IranIsrael

The Middle East has been one of the most sensitive regions, where one event of insecurity and chaos shakes the entire Middle Eastern dynamics and existing global order. The recent atrocious genocide of Palestinians since October 7, 2023, by Israelis has proved to be a major spark for escalated crises in the region. The recent Iran–Israel conflict ignited a fire from the underlying spark. Strategic attacks between both adversaries took place, which unveiled the volatile and porous security shield of the region concealing deepened internal weaknesses and discords. Israel attacked Iran by relying on its policy of “pre-emptive strike,” a sheer and illegal violation of international law. Iran retaliated while unable to hide the weaknesses and loopholes in its air force and defense system.

The Arab World’s normalization of relations with Israel, the anti-Western ideological perspective of Iran, the sponsorship of terrorism and proxy wars, the expanded nuclear arsenals of both competitors, and the Palestinian genocide by Israel have caused recent escalatory tensions between Iran and Israel. The war between both nuclear powers has escalated regional tensions and generated severe impacts: a vacuum for global powers to exercise influence in the Middle East, strict hatred against the USA and the West by Iran, regional instability and imbalance of power, an arms race, and alliance formation in the region.

The relationship between Iran and Israel can be divided into four phases, spotlighting a roller coaster of instability. The first phase starts from 1947 till 1953, in which bitter relations followed; Iran stood against the British and United Nations (UN) decision of inclusion of Israelis into Palestine (Iran was an anti-Israel state out of 13 states).Then comes the second phase, from 1953 till 1979, in which cordial ties were enjoyed during Iranian President Reza Shah Pahlavi’s regime (he was pro-Western). During the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the pro-Western regime of Reza Shah Pahlavi was ousted by Iran’s first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and post-Revolution Iran maintained bitter relations with Israel during its third phase till 1991.

However, further adversarial relations peaked after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 till contemporary times. The series of attacks between both states in the contemporary history of the world marked a possibility of a bigger conventional warfare that can take place between both states via the “Domino Effect.” The unprecedented support for surgical strikes, proxy wars, and attacks on ships, planes, military bases, and nuclear scientists was a common practice. Recent larger-scale tensions expanded when Israelis attacked on April 1, followed by Iranian retaliation on April 13, 2024, then full-scale attacks at the onset of June 2025, while utilizing their nuclear arsenals at a huge pace. Israel’s important port was attacked by Iran, along with the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who justified the attack on Gaza concealed under the right of self-defense. 

The ground for attack was prepared for a few reasons. Diverse factors escalated war at the conflict ladder, raising serious peace and security concerns and generating severe impacts. One of the major causes of the tensions is the religious factor. Iran being a Shi’ite majority state while Israel’s Zionism’s superiority claimed the conflict’s religious perspective. Iran stood with Palestinians, being a Muslim brother, and warned Israel of an unprecedented war if Israel did not back out, and it proved to be true. The recent Israeli attacks on Palestinians divided the Middle Eastern sections that claim to be united under the umbrella of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

This war took the shape of the Arab World vs. the Non-Arab World. The Arab World normalization of relations with Israel played a major role in heightening the conflict ladder. Israel wants to become a regional hegemon by balancing ties with the Arab States and maintaining superiority on all fronts. The religious factor has caused the formation of blocs and alliances by some states andneutrality by others. The Arab World and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) met failure in proposing a genuine solution for wars in the region. Iran-Israel tensions escalated from small tactics of attacks from both sides. The nuclear warfare conceals religious superiority and intolerance towards other segments of the region.

Ideological differences between parties paved the way for a warfare scenario. Israel being the right hand of the USA in the Middle East is not acceptable to Iran (a staunch anti-Western state) in the region.Post-revolutionary Iran (post-1979) is against western policies and their implementations in the Middle East by any Muslim state. Even Pakistan’s Chief Marshall General Asif Muneer’s visit to the USA on June 14, on the 250th anniversary of the USA military, during regional tensions made Iran uncomfortable. The cover page of the Iranian newspaper “The Tehran Times” raised questions about why Pakistan went to the USA amid tensions in the Muslim world. Iran considers the backing power of Israel, the USA, a major reason for regional instability.

Iran challenges the USA’s interference in the region by confronting Israel. The USA provided military and economic aid to Israel in wars in the Middle East. In the case of Palestine, the Conflictual Theory of Karl Marx implies in this situation that the actions of one state generate the consequences, and the other (weaker) states bear the brunt of those consequences. Iran was against Saudi-led westernization structured on USA models. The USA and Israel mutually adopted a policy to neutralize Iran for being a regional hegemon. A step towards it was initiated by Israel.

Iran has an over-reliance on three elements.

·       Drones (struck down by the USA, UK, Israel, and Jordan). Jordan is justifying it by saying that I’ll not allow violation of my airspace.

· Missiles (Ballistic and Hypersonic). Around 80 ballistic missiles were used, not stopped by the USA and others, and reached Israel within 12 minutes. Hypersonic missiles comprise more speed.

