Hurricane

Oct. 31 (UPI) — Hurricane Melissa, now a weakened Category 1 storm, was passing north of Bermuda early Friday after battering the Caribbean over the past few days, forecasters said.

Forecasters said Melissa was at its nearest approach to Bermuda, where a hurricane warning was in effect and hurricane-force winds were being felt.

The eye of Melissa was about 150 miles north-northwest of Bermuda, the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 a.m. EDT update.

It had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, a drop of 15 mph from 8 p.m. Thursday. The storm was moving northeast at 40 mph. Earlier in its life cycle, the storm was largely stationary, moving at about 2 mph as it made its way toward a Jamaican landfall Tuesday.

Forecasts had indicated that the storm would pick up speed as it moved away from the Bahamas. It was forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland on Friday.

Hurricane-force wind gusts were being reported early Friday on Bermuda, as the storm made its closest approach. The outer bands of Melissa could pour an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain over Bermuda through early Friday, while a brief period of heavy rain was considered possible for the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Friday night.

Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday at about 1 p.m. as a powerful Category 5 storm, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. It was the strongest direct hit on Jamaica since records have been kept in the Atlantic basin. It was also the first storm to make landfall in the Caribbean this season.

The storm lost some strength as it traveled over Jamaica’s western mountains, but maintained major hurricane status as it headed for Cuba. It remained a hurricane when it reached the Bahamas.

Melissa is the 13th named storm and fifth hurricane of the season. The other Category 5 storms in the Atlantic this season have been Erin and Humberto.

In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and devastated the Bahamian islands, including the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, as a Category 5 storm.

The all-time highest sustained wind speed recorded in the Atlantic was Hurricane Allen at 190 mph in August 1980 over the Yucatan Peninsula before weakening to a Category 3 when it struck South Texas.

The most destructive Category 5 storm in the United States was Hurricane Andrew in August 1992, causing $27.3 billion in damage. Hurricane Michael, also a Category 5 storm, struck the less-populated Florida Panhandle in October 2018.

Hurricane Gilbert struck Jamaica in 1988 as a Category 3 storm.

Oct. 30 (UPI) — Hurricane Melissa, now a Category 2 storm, was heading toward Bermuda on Thursday evening after battering the Caribbean over the past few days, forecasters said.

Forecasters said Melissa was forecast to pass Bermuda, where a hurricane warning is in effect, on Thursday night.

The eye of Melissa was about 260 miles west-southwest of Bermuda, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. EDT update.

It had maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, and was making its way northeast toward Bermuda at 21 mph. Earlier in its lifecycle, the storm was largely stationary, moving at about 2 mph as it made its way toward a Jamaican landfall Tuesday.

Forecasts indicate the storm would pick up more speed as it moves away from the Bahamas. It was forecast to pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Thursday night and should become a strong extratropical cyclone near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland on Friday.

The outer bands of Melissa could pour an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain over Bermuda through Thursday night, while a brief period of heavy rain was considered possible for the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Friday night.

Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday at about 1 p.m. as a powerful Category 5 storm, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. It was the strongest direct hit on Jamaica since records have been kept in the Atlantic basin. It was also the first storm to make landfall in the Caribbean this season.

The storm lost some strength as it traveled over Jamaica’s western mountains, but maintained major hurricane status as it headed for Cuba. It remained a hurricane when it reached the Bahamas.

Melissa is the 13th named storm and fifth hurricane of the season. The other Category 5 storms in the Atlantic this season have been Erin and Humberto.

In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and devastated the Bahamian islands, including the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, as a Category 5 storm.

The all-time highest sustained wind speed recorded in the Atlantic was Hurricane Allen at 190 mph in August 1980 over the Yucatan Peninsula before weakening to a Category 3 when it struck South Texas.

The most destructive Category 5 storm in the United States was Hurricane Andrew in August 1992, causing $27.3 billion in damage. Hurricane Michael, also a Category 5 storm, struck the less populated Florida Panhandle in October 2018.

Hurricane Gilbert struck Jamaica in 1988 as a Category 3 storm.

TUI, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic have all cancelled or delayed flights and holidays across Jamaica following the devastating hurricane.

Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 hurricane, made landfall yesterday on the island with speeds up to 160mph.

New images coming from Jamaica show widespread destruction, with most of the island left without power.

As many as 8,000 Brits are thought to be on holiday in the country, with many taking shelter in hotels.

And tour operators and airlines have since been cancelling holidays in response.

TUI has cancelled all flights to Jamaica until October 31, although this may be extended.

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And all package holidays to Jamaica have been cancelled until at least the end of the week (November 2).

They said in a statement: “We’re working hard to assess the full impact of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and the extent of damage to local infrastructure including resorts, roads and airports. 

