Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

United States President Donald Trump has described the Iranian leadership as “seriously fractured” as he announced an extension to a ceasefire.

Trump said on Tuesday that the ceasefire would be extended to allow more time for negotiations and appeared to be suggesting that Iran’s leadership is in disarray.

He added that the US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports would remain in place.

Three weeks ago, Trump claimed the US military campaign had succeeded in its goal of forcing a change in Iran’s government and the US was now dealing with “a whole new set of people” in charge of the country.

On April 11, Iran sent a delegation led by parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, to begin talks with the US.

So is Iran’s government “fractured”? We take a look at the key Iranian stakeholders and power centres in Iran and how their approach to US negotiations may differ.

Who are the key figures in Iran, and are they ‘fractured’ over talks with the US?

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

Khamenei is the second son of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US-Israeli air strikes on Tehran on the first day of the war on February 28. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran’s new supreme leader on March 8, according to state media reports.

The 56-year old has never run for office or been elected but has for decades been a highly influential figure in the inner circle of his father, cultivating deep ties with the the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Observers said the younger Khamenei’s ascension is a clear sign that more hardline factions in Iran’s establishment have retained power and could indicate that the government has little desire to agree to a deal or negotiations with the US in the short term.

Since his ascension, however, Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public. On March 13, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth claimed Iran’s new supreme leader had been wounded in US-Israeli strikes.

An April 11, a Reuters news agency report that quoted three people close to the supreme leader’s inner circle said Khamenei was still recovering from severe facial and leg injuries suffered in the air strike that killed his father. The sources were quoted as saying he was taking part in meetings with senior officials through audioconferencing.

Al Jazeera could not independently verify these claims.

According to state media reports, Khamenei has been active in making decisions on the war.

In a message read on Iranian state TV on April 18, Khamenei warned that the Iranian navy was ready to inflict “new bitter defeats” on the US and Israel as tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz.

Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

Ghalibaf, 64, has served as Iran’s parliamentary speaker since 2020.

He was commander of the IRGC air force from 1997 to 2000. After that, he served as the country’s police chief. From 2005 to 2017, he was the mayor of Tehran.

Ghalibaf stood in elections for president in 2005, 2013, 2017 and 2024. He withdrew his bid for president before the election in 2017 when Hassan Rouhani won a second term.

Last month in the early days of the US-Israel war on Iran, it was suggested that Ghalibaf was the Trump administration’s “pick” to lead the country after the war ended. He has also been the main Iranian official leading negotiations with Washington since they began on April 11 in Pakistan.

In an overnight post on X on Tuesday, Ghalibaf wrote that Iran is “prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield” after Trump threatened Tehran with “problems like they’ve never seen before” if the two-week ceasefire ended this week without a deal.

Ghalibaf expressed anger at Trump for “imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire”.

“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” he said.

The ceasefire was supposed to have ended on Wednesday, but shortly before its expiration, Trump extended it until Iran “can come up with a unified proposal”.

Within Iran, however, Ghalibaf’s willingness to engage in negotiations with the US has been criticised by some people who have accused him of “betrayal”.

According to a report on Monday by the Iran International TV channel, some critics of Ghalibaf have said on social media platforms in Iran that the parliamentary speaker’s suggestion that peace talks with the US were progressing was “worrying”.

“There is no good in negotiation except harm,” one critic said.

But Ghalibaf has defended undertaking negotiations with the US. In a televised interview on Saturday, he said diplomacy does not mean “a withdrawal from Iran’s demands” but is a way to “consolidate military gains and translate them into political outcomes and lasting peace”.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Iran’s military power structure is often described as opaque and complex.

The nation operates parallel armies, multiple intelligence services and layered command structures, all of which answer directly to the supreme leader, who serves as the commander in chief of all the armed forces.

The parallel armies comprise the Artesh, Iran’s regular army, which is responsible for territorial defence, defence of Iran’s airspace and conventional warfare, and the IRGC, whose role goes beyond defence and includes protecting Iran’s political structure.

The IRGC also controls Iran’s airspace and drone arsenal, which has become the backbone of Iran’s deterrence strategy against attacks by Israel and the US.

After the US and Israel struck Iran and killed Ali Khamenei, the IRGC promised revenge and launched what it called “the heaviest offensive operations in the history of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic against occupied lands [a reference to Israel] and the bases of American terrorists”. Since then, it has struck US military assets and infrastructure across the Gulf region.

Some experts said Iranian officials negotiating with the US are more closely aligned with the IRGC than other leaders and groups.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on March 25, Babak Vahdad, a political analyst specialising in Iran, noted that Iran’s appointment of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council suggested Iranian negotiations would become more tightly aligned with the IRGC’s priorities. Zolghadr is a former IRGC commander and has been secretary of the advisory Expediency Council since 2023.

But Javad Heiran-Nia, who directs the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran, said a divide between the IRGC and Iran’s negotiating team was plain to see.

Iran has attacked three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz since Trump announced the ceasefire on April 6 and said the US naval blockade will remain.

“The attack on tankers during the ceasefire demonstrates the IRGC’s dominance over the diplomatic team and its disregard for their positions,” he told Al Jazeera.

Paydari Front

Heiran-Nia pointed to the role of the Paydari Front (Steadfastness Front), whose members are hardliners within Iran’s political structure who are deeply committed to preserving the original principles of the 1979 Islamic revolution and the absolute power of the supreme leader. This group, he said, has been using the negotiations to cement its position within the power structure and among its support base.

He added that the Paydari Front has also been questioning the negotiations.

“In Iran’s current political climate, various groups are trying to raise their weight, both within the power structure and in public opinion. Of course, the Paydari Front’s efforts are more meaningful in relation to their own support base rather than trying to influence other segments of society because their hardline approach holds no appeal for other social classes,” he said.

The influence this group could have over the progress of talks is debatable, however, he added.

“If a deal is reached, it will likely have a sovereign character. The establishment will impose its own narrative, and the IRGC will accept it. In the meantime, the hardliners will attack the administration of [President] Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf over the deal. However, it is unlikely that this will spread to the decision-making body of the establishment,” he added.

Tehran, Iran – Iranian authorities say the United States needs to do more if an agreement is to be made to end the war as they urge their supporters to maintain control of the streets.

The US delegation at Saturday’s marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, “ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations”, said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker who led the Iranian team.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US Navy will immediately begin the process of “blockading any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz” in Iran’s southern waters. He also said the US military remains “locked and loaded” and will “finish up” Iran at the “appropriate moment”.

The fact that the Iranian delegation did not accede to Washington’s core demands of eliminating nuclear enrichment on Iranian soil and ending Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz was welcomed by Iranian authorities on Sunday as they projected defiance.

Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei thanked the delegation that went to Islamabad and said they “guarded the rights” of the supporters of Iran’s government, including paramilitary forces converging on main squares, streets and mosques in Tehran and other cities every night for more than six weeks.

When the delegations were engaged in the talks on Saturday night, a member of the aerospace division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was shown by state television telling flag-waving supporters in downtown Tehran not to be concerned.