·       Proxies in region.

The sponsorship of terrorism and proxies by both Iran and Israel in the Middle East is also one of the major reasons for advanced nuclear tensions between both parties, as they cost the peace of the region in the long run. One reason Netanyahu is quoting again and again is that Iran is an existential nuclear threat for Israel, and he is emphasizing diminishing its proxies. Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Mehdi Malaysia in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Assad’s regime in Syria are all backed by Iran. These groups are alleged to have carried out terrorist activities in the Middle East. Israel claims to stand against them, but the reality check is different.

Israeli atrocities abstained Hamas from bearing tortures and eventually stood on October 7, 2023, by attacking Southern Israel on Yom Kippur Day. The terrorist acts and proxy wars destabilized the region in worst-case scenarios. The militant groups fought for their regional autonomy and basic independence in the states, which were undermined by stakeholders. The militant groups are majorly supported by Iran in their rights for freedom and regional autonomy rather than external influences and perpetual dependency on the global North and West. Houthis in Yemen are at a distance from Iran, and for attacks, Iran has to go through the Red Sea, as their access is strenuous. They stood in solidarity with Palestinians by blocking oil and trade ships of the USA, the UK, and Israel. These states then retaliated and caused much devastation to them by breaking the back of Iran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) submitted a report in May 2025 that Iran has grossly violated enrichment capacities and expanded its nuclear arsenals. The Israeli nuclear arsenal, backed by the USA and Western alliances, raised the regional imbalance of power and security dilemma but was accepted by the international community.Contrarily, the Iranian Nuclear Program, developed on its own, seems a threat in the region. The nuclear programs, uranium enrichment, expansion of weaponry, development of missiles (cruise and ballistic), and latest conventional warfare techniques have raised serious concerns undermining regional peace. The economic and nuclear sanctions on Iran crippled its societal structure, yet its nuclear standoff is unmatchable. The expansion of nuclear arsenals and weaponry has led to an arms race, with the latest technological advancements having raised serious concerns. Iran has weapons that cannot be detected by the missile defense systems of Israel.

Palestinian genocide by Israel is one of the major reasons behind Iran-Israel tensions. Massive ethnic cleansing of innocent Palestinians has raised serious human rights concerns. Iran has condemned the Arab World for staying silent and not assisting Palestinian liberation via united efforts. They have claimed to retaliate with full force if Israel does not back off from Palestinian genocide. Massive brutal assassinations of Palestinians have taken place. More than 50,000 children have been killed, with millions of deaths of civilians and injuries. In the case of Iran, more than 16 renowned nuclear scientists, with few other state officials, have been killed by Israeli attacks in the past ten days. If this crisis prevails, it will be difficult to mitigate larger regional warfare. Iran sided with Palestine rather than the tame Arab world. They demand immediate genuine solutions;Global Civil Society is already predicting the way towards World War III. Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, sending a clear message that it will not back down if Israel does not stop regional ethnic cleansing in the name of self-defense.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in 2015, from which the USA administration quit under President Trump’s administration in 2017. Trump expanded the process of negotiations on multiple fronts (nuclear enrichment, proxy wars) with Iran after becoming president again in 2024. Oman played a major role in it. The sixth round of talks was ongoing when strikes between both parties took place. Israel was against any kind of negotiations with Iran. Israel has been convincing the Global North and West to attack Iran on the basis of several reasons (speeches), as its fear of unprecedented threats from Iran isn’t hidden. After its October 2023 attacks on Gaza, upon questioning by the journalist about what the common threat of Israel is, in an interview with CNN, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Iran, Iran, Iran.” Pivotal stance on attacking Hamas was based on ceasing Iranian support and expansion in the region via Hamas. JCPOA negotiations failed in genuine terms and halted, as they were not acceptable to Israel, and do not seem possible in the future.

Netanyahu is facing opposition on multiple fronts, internally due to a vote of no-confidence against himself in Knesset. In order to foil that move, he successfully created a situation with Iran. Due to genocide and war crimes in Gaza, European allies step back in large numbers. The USA and European populace went to protests for Muslim victims for the first time in contemporary history. A wicked hard image of Netanyahu was projected globally; these steps seemed to make it better to erode it by diverting attention towards Iran.

Israel implemented an official policy of “preemptive strikes” against all proxies. This concept matured in the Bush era, mainly in 2003-04. Practically, it was utilized by both adversaries in strikes against each other, yet Israel got its benefits in the recent escalation. The attacks were unprecedented. No official statement was given by Israel, and certain media reports say that missile strikes were carried out and F-35 jet fighters were used. Special forces of Israel have conducted operations in Iran, including attacks in Tehran, at nuclear facilities, and at military bases, targeting journals, scientists, the army chief, military commanders, and around 100 civilians, claiming several precious and innocent lives.

