impacted

It didn’t turn out to be a “Cruel Summer” for singer Taylor Swift: she and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, in a continuation of their ongoing “Love Story,” have officially told each other, “You Belong With Me.”

The pop icon, self-made billionaire, and self-described “Anti-Hero” announced her engagement to Kelce in an Instagram post on Tuesday. Sure enough, where there used to be a “Blank Space” on Swift’s ring finger, she was now “Bejeweled” with a large engagement ring (and we hope she doesn’t accidentally “Shake It Off”).

Swift surely knew “All Too Well” that the announcement would make “Sparks Fly” among her legion of fans (to them I say, “You Need to Calm Down”), but even in her “Wildest Dreams,” she probably never expected the news to affect the stock market.

But it did. Here’s how.

Image source: Getty Images.

Look what you made me do…to the market

In the immediate wake of the announcement, as fans were still trying to identify the exact cut of the diamond in Swift’s ring (it was a “cushion cut,” for those who are interested), there was a brief, otherwise-unexplained 1% pop in the stock price of Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG -2.54%), one of the few publicly traded jewelry companies.

As the afternoon wore on, Signet’s shares climbed higher in a rally continued through Wednesday and into Thursday’s premarket trading, when Signet’s stock briefly hit $95/share, up nearly 10% over the pre-“pop star pop” price. The Swift Effect was even more pronounced for Brilliant Earth Group (BRLT 8.55%), which soared from $2.17/share at 12:50 PM on Tuesday to close at $2.82/share, a 30% gain.

Even luxury brands only partially exposed to the jewelry market rose in the wake of the announcement: Movado Group (MOV 2.47%), which is primarily a watchmaker but does sell other jewelry items, and LVMH (LVMHF -1.43%), which owns Tiffany & Co., were both up more than 4% over their pre-engagement price at Thursday’s close.

Today was a fairytale

It’s not the first time that Taylor Swift’s legions of fans — known as “Swifties” — have collectively influenced the financial world. In July 2023, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book credited Swift’s “Eras” tour as being responsible for the strongest month of hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the pandemic. This mirrored reports from Cincinnati and Chicago, among many other cities, that credited the “Eras” tour for record hotel revenues.

So how did this happen? There was likely a noticeable spike in internet searches for various types of wedding rings in the wake of Swift’s announcement as eager fans tried to identify the exact ring in question (and possibly score one for themselves). That activity may have triggered certain traders’ algorithms to buy jewelry stocks…or perhaps there are just plenty of Swifties among the ranks of hedge fund managers.

The money question is, could this one-time pop in interest translate into a meaningful increase in jewelry sales, or lasting gains for these jewelry stocks?

Is it over now?

Unfortunately, it looks like the rally may already be fizzling. Although Signet Jewelers closed on Thursday at $89.86/share, which is 3.6% above its pre-engagement price, it had fallen significantly from its post-engagement high of $95. Brilliant Earth Group also closed lower on Thursday at $2.69/share, though that was also well above its pre-engagement price.

Getting engaged is a much bigger commitment than buying an album or attending a concert (although the cost of some resold “Eras” tour tickets could have funded an entire wedding and then some). Sure, it might be fun to dream about getting a ring like Taylor Swift, or to shop for one online, but even if you idolize Swift, will her engagement really prompt legions of uncommitted Swifties to propose? (Don’t get me wrong: I know the intensity of Swift’s fandom is strong…but that strong?)

Meanwhile, all of the aforementioned jewelry and jewelry-adjacent companies have significantly lagged the S&P 500 over the past five years: some by a little (Signet is trailing on a total return basis by about 35 percentage points) to a lot (Brilliant Earth is “Down Bad,” by a jaw-dropping 130 percentage points).

I’d classify those returns as not just in the “Red,” but redder than “Bad Blood,” and it’ll take more than a one-time surge of interest from Swifties to make me say anything besides “I Knew You Were Trouble” and “We Are Never Ever Getting Together.”

That said, whichever jeweler can be the first to mass-produce a Taylor Swift-inspired cushion-cut engagement ring will almost certainly have a hit on their hands.

The plan, called ‘Sovereign Brazil’, will include credit for businesses that rely on exports.