“If the enemy does not understand, we will make them understand,” the man who was wearing military attire and a black mask to conceal his identity said to cheers from the crowd, some of whom demanded more missile and drone attacks from the IRGC.

State television also said it was Trump, not Tehran, that wished to “restore his image” through the negotiations and his “excessive demands” were the reason the talks failed.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it did not expect to reach an agreement after only one day of negotiations.

Multiple lawmakers in the hardliner-dominated parliament said they were happy that the talks did not yield results because they believed Iran had the upper hand in the war.

Hamidreza Haji-Babaei, the parliament speaker’s deputy, said the only thing acceptable to the establishment supporters who are on the streets is a United Nations Security Council resolution that would signal “surrender” for the US and lead to the lifting of sanctions against Iran and its leaders.

Amir Hossein Sabeti, a Tehran lawmaker affiliated with the Paydari faction of hardliners, said he was thankful to the negotiating team for “not backing away from red lines” and “there is no way left but to show resistance in the field against these evildoers and demons”.

More escalation ahead

This comes after some pro-state voices said they were disheartened by the abrupt announcement overnight into Wednesday of a two-week ceasefire and direct negotiations on ending the war with the US.

To assuage internal concerns, the Iranian delegation to Islamabad had more than 85 members, according to local media, including dozens of representatives from state-affiliated media and analysts close to different factions.

In addition to Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander who advanced Iran’s missile programme, senior members of the team included Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, hardline diplomat Ali Bagheri Kani, Defence Council head and former security chief Ali Akbar Ahmadian and moderate central bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati.

The talks on Saturday established that a diplomatic breakthrough was not close and that more escalation was likely, even if there is no immediate return to full-fledged fighting.

“What he [Trump] has been saying after the negotiations is just excessive talk. He is saying his wishes out loud,” Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the national security commission of Iran’s parliament, told state television on Sunday afternoon about Trump’s announced naval blockade and new threats.

The IRGC has threatened that it will respond to any passage of military vessels through the Strait of Hormuz with full force. It also rejected the US military’s announcement during the talks that two US warships had passed through the strait in preparation for an operation to clear naval mines blocking the strategic waterway.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a phone call on Sunday that he is ready to continue diplomatically facilitating a peace settlement in the Middle East.

Pezeshkian, who has been tasked mainly with working on domestic affairs, has supported continuity of the establishment and backing for Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader who has not been seen or heard from outside of written statements since Israel and the US launched the war on February 28. His government announced that schools and universities will be held online, using a limited local intranet, until further notice.

Iran’s economy continues to suffer from chronic inflation with more jobs lost in 2026 as the state continues to impose a near-total internet shutdown.

The US-Israel war on Iran has sparked a global fuel crisis as thousands of tankers carrying crucial deliveries of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) remain stranded on either side of the Strait of Hormuz, currently under a blockade imposed by Iran.

On Saturday, Egypt’s government said it is among the “best-performing” countries in tackling the crisis because of the measures it has implemented to save on fuel.

Here is what we know about the steps Egypt is taking and whether other countries are doing the same.

Why has the Iran war caused an energy crisis?

Pressure on oil and gas markets is mounting due to the almost complete halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as well as air strikes on and around key energy facilities in the Gulf as the United States-Israel war on Iran enters its sixth week.

One-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG is shipped from producers in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. This is the only route from the Gulf to the open ocean.

On March 2, two days after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander in chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was “closed”. If any vessels tried to pass through, he said, the IRGC and the navy would “set those ships ablaze”. Since then, traffic through the strait, carrying cargoes including 20 million barrels of oil each day, has plunged by more than 95 percent.

Now, Tehran is allowing just a handful of tankers through after reaching agreements with some countries to do so.

Besides this, energy infrastructure in the Middle East has suffered damage over the course of the war.

On March 24, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some of ⁠its long-term LNG supply contracts after an Iranian attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility – the largest in the world – wiped out about ⁠17 percent of the country’s LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and ⁠Asia.

All of this disruption has sent energy prices soaring. On Tuesday, global oil benchmark Brent crude was around $109 per barrel, compared to around $65 per barrel right before the war started.

How is Egypt tackling the energy crisis?

Egypt’s Petroleum Ministry has announced rises in fuel prices ranging from 14 percent to 30 percent.

On March 28, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly’s office told a press conference that the country’s energy import bill had increased from $1.2bn in January to $2.5bn in March.

Egypt is both one of the region’s largest energy importers and among its most heavily indebted economies. While domestic gas and oil account for the majority of its total energy supply, the country still relies on imported fuels, especially refined oil products and some natural gas, from Israel and the Gulf states.

Madbouly announced measures Egypt is taking to mitigate this and preserve state energy resources.

• From March 28, shops, malls and restaurants are closing at 9pm (19:00 GMT) every day for one month, except Thursdays and Fridays.
• On Thursdays and Fridays, the closing time will be 10pm (20:00 GMT).
• Fuel allocations for government vehicles will be reduced by 30 percent.
• Street lighting and street advertisement lighting will be cut by 50 percent.
• From April 1, eligible employees will work remotely on Sundays, the first day of the working week. Some essential services, such as pharmacies, grocery stores and tourist facilities, will be exempted from this.

Which other countries have introduced energy conservation measures?

Besides Egypt, other countries are also taking steps to save energy.

Last week, Malaysia ordered civil servants to work from home to save energy in government offices.

In mid-March, it was revealed that government offices in the Philippines had moved to a four-day work week, officials in Thailand and Vietnam were being encouraged to work from home and limit travel, and Myanmar’s government had imposed alternating driving days.

Pakistan, which imports about 80 percent of its energy from the Gulf, announced on Monday of this week that markets and shopping malls would close at 8pm (15:00 GMT) across the country, except in Sindh province. The government’s statement added that food outlets would close at 10pm (17:00 GMT), which is also when marriage ceremonies at private properties and houses must end.

Bangladesh has reduced working hours for government and private workers and banking services hours in a bid to conserve electricity.

In Sri Lanka and Slovenia, authorities have introduced fuel rationing and purchase limits to manage shortages and soaring costs.

United States President Donald Trump said early on Sunday that an American soldier who went missing in Iran after the downing of his F-15E jet has been rescued following what observers called a dramatic firefight between Iranian and US rescue forces.

The US and Iran were racing to find the airman for about two days, with Tehran calling on the public to hand over the soldier to the authorities in what appeared to be attempts to capture an American prisoner of war as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its 37th day.

That scenario would have delivered a significant win to Tehran amid the ongoing pummelling of its territory, and for Washington, a stunning blow, analysts say. It could have been the moment that parts of Trump’s support base, which has so far supported the war, started to rethink their stance, they say.

“It was a major test for the American military because they really don’t want to leave any of their servicemen behind enemy lines,” Amin Saikal, a professor of Middle East and Central Asian studies at the Australian National University, told Al Jazeera.

But this rescue “also really frees up President Trump to pursue whatever strategy he has in mind”, Saikal added, referencing Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Iran to make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz “before all Hell will reign down on them”. Trump has already threatened to bomb energy plants in Iran. Targeting of civilian infrastructure is seen as a violation of the laws of war.