“We want to reassure our customers that their safety and wellbeing remains our absolute top priority. 

“We understand this is an unsettling time and ask that customers currently in Jamaica continue to follow the advice of local authorities and their resort teams. ”

Virgin Atlantic has only cancelled flights up until tomorrow although this is very likely to be extended.

Flights VS165 and VS165 have been cancelled tomorrow (October 30).

And British Airways has also cancelled a number of upcoming flights, with passengers told to contact the airline.

Both Norman Manley International Airport and Sangster International Airport remain closed.

Just remember that you must not cancel your holiday ahead of the your tour operator or you will be left out of pocket.

This is because the Foreign Office has not warned again travel to Jamaica – it is only when it is advised against, that you can cancel a holiday for a full refund.

Instead it is better to contact the tour operator and see if you can push back your flight if you are wary of travelling.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “The FCDO stands ready to help British nationals 24/7.

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“We have set up a crisis centre in the Foreign Office, including with support from the (Ministry of Defence), and we are also positioning specialist rapid deployment teams to provide consular assistance to British nationals in the region.

“Any British nationals who are there should follow our travel advice and the advice of the Jamaican authorities.”

Oct. 28 (UPI) — The U.S. military has evacuated about 1,000 nonessential residents from the U.S. Navy base at Guantanamo Bay in anticipation of the powerful Hurricane Melissa advancing through the Caribbean Tuesday.

More than 1,000 non-essential military personnel, along with their families and pets flew to the Naval Air Station Pensacola in the days leading up to the hurricane’s arrival, USNI News reported.

To prepare for the influx of military personnel, Pensacola’s Fleet and Family Support Center opened its Emergency Family Assistance Center on Saturday to connect them with lodging, essential supplies and other resources, according to a Navy press statement. Moving the non-essential personnel to Pensacola will minimize operations during the hurricane and make recovery easier after it passes, according to the statement. .

“The sailors and civilian employees here are dedicated and adaptable, making sure they accomplish our Navy mission -and right now that’s taking care of our Navy family from Guantanamo Bay,” NAS Pensacola Commanding Officer Capt. Chandra Newman said in the statement.

The remaining 3,000 residents of the base moved into temporary shelters in a community gym and a new K-12 school, The New York Times reported. Officials instructed residents to bring their own bedding along with coolers full of enough food and water to last three days, the paper reported.

Hurricane Melissa is the world’s strongest storm seen so far this year. It left at least seven people dead after it made landfall in Jamaica earlier on Tuesday.

Although the center of the storm has passed over Jamaica, the National Hurricane Center warned Tuesday evening of heavy rain “catastrophic flash flooding” and numerous landslides. Melissa is expected to move away from western Jamaica Tuesday evening, late moving to southeastern Cuba “as an extremely dangerous major hurricane,” according to the center.

Melissa is currently a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 145 mph.

Hurricane Melissa has made landfall in Jamaica, as forecasters predicted the Category 5 storm would likely cause “catastrophic” flash flooding, landslides and widespread damage, directly affecting up to 1.5 million people.

The United States National Hurricane Center urged Jamaican residents to remain sheltered in “your safe place” as ferocious winds and torrential rain tore into the western flank of the Caribbean nation on Tuesday, after making landfall in the parishes of St Elizabeth and Westmoreland.

“THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!,” it said in a post on X.

The National Hurricane Center reported maximum sustained winds of 295km/h (185mph). Director Michael Brennan said that a storm surge of 2.7 to 4 metres (9 to 13 feet) was expected, warning people to remain indoors when the eye of the storm crosses over the island.

“For Jamaica, it will be the storm of the century for sure,” said cyclone specialist Anne-Claire Fontan of the World Meteorological Organization, adding that rainfall was set to exceed 700mm (27.5 inches) – about twice the amount expected in an average rainy season.

Desmond McKenzie, a local government minister, told Al Jazeera that the island nation had done everything possible to protect itself. “We are prepared, but I don’t know if we can be prepared for a Category 5 hurricane,” he said, adding that last year’s Hurricane Beryl killed four people and caused “extensive damage”.

“As it becomes closer to us, we expect to experience stronger winds, more rains, and also some significant damage to the western side of the country,” Leiska Powell, an emergency services manager with the Red Cross in Jamaica, told Al Jazeera.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is warning that at least 1.5 million people in Jamaica alone may experience the repercussions of Hurricane Melissa.

Robian Williams, a journalist for the Kingston-based radio station NationWide Radio 90FM, told Al Jazeera that the wind gusts had “toppled trees and downed power lines”.

“Many of us here are out of electricity. First responders are actually out on the road just trying to clear the blockade,” she said.