Nuclear facilities of states are mostly underground, and Iran’s are based in Isfahan, Natanz, Fordow, and Arak. The depth of underground facilities is generally 60-80 meters deep underground. Simple missiles are not enough to destroy these, but Bunker Buster bombs are required, which are owned by the USA but lacked by Israel. According to The Security Brief Show (BBC News), nuclear sites in Isfahan were attacked by sea-based USA warships called TAM, or Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, that travels subsonically and can go very deep and is really hard to be detected by radar. The dismantling of the nuclear installations is still doubtful.

However, apart from bases, Iran claimed to have breached Israel’s sophisticated missile defense systems, which are among the most advanced in the world, by hitting a military intelligence center and an operations planning center for the Mossad spy agency. Iranian missiles managed to pierce through the Israeli Air Defense System by exhausting interceptor missiles and cruise and hypersonic missiles, according to an Al-Jazeera report.

Despite all these, the internal weaknesses of the Iranian intelligence system and defense capabilities to strike down attacks by Israel were all unveiled and made Israel more confident. The striking back capabilities of Iran encompassed the Air Force, which was very weak due to protracted sanctions via the international community. It has outdated jets, like the MiG-29. F-14 jet fighters are USA-based. The Israeli intelligence agency Mossad has deep penetration in Iran’s intelligence and military system. The attacks were carried out on the residences of the army chief, the Pasdaran-e-Islam chief, scientists, journals, and many others. The operation by commandos proved to be another bigger penetration of Israel (comprising intelligence and military). Reports by the BBC are claiming that Iran will go to Beijing for advanced fighter jets.

This war has major impacts on China, due to its growing imports and reliance on Middle Eastern hydrocarbons, especially being a major importer of Iran’s hydrocarbons. Absence of safety, hiked prices of energy resources, and escalated insecurity will devastate China in the economic sector via deteriorating trade and investments carried out by China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and BRICS+. Unlikely, USA entanglement in regional wars has diverted her attention from the Taiwan Strait (emerging Silicon and technological warfare) and the South China Sea, a blessing in disguise for China to reclaim irredentism. The USA has more than 40,000 troops in the Persian Gulf.

The more the attention of the USA is on the Middle East, the less the attention is on China and Russia.

Trump projected himself (self-proclaimed) as a peacemaker—to avoid a confrontation policy with Iran. Iran was not in favor of war either (with the USA and Israel directly) and carried out a policy of utilizing the nuclear enrichment as a bargaining chip with the USA for the removal of sanctions, knowing its defense capacities and loopholes. Trump is projecting its peace-making image via regime change in Syria with more democratic and peaceful political agendas concealing regional influence, genocide in Gaza despite ceasefire truces, launching air and naval strikes on Houthis in Yemen in “Operation Rough Rider” in the name of promoting peace, and giving minute relief to so-called militant groups in the region. According to a recent report on the Red Sea crisis, Israel is urging Trump to resume strikes on Houthis in Yemen.

In the case of Pakistan, the state’s second strike capability is strong, as it remained victorious in recent military strikes with India in post-Pahalgam aggression. India’s ideological isolationist nationalism and political pressure on Prime Minister Modi are shaping the current aggressive behavior of the world’s largest democracy. Its involvement in baking the proxies, extremists, and terrorist activities in neighborhoods and within Pakistan are expected to surge in Afghanistan, ex-FATA,and the Balochistan regions.

A ceasefire brokered by the USA on June 24, 2025, curbed both parties from engaging in further military and nuclear strikes, underlying diplomatic objectives. Iran denounces the claim of the USA. It has not ended fully; episodes still exist on political and diplomatic grounds, as Israel is not accepting negotiations with Iran at any cost. The Israeli Defense Minister said that we will not attack Iran, yet citizens should be prepared for counterattacks. They have to ensure their protection via the Underground Safety System of Israel. In an interview addressing the conflict, the Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf highlighted that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, played a pivotal role in orchestrating decisive strikes of Iran, which urged the USA and Israel to seek a ceasefire after the 12-day war.

Certain causes have generated massive effects, which need immediate and comprehensive solutions in order to de-escalate the deep Iran-Israeli tensions and other wars in the Middle East. Religious differences have to be tolerated and respected until they cross the threshold for massive outrages. Ideological differences have led the region to deepened grievances that need much time for their resolution. Iran is propagating an anti-westernization agenda, while Israel is working on Ideological Expansionist Nationalism (IEN) and Political Separatist Nationalism (PSN). All these have done nothing good in the regional affairs. Global powers take this opportunity to meddle in the regional affairs by being opportunists and want to take full advantage of the absence of an adversary. China filled the vacuum created by the USA in ameliorating the Iran-Saudi rivalry. 

To encounter terrorist activities and proxy wars, comprehensive strategic frameworks and effective governance are the ultimate solutions, developed by proper democratic means practiced within the state. Arms control should be ensured by both states by acting with rationality and maturity. The rational actor model best explains the cost and benefit analysis taken before going to war. In today’s world of nuclear warfare, there will be no winners, but devastations will take place at huge levels. The two-state solution will resolve the Palestinian ethnic cleansing. The Muslim world has to unite for brutally suppressed Palestinians and all other factions of the region. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) remained slow, as it did not conduct any remarkable session in the past few months. Iran spoke in the OIC session of 2023 for Palestinians. In the case of Iran-Israeli tensions, nothing profound seemed to happen, except the USA called for a ceasefire and mediation.