At least 2,076 people have been killed, and 26,500 have been injured in Iran since February 28, when the US and Israel first launched strikes on Iran and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and several other senior military and political leaders.

The conflict has since escalated into a regional war with Iran retaliating against Gulf countries hosting US military and commercial assets.

What happened to the missing airman?

The F-15E jet carrying two members was flying over southern Iran when it was shot down on Friday morning local time.

According to Tehran, the aircraft was shot down by Iran’s “new advanced air defence system”, which it said remained effective despite claims by the US that it had been destroyed.

It was the first time during the war, and the first time since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, that a US aircraft had been shot down.

Washington immediately launched a rescue mission. Although US forces rescued one crew member hours after the crash, the second pilot, believed to be a colonel-rank weapons system officer, was yet to be found.

At least one Black Hawk helicopter was hit in the initial rescue, but US officials said it managed to stay airborne.

Trump suggested that the US appeared to have the location of the airman and was tracking him as the rescue mission unfolded in an area with difficult, mountainous terrain that made physical recovery challenging.

An A-10 Warthog aircraft was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz around the same time as the F-15E, but its pilot was able to eject before the plane crashed and was subsequently rescued. Iranian media reported that this aircraft was also hit by Iran’s defence system.

How did Iran react?

Following the downing of the F-15E, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cordoned off some parts of the mountainous southwestern Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province because they believed the airman went down in the vicinity.

Iranian media also reported that parts of the southern Khuzestan region, an important energy hub, were being scrutinised. That region was the focus of heavy US-Israeli strikes on Saturday that killed at least five people and injured dozens.

Iranian authorities, in a rare move, called on the public on Friday to help find and capture the missing American soldier. State media reported that Tehran offered a $60,000 reward for the airman as clips on state TV repeatedly played footage showing the remnants of the downed US aircraft.

Nomadic tribes in the area, appearing to heed the calls, set about searching for the US airman. Footage from state media showed men carrying rifles and Iranian flags moving in between the mountains of the country’s southwest region.

Some successfully shot at two US Black Hawks that were part of the rescue mission, Iranian officials said. The BBC also verified footage appearing to show Iranian men firing their rifles at US helicopters.

Nomadic groups in Iran, and elsewhere, usually carry rifles to protect their cattle from wildlife and bandits.

The IRGC on Sunday claimed that Iranian forces destroyed two C-130 aircraft and two Black Hawk helicopters during the operation to rescue the US pilot in southern Isfahan.

What did the US do to retrieve the soldier?

Early on Sunday morning, Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that the missing soldier had been rescued in “one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S History”.

“This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue,” Trump said in his message.

The president revealed some details of the high-risk operation. He had ordered that dozens of aircraft carrying “lethal weapons” be sent in to retrieve the airman who had managed to evade Iranian forces for two days. All the while, the US was tracking the airman.

Although Trump did not reveal details of the firefight believed to have ensued when the US closed in on the airman and went to retrieve him, he confirmed that the officer “sustained injuries” and added that “he will be just fine”.

Al Jazeera’s John Hendren gathered that there was a “heavy firefight” as what was meant to be a “get-in and get-out” rescue operation dragged on.

While US forces had aimed to use the cover of night to conduct the rescue mission after closing in on the airman, enemy fire prolonged the mission into daylight, making it more dangerous.

“We’ve heard it described to us as a heavy firefight,” Hendren reported. “In the end, they managed to spirit that airman out of the country … and into safety, but it didn’t come without injuries, including injuries to that airman himself, but in the end, the US was allowed to avoid a situation where they would have a prisoner of war inside of Iran.”

Hendren added that the US had earlier started a disinformation campaign in Iran, according to officials, claiming the airman was already rescued, to jeopardise Iran’s search.

Iran has not yet confirmed the incident. Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said the firefight appeared to have occurred in the Kohgiluyeh Boyer-Ahmad region, and that nine people have been reported killed in “strikes”, although it is unclear if it was related to the US rescue mission.

Meanwhile, Iranian authorities said on Sunday morning that yet another US aircraft – a Lockheed C-130 Hercules – had been downed.

The US has not responded to those claims. At least one such aircraft was spotted flying low over southwest Iran, along with two smaller refuelling helicopters, during the rescue mission effort of the last 48 hours.

Tehran says it is the fourth attack near the nuclear plant amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

One person has been killed by projectile fragments after United States-Israeli strikes targeted a location close to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The agency, citing confirmation from Iranian authorities, said in a statement on X that there was “no increase in radiation levels” after Saturday’s attack.

Later on Saturday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed the Bushehr facility had been “bombed” four times since the war erupted, criticising what he described as a lack of concern for its safety.

The strike comes as the US and Israel escalate their targeting of Iranian industrial sites, even as experts warn of the high risks of striking nuclear or petrochemical facilities.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi expressed “deep concern about the reported incident and says [nuclear] sites or nearby areas must never be attacked, noting that auxiliary site buildings may contain vital safety equipment”, the statement read.

Grossi also reiterated a “call for maximum military restraint to avoid risk of a nuclear accident,” the IAEA added.

The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) confirmed the incident, also in a post on X.

An “auxiliary” building on the site was damaged, but the main sections of the power plant were not affected by the strike, the government agency said, adding that the person killed was a member of security personnel.

It’s the fourth time the site has been attacked since the start of the US and Israel’s war on Iran, the AEOI noted.

The Bushehr plant is Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant. It is located in Bushehr city, home to 250,000 people, and is one of Iran’s most important industrial and military nodes.

Meanwhile, US and Israeli strikes on Saturday hit several petrochemical plants in the southern Khuzestan region, an important energy hub, according to Iranian media.

At least five people are reported injured.

Explosions were heard, and smoke was also seen rising after missiles hit several locations across the Mahshahr Petrochemical Special Economic Zone.

The state-run Bandar Imam petrochemical complex, which produces chemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), polymers and a range of other products, was struck and sustained damage, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported.

A provincial governor in Khuzestan added that the Fajr 1 and 2 petrochemical companies, as well as other nearby facilities, were also hit, according to the Fars news agency. The extent of damage is unclear.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it shot down an MQ-1 drone over central Isfahan province on Saturday, hours after authorities said they forced down two US warplanes.

Isfahan, which houses an underground uranium conversion and a research site, was one of three facilities bombed during US and Israeli strikes on Iran last June.

United States President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he wishes to “take the oil” in Iran, as the US-Israel war against Iran enters its second month.

On Monday, President Trump threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure, including oil wells, if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been under a de facto Iranian blockade for weeks, triggering a global energy crisis.

The Trump administration has unveiled no clear goal behind its military campaign against Iran, one of the world’s biggest oil producers and under US sanctions for decades.

Here is more about what Trump says, how much oil Iran has, and whether Trump could take it.

What has Trump said about Iran’s oil?

Trump told the Financial Times that his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran and that US forces could seize Iran’s export hub at Kharg Island.

Kharg is a 22-square-kilometre (8.5-square-mile) coral outcrop in Iran’s Bushehr province. Closely guarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), entry to the island is restricted to those with official security clearance.