Some 25,000 tourists are currently on the island. As they ride out the storm, the office of Prime Minister Andrew Holness has said that hoteliers are offering “distress rates” and shelter spaces for those stranded.

Holness said Jamaica had received calls of support from the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and France, as well as other Caribbean nations.

Jens Laerke, spokesperson for the UN humanitarian agency, OCHA, said the top priority was “to save as many lives as possible”.

“When you have massive flooding, one of the biggest problems is water”, he said, warning of “all kinds of health risks and epidemic risks” without clean water.

Jamaica’s South East Regional Health Authority issued a crocodile alert, warning on Instagram that large reptiles displaced by rapidly rising waters in rivers, gullies and swamps could “move into residential areas”.

Next stop: Cuba

The extremely violent hurricane has been barreling across the Caribbean, with winds of nearly 300km/h (185mph) recorded, making it the most powerful tropical storm recorded this year globally, according to an AFP analysis of US weather data.

It is predicted to move east towards Cuba through Wednesday, weakening to a Category 4 storm. Evacuation efforts have begun in anticipation, with reports on social media and state television showing buses transporting people to shelters.

Officials said evacuations were under way for more than 600,000 people from coastal areas, including Santiago, the island’s second-largest city. Authorities in the eastern Cuban province of Holguin will be evacuating more than 200,000 people. A similar number of people are also being moved to safety from the eastern town of Banes.

“This phenomenon is very dangerous,” Deputy Prime Minister Eduardo Martínez said in a statement from Banes, where he was located in what appeared to be a shelter. “It is unprecedented.”

A hurricane warning has been declared for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Las Tunas.

Forecasters expect up to 510mm (20 inches) of rain for parts of Cuba, along with a significant storm surge along the coast.

Melissa has also drenched the southern regions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with a tropical storm warning still in effect for Haiti.

The hurricane was forecast to turn northeast after Cuba and strike the southeast Bahamas by Wednesday evening.

The storm has plodded along at a pace slower than many people walk, hovering at 5km/h (3mph) before picking up slightly to 7km/h (4mph) this morning.

Meteorologists say this is particularly dangerous. “Slow-moving major hurricanes often go down in history as some of the deadliest and most destructive storms on record,” said AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist, Jonathan Porter.

“This is a dire situation unfolding in slow motion.”

Radio journalist Robian Williams says Jamaica is bracing for the worst, as Hurricane Mellissa nears the island. She says many refuse to leave their homes in fear of looting.

A US Air Force plane flew inside Hurricane Melissa on Monday over the Caribbean, revealing a rare weather phenomenon known as the ‘stadium effect’. Forecasters say the Category 5 storm is set to be Jamaica’s most destructive on record and is expected to make landfall early on Tuesday.

Oct. 27 (UPI) — Melissa, a strong Category 5 hurricane, neared landfall on the Caribbean island nation of Jamaica early Tuesday, where three people were already dead and amid fears of a humanitarian crisis.

The Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas were to be later threatened with powerful winds, rainfall and storm surge.

The storm was expected to move near or over Jamaica’s southern coast Tuesday — the first hurricane to make landfall in the Caribbean this season.

The island, which has 2.8 million residents, was already experiencing damaging winds and heavy rainfall, threatening catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. The Ministry of Health and Wellness has reported three deaths and nearly 15 people injured while preparing for the storm.

The hurricane was situated about 115 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 290 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 a.m. EDT update. It was moving north-northeast at 5 mph.

Melissa’s maximum sustained winds of 175 mph have not changed since the 2 p.m. update on Monday. Hurricanes are designated as the highest class when they reach 157 mph.

When Melissa makes landfall as a powerful major hurricane, it will be the strongest direct hit for the island since records have been kept in the Atlantic Basin.

“Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday,” NHC forecaster Richard Pasch said in a late Monday discussion about Jamaica. “The eyewall’s destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged power and communication outages and isolated communities.”

The storm became a hurricane Saturday morning and was upgraded to a Category 3 major hurricane by Saturday night, then a Category 4 on Sunday morning and a Category 5 on Monday morning.

On Tuesday night or Wednesday, Melissa is anticipated to make a second landfall along Cuba’s southeastern coast, while still wielding major hurricane strength. It’s also expected to remain a hurricane when it reaches the Bahamas. Bermuda also could be threatened.

“After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba,” NHC forecaster Jack Beven said in an earlier discussion.

“Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast period as it interacts with a large baroclinic low over the north Atlantic.”

Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica were expected through early next week.

A hurricane warning was in effect for all of Jamaica; the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin; and the southeastern and central Bahamas.

Hurricane watches were in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

There was a tropical storm warning for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extended up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-force winds tended outward to 195 miles.