In the end, the escalated tensions between Iran and Israel generated serious repercussions for regional peace, stability, and security. If this aggression were not controlled (it seemed to be controlled as a ceasefire was brokered by the USA), it would lead towards another great World War III as small bilateral wars advance the ‘domino effect’ in generating large-scale warfare. This issue generated after the Israeli genocide of Palestine, the change of regime in Syria after a long civil war, and Israeli attacks on Lebanon to eliminate Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

The religious, ideological, terrorist, nuclear, and Palestinian factors paved the way for Iran-Israel tensions that are impacting the region at a larger scale. The formation of blocs, the failure of the Muslim world to stand in solidarity with oppressed states in the Middle East, massive terrorist attacks, the nuclear arms race, and the Palestinian blockade all demand immediate solutions. A comprehensive strategic plan for regional stability by the Muslim world is in dire need of time. As the Middle East is the most volatile region with respect to stability and security in the region. Conclusively, instead of sporadic efforts, a concerted plan is required by international stakeholders for the maintenance of the dignity and sanctity of international law, peace, and humanity.

VATICAN CITY — Pope Leo XIV urged the warring sides in the Israel-Iran war to “reject the logic of bullying and revenge” and choose a path of dialogue and diplomacy to reach peace as he expressed solidarity with all Christians in the Middle East.

Speaking at his weekly Wednesday general audience, the American pope said he was following “with attention and hope” recent developments in the war. He cited the biblical exhortation: “A nation shall not raise the sword against another nation.”

A ceasefire is holding in the 12-day Iran-Israel conflict, which involved Israel targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites and the U.S. intervening by dropping bunker-buster bombs on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful.

“Let us listen to this voice that comes from on High,” Leo said. “Heal the lacerations caused by the bloody actions of recent days, reject all logic of bullying and revenge, and resolutely take the path of dialogue, diplomacy and peace.”

The Chicago-born Leo also expressed solidarity with the victims of Sunday’s attack on a Greek Orthodox church in Damascus, Syria, and urged the international community to keep supporting Syrian reconciliation. Syria’s Interior Ministry has said a sleeper cell belonging to the Islamic State group was behind the attack at the Church of the Holy Cross, which killed at least 25 people.

“To the Christians in the Middle East, I am near you. All the church is close to you,” he said. “This tragic event is a reminder of the profound fragility that still marks Syria after years of conflict and instability, and therefore it is crucial that the international community doesn’t look away from this country, but continues to offer it support through gestures of solidarity and with a renewed commitment to peace and reconciliation.”

Oil prices hit a five-month high over the weekend after the United States struck Iran’s nuclear facilities. Tehran retaliated with an attack on the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, keeping global energy markets on edge.

But oil prices dropped sharply on Tuesday after it appeared that Iran was holding off further attacks for now, including avoiding closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint in global trade.

Brent Crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, has tumbled more than 5.6 percent so far in the trading day and is currently trading at around $66 a barrel.

Strait of Hormuz closure still a concern

One of Iran’s most significant potential retaliatory economic measures would be to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

The narrow waterway is a key transit route for 20 percent of the world’s oil supply, as well as a broader trade corridor between Europe and Asia.

While Iran’s parliament has backed a proposal to close the strait, the final decision lies with the country’s Supreme National Security Council.

Iran has made similar threats in the past, including in 2018 during US President Donald Trump’s first term, after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal brokered under former President Barack Obama.

A closure could involve laying sea mines across the strait – which at its narrowest point is just 33 kilometres (21 miles) wide – and even attack or capture vessels. As recently as March, the Revolutionary Guard seized ships it accused of smuggling diesel. Similar tactics were used during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.

Shutting the Strait would send a jolt through global markets, though analysts believe there is enough spare capacity to blunt the immediate impact. Still, the risk of further volatility remains high, mirroring the energy market disruptions seen in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

HSBC analysts say that crude oil prices could top $80 a barrel if the Strait is closed. Goldman Sachs forecasts that it could be $110.

But the strike on the US airbase in Qatar actually calmed global markets because it suggested that economic retaliation is not at the forefront of Tehran’s arsenal.

“If Iran were serious about retaliation, it would sink an oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. The fact that it isn’t doing that means it’s bending the knee,” Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in a post on the social media platform X.

Moment of flux

Outside of the conflict, the oil market was already in a moment of flux. In May, OPEC agreed to increase production by as much as 411,000 barrels per day for the month of July, part of a move to unwind voluntary output cuts after demand crashed during the COVID pandemic.

There are other ways to mitigate the impact of a supply shortage.

Spare production capacity from OPEC+, primarily in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could quickly add about 2.5 million barrels per day to the market, with as much as five million available over the longer term, according to analysis from Third Bridge Capital.