Kharg processes 90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports, handling approximately 1.5 million barrels every day.

On March 14, Trump announced that the US Air Force had bombed Iranian military facilities on the island.

“For reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Critics say the Trump administration was emboldened by the success of its brazen military operation in January to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas. Washington says it is now in control of Venezuela’s oil exports.

Earlier this month, Trump claimed that 100 ⁠million barrels of Venezuelan oil had been brought to refineries in Houston, Texas in the US. He added that ⁠an additional 100 ⁠million barrels of Venezuelan ⁠oil were on the way.

Ties between Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven reserves of crude oil, and Washington had deteriorated under former President Hugo Chavez, who decided to nationalise the oil sector. Relations collapsed further under Maduro, who succeeded Chavez in 2013. Venezuela’s current interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, has since opened the sector for private investment.

How much oil does Iran have?

Iran is one of the world’s biggest oil producers.

The country holds the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves and the third-largest crude oil reserves, according to the United States Energy Information Administration.

Iran holds around 24 percent of the Middle East’s and 12 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, with about 157 billion barrels of proven crude oil.

It is the ninth-largest oil producer globally, and the fourth-largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), producing about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.

Before the war, Iran was exporting around two million barrels of crude and refined fuel each day, though its exports dropped dramatically after Trump slapped sanctions on Iran in 2018 during his first term in power. The Iran nuclear deal signed under US President Barack Obama in 2015 – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – placed limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief in place for decades.

The US cut diplomatic ties with Iran after pro-Washington ruler Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was toppled in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis involving US citizens.

Can the US seize Iranian oil?

The Pentagon is preparing for limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials quoted by the Washington Post newspaper.

The plans, which fall short of a full invasion, could involve raids in special operations and by conventional infantry troops, the newspaper reported on Saturday.

However, even if the US invades or occupies Kharg Island, this would not give the US access to Iranian oil.

In order to access Iranian oil, the US would have to occupy Iran’s oil production sites and refineries. In essence, the US would need to occupy mainland Iran.

What would it mean if the US were to take Iranian oil?

In 2023, Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) was around $457.5bn, according to World Bank data.

In the same year, Iran’s net oil export revenues were estimated at $53bn.

That export figure is equivalent to roughly 12 percent of Iran’s GDP, although export revenues and GDP are not directly comparable.

At the same time, if the US were to lift sanctions on Iranian oil after seizing it, it could lead to a flow of more Iranian oil into global markets, bringing down oil prices.

Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The US first imposed sanctions on Iran in November 1979, after Iranian students stormed its embassy in Tehran and took Americans hostage. The hostage crisis ended when dozens of US citizens were released after more than a year.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has sent global oil prices soaring. Benchmark Brent crude rose to more than 3 percent on Monday to $116 a barrel – the highest level in nearly two weeks. The oil price was about $65 per barrel before the war.

Has the US tried to interfere in Iranian oil before?

Yes; this is not the first time the US has shown an interest in Iranian oil.

In 1953, the government of Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran’s first democratically elected prime minister, was toppled in a CIA-orchestrated coup after he nationalised the British-controlled firm Anglo‑Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), the predecessor of modern-day BP.

Washington framed the operation – codenamed “Operation Ajax” – as a Cold War necessity to keep Iran and its energy reserves out of Soviet hands.

The coup restored and entrenched the shah’s rule, a turning point that still haunts Iran’s relationship with the West.

Neighbouring Iraq’s oil revenue is still effectively under US control more than two decades after the US invaded the Middle East nation. Iraq’s oil revenues are deposited into an account at the Federal Reserve Bank in the US before making it to Baghdad.

As the United States-Israeli war on Iran enters its fourth week this weekend, pressure on oil and gas markets continues to mount due to severe disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as well as attacks on and around key energy facilities in the Gulf.

In peacetime, 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped from producers in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz – the only route to the open ocean – including 20 million barrels of oil per day.

To bridge the shortage its closure has caused, countries in the Middle East are exploring alternative routes to get energy exports out.

In this explainer, we look at three major pipelines in the Middle East that producers may be pinning their hopes on, and whether they can fill the gap.

What has happened in the Strait of Hormuz?

On March 2 – two days after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran – Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was “closed”. If any vessels tried to pass through, he said, the IRGC and the navy would “set those ships ablaze”. Since then, traffic through the strait has plunged by more than 95 percent.

Iranian officials have most recently stated that the strait is not completely closed – except to ships belonging to the US, Israel and those who collaborate with them – but have also laid down new ground rules. Any vessel must secure Tehran’s approval to transit through the narrow waterway.

As a result, over the past fortnight, countries have been scrambling to do deals with Iran to secure safe passage and a few, mostly Indian, Pakistani and Chinese-flagged tankers have been allowed to pass.

On Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thanked Tehran for granting Malaysian vessels “early clearance” through the strait.

Meanwhile, about 2,000 ships flying the flags of other nations are stuck on either side of the strait.

Which oil pipelines could serve as alternate routes?

The only alternative to shipping oil is piping it across land or under the sea. Three oil pipelines could work as ways around the Strait of Hormuz, including:

Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline

The East-West pipeline is also known as the Petroline and is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. Aramco is one of the world’s largest companies, with a market capitalisation exceeding $1.7 trillion and annual revenues of $480bn. The oil giant controls 12 percent of global oil production, with a capacity of more than 12 million bpd.

It is a 1,200km (745-mile) pipeline which runs from the Abqaiq oil processing centre close to the Gulf in Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, on the other side of the country.

However, the pipeline does not have the capacity to fully make up for the Hormuz closure.

In 2024, about 20 million barrels per day (bpd) passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the United Nations. Crude oil and condensate made up 14 million bpd of this, while petroleum was the remaining 6 million bpd.

The East-West pipeline has the capacity of transporting up to 7 million bpd. On March 10, Aramco said about 5 million bpd could be made available for exports, while the rest could supply local refineries.

Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February, Saudi Arabia has ramped up its oil flow through this pipeline. In January and February, an average of 770,000 bpd flowed through the pipeline, according to data from Kpler, a data and analytics company. By Tuesday this week, this had increased to an average of 2.9 million bpd.

However, using the Saudi pipeline still carries a risk.

The Houthis, an Iran-backed Yemeni armed group whose attacks on ships in the Red Sea caused global shipping chaos during Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, could target the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean beyond.

An unnamed Houthi leader told the Reuters news agency that the Houthis remain ready to attack the Red Sea again in solidarity with Tehran, the agency reported on Thursday.

“We stand fully militarily ready with all options. As for other details having to do with determining zero hour they are left to leadership and we are monitoring and following up with the developments and will know when is the suitable time to move,” the Houthi leader said.

The Bab al-Mandeb is the southern outlet of the Red Sea, situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast.

It is one of the world’s most important routes for global seaborne commodity shipments, particularly crude oil and fuel from the Gulf bound for the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.

The Bab al-Mandeb is 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for inbound and outbound shipments.

Iran could open a new front in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory or its islands, Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim cited an unnamed Iranian military source as saying on Wednesday.

UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline is also called the ADCOP or the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

The 380km pipeline runs from Habshan, an oil and gasfield in the southwestern area of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

The pipeline, which became operational in 2012, has a capacity of about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). It is unclear how much is now being transported through the pipeline.

However, oil exports from Fujairah do appear to have risen in the past month despite the closure of the strait, averaging 1.62 million bpd in March compared with 1.17 million bpd in February, according to Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball, who spoke to Reuters.

Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline

The Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, links Iraq to the Mediterranean coast of Turkiye.

The pipeline, which has the capacity of 1.6 million bpd, currently carries about 200,000bpd.

Iraq is among the top five global producers of oil and is the second largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), exceeding 4 million bpd.

Can these pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz?

No. While these pipelines can take on some of the capacity of Hormuz, their combined capacity is only about 9 million bpd, compared with about 20 million bpd for the strait.

Additionally, these pipelines are land-based and within the range of Iranian missiles and drones, which makes them just as vulnerable to attacks and damage in the ongoing conflict as ships travelling through the strait. Throughout the war, energy infrastructure all over the Gulf has suffered strikes.

Are there other options?

Theoretically, oil can be transported on trucks, but this is costly, slow and inefficient.

A standard truck can carry anywhere between 100 to 700 barrels per day, depending on the number of trips. Hundreds of thousands of barrels would be needed to meet needs, requiring thousands of trucks, which could also be targeted in strikes.

Iran’s paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz has led to major disruption in global oil and gas supply and many countries have begun tapping into their strategic oil reserves to evade an economic crisis.

Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, Tehran, whose territorial waters extend into the Strait, has blocked the passage of vessels carrying 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf to the rest of the world. The strait is the only waterway to open ocean available for Gulf oil and gas producers.

Last week, the price of Brent crude topped $100 a barrel compared to the pre-war price of around $65.

The United States Trump administration has tried and failed to re-open the strait. First, it called on Western nations to send warships to help escort shipping through the strait – an option all have declined or failed to respond to. Then, on Sunday, Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the strait or face US attacks on its power plants.

However, on Sunday, Iran said it would hit back at power plants in Israel and those in the region supplying electricity to US military assets. And, on Monday, Iran said it would completely shut the Strait of Hormuz if US attacks on its energy infrastructure continue.

Following Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf over the past three weeks, countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and Kuwait have also cut their oil output, raising further concerns about global oil and gas supply.

On Monday, Trump appeared to backtrack on his Hormuz ultimatum when he ordered all US strikes on power plants in Iran to be paused for five days and claimed the US was holding talks with Iran. Iran has denied this.

In the face of chaos, on March 11, the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic emergency reserves – the largest stock draw in the agency’s history. It is far higher than the 2022 release of 182 million barrels of oil by the group’s members after Russia invaded Ukraine.

What are strategic oil reserves and which countries hold them?

What is a strategic oil reserve?

A strategic oil reserve or strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) is an emergency stockpile of crude oil which is held by the government of a country in government facilities.

This oil reserve can be drawn on in cases of emergencies like wars and economic crises. Governments generally buy the oil through agreements with private companies in order to keep their reserves filled.

According to the IEA, its members currently hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of these public emergency oil stocks with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held by private organisations but under government mandate to be available to supplement public needs.

Other reserves are also held by non IEA members like China.

Which countries have strategic oil reserves? Can they withstand the war in Iran?

China

Beijing is not an IEA member, but holds the world’s largest strategic oil reserve.

According to China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing “started a state strategic oil reserve base programme in 2004 as a way to offset oil supply risks and reduce the impact of fluctuating energy prices worldwide on China’s domestic market for refined oil”.

“The bases are designed to maintain strategic oil reserves of an equivalent to 30 days of imports, or about 10 million tonnes,” according to a 2007 report from Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

These strategic oil reserves are primarily located along China’s eastern and southern coastal regions such as Shandong, Zhejiang and Hainan.

China does not officially publish information about its crude inventories so it is not clear how much oil the country has in reserve. However, according to energy analytics firm Vortexa, in 2025, “China’s onshore crude inventories (excluding underground storage) continued to rise… reaching a record 1.13 billion barrels by year-end”.

According to data from Kpler, China bought more than 80 percent of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025. As the war in Iran escalates, therefore, Chinese companies such as refiner Sinopec have begun pushing for permission to use oil from the country’s reserves according to a Reuters report on Monday.

“We basically won’t buy Iranian oil, this is pretty clear,” Sinopec President Zhao Dong told a company results briefing in March, according to Reuters.

“We believe the government is closely monitoring crude oil and refined fuel inventories and market situations, and will advance policies at the appropriate ⁠time to support refinery productions,” he added.

US

Of the IEA members, the US holds one of the largest strategic oil reserves with 415 million barrels of oil. The stores are maintained by the US Department of Energy. It has confirmed that it will release 172 million barrels of oil from its SPR over this year as its contribution to coordinated efforts with the IEA.

On Friday, the Trump’s administration announced that it has already lent 45.2 million barrels of crude from the SPR to oil companies.

The US created its SPR in 1975 after an Arab oil embargo triggered a spike in gasoline prices which badly affected the US economy.

The reserves are located near big US refining or petrochemical centres, and as much as 4.4 million barrels of oil can be shipped globally per day.

The SPR currently covers roughly 200 days of net crude imports, according to a Reuters news agency calculation.

US presidents have tapped into the stockpile to calm oil markets during war or when hurricanes have hit oil infrastructure along the US Gulf of Mexico.

In March 2024, US President Joe Biden announced oil would be released from the reserve to ease pressure from oil price spikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and amid subsequent sanctions imposed on Russian oil by the US and its allies.

Japan

An IEA member, Japan also has one of the world’s largest strategic oil reserves.

According to Japanese media Nikkei Asia, at the end of 2025, the country held about 470 million barrels of in emergency reserves which is enough to meet 254 days of domestic consumption. Out of this amount, 146 days worth of oil are government-owned, 101 days are owned by the private sector, and the remainder is jointly stored by oil-producing countries.

Japan set up its national oil reserve system in 1978 to prevent future economic disruptions following the global oil crisis in 1973. That oil crisis heightened Japan’s vulnerability and dependence on oil from abroad. The country remains one of the world’s largest oil importers, relying on fossil fuels from overseas for about 80 percent of its energy needs.

Japan’s reserves are primarily located in 10 coastal national stockholding bases with major storage sites in the Shibushi base in Kagoshima in southern Japan.

On March 16, Japan announced that it had begun releasing oil from its emergency reserves amid the global energy crisis sparked by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told journalists the country would unilaterally release 80 million barrels of oil from stockpiles amid supply concerns.

UK

As of February 26, according to the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, the UK holds about 38 million ⁠barrels of crude oil and 30 million barrels of refined products, as strategic reserves. The reserves are thought to be able to last around 90 days.

The country established its reserves in 1974 following the oil crisis of the 1970s and also to meet its IEA obligations. Members of the organisation are required to maintain at least 90 days of net imports in reserve.