Rainfall of 15 to 30 inches through Wednesday was forecast for portions of Jamaica and an additional 6 to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, with a local maximum of 40 inches, the NHC said.

“Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely,” NHC said.

Cuba is expected to receive rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts up to 25 inches, into Wednesday, “resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides,” NHC said.

Over the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall is forecast to total 5 to 10 inches into Wednesday with flash flooding in some areas.

Life-threatening storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall and are expected to be accompanied by large and destructive waves, NHC said.

Along the Cuban coast late Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a potential for significant storm surge of 7 to 11 feet.

And in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, there is the possibility of storm surge of 4 to 6 feet.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season and fifth hurricane. The other Category 5 storms in the Atlantic have been Erin and Humberto.

In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and destroyed the Bahamas islands, including Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, as a Category 5 storm.

The all-time highest sustained measure was Hurricane Allen at 190 mph in August 1980 over the Yucatan Peninsula but weakened to a Category 3 when it struck south Texas.

The most destructive Category 5 storm in the United States was Hurricane Andrew in August 1992, with $27.3 billion in damage. Hurricane Michael, also a Category 5 storm, struck the less populated Florida Panhandle in October 2018.

The U.S. is not threatened this time.

Hurricane Gilbert struck Jamaica in 1988 as a Category 3 storm. The island could be battered for several hours as the eyewall moves slowly.

Several Navy warships assigned to the Caribbean counter-narcotics mission have moved to avoid Hurricane Melissa, a U.S. Navy official told us. Now a massive Category 5 hurricane, Melissa is expected to make landfall in Jamaica later today into tomorrow with likely devastating effects. Meanwhile, it appears that the U.S. Air Force is sending another flight of B-1B bombers toward the region amid an ongoing U.S. military buildup.

“Based on current weather information and forecast models, the Navy is continuing to make determinations regarding Hurricane Melissa,” the official told us. “The safety of our personnel and their families is our top priority.” The storm is on a northeasterly track heading away from the Caribbean.

Despite the ship movements, the hurricane is “not expected to impact operations in the Caribbean,” the Navy official told us, adding that many of the eight surface vessels assigned to the effort were already operating out of the storm’s path.

The U.S. naval presence in the region includes the Iwo Jima Amphibious Readiness Group (ARG)/22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), with more than 4,500 sailors and Marines on three ships: The Wasp class amphibious assault ship, the USS Iwo Jima, and the San Antonio class amphibious transport dock ship USS San Antonio. Also deployed in the region are three Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers;  USS Jason Dunham, USS Stockdale and USS Gravely, the Ticonderoga class guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie and the Freedom class littoral combat ship USS Wichita.

While the Navy official would not comment about the specific locations of most of the vessels, they did acknowledge that the Gravely is docked in Trinidad and Tobago on a previously scheduled deployment. The destroyer arrived in Port of Spain to conduct joint military training exercises with the Caribbean nation, Fox News noted. It is expected to remain until Thursday, according to government officials from the two countries.

The exercises involving the Gravely seek to “address shared threats like transnational crime and build resilience through training, humanitarian missions, and security efforts,” U.S. Embassy Chargé d’Affaires Jenifer Neidhart de Ortiz said in a statement.

The deployment of the Gravely to Port of Spain comes as the U.S. is ratcheting up the pressure on the South American nation’s dictator, Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuelan officials, meanwhile, decried the deployment of the Gravely so close to its shores. Port of Spain is located less than 25 miles from the Venezuelan coast.

The conduct of military exercises in the waters of a neighboring country is “dangerous” and a “serious threat” to the Caribbean region, the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said, adding that it is a “hostile provocation” toward the South American nation.

Though the U.S. buildup is ostensibly aimed at curtailing drug trafficking out of Venezuela, the Trump administration has made no secret that it is pressuring Maduro, indicted in the U.S. on drug charges with a $50 million reward on his head.

As we reported last week, in addition to its assets already in the region, the U.S. Navy’s supercarrier USS Gerald R. Ford and at least a portion of the rest of its strike group have been ordered to Latin American waters. Strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats have now become routine, and the possibility that the campaign could extend to targets on land, particularly in Venezuela, continues to grow.

“In support of the President’s [Donald Trump] directive to dismantle Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) and counter narco-terrorism in defense of the Homeland, the Secretary of War [Pete Hegseth] has directed the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group and embarked carrier air wing to the U.S. Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM) area of responsibility (AOR),” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement on Friday. “The enhanced U.S. force presence in the USSOUTHCOM AOR will bolster U.S. capacity to detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities that compromise the safety and prosperity of the United States homeland and our security in the Western Hemisphere. These forces will enhance and augment existing capabilities to disrupt narcotics trafficking and degrade and dismantle TCOs.”

