Internet

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s economic outlook appears increasingly grim more than three weeks after the start of what became one of the most comprehensive and prolonged state-imposed internet blackouts in history, impacting a population of more than 90 million people.

Iranian authorities abruptly cut off all communications across the country on the night of January 8, at the height of nationwide protests that the United Nations and international human rights organisations say were suppressed with the use of deadly force.

Most of Iran’s internet bandwidth, local and international phone calls and SMS text messages have been restored over recent days. But most of the country is still unable to freely connect to the global internet amid heavy filtering by the state.

The increased bandwidth allows more people to circumvent state restrictions using a variety of proxies and virtual private networks (VPNs), but solutions are often costly and temporary.

Last week, Information and Communications Technology Minister Sattar Hashemi told reporters his ministry estimates that the Iranian economy suffered at least 50 trillion rials (about $33m at the current exchange rate) in damages on a daily basis during the blackout.

But the minister admitted that the true toll is likely much higher, and said that other ministers and economic officials have privately offered heftier estimates that he did not expand upon.

‘Can’t do anything without the internet’

The government of President Masoud Pezeshkian has said the decision to fully block connectivity was taken outside of its control by the Supreme National Security Council.

Pezeshkian, who had made scaling back internet filtering a main campaign promise, has refrained from talking about Iran’s largest internet blackout to date, instead focusing on economic reforms and cash subsidies.

The administration has promised to offer online businesses financial support, but the losses have already been sudden, acute, and too heavy to bear for many.

Simin Siami, a travel agent working in Tehran, told Al Jazeera that her company lost most of its income and had to lay off a number of employees.

“Most international flights were cancelled, and there was no way to purchase tickets or compare existing flights,” she said, adding that her company was also unable to book hotels for customers, who were initially even unable to renew their passports.

“Unfortunately, that limited our services to selling tickets for local flights and booking local hotels, and cancelled all our previous international tickets and bookings.”

Saeed Mirzaei, who works at an immigration agency in the capital, said 46 employees at his company had to go on mandatory leave for weeks amid the shutdown.

He told Al Jazeera that they suddenly lost all contact with foreign counterparts, were unable to get updated information from embassies, and missed deadlines to apply for universities on behalf of their customers wishing to leave a heavily sanctioned Iran for better opportunities.

“We can’t do anything without the internet because our work deals directly with it,” Mirzaei said.

National internet a ‘bitter joke’

During the blackout, Iran’s theocratic establishment even struggled to sustain basic services using the so-called National Information Network, a limited nationalised intranet.

The connection to the intranet was slow and patchy, many companies remained disconnected from it, and those that were allowed to connect retained only a fraction of their customer base amid general economic stagnation across the country.

Hashemi, the communications minister, said a demand by hardliners within the establishment to move away from using the international web in favour of a domestic connection was a “bitter joke” that is not feasible to enforce.

He said his ministry estimates that the country’s online businesses could survive under a blackout for roughly 20 days, signalling that the state had no choice this week but to gradually restore internet bandwidth.

Figures for economic damages incurred by the blackout published by officials reflect only the visible costs and do not account for hidden losses, according to Abazar Barari, a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce.

“In the import and export sector, processes are heavily dependent on the internet from the very initial stages – such as price negotiations, issuance of pro forma and other invoices – to coordination with transportation companies and the verification of documents. As a result, the internet shutdown effectively disrupted foreign trade,” he told Al Jazeera.

“During this period, customer attrition also occurred, with the damage being particularly severe in certain food commodities, as many countries are unwilling to tie their food security to unstable supply conditions.”

‘They have no right to do this’

In a tumultuous country with one of the highest inflation rates in the world, numerous Iranians who tried to make money online to stay afloat are now deeply anxious as well.

From owners of small online businesses to teachers, chefs, crypto traders, gamers and streamers, people are taking to social media to ask others for extra support after the gradual reconnect this week.

Mehrnaz, a young video editor in Tehran, said she only went back to work this week after her company put her on forced leave without pay from the start of the protests in the city’s business district in late December.

“I was on the verge of having to move back to my parents’ house in another city. I’m only 25, and I hit near-zero for the second time this year. There might not be another time,” she said, pointing out that the first time was during the 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June.

Iran’s National Post Company announced on Sunday that postal deliveries experienced a 60-percent fall at the height of the blackout, mainly damaging small and home-based businesses that depended on mailing their products.

But beyond livelihoods, many in Iran are also angered by the fact that the state can cut off communications on command, violating the people’s right to benefit from the internet.