The UK’s strategic reserves are largely held by private oil companies, but are regulated by the government. Milford Haven in South Wales and Humber in northeast England are key locations of reserves.

The country is among the 32 IEA nations releasing oil from its reserve to address the oil crisis amid the war in Iran. The UK government will be contributing 13.5 million barrels as a part of the release.

EU

EU member nations including Germany, France, Spain and Italy, all IEA members, also hold strategic oil reserves.

Germany has 110 million barrels of crude oil and 67 million barrels of finished petroleum products which are held by the government and can be released in a matter of days, according to Germany’s economy ministry.

France reported about 120 million barrels’ worth of crude and finished products in reserve at the end of 2024, the most recent data publicly available. About 97 million barrels of that is held by SAGESS, a government-mandated entity, with ‌a breakdown ⁠of about 30 percent crude oil, 50 percent gasoil, 9 percent gasoline, 7.8 percent jet fuel and some heating oil. Another 39 million barrels are held by the country’s oil operators.

On March 16, Spain approved the release of around 11.5 million barrels of oil reserves over 90 days to counter ⁠supply shortages caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Energy Minister Sara Aagesen told reporters. This is the country’s contribution to the IEA release. The country has around 150 million barrels of crude oil reserves in total.

Italy, by law, was holding about 76 million barrels of reserves, representing 90 days of Italy’s average net oil imports, in 2024.

Israeli and US air attacks pound Iran as assassination campaign of country’s leadership continues.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson has been killed in overnight strikes carried out jointly by the United States and Israel, the IRGC reported, the latest in a mounting toll of senior officials assassinated since the war began.

Ali Mohammad Naini, a 68-year-old brigadier general who took up the IRGC spokesman role in 2024, “was martyred in the criminal cowardly terrorist attack by the American-Zionist side at dawn”, the IRGC said in a statement on Friday.

His death came just hours after he appeared on national television to insist that Iran retained full capacity to manufacture missiles, even under wartime conditions.

“Our missile industry deserves a perfect score … and there is no concern in this regard, because even under wartime conditions we continue missile production,” Naini was quoted by the Fars news agency as saying.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium and manufacture ballistic missiles”.

The Israeli army said on Friday that it was carrying out strikes across eastern Tehran, as the country marks the Persian New Year, Nowruz, which this year coincides with Eid al-Fitr.

Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall, reporting from Tehran, described the mood in the capital as “hushed”, with none of the customary festivities visible on the streets.

Naini’s killing is the latest in a string of high-profile assassinations that have gutted Iran’s establishment in under three weeks.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening hours of the joint military campaign. He has since been replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Earlier this week, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and one of the most influential figures in Iran’s establishment, was killed in a strike along with his son and several aides.

The head of the Basij paramilitary forces, Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib were also confirmed dead within the same 48-hour period.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made little effort to conceal Washington’s glee, saying on Thursday that “the last job anyone in the world wants right now” is a senior leadership role in the IRGC or Basij.

However, other US officials appeared to suggest that Washington and Israel’s aims in Israel were not aligned.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the House Intelligence Committee this week that US and Israeli objectives “are different”, adding that while Israel had been “focused on disabling the Iranian leadership,” Trump’s goals were to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities “and their navy”.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has cast the killings as a means of opening a path for Iranians to reclaim their country, saying on Wednesday the campaign against the country’s leadership “will not happen all at once” but that persistence would give Iranians “a chance to take their fate into their own hands”.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US and Israel had still failed to grasp that Iran’s political structure does not rest on any single person.

“The presence or absence of a single individual does not affect this structure,” he said.

March 17 (UPI) — Israel said Tuesday it killed Basij paramilitary force commander Gholamreza Soleimani in an overnight airstrike in Tehran.

Specifics on the strike were scant, but The Times of Israel reported the Israel Defense Forces targeted Soleimani at a camp he had recently established in Tehran after the paramilitary’s headquarters were destroyed.

Established in 1980, the Basij is a volunteer paramilitary reserve force under Iran’s influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency. The force — which the website for Iran’s supreme leader says consists of millions of members — was sanctioned by the United States for human rights abuses in 2011 and designated as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in 2018.

Soleimani was appointed in 2019 to lead the Basij, which has been accused of helping suppress protests inside Iran through violence, mass arrests and force against demonstrators.

“The elimination of Soleimani adds to that of dozens of senior commanders from the armed forces of the Iranian regime who have been eliminated during the operation, and constitutes an additional significant blow to the regime’s security command-and-control structures,” the IDF said in a statement on Telegram.

“The IDF will continue to operate with determination against commanders of the Iranian terror regime.”

Iran has yet to respond to the report as of Tuesday morning.

The IDF said it conducted a wave of strikes Monday targeting military infrastructure in the Iranian cities of Tehran, Shiraz and Tabriz.

Its warplanes dropped dozens of munitions on security force command centers in Tehran, including those belonging to the Basij, the IDF said in an earlier Tuesday statement.

“The completed strikes are part of an ongoing effort focused on deepening the damage to the Iranian terror regime’s core systems and weakening its capacity to threaten the State of Israel,” it said.

Later Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office published a photo on social media showing him on the phone, accompanied by a caption saying he was “ordering the elimination of senior regime officials.”

March 17 (UPI) — U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has designated a Jewish Iranian-American imprisoned for nearly a year in Iran as wrongfully detained, according to his family.

Kamran Hekmati, a jeweler and longtime resident of Great Neck, N.Y., was detained by Iranian authorities at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport on May 17, according to the Bring Kamran Home website.

He was in the country for a family matter, and was detained while attempting to return to the United States. The website states he was formally arrested on July 28, less than two weeks after the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

His family told UPI in a statement that they were notified on Monday of Rubio’s designation, an official recognition that the United States believes Hekmati is being held in Iran on false charges.

“We are so grateful to President [Donald] Trump and Secretary Rubio for their designation of Kamran Hekmati as a wrongful detainee,” Shohreh Nowfar, Hekmati’s cousin, said in a statement provided to UPI by Global Reach, a U.S. nonprofit that advocates for Americans imprisoned abroad.

“It reassures us that our government has our back in the effort to get Kamran home safely.”

UPI has contacted the State Department for comment and confirmation. Its Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs becomes involved once an American citizen is determined to be wrongfully detained.

Hekmati emigrated to the United States following the 1979 revolution.

According to his website, Hekmati was charged with allegedly visiting Israel within the last 10 years based on photos found on his phone of a trip he took to the country for his son’s bar mitzvah. He was sentenced to two years in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison. Advocates said the trip took place 13 years ago.

Hekmati was detained amid growing tensions between the allies, the United States and Israel, and Iran. Iranian authorities formally charged him two weeks after the Trump administration bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

He was again charged by Iran in December as tensions rose in the Middle East. Tehran authorities accuse him of meeting with agents of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency.

He is reportedly a bladder cancer survivor but requires regular medical testing and preventive medical procedures to guard against its recurrence.

“Kamran appears to be caught up in Iran’s traditional approach of detaining Americans to obtain political concessions from the U.S.,” his advocacy website states.