In addition to U.S. Navy assets, the U.S. Air Force is also contributing to the counter-narcotics effort.

For the second time in less than a week, it appears that B-1 bombers are headed to the Caribbean. Online flight trackers report that two Lancers took off from Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota. Shortly after 1:45 p.m., the Lancers were located south of Puerto Rico on a path toward Venezuela. 

HOGAN 11 flt (B-1B Bombers) wkg WASHINGTON CENTER on VHF joining up with GRIN 11 flt (KC-135) southbound toward the Caribbean and joining up with BROMO 21 (KC-46 & KC-135) out of MacDill AFB.

Audio via @liveatc and tracking via @ADSBex pic.twitter.com/N4rTIBI2oC

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) October 27, 2025

We reached out to U.S. Global Strike Command for more information and they referred us to the Pentagon.

Regardless, as TWZ noted following B-52 sorties over the region two weeks ago, there is a well-established precedent for employing Air Force bombers in counter-narcotics operations in the Caribbean. The range and targeting capabilities that the B-52 and the B-1 possess can be and have been employed to help spot and track suspected drug smuggling vessels. However, nothing we have seen so far indicates that these bombers are taking part in drug interdiction efforts and are more likely being sent toward Venezuela in a political message to Maduro.

Amid these military movements, a key supporter of Trump suggested that Maduro should flee the country.

“If I was Maduro, I’d head to Russia or China right now,” U.S. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) told the CBS News program 60 Minutes on Sunday. “His days are numbered. Something’s gonna happen. Whether it’s internal or external, I think something’s gonna happen.”

It remains publicly unclear at the moment what, if any action, the U.S. will take against Maduro. The Ford and elements of its carrier strike group is not expected to arrive in the Caribbean for about two weeks. Regardless of the timing of the Ford‘s arrival, it does not appear that Hurricane Melissa, despite its ferocity, will be a factor in the Pentagon’s plans.

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Hurricane Melissa, which has been barrelling towards Jamaica, is expected to be the most powerful hurricane to ever make a direct hit on the island.

The hurricane intensified on Monday into a Category 5 storm, the most powerful on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with wind speeds exceeding 252km/h (157mph). It was expected to make landfall on Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the United States. It said the storm will cause “destructive winds” and “catastrophic flooding”, which it forecast to worsen throughout the day and night.

Jamaica’s Meteorological Service added: “Life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning.”

How did Hurricane Melissa form?

Melissa originated as a cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of West Africa. It travelled west and evolved into a depression. On October 21, it reached tropical storm status.

Over the weekend, Melissa became a Category 4 storm as it made its way west through the Caribbean Sea.

Melissa is the 13th hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. On average, the Atlantic basin experiences about seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes each year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year with 13 to 18 named storms.

This is the third Category 5 hurricane of the season after Hurricanes Erin and Humberto.

Authorities use the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale to classify storms. The scale divides hurricanes into five categories based on their sustained wind speeds.

The highest is Category 5, which means a storm that has a sustained wind speed of 252km/h (157mph) or higher. Category 5 storms usually bring “catastrophic damage”, according to the NHC.

How has Melissa progressed? When and where will it hit Jamaica?

In anticipation of the hurricane, residents in Jamaica have been told to protect their homes with sandbags and boards, and to stock up on essentials.

The NHC said hurricane-force winds will extend up to 45km (30 miles) from Melissa’s centre and tropical storm-force winds will extend up to 315km (195 miles) from it.

Here is how the storm has progressed so far:

Monday, 7am in Jamaica (12:00 GMT)

On Monday morning, Melissa was upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane as it moved northwest in the Caribbean.

Tuesday, 1am (06:00 GMT)

Melissa will likely make landfall soon after this time. The NHC said because the storm is moving slowly – at 8km/h (5mph) – it will cause more damage.

“This extreme rainfall potential, owing to the slow motion, is going to create a catastrophic event here for Jamaica,” NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said.

Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 381mm to 762mm (15 to 30 inches) to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 203mm to 406mm (8 to 16 inches) for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday with rainfall totals of 1,016mm (40 inches) possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

Wednesday, 1pm (18:00 GMT)

Melissa is forecast to pass over Cuba by Wednesday before moving through the Greater Antilles and out into the Atlantic.

It is predicted to weaken to Category 3 by the time it reaches Cuba.

What is the latest on the ground?

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said: “I know that there are many Jamaicans who are anxious, who are very concerned, and rightfully so. You should be concerned.

“But the best way to address anxiety and any nervousness and concern is to be prepared.”