That could buy time if there is a hit on global oil supplies before it ultimately impacts consumers at the gas pump.

Iran produces 4 percent of the global oil supply, most of which goes to China due to existing global sanctions on Iranian oil.

“It’s hard to see in the current environment how Iran would push more barrels into the market since a lot of their supply ends up going to China,” Peter McNally, global head of Sector Analysts and global sector lead at Third Bridge Capital, told Al Jazeera.

China purchases nearly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, totalling about 1.6 million barrels per day. China is already grappling with US tariffs and any increase in energy prices will hurt its economy, says Abigail Hall Blanco, professor of economics at the University of Tampa.

“Oil markets are incredibly interconnected. And so if the price of oil globally shoots up as a result of a closure or a restriction of oil tankers passing through the strait, then certainly you would see those impacts on the US and other markets as well,” Hall Blanco told Al Jazeera.

Earlier this morning, Trump said that China can continue to buy Iranian oil.

Meanwhile, regional producers are bracing for a fallout. Iraq’s state-run Basra Oil Company has begun evacuating foreign staff, fearing Iranian retaliation against US forces stationed in the area.

Western firms are also taking precautions. BP, which partners with Iraq’s Basra operation in the massive Rumaila oil field – averaging 3.32 million barrels per day – has reduced its on-site personnel. However, the company says output will not be affected. As of 3pm in New York (19:00 GMT), BP’s stock is down by 1.4 percent.

Outside OPEC+, producers like Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the US could increase output to help fill any supply gap. But with the exception of the US and Canada, the other countries take longer to make those moves, experts said.

“The difference with everyone except the US is just its bit longer lead time. There’s less of an instantaneous response to higher prices. The growth is going to continue. If there is an outage, by way of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, the quickest [way] to add production is either in Saudi Arabia, the UAE or the US,” McNally said. “But like longer term, the non-OPEC supply will continue to meet most of the demand growth going forward.”

Over the past decade, non-OPEC countries have significantly ramped up production, a trend that’s expected to continue. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in December (PDF) that 90 percent of oil production growth this year will come from non-OPEC sources.

The US also has a strategic petroleum reserve at its disposal that currently holds 402.5 million barrels. The reserve is intended to be tapped into in moments of a dip in production due to global emergencies.

While the US does produce more oil than any other country in the world, at current levels, it will cost $20bn and several years to refill the strategic reserve.

A political risk for Trump

On Monday, Trump on Truth Social said in all-caps, “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN, I’M WATCHING.”

Trump campaigned on cutting prices for everyday goods. But his volatile trade policies and tariffs have pushed prices upward. In the most recent consumer price index report, a key metric the central bank uses to measure the rate of inflation, food prices are up 2.9 percent compared to this time last year.

But oil has remained a key strength for the Trump administration, with prices dropping, including a 12 percent decline in gas prices from this time last year.

But that could change very quickly as prices fluctuate.

“It’s just that it’s a fluid situation,” McNally said.

A New Chapter in Global Escalation

Israel’s attack on the heart of Iran in June 2025 was not just the latest episode in the long history of the Middle East conflict. It was a loud signal that great power rivalry is now transforming into an open struggle, with Asia and the Global South as the main arenas of interest. For China, which has always maintained a balance between Iran and Israel, this war is a real test of its diplomatic strategy and national interests.

China: From Balancing to Taking Sides?

China has historically pursued a policy of “dual engagement” in the Middle East—strengthening economic ties with Israel while building a strategic partnership with Iran, especially in the areas of energy and security. However, the 2025 war revealed a significant shift in Beijing’s attitude. Just a day after the Israeli attack, China’s Ambassador to the UN, Fu Cong, openly called Israel’s actions a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, while urging an end to Israel’s “military adventurism.” This strong statement was reinforced by President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who reiterated their support for Iran’s right to self-defense and rejected further US military involvement.

This policy is not just rhetoric. China is a major buyer of Iranian oil, with more than 80% of Iran’s oil exports going to China—even amid Western sanctions. The 25-year partnership signed in 2021 deepens energy dependence and infrastructure investment, making Iran a key pillar of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. This relationship, economically and geopolitically, positions China as the main defender of Iran’s interests in global forums.

However, this position carries significant risks. China-Israel relations, which previously flourished in the technology and infrastructure sectors, are now experiencing serious rifts. Israel and its Western allies see China’s stance as a bias that undermines trust and narrows the space for dialogue. Iran, on the other hand, views China as an important strategic partner in the face of Western pressure, although it remains aware of the limits of Beijing’s commitment to direct military involvement.

Immediate Impact on Asia and the Global South: Energy, Economics, and Uncertainty

The domino effects of the conflict were immediately felt in Asia and the Global South. The surge in world oil prices—topping $75 per barrel—triggered inflation, increased the fiscal burden on energy-importing countries, and depressed people’s purchasing power. Indonesia, India, and ASEAN countries immediately evacuated residents from conflict zones, strengthened energy reserves, and prepared for economic contingency scenarios.