The announcement comes months after Reps. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat, and Claudia Tenney, a Republican, both from New York, urged Rubio in an early December letter to secure Hekmati’s release and to designate him as wrongfully detained.

Rubio designated Iran a state sponsor of wrongful detention on Feb. 27, a day before the United States and Israel launched their ongoing war with Tehran.

Iranian-American journalist Reza Valizadeh — arrested by Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in September 2024 and sentenced to 10 years in prison — was also officially designated as wrongfully detained in May.

Nowfar told UPI that the wrongfully detained designation made clear “that the senior-most people in the White House know that Kamran, Reza and the others are being held by the Iranians and conveyed to the Iranians that they will be held accountable for their safety.”

March 16 (UPI) — Emergency services in the United Arab Emirates were battling a major blaze at the country’s strategically key Fujairah oil export hub on Monday morning after the second drone strike on the facility in two days.

Emirate of Fujairah authorities said in a post on X that no one had been hurt in the attack on the Fujairah Industrial Petroleum Zone and that efforts were ongoing to bring the fire under control. They appealed to people to refrain from spreading misinformation.

“Civil defense teams in the Emirate immediately responded to the incident and are continuing their efforts to control it. The competent authorities call on the public not to circulate rumours and to obtain information only from official sources,” wrote the Fujairah Media Office.

The facility is strategically important because it is the only oil export terminal on the UAE’s eastern coast, located on the Gulf of Oman, the “good” end of the Strait of Hormuz.

Critically, it means oil tankers servicing the port do not need to run the gauntlet of the 21-mile-wide sea lane that Iran has effectively closed.

An approximately 250-mile-long cross-country oil pipeline from Habshan, a key onshore field 80 miles southwest of Abu Dhabi, feeds as much as 1.8 million barrels per day of crude into Fujairah.

However, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened ports, docks, military facilities and other “legitimate” U.S. targets in the UAE while the state media uged workers and residents in and around Fujairah, Jebel Ali and Khalifa ports to evacuate due to the presence of U.S. military forces.

Monday’s incident, following on from a separate strike and fire on Saturday, highlighted how exposed Fujairah — one of the world’s key crude oil and fuel storage hubs — was to Iranian threats.

The UAE has been repeatedly targeted by Iranian drones and missiles since the United States launched its airborne offensive against Iran on Feb. 28.

A drone attack earlier Monday that forced the temporary grounding of all flights at Dubai International Airport after a fire erupted in a fuel tank close by and an announcement by Israel that it was nowhere near done with hitting Iran indicated the war was likely headed into a third week.

Israel also announced plans for an expansion of its ground offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah operatives and strongholds after the Iranian proxy group attacked Israel with rockets and missiles on March 2, two days into the war.

An Israeli bombing campaign and targeted actions by ground forces has already forced hundreds of thousands of civilians in the country to flee their homes and killed more than 850, more than 170 of them women and children, according to the Lebanon Health Ministry.

European Union foreign ministers were set to meet on Monday in Brussels to discuss the situation in the region as oil prices continued their upward trajectory with the benchmark Brent crude futures briefly hitting $106 per barrel during trade on Monday.

Shipping of oil, gas and all cargo through the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled despite calls by U.S. President Donald Trump at the weekend for countries that get their oil from Gulf producers to step up and help restart movement of ships in and out of the Persian Gulf.

Heavy Israeli strikes have hit Tehran, Iran, as its allies launch attacks across Gulf states, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted, sending global oil prices soaring.

Meanwhile, political pressure is mounting in Washington as the conflict spreads across the region.

Here is what we know about what has been happening in the past 24 hours:

In Iran

Supreme leader speaks: Appointed last week following the assassination of his father, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued his first statement, warning that attacks on Israel and US military assets and infrastructure in the Middle East will continue unless bases hosting US forces in the region are closed.

Heavy strikes on Tehran: The Israeli military has launched a new “extensive wave” of air attacks on Iran’s capital, Tehran, leaving the city covered in thick smoke on Friday morning.

Strait of Hormuz closure and surging oil prices: The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is closed, causing Brent crude oil prices to surge past $100 per barrel. The strait, which falls into the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, is the only waterway to the open sea available to oil and gas producers in the Gulf. Iran has stated that the strait is under Iranian control and US-and Israel-linked ships are banned. Other vessels must receive Iranian permission to pass.

Civilian casualties: Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said at least 1,348 civilians have been killed, with victims ranging in age from eight months to 88 years old.

In Gulf countries

Regional retaliation and attacks: Iran has launched waves of drones and missiles towards Gulf countries that host US military assets and troops, and has targeted oil tankers and facilities.

Bahrain: The nation has reported intercepting 114 missiles and 190 drones since the war began on February 28.

Saudi Arabia: The country intercepted 10 drones over its eastern region and later destroyed an additional 28 drones that breached its airspace.

Attacks on the UAE: The country has strongly condemned Iranian strikes on the region, and said they have hit Dubai International Airport and some hotels.

Evacuations: Australia has ordered all “non-essential” officials to leave the United Arab Emirates and Israel, and urged its citizens to evacuate the Middle East while it is still safe to do so

Qatar’s response: Qatar’s airspace is officially closed, but Qatar Airways has scheduled more than 140 special flights to help repatriate stranded residents and citizens.

Qatar has strongly rejected Israeli media claims that it intentionally paused liquefied natural gas (LNG) production to manipulate US energy prices; officials clarified that the suspension was actually forced by an Iranian drone attack.

In the US

Trump claims war moving ‘rapidly’: US President Donald Trump told reporters the war against Iran was moving “very rapidly”.

“It’s doing very well, our military is unsurpassed,” he said at the White House, not directly responding to the latest comments from Iran’s new supreme leader.

Domestic opposition: More than 250 US organisations have signed a letter calling on Congress to halt funding for the war. They argue the $11.3bn spent in the first six days of the conflict is diverting crucial funds from urgent domestic needs, such as food benefits.

No ‘need’ for ground troops in Iran: US Senator Lindsey Graham has played down the possibility of US troops being deployed to Iran, but suggested the war could continue for some time. “I don’t see this conflict ending today,” the Republican senator told reporters in Washington, DC.

In Israel

New missile wave launched at Israel: The Israeli military said early on Friday that Iran had fired a new barrage of missiles towards Israel, and instructed people in affected areas to head to shelters.

Israel strikes Basij force: Israel’s military said it had struck checkpoints set up in Tehran by the Basij force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as part of efforts to undermine control by the authorities.

Regime change: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel can create conditions for regime change, but it is up to Iran’s people to take to the streets. He also said Israel is aiming to stop Iran from moving nuclear and ballistic projects underground.

In Lebanon, Iraq

Downed US aircraft: A US KC-135 refuelling aircraft crashed in western Iraq. While the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed it shot the aircraft down using air defence systems, US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated the aircraft went down in “friendly airspace” and was not the result of hostile fire.

Iraqi port closures: Iraq has shut its port operations after an Indian crew member was killed during an attack on a US-owned oil tanker in Iraqi waters.

Six French soldiers hurt: A drone attack wounded six French soldiers in Erbil, in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday.