Jamaica’s Meteorological Service has advised small craft operators and fishermen on the cays and banks to remain in safe harbour until wind and sea conditions return to normal

“Leaving the island before the hurricane arrives is not an option,” it said. The main airports – Kingston and Montego Bay – are closed. Kingston’s airport is warning: “Passengers, contact your airline for rebooking. DO NOT go to the airport.”

Warnings have also been put in place for parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba, where Melissa is expected to cause similar damage.

Jamaica’s history of hurricanes

According to the NHC, Jamaica has experienced only one Category 4 storm, Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. It was the most destructive storm in Jamaica’s history and killed at least 45 people.

In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy was the first to make landfall on the island since Gilbert. It hit as a Category 1 storm.

In 2024, Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 storm, brushed the southern coast of Jamaica and caused heavy winds and rain and damaged buildings. It also caused the deaths of four people.

Oct. 24 (UPI) — Melissa was upgraded to a Category 4 hurricane as it made its way toward Jamaica, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday.

It is expected to strengthen to a Category 5 storm, causing catastrophic conditions for Caribbean nations.

The hurricane became a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph while moving west at 5 mph and positioned about 110 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 285 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, the National Hurricane Center reported in its 2 p.m. EDT update.

The storm had become a hurricane at 9 a.m. EDT on Saturday and was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday night.

It continues to gain strength and could cause life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in parts of Southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into early next week.

Currently, a hurricane warning is in effect for all of Jamaica.

Hurricane watch advisories are also in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince and for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Accuweather Meteorologist Alex Duffus warned that entire communities could be cut off from aid and support for several days.

“Melissa’s slow movement over the mountainous islands greatly increases the risk of catastrophic flash flooding and deadly mudslides,” Duffus said. “This can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, where a large number of people are in need of basic supplies such as food, safe drinking water, housing and medical care.”

A hurricane warning is in effect in Jamaica, while a hurricane watch is in effect for the southwestern tip of Haiti and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin.

A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.

“This remains a very serious situation, in terms of catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica, and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area currently under a Hurricane Warning,” NHC forecaster Jack Beven said in a discussion.

On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through into early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week and then head northwest in the Atlantic farther from the United States.

“It must be noted that there is very little practical difference in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when it moves over Jamaica,” Beven wrote in a discussion.

“Melissa should weaken as it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba, although it is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it nears Cuba. A faster weakening should occur after passing Cuba when the cyclone encounters strong shear over the southwestern Atlantic,” he wrote.

This would be the strongest direct landfall for the island since tropical cyclone record-keeping has been kept in the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical-force winds stretch outward to 115 mph from the center.

Rainfall of 15 to 30 inches through Wednesday is forecast for portions of southern Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, with a local maximum of 40 inches, the NHC said.

Eastern Cuba is expected to receive rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts up to 18 inches into Wednesday.

“Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week,” the NHC said.

Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall and be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There also is a potential for significant storm surge along the Cuban coast next week.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season, and it’s the first in the Caribbean.

This season has seen few storms, which have warmed the Caribbean Sea, and the warm water is potential fuel for stronger and more dangerous storms.

Oct. 24 (UPI) — Melissa intensified into near-hurricane strength and is forecast to rapidly increase this weekend into a possible Category 5 storm with life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides through portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

Melissa rose to maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving east-southeast at 1 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. EDT update. Melisa would be designated as a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph

Melissa was about 155 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 235 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

“The exceptionally warm waters, reaching hundreds of feet deep, will act like jet fuel – providing extra energy for Melissa,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said about Melissa. “The warmest water in the Atlantic basin is in the central Caribbean, in the direct path of this storm. Rapid intensification into a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question this weekend.”

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.

“Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct landfall for the island in since tropical cyclone record keeping has been made in the Atlantic Basin,” NHC forecaster Philippe said in a discussion.

A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.

Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane later Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

“Unfortunately, a large majority of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on Jamaica in about 72 hours,” NHC forecaster Robbie Berg said. “What’s most concerning here is that the island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds before the core — and strongest winds — even reach the coast.”

Berg said major hurricane strength is likely when it reaches eastern Cuba “but increased shear should lead to weakening below major hurricane strength by day 5.”

Tropical-force winds stretch outward to 115 mph from the center.

Rainfall of 15 to 25 inches through Sunday is forecast to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Tuesday with local maximum 35 inches possible across the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, the NHC said.

Eastern Cuba is expected to receive rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 into Tuesday.

Additional rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday in all the areas, NHC said.

Minor coastal flooding is likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week, NHC said. Peak storm surge could reach 5 to 10 feet above ground level near and to the east of where Melissa makes landfall, NHC said.

“This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves,” NHC said.