Asia’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy has now become a strategic vulnerability that cannot be ignored. Any threat to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for one-third of the world’s oil supply, immediately shakes markets and creates investment uncertainty. For countries in the Global South, energy price volatility means the risk of slowing growth, weakening currencies, and rising living costs—issues that exacerbate inequality and increase the potential for domestic political instability.

China as Mediator: Ambitions, Challenges, and Realities

China is seeking to capitalize on this momentum to assert itself as a global mediator. Beijing has actively offered itself as a mediator, pushed for a ceasefire, and called for multilateral dialogue in forums such as the UN and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In its official narrative and state media editorials, China has emphasized the importance of a political solution, respect for sovereignty, and rejection of Western-style “unilateral intervention.”

However, the effectiveness of China’s mediation role faces real limitations. China’s influence over Israel is very limited, given Tel Aviv’s closeness to Washington and skepticism of Beijing’s neutrality. On the other hand, China’s over-involvement risks provoking a confrontation with the United States, which remains the dominant player in the Middle East. The reality on the ground shows that while China has been able to construct a narrative as a new counterbalance, its ability to truly change the dynamics of the conflict is still constrained by its limited military and political leverage.

Strategic Implications: Global Polarization and the Future of Asia

The Iran-Israel conflict deepens global polarization between Israel’s pro-Israel bloc (the US and its Western allies) and Iran’s pro-Iran bloc (China, Russia, and much of the Global South). Asian and Global South countries are now faced with a strategic dilemma: balancing relations with the two great powers without getting caught up in a rivalry that could undermine regional stability.

For China, this conflict is a test of its ambition to become a leader of the Global South and a counterweight to Western dominance. Beijing’s firm stance in defending the principle of sovereignty and rejecting military intervention is a strong message to developing countries that have long felt marginalized in the global order. However, the challenge ahead is how to transform this diplomatic capital into real influence in resolving conflicts and building inclusive collective security mechanisms.

Conclusion: Asia and the Global South as Deciders of the Future

The Iran-Israel conflict and China’s response mark a new chapter in world geopolitics. Asia and the Global South are no longer spectators, but rather determiners of the future of the global order. By strengthening solidarity, policy innovation, and collective diplomacy, developing countries can take a greater role in maintaining world peace and prosperity. The challenges are great, but the opportunities to build a more inclusive and equitable world order are now wide open—and China, along with Asia and the Global South, is at the center of that change.

Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s leader is an “easy target,” sending jitters through risk markets such as cryptocurrencies on Tuesday.

“We don’t want missiles shot at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” He added. Trump also called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”

The market has reacted negatively to the news. Bitcoin is down 1.7% at $105,000, Ethereum is down 2.2% at $2,500, and the total cryptocurrency market cap has dropped 1.3%. Some altcoins, such as Virtuals Protocol, IP, and Pudgy Penguins, are down over 7%.

However, seasoned investors are well aware that dips caused by geopolitical escalations often recover quickly. Put differently, the current low prices could mark a lucrative trading opportunity for investors. But what are the best coins to buy on the dip?

Snorter

That’s why the crypto trader bot sector is growing fast – and it’s why Snorter might be the best coin to buy on the dip. It’s a powerful Telegram-based trading bot that offers automated token sniping, copy trading, dynamic stop-losses, and rug-pull detection.

It supports Solana, Ethereum, BSC, Base, and Polygon, so you won’t miss an opportunity no matter where it launches.

The project is undergoing a presale and has raised $1 million in its opening three weeks.

This early success suggests genuine market interest, which could ultimately lead to long-term gains. Visit Snorter.

Bitcoin Hyper

Bitcoin Hyper is the new Bitcoin layer 2 blockchain built using the Solana Virtual Machine. Bitcoin’s security and Solana’s speed and programmability – that’s Bitcoin Hyper.

One of the most popular crypto sectors is meme coins, but Bitcoin’s meme coin ecosystem is relatively thin, especially considering its $2 trillion market cap. Bitcoin Hyper offers smart contract functionality and a seamless developer environment – alongside low fees and high speeds – hoping to cultivate a new meme coin ecosystem on Bitcoin.

The project also features a staking mechanism, which currently offers a 554% APY. However, this will decrease as the staking pool grows.

Bitcoin Hyper is also undergoing a presale and has raised $1.3 million so far.

With a strong use case, clear market interest, and lucrative staking rewards, it’d be no surprise if $HYPER skyrockets after hitting exchanges. Visit Bitcoin Hyper.

Fartcoin

Fartcoin is a Solana-based meme coin that launched on Pump.fun in Q4 of 2024 and quickly went viral. It peaked in January 2025, and then, after a deep selloff in line with the market-wide crash, it has risen once again.

It now trades at $1.10 with a $1.1 billion market capitalization and a $245 million 24-hour trading volume.

The project soared approximately 7x from its March lows to its local peak in April, massively outpacing most other meme coins.