The Brazilian government has unveiled a plan to support local exporters impacted by the 50 percent tariff imposed by the United States.

Officials announced what has been dubbed “Sovereign Brazil”, a credit lifeline of 30 billion reais ($5.5bn) on Wednesday.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva described the plan, which includes a bill to be sent to Congress, as a first step to help local exporters.

Congressional leaders attended Wednesday’s ceremony, a first in months, in a sign of growing political support for the leftist leader in response to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Other measures announced by the Brazilian government include postponing tax charges for companies affected by US tariffs, providing 5 billion reais ($926,000) in tax credits to small and medium-sized companies until the end of 2026 and expanding access to insurance against cancelled orders. The plan also incentivises public purchases of items that could not be exported to the US.

The measures take effect immediately, but will only stay in place for four months unless Congressional leaders act.

“We cannot be scared, nervous and anxious when there is a crisis. A crisis is for us to create new things,” President Lula said. “In this case, what is unpleasant is that the reasons given to impose sanctions against Brazil do not exist.”

The tariffs have drastically weighed on sectors across the South American nation, including the beef industry. In July, when Trump first announced the plan, Robert Perosa, president of industry trade group Brazilian Beef Exporters Associations (ABIEC), said that the tariffs would make it  “economically unfeasible” to continue to export to the US market.

Trump has directly tied the 50 percent tariff on many imported Brazilian goods to the judicial situation of his embattled ally, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest.

In late July, the White House said that the order to impose this rate of tariffs is because of “the Government of Brazil’s politically motivated persecution, intimidation, harassment, censorship, and prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and thousands of his supporters are serious human rights abuses that have undermined the rule of law in Brazil”.

The former Brazilian leader is accused of trying to facilitate a coup after losing the election in 2022.

The WFP says aid is being cut by 60 percent for the most vulnerable groups, including pregnant women and disabled people.

The World Food Programme (WFP) has said it will need to drastically cut rations to refugees in Kenya due to reductions in global aid, including major funding cuts from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

Residents of the Kakuma and Dadaab refugee camps were beginning to feel the impact of food aid cuts on Monday as the WFP implemented a new assistance system there in which certain groups are prioritised over others.

The WFP said aid is being cut by 60 percent for the most vulnerable groups, including pregnant women and disabled people, and by 80 percent for refugees with some kind of income.

The two camps host nearly 800,000 people fleeing conflict and drought in Somalia and South Sudan, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

“WFP’s operations supporting refugees in Kenya are under immense strain,” Baimankay Sankoh, WFP’s deputy country director in Kenya, said in May. “With available resources stretched to their limits, we have had to make the difficult decision to again reduce food assistance. This will have a serious impact on vulnerable refugees, increasing the risk of hunger and malnutrition.”

“There has been a lot of tension in the last couple of weeks or so,” Al Jazeera’s Catherine Soi said, reporting from Kakuma.

“People were very angry about what WFP is calling the priority food distribution, where some people will not get food at all and others are going to get a small fraction of the food.”

These tensions boiled over, triggering protests last week, which left one person dead and several others injured, said Soi, adding that WFP officials she spoke with said the aid cuts from organisations like USAID meant they have had to make “very difficult decisions about who gets to eat and who doesn’t”.

WFP worker Thomas Chica explained to Soi that the new system was rolled out after assessments were conducted by WFP and its partners.

Refugees are now assessed based on their needs, rather than their status, said Chica. “We need to look at them separately and differently and see how best we can channel the system so that it provides.”

The impact of these cuts is severe amid concerns over malnutrition. The Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate among refugee children and pregnant or breastfeeding women in Kenya is above 13 percent. A GAM rate over 10 percent is classed as a nutrition emergency.

“Already the food that is being issued is quite low, 40 percent of the recommended ration, and this is being shared by a bigger chunk of the population,” Chica said, adding that stocks will therefore not last as long as hoped.

This reduction took effect in February and is based on a daily recommended intake of 2,100kcal.

With its current resources dating from last year, WFP will only be able to provide assistance until December or January, said Chica.

WFP said in May that $44m was required to provide full rations and restore cash assistance for all refugees just through August.