Deadly attacks in southern Lebanon: Israeli bombardments continue on southern towns and villages. A strike on the village of Arki, near Sidon, killed nine people, including five children.

Mounting death toll and mass displacement: Lebanese officials have reported that at least 687 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since last Monday, including 98 children. The intense bombardments have displaced an estimated 700,000 to 750,000 people from their homes.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has laid out terms for ending the war with the United States and Israel in what analysts say is a possible sign of de-escalation from Tehran as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its 13th day on Thursday.

In a post on Wednesday on social site X, Pezeshkian said he had spoken to his counterparts in Russia and Pakistan, and that he had confirmed “Iran’s commitment to peace”.

“The only way to end this war – ignited by the Zionist regime & US – is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression,” Pezeshkian wrote.

This is a rare posture from Tehran, which has maintained a defiant stance and initially rejected any possibility of negotiations or a ceasefire when war broke out nearly two weeks ago.

Pezeshkian’s statement comes as pressure mounts on the US to halt what has become a very costly mission. Analysts say speculation from Washington that Iran would quickly submit after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were misguided.

Tehran is likely going to determine the end of this war, not the US or Israel, because of its ability to inflict economic pain broadly, they say.

Amid a military pummelling by the US and Israel, Iran has launched heavy retaliatory strikes at US assets and other critical infrastructure in Gulf countries, upsetting global supplies. It has also adopted what analysts call “asymmetric” tactics – such as disrupting the critical Strait of Hormuz and threatening US banking-linked entities – to inflict as much economic pain on the region and wider world as it can.

This is what we know about Pezeshkian’s stance and what the pressures are on both sides to draw the conflict to a close, quickly.

What has the war cost so far?

Economically, both sides have weaponised energy. Israel first targeted Iran’s oil facilities in Tehran on March 8, prompting an outcry from global health experts over the potential risk of air and water pollution.

Iran has, meanwhile, tightened its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route – the only route to open sea for oil producers in the Gulf – with its military promising on Wednesday that it has the capabilities to wage a long war that could “destroy” the world economy.

Attacks on ships in the strait, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas traffic normally passes, have effectively closed the route.

Oil prices rocketed above $100 per barrel late last week, up from around $65 before the war, with ordinary buyers feeling the increases at pumps in the US, Europe and parts of Africa.

On Wednesday, Iran upped the ante, saying it would not allow “a litre of oil” to pass through the strait and warned the world to expect a $200-per-barrel price tag.

“We don’t know how quickly it’ll revert back,” Freya Beamish, chief economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, told Al Jazeera. “We do think it’ll revert back to $80 in due course, but the ball is to some degree in Iran’s court,” she said, adding that because Iran needs oil revenue, the price hikes are expected to be time-limited.

The International Energy Agency agreed on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels from the emergency reserves of several member states but it is not yet clear what impact that will have, nor how quickly this quantity of oil can be released.

Tehran has also been accused of directly attacking oil facilities in neighbouring countries this week. Iraq shut all its oil port operations on Thursday after explosive-laden Iranian “drone” boats appeared to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member.

A drone was filmed striking Oman’s Salalah oil port on Wednesday, although Tehran has denied involvement.

What are Iranian officials saying about ending the war?

There has been conflicting messaging from the Iranian leadership.

Iran’s elite army unit and parallel armed force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), continues to show defiance, issuing threats and launching attacks on Israel and US military assets and infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries.

However, the political leadership has appeared more inclined towards diplomacy, analysts say. On Wednesday, President Pezeshkian said that ending the war would take the US and Israel recognising Iran’s rights, paying Iran reparations – although it’s unclear how much is being asked for – and providing strong guarantees that a future war will not be waged.

In a video recording last week, he also apologised to neighbouring countries for the strikes and promised that Iran would stop hitting its neighbours as long as they do not allow the US to launch attacks from their territory.

“I personally apologise to the neighbouring countries that were affected by Iran’s actions,” the president said, adding that Tehran was not looking for confrontations with its neighbours.

However, it is not known how much sway the political leadership has over the IRGC. Hours after the president’s apology last week, air defence sirens went off in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain, as strikes continued on the Gulf.

So, what is Iran’s actual position?

“Iran wants to go to the end to make sure that the United States and Israel never attack Iran again … so this has to be the final battle,” Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas explained.

Indeed, the IRGC sees this as an existential war, but the timing of Pezeshkian’s statement about ending the conflict also shows Tehran is pressured economically, politically and militarily, Zeidon Alkinani of Qatar’s Georgetown University told Al Jazeera.

“These differences and divisions [between IRGC and political leaders] always existed even prior to this war but we may notice it now more, given the fact that the IRGC believes that it has the right to take the front seat in leading this regional war, which is why a lot of the statements and positions are contradicting with the official ones from Pezeshkian,” he said.

The IRGC reports directly to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and not to the country’s political leadership. That council is led by Ali Larijani, a top politician and close aide to the late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who analysts describe as a “hardliner”.

In a post on X on Tuesday, Larijani responded to threats from Trump about attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, saying: “Iranian people do not fear your hollow threats; for those greater than you have failed to erase it … So beware lest you be the ones to vanish.”

The newly elected supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was once in the IRGC and was put forward by the unit as the next ayatollah after his father was killed on the first day of the war, analysts say. He is thus not expected to follow the reformist, diplomatic ideals of President Pezeshkian and other political leaders which his father managed to marry with the IRGC militarised stance, they say.

What do the US and Israel say about ending the war?

There have also been conflicting messages from the Trump administration and Israel regarding when the war mission on Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury, is likely to end.

Trump told US publication Axios on Wednesday that the war on Iran would end “soon” because there’s “practically nothing left to target”.

“Anytime I want it to end, it will end,” he added. He had said earlier on Monday that “we’re way ahead of our schedule” and that the US had achieved its goals, even as speculation mounts about a possible US ground mission.

On the other hand, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday that the war would go on “without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign”.

Analysts say Trump’s stance that the conflict will be quick reflects increasing pressure on his administration ahead of upcoming mid-term elections in November.

Trump’s advisers privately told him this week to find a quick end to the war and avoid political backlash, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal. That came as polls from Quinnipiac University and The Washington Post suggested that most Americans are opposed to the war in Iran.

In his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised to lower prices, and inflation had stabilised at 2.4 percent ahead of the war, according to government data released on Wednesday. Analysts speculate the conflict will likely push it back up.

The US spent more than $11.3bn in the first six days of the war, Pentagon officials told lawmakers in a classified briefing on Tuesday, Reuters reported this week – nearly $2bn a day.

The Washington-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), estimated that the war cost Washington $3.7bn in its first 100 hours alone, or nearly $900m a day, largely due to its expenditure on costly munitions.

“It’s quite ironic that [Trump] chose a war that would make affordability worse, not better,” Rebecca Christie, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, told Al Jazeera’s Counting the Cost.

“Every time the US loses even one object, air defence or a plane or something like that, that represents an awful lot of money that could have been used on some of these issues that have an impact on people’s day-to-day lives in the United States.”