Since its inception, Fartcoin has consistently outpaced the market average when conditions are bullish. So with prices currently on a dip, this could prove an opportune time to buy.

AB

AB is in an interesting spot. While most cryptocurrencies have dipped this week, AB is up 37%.

The project focuses on blockchain interoperability. It enables users to transfer assets between Ethereum, Solana, and other networks using the AB Connect protocol, and it also features a sidechain for the Internet of Things (IoT) and a main network for decentralized applications.

Like Bitcoin Hyper, its focus on cross-chain interoperability helps it stand out, and this has even caught the eye of Binance.

On June 7, AB was listed on Binance Alpha, a Binance Wallet feature that enables easy buying. This created a liquidity boon for AB, but the real benefit may still be to come. That’s because Binance says that projects listed on Binance Alpha are shortlisted to receive a listing on the main Binance exchange.

 

Best Wallet Token

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Published on
18/06/2025 – 8:06 GMT+2

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Asian shares were mixed and oil prices remained high on Wednesday as investors closely tracked the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

US benchmark crude oil was down around 0.43% at $74.52 per barrel in the afternoon in Asia — or the morning in Europe. Brent crude, the international standard, slipped around 0.43% at $76.12, although both WTI and Brent remain historically high on the month.

Crude prices rose more than 4% on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump left a Group of Seven summit in Canada early and warned that people in Iran’s capital should evacuate immediately.

Within about eight hours, Trump went from suggesting a nuclear deal with Iran remained “achievable” to urging Tehran’s 9.5 million residents to flee for their lives. Iran and Israel continued to exchange air strikes on Wednesday.

The fighting has driven prices for crude oil and gasoline higher because Iran is a major oil exporter and it sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s crude passes. Past conflicts in the area have caused spikes in oil prices, though they’ve historically proven brief after showing that they did not disrupt the flow of oil.

Japan, meanwhile, reported that its exports fell in May as the auto industry was hit by Trump’s higher tariffs, with exports to the US falling more than 11%. But Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 jumped 0.78% to 38,837.48.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.17% to 23,698.65 while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3% to 3,388.77.

The Kospi in Seoul gained 0.54% to 2,966.20 while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.1% to 8,533.10.

On Tuesday, US stocks slumped under the weight of higher oil prices and weaker than expected retail sales in May.

Trump raised the temperature on Israel’s fight with Iran by calling for “Unconditional surrender!” on his social media platform and saying, “We are not going to” kill Iran’s leader, “at least for now”.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 5,982.72 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.7% to 42,215.80. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.9% to 19,521.09.

On early Wednesday morning in the US, S&P futures rose 0.11% to 5,991.50, Dow Jones futures increased less than 1% to 42,245.00, while Nasdaq futures advanced by 0.13% to 21,759.00.

The markets will be looking to the Federal Reserve as it makes a decision on its interest rates today. The nearly unanimous expectation among traders and economists is that the Fed will make no move.

In currency trading early Wednesday, the US dollar fell 0.2% to 144.94 Japanese yen. The euro edged 0.18% higher, to $1.1502.

Islamabad, Pakistan – In January 2024, Pakistan and Iran fired missiles into each other’s territory in a brief military escalation between the neighbours.

Yet 17 months later, after Israel attacked Iran with strikes on the latter’s nuclear facilities, and assassinated multiple Iranian generals and nuclear scientists, Pakistan was quick to condemn the Israeli action.

Islamabad described the Israeli strikes as violations of Iran’s territorial sovereignty and labelled them “blatant provocations”.

“The international community and the United Nations bear responsibility to uphold international law, stop this aggression immediately and hold the aggressor accountable for its actions,” Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on June 13.

As Israeli attacks on Iran, and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, enter their sixth day, the deepening conflict is sparking fears in Islamabad, say analysts, rooted in its complex ties with Tehran and the even greater unease at the prospect of the Israeli military’s aerial influence extending close to the Pakistani border.

The human toll from the spiralling Israel-Iran conflict is growing. Israel’s attacks on Iran have already led to more than 220 deaths, with more than a thousand people injured. In retaliation, Iran has launched hundreds of missiles into Israeli territory, resulting in more than 20 deaths and extensive property damage.

While Pakistan, which shares a 905km (562-mile) border with Iran via its southwestern province of Balochistan, has voiced staunch support for Tehran, it has also closed five border crossings in Balochistan from June 15.

More than 500 Pakistani nationals, mainly pilgrims and students, have returned from Iran in recent days.

“On Monday, we had 45 students who were pursuing degrees in various Iranian institutions return to Pakistan. Almost 500 pilgrims also came back via the Taftan border crossing,” the assistant commissioner for Taftan, Naeem Ahmed, told Al Jazeera.

Taftan is a border town neighbouring Iran, situated in the Chaghi district in Balochistan, which is famous for its hills where Pakistan conducted its nuclear tests in 1998, as well as the Reko Diq and Saindak mines known for their gold and copper deposits.