Swells are also expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba during the next several days.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season, and it’s the first in the Caribbean.

This season has seen few storms, which have warmed the Caribbean Sea, and the warm water is potential fuel for stronger and more dangerous storms.

Oct. 1 (UPI) — Hurricane Imelda early Wednesday was approaching Bermuda, where forecasters were warning to hurry and complete preparations to “protect life and property” before the storm arrives.

Its eye was located about 520 miles west-southwest of Bermuda, according to the 2 a.m. EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, which said the British overseas territory should be expected to experience hurricane-force winds from Imelda later Wednesday.

The forecasters said it had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and was moving east-northeast at a rapid 17 mph, though it is expected to speed up over the next few days.

“On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will be near Bermuda this afternoon or evening,” the NHC said.

Imelda, the ninth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, is expected to strengthen through Wednesday as it approaches Bermuda and could be a Category 2 storm by the time it nears the island.

Sept. 29 (UPI) — Imelda strengthened into a hurricane Tuesday morning as it made its way northeast toward Bermuda, where officials issued a hurricane warning, the National Hurricane Center said.

The eye of the Category 1 storm was located about 735 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. It was moving northeast at 7 mph.

Imelda, the ninth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, a slight increase over the course of the morning, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday update.

Imelda initially moved toward the west-north west, but the storm made a turn toward the northeast overnight.

“On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane should continue to move away from the Bahamas today and be approaching Bermuda Wednesday afternoon,” the NHC said.

The NHC said Imelda could bring damaging hurricane-force winds to Bermuda

Sept. 30 (UPI) — Humberto weakened to a Category 3 storm on Monday in the Atlantic, according to forecasters, who expected it to continue to lose strength over the next few days.

Humberto had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. AST update, a drop of 30 mph in the last 12 hours.

It was located about 265 miles southwest of Bermuda and was moving north-northwest at 14 mph, according to forecasters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles.

No watches or warnings were in effect.

“On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will pass west and then north of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday,” the NHC said.

Though the storm is expected to continue on its weakening trajectory, it is forecast to become a “strong extratropical system” in the next few days.

Swells generated by Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda and much of the U.S. East Coast for the next few days.

Humberto is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic season and became the season’s third hurricane on Friday morning.

On Sunday, it was joined in the Atlantic by Tropical Storm Imelda.

Sept. 29 (UPI) — Humberto strengthened slightly on Monday, bringing threats to the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, the National Hurricane Center said.

Humberto had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. AST update.

It was located about 340 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and was moving northwest at 13 mph, according to the forecasters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

A tropical storm watch was in effect for Bermuda. While Humberto is expected to miss the island, its residents could begin to feel the effects of tropical-storm-force winds starting late Tuesday, the NHC said.

“On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will pass west and then north of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday,” the NHC said.

The storm is expected to experience fluctuations in intensity over the next day or so, but gradual weakening is forecast after that. It is, however, to remain a “dangerous major hurricane” over the next few days, according to the forecasters.

Swells generated by Humberto will continue affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Bermuda through much of this week, and likely produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Dangerous surf conditions were expected to begin affecting much of the U.S. East Coast on Monday.

Humberto is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic season and became the season’s third hurricane on Friday morning.

On Sunday, it was joined in the Atlantic by Tropical Storm Imelda.

Sept. 29 (UPI) — Tropical Storm Imelda, which formed in the Atlantic on Sunday, strengthened slightly overnight, according to forecasters, who said recent modeling showed the risk of dangerous wind impacts along the southeastern U.S. coast was diminishing.

Imelda, the ninth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, up 5 mph from late Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 a.m. EDT update.

It was located about 130 miles northwest of the Central Bahamas and about 315 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, Fla., according to the forecasters, who said it was moving north at 8 mph.

“Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday,” the NHC update said.

“On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the northwestern Bahamas today and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this week.”

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Central Bahamas and San Salvador, as well as portions of the northwestern Bahamas.

Eastern Cuba is expected to see 2 to 4 inches of rain, while the northwest Bahamas could receive between 4 and 8 inches through Tuesday, the forecasters said.

“This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding,” NHC said. “Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.”

Coastal southern North Carolina and southeast areas expected to see between 2 and 4 inches of rainfall with a maximum of 6 inches through Tuesday. This could also result in flash and urban flooding, the forecasters warned.

Swells generated by the cyclone, as well as Hurricane Humberto, are affecting parts of the Bahamas and are predicted to spread to the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

The potential for swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, NHC said.

Sept. 27 (UPI) — Humberto weakened to a Category 4 hurricane Sunday, but remains a threat to the East Coast and Bermuda this week, the National Hurricane Center said.