“They had the nerve to create a tiered internet and decide which type of use is ‘essential’,” said a woman who asked not to be identified for safety reasons.

“My child wants to search about his favourite animation movies, my mom wants to read news on Telegram, and my dad wants to download books. I want to go online and write that they have no right to do this.”

Tehran, Iran – Iranian authorities continue to warn of serious ramifications in case of military strikes by the United States, as more people are being arrested in connection with deadly protests amid a lingering internet blackout.

Tehran’s municipality on Sunday unveiled a giant billboard at the Enghelab (Revolution) Square in the capital’s central area, in an apparent warning to the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln supercarrier and supporting warplanes near Iranian waters.

The image showed a bird’s-eye view of an aircraft carrier with destroyed fighter jets on the deck and blood running in the water to form the US flag.

“If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind,” read an accompanying message in Farsi and English.

Top military figures on Monday reiterated Iran’s readiness to engage in another war with Israel and the US in the case of an attack similar to last year’s 12-day conflict, while the Foreign Ministry promised a “comprehensive and regret-inducing response”.

Speaking to reporters during a news conference, ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei also warned “the resulting insecurity will undoubtedly affect everyone” amid reports regional actors have been directly appealing to US President Donald Trump, who on Thursday said a US “armada” is heading towards the Gulf.

As the European Union ponders listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist” organisation following a vote in the European Parliament, Baghaei said Tehran believes “more prudent European countries should be careful not to fall into the trap of the devilish temptations of non-European parties toward such an action”.

The Iranian establishment’s remaining allies in the so-called “axis of resistance”, who took no action during June’s war, have also signalled that they may this time attack US and Israeli interests if conflict breaks out.

Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, the chief of the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, issued a fiery statement on Monday warning of “total war” in case of US aggression. Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem has repeatedly heaped praise on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, including during a speech on Monday.

The Houthis in Yemen also released a video on Monday that showed US warships and previously attacked commercial vessels, indicating that they could once again become targets despite a Gaza ceasefire deal that stopped the attacks.

More protest-linked arrests reported

Meanwhile, judicial and intelligence authorities continue to report action against “rioters” as the Iranian establishment blames “terrorists” working in line with the interests of the US and Israel during the nationwide protests that started in late December.

Mohammadreza Rahmani, the head of the police authority in the northern province of Gilan, announced 99 new arrests in a statement on Sunday.

He alleged that those arrested were engaged in destroying public property or acted as “leaders” of unrest both on the streets and on social media.

State media said a person “who incited people, especially the youth”, in online posts to participate in protests was arrested in Bandar Anzali, also in the north.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which says it has confirmed 5,848 deaths during the protests, reported on Monday that at least 41,283 people have also been arrested across the country.

Iranian authorities have not announced any official arrest numbers, but said last week that at least 3,117 people were killed during the protests, including 2,427 described as “innocent” protesters or security forces.

Al Jazeera cannot independently verify these figures.

Speaking during a meeting with top judiciary officials on Monday, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei reiterated his promise that “no mercy” will be shown when prosecuting protest-related cases.

He also expressed dismay at any calls for negotiations with the US amid what he called “an all-out war and economic blockade” against Iran.

“Some people portray all avenues for confronting the enemy’s aggression and coercion as blocked and repeatedly prescribe negotiation with a treacherous enemy,” he said.

Monitored internet access for businesspeople

Iranians across the country remain afflicted by an unprecedented total internet shutdown that has now lasted nearly three weeks.

A limited number of users have been able to tunnel out using proxies and virtual private networks (VPNs), but the authorities continue to block any proxies offering access to the outside world.

As with previous protests, internet access can only be restored through permission by the Supreme National Security Council, but the council has provided no timeline for reconnecting Iran’s 90-million-strong population.

In the meantime, the state appears to be gearing up to implement its longtime plans to enforce a so-called “tiered internet” that would only allow access to a limited number of permitted individuals and entities.

This week in Tehran, the authorities set up a small office to allow businesspeople who have identification from the Iran Chamber of Commerce to gain limited access to the internet.

Before being allowed to use the internet for a few minutes, they had to sign a form that committed them to use the connection for “business purposes” only, and emphasised they would be legally prosecuted if they “misuse” the opportunity.

A similar small office has also been opened for journalists by the Culture Ministry.

The rest of the population only has access to a local intranet designed to offer some basic services during state-imposed internet blackouts, but even that connection is slow and patchy.