At the heart of the decision to try to effectively seal the border is Pakistan’s worry about security in Balochistan, which, in turn, is influenced by its ties with Iran, say experts.

A complex history

Pakistan and Iran have both accused each other of harbouring armed groups responsible for cross-border attacks on their territories.

The most recent flare-up occurred in January 2024, when Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Balochistan province, claiming to target the separatist group Jaish al-Adl.

Pakistan retaliated within 24 hours, striking what it said were hideouts of Baloch separatists inside Iranian territory.

The neighbours patched up after that brief escalation, and during Pakistan’s brief military conflict with India in May, Iran studiously avoided taking sides.

On Monday, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ishaq Dar addressed Parliament, emphasising how Pakistan had been speaking with Iran and suggesting that Islamabad was willing to play a diplomatic role to help broker an end to the military hostilities between Iran and Israel.

“Iran’s foreign minister [Abbas Araghchi] told me that if Israel does not carry out another attack, they are prepared to return to the negotiating table,” Dar said. “We have conveyed this message to other countries, that there is still time to stop Israel and bring Iran back to talks.”.

Minister of State for Interior Talal Chaudhry told Al Jazeera that other nations needed to do more to push for a ceasefire.

“We believe we are playing our role, but the world must also do its duty. Syria, Libya, Iraq – wars devastated them. It even led to the rise of ISIS [ISIL]. We hope this is not repeated,” he added.

Fahd Humayun, assistant professor of political science at Tufts University and a visiting research scholar at Stanford, said that any Pakistani bid to diplomatically push for peace would be helped by the fact that the administration of President Donald Trump in the United States is also, officially at least, arguing for negotiations rather than war.

But Umer Karim, a Middle East researcher at the University of Birmingham, suggested that for all the public rhetoric, Pakistan would be cautious about enmeshing itself too deeply in the conflict at a time when it is trying to rebuild bridges with the US, Israel’s closest ally.

“I doubt Pakistan has the capacity or the will to mediate in this conflict, but it definitely wants it to wind down as soon as possible,” he said.

Balochistan and security concerns

Pakistan’s greatest concern, according to observers, is the potential fallout in Balochistan, a resource-rich but restive province. Rich in oil, gas, coal, gold and copper, Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest province by area but smallest by population, home to about 15 million people.

Since 1947, Balochistan has experienced at least five rebellion movements, the latest beginning in the early 2000s. Rebel groups have demanded a greater share of local resources or outright independence, prompting decades of military crackdowns.

The province also hosts the strategic Gwadar port, central to the $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), linking western China to the Arabian Sea.

Baloch nationalists accuse the state of exploiting resources while neglecting local development, heightening secessionist and separatist sentiments. Baloch secessionist groups on both sides of the border, particularly the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLA), have been waging a rebellion in Pakistan to seek independence.

“There is a major concern within Pakistan that in case the war escalates, members of armed groups such as BLA and BLF, many of whom live in Iran’s border areas, might try and seek protection inside Pakistan by crossing the very porous boundaries shared by the two countries,” Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told Al Jazeera.

“Thus, Pakistan had to shut down the crossing in an attempt to control the influx. It remains to be seen whether they can successfully do that, but at least this is their objective.”

Worries about an Afghanistan redux

Since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, waves of Afghan refugees have sought shelter in Pakistan. The latest mass entry occurred after the Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021. At their peak, there were close to 4 million Afghans living in the country.

In 2023, however, Pakistan launched a campaign to send the refugees back to Afghanistan. According to government estimates, close to a million of them have been expelled so far. Pakistan has cited rising incidents of armed violence in the country, which it blames on groups that it says find shelter in Afghanistan, as a key justification for its decision. The Taliban reject the suggestion that they allow anti-Pakistan armed groups sanctuary on Afghan territory.

Basit said Pakistan would likely want to avoid any repeat of what happened with Afghan refugees.

“With such a long border [with Iran], and a history of deep connection between people of both sides, it is not out of realm of possibility that it was this factor which factored in Pakistan’s decision to close the border,” he added.

Fears of Israeli aerial superiority

Baloch armed groups and the prospect of a refugee influx are not the only concerns likely worrying Pakistan, say experts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that his air force has control over Tehran’s skies. And while both Israel and Iran continue to strike each other’s territory, Pakistan, which does not recognise Israel and views it as a sworn enemy, will not want Israeli influence over the Iranian airspace to grow and creep towards the Iran-Pakistan border.

“Pakistan is also averse to Israel achieving complete air superiority and control of Iranian airspace, as it would upend the current security status quo on Pakistan’s western flank,” Karim, the University of Birmingham scholar, told Al Jazeera.

Break from the past

Security analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, based in Islamabad, noted that Pakistan has historically sided with the US in regional wars, including in Afghanistan, but may hesitate this time.

A majority Sunni nation, Pakistan still boasts a significant Shia population – more than 15 percent of its population of 250 million.

“Pakistan has already dealt with sectarian issues, and openly supporting military action against [Shia-majority] Iran could spark serious blowback,” he said.