Humberto had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, was located about 525 miles north-northwest of the Northern Leeward Islands and about 470 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and was moving west-northwest at 10 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported in its 5 p.m. EDT update.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical-force winds to 125 miles outward.

No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, but the NHS advises officials in Bermuda to monitor Hurricane Umberto’s progress.

Hurricane Humberto likely will retain its major hurricane status for the next several days and turned to the northwest on Sunday, and is projected to make another turn to the north by Tuesday, according to the NHC.

Swells generated by Humberto will start affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Bermuda beginning Sunday night, where the hurricane likely will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

The NHC shows Bermuda in the storm’s cone on Tuesday.

Humberto is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic season and became the season’s third hurricane on Friday morning.

Tropical Depression Nine could threaten southeastern U.S.

The NHC also is tracking Tropical Depression Nine on Saturday morning and expects it to strengthen to tropical storm status by late Saturday night, which would be named Tropical Storm Imelda.

The tropical depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was moving northwesterly at 5 mph while located about 200 miles northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba and about 105 miles south-southwest of the Central Bahamas, according to the NHC’s 5 p.m. EDT update.

“Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday,” the NHC update said.

A tropical storm watch was issued for Florida’s east coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County line north to Flagler/Volusia County line.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Central Bahamas and San Salvador, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of the northwest Bahamas.

Moving north-northwest through Monday, the storm is expected to track across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and approach the U.S. coast early next week, according to the NHC.

Eastern Cuba is expected to see 8 to 12 inches of rain with the potential for up to 16 inches in isolated areas, while the Bahamas is predicted to see 4 to 8 inches of rain, forecasters said.

Between 2 and 4 inches of rain is forecast across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba.

“This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding,” NHC said. “Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Jamaica.

Swells generated by the cyclone, as well as Hurricane Humberto, will affect parts of the Bahamas this weekend and are predicted to spread to the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

The potential for swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, NHC said.

Sept. 27 (UPI) — Humberto remained a major hurricane Saturday morning and is headed to Bermuda as another potential storm later threatens Cuba, the Bahamas and the eastern United States, the National Hurricane Center said.

Humberto, the eighth named storm of the Atlantic season, had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph as a Category 4, with additional strengthening forecast through the weekend, NHC officials said in a 5 a.m. EDT update. Humberto became the season’s fourth hurricane on Friday morning.

The eye of the storm was located about 375 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. It was moving northwest at 6 mph.

The forecast track has Humberto moving northward at a slightly faster forward speed through the weekend with a turn north-northwest on Monday night.

Swells generated by Humberto will start affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Bermuda this weekend, NHC said. They are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

“As Humberto gains latitude, a significant expansion in the surface wind field will likely occur while it passes west of Bermuda,” NHC forecaster Lisa Bucci said in a discussion.

NHC shows Bermuda in NHC’s cone early Wedesday as a major storm. Humberto will move eastward out to sea on Thursday.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect as of Saturday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical-force one outward to 105 miles.

Humberto became the Atlantic hurricane season’s eighth named storm on Wednesday. It’s the third hurricane after Erin and Gabrielle.

In August, Erin intensified into a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds spreading across a 500-mile area. It did not make landfall in the United States but caused dangerous surf, rip currents and coastal flooding along the East Coast, with the worst conditions in North Carolina and Virginia.

Gabrielle formed in mid-September and also became a major hurricane, a Category 4. The storm dissipated into a post-tropical cyclone near the Azores on Friday.

Tropical Storm Chantal was the only storm to make landfall in the U.S. — South Carolina on July 6.

By Sept. 27 last year, there were 10 named storms with one other storm forming later in September.

Potential tropical cyclone

Another storm of concern in the Atlantic is Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is forecast to become a depression on Saturday night and Imelda early Sunday. A hurricane is projected for Monday night east of Florida’s northern coast.

In the 8 a.m. EDT NHC advisory, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was about 170 miles northwest from the tip of Cuba and about 180 miles south of the Central Bahamas. It was moving northwest at 9 mph.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Central Bahamas and San Salvador, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of the northwest Bahamas.

Moving north-northwest through Monday, the storm is expected to track across the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the U.S. coast early next week. Eastern Cuba is expected to see 8 to 12 inches of rain with the potential for up to 16 inches of rain in isolated areas, which the Bahamas is predicted to see 4 to 8 inches of rain, forecasters said.

“Moisture from the disturbance will lead to a threat of heavy rainfall well to the north across portions of the Southeast U.S. and Virginia into early next week which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding,” NHC said.

Swells generated by the cyclone, as well as Hurricane Humberto, will affect parts of the Bahamas this weekend and are predicted to spread to the southeast U.S. coast early next week. The potential for swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, NHC said.