The Vorcaro corruption scandal has widened to include powerful political figures on both the left and right.

Vorcaro was arrested in 2025 for allegedly overseeing one of the largest bank fraud schemes in the history of Brazil, leaving billions in owed money.

Flavio Bolsonaro has also faced scrutiny for his ties with Vorcaro, after he approached the banker for assistance in funding a film about his father. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence.

The right-wing senator used Tuesday’s suspension to push his claim that the prosecution of his father was a political “witch-hunt”. The Federal Police had recommended charges be brought against the elder Bolsonaro in November 2024.

“Lula’s special group in the Federal Police officially unmasked,” Senator Bolsonaro wrote in a social media post. “May the honourable and glorious Federal Police regain its autonomy to go after criminals, and not Lula’s political adversaries.”

William Marcel Murad, the federal police’s executive director, released a statement saying that Rodrigues has the agency’s “full confidence” and that agents “will not be shaken by attacks”.